2019 Trend Report for Journalism, Media & Technology

2019 Trend Report For Journalism, Media & Technology Using and Sharing The Material In This Report

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It’s been a difficult year for journalism, engaged in bad behavior.” are thousands of incredibly bright, As of the publication date, The media and technology. talented, conscientious people Future Today Institute’s annual trend Meanwhile, it appears as though working hard in our newsrooms, reports have garnered more than 7.5 A sitting United States president has the platforms distributing news within corporate media, and inside million cumulative views. We’re glad repeatedly called media “the enemy content are reluctant to address the tech companies, big and small. I’m to see so many leadership teams of the people” who publish only “fake problem head-on. Facebook, Twitter also energized by the incredible all around the world using these news” to confuse and mislead voters. and Google have each made some technology on the horizon—it will trends as part of a formal, ongoing On the same day that more than 350 efforts to confront the spread of not only help combat the spread of process to reduce risk, harness new newspapers ran thoughtful editorials misinformation, however in the digital misinformation, it will offer creative opportunities and drive change within explaining that journalists are not the realm attention is currency—and we solutions to funding quality news. their fields. enemy, that the president repeatedly keep proving the value of political assaulted the free press on Twitter, vitriol, trolling and salacious content. I’m reminded of something Helen Regardless of what the next news arguing that “THE FAKE NEWS Keller once said. “Optimism is the cycle brings, always remember that At the same time, we’ve seen MEDIA IS THE OPPOSITION PARTY. faith that leads to achievement. the future is not yet written. It really the closure of even more news It is very bad for our Great Country…. Nothing can be done without hope is up to you and your organization. organizations in the past year, from BUT WE ARE WINNING!” followed and confidence.” I look at the horizon, You have the power to create your the Village Voice, to a number of by “There is nothing that I would and at the people working within our preferred future, today. regional GateHouse newspapers, to want more for our Country than true newsrooms, and I feel optimistic—but Interview Magazine. There have been FREEDOM OF THE PRESS. The fact I know there’s hard work ahead. layoffs everywhere. Tronc cut the is that the Press is FREE to write and Sincerely, Daily News staff in half, for example— That’s the reason we’ve put together say anything it wants, but much of and this time around, new digital this industry-specific report. I hope what it says is FAKE NEWS, pushing upstarts including Buzzfeed, Gizmodo it will help your organization see a political agenda or just plain trying Media Group, the Outline, Vice and opportunity as you plan for the to hurt people. HONESTY WINS!” A Upworthy have also been forced to future. Factor these trends into your week earlier, a stunning Ipsos poll Amy Webb reorganize. strategic thinking for the coming year, showed that 43% of Republicans and adjust your planning, operations Founder say that the president “should have And yet, I feel hopeful about the and business models accordingly. The Future Today Institute the authority to close news outlets year ahead. That’s because there

© 2018-2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 003 This is a robust, detailed report with 108 trends that cover many different themes and areas. The sprawling nature of this annual report was intentional. That’s because the future of journalism, media and technology is influenced by myriad dependencies. You cannot know the future of your field without looking broadly.

To meaningfully plan for the future, organizations must listen for signals actively rather than reflex- ively. It is important to view your field through different lenses, considering adjacent sources of disruption. In the coming months, we hope that you’ll spend time with all of the analysis in our 2019 Journalism, Media and Technology Industry Trends Report.

03 Welcome Letter 26 Real-Time Context in Machine 33 Proprietary, Homegrown 62 Distributed Computing For Learning AI Languages a Cause 07 Executive Summary 26 Generative Algorithms For 33 AI Chipsets 66 Decentralized Curation 08 Key Takeaways Voice, Sound and Video 34 Marketplaces For AI Algorithms 68 Interfaces 09 Methodology 27 Image Completion 34 More Consolidation in AI 69 Voice Interfaces 10 How To Monitor Trends and 27 AI For Seeing Through Walls Signals In Your Organization 34 AI For Deep Linking Everywhere 71 Monetizing Chat-Based 27 Predictive Machine Vision Journalism 12 How Your Organization Can 35 Making AI Explain Itself Take Action On Emerging 27 New Generative Modeling 74 New Video and Audio Story Trends Techniques 35 Accountability and Trust Formats

13 How To Use Our Report 27 Much Faster Deep Learning 36 China’s AI Boom 76 Teaching and Newsroom Training 14 Why We Include Scenarios 27 Reinforcement Learning and 37 I-Teams For Algorithms and Data With Trends Hierarchical RL 77 Adaptive Learning For 38 Computational Journalism Newsrooms 15 When, Exactly, To Take Action 28 Continuous Learning 39 Computational Photography On Tech Trends 78 Nanodegrees For Journalists 28 Multitask Learning 40 Computational Journalism 16 Our Trends Aren’t Trendy 79 Publishing and Distribution 28 Adversarial Machine Learning 41 Faceprints 17 The 10 Sources of All 80 Web 3.0 29 A Bigger Role For Ambient Future Change 43 Voiceprints Interfaces 82 Proximity News and Information 19 Artificial Intelligence 44 Blockchain Technologies 29 Digital Assistants Become 83 Digital Frailty 22 Natural Language Generation Ubiquitous 53 Tokenomics 85 The Case For Radical 25 Natural Language 30 AI For the Creative Process 55 Tokens For Smart Royalties Transparency Understanding (NLU) and Freelancers 31 Bots 86 Pop-Up Newsrooms and Limited- 25 Machine Reading 58 Immutable Journalism Edition News Products Comprehension (MRC) 33 Ongoing Bias In AI 60 Self-Sovereign Identity 87 One-To-Few Publishing 25 Real-Time Machine Learning 33 The AI Cloud

88 Abusing The Notification Laye 107 Wearables 119 Faster Connectivity With 5G 139 The Right To Eavesdrop/ Be Eavesdropped On 89 Journalism as a Service (JaaS) 109 Smart Glasses 120 The Media Business 139 Anonymity 90 Transparency in Metrics 109 Hearables / Earables 121 Media Consolidation 139 Trolls 91 Real-Time Fact Checking 109 Head Mounted Displays 126 Ad Blockers 140 Authenticity 92 Offline Connections 109 Haptics 129 Policy and Regulation 140 Data Retention 93 Audio Search Engines 109 Thinkables 130 Splinternets 140 Ownership 94 Mixed Reality and Video 110 Embedables 131 Leaking 140 Encryption Management 95 Streamers 110 Smartwatches 133 The First Amendment in a Digital Age 141 Constant Audio Surveillance 95 Connected TVs 112 Hardware 135 Security and Privacy 141 Leaky Data 96 WebRTC 113 CubeSats 137 Compliance Challenges and 146 About the Authors 96 Streaming Social Video 115 Drone Delivery Unrealistic Budgets 147 About the Future Today Institute 96 360-Degree Video 115 Increasing Patents and Calls 137 Differential Privacy For New Regulation 148 Disclaimer 98 Holograms 137 Ransomware As A Service 115 Drone Lanes 149 The Signals Are Talking 99 Virtual Reality 137 Hacktivism On The Rise 116 Sense And Avoid Technology 150 Companies, Organizations, 101 Augmented Reality 138 Targeted Attacks on Digital Universities and Government 116 Microdrones and Drones Used Assistants Agencies Mentioned In Our 103 AR Face Filters to Protect In Dangerous/ Hard-To-Reach 2019 Journalism, Media and Individual’s identity Areas 138 Strange Computer Glitches Will Technology Industry Trends Keep Happening Report. 103 AR as a Tool to Enhance Print 116 Drone Swarms 138 Proliferation of Darknets, Aided 104 Mixed Reality Arcades 155 Contact Information 117 Searching The Internet of By Cryptocurrencies Physical Things 106 VR For Marketing 139 New Open Source App 118 Intelligent Cameras Vulnerabilities

This is the second annual edition of FTI’s 2019 Journalism, Media and Industry Trends Report. It follows the same approach as our popular FTI Annual Trend Report, now in its 11th year. Combined, these reports have garnered more than 7.5 million cumulative views.

2018 marks the beginning of the end enough development, adoption and million of its citizens to gain so much of traditional smartphones. consolidation that it warrants its own, economic status and power within the full section. There are numerous op- next twenty years—we’ve never seen During the next decade, we will start portunities for media and journalism socioeconomic mobility on that scale to transition to the next era of com- organizations. For that reason, we’ve before. No other country is currently puting and connected devices, which included an explainer, a list of compa- building sweeping alliances that range we will wear and will command using nies to watch, and a cross-indexed list from Africa to Latin America and our voices, gesture and touch. The of trends to compliment blockchain Eastern Europe. No other country’s transition from smartphones to smart technology. We’ve also included de- government is racing towards the wearables and invisible interfaces— tailed scenarios in this section. future with as much force and veloc- earbuds that have biometric sensors ity as China, and this could signal big and speakers; rings and bracelets shifts in the balance of geopolitical that sense motion; smart glasses that Artificial Intelligence is not a tech power in the years ahead. This is record and display information—will trend—it is the third era of computing. especially important as China’s Baidu, forever change how we experience And yet there is a tremendous Alibaba and Tencent prepare to take the physical world. This doesn’t amount of misplaced optimism and on Google, Amazon and Facebook. necessarily signal a post-screen ex- fear about what, exactly, AI can and istence. We anticipate foldable and cannot do. You will see the AI eco- Mixed Reality is entering the main- scrollable screens for portable, lon- system represented in many of the stream. ger-form reading and writing. It’s diffi- trends in this report, and it is vitally cult to overstate the dramatic effect important that all decision-makers The mixed reality ecosystem has our transition away from traditional and teams familiarize themselves with grown enough that we now see con- mobile phones will have on journal- current and emerging AI trends. crete opportunities on the horizon for ism, entertainment media, and related media organizations. From immersive technologies. We need to pay closer attention to video to wearable technology, news China. and entertainment media organiza- Blockchain emerged as a significant tions should begin mapping their The Chinese government is investing driver of change in 2019 and beyond. strategy for new kinds of devices and hundreds of billions of dollars into platforms. The blockchain ecosystem is still artificial intelligence. No other coun- maturing, however we’ve now seen try on earth has the potential for 100

© 2018-2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 008 Methodology The Future Today Institute’s forecasting model uses quantitative and qualitative data to identify weak signals and map their trajectories The Future Today Institute Forecasting into tech trends. Our six steps alternate between broad and narrow Methodology’s Six-Step Funnel scopes, which include: identifying weak signals at the fringe, spotting patterns, interrogating trend candidates, calculating a trend’s velocity, writing scenarios and finally, pressure-testing strategies and recommendations.

Make observations and harness Listen for weak signals at the fringe information from the fringes of society or a particular research area.

02 Uncover hidden patterns by Use CIPHER to see patterns categorizing information from the fringe: contradictions, infections, practices, hacks, extremes, rarities. 03

Ask the right questions to determine Ask the right questions whether a pattern is really a trend.

04 Ensure that the timing is right for the Calculate the ETA trend and for your organization. 05 Scenarios inform the strategy you will Write scenarios create to take the necessary action on a trend. 06 Are your scenarios comprehensive Pressure-test enough? Is your level of confidence the future justified? Is the strategy you’re taking the right one for the future?

Answers What is the future of X?

Every organization should continuously monitor weak signals, track emerging trends and develop strategy for the future. However there are different approaches to that work, depending on the answers or information your organization is seeking.

Begin by asking two important questions:

1. Does your organization need specific, tactical answers to a question with clear parameters—or are you developing strategic insights?

Examples: What might subscription models and packages look like in the near-future? (tactical)

How will people get content using new forms of consumer technology in the near-future? (strategic insights)

2. Have you already defined general themes and a list of specific topics for your research?

Each research mode requires a different approach:

Foresight Mode information that are far afield of your Formulate a specific question. Map usual work. Practice active reading, The Four Futures: What mode are you in right now? your immediate, adjacent and theo- taking notes and sketching connec- retical stakeholders. Develop a weak tions. Do you need specific, tactical answers to a question with clear signals map using the 10 Drivers of Leading Questions parameters—or are you developing strategic insights? Modern Change along with the list of themes and ideas you’ve already When you know the topics you want made. Begin to look for patterns. to research to surface new signals, but Need Tactical Answers Developing Strategic Insights you don’t necessary need to answer a Discovery Mode specific question, ask and answer the following questions as you fill in your Foresight Mode Education Mode Formulate a specific question. Devel- op an initial, general list of topics us- weak signals map. Writing my strategic Staying on top of specific ing the 10 Drivers of Modern Change. 1. Who’s working directly in this plan/ developing trends within my industry Create a list of secondary drivers specific actions and adjacent to my industry specific to your question and industry. [node] space? Include those who are

YES Determine a broad list of key stake- already familiar to our organization, holders. Ask the Leading Questions those who are adjacently related, and (see below). Create a weak signals those who are theoretical (think very map as you go. broadly to include all kinds of different operators). Education Mode Using the 10 Drivers of Modern 2. Who’s been funding/ encouraging Change along with the list of themes experimentation? Discovery Mode Speculation Mode and ideas you’ve already made, focus your attention on the adjacent and 3. Which populations will be directly Pure research — looking Getting inspiration, learning theoretical stakeholders as well as affected by advancements in 5/10/15 for ideas, opportunities, from other fields, thinking adjacent industries and fields. Use years? possible disruption about the farther-future NO the Leading Questions to guide your research. 4. What are our addressable markets in 5/10/15 years? Speculation Mode Engage in speculative research across 5. Who would be incentivized to work

Have you already defined general themes/ topics for your research? your for topics themes/ defined general already you Have many different topics. Find sources of against advancement in general?

Our 2019 Trend Report reveals the Explaining why these trends matter. Think about the trends in this report and ask yourself the following questions: strategic opportunities and risk Rather than simply offering an 1. How might this trend impact journalism, media and technology and all confronting your organization in the overview of the trends that will of its parts? near future. matter, this report takes the This report can help prepare your additional step of explaining why and 2. What are the next-order implications of this trend on our industry? organization for the years ahead and how these trends will impact your 3. Does this trend signal greater disruption to our traditional business better position you to see disruption organization. In some cases, we have practices and revenue models? before it fully erupts. We encourage also included plausible scenarios, to you to use our report as a tool to help you and your team envision the 4. Does this trend indicate a future disruption to established roles and identify change and to learn how potential outcomes of these trends responsibilities within our organization? If so, how can we reverse-engineer new technologies might impact during the next 12-24 months. that disruption and deal with it in the present day? your organization in the near-future. The Report is also a good source Relating these trends back to your 5. How are organizations in adjacent industries addressing this trend? of potential new collaborators and organization. What insights can we learn? partners. Most importantly, use our Our 2019 Journalism, Media, report as a jumping off point for and Technology Trends Report 6. How are our known and theoretical competitors acting on this trend deeper strategic planning. is a practical resource for your (or failing to do so?) organization. It should influence your strategic thinking throughout the 7. How will this trend influence the wants, needs and expectations of year. our customers?

8. How does this trend inspire me to think about the future of journalism, media and technology and my role within the ecosystem?

9. How does this trend inspire my team/ organization?

10. How does this trend help me/ my team/ my organization think about innovation?

Each trend offers six important pieces of information for your organization.

The Future Today Institute’s 11th annual Tech Trends Report prepares staff, managers, executives, funders and startups for the year ahead, so that they are better positioned to see technological disruption before it fully erupts. 01 03 We encourage you to use our report as a tool to identify change and to learn 04 how new technologies might impact your organization in the near-future. The Report is also a good source of potential new collaborators and partners. 02 Most importantly, use our report as a jumping off point for deeper strategic planning.

Note: the trends featured in this annual industry report have been curated specifically for journalism, media and related technology fields.

We recommend using our 2019 Tech Trends Report as part of a formalized process to evaluate disruptive technologies throughout the year.

01 Key Insight 03 What’s Next 05 Years On The List 06 Action Meter Short, easy explanation of this What this trend means for you We’ve noted how many years An easy-to-read graphic trend so that you can internalize and your organization in the FTI has been tracking the trend indicating where the trend is it and discuss with your coming year. in our annual Tech Trends along its trajectory. colleagues. Report, which began publication It tells you whether the trend 04 Watchlist 11 years ago. This measurement needs monitoring, should inform is an indication of how the trend your strategy, or requires action. 02 Examples These are the organizations is progressing. Real-world use cases, some of and stakeholders most deeply which will sound familiar. involved in this trend.

Narratives help illuminate our possible futures.

In this report, you will find a variety of scenarios that fit four different emotive and the aftermath of nuclear war. It was such a successful exercise that their framings: optimistic, pragmatic, pessimistic and catastrophic. Some are set in approaches were adopted by other governments and companies around the the very near future, while others imagine the world after 2029. world. The Royal Dutch Shell company popularized scenario planning, when it revealed that scenarios had led managers to anticipate the global energy crisis The Future Today Institute’s methodology for modeling potential business, (1973 and 1979) and the collapse of the market in 1986 and to mitigate risk in policy and societal impacts of technology and science involves surfacing advance of their competition.1 Scenarios are such a powerful tool that Shell still, emerging trends, identifying commonalities and connections between them, 45 years later, employs a large, dedicated team researching and writing them. mapping their trajectories over time, describing plausible outcomes, and ultimately building strategy to achieve desired outcomes. The first half of the methodology explains the “what,” while the second half describes the “what if.” That second half, more formally, is called “scenario planning” and develops scenarios about the future using a wide variety of data across numerous sources: statistics, patent filings, academic and archival research, policy briefings, conference papers, structured interviews with lots of people, and even critical design and speculative fiction.

Scenario planning originated at the start of the Cold War, in the 1950s. Herman Kahn, a futurist at the RAND Corporation, was given the job of researching nuclear warfare, and he knew that raw data alone wouldn’t provide enough context for military leaders. So instead, he created something new, which he called “scenarios.” They would fill in the descriptive detail and narration needed to help those in charge with creating military strategy understand the plausible outcomes—what could happen, if a certain set of actions were taken. Simultaneously in France, the futurists Bertrand de Jouvenel and Gaston Berger developed and used scenarios to describe preferred outcomes—what should happen, given the current circumstances. Their work forced the military and our elected leaders into, as Kahn put it, “thinking about the unthinkable”

1 https://www.strategy-business.com/article/8220?gko=0d07f

We encourage you to use our Tech Trends Report High as the basis for strategic meetings — as long as you Learning Stage Listening For Signals commit to taking incremental action right away. As we research and test this new At The Horizon Many organizations prefer to take a “wait and see” technology, what can we learn and Emerging but bona-fide technology and approach after seeing new research, and that’s a apply to our organization? What must trends; uncertain trajectory and timeline; mistake. Your team must take some action, even we do now to keep ahead of the trend? ecosystem forming; market forming. if it’s small, to build momentum so that you may confront the future on your own terms. Sample Action Sample Action We recognize how difficult it is to take risks during Devote an all-hands day to investigating Assign one member of your team to be a time of economic uncertainty. However the future this trend. Invite people from all the resident expert on the tech trend. of journalism, media and technology requires departments within your organization to Have them send notes to the rest of the participate. Bring in outsiders for added team on a regular basis. courageous leadership right now. expertise. For that reason, the Future Today Institute created a simple framework to help you continually monitor Capabilities Building Stage Developing Ideas Stage technology as it moves from the fringe to the “Can we do it” “Can we How can we develop a new product or mainstream. Focus on taking incremental action How can we work to better understand the emerging tech and develop the expertise service that leverages the technology, often as you think more exponentially. Incremental to act? How do our key stakeholders and even as the market is still evolving? actions will position your organization to make constituents see this trend, and what are How can we assess possible risk and UNCERTAINTY ABOUT A TREND UNCERTAINTY smarter strategic decisions in advance, rather than their expectations of us? implications in a meaningful way? trying to play catch-up after a disastrous event.

This is our framework, and we encourage your Sample Action Sample Action organization to use it as you read through our Develop and ship a survey to assess how Facilitate a scenarios workshop, with report. well positioned your current team is to a goal of identifying probable and address this trend. Determine whether plausible outcomes. training is necessary. Low

Low UNCERTAINTY ABOUT A TREND IN THE MARKET High

“Does the market want it”

Before the description of each trend, you’ll see how many years it has been on The Four Laws of Trends our list. The trends that futurists research are never shiny, flashes in the pan. As All trends share a set of four conspicuous, universal features. you’ll see, the trends in our report are not trendy. (At least, not intentionally.) Instead, they emerge from weak signals at the fringe and reveal changes afoot. Real trends tend to take shape over many years. We use trends to help us • Trends are the convergence of weak signals from the fringe. see potential opportunities, challenges and plausible scenarios for next-order impacts. • Trends are driven by basic human needs. A trend is a new manifestation of • Trends evolve as they emerge. sustained change within an industry sector, society, or human behavior. • Trends are timely, but they persist.

Fundamentally, a trend leverages our basic human needs and desires in a At any moment, there are thousands of small shifts in technology— meaningful way, and it aligns human nature with breakthrough technologies developments on the fringes of science and society—that will impact and inventions. journalism, media and technology itself in the future.

© 2018-2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 016 To understand the future of one thing, you must widen your aperture. The 10 Sources of Otherwise, you’re essentially looking at the world through a pinhole. All Future Change Historically, the sources of all future change tend to come from the 10 primary sources you see below. When FTI researches tech trends, we do so using the prism of these sources. Technology is not listed because it underpins every facet of our lives.

01 02 03 04 05

WEALTH DISTRIBUTION EDUCATION GOVERNMENT POLITICS

JOURNALISM MEDIA

PUBLIC HEALTH DEMOGRAPHY ECONOMY ENVIRONMENT (our individual and collective use of social networks, chat services, digital video channels, photo sharing services and so on)

06 07 08 09 10

001 Natural Language 008 AI For Seeing 016 A Bigger Role For 024 Marketplaces For Generation Through Walls Ambient Interfaces AI Algorithms

002 Natural Language 009 Predictive Machine 017 Digital Assistants 025 More Consolidation Understanding (NLU) Vision Become Ubiquitous in AI

003 Machine Reading 010 New Generative 018 AI For the Creative 026 AI For Deep Linking Comprehension Modeling Techniques Process Everywhere (MRC) 011 Much Faster Deep 019 Bots 027 Making AI Explain 004 Real-Time Machine Learning Itself Learning 020 Ongoing Bias In AI 012 Reinforcement 028 Accountability 005 Real-Time Context Learning and 021 The AI Cloud and Trust in Machine Learning Hierarchical RL 022 Proprietary, 029 China’s AI Boom 006 Generative Algorithms 013 Continuous Learning Homegrown AI For Voice, Sound and Languages 030 I-Teams For Video 014 Multitask Learning Algorithms 023 AI Chipsets and Data 007 Image Completion 015 Adversarial Machine Learning HIGH DEGREE OF CERTAINTY TRENDS 001 - 030 • TENTH YEAR ON THE LIST INFORMS ACT Artificial Intelligence: STRATEGY NOW KEEP REVISIT

VIGILANT IMPACT IMMEDIATE LONGER-TERM IMPACT LONGER-TERM LATER The Third Era of Computing WATCH

LOW DEGREE OF CERTAINTY

Key Insight resents many things, even as the field There are nine big continues to grow. What passed as Many facets of artificial intelligence AI in the 1950s—a calculator capable (AI) have made our list since we first tech companies— of long division—hardly seems like an started publishing this report more advanced piece of technology today. six American, and than a decade ago. AI itself isn’t the This is what’s known as the “odd trend—it is too broad and important three Chinese—that paradox”—as soon as new techniques to monitor without distinguishing are invented and move into the main- are overwhelmingly between signals. For that reason, we stream, they become invisible to us. have identified different themes with- We no longer think of that technolo- responsible for the in AI that you should be following. gy as AI. “We are now solving problems with future of artificial In its most basic form, artificial machine learning and artificial intel- What You Need To Know intelligence. ligence that were … in the realm of intelligence is a system that makes science fiction for the last several About AI autonomous decisions. The tasks AI They are Google, decades. And natural language under- The roots of modern artificial intel- performs duplicate or mimic acts of Amazon, Microsoft, standing, machine vision problems, it ligence extend back hundreds of human intelligence, like recognizing really is an amazing renaissance.” years, long before the Big Nine were sounds and objects, solving prob- Apple, IBM and – Jeff Bezos building AI agents with names like lems, understanding language, and Siri, Alexa and Tiān Māo. Throughout using strategy to meet goals. Some Facebook in the that time, there has been no singu- AI systems are enormous, like per- U.S., and Baidu, lar definition for AI, like there is for forming millions of computations other technologies. When it comes quickly—while others are narrow and Alibaba and to AI, describing it concretely isn’t intended for a single task, like catch- as easy, and that’s because AI rep- ing foul language in emails. Tencent in China.

will accomplish a specific task. How software, which computers will soon Artificial Intelligence cont. you want the computer to get from start to do themselves. start to finish—essentially, a set of rules—is the “algorithm.” Overcoming Misplaced The Big Nine There Are Different A deep neural network is one that Optimism and Fear has many hidden layers. There’s no There are nine big tech companies— Categories Of AI set number of layers required to When it comes to AI, many organiza- six American, and three Chinese— There are two kinds of AI—weak (or make a network “deep.” Deep neural tions and their leaders have devel- that are overwhelmingly responsible “narrow”) and strong (or “general”). networks tend to work better and are oped a misplaced sense of optimism for the future of artificial intelligence. The anti-lock breaks in your car, the more powerful than traditional neural or fear. (And sometimes a combina- They are Google, Amazon, Micro- spam filter and autocomplete func- networks (which can be recurrent or tion of both.) soft, Apple, IBM and Facebook in tions in your email, and the recom- feedforward). It seems like not a day goes by with- the U.S., and Baidu, Alibaba and mendations that Amazon and Spotify out a new headline promising that Tencent in China. Just nine compa- make are all examples of artificial AI will cure all that ails us, or that it nies are primarily responsible for the AI, Machine Learning and narrow intelligence. Maeve and Do- will take our jobs, or that it just might overwhelming majority of research, lores in Westworld, the Samantha op- Deep Learning kill us all. The real future of AI does funding, government involvement erating system in Her, and the H.A.L. Machine learning programs run on promise excitement, but probably not and consumer-grade applications. supercomputer from 2001: A Space neural networks and analyze data quite how you’ve imagined. University researchers and labs rely Odyssey are anthropomorphized in order to help computers find new on these companies for data, tools representations of artificial general things without being explicitly pro- and funding. So do news organiza- intelligence (AGI)—but actual AGI grammed where to look. Within the tions—and we all use their products doesn’t necessarily require humanlike field of AI, machine learning is useful and services. The Big Nine are also appearances or voices. Systems ca- because it can help computers to responsible for mergers and ac- pable of general decision-making and predict and make real-time decisions quisitions, funding AI startups, and automation outside of narrow spe- without human intervention. supporting the next generation of cialties (DeepMind beating a world Deep learning is a relatively new developers. champion Go master) is an example branch of machine learning. Pro- of early, limited AGI. Artificial Intelligence grammers use special deep learning algorithms alongside a corpus of Is The Third Era of AI, Neural Networks and data––typically many terabytes of Computing Deep Neural Networks text, images, videos, speech and the like. Often, these systems are The best way to think of AI isn’t as a A neural network is the place where trained to learn on their own. In particular tool, software application information is sent and received, and practical terms, this means that more or spoken interface. AI represents the a program is the set of meticulous, and more human processes will be next era of computing, after the tabu- step-by-step instructions that tell a automated. Including the writing of lating era (very early computers) and system precisely what to do so that it the programmable systems era.

VIGILANT IMPACT IMMEDIATE LONGER-TERM IMPACT LONGER-TERM LATER WATCH

LOW DEGREE OF CERTAINTY

Key Insight Examples NLG To Grow Audience Natural Language Generation (NLG) Algorithms can rewrite structured Free, easy-to-use reading level con- has been used by media companies data into a narrative using natural verters have existed for at least five and marketing firms to generate language generation. Dozens of news years. They are most widely used by content based on large datasets. NLG and other organizations, including educators. News organizations like is powerful because it can integrate Bloomberg and the Associated Press, the Washington Post and the Guard- keywords, improving SEO and per- have been using Automated Insights, ian have partnered with Newsela, an sonalized customer communication at which mines data and is capable educational startup and reading level scale. of writing more than 2,000 stories converter, to provide text-sets and The technology is still evolving. NLG per second using natural language articles for educators. Newsela is an educational startup and machines are learning to translate generation to produce stories about Google’s search results ranking reading level converter that provides content into different languages and fantasy football, earnings reports and algorithm is a black box in terms of text-sets and articles for educators. generate content for different medi- the like. Narrative Science employs what factors improve page rank. SEO ums and in different voices or styles. its NLG system to build narratives out experts have suggested that adjusting One day, publishers may generate of big data sets and to help non-data the reading level of the page might content in different reading levels to science people make better sense have an affect. John Mueller, Senior improve search engine ranks or reach of what’s happening within their Webmaster at Google echoed this a wider audience. organizations. NLG will have myriad idea when in March 2018 he tweet- use cases across professional fields, ed, “Speak in the language of your assisting lawyers, politicians, doc- audience; present your awesomeness tors, consultants, financial analysts, in a way they can understand.” It is marketers and beyond, who will soon also worth noting that in 2010, Google incorporate our personal information introduced a search filter Reading as data points for narratives. Level. (It was removed in 2014 with little explanation.) © 2018-2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 022 TREND 001

NLG has been applied most frequent- What’s Next Natural Language Generation cont. ly in beats where lots of data is read- Instead of reading levels, publishers ily available, like financial services, might focus instead on reading con- sports, and weather. Publications such texts using data to determine how to as ProPublica and Urbs Media are serve and customize content based experimenting with NLG to find sto- on where the user is. If the user is ries and insight in public datasets and reading while walking, an app might government election coverage. suggest, “Would you like to listen In 2016, the Washington Post exper- to this article instead?” In contexts imented with customized headlines where search matters, NLG technol- based on user segments. This project, ogy will likely prioritize keywords dubbed Bandito, could be married and keep reading levels between 3rd with NLG to provide story head- grade (for stories related to finance, lines personalized at a group level. sports, business insights) and 8th NLG could also be integrated with grade (for more nuanced topics like chatbots to match brand voice and politics). style. The team at Quartz BotStudio Another aspect to consider is lan- has found that “it is clear that users guage. Not all languages are the same will gravitate to low-friction ways of to model. Many NLGs are built on getting the information and entertain- English and Chinese. Globally, this will ment they want.” impact how information is accessible to non-English speaking audiences.

Watchlist Amazon; Google; Washington Post; Newsela; Rewordify; Readable.io; Urbs Media; Quartz; ProPublica; Automated Insights; Bloomberg; Narrative Sci- ence; Associated Press; the Guardian; BBC; Baidu; Tencent; Alibaba; Micro- soft; Facebook; Apple; IBM

SCENARIO

Optimistic Natural Language Generation Pessimistic Scenario—Bias in NLG Reduces Scenario—New Audience and Revenue Growth Audiences and Depletes Revenue By 2023

By The Year 2023 Given what we know about machine learning techniques and current studies in the field, it is likely that NLG as an area of research will suffer from strong Given what we know about the proliferation of voice-enabled devices, bias in data with most of the training data coming from predominantly Cau- content-automation and the advancement of NLG technology, there will casian and English or Asian (specifically Chinese) languages. Not all languag- be more use cases for personally customized content based on preference, es model the same so in the US, NLG features will be optimized for English location, and even reading level. instead of Spanish or other languages. NLG might not understand different In a world where customers are brand agnostic, providing content in different dialects and accents or worse, it might conflate accents with lower reading formats will result in a competitive advantage for content creators. As levels. Globally, this will impact how information is accessible to non-English customers become more accustomed to web searches using voice, they will speaking audiences. begin to ask for general content with specific conditions.

“Alexa, please only provide news articles that are less than 2 minutes long.”

“Alexa, I haven’t had my coffee yet, please only give me the headlines.”

In family settings, parents may implement content guidelines for smart devices in order to control what their children are exposed to.

“Alexa, please only serve news information from these trusted sources: NPR, Bloomberg, NYT.”

“Alexa, when Alice or Billy ask for news, please only respond with sources from PBS Kids.”

Imagine a more personalized news experience using NLG, one that’s tailored for each person. This value add could grow audience and become a new kind of subscription service in the near future.

on the page, that information comes has always been efficiency, since until 002 Natural from? If you are an airline mechanic recently systems had to stop, pull Natural Language and you’re trying to troubleshoot a and parse data. New research into Language Understanding (NLU) tricky engine problem without further real-time machine learning shows that delaying a flight, it would be easier it’s possible to use a continual flow of Generation We are surrounded by unstructured if you had a computer read all of the transactional data and adjust models text in the real world—it exists in our technical documentation for you and in real-time. This signals a big change cont. social media posts, our blog entries, suggest likely fixes. Or, better yet, let in how data moves, and in how we on company websites, within city hall the machines figure out what’s wrong retrieve information. For example, digital records, and elsewhere. NLU al- on their own, by making all technical real-time machine learning makes it lows researchers to quantify and learn manuals and documentation avail- possible to translate speech auto- from all of that text by extracting able to them for reading and analysis. matically, even as multiple languages concepts, mapping relationships and That’s the promise of MRC. MRC isn’t are spoken. It can be used to improve analyzing emotion. NLU will augment focused on keywords alone. In the classification and predictions, prom- the work of professional researchers— future, a trained MRC system could ising more accurate risk calculations. those working in science and med- be transferred to different domains This could allow content creators to icine, law and policy, infrastructure, where no human has created labels more closely tailor content for con- agriculture, transportation, education or even a standard taxonomy. MRC sumers. Rather than using historic and beyond—allowing them to glean is a necessary step in realizing arti- data alone (Reader #1234 only likes deeper insights than ever before. ficial general intelligence, but in the sports stories), real-time preferences near-term it could potentially turn would add context to the recommen- 003 everything from technical manuals to dation (Reader #1234 might want Machine Reading historical maps to our medical records election news more in the next ten into easily searchable repositories of days). Comprehension (MRC) information. For AI researchers, machine reading 005 comprehension has been a chal- 004 lenging goal, but an important one. Real-Time Context in MRC makes it possible for systems to Real-Time Machine Machine Learning read, infer meaning, and immediately Learning The world is awash with informa- deliver answers while sifting through Machine learning describes a system tion, misinformation, and superficial enormous data sets. One practical that uses algorithms to analyze big thinking. IBM’s Project Debater is an application on the consumer side: if data sets in order to perform a wide example of how context can be used you perform a search query, wouldn’t array of tasks better than we can. in real-time learning systems. Project you rather have a system offer you a Over time, the system gets better at Debater can debate humans on com- precise answer than just a list of URLs those tasks. It learns, even though plex topics. It digests massive texts, where you can go to hunt down more we might not describe it as “intelli- constructs a well-structured speech specifics—even showing you where, gent.” One challenge for machines on a given topic, delivers it with clari-

the specter of audio fraud—what ty and purpose, and rebuts its oppo- happens when computers are able to Natural Language Generation cont. nent. Eventually, Project Debater will spoof our voices and natural sound? help people reason by providing com- There have already been a few early pelling, evidence-based arguments successes: in 2017, researchers at the and limiting the influence of emotion, University of Washington developed bias, or ambiguity. Debater is just one a model that convincingly showed example of emerging systems that are President Barack Obama giving a capable of learning in real-time and speech—that he never actually gave in using real-world context. real life. 006 007 Generative Algorithms Image Completion For Voice, Sound and If a computer system has access to Video enough images—millions and mil- Researchers at MIT’s CSAIL are study- lions—it can patch and fill in holes in ing how children learn new words in pictures. There are practical applica- order to train computers on automat- tions for professional photographers ic speech recognition. As humans, as well as everyone who wants to take we are able to master a new concept a better selfie Soon, if the foreground from just one or two examples; for of a mountain is out of focus, or if machines, this is a more difficult task your skin has an unsightly blemish, when it comes to language. Mean- another version can be swapped in while, researchers are training com- to generate the perfect picture. But puters to watch videos and predict what are the next-order scenarios corresponding sounds in our physical and implications? How will we draw world. For example, what sound is the line between reality and enhance- generated when a wooden drumstick ment? How much image completion taps a couch? A pile of leaves? A should be allowed without tacking on glass windowpane? The focus of this a warning label or disclosure? Online research is to help systems under- daters, journalists, and marketers stand how objects interact with each should be asking these questions. other in the physical realm. But future But so should policymakers. Image versions of the algorithms could be completion is also a useful tool for used to automatically produce sound law enforcement and military intelli- and sound effects for games, videos, gence officers—computers can now movies and TV shows. It also raises assist them in identifying who or what

human environments—and to interact compute power and the volume is in the frame. Given the bias we’ve with us humans by taking cues from of data that’s become available. In Natural already seen across machine learning our own body language. It could also practical terms, this means that more algorithms and data sets, image com- be used in retail environments, while and more human processes will be Language pletion could become part of a future we’re operating machinery, or while automated, including the writing of debate about privacy and our devices. Generation we’re in classrooms learning. software, which computers will soon start to do themselves. DL has been 008 cont. 010 hampered by the processing power of AI For Seeing Through computer networks. Just a few years New Generative Modeling Walls ago, it would take a month or longer Techniques to train an image recognition model MIT computer vision scientists have Autoregressive Quantile Networks on the ImageNet dataset. Today, with discovered how to use computer for Generative Modeling (or AIQN for more advanced equipment, Facebook vision to track data from what they short) sounds complicated but it’s an can do the same in under an hour. As call “accidental cameras.” Windows, innovative idea to help improve algo- computers become faster—and as mirrors, corners, houseplants and rithms and make them more stable. hardware architecture evolves—our other common objects can be used, The implication: this could quicken systems will perform tasks at su- along with AI, to track subtle changes the pace of advancements in AI—and per-human speeds. in light, shadow, and vibrations. The that could mean faster opportunities result? We may soon all have x-ray and innovations within journalism, vision. This technology could be har- 012 media and technology. nessed by reporters for investigative Reinforcement Learning work. and Hierarchical RL – 12 011 Reinforcement Learning (RL) is a 009 Much Faster Deep powerful tool for sorting out deci- Predictive Machine Vision Learning sion-making problems, and it’s being used to train AI systems to achieve Researchers at MIT’s CSAIL have Deep Learning (DL) is a relatively new super-human capabilities. Inside of trained computers to not only recog- branch of machine learning, and it will a computer simulation, a system nize what’s in a video, but to predict soon be an invisible part of every or- tries, fails, learns, experiments and what humans will do next. Trained ganization. Programmers use special then tries again—in rapid succession, on YouTube videos and TV shows deep learning algorithms alongside a altering its future attempts each time. such as “The Office” and “Desperate corpus of data—typically many tera- It’s because of RL that AlphaGo, a Housewives,” a computer system can bytes of text, images, videos, speech computer developed by DeepMind now predict whether two people are and the like. The system is trained (part of Alphabet) learned how to likely to hug, kiss, shake hands or slap to learn on its own. While conceptu- beat the greatest Go players in the a high five. This research will someday ally, deep learning isn’t new, what’s world. One problem with RL: agents enable robots to more easily navigate changed recently is the amount of have difficulty when they don’t have

enough supervision, or when they’re 014 015 Natural objective is to run scenarios for a very Multitask Learning Adversarial Machine long time horizon. Researchers will try If you watched the original Karate Kid Learning Language to solve those problems using Hierar- movie, you’ll remember Mr. Miyagi chical Reinforcement Learning—that In short, an adversarial piece of con- promising to teach Daniel karate—and Generation discovers high-level actions and work tent—a photo, a video, an audio file— Daniel getting frustrated with days of through learning challenges method- is encoded with a tiny modification, painting fences, sanding floors and cont. ically, in order to master new tasks at usually one that’s imperceptible to “wax on, wax off.” To Daniel, none of speeds we humans can’t imagine. This humans. It’s created in order to help these activities seemed related, and is important for non-techies, too: RL computer scientists adjust machine they certainly didn’t appear to help will improve the “intelligence” in our learning models. Hackers use adver- him with his stated objective: to learn AI systems, helping cars learn to drive sarial examples in a machine learning karate. Of course, it turns out that all in unusual conditions and helping system to attack it, causing the model of these chores were indeed connect- military drones perform complicated to make a mistake. In order for ma- ed, and Daniel’s repetitive learning maneuvers that have never been at- chine learning systems to learn, they is what helped him become a formi- tempted before in the physical world. must recognize subtle differences. dable karate champion. Researchers Researchers also use adversarial infor- are now training systems to learn like mation in order to train systems in 013 Daniel. When developers use Ma- how to recognize misleading informa- Continuous Learning chine Learning, they are doing so to tion in order to secure it. Adversarial try and solve for a particular task or At the moment, deep learning tech- information is sort of like an optical problem. They supervise the system, niques have helped systems learn to illusion and it’s typically imperceptible fine-tuning it and making adjustments solve complex tasks that more closely to the human eye or ear. It could be until the models performs as desired. matches what humans can do—but one pixel out of a million that’s the But focusing only on a single task those tasks are still specific, such as wrong color or is misaligned—to you, often leads to inefficiencies—per- beating a human at a game. And they all those pixels together might still haps there’s a better solution to the require a rigid sequence: gather data, look like a photo of a rainbow, but to problem than the method developed determine the goal, deploy an algo- a machine learning model, that one by the researcher. A new area of rithm. This process requires humans out-of-place pixel could render the research—multitask learning—helps and can be time-consuming, especial- image gibberish. When that happens, systems learn more like Daniel, ex- ly during early phases when super- an adjustment is made to the system ploiting the relationships between vised training is required. Continuous and it continues training. Adversarial various, related tasks in order to solve Learning (CL) is more about auton- images can be used to knowingly and problems better. omous and incremental skill building purposely trick a machine learning and development, and researchers system. If an attacker trains a model, will continue pushing the limits of using very slightly altered images, what’s possible in the coming years. the adversarial examples could then

need to do next, sometimes before be deployed out into other models. prioritize those decisions, delegate we even know to ask. DAs will be- Natural Adversarial examples can be embed- them on our behalf, and even to au- come more pervasive in the near-fu- ded—intentionally, or by accident— tonomously answer for us, depending ture, as device prices fall (look for en- Language into photos, multimedia stories, virtual on the circumstance. Much of this try-level speakers that cost less than reality content and the like. This is invisible decision-making will happen $20) and as systems get better at Generation important to keep in mind, especially without your direct supervision or interacting with us. Millions of smart as fake news continues to prolifer- input. What makes ambient design so speakers are being installed in hotel cont. ate in digital channels. It’s especially tantalizing is that it should require us rooms throughout China, while in the perplexing for search engines (Goo- to make fewer and fewer decisions in West we can expect to see speakers gle, Bing) and for any service that the near-future. Think of it as a sort in offices. automatically tags our photos (law of autocomplete for intention. We will enforcement databases, Facebook). interact both actively and passively DAs will soon be found outside of with our DAs, found in our hearables, smart speakers. Watch for new collab- 016 thermostats, cars and pockets. They orations between device manufactur- will listen and observe in the back- ers and DA platforms—you’ll speak to A Bigger Role For ground, sometimes asking questions— Alexa in your car and on your morn- Ambient Interfaces other times offering up text, audio or ing jog, while Google will soon be accessible during work meetings and Also known as “zero-UIs,” our mod- haptic notifications as needed, and at your desk. You’ll also start to notice ern interfaces are becoming more those will be decided by algorithm. DAs hidden throughout other con- and more like ambient music—able The real promise of ambient inter- nected devices, such as your home to do more for us with fewer direct faces is explained by Metcalfe’s Law, thermostat, your refrigerator and your actions, yet still able to captivate our which says that the value of a net- phone. Researchers at MIT, Stanford, attention. Digital Assistants figu- work is the square of the total number and the University of Texas at Austin Alibaba Headquarters, Hangzhou, ratively and literally automatically of people using it. As more people are building infrastructure so that China: The main building of the deliver you the information you need become part of ambient networks of our devices will be able to listen and Alibaba group headquarters. to know, just as you need to know it. information, the more use cases we’ll watch: They’ll know the places we Rather than relying on a single input see in the future. go, the people we interact with, our screen, or even a series of screens, habits, our tastes and preferences, we’ll instead interact with computers 017 and more. Then they’ll use this data to with less friction. In our modern age Digital Assistants anticipate our needs. Marketers, credit of information, the average adult now card companies, banks, local gov- makes more than 20,000 decisions Become Ubiquitous ernment agencies (police, highway a day—some big, like whether or not Digital Assistants (DAs)—like Aliba- administration), political campaigns to invest in the stock market, and ba’s Tiān Māo and Amazon’s Alexa— and many others can harness DAs some small, like whether to glance at use semantic and natural language to both surface and deliver critical your mobile phone when you see the processing, along with our data, in information. screen light up. New DAs promise to order to anticipate what we want or

VIGILANT IMPACT IMMEDIATE LONGER-TERM IMPACT LONGER-TERM LATER WATCH

LOW DEGREE OF CERTAINTY

Key Insight What’s Next from artificial narrow intelligence to artificial general intelligence. Can AI learn to be creative? In the “Break Free” is a single from the past few years, we’ve already seen album IAMAI, which was written, pro- Watchlist examples of AI systems creating duced and performed using artificial something from scratch—music, dress intelligence. Sony’s Flow Machine Alphabet; Rutgers University; Face- designs, bicycles, and more. worked along a human lyricist and book; College of Charleston; Sony; together, they created a popular song. IBM; Amazon; Baidu; Tencent; Alibaba. Examples YouTuber Taryn Southern used the Amper AI system to create her latest Last year, researchers from Rutgers songs. Aiva AI is a composer intend- University, College of Charleston, and “Break Free” is a song composed by ed to help film directors, advertising Facebook’s AI Research Lab created AI and performed by Taryn Southern. agencies and game studios create an AI system whose purpose was to original scores for their projects. Ma- make art. The result was so convinc- genta, a project from Google Brain, is ing that human art critics couldn’t being used to create art and music— distinguish between the AI-generated anyone can use its NSynth tool to works and those made by humans. generate new music. AI being used That research builds on an earlier in creative fields has some worried, study (from Rutgers and Facebook’s especially since some of the robo-cre- AI Lab) that trained an algorithm to ated works seem to appeal to humans identify a work’s artist, genre and as much as flesh-and-blood artists. style of art. Creative uses for AI is an important step in advancing the entire body of work and research, as we transition

VIGILANT IMPACT IMMEDIATE LONGER-TERM IMPACT LONGER-TERM LATER WATCH

LOW DEGREE OF CERTAINTY

Key Insight TexasTribune, Quartz, Mic, Los An- offered at institutions such as the geles Times and elsewhere. Imagine University of Texas to help students The term “bot” has become part of you’re a media outlet and you want and professionals learn how to design our mainstream vocabulary. Bots at to stay updated and report on earth- bots that suit specific needs. Media the most basic level are software quakes that happen across the world. organizations will continue to devel- applications designed to automate You can manually sign up for alerts op and refine bots to automate news a specified task. In the context of from the United States Geological related tasks freeing up time to allow journalism, bots can be divided into Survey (USGS), receive an alert, and individuals to devote time to more two main categories: news bots and have someone write a blurb about the important tasks. productivity bots. News bots can help earthquake…or you can design a bot. aggregate and automatically alert a Japanese media startup JX Press Using easy to program software, an Chatbots are being used by news- user about a specified event, whereas Corp developed a tool that leverages earthquake tracking bot could take rooms worldwide. productivity bots are tools journal- social media and artificial intelligence notifications from the USGS and cre- ism organizations should be using to to scour posts across different plat- ate or publish a blurb about the most help automate and streamline their forms and then write news reports. recent earthquake. The automation day to day operations. The major risk Look for more companies to harness allows news to go out in a timelier associated with news bots is that they the combination of bots and AI to manner and allows individuals to use are only as reliable as the program- create new kinds of content. With their time on more difficult tasks. ming behind it. People or groups with elections taking place around the world, misinformation bots will con- nefarious interests can use bots to What’s Next disseminate erroneous information. tinue to play a big role on Facebook, Bots will continue to play an im- Twitter and Instagram. We expect Examples portant role in journalism and other to see more companies touting tech content-rich fields. On the creator based solutions to address the issue. Many newsrooms have experimented level, seminars and courses are being with chatbots, including BuzzFeed,

Will Your Bot Be Biased? Bots cont. We are training bots in our own image. When developing your content and messaging bots, we recommend that you rate your work before deployment. Answer these questions to determine, in advance, wheth- Watchlist er or not you’ve accidentally encoded bias into your system. NewsDigest; Facebook; Google; Jigsaw; Twitter; Instagram; Chatfuel; Pandorabots; Twilio; Amazon; iFlytek; • What are the values of your organi- its answers are coming from? Are Slack; WeChat; Tencent; Baidu; Weibo; zation? (If you don’t have them in you able to include any evidence of Alibaba; IBM; Alphabet; Microsoft; writing, you have some work to do your reporting, quotes and data? Snapchat; Coral Project. before building your bot.) • Is your bot intuitive and easy to use, • How will you make sure that your either on a designated platform or bot reflects the values of your or- across platforms? ganization? • Did you assign your bot a tradition- • What if your bot interacts with al gender, ethnic or racial identity? someone (or another bot) whose If so, does it reference any stereo- values run counter to yours and types? your organization’s? • Does your bot respond to gendered • Is your bot’s purpose explicit? Will or sexist remarks? Does it respond people interacting with your bot to racial epithets or religious slurs? clearly understand what its pur- If it does respond, are the respons- pose is after the first few interac- es appropriate to people of the tions? group targeted?

• Does the corpus (the initial, base • Even if your bot is designed for set of questions and answers) another purpose, can you still use you’ve created reflect only one it to help people learn about their gender, race or ethnicity? Or only own biases or broaden their world- one side of a story? If so, was that views? intentional?

• How well do you know the training data you’re using? If you didn’t create it, are you certain it’s free of bias?

• Does your bot clearly explain where

Artificial 020 cussions. You, or someone you know, 022 Ongoing Bias In AI could wind up on the wrong side of Proprietary, Homegrown the algorithm and discover you’re Intelligence Every single day, you are creating ineligible for a loan, or a particular AI Languages unimaginable amounts of data, both medication, or the ability to rent an As we enter the third era of com- cont. actively (uploading and tagging apartment, for reasons which aren’t puting, the largest companies are photos on Facebook) and passively transparent or easy to understand. starting to compete for both mar- (searching online for medical symp- ketshare and mindshare. Companies toms, driving to work). That data is 021 such as Microsoft, IBM, Amazon and mined and used, often without your The AI Cloud Alphabet are releasing software direct knowledge or understanding, packages for developers—as well as by algorithms. It is used to create ad- In the past year, the corporate leaders unique programming languages for vertising, to help potential employers of the AI ecosystem have been racing AI applications. Uber released its own predict our behaviors, to determine to capture AI cloudshare—and to be- probabilistic programming language, our mortgage rates and even to help come the trusted provider of AI on re- Pyro, which it wrote in Python. It’s a law enforcement predict whether or mote servers. Amazon Web Services, move that signals likely fragmentation not we’re likely to commit a crime. Microsoft’s Azure, IBM and Alphabet in the future of the AI ecosystem, not Researchers at a number of universi- are all rolling out new offerings and unlike our OSX vs Android, and earlier ties—including the University of Mary- packages for developers, hoping to Mac vs PC camps. News organizations land, Columbia University, Carnegie make it easier and more affordable for should prepare now for fragmenta- Mellon, MIT, Princeton, University a wide swath of AI startups to launch tion, offering training for developers of California-Berkeley, International their ideas into the marketplace. and helping to develop workforce. Computer Science Institute, among This isn’t just about hosting. Each others—have started to discover unin- company now offers off-the-shelf AI 023 tended, but explicit bias in algorithms. software. Amazon’s SageMaker lets Part of the problem has to do with developers train their own neural nets, AI Chipsets the building blocks of AI: computers while Rekognition detects and tracks The standard CPUs found in our are trained using a limited initial set people, activities and objects in video. desktops, laptops, tablets and mobile of data, and the training programs are AWS Lambda lets you run code with- phones have certainly gotten power- built by humans. Often, the training out provisioning or managing servers. ful—but they’re not really designed sets reveal unacknowledged bias Microsoft’s Azure platform includes to meet the demands of machine hidden within us. As our computer both a machine learning studio, to learning. The problem with our systems become more adapt at mak- help developers build and deploy current CPUs is that they don’t have ing decisions, we may find ourselves solutions—and a toolkit for AI to run enough processing units to make all sorted by algorithms into groups that locally on connected devices. the connections and computations don’t make any obvious sense to us— required in the next era of computing. but which could have massive reper- Enter a suite of new processors found

Artificial on an SoC—“system on a chip.” Hua- 024 that the future of AI is already under wei, Apple, Alphabet, IBM, NVIDIA, Marketplaces For AI the direction of too few companies. Intel and Qualcomm are all working Just nine big companies dominate Intelligence new systems architecture and SoCs, Algorithms the AI landscape: Alphabet, Amazon, and some come pre-trained. In short, Most organizations can’t staff a team Microsoft, IBM, Facebook and Apple cont. this means that the chips are ready of developers who have unlimited in the US, along with Chinese behe- to work on AI projects and should time to create, test and refine al- moths Tencent, Baidu and Alibaba promise better speeds and more gorithms. As a result, communities (with significant fortification and sup- secure data. Late in 2017, Elon Musk of developers are offering up their port from the Chinese government). told developers that Tesla is also algorithms in emerging algorithm On the investment side, Intel Capi- working on its own custom AI hard- marketplaces. Algorithmia is now the tal, Google Ventures, GE Ventures, ware chips. Alphabet’s chip is called largest public marketplace for algo- Samsung Ventures, Tencent and a Tensor Processing Unit (or TPU), rithms, where developers can upload In-Q-Tel lead. As with any technology, and was specifically built for the deep their work to the cloud and receive when just a few companies dominate learning branch of AI. It is designed to payment when others pay to access the field, they tend to monopolize work with the company’s TensorFlow it. Decentralized is a marketplace for both talent and intellectual property. system. For reference, TPUs are what machine learning algos, while DataXu They’re also partnering to build on was used in the famous AlphaGo offers a marketplace for its propri- each others’ work. When it comes to match between the DeepMind system etary algorithms. Amazon, Microsoft, the future of AI, we should ask wheth- and a world Go champion. Salesforce, Google and IBM all offer er consolidation makes sense for the greater good, and whether compe- While marketing pre-trained chips to algorithm marketplaces for their tition—and therefore access—will businesses will speed up commer- frameworks and services. Quantiacs eventually be hindered as we’ve seen cialization and as a result will further allows developers to build algorithmic in other fields such as telecommuni- R&D, the challenge, of course, is that trading systems, and it matches their cations and cable. developers might need to wrestle algorithms up with capital from insti- with different frameworks in the tutional investors. PrecisionHawk has near-future, especially if the various launched a marketplace for predictive 026 device manufacturers all decide to agriculture algos. A number of other AI For Deep Linking start creating unique protocols. We networks, such as Nara Logics and anticipate an eventual convergence, Clarifai offer tools for developers to Everywhere pitting just a few companies—and build deep learning into any applica- Deep mobile linking has been around their SoCs and languages—against tion. since the beginning of smartphones, each other. and it makes it easier to find and 025 share data across all of the apps in More Consolidation in AI your phone. There are three kinds of deep links: traditional, deferred and Some in the AI ecosystem now worry contextual. Traditional deep links re-

route you from one app or site (such debates about accountability as well. divulging any personal data used. In Artificial as a link posted in Twitter) directly to One big challenge is that offering addition, hiring an ethicist to work the app, as long as you have that app such transparency could reveal the directly with managers and develop- Intelligence installed. Deferred deep links either highly lucrative secret sauce of com- ers, as well as greatly diversifying the link straight to content if the app is mercial products. Another challenge: pool of developers to include people cont. installed, or to an app store for you asking the systems to simultaneously of different races, ethnicities and to download the app first. Contextual explain their decision-making process genders, will solve for inherent bias in deep links offer much more robust could degrade the speed and quality AI systems. information—they take you from site of output. Imagine sitting beside a to app, app to site, or app to app, and genius mathematician who gives you they can also offer personalized infor- correct answers—and then asking her mation. For example, when you land to stop and show her work, over and at the airport, you might find that over again. your airline app sends you a link to Uber. With advancements in machine 028 learning, app-to-app experiences that are tailored to the habits of individual Accountability and Trust users should become more ubiqui- We will soon reach a point when we tous. will no longer be able to tell if a data set has been tampered with, either in- 027 tentionally or accidentally. AI systems rely on our trust. If we no longer trust Making AI Explain Itself the outcome, decades of research You’ve undoubtedly heard someone and technological advancement argue that AI is becoming a “black will be for naught. Leaders in every box”—that even those researchers sector—government, business, the working in the field don’t understand nonprofit world and so on—must have how our newest systems work. That’s confidence in the data and algorithms not entirely true, however there is used. Building trust and accountabil- growing concern voiced by computer ity is a matter of showing the work and cognitive scientists, journalists performed. This is a complicated pro- and legal scholars who argue that AI cess, as understandably corporations, systems shouldn’t be so secretive. Go- government offices, law enforcement ing forward, we will debate whether agencies and other organizations and how AI should be able to explain want to keep data private. Com- its decisions and how to offer more mitting to transparency in method transparency. There will be numerous would create trust without necessarily

detect patterns used in everything investment globally. In April, Sense- 029 from education and manufacturing Artificial Time earned a $4.5 billion valuation, China’s AI Boom to retail and military applications. making it the world’s most valuable AI The Chinese startup Megvii Face++, Intelligence The development of AI is our modern startup. Meanwhile, Chinese research- for instance, is pioneering faceprint version of an arms race. Right now, ers hold five times the number of technologies. Faceprints are a newer cont. China is laying the groundwork to AI-related patents compared to their form of biometric authentication that become the world’s unchallenged AI counterparts in the U.S. use the unique features of our faces— hegemon. The country’s massive, population— our bone structure, skin color, even In just the past few years, China has nearing 1.4 billion people—offers capillaries—to identify us. Faceprints made tremendous leaps in the field researchers and startups there com- are the new fingerprints, and they’re of AI. It has promised to become “the mand of what may be the most valu- secure enough to be used for financial world’s primary AI innovation cen- able natural resource in the future— transactions—and they are used by ter” by 2030, and as a nation, China human data—without the privacy and China’s police force for widespread is already making serious progress security restrictions common in much surveillance. towards that goal. China-based AI of the rest of the world. If data is the China is quietly weaponizing AI, too. startups now account for 48% of all new oil, then China is the new OPEC. China’s People Liberation Army is Alibaba, China’s version of Amazon, catching up to the U.S. when it comes will invest $15 billion into AI research to military applications, using AI for over the next three years, plant- things like spotting hidden images ing research centers in seven cities on drones. The military is equipping worldwide, including San Mateo, Calif., helicopters and jet fighters with AI. and Bellevue, Wash. Baidu (a Chi- Government leaders created a top-se- nese search-engine company often cret military lab—a Chinese version likened to Google) established an AI of DARPA in the US—and is building research center in the Silicon Valley, billion-dollar AI national laboratories. and Tencent (developer of the me- China’s military is achieving remark- ga-popular messaging app WeChat) able AI successes, including a recent began hunting for American talent test of “swarm intelligence,” that can when it opened an AI lab in Seattle automate dozens of armed drones. last year. It has since upped its stakes No other country’s government is rac- in companies like Tesla and Snap. The ing towards the future with as much payoff for the Chinese is not just a concentrated force and velocity as typical return on investment—Chinese China. The country’s extraordinary in- firms expect IP as well. vestments in AI could signal big shifts The kind of rich data the Chinese in the balance of geopolitical power in are mining can be used to train AI to the years ahead.

VIGILANT IMPACT IMMEDIATE LONGER-TERM IMPACT LONGER-TERM LATER and Data WATCH

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Key Insight quires a special skills set. Investigating technological advancement will be for algorithms has never been more im- naught. Building trust and account- With the increased use of data and portant than it is now. A report from ability is a matter of showing the work algorithms powering our everyday the Reuters Institute for the Study of performed. This is a complicated pro- lives, special-ops teams will deploy to Journalism at Oxford revealed that in cess, as understandably news orga- investigate AI. the U.S., 41 % of those surveyed said nizations would want to keep certain the government should do more to data and reporting methods private. Examples make it easier to detect fake informa- The Cambridge Analytica scandal tion online, compared to 61 percent in Watchlist proved how vulnerable we are to the United Kingdom and France and Brown Institute at Columbia Univer- misinformation created by and spread more than 70 percent in Spain and Cambridge Analytica and Facebook sity; Macromedia University of Ap- algorithmically. Some newsrooms South Korea. have seeded mistrust of algorithms plied Sciences; Tow Center for Digital are now reporting on the algorithms and digital content. Journalism at Columbia University; themselves. Reporters at the New What’s Next AlgorithmWatch.org; ProPublica; Phil- York Times, Wall Street Journal, Pro- New techniques in AI—generative ip Merrill College of Journalism at the Publica and Washington Post have adversarial networks and adversarial University of Maryland; Media Change been applying the core practices and machine learning, for example—are and Innovation Division at the Uni- skills of reporting to investigating making it easier to trick both ma- versity of Zurich; Annenberg School algorithms. chines and humans. We will soon of Communication & Journalism and As technology advances, transparen- reach a point when we will no longer the University of Southern California; cy in our systems grows murkier. Un- be able to tell if a data set has been Washington Post; New York Times; derstanding where information comes tampered with, either intentionally Wall Street Journal; National Pub- from, how it’s spread, and the impact or accidentally. AI systems rely on lic Radio; Investigative Reporters & it has—not to mention the outcomes our trust. If we no longer trust the Editors; National Institute for Comput- of algorithmic decision-making—re- outcome, decades of research and er-Assisted Reporting.

031 Computational Photography

032 Computational Journalism

033 Faceprints

034 Voiceprints HIGH DEGREE OF CERTAINTY TREND 031 • FOURTH YEAR ON THE LIST INFORMS ACT Computational STRATEGY NOW KEEP REVISIT

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Key Insight to change the composition of their Watchlist photographs in real time. Photos are Computational photography is the MIT’s CSAIL; MIT’s Media Lab; Nvidia; taken in a stack, and then rendered convergence of computer vision, University of California-Santa Barbara; with multiple views. This would allow computer graphics, the internet and Google; Apple; Samsung; Facebook; photographers to change perspective photography. Rather than relying on Synopsys; Industrial Light and Mag- and the relative size of objects within optical processes alone, it uses digital ic; LG; Huawei; Morpho; Qualcomm; a photo after it has been taken. Other capturing and processing techniques Stanford University Computational use cases of computational photog- to capture real life. Imaging Lab; the Gcam team at Goo- raphy include seamlessly removing or gle Research. adding objects to scenes, changing Examples shadows and reflections, and the like. Alex Berg, an associate professor at Everyone with a smartphone now has Meanwhile, MIT’s CSAIL and Google UNC Chapel Hill, shows image com- access to computational photography developed a technique that now au- positing and in-painting using gradi- tools. In its iPhones, Apple uses com- tomatically retouches and enhances ent domain processing. putational photography to achieve the photos we take with our mobile a shallow depth of field, while Face- phones. Clearly there are ethical book corrects any 360-degree photos implications here for journalists—how you upload. much editing should be allowed and under what circumstances? Likewise, What’s Next journalists should develop techniques to reveal how much editing has been New research from Nvidia and the done to a photo—either intentionally University of California-Santa Barbara or automatically—before using them reveal a computational zoom tech- for reporting or in stories. nique, which allows photographers

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Key Insight ing journalists to combine what they nalists with complimentary skills sets. find in the data and then see the con- There are a host of stories waiting to What are the ways in which data and nections between facts, keywords and be discovered, written and produced. algorithms can enhance reporting? concepts. In this way, they can reveal Computer Assisted Reporting (or interconnected relationships between Watchlist CAR, as its known by industry profes- people and organizations that they sionals) is an investigative journalism Google; Bing; Apple; Microsoft; Neura; might not have otherwise seen. technique. Reporters find, clean and Investigative Reporters & Editors; Na- mine public records and documents, One modality is to harness the data tional Institute for Computer-Assisted crunch data and uncover hidden from a crowd in a technique known as Reporting; Coral Project; Stanford stories. Aided by machine learning “crowdlearning.” Crowdlearning is a Computational Journalism Lab; Duke Neura uses machine learning algo- algorithms and AI, computational computational journalism technique University; University of British Co- rithms to analyze sensor data to cre- journalism is the evolution of CAR. that queries our passive data—our lumbia; University of Texas at Austin; ate insights about end-user real-world mobile and online activity, our pub- Brown Institute at Columbia Universi- experiences. Examples lic health records, our locations—to ty; Tow Center for Digital Journalism learn or understand something new. at Columbia University; Philip Merrill It’s one thing to find and mine pub- One company making good use of College of Journalism at the Universi- lic data—analyzing what’s there, and this technique is Neura, an AI-start- ty of Maryland; Media Change and In- connecting the seemingly uncon- up that learns from a broad spec- novation Division at the University of nectable dots, is another challenge trum real-world and digital user data Zurich; Annenberg School of Commu- entirely. Computational journalism throughout the day. nication & Journalism and the Univer- techniques such as multi-language sity of Southern California; Wall Street indexing, automated reporting, entity What’s Next Journal; New York Times; Washington extraction, algorithmic visualization, Post; Tamedia; ProPublica; National multidimensional analysis of data sets, We anticipate increased demand in Public Radio. and flexible data scraping are allow- computational journalism and jour-

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Key Insight a faceprint, rather than a key fob. Olympics. Chinese startup Megvii Researchers in Japan and China are Face++, supported heavily with sov- Advanced computing systems can working on representation models ereign wealth funds from both China now use unique features of our fac- that require only a portion of your and Russia, is pioneering faceprint es—our bone structure, skin color, face, even in low light, to accurately technologies that are secure enough even capillaries —to identify us. Face- predict someone’s identity—even as to be used for financial transactions. prints are the new fingerprints. they change their hairstyles, get plas- Face++ is also being used by China’s tic surgery or grow a beard. police force for widespread surveil- Examples lance. Unlike fingerprinting or iris/ ret- Faceprints are a newer form of What’s Next inal scanning, which are difficult to do The stages of facial alignment used biometric authentication. In 2014, without someone’s direct knowledge, in a Facebook study on deep learning German researchers are working to Facebook announced its “Deep- faceprints can be taken surreptitious- and facial recognition. create thermal faceprints by taking Face” software, which was capable ly, even from far away. heat maps of our faces and using of recognizing the people in photos machine vision to recognize patterns. We anticipate legal challenges, at with 97% accuracy (that’s about the Their technology can accurately least here in the U.S. In 2017, a fed- same accuracy as humans). Saks Fifth identify a face—and in under 35 mil- eral judge allowed a class-action Avenue is one example of a luxury liseconds, regardless of the amount suit brought against Shutterfly for store that’s now using faceprints to of lighting or the facial expressions allegedly violating the Illinois Biomet- track VIP customers. Last year, Apple people make. Researchers at NEC in ric Information Privacy Act, which introduced its Face ID system with Japan are taking multiple 3D scans to requires companies to secure written the iPhone X. It unlocks the phone quickly check a person’s face against releases before collecting biometric using infrared and visible light scans those catalogued in a registry; it’s data, which includes their faces. (This to identify the unique characteristics expected to deploy the system for Illinois state law is the only one of its of your face. China’s Byton has built everyone participating in the 2020 kind in the U.S.) an electric SUV that you unlock with

Faceprints cont.

Watchlist FaceTec; Megvii; CyLab Biometrics Center at Carnegie Mellon University; Noveto; SenseTime; Sensible Vision; China; Russia; Alphabet; LG; Apple; Facebook; Alibaba; Samsung; An- droid; NEC; U.S. Government Ac- countability Office

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Key Insight What’s Next Watchlist Technology has made it possible to Nuance Communications is working KnuEdge; MIT Media Lab; Amazon; recognize who you are, even without with auto manufacturers, including Microsoft; DARPA; Alphabet; Nuance seeing your face. Ford and BMW, to develop more ac- Communications; Apple; IBM; Carne- curate voice recognition in the cock- gie Mellon University; Alibaba; Ten- Examples pit. Theoretically, this same technol- cent; Samsung. ogy could be used to detect whether Voiceprints are the set of unique a driver has had too much to drink characteristics that make up your or is suffering from a health condi- individual voice. New machine learn- tion, making it unsafe to operate the ing techniques, combined with vast Voiceprint recognition is the use of vehicle. Voiceprints could be used to datasets of recorded voices, have various AI techniques to recognize a unlock the door when your arms are now enabled researchers to identify person’s voice. full of packages—and to help digital us simply by listening for the micro- assistants, such as Alexa, customize signatures produced when we speak. interactions for each member of your San Diego-based KnuEdge built a family. Researchers at Carnegie Mel- military-grade platform capable of lon University discovered a generative recognizing our individual voices, technique allowing them to build a even in a noisy environment. Founded 3D version of someone’s face using by NASA’s former Chief Administra- only their voiceprint. This system is tor and its Chief Technology Officer, being deployed by law enforcement KnuEduge hired world-class voice agencies to identify prank callers and impersonators to see if they could those who trick local agencies into fool the system, but the technology sending out swat teams to take out prevailed every time. retaliation or revenge on others.

035 Tokenomics

036 Tokens For Smart Royalties and Freelancers

037 Immutable Journalism

038 Self-Sovereign Identity

039 Distributed Computing For a Cause

040 Decentralized Curation HIGH DEGREE OF CERTAINTY TRENDS 035 - 040 • FOURTH YEAR ON THE LIST INFORMS ACT Blockchain Technologies STRATEGY NOW KEEP REVISIT

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Key Insight Blockchain: A Primer For or ICO. Ethereum raised $19 million in 2014. In 2017, more than 400 ICOs Blockchain technology hit an inflec- Journalism and Media raised $5.6 billion. tion point in 2017. It evolved beyond Who started it? Bitcoin, from a fringe form of digital In the years since, distributed ledger We don’t know for sure. Blockchain currency, and broke into mainstream, technologies (DLTs) have evolved into was first introduced in 2008 when a as a revolutionary way to share and countless permutations and appli- person or group of people under the store information. While this tech- cations across almost every industry name “Satoshi Nakamoto” published nology is still developing, its broad imaginable. the seminal paper “Bitcoin: a Peer to and far-reaching applications have What is Blockchain, exactly? Peer Electronic Cash System.” Wheth- the potential to impact a range of er Nakamoto is a real person, or a “Blockchain” is shorthand for “Distrib- At its core, blockchain enables multi- industries. For that reason, we have community of people, we still don’t uted Ledger Technology.” Blockchain ple parties to agree on a single source outlined key themes within block- know, because they’ve never come is a method of sharing and storing of truth without having to trust one chain technology that are relevant for forward publicly. information on a distributed ledger another. journalism, media, and adjacent areas where identities and transactions of technology. In 2015, Canadian computer pro- are cryptographically protected. At grammer Vitalik Buterin co-founded its core, blockchain enables multiple Ethereum, a blockchain-based proto- parties to agree on a single source col that allowed for more sophisticat- of truth without having to trust one ed functionality in the form of smart another. It facilitates agreement and contracts. Smart contracts are self-ex- aligns incentives using consensus ecuting agreements where the terms algorithms. In theory, blockchain of the agreement are directly written reduces the need for intermediaries into lines of code. Ethereum was also (such as banks) to coordinate or veri- the first blockchain project to fund- fy transactions. raise through an “Initial Coin Offering”

Where is the Blockchain? it is cryptographically added to the Blockchain existing chain of blocks or “block- There isn’t just one blockchain. In fact, chain” which forms the ledger and there are different types: private, pub- Technologies miners being working on the next lic, and federated. Blockchains can be block. Since it is impossible to pre- started by individuals, companies or cont. dict which miner will verify the next consortiums, and they live on multiple transaction, it is nearly impossible to machines simultaneously. There is no collude against, attack, or defraud singular place where “the blockchain” the network. The network is secure is hosted. as long as miners act independently How does it work? of one another. Much of the mining is Let’s assume we have a network of automated using sophisticated tools. 100 individual nodes running a block- Drawbacks chain ledger. Every node has access Blockchain is still nascent technology to see the full ledger because the and there are a lot of challenges that ledger is distributed. No single node need to be addressed before it can controls the network and all nodes reach mass adoption. The primary have the option to become miners challenges of blockchain relate to if they choose because the network speed, scale, and regulation. is decentralized. Some nodes on the network choose to be miners which Decentralized systems are inherently means they have the responsibility less efficient than centralized systems to verify pending transactions. This and there are trade-offs between work costs more, in terms of ener- security and scale. Bitcoin and Ethe- gy usage and CPU—and so miners reum process between three to six are rewarded for their efforts. Every transactions per second whereas Visa miner that verifies a block of transac- can process thousands of transactions tions wins a block reward, for exam- per second. ple 12.5 bitcoins. Transactions are The regulatory environment for verified by running what are called blockchains and ICOs is still unclear. “proof-of-work” and “proof-of-stake” In the US, the U.S. Securities and consensus algorithms, and miners Exchange Commission, the Financial compete against each other to verify Crimes Enforcement Network, the U.S. transactions. Once a miner verifies a Commodity Futures Trading Commis- set of transactions or a “block,” the sion and state governments all have node broadcasts the new block to differing and, at times conflicting, the entire network. If the majority of policies related to blockchains and the network agrees the block is valid, cryptoassets.

51% attack Blockchain exchange. Crypto-currencies’ value Forks can be accidental, temporary, fluctuates depending on demand and intentional, permanent, planned or A hypothetical attack on a blockchain A new way to share and store infor- supply, similar to traditional currency contentious. They can be the result of where a group of miners working mation on a distributed system where in the global economy. software upgrades or governance de- collectively controls more that 50% transactions and identities are cryp- cisions that nodes refuse to acknowl- of the network’s mining power. These tographically secured. Blockchains DAO edge or forget to install. miners could collude to verify fraudu- are a subset of distributed ledger Decentralized Autonomous Organiza- lent transactions. technologies (DLTs). Bitcoin, Ethe- tion. Many coins use DAOs as a form Fork—hard fork Altcoins reum and Litecoin are some of the of governance and decision-making Software update on a blockchain more famous examples of blockchain among the network. The Ethereum protocol that is not backward com- Any coin other than Bitcoin. networks. DAO is the most famous because it patible, creating a separate block- Bitcoin Cold storage resulted in a contentious hard fork chain. Ethereum’s hardfork resulted and a $50 million hack. (Not to be in Ethereum and Ethereum Classic. Bitcoin was the first cryptocurrency Refers to storing a digital “wallet” confused with the venture capital and the first blockchain. It was intro- or private keys offline, in a piece Fork— soft fork duced in 2008 by Satoshi Nakamoto. fund called DAO, which built on top of hardware not connected to the Software update on a blockchain The currency is abbreviated as BTC of Ethereum.) internet. protocol that is backward compatible on exchanges. Dapp Consensus Algorithms with order versions. Block height Decentralized applications running Algorithms used on blockchain pro- FUD Number of blocks preceding a partic- on blockchain platforms. tocols to reach agreement among the Fear, uncertainty, and doubt. ular block. The first block on a block- miners. Examples include: proof of Ethereum chain is refered to as the “genesis Full node work, proof of stake, proof of author- Ethereum is the second largest coin block” and has a block height of zero. ity, and byzantine fault tolerance. by marketcap after Bitcoin. It was A node on the network that can act Block rewards Crypto-asset introduced in 2015 by Vitalik Buterin. as a miner, verifying transactions on The currency is abbreviated as ETH the blockchain network. Tokens are distributed by the net- Tokenized asset issued on a public on exchanges. Governance work to the miner that verifies a ledger. Includes crypto-currencies particular block. Block rewards are like bitcoin but also platform tokens, Fiat Set rules that govern the blockchain different from mining fees and tips utility tokens, and tokenized securi- Government-issued currency. protocol; governance structures can which are distributed by individu- ties. include on-chain rules like smart con- als (as opposed to the network) to Fork Crypto-currency tracts and code specifications and incentivize miners to verify their The splitting of a single blockchain, off-chain rules like a board of direc- transactions first. A crypto-asset that designed to creating two alternative blockchains tors and annual meetings. function as money; a medium of on different parts of the network.

Hash pointer Immutability Smart Contracts Unique alphanumeric string links A primary characteristic of block- Self-enforcing agreements where the blocks in the chain together with a chains, which create a record of terms are built directly into code and one way math function. transactions that does not change issued on a blockchain. Hashing and prevents “back-dating” in record Solidity keeping. Also referred to as “digital One-way math function that takes granite.” Programming language invented by any input and produces an unique al- Vitalik Buterin for smart contracts on phanumeric string, used in blockchain Light Node Ethereum. to condense information into blocks, A node on the network that can Token useful for assigning any digital file or transact with other nodes but cannot asset with a unique identifier. verify transactions. Digital identity for something that can be owned. HODL Mempool TPS Misspelling of the word “hold,” it’s a Aggregate number and size of un- term used by crypto investors to de- confirmed transactions on a block- Transactions per second, used to scribe keeping coins despite market chain. compare the speeds of different blockchains. volatility and price crashes. Public Key + Private Key Wallet Hot storage Cryptography (similar to what’s used Refers to storing a digital “wallet” or in credit cards) for identities, alpha- File that contains a collection of pri- private keys online, usually within an numeric addresses used to send and vate keys. application or exchange connected receive transactions. Whitepaper to the internet. Examples include SHA256 A technical paper outlining the gov- Poloniex, Coinbase and Bittrex. Cryptographic hash algorithm used in ernance, protocol, and features of a ICO most blockchains. project. Short for Initial Coin Offering. It’s a Shilling relatively unregulated way of raising money. Aggressively promoting a coin or crypto-asset.

Blockchain technology has the potential to impact many industries, but there is still plenty of uncertainty around the role that blockchain might play in the next five to ten years. We’ve cross-referenced distributed ledger technologies with some of the most relevant trends in this report to help you identify the biggest opportunity for blockchain technology within your organization.

• Artificial Intelligence (especially Biases) • Computational Journalism • Digital Frailty • Radical Transparency • One-to-Few Publishing • Real-Time Fact Checking • Offline is the New Online • Splinternets • Blocking the Ad Blockers • First Amendment in the Digital Age • Virtual Reality • Trolls • Prize Hacks • Glitches • Ownership

FTI Trend Most blockchains are transparent by FTI Trends digital advertisers track their cam- Uncovering Hidden Bias default; allowing any node to observe Digital Frailty paigns across platforms throughout

Connection to Blockchain the flow of information from one Data Retention Policies the media landscape. address to the next through programs Biased algorithms have been a key Connection to Blockchain NBCU recently launched Blockgraph called block explorers. If large public issue in AI. Blockchains depend on A permanent immutable ledger is one with a similar purpose. Anheuser Bus- datasets are put on the blockchain, it algorithms and governance struc- of the defining characteristics of a ch is experimenting with blockchain may be easier for reporters to mine tures; and therefore are vulnerable to blockchain and one of the best ways to measure the effectiveness of ads. these data for interesting stories hidden biases as well. to combat digital frailty. Decentralized AdLedger is a nonprofit consortium and insights. Wyoming, Nevada, Many of the consensus algorithms systems more robust and a block- of industry leaders committed to es- Illinois, and a handful of other states like proof of stake and proof of work, chain ledger will never completely go tablishing global technical standards are pioneering efforts to put public are based on majority vote decisions. away so long as two nodes exist. Lo- and solutions for the digital media databases on blockchains. Passive What does it mean to be a minority cal media organizations and govern- and blockchain industries. data on public blockchains can reveal voice on the blockchain? Hard forks, ment agencies might consider using a surprising amount about users on like Ethereum after the DAO hack, are blockchain as a way to preserve news FTI Trend the network. Chainalysis is a com- perfect examples of how decisions archives, legacy databases, studies Real-time fact checking pany that helps banks, regulators are made at the protocol level. and reports. Civil is a blockchain jour- and private corporations understand The consensus algorithms that are nalism startup focused on creating a From surface-level UX concerns, such customer behavior and activity by part of all blockchains are basical- sustainable business model for local as how blind users access their digital observing various blockchains and ly real-time fact checkers. Miners news outlets. wallets, to more abstract concepts exchanges. They help uncover illegal work in real-time to validate pending like the disproportionate influence of activity, bad actors as well as main- transactions before adding them to FTI Trend miners, the blockchain industry must tain KYC/ AML (know your customer, the ledger. In the next five years, we Transparency in Metrics stay vigilant to uncover hidden biases. anti-money laundering) compliance. are likely to see wider applications of Connection to Blockchain blockchains as a way to validate or With both of these trends, privacy FTI Trends Whether it’s transparency in digital invalidate claims and stories. concerns have led to industry-wide Computational Journalism advertising, IP management and roy- discussions on opt-in data-sharing Radical Transparency alty payments or reporting, block- FTI Trend policies, ethical collection of informa- chain can track and store data, allow- Offline is the New Online Connection to Blockchain tion, and whether or not privacy is a ing organizations to make public only Blockchain can dramatically impact human right. A group of privacy-fo- Connection to Blockchain information that is important without computer assisted reporting tech- cused coins like ZCash and Monero As consumer behavior shifts in re- revealing more than they want to. niques, particularly with flexible data have emerged and are growing in sponse to changing technology, we collection and multidimensional anal- popularity. Companies such as MadHive have will have to redefine what we mean ysis of datasets. launched a suite of products to help by “online” “offline.” Similarly, as

© 2018-2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 050 CROSS-REFERENCED TRENDS FOR BLOCKCHAIN blockchains grow in popularity, so will Freedom of speech in the digital age environment. Neighborhoods can FTI Trends terms like “on-chain” and “off-chain,” has far-reaching implications, beyond form self-governing districts similar to Splinternets which is to say, data stored on the just what we can say and what we SecondLife or the scifi fantasy novels Connection to Blockchain ledger and data stored elsewhere. can write. Blockchains have been Ready Player One and Snow Crash. For better or worse, blockchains can Media companies need to think about commonly referred to as “censorship be a powerful tool to enforce splin- designing applications when users resistant” networks meaning central FTI Trends ternets on behalf of governments have little to no Wi-Fi connection. authorities like banks or governments Prize Hacks maintaining political firewalls or cor- They also need to consider situations do not have the power to block or Gigware porations protecting content behind in which data cannot be stored and censor transactions. Crowdsourcing paywalls. tracked, therefore is it trusted? Wikileaks began accepting bitcoin in Connection to Blockchain 2011 following a banking blockade. Aligning and optimizing incentives is FTI Trend Intimate.io offers financial services to a key characteristic of blockchains. Blocking the Ad Blockers workers in the adult entertainment Decentralized crowd-sourced projects Blockchain web browsers and web 3.0 industry. These are two of many ex- are easier to monitor, execute and decentralized applications (dapps) amples of how blockchain can facili- track through smart contracts. Start- are a threat to incumbents like Google tate first amendment freedoms in the ups PolySwarm, GitCoin, and Bounties and Facebook. At the moment, these digital age. Network are all using blockchain to products is still very fringe but it is fuel the gig-economy. important to see how they develop. FTI Trend Brave is an open-source web browser Mixed Reality FTI Trends Glitches with a built-in ad blocker that uses a Connection to Blockchain pay-to-surf business model. Block- MR like blockchain, is still in its early Connection to Blockchain stack takes it a step further than a days. However, if we take a moment Any emerging tech will have the browser by building a “new internet” to think about blockchains as digital growing pains of glitches, blockchain where users own all their data and governance models, self-regulating is no exception. Most of the major authorize usage to various dapps on networks, and decentralized autono- exchanges have suffered embarrass- the platform. mous organizations, then it becomes ing glitches resulting in significant easier to see where blockchain and loss of capital. Since blockchain is still FTI Trend MR can intersect. In Decentraland, us- relatively unregulated, all companies First Amendment in the Digital Age ers can purchase plots of digital land, should proceed with caution in this and create, experience, and monetize “buyer beware” market. Connection to Blockchain applications within a virtual reality

© 2018-2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 051 BLOCKCHAIN COMPANIES IN Company Description Category Hicky dating app Social Network MEDIA AND JOURNALISM BY Howdoo social network Social Network IBM iX + MediaOcean launch a blockchain ad transparen- Digital Advertising CATEGORY cy solution Immvrse VR content platform Media Platform Kind Ads startup Digital Advertising This list was created during the summer of 2018. We expect M&A will impact Littlstar IP rights management and reward IP/ royalty manage- the companies listed during the next year. system, Ara ment LivePeer Media Platform Peach indicates a blockchain media company, while Orange indicates a media Luna dating app Social Network company investing in blockchain technology. MadHive Digital Advertising

Note: this list has been compiled for informational purposes only. It is not an MetaX - ad Digital Advertising endorsement of these companies or their services. Microsoft + EY using blockchain to pay game de- IP/ royalty manage- velopers (run on Quorum) ment Otoy RNDR Web 3.0 Company Description Category PeerTracks startup - music Media Platform AdEx startup Digital Advertising Po.et startup - media headed up by Media Platform Washington Post’s Jarrod Dicker AdLedger nonprofit consortium of industry Digital Advertising leaders Ponder dating app - friends pay if they set Social Network you up with a good match Ascribe.io IP management RAWG IMDB for video games Social Network Asora startup - privacy, ad blocking Digital Advertising Salon mining on people’s sites who use Digital Advertising Brave startup - browser that uses BAT Web 3.0 ad blockers (Basic Attention Token) for ads SingluarDTV startup - video, music Media Platform CBS Crypto Crow show in seven local Content creator Slate Media Platform markets (CBS and CW) and on Roku Spotify acquired Mediachain – a music IP/ royalty manage- rights/ compensation infrastructure ment Cellarius Content creator Steem.it Content creator CoinDesk owned by DCG Content creator Ubisoft game developer exploring block- IP/ royalty manage- Comcast Blockgraph and Blockdaemon Digital Advertising chain ment Current Media streaming platform backed by Mark Media Platform Ujo startup - music Media Platform Cuban Vaultitude IP management Custos Media IP management Vevue startup - video Media Platform Decentraland VR social network Social Network Video Coin decentralized encoding and storage Web 3.0 Disney incubated DragonChain, enterprise Other blockchain solution Yours Social Network

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Key Insight with virtually zero transaction costs or line up. SingularDTV’s soon-to-launch a rewards program that allows users distribution platform is called Ethervi- Blockchain allows businesses to cre- to lower their monthly subscription by sion. Simple Coin has partnered with ate tokens. A token is a unit of value consuming more media. Unsplash, a photography website, that a business creates to self-govern to create a new business model and its operations, incentivize its users, Distribution channels are typically distribution network for photogra- and distribute benefits to all stake- “winner-take-all” models where a phers. Unsplash already has integra- holders. Tokenomics refers to the handful of players dominate the mar- tions with Google Slides and Invision. different business models made pos- ket. Comcast, AT&T, YouTube, Vimeo, Realistically, the existing distribution sible by blockchain and DLT networks Soundcloud, and Spotify are just a models will be difficult to displace where a token can represent usage, few examples. While it’s difficult to and disrupt. Civil, a blockchain media Tokenomics can revolutionize how utility, value or a combination of the imagine these companies ever going firm, is making a big bet on tokenom- media companies approach moneti- three. Tokenomics can revolution- away, if the talent and the audience ics to create a self-sustaining business zation and distribution. ize how media companies approach move en masse to other platforms model for journalism and local media monetization and distribution. with better features (pricing models, outlets. Steemit is one of the oldest revenue share, IP protection), then media-based blockchain tokenomics those companies may lose their posi- Examples projects. Launched in 2016, Steemit tion as market leaders. Historically, media companies and is a social networking site that pays news organizations have relied on SingularDTV is a blockchain media content creators and curators with a mix of ad-based and subscrip- company building out a variety of over one million registered accounts. tion-based revenue models. News- token models for artists, producers, papers are a clear example of how and audiences. They have helped What’s Next rapidly these revenue models can be artists finance projects and they have Tokenomics as a concept was first in- disrupted by digital entrants. Block- launched peer-to-peer music festivals troduced in late 2017. Currently, these chain can facilitate micropayments where audiences have a say in the

Tokenomics cont.

models are mostly theoretical and it will be a few years before we see how consumers behave with these models in practice.

Watchlist Civil; ConsenSys; SingularDTV; Steem. io

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Key Insight Examples on a blockchain ledger and then using a web crawling service to scan web- Platforms like Ethereum enable Ethereum and other decentralized sites to see if a copyrighted image is micropayments for accessing intellec- application platforms are building being used. tual property including content like infrastructure for content creators news or music. The platforms enable to receive micro transactions for Smart contracts, digital intellectual this through smart contracts, which access to their intellectual property. property rights and micro payments are basic contracts that are automat- This is laying the foundation for new, advancements are creating an oppor- ically executed. For example, every low-friction ways to automate roy- tunity for news and media to revisit time a song is played, it sends a small alty payments for digital intellectual an economic model that was once amount of money from the listener to property. adopted by the news services on KODAKCoin is designed to help CompuServe in the 1980s. This was the artist. Ryan Leslie’s platform SuperPhone photographers be compensated a news structure where readers paid Platforms will be created around is an example of a content creator and retain ownership of their digital per view of articles, including pay- giving the content creator the most choosing to develop their own distri- property ing extra for images. At the time this ownership and rewards for the con- bution model to cut out intermediar- was possible because CompuServe tent produced. Content creators will ies. The platform SuperPhone is being offered higher quality journalism in drive adoption because they get the developed into a platform for other a way that was easier to find, search majority of revenues instead of giving artists to do the same. and read. Ultimately this service failed the majority of the revenues to the KODAKOne and Binded are examples due to increasing availability of free, distribution platforms. At the same of platforms designed to help pho- high quality journalism and the advent time the creators will also retain more tographers manage the digital rights of free search services such as Google ownership control and direct interac- of images using blockchain technolo- and AOL. tion with the audience. gy. They primarily work by recording ownership and creation of the images

Tokens For Smart Royalties and Freelancers cont.

What’s Next matter what platform it is created Watchlist on is an example. As such we expect Artists with music will be first to Civil; Ethereum; Cardano; EOS; NEO; that there will be increased demand publish content on a smart contract IOTA; Monero; SuperPhone; Kodak for platforms that allow the content enabled platform where content cre- Coin; Binded; Getty; Reuters creator to retain ownership and be ators must give less money to inter- compensated for the engagement mediaries. This type of content will they drive. This is likely to affect the be more successful as there is greater photography industry as historically consumer demand and significant photographers retained copyright revenue for the artists to capture in ownership of their film photographs. disintermediating the record and dis- But recent platforms have required tribution companies. photographers to sign over rights to News platforms will be fast followers the image purchaser. but will struggle to incentivize end The change in ownership rights would users to migrate to new platforms as be the equivalent of Instagram paying specific journalists have less market popular content creators directly to power and smaller follower base. retain them on their platform—it’s a Ownership of digital assets are departure from the current model, evolving with a movement for content where network effects mean that Ins- creators to keep ownership rights of tagram does not need to pay content their content. GDPR rules in Europe creators. Instead, content creators where people have greater ownership are paid by brands who seek to get rights over the data they create, no access to the creators’ followers.

SCENARIO

Near-Futures Scenarios Optimistic Framing Pragmatic Framing Catastrophic Framing For Smart Royalties Digital assets of all kinds adopt in- Creators migrate to platforms that We have a patent troll problem— tellectual property protection rules provide greater intellectual property. they’re chasing IP and burdens for In the next 10 years content creators and systems. This enables content First movers will be musical artists distribution channels. Patent trolls will demand more control over their creators to capture more of the value that already have established them- make the economics of creating intellectual property and will begin to that they create downstream, leading selves in their industry. It will not be content even more compressed—that use platforms that provide increased to a change in the distribution of re- the standard way of operating for end winds up reducing creativity and intellectual property protection. As wards in the value chain. This reduces consumers, but end consumers will shrinking the pool of people and encryption, cryptography and dig- the dominance of the delivery chan- be willing to use multiple platforms to brands creating new content. Only ital identity technology evolve and nel from information delivery. Con- get to the content they value or be- those who can afford the potential become more mainstream, digital sequently, ownership and copyright cause of a strong personal connection costs of defending their IP are willing content will be managed and con- structures become much clearer and with the content creator. to create new works. trolled in such a way that analog/ misappropriation of content becomes physical ownership structures will be very rare. Additionally, as creators are Probability Probability able to be applied to digital content. more fairly compensated, they create Examples include limiting the number more content that is both paid and 40% because there are strong finan- 30% because if the technology to of copies an image can be made and unpaid. cial incentives for specific players to track IP becomes cost effective for watermarking individual copies of increase their ability to defend their creators to use, it is quite likely that photographs. IP. As such they will create momen- there will be companies seeking to Probability tum for advances in technology to copy the patent troll business model 30% because this would require that enable cost effective enablement of by taking large to medium sized cor- entire industries adopt a new tech- DRM. The network effects will likely porations to court. nology format. The music industry be strong as huge scale is not needed tried this in the past using DRM but to start. a lack of standards and a perception that consumers were being cheated, crippled adoption.

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Key Insight Examples What’s Next Blockchain technology allows for the TRON and Civil are blockchain Publishers will soon leverage block- creation of a distributed immutable platforms designed to create decen- chain-based platforms to guarantee record of information (a record that tralized sources of information. They that their content does not get mod- can never be deleted or modified, allow anyone to create and distribute ified or censored on route to its end essentially a ledger of records that content freely and that cannot be consumers. Information archive com- can only be added to). This would easily censored. Decentralized plat- panies or distribution companies—like enable information to be recorded forms for news and information will WikiLeaks—would be able to distrib- and distributed in a way that is visible give more control to publishers and ute information using a distributed to all and cannot be changed without will shift the power structure away system by inserting the information Information can be permanent and changing all records across most us- from platform operators, who control within a blockchain ledger similar to accessible to all with blockchain tech- ers. A distribution channel leveraging or limit distribution and compensation Bitcoin’s. Recording information in a nology. blockchain technology could make it Think of this trend as a new way to blockchain would also ensure that it more difficult to censor and limit ac- build trust around critical information. does not become inaccessible if the cess to information. Content creators host servers are disconnected. could use distribution channels that can guarantee that their content does Watchlist not get altered, filtered or blocked by TRON; Civil; Decent; Ethereum; reddit; a third party. Twitter; WordPress; Wix.com; Quora; WikiLeaks; Internet Archive; Agora

SCENARIO

Mid-Futures Scenarios Optimistic Framing Pragmatic Framing Catastrophic Framing For the Future of Im- Storage and transmission capabilities Specific actors and types of infor- Governments restrict information un- expand to support information sys- der the assumption that the public is mutable Public Infor- mation will be valuable enough to tems that are never deleted and can merit the additional effort required deemed unable to act in the interest mation handle each person having a copy of to be put into a blockchain. Some will of the greater good. Consequently, all information. The world adopts an champion the technology, but the information becomes increasingly In the next 15 years, specific types ethos that all news and information is technology fails to create a change in confidential and distributed ledgers of information will begin to be permanent and transparent. how people think about information become outlawed from data owner- transferred into databases that use and access. Rather than creating a ship perspectives. Splinternets be- blockchain technology to ensure News and elections are based on social revolution, we instead debate come increasingly common and trust their immutability. The first data sets immutable and transparent record the politics of immutable records. is centralized in organizations with to be converted will be ones where systems such as blockchain. This limited oversight. News and infor- there is significant distrust among reduces confusion and conflict around mation is limited by editorial control the members and where a governing governance transitions. It causes in- Probability from larger entities that are primarily creased efforts on bridging the digital body’s impartiality is questionable. 70% because blockchain requires driven by self-interest. to analog divide, thus bringing more Financial services will continue to be development and changing of es- and more people into the digital en- a driver of development, but interest tablished practices only specific use vironment, which will improve access Probability in polling and election/governance cases will have enough benefit and and reduce social inequality. systems will increase. self-interest for the players involved 20% governments from developed to pilot the technology. markets are tending towards increas- Probability ingly protectionist practices and limiting globalization which will likely 10% some elections will use block- also include freedom of information chain but will not be trusted nor flow. Similar in approaches to China’s executed in a 100% trustless way. supervision of information exchange. Smaller and emerging economies will drive adoption, but their execution will be poor and have limited global relevance.

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Key Insight Self-sovereign identity has two pri- personally identifiable information mary benefits: increased security and (PII) to reset passwords and break Identity management systems have increased control. Increased secu- into accounts. seen a gradual evolution from gov- rity because decentralized identity ernment issued IDs to email providers In the media industry, companies solutions in theory are much harder to and social media accounts. The aver- struggle with how to deal with digital hack. Increased control because when age person now has dozens of unique identity and authentication. Stream- an individual manages her identity, online accounts. Companies like ing platforms like Netflix and HBOGo she owns her data and can therefore Google, Yahoo, and Facebook have have multiple users sharing a sin- decide how to monetize it. For media built their business models on man- gle paid account. Online publishers companies, self-sovereign identity aging troves of data on behalf of their have experimented with a myriad of is a trend that touches on paywalls, Self-sovereign identity is a system users, but users have suffered from paywalls and authentication systems authentication, creative IP and royalty where the user is central to the ad- large-scale security breaches—like to allow paid users to enjoy services tracking, as well as digital advertising. ministration of her data and owns her the Yahoo hack that impacted every across multiple devices and apps data outright. single one of its 3 billion accounts. without threatening revenue or secu- Examples rity. Content creators and advertisers, Blockchains and distributed ledger Identity systems help individuals vali- two crucial parts of the media ecosys- technologies have introduced a new date reputation, manage risk and gain tem, also struggle with tracking and approach to identity management: access to groups. Many systems rely managing creative IP and campaigns. self-sovereign identity. Self-sovereign on third-party “identity providers” like Self-sovereign identity would increase identity is a system where the user is governments, Facebook, or Google. the transparency and efficiency of central to the administration of her Digital identity management has been each of these processes. data and owns her data outright. It a central point of vulnerability for in- is interoperable and transportable For IP management and royalty dividuals and corporations alike with across applications, devices, and tracking, if these processes were hackers using phishing emails and platforms. stored and recorded on a blockchain,

each time a person wants to request diaOcean to launch a blockchain ad Self-Sovereign permission to use creative IP (music transparency solution. AdLedger is a in a TV commercial for example), a nonprofit research consortium made Identity cont. smart contract could automatically up of leaders across the industry like pay out the artist and grant permis- IAB and ComScore. Anheuser-Bus- sion for the IP. Microsoft and Ubisoft ch announced a pilot this summer are experimenting with blockchain to where it will be tracking ad units with pay game developers. Custos Me- blockchain. Finally, startups like Kind dia Technologies and Vaultitude are Ads, Brave browser, AdEx and MetaX blockchain startups focused on an- are all making blockchain solutions for ti-piracy solutions and IP protection. digital advertising. Spotify acquired blockchain startup MediaChain to build out its distrib- What’s Next uted music rights and compensation Self-sovereign identity will likely be infrastructure. adopted in phases. IBM and Microsoft In the world of digital advertising, are piloting projects and startups there has been a rallying cry from like UPort and Sovrin are making advertisers and publishers for more headlines. Since interoperability is transparency and accountability a defining feature of decentralized across the industry. Currently, it is a identities, media companies should defacto duopoly with Google and look for partners instead of attempt- Facebook driving the market. Be- ing to launch an identity product on tween the advertisers and their target their own. audience, the publishers and their ad dollars, there is a bevy of middlemen Watchlist such as DSPs, SSPs, ad exchanges, Po.et; IBM; Microsoft; UPort; Currency; yield optimization tools and analytics Ubisoft; Custos Media Technologies; platforms. Blockchain could help track Vaultitude; Spotify; Comcast; Media- ads as they move through the eco- Ocean; MetaX; AdEx; Kind Ads; Brave system from advertiser to publisher browser; Netflix; Google; Facebook. to audience and prove if the end user was an authentic click or a spam bot. Comcast was one of the first large media players to enter this space with the Blockchain Insights Platform in 2017 and the Blockgraph product in 2018. IBM iX is partnering with Me-

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Key Insight not yet been launched, but the intent designed to focus on rendering com- is to use the idle processor in you puter-generated images, DNA analy- Key Insight: Distributed computing phone to perform distributed com- sis, and machine learning. There are is a process where large computer puting calculations overnight to earn three roles in the ecosystem: provid- problems are broken down into small- the cryptocurrency Monero. Monero ers of resources, users of resources, er segments that can be calculated on will then be used to fund quality news and software developers. GridCoin multiple regular computers, instead organizations that the users select. is another blockchain-based distrib- of on centralized super computers. uted computing platform providing Distributed computing technology Folding@home is a distributed com- resources to philanthropic scientific enables idle processor time on per- puting project for disease research research. sonal laptops, cell phones and other that was launched on October 1st, 2000. The project used idle process- The Golem.network is a distributed digital devices to become a valuable What’s Next computing system that pools resourc- resource. Idle processor time then ing resources on personal comput- es across many devices for shared becomes a valuable resource that ers, PlayStation 3s, and some Sony There will be an increasing number projects and tasks. can be used to not only solve socially smartphones to for scientific research. of platforms that allow consumers to important problems but the financial People donated their idle computer monetize their idle computer resourc- incentives for using your idle process- processing time to the project. es. This will enable people to earn ing time can be used to fund import- Golem.network is a platform that new income from resources that they ant causes. proves that idle computer resourc- already own and are underutilized. es are a valuable asset that can be For developers and people in need Examples monetized. Golem is built upon the of computing resources, this will help drive down prices for computing re- Honeycomb is a cryptocurren- Ethereum blockchain where one can sources and increase the diversity of cy-based project which crowdsourc- rent out idle computing resources options available. This will reduce the es unused phone power to support like storage, processing power, or costs of digital distribution of news quality journalism. The platform has bandwidth. The platform is currently

and will facilitate donation of comput- Distributed ing resources to social causes. Thus, decreasing the financial burden of Computing For information distribution and analysis a Cause cont. borne by news providers. Watchlist Honeycomb; Monero; Golem.network; SONM; GridCoin; Microsoft; Intel; Ap- ple; Android; Amazon Web Services; every single wireless carrier.

SCENARIO

Mid-Futures Scenarios Optimistic Framing Pragmatic Framing Catastrophic Framing For Distributed All computing resources can be Distributed computing technology New computer viruses highjack shared and are automatically continues to advance but is only for our devices, which are put to work Computing. load-balanced across resources. This specific use cases and for specific mining for cryptocurrencies without significantly increases the global com- kinds of computing tasks, instead of our knowledge. Our devices leech Distributed computing technology puting resources available, improving all general computing tasks. Load and electricity and computing resources, advances to the point of being just as access and reducing costs for all. resource balancing continues to be causing us all headaches. We’ll see efficient and fast as centralized com- Excess capacity is used to solve social too complex to execute effectively repeats of what happened in May puting—but is also able to leverage problems, while access to information at scale and reliably. Customers that 2018, when a Russian government idle computing resources in all kinds and technology start to become a do not require stringent privacy or page was hacked and sent visitors internet connected devices. universal human right that is distribut- ownership rights—or who don’t care to a website that secretly installed ed across the entire digital ecosystem. about bandwidth—are offered lower cryptocurrency mining software on fees in exchange. The general public their computer. The frequency and doesn’t see the point. pervasiveness of hijacking computing resources becomes so great that the general internet infrastructure becomes degraded and slows down as the majority of resources are used for mining cryptocurrencies.

SCENARIO

Gigware is on the horizon.

Imagine getting into bed tonight, docking your phone into its charger on your nightstand like always. You set the alarm, and just before closing your eyes to sleep, you start up a special app—one which invites hackers to take over your phone. It isn’t a dream—but it isn’t a nightmare either. It’s the future of the gig economy.

In the coming years, you’re going to hear a lot about our new decentralized sharing economy. It’s a clever way of distributing computing power over a wide network for a variety of tasks, which range from performing mathematical computations to mining for cryptocurrencies. All you need to get started is to install what we call “gigware.” It’s a benevolent use for the same kind of malware a hacker relies on to break into your computers and phones, except that it generates a tangible benefit, whether you’re a company or individual user. Think of it as the next evolution of the sharing economy powered by artificial intelligence.

At the moment, there are nearly four billion internet users spread around the world, and each of us owns three devices on average. That means there’s a gigantic pool of processing power sitting dormant at any given time.

Gigware is like Airbnb for your computers and phones. It will someday allow third-party businesses to use your smartphones and computers in exchange for credits or real money you can spend elsewhere. Because the systems are distributed and decentralized, private data is safeguarded.

Gigware could be an alternative to traditional news subscriptions. A media organization might invite consumers to allow their mobile phones to be used for complex calculations overnight, and in return they can earn credits to pay for digital subscriptions to their favorite newspapers and magazines.

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Key Insight Examples tures like Reddit where the content is crowd sourced and historical posts on Cryptocurrencies and application Steemit is a blogging community like the same topic are relevant. Crowd- platforms can be a model for de- Reddit where users are rewarded for sourced “truths” will evolve past centralized curation. This is because creating, curating and interacting with majority to rule into qualified majority the platforms are exploring ways to content. Steemit uses a cryptocurren- rule structures. Cryptographic digital govern themselves, without having cy-based points system to facilitate identities will increase in importance a central authority or leader of the curation and engagement in content as trust becomes dependent on the collective group. As a result, self-gov- on the platform. Points are earned for historical merits of individual user- ernance and incentive structures from creating content, upvoting and com- names/credentials. blockchain/smart contract-based menting on other posts. Users build Cryptocurrencies and application platforms create a proving ground for reputations allowing them to have Watchlist platforms can prove a model for alternate forms editorial curation of more impact on curating the content. decentralized curation/editorial of information that is more resilient to Reputations can be built organically Steemit; Decent; Ethereum; Reddit; content. the interests of specific stakeholders. or bought. Points are issued in crypto- Twitter; YouTube;, Facebook; Word- Press;Wix.com; Blogger; Tumblr; Quo- Trust can be constructed using new currency, which can then be convert- ra; and digital identity providers such processes that are less reliant on cen- ed into dollars or other currencies. as Oberthur Technologies, NetIQ, tral entities. Cryptocurrency self-gov- Socure, Early Warning. ernance technology additionally What’s Next reduces the need for intermediaries You will begin to see users demand and changes trust dynamics impact- that platforms place greater impor- ing the role of distributors of informa- tance in trust and establishment of tion and entities that edit and control credibility. As such it is likely to start information. with content creators that are most accustomed to forum or blog struc-

SCENARIO

Mid-Futures Scenarios Optimistic Framing Pragmatic Framing Catastrophic Framing For Decentralized User generated content platforms Content from verified and authentic Information will become completely create systems for self-regulation, sources are given increased impor- separated into that which is trust- Curation establishing clear structures for in- tance on user generated platforms worthy (from a trustworthy source) formation quality and transparency improving the trustworthiness of and information that is from an End consumers will begin to demand around conflicts of interest or intent. information. Verification is primarily unproven source. Entities that bestow certain indicators of trustworthiness In creating effective self-governance, driven by centralized entities resulting trustworthiness will control what as readers become more attuned to centralized entities that bestow au- in partial fragmentation of informa- type of information merits wider clickbait, intentional interference and thority become decentralized, paving tion with a greater importance on distribution and who is able to create become skeptical of robot created the way for freer transfer of informa- pay-to-play. This provides a signifi- content. This will effectively lay the content specifically generated to tion and reducing polarization and cant opportunity for players that have foundation for systematized global influence them. In the next decade, gamification of display algorithms. already established trust to become censorship and control of information Facebook, Reddit, YouTube and other Individual journalists begin to create leaders in transparency and impartial- and its distribution. user generated content platforms will their own brands and reputation and ity, ideally providing the opportunity begin to create trusted authorities generate followings that are less de- to explore new monetization schemes and authenticate/validate content Probability pendent on the platform or medium leveraging this trust. that is on their platforms as they that distributes their content. 30% because China is creating a seek to continue to deliver news as a precedent for others to put systems in form of relevant, timely and engaging Probability place at national levels, thus frag- content. User credentials will there- Probability 60% because the public and gov- menting information at global levels. fore become increasingly important 10% because cryptocurrency pioneers ernment are both requesting greater and begin to require their own risk have yet to be proven. As such, until transparency and clarity from Face- profiles based on historical data. the principles are proven, platforms book and other content providers with many users will be hesitant to try that seek to distribute news. There such revolutionary change. will be increasing demand for editorial functions within those platforms.

041 Voice Interfaces

042 Monetizing Chat- Based Journalism

043 New Video and Audio Story Formats HIGH DEGREE OF CERTAINTY TREND 041 • EIGHTH YEAR ON THE LIST INFORMS ACT Voice Interfaces STRATEGY NOW KEEP REVISIT

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Key Insight teractions North Americans have with What’s Next machines will be using their voices. We are in an era of conversational Voice technology has proven it is interfaces. You can be expected to Conversational interfaces can simu- commercially viable and will likely talk to machines for the rest of your late the conversations that a reporter continue to experience significant life. These systems use semantic and might have with her editor, as she growth in the coming years. The natural language processing, along talks through the facts of a story. biggest threat to the expansion of with our data, in order to anticipate IBM Watson’s various APIs, including this industry will come from govern- what we want or need to do next. Debater, Visual Recognition, Alche- ment regulation and privacy concerns. What’s new to consider for 2019: what myLanguage, Conversation and Tone In May 2018, the European Union’s happens when voice interfaces start Analyzer can all be used to assist General Data Protection Regulation Siri processes questions and requests to make up more and more of our reporters with their work. (GDPR) took effect, these regulations using natural language processing. internet searches? As the Internet of Things (IoT) con- are designed to place restrictions on tinues to develop and improve, the the data companies can obtain and Examples number of devices people can com- use from consumers. The effect these rules will have on voice technology is If you’ve ever used Siri, Google Now, municate with will also increase. Voice still unclear. There have already been Amazon’s Alexa or even the mi- interfaces will allow more users to ask numerous debates about whether crophone button on your Comcast about the weather, get assistance in Alexa and Google Home can meet remote control, you’re familiar with making a grocery list, and have the GDPR compliance as they evolve. voice interfaces. Soon, you will find news played to them. In the work- yourself talking to a host of con- place voice technology is being used We expect to see increased mon- nected devices, such as your home in the form of personal assistants, etization of the voice ecosystem thermostat, your car, your refrigerator, listening, transcribing and repeating either through subscription offerings, your earbuds, even your connected information, and companies like IBM partnerships with voice providers, or water bottle. By 2023, 50% of the in- are at the forefront of using APIs that through paid advertisements. CNBC help analyze language and tone.

and other major networks are con- Voice Interfaces sidering selling audio sponsorships (much like what we hear on podcasts) cont. based on the platform’s increased popularity. Media companies and journalists should also take note: if Am- azon and Google control the means of our future conversations, how will news and media brands be included and prioritized?

Watchlist Amazon; Google; Baidu; Tencent; Apple; Alibaba; IBM Research; Face- book; Stanford University; MIT CSAIL; MIT Media Lab; University of Texas at Austin.

© 2018-2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 070 HIGH DEGREE OF CERTAINTY TREND 042 • FIRST YEAR ON THE LIST INFORMS ACT Monetizing Chat-Based STRATEGY NOW KEEP REVISIT Journalism VIGILANT IMPACT IMMEDIATE LONGER-TERM IMPACT LONGER-TERM LATER WATCH

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Key Insight communication channel and transac- that will keep users engaged on the tional channel into one. platform including enabling seamless Communication and messaging plat- actionability. This could allow more forms are becoming the central hub Additionally, WeChat is developing people an avenue to discuss and for social interactions including the functionality that allows new moneti- perform actions all within the same distribution of information and exe- zation schemes for journalists. These channel, by making reservations, cution of financial transactions. This functionalities include the ability to creating calendar events or executing centralization of channels and access tip content creators and pay to read payments. We expect further consol- to services creates an opportunity for functionality. These kinds of function- idation of communication and trans- new channels to reach readers that alities stimulate journalists to move action channels in the next decade as have micropayment functionality en- from established newsrooms into messaging platforms seek to absorb WeChat is a popular social media app abled. In China, media organizations their own individual audiences and other disparate functions using chat in China and a popular way to make are incentivizing their audiences to followers. as the center point of a convenience payments. make micropayments for content. Other major platforms are also adding driven ecosystem. This creates the payments functionality although opportunity for journalists to develop Examples focusing initially on person-to-person one-to-one relationships with their WeChat in China is the global mar- transactions. These platforms include readers and drive much more engage- ketleader in incorporating value Facebook messenger, iMessage, ment and interaction at a level more added services into its messaging Snapcash, Gmail, Google Assistant advanced than in the past. Using platform. WeChat offers a wide range and WhatsApp. segmentation and extremely target- of services and functionality but one ed content, organizations could offer of its most interesting services is the What’s Next interactions on specific topics that are ability to pay friends (person to per- Messaging platforms continue to seek timely, as well as contact with relevant son) and pay merchants directly without new features and functionalities experts where the interaction and the in the application, thereby merging a knowledge are paid for directly.

Monetizing Watchlist Apple; Google; Amazon; Microsoft; Chat-Based Facebook; PayPal; WeChat; WeMedia; Weibo; Line; Alibaba; Venmo; Aliba- Journalism ba; Mastercard; Visa; Citibank; BBVA; Santander; ING; Slack; blogging plat- cont. forms; Chinese internet authorities

SCENARIO

Scenarios For Optimistic Framing Pragmatic Framing Catastrophic Framing Monetizing Chat in the Global standards are set, and features Regional players become market Chat ecosystems become increasingly and functionality are enabled for chat leaders and take advantage of large fragmented as partners and players Year 2029 across countries and borders. This network effects by adding features seek to build walls around the fea- improves inclusivity and access for all. that are easiest to implement. A se- tures and functionality that they can Chat programs become the browser As platforms become multinational, lect few journalists attain a strong and provide. This results in platforms with for our person-to-person interactions we see less censorship. Algorithms large enough following to monetize functions that are only effective for in the next decade. Global messaging ensure that we view multiple sides of journalism without needing a larger specific situations. Divergent view- platforms follow WeChat’s hub model issues that are relevant at a local scale distribution or trust-enabling partner. points are marginalized. and begin adding more and more as well as issues that are relevant at features. News becomes a key feature a global scale. The platforms create a of chat hubs that retain engagement. Probability Probability strong demand for diverse journalism. 60% because this is the path of least 10% because walled gardens are hard resistance. Partners will come to mes- to maintain, as we saw with BlackBer- Probability saging platforms hoping for access ry Messenger. Network effects and 30% because local governments and to users. Content creators that have critical mass are needed for many regulations will try to limit a single reached critical mass using existing financial models to work at scale and entity having so much access over its platforms (newsrooms or record la- support small players. With no clear communications, especially at a glob- bels) will seek to capture more of the platform to centralize around, people al level. Journalists will be pushed into financial pie. will have to find other ways to central- creating one-to-one relationships with ize and achieve efficiencies of scale. their audiences in order to monetize the content they create.

© 2018-2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 073 HIGH DEGREE OF CERTAINTY TREND 043 • FIRST YEAR ON THE LIST INFORMS ACT New Video and Audio Story STRATEGY NOW KEEP REVISIT Formats VIGILANT IMPACT IMMEDIATE LONGER-TERM IMPACT LONGER-TERM LATER WATCH

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Key Insight for younger viewers. Last year the presumably to compete with rival BBC released an audio play available Amazon’s robust video programming, Capitalizing on the proliferation of on Amazon’s Echo smart speaker in and major networks like ABC, Fox, consumer tech featuring responsive which the listener guides the narrative and CNN have dedicated digital chan- visual, tactile and audio interfaces, by speaking directly to the characters. nels for VR/360 video content span- storytellers are developing uncon- Meanwhile, companies like RYOT have ning news, sports, and entertainment. ventional narratives to engage their partnered with major news outlets As audiences flock to the new formats audience in new ways. News media including The New York Times and more often and in greater numbers, and entertainment organizations have NPR to produce immersive documen- brands at the forefront of this trend begun exploring these innovative tary video segments, viewable in VR, will be positioned to perform en- modes of storytelling, with areas of in which audiences can freely explore hanced data collection with which to In interactive web series like That focus in personalization, interactivity environments in 360 degrees. target advertising and personalize Moment When, users determine the and immersion. content. actions of the main character, altering What’s Next the storyline in real time. Examples Currently these new storytelling Watchlist Pioneers in the storytelling space formats are in an experimental phase, Eko; RYOT; BBC R&D; Spotify; Dolby; are making use of advancements in with consumers yet to fully embrace Melcher Media; Wolf 359; World Build- audiovisual tech to create content them, and companies yet to fully mas- ing Institute; Netflix; Magic Leap; Am- that immerses the audience and ter them. In the coming years, howev- azon; Google; Facebook; Nvidia; Sony; elicits interaction. Production house er, growth is expected in interactive Imax; Microsoft; Samsung; Qualcomm; Eko creates interactive live-action and immersive audio and video, with Intel; LG; Huawei; Zeiss; Xiaomi; HTC; video content where the viewer taps major media brands looking to stake Lenovo; HP; YouTube; Oculus. or clicks to decide the protagonist’s their claim in the space. Eko is build- actions, and Netflix has introduced ing a video platform for Walmart, similar user-influenced programming

SCENARIO

Near-Future Scenarios Optimistic Framing Pragmatic Framing Catastrophic Framing For Lip-Synched Videos Computer generated video standards CEOs already tend to read from Misinformation becomes rampant as are created so viewers have a clear scripts that are heavily practiced and everyday people are unable to tell AI can generate lip-synched video understanding of when “improved” or scrutinized. This would be an addi- what is real and what is not. Compet- that is indistinguishable from the real “generated” video is being watched. tional tool that the communications itors intentionally misappropriate the thing. Generative algorithms could be The generated and improved videos specialists could leverage. Only few likeness of managers and CEOs at used to automatically create videos are used to communicate messages large players become adept at using other companies, as well as analysis of CEOs reading their annual letters, more clearly and concisely at the level the technology and make personal- and investors, which splinters organi- or for analysts to explain their latest that is most appropriate for the end ized messages a competitive advan- zations and countries and generally findings. However, hackers could also consumer. All entities have access to tage to stimulate stock performance wreaks havoc around the world. use this technology in real-time to ability and expertise, ensuring that and growth. It’s clear that those com- manipulate company stock prices. there is no unfair advantage to any panies are using generated video— specific entity. It saves time for CEOs however they make it impossible for and leaders, who wouldn’t have sat smaller companies to use the same through recording sessions. technology.

044 Adaptive Learning For Newsrooms

045 Nanodegrees For Journalists HIGH DEGREE OF CERTAINTY TREND 044 • THIRD YEAR ON THE LIST INFORMS ACT Adaptive Learning For STRATEGY NOW KEEP REVISIT Newsrooms VIGILANT IMPACT IMMEDIATE LONGER-TERM IMPACT LONGER-TERM LATER WATCH

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Key Insight in. Adaptive learning uses the infor- Already being used in banking and mation it collects on which wrong financial services, adaptive learning An interactive teaching method pow- answer was chosen to help dictate offers media organizations a new way ered by artificial intelligence that can where a student or employee needs to build capacity and expertise on a be used by businesses and educa- additional focus and either provides wide variety of subjects. tional institutions to tailor curriculum that insight or lets the relevant su- for individuals based on correct and Professional development staff pervisor know where the individual incorrect responses to questions. For will need to be skilled and able to needs personalized attention. In the newsrooms wanting to provide specif- work with adaptive learning solu- business setting, adaptive learning is ic subject area training for reporters tion providers to develop and track being used by employers in on-ramp- and editors, this technology offers big career learning plans of employees. ing and employee training sessions to New adaptive learning systems are opportunities. The result will be a better-educat- help hone specific skills and under- being used for training. ed workforce combined with better stand an individual’s specific strength informed management about the Examples and weakness. In a 2017 course on specific strengths and weaknesses of Imagine four different employees HarvardX (an open online platform) their staff beyond the holistic level. taking a multiple-choice quiz about students who were placed into the Look to see adaptive learning used as best practices for publishing breaking adaptive learning track outperformed a tool by managers to pick people for news. One employee gets the ques- the control group by 19% and across projects based on identified strengths tion right, and the other three get the different key metrics. and weaknesses. question wrong but all select three different choices. Traditionally the What’s Next Watchlist three who got the question wrong In the constantly-evolving journalism would not be treated any differently, NovoEd; Everwise; HarvardX; Pearson; industry having a highly skilled team a wrong answer is a wrong answer. Dreambox; IBM; Microsoft; Knewton; is essential to survival, and compa- That’s where Adaptive Learning steps Axonify; Qstream; Intrepid; Geekie nies have begun to fully embrace this.

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Key Insight Pennsylvania, and numerous other and hiring staff at major companies. courses created by institutions such As large corporations partner with An alternative to traditional two or as Michigan State University, Wes- nanodegree providers like Udacity, four year degree programs, Nano- leyan University, and Duke University those certifications will gain more ac- degrees traditionally offered online, to name a few. Udacity, one of the ceptance in the mainstream. Another involve studying a specific topic area most popular nanodegree platforms, key factor is the rising cost of educa- or industry with the goal of increased now counts more than 50,000 stu- tion and crushing student loan debt. knowledge in the area and some form dents enrolled in various programs It is unlikely the current congress will of certification of completion. Nano- that take approximately 6-12 months pursue legislation that significantly degrees are an opportunity for univer- to complete. These programs are eases the debt burden on students. sities to offer more specific learning either billed per term or as a monthly The rising cost of education could Udacity offers nanodegrees in myriad opportunities for those working in subscription. The degree offerings force the hands of students to seek fields. media. currently tend to be clustered around nanodegrees in place of a traditional technology and topics vary from four-year degree. Examples becoming a data scientist, learning Nanodegrees are being pursued by developer skills, to digital marketing. Watchlist individuals looking to receive a cer- Udacity; Google; Amazon; Coursea; tified understanding of a topic while What’s Next altMBA; Stanford; Harvard; AT&T; avoiding more expensive and time While nanodegree programs are Coursea; Duke; Michigan State; Uni- consuming traditional programs or likely here to stay for the foreseeable versity of Pennsylvania; Wesleyan to simply gain a greater understand- future, their widespread adoption will ing of a topic area. Platforms such hinge on a couple of different factors. as Coursera offer journalism specific The most significant hurdle is aware- courses such as ‘English for Jour- ness and consideration amongst HR nalism’ created by the University of

046 Web 3.0 052 Abusing The Notification Layer 047 Proximity News and Information 053 Journalism as a Service (JaaS) 048 Digital Frailty 054 Transparency in 049 The Case For Radical Metrics Transparency 055 Real-Time Fact 050 Pop-Up Newsrooms Checking and Limited-Edition News Products 056 Offline Connections

051 One-To-Few 057 Audio Search Engines Publishing HIGH DEGREE OF CERTAINTY TREND 046 • FIRST YEAR ON THE LIST INFORMS ACT Web 3.0 STRATEGY NOW KEEP REVISIT

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Key Insight massive collaboration on a larger is a peer-to-peer hypermedia protocol scale and usher in Web 3.0. that facilitates decentralized file shar- The internet is always evolving. Up ing and cloud computing. until today, it has seen three major With Web 3.0, collaboration and de- waves of innovation. Web 1.0, the centralized creation is accelerated for All this is possible because blockchain beginning of the internet age, intro- two reasons. First, gathering, mining, technology enables something called duced static web pages, e-commerce and understanding unstructured data the “fat protocol layer.” Web protocol and email. The Web 2.0 enabled will be much easier with advanced layer is part of the full internet stack. decentralized collaboration and cre- techniques such as data mining, nat- “Full stack” refers to every stage of ativity by ushering in social networks, ural language processing (NLP), and the computer programming/ web sharing economies, cloud computing text analytics. Second, machines can developers tool kit: front end (UX, LA-based Otoy launched RNDR, and dynamic self-sustaining con- collaborate directly with one another design, HTML, Java, CSS) to back end which uses cloud, blockchain, and tent repositories like Wikipedia and through artificial intelligence and ma- (servers, databases, APIs, Python, cryptocurrency technologies to Github. Some collaborations have chine learning. Eventually, machines Ruby). The internet stack has applica- quickly render images for the every- pushed our imagination beyond what will be able to teach one another. tion layers and protocol layers. day content creator. we thought was possible, like Reddit’s There are already projects like this In Web 2.0, most of the value cap- April Fools Day 2017 experiment or underway. In media, Otoy is lowering tured was in the application layer with Google’s 6 month Quick Draw Doo- 3D/ visual effects production costs by little variability in the protocol layer. dling game., creating a decentralized, distributed Examples of the most common proto- Just as cloud computing revolution- network of partners that can chip in cols are HTTP used by browsers and ized how businesses manage and spare processing power with RNDR SMTP and IMAP is used by email-cli- store information, blockchain will tokens. Cellarius is a user-generat- ents. usher in a new wave of innovation for ed, transmedia franchise curated by information technology and databas- artists and audiences through block- Examples chain. The Interplanetary File System es. Distributed ledgers can encourage In Web 3.0, protocols and platforms

may have much more potential for Web 3.0 cont. value creation, hence a larger protocol layer. Companies like Blockstack, Lightning Labs, and RSK are building layer 2 networking products. What does this mean for media companies? With Web 3.0, web browsers and mobile applications can perform more complex processes and enable transactions that were previously not possible. On Web 3.0, media companies might be able to set up micropayment systems or enable users to have more control over their privacy and data.

What’s Next It is still really early days for Web 3.0 applications. Media companies should wait to see how this trend develops— but they should still be tracking this trend.

Watchlist Blockstack; Lightning Labs; RSK

© 2018-2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 081 HIGH DEGREE OF CERTAINTY TREND 047 • SIXTH YEAR ON THE LIST INFORMS ACT Proximity News STRATEGY NOW KEEP REVISIT and Information VIGILANT IMPACT IMMEDIATE LONGER-TERM IMPACT LONGER-TERM LATER WATCH

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Key Insight heim uses beacons to help attendees media organizations to pinpoint their learn about exhibits. Beacons are content geographically for consumers. New technologies can be pro- widely used in infrastructure and pub- grammed to push or receive infor- lic transit systems. Some researchers Watchlist mation to/ from our devices—and estimate that 5 million new beacons also our bodies—tethering us to an Alphabet’s Eddystone; Apple’s iBea- will be installed around the U.S., for always-on information network. con; Estimote; Kontakt.io; Gimbal; various purposes, during 2018. BlueCats; Gelo; BLIP Systems; Blue Examples Beyond Bluetooth, content produc- Sense Networks; Glimworm Beacon; The PulsePoint app uses proximity to ers can now create geofences within Sensorberg GmbH; Accent Advanced In the late 1980s, Ericsson Mobile ex- help connect CPR-trained bystanders mobile apps to push notifications. For Systems; Aruba; Amazon; Qualcomm; perimented with short-link radio tech- with people having a health crisis. example, CPR-trained bystanders can PayPal; Polytechnical University nology, but it would take a decade for receive an alert from the PulsePoint (China); MIT; University of New South mobile service providers to create the app if someone nearby is in need Wales (Australia); Oxford University; industry standard known as Bluetooth of help. PulsePoint also helps peo- National Emergency Address Data- today. Our current Bluetooth stan- ple find the nearest AED in times of base. dard was developed for the internet emergency. of things—which is why you’re hearing so much about beacons, which are What’s Next tiny devices that broadcast a signal and trigger actions based on proxim- We anticipate that our personal data, ity. Target has outfitted hundreds of combined with data from everyday its stores with beacons, which track items in the physical world, will entice consumers as they move around var- developers to build new uses for am- ious parts of the store. The Guggen- bient proximity in the coming years. This means a coming opportunity for

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Key Insight digital-only content published by the weren’t covered by any other media Voice could soon be gone forever. outlet. It included a series of videos, In the past three years, we’ve seen the maps, interactive elements, a forum first widespread cases of important The Voice is just the latest entry on a for residents—and since it only existed journalism being erased from the web long list of news organizations that no as a website, there was no other way because of media consolidation or longer exist. A Pulitzer Prize-winning to see the stories. When Microsoft because sites were no longer being investigative series about a collision pulled out of its joint venture with maintained. Digital Frailty is the phe- that killed 20 children and devastated NBC, the project went offline. nomenon in which those digital assets a Colorado community went offline published to a news organization’s when the Rocky Mountain News went website are impermanent or easily out of business. The Tampa Tribune, Digital Frailty and The Village Voice closed after a long broken. whose motto was “Life. Printed Daily,” Personal Accountability kept its rival, The Tribune, hunting and storied history of award-winning Perhaps not every Facebook post for important stories in the public investigative reporting. What will Digital Frailty in the News should be saved in perpetuity, but become of its digital archive is still interest, covering investigations into The Village Voice closed after a long might we need to look back on this unknown. Tampa’s judges, legislators and law and storied history of award-winning moment in time and reflect on how enforcement. investigative reporting. When inves- our language—how the very way we tor Peter Barbey bought the Voice in Humanity operates on a continuum. communicate—was shaped by our 2015, he promised it would “survive After devastating Texas, Hurricane Instas, our Snaps, and our tweets? and prosper.” Barbey closed the print Harvey made landfall near New Orle- Will our future historians look back, edition two years later, and in Au- ans on the 12th anniversary of Katrina. marveling at the amount of anthropo- gust 2018 he closed its doors entire- Rising From Ruin, an award-winning logical data we were simultaneously ly. There were no plans to preserve project by MSNBC, told the Katrina’s creating—and destroying? If this past its digital archive, which means the aftermath through the lenses of two election season taught us anything, small communities in Mississippi that it’s that Twitter helped to shape pub-

lic opinion and the outcome of the What’s Next Watchlist Digital Frailty election, even as many controversial Digital frailty is a phenomenon af- Axel Springer; Yahoo; Tumblr; Hearst tweets posted by candidates running fecting journalists everywhere. Digital Corporation; Time Inc; Yomiuri Shim- cont. for office, were deleted by their cam- frailty isn’t just about falling revenue— bun Holdings; Tronc; Gannett; Via- paigns. sometimes, new technology obviates com; Hubert Burda Media; Comcast; the old, before anyone’s had a chance Alphabet; Asahi Shimbun Company; Digital Frailty in to convert files or develop archives. Microsoft; Grupo Globo; Advance Government and Public News executive Mario Tedeschini-Lal- Publications; News Corp; Univision; Information li explains how Italy’s largest news Baidu; Bertelsmann; Twitter; Snap; In- Under the Trump Administration, the website, Repubblica.it, didn’t original- stagram; General Electric; Bloomberg; U.S. government agencies removed ly use a content management system. Disney; Amazon; AT&T; Verizon; ESPN; studies, data and reports throughout When the site installed a CMS for Netflix; Hulu; The Onion; PRX; PRI; 2016, 2017 and 2018. Most notably, the first time, everything published Internet Archive; news organizations the Environmental Protection Agen- before it was lost forever. Tedeschi- everywhere. cy scrubbed its website of climate ni-Lalli, along with colleagues Nicolas change information. This was an effort Kayser-Bril, Anne-Lise Bouyer, Pierre to support the Trump Administration’s Romera and Defne Altiok, launched ideas and policies. A government the Offshore Journalism Project— website built to educate children, they hope to preserve national and called “Energy Kids,” also scrubbed private archives and ensure that mentions of climate change. The quality journalism lives on, even if Trump Administration also removed political appointees and governments LGBTQ content from federal web- disagree. While some content can be The EPA scrubbed its educators websites, scrubbed a lot of civil rights retrieved via the Internet Archive, it site of climate change information. information off of WhiteHouse.gov is only taking snapshots of content and scrubbed the HHS.gov website of at a time. Libraries archive printed healthcare data. Federal agencies in- material, but there is no central re- structed staff and grant recipients to pository for all of the digital content avoid using certain phrases—“trans- we are now producing. Perhaps we gender,” “fetus,” “science-based,” don’t need to save every listicle and “evidence-based,”—citing concerns by quiz. What will a future society look the Trump Administration. like if our current media landscape goes dark? Do we have an obligation to preserve the digital conversations shaping society? Should we be working harder to ensure that digital archives aren’t lost?

© 2018-2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 084 HIGH DEGREE OF CERTAINTY TREND 049 • SECOND YEAR ON THE LIST INFORMS ACT The Case For Radical STRATEGY NOW KEEP REVISIT Transparency VIGILANT IMPACT IMMEDIATE LONGER-TERM IMPACT LONGER-TERM LATER WATCH

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Key Insight instantly politicized—many people ar- influenced that work. His research has gued on social media that it was “fake inspired others to use similar network Cambridge Analytica, the influence news” made up by journalists. analysis, historical data and machine Russia peddled during U.S. elections, learning to look for similarities in liter- and the continued spread of misinfor- What’s Next ature, writing and news. A system like mation are making a strong case for this could be deployed to look for ex- radical transparency. The only way to combat misinforma- plicit and hidden influencers on news tion is to make the newsgathering stories. Now that news organizations process completely transparent. Just Examples are relying on data, algorithms, and as consumers expect to see a byline In 2018, the U.S. Immigration and machine learning for various aspects on stories, because it creates a chain Customs Enforcement Agency was of news gathering and publishing, Donald Trump has repeatedly made of accountability, they will soon ex- discovered modifying a piece of they should commit to radical trans- dangerous accusations that journal- pect to know how stories were built. software (its “Risk Classification parency. ists publish what he calls “fake news.” Reporters aided and augmented by Assessment” tool) they use to deter- smart systems should explain what mine whether an immigrant should data sets and tools they used. Mean- Watchlist be detained or released on bond. The while, stories that were written in News organizations everywhere. agency decided to remove the “re- part or entirely by computers should lease” recommendation, but it didn’t reflect that an algorithm was respon- disclose to the public that ICE had sible for the piece of content being altered the tool. It was yet another read/ watched. example of data and algorithms being used in ways that intentionally hid the Professor Ahmed Elgammal at Rut- whole truth from journalists. When gers University has developed an this story did finally come out, it was algorithm that looks for novelty in paintings and analyzes which artists

© 2018-2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 085 HIGH DEGREE OF CERTAINTY TREND 050 • FOURTH YEAR ON THE LIST INFORMS ACT Pop-Up Newsrooms and STRATEGY NOW KEEP REVISIT Limited-Edition News VIGILANT IMPACT IMMEDIATE LONGER-TERM IMPACT LONGER-TERM LATER Products WATCH LOW DEGREE OF CERTAINTY

Key Insight work that encourages both editorial opportunities, as they are vehicles for and technological innovation. data collection and targeted adver- Some organizations have begun to tising. experiment with pop-up newsrooms Meanwhile, news organizations are creating limited-edition news prod- for specific projects and with tempo- Watchlist rary products: limited-run newsletters, ucts that don’t require labor-intensive, podcasts that only last a set number one-off templates and workflows. News organizations everywhere. of episodes, live SMS offerings that Whether it’s a planned news event happen only during events. (such as local elections, festivals or races), an annual conference (ONA, Examples SXSW, PopTech), a season (skiing, football, baseball), or a big story that A sign from the recent Pop-Up News- During Sweden’s 2018 election, more has a defined beginning middle and room Riksdagsvalet. than a hundred journalists gathered end (such as a weather event), limit- together to create Pop-Up Newsroom ed-edition news products are starting Riksdagsvalet – a temporary news- to be used by news organizations. room designed to curb misinformation in the final days before voting. What’s Next It was staffed by the next generation of Sweden’s journalists from three We anticipate seeing more popup prestigious journalism schools. It was newsrooms, temporary podcasts, an extension of Pop-Up Newsroom, a newsletters and chatbots that are de- joint initiative from Meedan and Dig ployed specifically for just one event. Deeper Media, launched in June 2017 Limited-edition news products are with the aim of setting up a frame- revenue and audience engagement

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Key Insight Examples What’s Next Newsletters, podcasts and niche net- Suddenly, it seems like everyone— We anticipate seeing more and more works that captivate smaller audienc- from world leaders, to your next-door niche networks launch, whether they es made a huge comeback. What’s neighbor—has a podcast or news- are individual newsletters or podcasts. next is an expansion to capture even letter. The newest platforms allow But we’re also expecting to see more more niche audiences. content creators to build in a paid mixed reality applications and shows subscription model, and early indi- intended for small audiences. There is cations are that people are willing to an opportunity here for media com- pay. Revue and Substack both offer panies of all sizes to earn revenue at tools to launch a subscription news- scale from a series of small audiences. The Latinx Collective is a newsletter letter: software, analytics, payments published on Revue. service and templates. Meanwhile, Watchlist RadioPublic guarantees payments RadioPublic; Substack; Revue; PRX; to its podcasters. It bookends ads on TinyLetter; Mailchimp; Skype; Garage each episode, and RadioPublic pays Band; SoundCloud; Libsyn; Stitcher; podcasters for every listen at an av- Auphonic; SpeakPipe; Twilio; PRI. erage rate of $20 CPM, regardless of the show’s audience size.

© 2018-2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 087 HIGH DEGREE OF CERTAINTY TREND 052 • FOURTH YEAR ON THE LIST INFORMS ACT Abusing The Notification STRATEGY NOW KEEP REVISIT Layer VIGILANT IMPACT IMMEDIATE LONGER-TERM IMPACT LONGER-TERM LATER WATCH

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Key Insight Examples What’s Next Notifications show bits of information, Notifications are particularly attrac- The problem is that notifications now including updates, reminders and tive to news organizations because come from everywhere—from the messages from friends. They appear they capture attention when our OS, government emergency services, on the lock screens of mobile phones, attention is most vulnerable. Lever- weather apps, games, social networks, wearables and connected devices. aging our FOMO, notifications tempt podcasts, and more. Notifications us to look at our screens and to click with photos and emoji perform better, through. Users who opt-in to receive which is a show of how cluttered the push notifications increase app reten- space has become. News organization rates by 2x or more, while opt-in tions will need to develop new tactics Notifications are a constant distrac- users are twice as likely to engage and strategies to ensure that their tion for people who wear smart- with the content teased. Most major notifications don’t add to the existing watches. news organizations, as well as con- notification layer of clutter—and so tent-creators from other sectors, are they do not alienate readers. now engaging notifications to pull users into content. Watchlist News organizations everywhere; An- droid; Apple; Amazon; Microsoft.

© 2018-2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 088 HIGH DEGREE OF CERTAINTY TREND 053 • FOURTH YEAR ON THE LIST INFORMS ACT Journalism as a Service STRATEGY NOW KEEP REVISIT (JaaS) VIGILANT IMPACT IMMEDIATE LONGER-TERM IMPACT LONGER-TERM LATER WATCH

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Key Insight down the principal means that debt— and the like. Services work outside of that problem—sticks around longer. the social media landscape, relieving On the fringes, news organizations It doesn’t ever go away. Transitioning news organizations of revenue sharing are beginning to provide journalism as to “Journalism as a Service” enables and allowing them to fully monetize a service, rather than traditional news news organizations to fully realize their services. products. their value to everyone working in the knowledge economy—universities, Watchlist Examples legal startups, data science compa- PRX; Twilio; REDEF Group; The Infor- “Software as a Service” is a licensing nies, businesses, hospitals, and even mation; The Coral Project; MIT Media and delivery model, where users pay big tech giants. News organizations Lab; ProPublica. for on-demand access. It’s a model that archive their content are sitting Twilio is a service helping to connect that in the near-future might be an on an enormous corpus—data that and distribute content to consumers. inevitability. The central challenge can be structured, cleaned and used within news organizations is that by numerous other groups. there are immediate, acute problems—but reasonable solutions will re- What’s Next quire long-term investment in energy News deployed as a service includes and capital. The tension between the different kinds of parcels: news sto- two always results in short-term fixes, ries; APIs; databases that can be used like swapping out micro-paywalls for by both the newsroom and paying site-wide paywalls. In a sense, this is third parties; calendar plug-ins for up- analogous to making interest-only coming news events; systems that can payments on a loan, without paying automatically generate reports using down the principal. Failing to pay the news org’s archives and databases

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Key Insight site’s “Trending Topics” area. During they, themselves, cannot verify. Any- the summer of 2017, Facebook offered one creating content needs to under- Social networks are under pressure new landing page views and page stand the ebb and flow of traffic and to offer more transparency in the interaction metrics, which the compa- how one piece of content fits into the numbers they report back to news ny said would offer better insights for broader scope of the organization. organizations. While most companies advertisers. We also expect to see news and other that publish content on the web are content as organizations develop obsessed with metrics, historically It goes without saying that metrics new models to bring transparency in they’ve kept audience data hidden can influence editorial and business decisions, not to mention how the metrics to staff—without jeopardizing Chartbeat is a popular metrics tool from staff. public interprets the popularity of a editorial integrity. used in newsrooms. Examples story. Most large news organizations have hired audience engagement and Watchlist Metrics are neither easy to find nor analytics managers as go-betweens. Nielsen; Chartbeat; YouTube; Google; easy to understand for many working Instagram; Snap; Facebook; Twitter; inside of content organizations. Face- What’s Next news organizations everywhere. book has apologized for displaying incorrect numbers of video plays to Now that Facebook has announced advertisers and publishers, and said it’s weighing personal posts over news that it had been showing incorrect stories from publishers, and Google is metrics for two years as it attempted launching a native ad-blocking client to challenge YouTube. Earlier in the in Chrome, everyone in the digital year, current and former Facebook marketing and advertising space is staff alleged they were instructed to wondering what’s next for metrics. Al- suppress conservative news from the ready, publishers and advertisers will question the validity of metrics that

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Key Insight What’s Next Watchlist Buoyed by charges of “fake news,” In a few years, AI systems will enable IBM Watson; Tencent; Baidu; Google; real-time fact-checking—powered by more sophisticated fact checking: ex- Amazon; Facebook; Twitter; news both people and algorithm—will be a plaining whether information was tak- organizations everywhere. priority for journalists now and in the en out of context, or exaggerated, or near future. downplayed. Soon, we might be able to fact-check statements with the Examples help of Augmented Reality. For example, during speeches and hearings, an Digital tools have made it easy to AR app could show the relationship report on a live event and publish in a person has to various funders and In a few years, AI systems will enable real time, but adding context—such as lobbyists every time they speak. more sophisticated fact checking. whether or not a source’s statement is factually accurate—usually happens News organizations have a tremen- after. Late in 2016, Google introduced dous opportunity to use AR and AI a fact-check tag to its Google News along with social media data and their service—readers can see fact checks own article databases, to build tools next to trending stories. As we now for real-time fact checking, adding a see on a near-daily basis, inaccuracies critical editorial layer that’s both good and falsehoods quickly spread on so- for the public interest and good for cial media masquerading as the truth. building brand reputation. At least when it comes to citing numbers and data, artificial intelligence will soon allow news organizations to automate the fact checking process.

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Key Insight Examples What’s Next As consumers shift to their mobile In the U.S., consumers now spend an Until news consumers have ubiqui- devices, developers are making sure average of five hours a day on their tous access to cheap, fast data, offline their apps work offline. mobile devices. As consumers move reading will be a necessity. News about our days—commuting, walking organizations that include seamless, around the office, or sitting through offline experiences will find sticker a Little League game—they still find audiences. themselves offline. Netflix, YouTube and Amazon Prime now feature Watchlist offline viewing, allowing consumers Tencent; Baidu; Google Play; Pocket; to temporarily download videos to Netflix now allows users to watch Amazon; news organizations every- watch at their leisure. videos offline. where. A number of news aggregators—including Google, Smartnews and Apple—want to capitalize on the time consumers devote to their screens, even when the WiFi signal is weak. The Washington Post’s progressive web app cuts mobile page load times from 4 seconds to 80 milliseconds and allows consumers to read news stories without a data or WiFi connection.

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Key Insight content. Better than buttons, con- What’s Next sumers can also speak their searches As news organizations venture into We’re starting to see novel attacks to a voice assistant and immediately podcasts, new search tools allow the against speech recognition AIs. get to the podcast they were trying newsroom—as well as news consum- Attacks can trick speech recognition to remember, to replay a news report ers—to find exactly what information systems into recognizing a synthetic they’d heard in the car, or to get a they’re looking for within audio-only voice, or sounds that are impercepti- series of clips related to a subject content. However we’re also finding ble to human ears, or even common they’re interested in. that speech recognition is vulnerable ambient noises in our homes (like the to new kinds of adversarial attacks. Startup Audioburst uses artificial phone ringing). Any of these audio intelligence to index audio broadcasts cues can trigger a smart system to and make them easier for consum- do something we don’t want, like Audio search engines offer another Examples ers to find. Rather than searching for make a purchase, or crank the volume way to find content. While developers have learned how keywords, Audioburst uses natural up to the maximum level. With our to quickly index and display web language processing to automatical- increased reliance on audio search, content, digital audio has always ly discover the meaning conveyed we’ll need to be more vigilant tracking remained an unsolved challenge. Now, and to surface the right content. For possible vulnerabilities. rather than searching for a topic and example, if a consumer wants an getting a bunch of hyperlinks to click update on the election, she can ask a through and listen to, consumers will Watchlist voice-activated app (Amazon’s Alexa, instead receive a series of buttons Audioburst; Amazon; Google; Apple; Google Home), which will sift through that play the exact snippet of audio Advanced Media; Viacom. audio information and deliver a set of that’s related to their search. Spotify clips. recently enabled audio search for its

058 Streamers 065 Augmented Reality

059 Connected TVs 066 AR Face Filters to Protect Individual’s 060 WebRTC identity

061 Streaming Social 067 AR as a Tool to Video Enhance Print

062 Degree Video 068 Mixed Reality Arcades 063 Holograms 069 VR For Marketing 064 Virtual Reality HIGH DEGREE OF CERTAINTY TRENDS 058 - 062 • EIGHTH YEAR ON THE LIST INFORMS ACT Video STRATEGY NOW KEEP REVISIT

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Key Insight television services. A recent survey Impact on media organizations from Deloitte paints an even worse Streaming services will erode lo- U.S. adults now spend close to an picture for traditional cable and cal broadcast news markets. These hour a day watching online video, satellite providers. The two leading services will also disrupt longer-form and increasingly we’re using our mo- reasons individuals kept paying for television news broadcasts. bile phones to access that content. television were the ability to watch But not all adults prefer video. A Pew live events and affordable cable along 059 Research Center survey found that with internet bundles. These two more Americans prefer to watch their Connected TVs factors do not represent a sustain- news (46%) than to read it (35%) or able advantage for traditional cable TVs that connect to the internet listen to it (17%). But the demograph- and satellite providers. Affordable certainly aren’t new. What’s changed Streaming services will erode local ics might surprise you: Americans internet is available worldwide and is penetration in average households broadcast news markets. age 50 or older prefer video, while prices should only continue to fall, and the availability of streaming apps the majority of 18 to 29-year-olds and successful livestreaming of sports that bypass the standard list of cable (42%) prefer reading the news. (either through the league or a social and public broadcasting channels, media provider) worldwide serves as such as Amazon Prime Video, Roku, 058 an effective test case that live events Hulu, YouTube, Showtime Anytime, Streamers can be successfully streamed through iPlayer (UK-only), All 4 (UK only), Playstation Now, HBO Now, Direct The 4th quarter of 2017 saw over other platforms. We expect to see the Now, iTunes, and of course, Netflix. 500,000 customers abandon their continued rise in sales of devices such cable and satellite television pack- as the Amazon Fire Stick, Google Impact on news organizations Chromecast, and Roku, with a steady ages. Best estimates show that Media organizations can take advan- deterioration in cable and satellite approximately 13.5 million homes do tage of connected TVs, offering richer subscriptions over the next couple of not currently subscribe to traditional content to maintain and grow audi- years. ence.

Impact on news organizations TV, and YouTube Live Streaming, look mersive journalism continue. Schools Video cont. For news organizations, this means to see news providers and the media such as Columbia University and the that rather than bridging comput- increasingly providing around the University of Southern California are ers to networks, which must route clock coverage of main events. What including 360-degree and VR based and relay information along various will be interesting to see is whether journalism in their curriculum. The channels, WebRTC and similar peer- companies institute paywalls for their next generation of upcoming jour- to-peer technologies could help content or use advertising to attempt nalists will be better versed into how computers talk to each other without to generate revenue. This also means to incorporate 360-degree and VR obstruction. This may seem like a that for the first time in history, no based approaches into both break- subtle change in Internet architecture, technical knowledge or specialty ing news and longer form videos. but consider the implications: you equipment is required to broadcast Both 360-degree and VR video have would no longer need a third-party the news. As a result, we are seeing the potential to enhance the user’s operator, like Skype, to videoconfer- a number of newsworthy events now experience in two distinct but import- ence with a friend—or to broadcast appearing, completely unfiltered, ant ways. In the context of breaking live news to consumers. Videos would across social media channels: funerals, news, 360-degree video lets the user A man holds a 360-degree camera. load and play faster and would have arrests, political rallies, conference capture the full scene of the ongo- no need to buffer. speeches, encounters with public ing event and not just the view the officials. person behind the camera shows 060 061 Impact on news organizations you. In longer form videos, 360-degree videos can be used to allow WebRTC Streaming Social Video While everyone can stream—and the viewer to become an interactive news organizations now have access WebRTC is the real-time communica- You have likely already seen live detective looking for clues from the to that content—we must ask whether tions technology supported by Goo- coverage of breaking events through scene of a crime, or to tour the site everything should be broadcast. News gle, Mozilla and Opera, and it powers Facebook Live, Twitter, YouTube or of an area ravaged by a hurricane. organizations need a framework to Google Hangouts. WebRTC can be Instagram livestream. According to 360-degree video has the potential determining whether rebroadcast- used to connect your smartphone to Cisco, more than 13% of the video to keep viewers increasingly engaged ing a murder, suicide or violent act the articles you’re reading on your watched daily is live content, and that in a time where user’s attention spans streamed via social video is in the desktop or tablet, displaying different number is continuously growing. Less are seemingly at an all-time low. publics interest. components depending on what of- than a month after launching its 24- hour news service TicToc, Bloomberg fers the best user experience. If a vid- 062 eo won’t display well on your current was reporting greater than 750,000 device, you could be offered a differ- daily viewers. With people increasing- 360-Degree Video ly watching content on their phones ent version automatically. Because Many news outlets such as the New and computer screens, the desire to WebRTC works from the browser, it’s York Times, CNN, Washington Post, get information live, the low barrier of also part of one of the other trends and Associated Press have begun us- entry to streaming live, and platforms we’re continuing to watch: connected ing 360-degree video, and we expect such as Facebook Watch, Instagram machines. to see the trend towards further im-

NEAR-FUTURE SCENARIO

We Were Wrong About Social Isolationism.

The idea that in we’d all be sitting alone in our homes, interacting via digital avatars as we completely lost touch with the outside world, turned out to be completely wrong. Instead, new platforms and hardware gave us fun ways to socialize in person. We’re spending more time in mixed reality movie theaters, which offer immersive entertainment. There are now mixed reality arcades everywhere. It’s the 1980s all over again, but with a twist: MR games, experiences, and meeting rooms are affordable, and they’re also accessible for those with hearing and visual impairments. We’re going to silent discos, where we wear color-coded wireless headsets connected to our favorite DJ’s spinning all night long. Now everyone can dance together, in one shared experience, even if they hate each other’s taste in music. We’re more connected to each other—and to the real world—than we ever imagined.

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Key Insight What You Need To Know goods from across the world into our households and workplaces, we will Mixed Reality (MR), also referred to About MR now begin to marvel at the ability of as Extended Reality (XR), combines AR, VR, 360-degree video and holo- MR to transport and immerse us in the physical and digital realms and grams have been part of our cultural distant environments without ever encompasses a number of technolo- consciousness for many years now leaving our everyday surroundings. gies: augmented reality (AR), virtual but have yet to establish themselves This presents a major opportunity reality (VR), 360-degree video and as indispensable, ubiquitous technol- for news organizations to provide holograms. These technologies can ogies. This coming year however, as transformational experiences for be used by all media and journalists the makers of MR devices including their audience, transporting them to as a way of enhancing or improving Head Mounted Displays and holo- otherwise unreachable sites from the VR is experienced wearing a pair of storytelling. gram projectors are able to decrease outer reaches of space to the inner goggles and a connected earpiece. costs and improve ease of use, we workings of the human body. Here is will see more devices being made a prioritized summary, based on our available to the average consumer, research and analysis, of how news and a subsequent increase in the organizations should invest their time number of news and entertainment and money with regard to MR. firms developing content and experiences for the platforms. 063 One of the most remarkable phenom- Holograms ena enabled by MR is the globaliza- Professional camera brand Red has tion of experience—where we once sold out pre-orders and pushed back were awestruck at the ability of the the release of their highly anticipat- internet to bring media, culture, and ed hologram-generating Hydrogen

Mixed Reality phone, but with a price tag over a 064 thousand dollars the device will likely Virtual Reality only attract serious tech enthusiasts cont. for the time being. A second gener- Virtual Reality (VR) is a computer ation of Microsoft’s HoloLens Mixed simulated environment. As a teth- Reality headset, touting a lower price ered experience, VR is experienced point, lighter weight construction, wearing a pair of goggles, and it can and greater ease of wear, is slated stimulate sensations of being phys- for launch in early 2019. In the en- ically present in the scenes a user is tertainment space, startup Eyellu- viewing. VR can be experienced un- sion recently raised a seed round of tethered as well, by slipping a mobile funding to grow their business, which phone into a special mask. Because produces concert tours featuring the technology is in its early stages, holographic versions of famous late with relatively little content available musicians backed by live performers. beyond gaming, the relative value of In an industrial setting, hologram can VR HMDs isn’t yet attractive for aver- be used by designers or engineers to age consumers. save on training costs and give em- Bottom Line ployees a truly immersive experience The VR marketplace isn’t mature in their projects. There are numerous enough for widespread adoption, companies such as Realfiction, Look- and because VR content producing Glass Factory, Dell, and Google tion requires the creation of entire who are betting that companies and environments, cost-effective oppor- individuals will be interested in holo- Smart glasses will soon bring AR to tunities for news organizations are gram based technologies. everyday people. limited. Progress in entertainment and Bottom Line gaming applications of VR may pave Due to high costs and limited appli- the way for future adoption by other cations, hologram devices for indi- industries. viduals are likely to be rolled out in professional contexts before becoming popular for personal use, at which point news organizations may want to consider producing custom content for holographic platforms. Holograph- ic projections intended for public consumption are currently best suited for entertainment contexts.

SCENARIO

Plausible Scenarios for Globalization of Experience VR Revolutionizes, Brings Together Atrophy of the Human Being as a Leads to Increased Social and the Gaming and Entertainment Physically Social Animal Virtual Reality in the Environmental Activism Industries next 15 Years Exponential advancements in VR and VR has been touted for its ability to With its non-exclusionary price tag AI allow for the creation of a faithful heighten a user’s ability to feel emo- and democratizing appeal for users and customizable digital verisimilitude tion based on immersive content, a of diverse backgrounds and interests, of our reality. Humans recede into full- quality that proves productive in rais- VR technology creates a new culture body VR suits, capable of producing ing awareness and action surrounding of fully absorptive social gaming and a full range of sensorial stimuli, and humanitarian and environmental caus- new styles of entertainment media real-life interactions become virtu- es. Users are able to witness firsthand content, all accessible from a single ally non-existent. Our imaginations site-specific environmental and social device, and from the comfort of one’s become our reality, at the expense of crises and are moved as a result, in- own home. Gaming and video content our physical form. creasing compassion and motivation as we know it are redefined entirely, to take action. with new hybrid forms emerging that blend narrative and interactive elements in sprawling immersive digital worlds.

Mixed Reality 065 Augmented Reality cont. Augmented Reality (AR) doesn’t simulate an entirely new environment, but rather overlays digital elements onto your natural field of vision. AR is often experienced with a Head Mounted Display or smart eyewear, with devices by leading brands like Apple, Google, and Microsoft, as well as the lesser known Vuzix and Meta, either in development or already on the market. Magic Leap, an AR startup that’s generated tremendous buzz and billions in funding, is set to release their hotly anticipated Magic Leap One headset to the public by the start of 2019. Apart from the HMD market, Sony introduced a different sort of AR product with the Xperia Touch projector, which can transform into an interactive touch screen. AR can also be experienced on mobile devices, as in the case of Niantic’s Pokémon Go, the popular gaming app in which virtual creatures, visible via one’s smartphone camera, are scat- tered throughout buildings, landscapes, and city streets worldwide to be tracked down and “captured” by the players. Bottom Line AR offers significant market potential for news organizations in the near-future, with the potential to facilitate delivery of real-time reactive content based on recognizable elements in a user’s field of vision. © 2018-2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 101 BY MARC PALATUCCI

SCENARIO

Plausible Scenarios for AR Gaming and Education Leads to Workplace Applications of AR Dissolution of a Unified Collective Improved Collective Health Increase Productivity, Decrease Reality Augmented Reality in With games like Pokémon Go leading Training Costs the next 15 Years AR comes to define the context in the way, AR significantly increases the Having adopted AR systems before which the average person experi- amount of daily activity for the aver- the general public, and with signif- ences their daily life, but as a result age individual, decreasing the health icant resources and common goals of over-customization, people lack risks caused by a sedentary lifestyle. supporting their efforts, companies a common perspective and become Encouraged by games and educa- make the most efficient and effec- severely alienated from one another. tional applications featuring digital tive use of the technology by imple- Given the ability to define their senso- elements distributed throughout cities menting it to improve infrastructure, ry perception of other people, places and landscapes, people spend more operations, training, and scenario and things based on personal prefer- time on their feet and out of doors. simulation. Everything from collec- ence, individuals become less able to Mental health, fitness, and life expec- tive product design to workplace align with one another through shared tancies improve. emergency drills become less costly experience. The rate of real-life social and more effective, boosting overall interaction plummets and the human productivity. race becomes irreversibly fractured.

Mixed Reality 066 067 AR Face Filters to Protect AR as a Tool to Enhance cont. Individual’s identity Print Some media outlets have begun using One trend we expect to continue to AR features like Snapchat face filters see grow is the AR as a compliment as a way of concealing the identity to print. Media companies are us- of the person speaking while still ing AR in print as a way to further allowing the viewer to see the facial engage consumers. AR is incorpo- expressions of the person speaking. rated through two distinct channels: The Hindustan Times has used these content and advertising. Services face filters when talking to underage like blippar add animations, models, rape victims allowing them an oppor- or images that can only be unlocked tunity to tell their story while protect- using a smartphone. Companies such ing their privacy. as Max Factor and Net-A-Porter have used AR to allow users to scan the items they like and directly purchase them through their mobile phone. The success of AR driven ad campaigns represents a win-win for both the media company and the advertiser, and brands will continue to use this innovation due to the discounted price of print advertising.

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Key Insight are opening up everywhere, giving point, it might be easier and more everyone the ability to strap in to a cost effective to buy a membership There are a host of fun, interactive host of games—but this time around, rather than a new flight suit every few mixed reality games on the mar- they don’t take quarters. Startup Vir- months. ket—but not everyone can afford the tual World Arcade offers a member- computer and gaming equipment ship packages for unlimited VR time. Watchlist necessary to play. As a result, a new In Tokyo, VR Park offers more than kind of arcade for the next-generation Intel; Grand View Research; HTC; basic games—players can opt-in to of gamer is coming to a venue near Samsung; Viveland; Oculus; Face- swinging harnesses, flying platforms you. book; Alphabet; VRNISH; Inception and platforms that simulate bungee VR. jumping, flying and yes, even falling Mixed Reality arcades are bring- Examples off skyscrapers. ing games to everyone using new In the 1980s, video game arcades be- business models and cutting-edge came popular—at first with geeky kids What’s Next equipment. and then the mainstream masses, as Mixed Reality arcades are proving Pac Man, Galaga and Space Invaders to be a big business. We expect that consoles popped up all around the as the MR market matures, we’ll see world. They took off because kids and additional arcades opening up ev- adults alike both loved playing them— erywhere. One distinction that might and because early at-home consoles keep MR arcades from going the way and computers were still too costly of Pac Man—all the haptic interfaces. for the average person. We’re in a As games become more immersive, similar transition now, as VR games players will need to update more than move from the fringe to the main- their headsets and consoles. At some stream. Mixed Reality gaming parks

Cinematic VR Haptics of showing the images in exact syn- a result of simulated motion while chronization with the user. When that wearing an HMD. The issue was well VR created with video and images In addition to a VR headset, hand- happens, a user moves her head, but documented among earlier HMD from the real world. (The alternative held controllers are often used. Some the images she’s seeing lag behind users, but makers of headsets have is computer-generated graphics.) are equipped with haptic feedback, a few fractions of a second. This lag since taken measures in an attempt which gives the user the sensation of Extended Reality is a reason why some people experi- to prevent this effect. touching something in the simulated ence “simulation sickness.” Extended Reality (XR) is a catch-all environment or receiving touch-back Social VR describing every environment result- reactions. Presence When two or more people are wired ing from combinations of the real and When a user feels as though she’s ful- in to a VR simulation and able to the virtual, as well as every interac- Head mounted display (HMD) ly immersed within a simulation, like share the experience by observing tion between humans and machines This is the headset you’ve seen peo- she’s actually there, she’s achieved each other, interacting or participat- in relation to those environments and ple wearing. It typically includes a “presence.” ing in joint activities. the devices used to create them. XR strap both around and over the head, encompasses VR, AR, and MR, and which secures the screen to your Refresh rate Stitching may come to supplant MR as the face. Some HMDs include built-in How quickly the images are updat- The process of combining video from most inclusive term for digitally inte- headphones as well as sensors for ed. Higher refresh rates cut down on different cameras into one, spherical grated realities. head tracking. latency and provide a more realistic video suitable for VR. This typically Eye tracking Head tracking simulation. Ideal refresh rates are requires a tremendous amount of above 60 frames per second. editing to fill in gaps, reorient scenes A system that can read the position Some HMDs are equipped with and seamlessly meld video streams of the user’s eyes while using VR. Eye special sensors that track the exact Room scale so that the simulation looks authen- tracking software allows a user to movements of the user’s head. The This is the tethered version of VR tic. aim correctly with her head while in a sensors then send feedback to the that offers users the capability of simulation. system, which moves the images and walking around a room and interact- VR face Field of view (FoV) audio a user experiences in her field ing with virtual items, as they walk When a user has been in a simula- of vision in real-time. around in the physical world. So if tion, a few things happen: the head What a user can see in her visual field you take a step in the real world, mounted display tends to leave a while in a simulation. The viewing In-ear monitors (IEM) you’re also taking a step in the virtual temporary imprint on the skin, not angle for an average, healthy human These are earbuds that work with simulation. For this to work, rooms unlike a pair of swimming goggles. eye is about 200 degrees, so a field head mounted displays that don’t need to be mapped in advance. Users also tend to relax into a slack- of view close to or greater than that offer built-in headphones. jawed look, with their mouths slightly is optimal, because it creates a true Simulator Sickness Latency agape. sense of being within an environ- A nauseated feeling experienced as ment. Sometimes, the system isn’t capable

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Key Insight What’s Next holiday where you have the driving skills of Formula One superstar Lewis Emerging research suggests that vir- VR is being used for both B-to-B and Hamilton. This, of course, highlights tual reality storytelling, when it’s done B-to-C marketing. Key Technology, an impending ethical challenge. well, rewires all of us—we are likely to which manufactures food processing develop new belief biases as a result. systems, built a VR marketing expe- VR headset sales jumped 75% year rience to help vendors see its digital over year in 2017, and we anticipate Examples food sorting platform in action. Lowes more growth in the coming year. In stores offers virtual skills training in the near-future brands will have a For more than a decade, scientists VR, guiding DIYers through home unique opportunity to tap directly have been studying “virtual reality improvement projects. Both BMW into our minds, persuading us through exposure therapy,” which has been and Volvo have created apps allow- immersive storytelling. A woman wears a Samsung VR device used extensively to treat veterans ing would-be buyers to test drive to test drive a BMWi. suffering from post-traumatic stress one of their cars. But unlike the usual Watchlist syndrome. Because VR is complete- test drive with a nagging salesper- ly immersive, it can closely simulate HQSoftware; Deep VR; 360 Profilms; son trying to convince you to buy nearly any scenario. Patients, guided Light Sail VR; Perception Squared; the upgraded sport mode package, by trained therapists, are embedded TaKanto VR; Circos VR; Helios Inter- you instead interact with the vehi- into VR stories that represent a trau- active; Rewind; Reverge VR; BBH; cle on gorgeous open roads, in the ma they’ve experienced. Over time, Goodby Silverstein & Partners; Virtual- best possible weather, all by yourself. this therapy results in new neuropath- SKY; Leo Burnett; BBDO; Facebook; Spend enough time with the apps, ways—beliefs, attitudes and reactions Droga5; Ogilvy & Mather; Razorfish; and your belief bias will shove your are changed, for better or for worse. Weiden+Kennedy; GSD&M; VML; logical mind into the back seat. You This presents an interesting opportu- Critical Mass; Three One Zero; Valve; might start to think that inside one of nity for marketers. Wevr; Alphabet; Innerspace VR; Start- those cars, every day is a traffic free VR; Epic Games; Survios

070 Smart Glasses

071 Hearables / Earables

072 Head Mounted Displays

073 Haptics

074 Thinkables

075 Embedables

076 Smartwatches HIGH DEGREE OF CERTAINTY TRENDS 070 - 076 • SEVENTH YEAR ON THE LIST INFORMS ACT Wearables STRATEGY NOW KEEP REVISIT

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Key Insight ables, we’re seeing more successful transmitted instantaneously to busi- products and features focused mainly nesses, providing key insights on user When it comes to wearables, expec- on media, messaging, education, behavior and enabling highly targeted tations have long outweighed the re- gaming, and health. Even the once-re- content distribution. Plus, wearable ality, with early high-profile missteps viled Google Glass has found a new cameras like Snapchat Spectacles or from Google and Intel, slow sales role in didactic applications, assisting the GoPro Hero could facilitate live growth for the Apple Watch, and little with training and procedures in oper- citizen journalism video footage from to speak of from the world of fashion, ating rooms and on factory floors. vantage points otherwise inaccessi- an industry many expected to excel at ble to news bureaus. Familiarity with wearable tech. As wearable tech begins to approach wearables and their various applica- critical mass in the coming years, However as of September 2018, the tions could prove highly valuable in Neurable’s brain-computer interfaces news and media firms that invest Future Today Institute is tracking 541 the foreseeable future. enable hands-free control in virtual in content tailored for the portable wearable devices, in various stages of reality. products—think bite-size briefings development—from fringe experimen- for wrist-mounted displays, or POV Watchlist tation to mass-market sales. The Fu- how-to’s for smart eyewear—will be Apple; Samsung; Fitbit; Google; ture Today Institute estimates that by poised to capitalize on the trend. In Jabra; Garmin; GoPro; Huawei; Xiaomi; the end of 2019, 360 million wearable addition, news organizations should Snapchat; Nike; Under Armour; Face- devices will be sold worldwide. More consider wearable tech as a two-way book; Immersion; Neuralink; Neurable; than half are dedicated to fitness or street—not only a means of providing Apple; Microsoft; Intel. biometrics, while others are intended media to consumers, but also receiv- for gaming, work and medical moni- ing information from them. Personal toring. Global sales should generate data ranging from sight lines and revenue of $39 billion in the coming heart rates to sleep patterns and year. As companies continue to learn ambient weather conditions could be what works and what doesn’t in wear-

menting with audio applications built cate right and left turns to the wearer 070 Wearables for earable interfaces. through haptic vibrations, and Face- Smart Glasses book has even tested a device worn on the forearm that can translate a cont. This will be the year that developers 072 limited lexicon of words into a series start experimenting with Magic Leap, Head Mounted Displays of patterned vibrations. This tech- whose smart glasses project light Head Mounted Displays or HMDs are nology and the adoption of a haptic directly into the user’s eye, making it most commonly applied in the con- “language,” though far from imminent, seem as though digital objects exist texts of VR, gaming, and immersive could be of use to news organizations in the real world. Don’t force connec- simulation. Though the devices have in communicating headlines or tweets tions between Google Glass and what yet to truly take off with household to consumers without the need of an comes next. Glass was a successful consumers, possibly due to issues audiovisual interface. technology in search of a market. with discomfort and nausea, leading devices like the HTC Vive and Oculus 074 071 Rift show potential to grow beyond a Hearables / Earables niche market of gamers and profes- Thinkables sionals. Apple hopes to make waves No longer the stuff of science fiction, In-ear computers, otherwise known in the HMD space by combining AR thinkables are the category of wear- as earables, are a burgeoning sector and VR in a single ultra-high-resolu- ables that create an interface between of wearables. Integrating features like tion device, slated for release in 2020. the brain and technology, allowing the voice commands, biometric tracking, For the time being, the main opportu- user to control designated devices us- selective noise-canceling, music and nity for news integration is via immer- ing only their thoughts. Boston-based data storage, and software integra- sive 360 degree video. startup Neurable created a VR game tion, these devices are essentially controlled via thinkable interface, headphones with far more advanced which helped them recently secure levels of functionality. Future versions 073 series A funding to continue research of Apple’s popular wireless EarPods Haptics in the field, and 4DForce makes a will be able to monitor temperature, headset that converts brainwaves into perspiration and heart rate during In the context of wearables, haptics signals a computer can understand, exercise or sports—and those earbuds describe devices that communicate with gaming, wellness, and entertain- will be used to control devices such with the user via tactile sensations— ment as the intended application. as our phones using only head ges- the vibration of a smart watch as a Most ambitious is Neuralink, a neuro- tures. The Bragi Dash earbuds double means of notification, for example. technology company founded by Elon as a personal assistant, responding to As wearables evolve, the mechanics Musk that is developing a bio-adap- gesture as well as voice, and multis- of haptics will become more nuanced tive neural lace to be “worn” on the port earpieces from KUAI are water- and complex, as will their applica- human brain, which Musk hopes will proof for use while swimming. News tions. Swedish sportswear brand POC initially help to treat neurological organizations should begin experi- built a prototype cycling backpack integrated with GPS directions to indi- diseases, and eventually allow for en-

hancement of the brain by connecting 076 Wearables it directly with the internet. Facebook Smartwatches is also active in thinkables, working cont. to develop a device that can deduce Smartwatches and smart wristbands what word one is thinking of by read- represent one of the most approach- ing their brainwaves. able types of wearables, with the Apple Watch and Samsung Gear 075 leading the market. Global sales of the wrist-mounted devices are Embedables accelerating, though they are still At the extreme fringe of the wear- largely considered auxiliary devices ables trend, groups of biotech and to one’s mobile phone. As they gain body-modification enthusiasts, some- in popularity, they stand to evolve times referred to as “grinders,” seek into primary devices in their own to embed technology directly into right, with developers building more their bodies. Implants range from dec- advanced apps and features tailored orative LED lights, to Bluetooth-en- to the product, making use of loca- abled biometric devices, to RFID tion services, motion response, and chips placed under the skin of the hands-free functionality. The future of hand and used in place of keycards to smart watches is promising, and news unlock electronic doors. This is a high- organizations should consider how ly niche trend, with no obvious oppor- best to adapt their content to these tunity for news organizations, though devices in order to gain a foothold in one popular practice in this subcul- the wearables space. ture is to implant magnets in the ears that act as headphones, which could potentially be used to consume audio media. Due to the health risks associated with implanting technology into the human body, embedables are unlikely to enter the mainstream in the near future.

MID-FUTURE CATASTROPHIC SCENARIO FOR WEARABLES

Rise of Wearable Tech Leads To The Surrender of Personal Autonomy

We’ve already heard cautionary tales of betrayal by the devices we’ve wel- Many of the tech companies in question are the very same firms that will be comed into our homes—smart speakers eavesdropping on us, gaming con- heavily involved in the hardware and software of the fast-growing wearables soles tracking our movements, laptop cameras surreptitiously peering into market, and knowing the access they secretively granted to the government, our private lives. Now imagine a future for wearable devices where we’re it is not far-fetched to think they might do the same for companies with willingly strapping those microphones, cameras, and trackers to our bodies, whom they wanted to curry favor. With its tremendous influence on public lured by the benefits they provide us but unaware that we are subjecting opinion, the news media industry would be a likely candidate for collusive ourselves to extremely invasive levels of surveillance. Add to this premise the behavior. Given access to user data, news and media agencies could acquire possibility of biometric devices that communicate directly with our neurologi- exhaustive personal information about a large portion of the public. If a dis- cal and bodily systems, and entire populations could be shockingly vulnerable honest or nefarious media organization decided that the beliefs or behaviors to manipulation by forces beyond their control. of a particular subset of the population—defined along parameters of age, race, religion, sexual orientation, or political affiliation, for example—were Take the United States, for example. You may remember the scandal sur- detrimental to their interests, members of the subset could be easily identi- rounding the US National Security Agency’s PRISM program, in which tech fied, tracked, and targeted with content to exploit their psychological profile, giants including Microsoft, Google, Facebook, Skype, and Apple reportedly disrupt their lives and influence their actions. Even—or perhaps especially—if made massive amounts of private user data available to the government in implemented in subtle ways, manipulation of the populace via wearables some capacity without informing their users. Revelations of the US govern- could have devastating effects. ment’s violation of its citizens’ privacy came about when Edward Snowden, a contractor for the NSA at the time, leaked classified documents pertaining to PRISM. A public outcry followed, but the program is still active, and calls for transparency did little to shed light on any continued alliances between the NSA and Silicon Valley.

077 CubeSats 083 Drone Swarms

078 Drone Delivery 084 Searching The Internet of Physical 079 Increasing Patents Things and Calls For New Regulation 085 Intelligent Cameras

080 Drone Lanes 086 Faster Connectivity With 5G 081 Sense And Avoid Technology

082 Microdrones and Drones Used In Dangerous/ Hard- To-Reach Areas HIGH DEGREE OF CERTAINTY TREND 077 • THIRD YEAR ON THE LIST INFORMS ACT CubeSats STRATEGY NOW KEEP REVISIT

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Key Insight land and beam them back down to bined valuation of companies such as earth to help farmers assess their Planet, Airbus D&S, MDA and Digital- Entrepreneurs are building and pre- crops. Image analysis software can Globe is well into the tens of billions. paring to launch thousands of low- tell big box retailers, such as Walmart, cost, high-value satellites in the next how many cars are parked in their lots What’s Next three years. These satellites are small, and look for trends over time. They capable of communicating with each The Federal Aviation Administra- can then do the same with a compet- other, and will photograph every inch tion is projecting “an unprecedented itor’s parking lots to gather strategic of Earth’s surface every day of the number” of satellite launches between intelligence. Mining companies can year. 2018-2020. This will allow journalists, survey a swath of land to see who’s companies, governments and private started drilling and whether they’ve citizens to gain access to the images The PhoneSat 2.5, a CubeSat built at Examples struck oil. Satellites monitor traffic, and tools for all sorts of purposes. NASA’s Ames Research Center. Miniature satellites, otherwise known polar ice caps, and even us. Unlike a CubeSats and image analysis will as CubeSats, aren’t new technology. traditional, large satellite, when one help us better understand the pulse They’ve actually been in use by space CubeSats goes offline or gets dam- of our cities, gain a deeper view into agencies for years. What’s changing aged, the rest of the fleet still works. weather events and dive into crimi- is the launch technology that lifts Near-real time images, coupled with nal activity. But that goes both ways. CubeSats into orbit. Heavy investment machine learning and analysis tools, CubeSats could become a national into propulsion systems—not to men- is big business. Governments, big security liability. tion significant advancements in tech- agricultural corporations, intelligence nology and cheaper components—are agencies, shipping companies and making it easier to mass-produce tiny logistics firms all want access, so satellites in a factory and launch them they’re willing to pay tens of millions for a variety of purposes. Fleets of of dollars a year for access. The com- CubeSats now take photos of farm-

CubeSats cont. Watchlist Space Systems Loral; MDA; Planet; Planetary Resources; Airbus D&S; DigitalGlobe; National Geospatial Intelligence Agency; 3 Gimbals; Space Exploration Technologies Corp; Orbital Insight; Google; Space- Know; Capella Space Inc; OneWeb; SpacePharma; Santa Clara University; Technische Universitat Berlin; Tokyo Institute of Technology; University of Tokyo; California Polytechnic Uni- versity; Cornell University; Boeing; Delft University of Technology; NASA Ames Research Center; Transcelestial; NSLComm; Earthcube; Aerial & Mar- itime; Fleet Space; Astrocast; Kepler Communications; GeoOptics; Hera Systems; Sky and Space Global; Astro Digital; Kanagawa University; The Aerospace Corporation; Los Alamos National Labratory; NRL Naval Center for Space; Space and Missile Defense Command; Satellogic; Spire; US Air Force; Lawrence Livermore National Labratory; MIT; Shenzhen Aerospace Donganghong; National University of Defense Technology (China); Shang- hai Engineering Center for Microsatel- lites (China); SRI International; Naval Postgraduate School.

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Key Insight of new stories to cover, especially for it had authorized a three-pilot pro- reporters working logistics and busi- gram to test drone traffic under Drones are now available in an array ness beats—and it potentially means different conditions in “innovation of sizes and form factors, from light- the end of newspaper delivery by zones.” In Europe, the E.U. has tenta- weight planes and coptors to tiny, humans, forever. tively agreed to regulations, which at machines no bigger (or louder) than publication date was still waiting for a hummingbird. They now include 079 authorization from member coun- powerful sense and avoid technology tries. Canada, the United Kingdom, and the ability to fly on their own. Increasing Patents and Calls For New Regulation and the International Civil Aviation Organization are actively writing new 078 Whether drone delivery services ever regulations. The results of these pilot A DJI Inspire 2 flown in Los Angeles. Drone Delivery get off the ground largely hinges on programs will dictate the likelihood of The camera hangs below and the legislation and corporate develop- Towards the end of 2016, commercial drone delivery in 2020 and beyond. landing gear rises up out of the frame. ment. If the number of patents Am- drone deliveries launched. U.S.-based azon was awarded in 2017 for drone Zipline brought its drone delivery 080 related technologies (43+) is any system to Rwanda, where it delivered Drone Lanes indication, retailers are anticipating vital blood supplies. UPS, Amazon government approval. Amazon was We’re about to have overhead con- and DHL all tested their own fleets of granted a patent for a self-destruct- gestion—which means soon, you can drones. Legislation will soon catch up ing drone that can disassemble itself expect invisible drone lanes over- with the technology. We anticipate in case of emergency, while Walmart head. Amateur drone pilots continue that aviation authorities will start to was granted a patent for a drone that to cause trouble for commercial and act in 2019-2020, at which point com- delivers items off store shelves to private airline pilots. Currently, the mercial drone deliveries will finally people while they shop. In late 2017, FAA does not allow drones to fly near take flight in earnest. This means lots the Trump Administration announced the airspace of airports—but while

Drones cont. there are no-fly zones, there aren’t 082 083 no-fly circumstances. In Singapore, Microdrones and Drones Drone Swarms researchers are considering the via- Used In Dangerous/ Hard- bility of different options including Hundreds of micro-drones can be “air-lanes,” the development of “air- To-Reach Areas deployed at once and are now capa- blocks” and “air-fences” to manage Industries are beginning to utilize ble of moving as one, technological traffic. NASA and the FAA are work- smaller, rugged, AI-powered drones organism in the sky. They’re so fast, ing on initiatives scheduled to end to access dangerous and hard-to- that cameras have a difficult time in 2019 and 2025 respectively, which reach spaces. Drones are being used capturing them in real-time. This tech- could provide possible nation-wide to survey the insides of underground nology was developed by the military, solutions for managing drone traffic. mines, ballasts of tanks, and inside and it’s been used for dazzling light As sky infrastructure gets designed nuclear facilities. Home and building shows at Disney Parks and during the and developed, look for a potential inspectors have also begun using Super Bowl halftime show. Of course, emerging market for companies in drones to inspect rooftops and sides drone swarms aren’t always benevo- infrastructure management and for of buildings. Drone adoption for these lent. Early in 2018, a swarm carrying AI cloud-based monitoring of the purposes could result in reducing risk explosives, said to be controlled by friendly skies. to human life, and cost savings as- Syrian rebels, attacked two Russian sociated with shortened downtimes. military bases. 081 Facebook’s launch of an internet-pro- Sense And Avoid Tech- viding drone along with AT&T’s suc- nology cessful use of a cellular signal drone in Puerto Rico also highlight addition- Robots harnessing neural networks al signals that drones could become a and artificial intelligence can make useful and prevalent tool in providing inferences and decisions when pro- basic services to disparaged areas grammed to do so. That’s because or locations lacking basic forms of of sense and avoid technology. This infrastructure. year, drones will be programmed to navigate along the path of GPS waypoints—and they’ll make decisions midair about the best path to take and when to avoid objects like buildings, trees and mountains. Or other drones, for that matter.

© 2018-2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 116 HIGH DEGREE OF CERTAINTY TREND 084 • SECOND YEAR ON THE LIST INFORMS ACT Searching The Internet STRATEGY NOW KEEP REVISIT of Physical Things VIGILANT IMPACT IMMEDIATE LONGER-TERM IMPACT LONGER-TERM LATER WATCH

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Key Insight real-world objects, as well as all of the counter drugs in order to spot coun- devices connected to the Internet of terfeits. Osram expects that there will The Internet of Things—that massive Things. be consumer products able to search interconnection between all of our the physical world launching in the smart devices and the internet—is What’s Next next few years. Meantime, MatchMak- growing at breakneck speed. We al- er Exchange is an “Internet of DNA,” ready have billions of physical devices Shodan and Thingful are search en- matching the DNA from sick people connected to the internet, but what gines for IoT devices. It was intended around the world to help researchers about also searching for real-world as a security tool to help IT profes- discover rare genes. It’s not unrealistic things? sionals keep track of all the devices to say that in the near future, every- connected to a network—but hackers thing you see (and even the things also found that they could remote- Shodan is a searchable internet of Examples you can’t) will become searchable via ly access baby cameras and garage things. Several years ago, Amazon updat- a distributed network. But what if the doors. German lighting manufacturer ed its mobile app to allow people to real-world gets hacked? It’s possible Osram built a tiny chip that can scan shop for real-world objects by scan- that someone could re-label contam- a bar of chocolate to determine how ning their barcodes. Its next iteration inated medication as pure. As the much cacao is inside. Its chip helps let users take and upload a photo. searchable physical IoT grows, we will power a consumer-grade molecular Now, you only need to wave your need a new system to verify searches. spectrometer built by Israeli start- smartphone near an object you want up Consumer Physics, which allows to get more information on, or you anyone to extract information out of Watchlist can directly add it to your shopping food and pills. This could enable you Shodan; Thingful; Qualcomm; Intel; cart. Online search giants like Google to scan a piece of chicken in order to Alphabet; Microsoft; Apple; Tencent; and Bing have made it easy to find search the fat and calories on your Alibaba; Baidu; Amazon; Osram; Con- just about any information in the dig- plate. Their research is also able to sumer Physics; MatchMaker Exchange ital realm. The idea is to let us search recognize prescription and over-the-

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Key Insight having to beg attendees to fill out What’s Next post-conference surveys!). Google Cameras themselves are getting Advancements in smart camera tech- launched AIY Vision Kit, a smart smarter, and they now have on-device nology are critical to the future of our camera kit that works with Rasberry AI capabilities. They are able to listen future AI ecosystem. Soon, they will Pi—the company is hoping that DIY to and watch what’s in the frame, then be able to see in the dark. Recogni- enthusiasts and developers will start make decisions based on that infor- tion algorithms will do more than spot building smart camera applications. mation. That might include locking people and pets. They’ll connect with Yves Béhar, who designed the August a door, recording a conversation, or other IoT devices, making autono- smart lock, created a new home se- following a robber as he runs down mous decisions—like when to lock the curity camera called the Hive View—it the street. doors, whether to close off bridge Amazon’s smart camera system automatically sends smartphone noti- access, and which roommate gets the includes pre-trained models for deep fications when it detects any unusual last slice of pie. learning skills. Examples motion or sound. Engineers at the Late in 2017, Amazon Web Services University of Washington have devel- announced a $250 AI-powered cam- oped a system of networked cameras Watchlist era called DeepLens that includes that can automatically track people Amazon; Alphabet; Microsoft; Qual- optical character recognition, as well as they move. Combined with facial comm; Intel; Tencent; University of as image and object recognition. A and object recognition algorithms Washington; Microsoft; Camera Cul- smart camera would enable compa- and AI, smart cameras will provide ture Research Group at the MIT Media nies to remotely count and monitor unprecedented security opportunities. Lab; Institute of Anthropomatics & warehouse inventories. They could They will be used in our cars, bringing Robotics at the Karlsruhe Institute also let conference organizers and us one big step closer to hybrid-au- of Technology; National Instruments; Hollywood movie studios gauge the tonomous vehicles, where drivers will Electronic Frontier Foundation; Aus- level of enthusiasm during perfor- choose to take control of the wheel trian Institute of Technology; Universi- mances (no more focus groups or or allow the car to drive itself during ty of Birmingham stop-and-go traffic. © 2018-2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 118 HIGH DEGREE OF CERTAINTY TREND 086 • FOURTH YEAR ON THE LIST INFORMS ACT Faster Connectivity With 5G STRATEGY NOW KEEP REVISIT

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Key Insight driverless cars, smart cities, and Watchlist smart grids will all rely on 5G. 5G trials, supported by the Federal Federal Communications Commission; Communications Commission and What’s Next European Union; Qualcomm; Intel; the European Union, are underway ISPs. around the world. Local internet service providers have been reluctant to upgrade their net- Examples works, but that’s starting to change. Already, some carriers are integrating 5G is the fifth generation of wireless Gigabit LTE into their existing net- technology. We had 1G in the early works, a sort of pre-5G upgrade. In 5G will help to power city infrastruc- 1990s and 2G in the late 90s, which the U.S., AT&T and Verizon have both ture. enabled us to send text messages announced limited-scale 5G, though between two mobile devices. 3G it’s more likely the networks will be supported our ability to browse the ready in late 2019 or 2020. Howev- internet. Now, with 4G, we’re able to er, once the networks are ready, the download and upload large videos. changeover to 5G-enabled devices 5G will dramatically increase the will be swift. speeds at which we connect—we’ll be able to pull HD and 3D video and Hardware manufacturers like Qual- use VR in the cloud, since download comm are readying 5G modems and speeds will hover around 10 gigabits advanced chipsets. Globally, there will per second, which will be a boon for be a new wave of spectrum auctions news organizations that distribute (and arguments). video content. But it isn’t just our phones that will use the connection:

087 Media Consolidation

088 Ad Blockers HIGH DEGREE OF CERTAINTY TREND 087 • FOURTH YEAR ON THE LIST INFORMS ACT Media Consolidation STRATEGY NOW KEEP REVISIT

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Key Insight of 21st Century Fox since the summer ington State have suggested that rise of 2018. Discovery Communications in talk radio, expansion of cable TV, Digital audiences increase as mar- completed a merger with the Scripps and the internet all coincided with gins continue to shrink for traditional Networks and Time Magazine was increased elite polarization in the US. media companies. Ad-based reve- acquired by Meredith Corporation for The Columbia Journalism Review has nue models are difficult to sustain, $2.8 billion only to be put up for sale reported on the rise of news deserts, especially for local media outlets again four months later. NBCUniversal American towns with no local news and many are shutting their doors. has continued to make equity invest- coverage. Politico reported on the Deregulation from the FCC is paving ments in Buzzfeed and Snapchat to clear correlation between lack of local OpenAP is a consortium of TV pub- the way for large media corporations grow its digital portfolio. news outlets and Trump supporters in lishers headed by Turner and Viacom. to continue to consolidate through the 2016 presidential elections. News- acquisitions and vertical integration. Niche digital outlets with substantial rooms are relying more and more on audiences have also been forced to wire services like the AP and Reuters close. The Gothamist and DNAInfo Examples as they cut staff under budget pres- were shut down last year after em- This year we saw the further consol- sures. ployees voted to unionize; the Hairpin idation of news and media compa- and the Awl ceased editorial opera- However, media consolidation does nies, across all traditional distribution tions in early 2018 due to lack of ad not mean lack of options. Large channels: television, radio and print. revenue. Media darlings like Buzzfeed media corporations have an incentive IHeartMedia, owner of the largest ra- and Vice both missed revenue targets to serve a wide and diverse audience dio network in the US, filed for bank- by over $60 million. so that they can offer more selection ruptcy with $20B in debt. Its next to advertisers. In order to secure and largest rival, Cumulus filed for bank- Media consolidation is a trend that sustain audiences, some media outlets ruptcy a few months earlier. Disney matters because it directly impacts are adopting a market segmentation and Comcast have been in a bidding the quality and diversity of journalism. and content differentiation strategy war to buy the entertainment division Researchers at Harvard and Wash-

by scheduling shows with stronger What’s Next the revenue losses from trends like Media positions, louder personalities, and cord-cutting, skinny-bundling and The repeal of net neutrality and con- more polarized political stances. Fox internet TV streaming packages. tinued deregulation of the FCC under Consolidation News and MSNBC, often seen as polar With traditional media corporations Ajit Pai will likely mean that large me- opposites on the political spectrum, owning the majority of ISPs in the US, dia corporations, especially telecoms cont. both dominated the May 2018 cable it is unlikely that these corporations like AT&T and Comcast, can increase news rankings. will create internet-only packages profits by prioritizing internet traffic that give more power and revenue In March 2018, a viral video showed and sharing data with their subsidiar- over to tech giants like Google and dozens of local news anchors reading ies. This trend started in 2015, when Facebook. Google has attempted and a politically-charged script warning NBC announced its Audience Tar- ultimately failed to break into the ISP against fake news and biased me- geting Platform using among other business with experiments such as dia. All of the stations are owned by data sources, set-top box data from Google Fiber. Sinclair, the largest owner of local TV parent-company Comcast. OpenAP, stations in the US. Sinclair has strong a consortium of TV publishers head- Watchlist connections to the Trump administra- ed by Turner and Viacom, offers tion and regularly pushes “must-run” ad-targeting products that integrate The FCC; Comcast NBC Universal; political segments to its network of set-top box data from ComScore and Amazon; Axel Springer; Viacom; stations. This instance was widely crit- consumer data from Nielsen. Last Baidu; Bertelsmann; Time Warner; icized by journalists and publishers. year, congress and President Trump News Corp; Discovery; Disney; Soft- From a workforce perspective, repealed US broadband privacy rules Bank Capital; AT&T; Vox; Vice; Netflix; writers and content creators have a which gives more freedom to ISPs Hearst Ventures; Facebook; Twitter; low switching costs when it comes to monetize data. Additionally, many Alphabet; Yomiuri Shimbun Hold- to publishing their work on one or ISPs have an opt-out privacy policy ings; Tronc; Sinclair Broadcast Group; more outlets. According to UpWork, which means that customers data is CBS Television; Nextar Broadcasting a freelance marketplace and research collected by default unless they indi- Group; Raycom Media; E.W. Scripps; group, the majority of the workforce cate otherwise. Univision; Cox Media Group; Mere- dith Corp; Hubert Burda Media; Asahi will be freelancers by 2027. Reporting Consumers will not protest at first, Shimbun Company; Microsoft; Grupo from the Columbia Journalism Review seeing lower bills and more perks Globo; News Corp; Univision; news and other sources show that free- (such as zero-rating Netflix on mobile organizations everywhere. lancing journalism comes at a cost. streaming devices). These media con- Freelance journalists are earning less, glomerates will continue a strategy of are more vulnerable to cyber attacks, vertical integration and will own every and do not have bargaining power for piece of the media supply chain. benefits such as health insurance and This vertical integration strategy has setting rates. helped media corporations manage

SCENARIO

Optimistic Framing Large media companies will find new from ML algos that scan the entire media consolidation increases, more revenue models that satisfy their library of digital content that might companies can follow the example of customers and advertisers alike. In- be enjoyable to the viewer. This idea Comcast which has its own ad ex- ternational regulation around digital is similar to Spotify’s Discover Weekly change platform. Media companies privacy is standardizing (thanks in but for TV or news articles. With this have already formed ad consortium part to European laws like GDPR), and model, local news can be supported networks that pool inventory from here in the US, the FCC and FTC are by a network of niche content cre- the group to sell to advertisers. This deregulating under President Trump’s ators and freelancers as opposed to will only increase in order to remain pro-big business administration. fully staffed stations and newsrooms. competitive against tech giants like Google and Facebook. Eventually, ad- Customers will enjoy hyper-per- While cord-cutting trend continues, vertisers like CPG and Unilever form sonalization as improved audience large media companies develop joint-ventures with the largest media targeting and analytics inform better new products as they become ful- properties to co-create content with content-recommendations, localized ly “vertically integrated” across the product placement, native ads, and news coverage and context, real-time media pipeline (from content creator sponsored segments. fact-checking, personal data analyt- to last-mile broadband provider) ics, and better integrations across IoT through acquisitions and continued Netflix and other VOD services like connected devices. Large companies consolidation. The subscription model Youtube loose leverage and negoti- have the capital to invest in state- evolves to include more advanced ating power in a post-net neutrality of-the-art privacy solutions, which options. Bundled internet packages world. Google abandons GoogleFiber will create a perception that smaller allow users the flexibility to choose completely and new data manage- media organizations are less secure the product that is best for them ment laws/ compliance regulations and less trustworthy and give custom- while improving market segmenta- increase the barriers to entry for ers more confidence to share personal tion for advertisers. For example, new competitors in the ISP/ Telecom data across devices. Conceivably, a users can pay more for ad-light ISP space. customer could get a basic pack- bundles. Users will not be able to opt age with 100 standard channels + 1 for a bare-bones package with basic channel full of “discoverable” content texting and GPS. that the user might like based on their viewing habits and preference data. Advertisers enjoy the increased trans- This “discoverable” content will come parency that comes with more data and advanced targeting products. As

SCENARIO cont.

Pragmatic Pessimistic

Large media companies will need to giving customers delightful, person- Competition will be particularly fierce Large media corporations should innovate their current product offer- alized experiences while also being with tech giants such as Facebook, anticipate volatile swings in regulation ings. They will need to adapt existing responsible custodians of data and Google, Amazon, and Netflix. Joint and the economy. revenue models to allow for more cus- privacy. Tech and media corporations ventures such as Hulu, NBC + Snap- Trump will lose reelection and the tomization and flexibility otherwise form an interdisciplinary consortium chat will become more commonplace next administration, united with sup- they will lose market share (in terms with privacy advocates to set stan- but it will be challenging to measure port of a majority Democrat congress, of audiences and ad dollars) to new dards and update policies governing the impact/ benefit of these projects. seeks to undo much of the deregula- media players. data management and security. Ap- Joint ventures will push innovation tion of FCC/FTC under Ajit Pai, prom- plications with blockchain technology and large media companies will need Traditional advertising units (pre-roll, ising to be tough on data breaches and improved data tracking systems to increase their appetite for risk-tak- banner ads,:30 spots) have a smaller and increase consumer protections. will bring more transparency to the ing. Tech giants, afraid of losing impact with consumers and there- This creates uncertainty, instability ad ecosystem. Customers’ purchasing market share and profit margins, enter fore command lower prices. Native and cost as telcos and tech compa- behavior will change in the US and into the ISP/ telecom/ infrastructure advertising and product placement nies scramble to stay in compliance western Europe as more people turn market. are workable alternatives but these with changing regulations. Some of to subscription-based services like forms of advertising are difficult these regulations include troubling Amazon (prime, pantry, healthcare). Finally, further consolidation will have to scale. Large media corporations controls on “appropriate” content and People spend less time shopping and a negative impact on news in local have the advantage of cross-plat- speech. browsing through physical retailers. markets. Public perception as “news form, cross-portfolio ad campaigns as a public good” results in friction Retailers move to a “click-and-mor- GDPR makes its first landmark case but Google and Facebook still have and even the animosity of large media tar” distribution model or abandon against Facebook for cybersecuri- better access to customer data and companies. To improve public per- storefronts all together as e-com- ty vulnerabilities and successfully advanced ad targeting. Large media ception, large media corporations and merce improves in speed, security, collects a fine of $4B USD (15% of corporations will see rising audiences tech companies include “fake news” recommendation algorithms, and revenue). Chris Cox becomes the new overall (driven by growth on digital solutions and public media projects as supply chain logistics. CPG leaders CEO of Facebook after Zuckerberg’s platforms) but with shrinking profit part of their corporate social respon- like Unilever and P&G rethink their early retirement. Cox promises com- margins across the board. sibility. The media market in the US marketing approach, abandoning fes- plete cooperation with government and Europe is highly saturated leading Customers are getting more tech-sav- tivals like Cannes Lions and acquiring officials. some major media players to look to vy and begin to demand opt-in direct-to-consumer startups. Unilever markets like India and Latin America data-sharing policies. Large media and P&G form exclusive relationships Simultaneously, advances in technol- for new ventures. These efforts are companies and tech giants both with Amazon, circumventing media ogy dramatically lower the barriers costly and ultimately unsuccessful. struggle to strike a balance between outlets altogether. to entry for new players in the media industry. China tech giants like Baidu,

SCENARIO cont.

Catastrophic

Tencent, Huawei enter the US market. Given what we know about surveil- South Korea. (In South Korea, internet Subscription-based models like Am- lance capitalism, xenophobia, and addiction mostly from online gaming, azon Prime and Netflix become the state-run media, governments, even gambling, and social media has led to norm. While they are convenient, they liberal Western democracies will play significant mental health issues) US typically exclude or under-serve lower a larger role in regulating media and government considers information income levels or people with unstable free speech. regulation and digital censorship. The income. Media companies that also FCC and the Department of Health Larger audiences and shrinking own ISPs focus service in high-income introduce Surgeon General warnings margins force major media and tech neighborhoods increasing the digi- for “fake news” and issue guidelines companies to adopt increasingly tal divide. In addition to inconsistent for appropriate information consump- invasive data-surveillance strategies in coverage across the US, states begin tion. The most famous guideline is order to provide cutting-edge person- to regulate the internet industry in a the FCC Information Consumption alization and hyper-targeted adver- variety of ways. State-level net neu- Triangle similar to the Food Pyramid, tising. Media companies continue to trality provisions, hate-speech laws, that gives guidance on daily dose of consolidate in order to stay compet- revenge porn punishments give rise to appropriate information sources. The itive with tech giants. Surveillance splinternets. Splinternets further the layers of the triangle from bottom capitalism, left unchecked, will lead spread of regional truths, fake news, to top are “real world experiences”, to a world where corporations own and alternative facts. “news, school work and factual in- detailed profiles on 90% of individuals formation”, “film and entertainment”, in the US and 70% of Europeans. The Independent local media outlets and “social media”. In an effort to curb government, in the name of national newsrooms struggle to find talent and cyber-bullying, Facebook and Google security, begins to purchase this data stay financially soluble. cooperate with the government to in mass quantities. While consum- censor inflammatory language. This er advocacy groups, the ACLU, and rapidly escalates to modern day book privacy advocates protest this trend, burnings, where websites are pulled companies argue that the data has offline mysteriously for violating been “anonymized” though reporters “appropriate language” guidelines. In cannot verify this claim. higher education, Marketing and Jour- Social media and digital addiction nalism departments become inter- increase cause a serious mental disciplinary approaches to the same health crisis in the US; similar to problem: attention capture.

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Key Insight India (28%), Indonesia (58%), Germa- media sites such as the New York ny (29%), and Canada (25%). Times and the BBC. Publishers are As ad block technology continues blocking ad blockers with two main to improve, publishers have rallied In 2017 and 2018, advertisers pushed strategies: indirectly by improving together through trade groups to back against giants like Google and quality of ads and user experience, collectively address this existential Facebook for their “dirty digital” and more directly by detecting block- threat to their business model. Better products. Advertisers like Unilever ers, disabling ad blocker scripts and ad practices and improved mobile and P&G called out Facebook for ad obfuscating ads. experiences (like AMP pages) seem fraud (clickbots) and Google was to be working. According to a recent under pressure to improve brand Publishers (Google, FB, Alexa top study from the Association of Online safety measures on platforms like 100K sites) have adopted better ad The rates of ad blocking have pla- Publishers, rates of ad blocking have YouTube where ads were run against practices such as IAB/ LEAN guide- teaued but the loss of revenue to plateaued but the loss of revenue to ISIS videos or on channels promoting lines and Coalition for Better Ads. publishers is still a significant concern. publishers is still a significant concern. Nazis, pedophilia, and white suprema- Both outline compliant formats re- cy. In light of scandals like Cambridge stricting ad dimensions, CPU (central Examples Analytica and regulation like GDPR, processing usage), and features (sur- consumers are growing increasing- prise: autoplay and pop ups are not Ad blocking is mostly a desktop phe- ly sensitive about how their data is on the list!). Trade groups like the IAB nomenon however rates of mobile ad used and publishers have to be more Ad Blocking Working Group and the blocking have seen modest increases. thoughtful about how they track and Acceptable Ads Committee provide Ad blocking is much higher outside store user data. Tech-savvy customers resources, best practices and research the US, particularly in Europe and have every reason to be suspicious of for publishers to deter ad blocking on Asia. 18% of US uses some form of ad spammy ads. Security firm Confiant their sites or get their sites whitelisted blocking software, the vast majority found that fake ads containing mal- by ad blockers. Upon detecting ad on desktop devices. Ad block pene- ware and ransomware were on major blockers, many sites will ask users to tration is higher in other countries like

whitelist their site. In the most ex- sophisticated approaches to detect of invasive and predatory advertising Ad Blockers treme case, Salon.com gave visitors ads. One of the more sophisticated tactics, they may turn to projects like the option to whitelist their site or approaches, as described by a group Pi-Hole for transparency and privacy. cont. allow Salon to mine cryptocurrency of researchers at Princeton University, Leaked documents show Facebook using the users spare CPU. is perceptual ad blocking. Perceptual targeting teens with low self-esteem ad blocking relies on the regulatory for beauty and skin care products and In the past two years, Facebook has disclosures/ disclaimers that are re- new Roomba models can map out introduced features that allow us- quired by the Federal Trade Commis- homes and floor plans. ers to give feedback on ads, report sion (FTC) endorsement guidelines. abusers and bad actors and increase Publishers are exploring alternatives This includes using OCR to detect transparency around sensitive issues to ad-based revenue streams and words like “Ad” or “Sponsored post”. such as political ads. other ways to monetize content, but Publishers are fighting back with ad success has been slow. Google intro- Projects like Accelerating Mobile reinsertion software like PageFair and duced Google Contributor in 2014 as Pages (AMP), have vastly improved Sourcepoint. a way for readers to pay microfees to the performance of pages and adver- publishers based on how often they tisements on mobile. Since its intro- What’s Next visit. duction in 2015, 31 million sites have adopted AMP including publishers Historically, security and privacy con- like Twitter, WordPress and LinkedIn. cerns have been the top motive for Watchlist ad blocking. Digital ads can spread Post-GDPR, Google has announced Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB); viruses and malware and they can it will stop mining gmail for user data retargeting companies (Criteo; also store cookies to track and moni- and non-personal data ad targeting AdRoll); marketing automation soft- tor activity across multiple webpages. products. ware (Marketo, Eloqua, Hubspot, Ora- Too many ads can also lead to slower Traditionally, ad blockers work by us- cle, IBM Unica), creative optimization load times, cluttered sites and higher ing manually curated filter lists. These companies (AdExtent; CPXi); agency data usage. lists contain sets of rules that auto- trading desks (Cadreon, Xaxis); ex- matically remove unwanted content Most ad blocking software works at changes (OpenX, doubleclick); media such as advertisements, trackers and the browser level, with plugins such planning; ad networks (Alphabet, Am- malware while the page is loading. as ad blocker or special browsers azon, Facebook); targeted networks; These lists are open-sourced and such as Brave, Firefox, and Chrome mobile-specific networks. maintained by a decentralized army Canary. Pi-hole is a network-based ad of volunteers. blocker that launched in 2014 and has amassed a cult following of devoted Since 2016, Facebook has actively users and developers. Pi-hole blocks fought against ad blockers by obfus- ads everywhere on the network: cating its ad units as regular con- browsers, apps, IoT devices. As every- tent, this has led to a mini arms race day consumers become more aware with ad blockers developing more

SCENARIO

Near-Future Scenarios Optimistic Pragmatic with this audience. Millennials do respond well to influencer market- Ad blockers will be a manageable Ad blocking will be one of several For Ad Blocking ing and peer to peer advertising. threat for ad-supported media com- concerns that motivate radical chang- Advertisers should take advantage panies in the US. As media formats es in the industry. Standardized met- of these trends as social media, user such as voice and video grow in rics in advertising has long been a de- generated content, and mobile device popularity, publishers can make it bate but the next five years will finally usage allow for more sophisticated ad harder to skip over or block out those see some results. Clicks, likes, views, products. ad units. impressions will all be compared with a standard unit that is accepted Catastrophic Ad blockers work best when detect- across platforms. Campaigns will be ing ad images and text from desktop evaluated by third parties such as IAB, Given what we know about national devices. In the next five years, we will Nielsen, comScore or another start- security concerns and viral content, likely see a consolidation in the digital up analytics company. Brand safety the digital ad industry is a few scan- ad landscape, mainly with SSP, DSP, environments will mean that certain dals away from completely imploding. yield optimizations, and ad exchang- pages are downgraded or blacklisted Cambridge Analytica and Russian es. Large media companies will own altogether from the mainstream ad bots were just the tip of the iceberg in and operate the entire pipeline, ensur- marketplace because of objectionable terms of manipulation of public per- ing better brand safety environments content or unsecure site manage- ception and the info-wars of the 21st and targeting despite lower volume ment. When ad campaigns fail to run century. As more scandals come to and inventory. on TV or print, the publisher runs a light, all confidence in the industry will “make good” campaign at no cost to erode. “Surveillance capitalism” will Ad blocking browsers like Brave will ensure the advertisers’ ad units are lose favor and a new wave of regula- still be considered fringe. Mainstream shown. This is not common practice tion will limit audience targeting and audiences will be willing to share data in the digital world but soon it will be digital marketing practices that are and watch ads in exchange for their as digital giants have to work hard to commonplace today. favorite services to stay free such keep their business. as Instagram, Spotify, and Youtube. Companies realize it is not just their Industry leaders like IAB and Google Despite all the industry changes, customer’s security at stake, but their are improving ad standards across the there are changes in the audience businesses as well. Malware and ran- industry which means that custom- behavior as well. Millennials are less somware delivered through fake ads ers will be less inclined to install ad brand loyal and desensitized to ads. will become more and more costly, blockers. It will be more and more difficult to more public, and more difficult to prove the effectiveness of campaigns manage.

089 Splinternets

090 Leaking

091 The First Amendment in a Digital Age HIGH DEGREE OF CERTAINTY TREND 089 • THIRD YEAR ON THE LIST INFORMS ACT Splinternets STRATEGY NOW KEEP REVISIT

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Key Insight regulations that is recognized by ev- But it could also cause tremendous eryone using the internet. In the past headaches for news organizations Twenty years ago, the internet decade, countries in Europe fought who distribute—and monetize—con- emerged as a global space where ISPs and search providers such as tent for a global audience. information wanted to be free. Now, Google and Yahoo in court and suc- everyone has a different idea of how cessfully banned content on a country Watchlist our global information superhighway by country basis. Citizens in coun- ought to be regulated, and by whom. European Union; Google; Facebook; tries where free speech isn’t valued As a result, we are headed towards a Baidu; Twitter; Amazon; Microsoft; could find their version of the internet fragmented “splinternet” in the very Netflix; Apple; Federal Communica- without a digital outlet for watchdog near future. tions Commission. We are headed towards a fragmented journalism. “splinternet” in the very near future. Examples What’s Next When the GDPR launched in May The companies involved have main- 2018, hundreds of legitimate news tained that they’re “just technology sites were blocked worldwide. We can companies,” however their strictly-de- already see that the internet looks fined roles as arbiters of information and behaves differently depending on will be tested in courts in the coming geography. years. Search is controlled by a small num- Without coordinated effort, splin- ber of American companies—there is ternets will continue to proliferate no United Nations or other interna- in the years ahead. This could make tional organization with any power disseminating quality journalism more to establish standards, norms and difficult in regions around the world.

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Key Insight Examples What’s Next Not to be outdone by 2017, 2018 saw In June 2018 alone, the New York Have we reached peak leak? Who a numerous number of major leaks Times received and published a leaked bears the obligation of ensuring the from both the political and social confidential memo the President’s credibility of government institutions world. With leaks making headlines attorneys had sent to the special remains intact? In a world where on a consistent basis, it is important counsel; Tesla sued a former employ- “Fake news” has become an everyday to remember that without leaks from ee for allegedly hacking their systems term, do media outlets risk losing government agencies to the media, and leaking false information; and the their own credibility by continuous- the government would effectively FBI’s Office of the Inspector Gener- ly publishing anonymously sourced control what information the public al released its report on the Hillary leaked information? The next couple A man wearing a Guy Fawkes mask is aware of. The questions moving Clinton e-mail investigation where it of years through 2020 will represent flashes a V sign while protesting the forward should be framed in terms of outlined a string of leaked informa- a crucial moment for journalism and arrest and detention of Chelsea Man- what kind of information is permissi- tion. The Panama Papers were still leaks specifically. One obvious scenar- ning. ble to leak, are leaks happening solely making news with an additional 1.2 io is that we continue down the path for political and or nefarious reasons, million documents released which dis- we’re currently on, with some major and while technology can rapidly cussed the post-leak fallout amongst outlets publishing ‘leaked’ informa- disseminate leaked information, what the Panamanian law firm involved and tion and accepting partisan flak from more can be done to protect privi- its clients. While these leaks general- groups and individuals who disagree leged information from being leaked. ly lacked the massive scope that we with the outlet’s perceived alignment. had seen in the Edward Snowden and Another involves the government Chlesea Manning leaks, the partisan choosing to tighten the reigns on nature of many of the 2018 leaks leaked information in which we could represents a major challenge to media see a deepening rift between career and journalism moving forward. government officials and a bureaucra-

cy that is either trying to protect itself Leaking or the institution’s credibility. In pre- vious years the major trends in leaks cont. were geared towards protecting the leaker’s anonymity while still getting the necessary information to publish the story. The major shift we see today is the media needing to ensure their credibility is not eroded by over publishing or incorrectly publishing leaked information.

Watchlist News organizations worldwide.

Have we reached peak leak?

© 2018-2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 132 HIGH DEGREE OF CERTAINTY TREND 091 • THIRD YEAR ON THE LIST INFORMS ACT The First Amendment in a STRATEGY NOW KEEP REVISIT Digital Age VIGILANT IMPACT IMMEDIATE LONGER-TERM IMPACT LONGER-TERM LATER WATCH

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Key Insight larger first amendment issues as they protected under the first amendment, relate to media involve questions of while AI-created speech would not While the first amendment pre-dates what (if any) rights are afforded to AI, be afforded protections. This at- the Cotton Gin (the most novel and what liability (if any) can be im- tempt to compromise makes sense at technological advance of its time!), posed on the creators of technology, some level but could fall short when today as much as ever, it plays an algorithms and code. it comes to being able to fully give instrumental role in terms of design, credit (or blame) to content created development, and the legal protec- What’s Next by a human vs AI technology. tions afforded to creators and users of technology. Moving forward, there are numer- Yet another scenario would be de- ous scenarios for how governments ciding that all AI-produced content is In the near future, we are certain to choose to protect speech created by considered free speech. Supporters face thorny legal questions about free Examples AI or automated devices. The most of this view contend that the first speech and AI. It is important to make clear that the restrictive scenario would involve gov- amendment does not limit speech to first amendment relates to govern- ernments deciding that first amend- that created by humans hence any ment suppression of speech but not ment protections do not extend content produced by a voice interface private entities. If Facebook or Twitter beyond human produced speech. This or bot should be protected. While on decided to block all politically related scenario is unlikely due to the fact one hand this opens the possibility to posts because it could not sufficiently that some human programming does all content being considered speech, weed out “fake” posts, they would go into bot creation, and would mean if AI-created content is protected as be making a business decision to that a string of different technological speech, the legal entities producing do so but not one that would raise advances (such as voice) could be such content could be held liable if first amendment issues. So, while we afforded fewer protections. appropriate. expect to see platforms tighten the rules on what they deem permissible, A second scenario involves deciding None of these three scenarios pres- they are fully entitled to do so. The that the human programmer would be ents a perfect solution. We are likely

to see some hybrids of these come The First Amendment about as legal questions arise. Look for media and journalism to be at the in a Digital Age cont. epicenter of numerous legal questions moving forward.

Watchlist European Union; Federal Communica- tions Commission; Google; Facebook; Microsoft; Apple; Amazon; Snap; Instagram; YouTube; Twitch; broad- casters; newspapers; radio stations; digital media organizations; Jack Balkin, Knight Professor of Constitu- tional Law and the First Amendment at Yale Law School; Margot Kaminski, Assistant Professor, Moritz College of Law, The Ohio State University.

092 Compliance 097 Strange Computer 101 Anonymity Challenges and Glitches Will Keep Unrealistic Budgets Happening 102 Trolls

093 Differential Privacy 098 Proliferation of 103 Authenticity Darknets, Aided By 104 Data Retention 094 Ransomware As Cryptocurrencies A Service 105 Ownership 099 New Open Source 095 Hacktivism On App Vulnerabilities 106 Encryption The Rise Management 100 The Right To 096 Targeted Attacks on Eavesdrop/ Be 107 Constant Audio Digital Assistants Eavesdropped On Surveillance

108 Leaky Data

HIGH DEGREE OF CERTAINTY TRENDS 092 - 108 • SEVENTH YEAR ON THE LIST INFORMS ACT Security, Privacy and Data STRATEGY NOW KEEP REVISIT

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LOW DEGREE OF CERTAINTY

Key Insight policies, negligence or simple human The tech industry is error. For example, company informa- It is difficult to overstate the im- tion on an insecure web server can portance of security and privacy in having an existential result in a data breach. Hacks are the today’s ever-connected digital world. result of bad actors successfully ex- crisis about the Tech giants, government regulators, ploiting a vulnerability in a system or and everyday citizens are weighing internet. Continue stealing private information such as in on a variety of issues ranging from logins to break into a system. In 2017, with its current personalization to privacy, informa- ransomware was one of the most tion security to censorship, transpar- costly and widespread hacks, total- business model, or ency to national security. Larger me- ing over $2B in ransom payments for Hacktivists have launched DDoS dia organizations have the resources begin to develop attacks like WannaCry and NotPeya. attacks against governments, corpo- to tackle security and privacy issues newer models that rations and banks. head on, while smaller newsrooms Companies have a responsibility to will have a bigger challenge protect- disclose breaches and hacks alike. If give users greater ing themselves and their customers they fail to tell customers, companies control over their against security threats. can face fines of 4% of total revenue or $20 M. Yahoo and Uber have both It is important to note that data own data. been heavily criticized for failing to breaches and data hacks are not the fully disclose the extent of their secu- same thing. Data breaches are often rity scandals. the result of bad data management

Security, Privacy 092 a decade. Only recently, has it been and NotPetya. In England, WannaCry Compliance Challenges implemented by companies like Ap- shut down the computers in 80 med- and Unrealistic Budgets ple and Google as a way to analyze ical centers, which resulted in hospi- and Data cont. aggregate data without compromis- tals diverting ambulances and 20,000 The historical tension between securi- ing user privacy. Differential privacy is cancelled appointments. Hackers ty and privacy will unleash new chal- achieved by strategically introducing deploy malicious tools to hijack data, lenges in the near future. Consumers random noise into the dataset. It is effectively locking out systems and are shedding more data each day, and most useful when answering simple devices, until a fee is paid. Since cash as more connected devices enter the (low-sensitivity) queries. It’s good for and online bank transfers are easy marketplace, the volume of available finding out traffic patterns in Google to track, the currency of choice is data will balloon. Yet those organiza- Maps, the most popular emoji for now bitcoin, which moves through an tions creating devices and managing iPhone users, and ride sharing trends encrypted system and can’t be traced. consumer data aren’t planning future across Uber’s global network while The emergence of the blockchain and scenarios. Off-the-shelf compliance keeping individual user behavior cryptocurrencies have transformed checklists won’t cut it going forward. anonymous. The US Census Bureau ransomware into a lucrative business. Managers will need to develop and will be using differential privacy in the Simply backing up your data probably to continually update their security 2020 Population Census. won’t be enough of a failsafe going policies—and they’ll need to make the Differential privacy is limited in what forward. Researchers have already details transparent. Most organiza- it can do, even for the handful of tech found “doxware” floating around the tions aren’t devoting enough budget giants that have enough information internet—rather than simply holding to securing their data and devices. to do it right. Apple has differentiated your data hostage until you pay up, Organizations that haven’t carved itself from its competitors by integrat- they threaten to publish it all to the out enough budget for IoT security ing differential privacy into its Safari web, for everyone to see. will find themselves dealing with vast browser and Google uses its own recalls, remediation and lawsuits. The differential privacy tool called RAP- 095 General Data Protection Regulation POR. It is important to remember this Hacktivism On The Rise (GDPR) promises a significant head- method is still evolving. Depending on ache for compliance officers and risk Hackers-turned-activists have had a applications and data sets, differential managers, who must ensure that the busy few years, working for causes privacy is harder to maintain when policies and procedures for govern- they believe in. They launched DDoS variables are correlated. ments, companies, nonprofits and attacks against governments, cor- news organizations are current. porations and banks. They infiltrated 094 the campaigns of both Hillary Clin- 093 Ransomware As A ton and Donald Trump. Hacktivist Differential Privacy Service organizations, including Anonymous, WikiLeaks and DC Leaks, see them- We have recently seen the spread of Differential privacy as a mathematical selves as durable forces of change. ransomware like WannaCry, Petya concept has been around for over

Glamourized by the TV show Mr. kitchen to a friend of theirs in anoth- often for illegal activities. People go Security, Privacy Robot, hacktivism is on the rise, er state, it was because of a glitch in there to sell and buy drugs, guns, and given heated political tensions its system. Intel, the second largest ammunition, security exploits (mal- and Data cont. during a year in which many elections chipmaker in the world after Sam- ware, ransomware) and your hacked are being held, we’ll likely see more sung, received a lot of criticism after a data (passwords, credit card numbers operations being carried out. Hacktiv- 22-year-old Google engineer discov- and more). Cryptocurrencies have ists will use their skills to help shape ered a massive security flaw in the fueled activity in the dark corners of local, state, national and international chip design. The flaw was based on a the internet, since they’re encrypted politics, conversations and business “speculative execution” function and and make tracking transactions nearly practices. was soon patched. Recently, Barclays, impossible. You can’t just hop on to JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America a darknet the way you Google your 096 and HSBC all experienced technical high school sweetheart. To access the Targeted Attacks on Digi- glitches that prevented customers hidden crime bazaars, you need spe- tal Assistants from accessing account information, cial software such as Tor or Freenet, and in some cases, wouldn’t allow you need to know where you’re head- Now that digital assistants (DAs)— them to made deposits or withdraw ed, and you do need a bit of technical Alexa, Siri, Cortana, Google—have money. Spaceflight startup Rocket knowledge. It isn’t illegal to take a moved from the fringe to the main- Lab failed to launch during a 10-day walk through dark marketplaces. But stream, we can expect to see target- window due to unforeseen technical there’s plenty of good activity that ed attacks. Whether they target the glitches. Glitches often have to do takes place: whistleblowers hoping to assistants or their hardware (Ama- with degraded network connectivity shine a light on wrongdoing, political zon Echo, Apple HomePod, Google or a miscalculation of the bandwidth dissidents looking for asylum, and Home), it’s clear that the next frontier needed. But a lot of times, glitches investigative journalists hunting down in hacking are DAs, and this should result from newer technologies, which leads. As cryptocurrencies gain popu- be especially concerning to media we are learning break in unexpected larity and as the ecosystem blossoms companies. ways. to include more than just Bitcoin, we’re likely to see more activity in 097 098 darknets. Activists with legitimate Strange Computer Proliferation of concerns will advocate for new layers Glitches Will Keep Darknets, Aided By of protection, while law enforcement Happening will receive training on how to navi- Cryptocurrencies gate the dark web. For government Glitches are problems that don’t have Many people confuse the deep and law enforcement, the challenge an immediate, obvious cause but web—hidden parts of the Internet of training is that it is static. Those nonetheless can cause frustrating that aren’t usually indexed by search accessing darknets are typically also problems. When Alexa accidentally engines—with darknets, which are the ones building them. sent a recording a couple had in their niche spaces promising anonymity

Security, Privacy 099 and make sense of how their data easier to leak sensitive information, New Open Source App is exchanging hands. A debate over troll social media users, and leave Vulnerabilities consumer rights will heat in the near disparaging or libelous comments all and Data cont. future: should consumers be given the over the internet. In 2015, we forecast In 2017, a data scientist revealed right to eavesdrop on what their own that most anonymous sharing apps a new kind of malware capable of devices are saying, and who else is won’t survive—indeed, Secret shut infecting OpenAI Gym, an open- listening in? down, while Yik Yak came under fire source toolkit for machine learning for allowing cyber-bullying and for algorithms. It’s just one example of a failing to prove that users real iden- booming market for malicious tools Should consumers tities really are being protected. Our that exploit vulnerabilities in open be given the right desire to post content anonymously source applications and software. won’t abate, even as our desire for As the AI ecosystem grows to in- to eavesdrop on verification grows. corporate more open source code what their own and community-built tools, it will be 102 especially important to spot problems devices are saying, Trolls in advance. Many organizations use open source tools, and in the coming and who else is Trolling is a specific type of cyber-bul- years they will need to perform daily– listening in? lying that often involves spamming, not occasional–security checks. hate-speech, doxxing attacks, and other forms of harassment. Con- 100 101 trolling trolls online has forced many The Right To Eavesdrop/ media outlets to take a position on Anonymity the line between freedom of speech Be Eavesdropped On Anonymity is one of the digital and censorship. In the past year, Twit- As we connect more and more devic- trends we’ve been tracking as it has ter, Facebook, and Instagram have all es to the Internet of Things—fitness evolved during the past decade. The updated their community standards trackers, mobile phones, cars, coffee world needs anonymity, as it enables to limit hate-speech. Facebook’s AI makers—those devices are having whistleblowers to come forward, and algorithm DeepText was first intro- extended interactions with each other it shields those who otherwise might duced in 2016. It has since been rolled and the companies who make them. be persecuted for their beliefs. Digital out on Instagram and Messenger to Our devices aren’t just talking to each anonymity allows us to band together detect and reduce offensive language. other anymore. They’re talking to in times of need, whether that’s to This year, Twitter acquired Smyte, one another, learning about us, and raise money for a good cause or to a software startup that focuses on starting to talk about us. Increasing- push back against injustices. However, spam, abuse, and fraud. Reddit has ly, consumers are being left out of just as the Future Today Institute fore- banned groups like r/incels for violat- the conversation, unable to listen in cast earlier, anonymity also means it’s ing the site’s community standards.

And yet, neo-Nazi site Daily Stormer clickbait sites in Macedonia to a new is collected and monetized by large Security, Privacy resurfaced in February 2018 after type of fabricated media: videos. companies. You technically own the being effectively shut down by their Deepfakes are computer-generated photos you post to Facebook and and Data cont. domain host. State-sponsored troll- face-swap videos. The trend orig- the videos you upload to YouTube. ing is most often linked to Russia but inated on Reddit in late 2017 and You do not own the site analytics that according to research from Oxford amassed over 80,000 subscribers be- these tech giants make available to University, 28 countries and counting fore getting shut down. Authenticity you. In a world where every device have cyber troops of humans and startup Trupic has raised over $10M in is smart and connected, surveillance bots for the purpose of manipulat- seed funding to combat manipulated is constant and ownership is unclear. ing public opinion on social media. images or videos. Facebook, Apple, and Amazon have (For further reading, we recommend all introduced facial recognition fea- accessing Oxford’s full report “Troops, 104 tures or stand-alone products. The Trolls, and Troublemakers.”) Media Data Retention ACLU publicly criticized Amazon’s organizations, especially news sites, Rekognition software as being heavily strive to maintain an objective, unbi- The European Union law General Data marketed to national security clients. ased position in moderating online Protection Regulation (GDPR) gave conversation. Google’s Perspective every global media organization a 106 wake up call, and perhaps a much API has increased the comment Encryption Management moderation capacity of sites like needed standard for data retention Wikipedia, NYT, The Guardian, and policies. As large tech giants are We’ve seen dozens of big attacks in the Economist with machine learning updating policies to comply with the the past 24 months, and yet many of and AI. regulation, smaller media organiza- the organizations we entrust with our tions that depend on reporting and data are either not using encryption 103 analytics are feeling the pinch. You- or are using tools that are out of date. Tube announced that starting in July Hackers know this, so we should ex- Authenticity 2018, it would delete analytics reports pect more attacks in the coming year. Facebook has partnered with the after 60 days. While encrypting data makes it harder Poynter Institute’s International to hack, encryption can also make it Fact-Checking Network to combat 105 harder for staff or consumers to make fake news on its platform. However, Ownership legitimate use out of the data. In the the partnership itself has been diffi- near-future, companies will need to cult to monitor and further illustrates In the legal sense, data ownership devote serious resources into shoring Facebook’s commanding influence has typically referred to IP or copy- up their digital security, or risk losing over digital media. right data. The rise of wearable smart millions of dollars cleaning up after a devices and IoT have made people breach. Authenticity in the media has more aware about how their behavior, branched beyond fake news from health statistics, and online activity

Security, Privacy 107 108 Constant Audio Leaky Data and Data cont. Surveillance Consumers are growing weary of With new smart speaker technology “open source” websites, especially and better machine learning systems, those using their data. Open source public areas are prime spots for sur- genealogy website GEDmatch allows veillance. China has already deployed users to voluntarily share their genet- networks of speakers that eavesdrop ic profiles for free, as a way to find on conversations to extract meaning. relatives and trace their genealogies. In 2018, Walmart patented technology GEDmatch was used by law enforce- to listen in on the interactions be- ment to track down Joseph James tween store guests and employees, as DeAngelo, the suspected Golden well as ambient noise—clothing being State Killer who over a period of years moved on and off racks, items being brutally raped 45 women and killed selected from shelves, and the click- more than dozen people. He himself ing sounds we make on our mobile never sent in a biological sample, but devices. All of this noise can be used it turns out that someone connected to hunt for insights. But it also raises to him did. That case reveals that if questions about privacy. someone you know—or someone who might in some way be connected to you—submits their information to an open source website, it can be traced back to you.

Adware Black hat Bug Deep web/net and Dark web/ net Software that automatically gener- A malicious hacker; someone who A flaw or problem in a program that The deep and dark net/web are ates online ads; it can also include hacks for personal gain. can be harmless or might allow hack- actually two different things, though spyware that tracks your browsing Bot ers to exploit a system. they’re often conflated. The deep net habits. It’s because of adware that Compiler or deep web is the vast trove of data many people are turning to ad block- Bots are automated programs that that isn’t indexed by search engines. ing software. (see the earlier “Block- performs a simple task. Some— A program that translates source Spreadsheets, databases and more ing the Ad Blockers” trend.) simple chatbots, for example—are code into executable machine lan- that are stored on servers make up completely harmless. Other bots can guage. Compilers are used to surrep- Anonymous this space. The dark web/ net is be programmed to repeatedly guess titiously allow hackers into various made up of sites that are invisible A collective of hackers, best known passwords so that a hacker can break systems without changing the source unless you know how to use a special for its use of the Guy Fawkes mask into a website. code, making it easier for them to get network, such as Tor, which knows and distributed denial of service Botnet into a computer or network without how to find the dark side. Once there, (DDoS) attacks. Anonymous typically being noticed. you’ll find what you might expect: A botnet is a group of computers uses the hashtag #Ops when an- pirated software and content, job that are being controlled by a third Cookie nouncing a new campaign. Past ops ads for hackers, illegal drugs, human party, and are being used for any A small file sent from your comput- included a takedown of the Church trafficking, and worse. of Scientology and the Westboro number of nefarious purposes. For er’s web browser to a server. Cookies Baptist Church. example, malware installed on your help websites recognize you when Denial of service attack (DoS) computer can run, undetected, in the you return, and they also help third Attribution This is when a hacker sends so many background while hackers use your parties track audience. requests to a website or network that Researching and tracking back the machine as part of a large spamming Cracking the traffic temporarily overwhelms origins of an attack. network. the servers, and the site or network A basic term that describes break- goes down. Backdoor Brute force attack ing into a security system. Anyone Developers intentionally install back- This type of attack is a laborious, “cracking” a system is doing so mali- Distributed denial of service at- doors into firmware so that manufac- methodical process where a hacker ciously. tack (DDoS) turers can safely upgrade our devices uses software to automatically guess Crypto This is a DoS using a battalion of and operating systems. The challenge every password it can to gain un- machines. is that backdoors can also be used sur- authorized entry into a network or Cryptography (or “crypto”) is the art reptitiously to harness everything from computer. and science of encrypting data—as DEF CON our webcams to our personal data. well as breaking encryption. This is a big, annual conference for hackers that attracts people from

all over the world. Discussions range End-to-end encryption Hactivist Lulz from highly technical and academic When an encrypted message is Someone who hacks for social or A play on “lol” or “laughing out to those about policy. It takes place scrambled on both ends, as it is sent political reasons. loud,” black hats often use the term in Las Vegas every August. and again as it is received. Honeypot “lulz” to justify malicious work. Digital certificate LulzSec (“lulz security”) is yet an- Exploit A system or network designed to These authenticate and approve the other offshoot of Anonymous, and it The general term for leveraging a look like a high-value target, but identity of a person, organization or was credited with the massive Sony vulnerability in a piece of code, soft- was instead built to watch hackers service. Pictures hack. ware, hardware or computer network. do their work and learn from their Doxing Malware Firewall techniques. When hackers root out and publish Any software program that’s been A system of software and hardware InfoSec personally-identifying information designed to manipulate a system, that’s designed to prevent unautho- This is an abbreviation for “informa- about someone online. by stealing information, augmenting rized access to a computer or com- tion security.” Companies and profes- code or installing a rogue program. Dump puter network. sions that work within cybersecurity Rootkits, keyloggers, spyware and The term for a trove of data released Grey hat are known as InfoSec. everyday viruses are examples of by hackers. malware. Hackers are just like the rest of us. IRC Dumpster diving Some have malicious intent, others Internet relay chat protocol (IRC) has Man-in-the-middle (MitM) attacks Organizations and individuals who just want to fight the bad people, and been around forever. It’s the commu- This occurs when a hacker imperson- don’t consistently use a shredder are some...have a certain tolerance for nication system used to have conver- ates a trusted connection in order to opening themselves to dumpster div- moral flexibility. Gray hats will use the sations and share files, and it’s still steal data or information or to alter ing, which is exactly what it sounds tools and sensibilities of a black hat used by hackers. communications between two or like: hackers go through garbage in the pursuit of justice. Jailbreak more people. looking for any information that will Hacker A way of removing the restrictive Metadata help with an exploit. This term means different things to manufacturer’s code from a device so This is the data that explains what’s Encryption different people. People who tinker that you can reprogram it to function in another set of data, such as a jpeg Using special code or software to with code, to purposely manipulate as you desire. photo, or an email, or a webpage. it, are hackers. Some are good, and scramble data so that it cannot be Keys Password managers read by a third party, even if it is some are bad. In popular culture, The code that, just like a physical key, intercepted. “hacker” has taken on a distinctly These are third-party tools that negative connotation. is used to lock or unlock a system, you entrust your passwords to. Just encrypted message or software. remember one master password,

and use it to unlock a database of all and Facebook bios lately. PGP is a to access your office computer while to baby monitors, medical devices, your other passwords, which should basic method of encrypting email away from work, you’ve used a RAT. thermostats and any other connected allow you to use a completely dif- (and other data). In oder to receive But RATs can be malicious, too. Just device. It’s intended to help people ferent password for every site and and read the message, your intended imagine a hacker using a RAT to take learn how to secure their devices, but service you use. While managers recipient must use a private key to over your workstation. obviously it can also be used against are a good idea in theory, many are decode it. them. (see http://shodan.io) Ransomware cloud-based. If a hacker gains access Phishing Sniffing to your password manager, you’re in This is malware that allows a hack- big trouble. If you do use one, make We’ve all seen a phishing attack at er to break into your computer or When you were a kid, if you drove sure to use complicated password least once. They usually come in network and then take away your around your neighborhood looking at least 36 characters long with lots the form of an email from a trusted access until you pay a specified fee for open WiFi networks, you proba- of special characters, numbers and contact. Once you open the message or perform a certain action. bly used a little device or a special capital letters. or attachment, your computer, your Root computer program. Those are exam- data and the network you’re on be- ples of sniffers, which are designed Patch come vulnerable to attach. The root is the central nervous sys- to find signals and data without tem of a computer or network. It can being detected. An after-market fix to address vulner- Plaintext abilities. install new applications, create files, This is text without any formatting. In delete user accounts and the like. Spearphishing Payload the context of cybersecurity, it also Anyone with root access has ubiqui- A more targeted form of phishing to The part of a computer virus that is refers to text that isn’t encrypted. tous and unfettered access. smaller groups, typically within social responsible for the primary action, Sony Pictures storing its passwords Rootkit networks or work environments. such as destroying data or stealing and email addresses in a basic Excel Spoofing information. spreadsheet is an example of plain- Rootkits are malware designed for text. root access. Often undetected, root- In general, anytime data is changed Penetration testing kits start running when you start your to mimic a trusted source, it’s being The practice of trying to break into Pwned computer, and they stay running until spoofed. Changing the “From” sec- your own computer or network, in South Park fans will remember you turn your machine off. tion or header of an email to make it order to test the strength of your Cartman using this word. It’s geek Shodan look as though it was sent by some- security. speak for “dominate.” If you’ve been one else. Black hats spoof emails by hacked, you’ve been pwned. In Japan, a “shodan” is considered impersonating people you know, and PGP the first degree (read: lowest level) then launch phishing attacks. PGP stands for “Pretty Good Priva- RAT of mastery. In cyberspace, Shodan cy,” and you’ve probably seen a lot of RATs are Remote Access Tool. If is a search engine for connected Token PGP numbers showing up in Twitter you’ve used a remote login service devices, allowing hackers access A small physical device that allows

a trusted, authenticated user to use virus. a service. Tokens are stronger than Vulnerability passwords alone, since they require both the password and the physical A weakness in computer software device to gain access. the hackers can exploit for their own gain. Tor White hat The Onion Router, otherwise known as “Tor,” was originally developed by Not all hackers are bad. White hats the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory work on highlighting vulnerabilities to route traffic in random patterns so and bugs in order to fix them and as to confuse anyone trying to trace protect us. individual users. The Tor Project is Worm the nonprofit now in charge of main- Worms are a certain kind of invasive taining Tor, which is used by both malware that spreads like a virus. white and black hackers, as well as journalists and security experts. Zero-day exploits Verification In the hacking community, zero days (also written as “0day”) are prized Ensuring that data, and its origina- tools because they are undisclosed tors, are authentic. vulnerabilities that can be exploited. Virtual Private Networks Once the flaw is revealed, program- Virtual Private Networks, or “VPNs,” mers have zero days to do anything use encryption to create a private about it. channel for accessing the internet. Zombie VPNs are necessary when connecting Just like the White Walkers in Game to public networks—even those at of Thrones, but machines! A com- airports, hotels and coffee shops. puter, connected device or network Virus that’s been infected by malware and Malware intended to steal, delete or is now being used by the hacker, ransom your files. Mimicking the flu, probably without your knowledge. this type of malware spreads like a

Lead Author Co-Authors Art Direction and Design Amy Webb Elena Giralt Marc Palatucci Emily Caufield Amy Webb is a quantitative futurist. Elena Giralt is an emerging technolo- Marc Palatucci is a media and pub- She is a professor of strategic fore- gies and blockchain strategist with a lishing strategist. He graduated from Production Coordinator sight at New York University’s Leon- background in public journalism. She New York University’s Gallatin School Cheryl Cooney ard N. Stern School of Bausiness and graduated from Santa Clara Universi- of Individualized Study, with a degree the CEO of the Future Today Insti- ty with degrees in French and Polit- in Linguistics and Languages, and he tute. Webb was named to the Think- ical Science and holds an MBA from holds Santa Clara University with de- ers50 Radar list of the 30 manage- New York University’s Leonard N. grees in French and Political Science ment thinkers most likely to shape Stern School of Business, where her and he is a May 2019 MBA candidate the future of how organizations are research and course of study focused at New York University’s Leonard N. managed and led and won the 2017 intensively on blockchain technology. Stern School of Business. Thinkers50 RADAR Award. She is the bestselling, award-winning author of Roy Levkowitz Kristoffer Perez The Signals Are Talking: Why Today’s Roy Levkovitz is a strategist and Kristofer (Kriffy) Perez is a man- Fringe Is Tomorrow’s Mainstream, business development specialist who agement consultant with a decade a book about how to find and track focuses on the design and develop- of experience in financial services trends, and the upcoming book The ment of technology and its role in across Europe and the Americas. He Big Nine: How The Tech Titans & supplementing the human experience specializes in customer-facing inno- Their Thinking Machines Will Change rather than solely supplanting it. He vation and product strategy. Based Humanity. graduated from Emory University in New York City with over 15 patents with a degree in Political Science and filed, he is a global entrepreneur holds an MBA from New York Uni- who seeks to define how technology versity’s Leonard N. Stern School of impacts society. He graduated from Business. Lehigh University with degrees in Mechanical Engineering and Business and holds an MBA from New York University’s Leonard N. Stern School of Business.

Founded in 2006, the Future Today Institute helps leaders and their organizations prepare for complex futures. We focus exclusively on how emerging technology and science will disrupt business, transform the workforce and ignite geopolitical change. Our pioneering, data-driven forecasting methodology and tools empower leaders to make better decisions about the future, today.

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The Future Today Institute’s 2019 Journalism, Media Industry Trends Report relies on data, analysis and modeling from a number of sources, which includes: sources within public and private companies, securities filings, patents, academic research, government agencies, market research firms, conference presentations and papers and news media stories. The content herein is curated in part from the Future Today Institute’s annual Trends report, which is now in its 11th year of publication. Our reports are occasionally updated on the FTI website.

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Amy Webb’s new book: THE SIGNALS ARE TALKING: Why Today’s Fringe is Tomorrow’s Mainstream arrives at a fortuitous moment, as it gives critical guidance on how to think like a futurist in order to most accurately answer pressing questions about the future of emerging technologies, science, our economy, political systems, and civil liberties.

• Washington Post Bestseller “A rare treasure: a “[The Signals Are “A logical way to

• 2017 Thinkers50 substantive guide written Talking] provides several sift through today’s Radar Award Winner in a narrative that’s a brain-bending future onslaught of events delight to read.” possibilities...Webb’s and information to spot • Winner, 2017 Gold stellar reputation in this coming changes in your Axiom Award —Christopher Graves, Global Chair, Ogilvy red-hot field should corner of the world.” • Fast Company’s Best Public Relations generate demand.” Books of 2016 —KIRKUS —Booklist • Amazon’s Best Books of 2016

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