Peace and Security

ISSUE 44, Council Report March 2013

Current members of the Peace and Security Council: Angola, Cameroon, Congo, Côte d’Ivoire, Djibouti, Egypt, Equatorial , , Guinea, , Lesotho, Libya, , and Peace and Security Council Protocol IN THIS ISSUE

‘The PSC shall encourage non-governmental organizations to participate actively in Early warning issues for March 1 the efforts aimed at promoting peace, security and stability in Africa. When required 2013 such organizations may be invited to address the Peace and Security Council’ – Article 20 of the Protocol Relating to the Establishment of the PSC of the Country Analysis: 2 Early warning issues for March 2013 PSC Spotlight: the 2013 During March there will be national reminders of simmering tensions and election of the members of the 6 assembly and local elections in Kenya unresolved issues that remain in the PSC and as well as a constitutional wake of the North African uprisings. referendum in Zimbabwe. A political Elections due to start in mid-April in Regional Analysis: Lord’s assassination in Tunisia (see country Egypt may also bring more tension to 8 analysis) and an attempted an already volatile situation across the Resistance Army assassination in Libya are also stark country.

Open page: the East African 11 Current PSC Chair RECs Bio data: H.E. Mr. Bulus Paul Zom Lolo Current posts: Nigeria’s Ambassador to , Permanent Representative to the AU and UNECA Important dates to diarise 16 and Chair of the PSC

Tunisia The current political impasse that Lord’s Resistance Tunisia is experiencing is hindering the For many months, the Ennahda leaders completion of Tunisia’s draft Army (LRA) tried not to condemn or alienate their constitution. This situation has Given the fragile security complex that Salafist base, arguing that this would consequences for the agenda of the exists in Central Africa, the Lord’s only lead to a replication of the era of future elections as the election process Resistance Army(LRA) continues to the old regime, when political can only take place if the constitution is present a grave threat to the wellbeing opponents were oppressed, tortured fully completed. Furthermore, the lack of civilians in the Democratic Republic and imprisoned. However, the ongoing of time available works against the of Congo (DRC), the Republic of South situation across the country and current government as the many Sudan and the especially in may in the near existing socio-economic urgencies are a (CAR), as well as to the ongoing peace future lead to a rupture between the fertile ground for all kinds of political and political processes in these leaders of Ennahda and the Salafist manipulations and intrigue. countries. The possibility of the LRA fringe. forming opportunistic alliances with regional governments or other rebel groups in Darfur and the Great Lakes Livingstone formula region could also pave the way for the survival and revival of the terrorist group. ‘Civil Society Organizations may provide technical support to the African Union by undertaking early warning reporting, and situation analysis which feeds information into the decision-making process of the PSC’ – PSC/PR/(CLX), 5 December 2008, Conclusions of a Retreat of the PSC on a mechanism of interaction between the Council and CSOs.

PSC Report Programme T | +251 11 515 6320/24/67/98 F | +251 11 515 6449 www.issafrica.org 1 Institute for Security Studies, Addis Ababa [email protected] Country Analysis The current political impasse that Other opposition political parties Tunisia is experiencing is hindering the proposed different alternatives. The completion of Tunisia’s draft Popular Front (PP), a leftist coalition in TUNISIA constitution. This situation has which Belaïd was the main figure, consequences for the agenda of the proposed a National Saving Congress Previous PSC communiqués and next elections as the election process (Congrès national de sauvetage) while statements can only take place if the constitution the Tunisian Workers General Union is fully completed. Furthermore, the (UGTT) trade union attempted to th At the 257 meeting of the Peace and lack of time available works against the convince its partners of the advantages Security Council on 15 January 2011 current government as the many of a national dialogue. (PSC/PR/COMM.2 (CCLVII) the PSC had existing socio-economic urgencies are Jebali also announced his decision to condemned the excessive use of force a fertile ground for all kinds of political form a new government composed of by the Ben Ali regime and loss of life in manipulations and intrigue. Tunisia. At its 268th meeting on 23 technocrats, but failed to do so even March 2011 (PSC/PR/BR.3 (CCLXVIII), Two years after the fall of then- before the refusal of Ennahda’s the PSC welcomed the new ‘climate of President Zine El-Abidine Ben Ali, his president, Rachid Ghannouchi, to freedom and the steps taken to numerous partisans threaten adhere to the idea of a government of promote democracy, good governance tremendous difficulties and appear to technocrats. According to Jebali, future and the rule of law’ in Tunisia. However, be more than a nuisance in preventing ministers must never have held a during the past two years no a trouble-free political transition from portfolio during the old regime, must significant statements on Tunisia have taking place. However, the danger for have no political affiliation and cannot been issued by the PSC. Tunisia and Tunisians is that if a strong contest the next elections. The UGTT political unity is not put in place, those announced that it was in favour of the Crisis escalation potential nostalgic for the ancient regime, given formation of a government composed Following the assassination of the their means, resources and logistics, of technocrats. Jebali resigned from his human rights lawyer and political could derail the transitional process or post, as he failed to obtain a consensus activist Chokri Belaïd, tension across at least make it more complicated. to form such a government of the country and especially in the Key issues and internal dynamics technocrats. By attempting to reshuffle capital, Tunis, is high. The Salafists were his government, Jebali had risked a rapidly suspected of being behind this The assassination of human rights backlash due to the more orthodox murder while the Prime Minister, lawyer Belaïd on 6 February led to mass views and position of his party, Hamadi Jebali, was quick to say that protests across the country and Ennahda. A new Prime Minister needed especially in the capital city of Tunis, this killing was a political assassination to be appointed, and his new cabinet where thousands of Tunisians marched that went beyond the personality of formed, a situation threatening further in homage to the lawyer. This march Belaïd. social instability in Tunisia. As a result, resembled the one that followed the President appointed The formation of a new government dramatic suicide of Mohamed Bouzizi in Interior Minister Ali Larayedh as the new composed of technocrats, which Sidi Bouzid, which in turn led to the end Prime Minister. Larayedh, who is also should have been announced on 17 of Ben Ali’s regime. Likewise, this the chosen candidate of Ennahda, will February, failed, which may not assassination precipitated the end of now have the difficult task of not only facilitate any political settlement. Jebali’s government. forming a new government, but also of Consequently, Jebali resigned from his Following the killing of Belaïd and the finding rapid solutions to the ongoing position. As a result, the Troika mass protests that followed, Jebali crisis in Tunisia. government, composed of a majority decided to create a Panel of the Wise of Ennahda, faces considerable Following the resignation of Jebali, and (conseil des sages) in order to find a challenges with an immediate task of the growing pressure on Ennahda, solution to the socio-political crisis. resolving the current political crisis. In Ghannouchi has accepted that the Jebali gathered this Panel of the Wise the absence of an appropriate and Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of on 12 February at the palace rapid answer by the authorities, Interior and Ministry of Defense would of Dar Dhiafa. Sixteen personalities, violence could worsen further and not be held by Ennahda’s members among them an army general, an cross a perilous threshold. (ministères régaliens in French). The economist, a constitutionalist and a Tunisian Minister for Foreign Affairs, The socio-economic situation trade unionist, responded positively to Rafik Abdessalem, who is also the complicates an already volatile political the invitation. They met in order to son-in-law of the founder and condition. These explosive ingredients evaluate the general situation and president of the Ennahda party, are now a danger for the Tunisian insisted on the urgent setting of an Ghannouchi, is furthermore embroiled unemployed youth, who may find a agenda for the next elections, the in a ‘Sheratongate’ extra-marital sex perceived solution to their daily legitimacy of the national assembly and scandal. This affair, which has yet to be problems in the Salafists’ discourse. The the need to create awareness among proven, may accelerate his resignation. instability of the region, where civil society and news media actors. This terrorists are increasingly present, is of Panel of the Wise also intended to meet However, the party of the current further concern for Tunisians. with various political parties. Tunisian president, Marzouki, the » 3

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Republic Congress (CPR), has rejected affirmed that in times of crises they will opponents were oppressed, tortured the idea of a new government not hesitate to get involved in political and imprisoned. However, the ongoing composed of technocrats. Yet the matters. Therefore, in June 2012, they situation across the country and leader of the CPR, Mohamed Abbou, called for the creation of a national especially in Tunis may in the near who called for the resignation of the council for dialogue, which would future lead to a rupture between the Minister of the Interior and the Minister gather all Tunisia’s key political actors leaders of Ennahda and the Salafist of Justice, also stated that if no in order to find solutions to the fringe. improvements or changes occurred by socio-economic and security problems After Ghannouchi had left Tunisia for 19 February, his ministers would affecting the country. London, where he remained during definitely resign. The Islamist Ennahda most of the Ben Ali period only to is also against such an idea and argues As a result, there may be signs that return after his fall, a new generation that this would allow the return of Ennahda is attempting to control the of young Islamists who are relatively those who governed under the Ben Ali UGTT from within. Indeed, in recent unfamiliar with the ideals of Ennahda regime. On 16 February an estimated months, there has been a noticeable emerged. With the new 12000 Ennahda sympathisers gathered increase in the number of new communication tools available, these in the streets of Tunis to listen to members of the UGTT who appear to young Islamists are now more familiar Ghannouchi. As a result, more than be also Ennahda’s sympathisers, if not with external ideas and resistance two weeks after the death of Belaïd, no members. ideologies emanating from new government had been formed. The weak and divided political Afghanistan or Iraq than with the views In these difficult times, the UGTT trade opposition in Tunis is today unable to of Ghannouchi. Also, now that the union, which boasts nearly 520 000 advance an economic alternative to iron-fisted regime of Ben Ali is no members, appears today to be the sole the Ennahda programme and has longer in place in Tunisia, Salafists have opposition to the Tunisian serious difficulties in existing outside slowly started to promote their government. Demonstrations against the UGTT framework. Despite its ideology, not only among the the Ennahda party or the government, proactive stance, the UGTT remains population but also within the led by the UGTT, occur regularly in more of an opposition force than a Ennahda party. For instance, the latter Tunisia. Consequently, the Ennahda credible alternative government with is increasingly coming under pressure executive bureau accuses the UGTT of concrete solutions to the ongoing to inscribe a major role for Shari’a or being manipulated by the forces of the problems facing the Tunisian Islamic law in the new constitution. old Ben Ali regime with the intention population. It has no sound alternative As a result, non-Islamists have grown of preventing the current government to the neo-liberal economic increasingly anxious, and worry that from undertaking any constructive programme of Ennahda that could put the Salafists’ views are not only slowly action. In response, the UGTT leaders an end to the crisis in Tunisia. taking root across the country, taking argue that it is precisely because it is The Ennahda party is growingly caught advantage of the general disorder and the only credible political opposition between the Salafists, the hard-core the emergence of lawless areas in to the government that such fringe of its adherents, and the order to advance Islamic law, but that accusations are proffered. nostalgic supporters of the Ben Ali era Ennahda is also acting in connivance By the same token, Jebali declared who have attempted to sabotage the with the Salafists and shares their during a debate aired on a Tunisian democratic process in Tunisia since the ultimate Islamic goals. television channel that it was fall of the dictator in January 2011. Consequently, Ennahda is in an important for the UGTT to understand Following the killing of Belaïd, a fringe increasingly uncomfortable position as that the Tunisian government was of the Tunisian population now it is effectively caught between the making every effort to work towards accuses Ennahda of being indirectly Salafists, who see the political bureau the improvement of the daily life of the responsible for his assassination. as being too soft on Islamic issues, and population. It was therefore important However, while Ennahda has a pure the non-Islamists who, in turn, perceive for the UGTT to remain focused on its political position, the Salafists are Ennahda as being too lax in dealing initial mission of trade unionism and solely guided by religious fervour and with Tunisia’s security threats. The not to get involved in politics. intend to deeply ‘Islamise’ Tunisian Ennahda party has become divided In fact, it appears as though the UGTT, society. Since the fall of Ben Ali, they between religious preachers and the since its foundation in 1946, has always have conducted a large number of core beliefs of its militant base on one been the convenient scapegoat of actions attacking TV studios, premises side and pragmatic politicians with political forces, be it under Habib where alcohol is sold and police their more flexible positions on the Bourguiba, Ben Ali or the leadership of stations, as well as intimidating the other. Ennahda. The UGTT was also behind Tunisian population. In these times of heightened fear and the fall of the two transitional For many months, the Ennahda leaders incomprehension, it is very likely that governments in the immediate tried not to condemn or alienate their there will be some exaggeration and post-Ben Ali era in January and Salafist base, arguing that this would premature alarm vis-à-vis the ‘Salafist February 2011. only lead to a replication of the era of threat’. This situation can be explained The UGTT leaders have declared and the old regime, whereby political by the fact that the non-Islamists and » 4

PSC Report Programme T | +251 11 515 6320/24/67/98 F | +251 11 515 6449 www.issafrica.org 3 Institute for Security Studies, Addis Ababa [email protected] Country reports continued… non-Salafists have serious difficulties in out), ‘France, ça suffit!’ (France, it is enhance the security environment in accepting the fact that Islamists are enough!) and ‘La Tunisie ne sera plus the country. actually governing Tunisia. This fear jamais une terre de colonisation’ The AU reminded the Tunisian people finds expression in concrete ways. (Tunisia will no more be a land of and its leaders of the urgent need to colonisation). Many demonstrators It is a fact that the Salafists are overcome their differences and rise also showed anger at French increasingly becoming visible in above partisan and ideological journalists, reminding them that Tunisian society, especially in poor considerations to ensure the fulfilment during the Ben Ali era they were neighbourhoods. Like the Muslim of the high expectations of the 2011 absent and omitted to inform the Brotherhood in Egypt or the Islamic Revolution. world of what was happening in Salvation Front (FIS) in Algeria in the Tunisia. During NATO’s military intervention in early 1990s, Salafists have managed to Libya, hundreds of migrants who were The Fitch global ratings agency fill the vacuum created by living in Libya left the country and recently published an alarming report deteriorating public services in many of them ended up in a refugee pointing at serious delays in the marginalised areas, thereby becoming camp in Tunisia. The Choucha camp Tunisian transition and warns that the key economic actors, subsidising and located on the Libyan-Tunisian border current rating, already downgraded to compensating for the lack of a is, however, set to close this June, ‘BB’ in December 2012, could be governmental presence and leaving hundreds of refugees with no negatively revised if the social governmental action. It is estimated official status. The refugees in this violence in Tunisia persists, leading to that more than 400 000 Tunisians (4 camp left their respective countries, political instability, which in turn per cent of the total population) live on including Sudan, Nigeria and Chad, for could endanger the political less than one dollar per day. economic reasons. As a result, they do transition. The Fitch analysts pointed not qualify as refugees in terms of UN In order to respond to increasing out the difficulties Tunisians face in High Commission for Refugees concern among some Tunisians, the forming a new government. An (UNHCR) criteria and are not entitled to Ennahda political bureau has argued American hedgefund that had any assistance from the UNHCR. Also, that the radicalisation of religious intended to acquire 25 per cent of the once the camp is closed down, it is discourse is a temporary phenomenon, mobile phone company Tunisiana, but very likely that many of these refugees largely due to years of frustration and then withdrew its offer, is a serious will remain in Tunisia, living a repression. It also argues that by indication of the uncertainty and clandestine life and relying on integrating the Salafists into the perplexity of potential foreign low-paid temporary jobs as well as aid political system, they will in time investors. Moreover, the adoption of a from the Tunisian population. However, become more moderate. However, new investment law in Tunisia is being in a country facing tremendous many observers contend that this is a keenly awaited by foreign investors. socio-economic challenges, these double-edged strategy that risks Financial markets and stock refugees could soon become the gradually Islamising Tunisian society exchanges are also scrutinising the target and scapegoat of a fringe of from below. decision by the International desperate unemployed Tunisians. Following the killing of Belaïd, Monetary Fund (IMF) to grant a loan demonstrations against Ennahda of $2,32 billion in March 2013. United Nations However, for the same financial were met by pro-Ennahda rallies. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon markets, the settlement of the During their protest march, the slogan strongly condemned the assassination political situation in Tunisia is a ‘France dégage’, known worldwide of Belaïd. For the Secretary-General, prerequisite for optimism. since the fall of Ben Ali, was shouted there has been important progress in by protestors. Indeed, France’s Geopolitical dynamics Tunisia’s transition. Yet, much remains Ministry of Interior strongly criticised to be done in terms of the Africa and RECs Ennahda, insinuating that the Islamist constitutional process and with regard party was behind the assassination of The Chairperson of the Commission of to meeting the social and economic Belaïd, even referring to ‘fascist the African Union (AU), Dr Nkosazana demands of the Tunisian people. The Islamists’. France’s position provoked Dlamini‐Zuma, and the AU condemned Secretary-General has encouraged the the summoning of the French the assassination of Belaïd, as well as Tunisian authorities to move the Ambassador in Tunisia by the Prime the subsequent death of a police reform process forward as Tunisia’s Minister to remind the Ambassador officer in protests following the killing. democratic transition should not be that Tunisia was a sovereign state. The The AU condemned these acts as derailed by further acts of political Prime Minister also stressed that undermining the efforts towards the violence. France was a close ally and friend and peaceful completion of the ongoing International community therefore Tunis expected some transitional process in Tunisia. The support from Paris during these Chairperson expressed confidence that Catherine Ashton, the High difficult times, at least in terms of its the Tunisian authorities would spare Representative of the European Union silence. In addition, placards were no effort in bringing the perpetrators for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy carried by the demonstrators of the heinous crime to justice, while and the Vice-President of the declaring ‘France dégage’ (France, get also deploying the necessary efforts to Commission, and Štefan Füle, » 5

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Commissioner for Enlargement and ‘This is not what the Tunisian people in Tunisia and could end up in the European Neighbourhood Policy, both overthrew the Ben Ali regime for,’ the hands of hard-core Islamist Tunisian condemned in the strongest possible EMHRN has stressed. The first duty of militants who could use them against terms the assassination of Belaïd. They the public authorities is clearly to both the civilian population and expressed their sincere condolences bring those who ordered and carried governmental bodies and state both to the victim’s family and to the out this abominable act swiftly to infrastructure. other leaders and members of the book. But no less is it the Options Unified Democratic Patriots Party. They responsibility of the Tunisian also expressed the hope that the authorities to put an end to the Given the above scenarios, the Tunisian authorities would conduct a climate of intimidation and violence following options could be considered full investigation into the assassination they have allowed to evolve. For the by the PSC to consolidate democracy so that those responsible for Belaïd’s EMHRN, failure by the government to in Tunisia: murder could be brought to justice. ensure justice for Belaïd will throw any Option 1 hopes of fair and democratic elections For Ashton and Füle, the growing into doubt. In order to lessen tension and give number of acts of violence committed some satisfaction to the Tunisian by extremist groups, including the Scenarios people, the government ought to Committees to Protect the Revolution, Tunisia remains unstable and serious establish an independent committee is a threat to the transition process discrepancies prevail among the to investigate Belaïd’s assassination. now underway. ‘Everything must population, especially between the therefore be done to put an end to the Option 2 Salafists and the non-Salafists. activities of these violent groups as it is Insecurity across the country may soon As the UGTT has suggested, establish a in the interests of all the citizens of appear to be a major challenge for the national council for dialogue Tunisia that the political transition Tunisian authorities. The final drafting comprising the main political and civil process should be allowed to go of the Tunisian Constitution may also society organisations as well as trade forward, in accordance with the law prove a difficult task, which would in unions to agree on a clear and feasible and in a spirit of constructive and turn postpone the presidential roadmap for political transition. peaceful dialogue.’ elections planned for July this year. Option 3 Civil society The Salafist component of Tunisian Encourage cooperation between Following a call from the UGTT, a society is a subject that needs to be Islamist and secularist organisations. strike was conducted in Tunis on 8 dealt with rapidly, with subtlety and Ghannouchi, as president and founder February. Fearing an escalation of the wisdom. Force and coercion ought not of Ennahda, could further explain his violence, the Tunisian League for to be used, as there would conception of Islam adapted to Human Rights, known in French as the undoubtedly be a negative reaction, contemporary challenges and its Ligue Tunisienne des Droits de l’Homme which could encourage the hard-line intended role in Tunisian society. This (LTDH), asked the authorities to fringe of the Salafists to take up arms process could be facilitated by civil protect threatened political against both the government and the society associations with close ties to personalities. population. the party to spread the message. The Euro Mediterranean Human Scenario 1 Option 4 Rights Network (EMHRN) condemned Tunisia will remain unstable for many The Salafist control of, and influence in, the assassination of Belaïd. For the months. Tunisian society is divided and poor neighbourhoods could be EMHRN, this tragedy came about as a two years after the fall of Ben Ali still terminated or substantially reduced by result of a government-sanctioned seeks compromises and the creation of public service institutions engaging in climate of intimidation and violence a model society broadly acceptable to pro-active strategies towards this end. against the democratic movement in the majority of Tunisians. Tunisia. Scenario 2 According to the EMHRN, the repeated attacks, coming from The Salafists exert strong pressure government officials as well as from against the government, but also some Ennahda leaders, singling out against ordinary Tunisians across the Belaïd as the leading light of the country. This could lead to further protests, incited his murderers. The clashes and divisions throughout EMHRN goes further, arguing that the Tunisia. apprehension and conviction of the Scenario 3 killers is being compounded by a biased use of the justice system and The volatile situation in neighbouring law enforcement capacity, due to a Libya, and also across the region, could single party having seized the main spark more political unrest in Tunisia. levers of state power. Arms are circulating freely and illegally

PSC Report Programme T | +251 11 515 6320/24/67/98 F | +251 11 515 6449 www.issafrica.org 5 Institute for Security Studies, Addis Ababa [email protected] PSC Spotlight 15 members selected in the following 2013. Article 5 of the PSC Protocol manner: ten Members elected for a stipulates that the Council’s term of two years; and five Members membership is to be decided The 2013 election of the members elected for a term of three years in according to the principle of ‘equitable of the PSC order to ensure continuity. regional representation and rotation’. In terms of article 5 of the Protocol The tenure of five members of the PSC For their three-year tenure, each of the establishing the AU Peace and Security (Table 1 below) serving for a three-year five regions is represented by one Council, the PSC shall be composed of term will terminate at the end of March member.

Table 1

Region States whose term ends in 2013 Central Africa Equatorial Guinea East Africa Kenya North Africa Libya Southern Africa Zimbabwe West Africa Nigeria

Following the communication from the the end of March 2013, the list of candidatures were received directly AU Commission inviting the five candidates was received. Table 2 shows from member states rather than regions to submit their candidates for the list of candidates that competed through the regions. the five seats expected to be vacant at for the five seats. Some of the

Table 2

Region Candidates for 2013 PSC election Central Africa Equatorial Guinea East Africa , Ethiopia, Kenya and North Africa Algeria Southern Africa West Africa Nigeria

Apart from Eritrea, all the other replaced by Kenya, Libya took over Africa, Kenya, competed for the new candidates have served in the PSC at from Algeria. Nigeria has been a three-year term seat. Ethiopia least once. Equatorial Guinea served member of the PSC since 2004 and is withdrew from the election. Eritrea did once during the 2010–2013 term. emerging as a de facto permanent not succeed in garnering the required support. Accordingly, the real fight for Similarly, Mozambique and Uganda member of the PSC. served in the PSC once, but for a the seat was between Kenya and two-year term, during 2004–2006 and As the list of candidates shows, the Uganda. As Kenya was campaigning 2006–2008 respectively. Ethiopia and region lacking agreement on a unified for immediate re-election, Uganda Algeria each served two consecutive candidacy was East Africa. Four ultimately received the required support to become the new member terms of three years each during countries, including the incumbent of the PSC from East Africa. 2004–2010. While Ethiopia was holder of the three-year seat for East

Table 3 Members of the PSC elected at the 22nd ordinary session of the Executive Council for 2013–2016

Region Re-elected or newly elected members Central Africa Equatorial Guinea East Africa Uganda North Africa Algeria Southern Africa Mozambique West Africa Nigeria » 7

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Mozambique is the only country from Although the principle of regional An analysis of the PSC membership Southern Africa that has not served representation is in the technical process in practice shows that these on the PSC since 2006. Its emergence sense fully observed, the practice requirements are secondary to as the only candidate for the region shows that the extent to which regional representation and rotation. accordingly represents the members of the PSC represent the The current membership of the PSC, continuation of the region’s strict views of their respective regions as represented in Table 4, shows that adherence to the principle of rotation. varies from region to region. Actual this second category of criteria for It also manifests the level of cohesion regional representation is more PSC membership is not strictly in the region and higher tendency of evident on the part of members of the complied with. Not all of the current countries of the region to play a PSC coming from Southern Africa and members of the PSC respect representative regional role in the is also reflected to a lesser extent by constitutional governance, the rule of PSC. PSC members from West Africa. Actual law and human rights. Indeed, in March 2012 Mali, a current member of representation of their respective The result of the election shows that the PSC, experienced a military coup regions by other PSC members seems while Nigeria and Equatorial Guinea while the PSC was holding a to be generally weak, although there were re-elected, the other three states ministerial level meeting in the have been instances, particularly in were newly elected to the PSC. The capital, Bamako. Similarly, not all East Africa, where individual states continued re-election of Nigeria to current members of the PSC the PSC suggests the emergence of a were willing to play a representational contribute to the promotion of peace practice in the West Africa region of role. and security or possess the capacity reserving its three-year term seat for Apart from regional representation to assume responsibilities for regional Nigeria. Nigeria has accordingly and rotation, the PSC Protocol and the and continental peace-making, become the only AU member state to Modalities for the Election of conflict management and resolution evolve into a de facto permanent efforts. member of the PSC. Members of the PSC provide additional criteria that apply to the The members of the PSC elected for Algeria had only a three-year break election of members of the PSC. These the term of 2013–2016 will assume when it resumed its membership of include the commitment to uphold their seats on 1 April 2013. the PSC in April 2013. This reflects the principles of the AU; contribution The membership of the PSC as of 1 limited rotation of the three-year term to the promotion and maintenance of April 2013 is shown in Table 4. seat among countries of the North peace and security in Africa; provision African region. The successful return of capacity and commitment to of Uganda to the PSC to occupy the shoulder the responsibilities entailed seat formerly held by Kenya makes it in membership; respect for the third country in the East African constitutional governance, the rule of region to hold the three-year seat. law and human rights; and possession Clearly, there are variations between of sufficiently staffed and equipped the different regions in their Permanent Missions at the AU and the adherence to the principle of rotation. UN.

Table 4

Region PSC members as of April 2013

Central Africa Equatorial Guinea, Cameroon and Congo

Eastern Africa Uganda, Djibouti and Tanzania

Northern Africa Algeria and Egypt

Southern Africa Mozambique, Angola and Lesotho

Western Africa Nigeria, Côte d’Ivoire, Gambia and Guinea

Of the 54 AU member states only 47 Central African Republic, the Out of the 47 states party to the PSC are parties to the PSC Protocol. As of Democratic Republic of Congo, , Protocol, the number of states that January 2013, Cape Verde and South and ) have not have so far served in the PSC is 37. Sudan havenot signed the PSC ratified the Protocol, although they are Protocol, while five member states (the signatories.

PSC Report Programme T | +251 11 515 6320/24/67/98 F | +251 11 515 6449 www.issafrica.org 7 Institute for Security Studies, Addis Ababa [email protected] Regional security Subsequently, in September 2012, the civilians. The report, however, warned operation received 2860 troops from against any complacency in the fight analysis Uganda, the Central African Republic against the group in the light of the (CAR) and the Army reduced deaths and reported (SPLA). Uganda contributed 2000 defections, and said that the LRA was The Lord’s soldiers, South Sudan sent 500 and the still capable of carrying out mass Resistance CAR deployed 360 soldiers of the killings. Forces Armées Central Africaines (FACA) The LRA has no central command Army to the regional force. According to the structure or any established logistical AU statement, together with the 500 capability or training camps. However, Previous PSC and AU FARDC troops the current total reports show that its infamous leader, communiqués strength of the RTF has increased to Kony, still controls the widely scattered 3350 soldiers, and paves the way for In a press release dated 13 February group through radio communication the full operationalisation of 2013 the African Union (AU) and satellite phones. The group also coordinated operations against the announced that the Democratic LRA in the Dungu sector, in addition to continues to loot and kill for survival. Republic of Congo (DRC), which is a the sectors of Nzara in South Sudan Despite the good news about member of the AU-led Regional and Obo in the CAR. defections, the number of abductions Cooperation Initiative for the remains high. According to Resolve’s Elimination of the Lord’s Resistance The PSC, in its meeting of 22 May 2012, Crisis Tracker, in 2012 the LRA Army (RCI-LRA), had contributed a discussed developments regarding its committed more than 260 attacks on battalion of 500 troops to the military initiative to eliminate the LRA. In a civilians and abducted over 500 component of the initiative, the African communiqué that followed the people, including more than 100 Union-led Regional Task Force (RTF), for meeting, the Council extended the children. In one high-profile incident, the elimination of the LRA. The RTF, operations and mandate of the in September 2012 the brutal terrorist which aims to have a maximum troop RCI-LRA by an additional twelve group attacked the town of Bangassou strength of 5000, is commanded by a months. The PSC also discussed the in the CAR and abducted 49 people. In Ugandan Brigadier General, Dick Olum. logistics and financial elements of the comparison, the LRA carried out some The handover of the battalion by the operation and requested the UNSC ‘to 270 attacks against civilians in 2011. DRC, which was the last member of the consider modalities of enhanced initiative to contribute troops tothe support through the UN peacekeeping Given the fragile security complex that regional force, was commended by the missions present in the area of exists in Central Africa, the LRA AU at a ceremony that took place at operation of the RCI-LRA, including by continues to present a grave threat to Dungu in the DRC, the headquarters of adjusting as may be necessary their the wellbeing of civilians in the DRC, the RTF troops. Major General Amuli mandates’. In its meeting on 22 the Republic of South Sudan and the Bahigwa, Chief of Staff in charge of November 2011 the PSC authorised CAR, as well as to the ongoing peace operations of the DRC Armed Forces the implementation of the RCI-LRA. and political processes in these (FARDC), handed over his country’s The force was mandated by the countries. The LRA also continues to contingent to the Special Envoy of the Council to protect civilians from LRA take advantage of the escalating Chairperson of the African Union atrocities, strengthen the operational security problem in the eastern DRC, Commission (AUC), Ambassador capabilities of countries affected by which resulted in a change of priority Francisco Madeira. The ceremony was the LRA, stabilise the region and by the government and the attended by the United Nations facilitate humanitarian activities in the redeployment of DRC troops from the Secretary-General’s Special area, among other responsibilities. LRA-affected region to the M-23 Representative and Head of the UN After that meeting, the AU appointed rebel-controlled areas. This move Regional Office for Central Africa, Abou Francisco Madeira as the AU Special reduced the presence of security forces Moussa. South Sudan has pledged to Envoy for the LRA issue. where they were desperately needed make an additional contribution of 500 and increased the vulnerability of troops in the coming months. Crisis escalation potential civilians in areas exposed to LRA The DRC’s troop contribution was in A recent report by the Washington- attacks. The security and political crisis line with the decision of the first based advocacy group, Resolve, claims in the CAR has also forced the CAR Ministerial meeting of the Joint that the LRA ‘killed fewer people, government to divert attention to Coordination Mechanism for the launched fewer attacks and had a dealing with the local rebel groups, elimination of the LRA in Addis Ababa higher number of defections in 2012 thereby making the LRA campaign less on 8 May 2012. The meeting requested than in recent years’. Resolve’s LRA important. The possibility of the LRA the LRA-affected countries to Crisis Tracker project, which monitors forming opportunistic alliances with designate Sector Commanders, and to the rebels’ activities in Central Africa, regional governments or other rebel contribute and deploy their also stated that the sudden decline groups in Darfur and the Great Lakes contingents under the RTF in their appears to have happened as a result region is also another possibility that respective sectors within an agreed of the strategic decision by Joseph can pave the way for the survival and timeline. Kony in mid-2011 to reduce killings of revival of the terrorist group. » 9

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Key issues and internal dynamics important because Ugandans made up faces many logistical and intelligence- the core of the LRA. ‘And because the gathering challenges. In the meantime, The additional troops provided by the LRA no longer operates in Uganda, the rebels continue to attack civilians. DRC makes it possible to fully every time a Ugandan combatant In 2012 the AU Special Envoy for the implement coordinated operations leaves the LRA they’re essentially LRA, Francisco Madeira, said that against the LRA in the Dungu and irreplaceable.’ despite making some progress the Nzara sectors in South Sudan, and the regional task force still faced logistical, Kony is thought to be hiding out close Obo sector in the CAR.However, there material and financial resource to the meeting point of the CAR, South is an ongoing debate between the four challenges, which limited its Sudan and Sudan. Besides killings, members of the regional task force operations. The lack of proper abductions, rapes and looting, the LRA about operational matters. The financing and coordinated leadership is now also linked to the illegal ivory countries concerned are yet to reach could also hamper the mission. The trade in Gambara National Park in the consensus about how best to organise uneasy relationships and conflict north-eastern DRC. In February 2013 their troops. There is the view that each history of the national armies of the the Ugandan army recovered a cache troop-contributing country should countries involved in the operation are of elephant tusks in the jungles of the protect its territory from LRA attacks, further causes for concern about the CAR. The LRA is using the illegal ivory while there are also experts and likely success of the plan. officials who support a unified, trade as a method to acquire new coordinated force against the LRA that supplies or forms of financial support. Geopolitical dynamics will allow, enable and promote actions In January 2013 Ugandan soldiers Africa and RECs by the RTF in every country regardless announced that they had killed The second Ministerial Meeting of the of the origins of its troops. Brigadier Binany, one of Kony’s top Joint Coordination Mechanism (JCM) bodyguards who had also earned a According to the latest report by the of the RCI-LRA took place on 15 grim reputation for the abduction of international NGOs Invisible Children January 2013 in Addis Ababa at the AU children. The incident took place in the and Resolve, the LRA’s strength has Headquarters under the chairmanship dense jungles of the eastern CAR close declined and its capacity to carry out of the Peace and Security to its border with South Sudan. major operations has been reduced Commissioner, Ramtane Lamamra. The Sources in the Ugandan army said that significantly. In 2012, LRA terrorists meeting was attended by the Ministers in addition to being a top Kony killed a total of 51 civilians, down from of Defence and Chiefs of Defence Staff bodyguard, Binany had been in charge 154 deaths in 2011 and 706 deaths in of the member countries of the of food collection as well as abducting 2010, according to the report. In the RCI-LRA, namely the CAR, the DRC, the children for the rebel group. first half of 2012, about 190 LRA attacks Republic of South Sudan and the were reported in the region. That According to Resolve, the senior LRA Republic of Uganda. Also in number fell to 84 in the second half of commanders are operating primarily in attendance, as observers, were the year. The LRA killed civilians in 10 the CAR and the Sudanese-controlled representatives from Chad, the per cent of its total attacks in 2012, Kafia Kingi enclave. Among them are International Conference on the Great compared to 30 per cent in 2011 and International Criminal Court-indictees Lakes Region (ICGLR) and the United 50 per cent in 2010. Similarly, the Kony, Dominic Ongwen and Okot Nations. average number of people killed per Odhiambo. Maj. John Bosco Kibwola The meeting, which referred to the attack has decreased steadily in the and Col. Otto Agweng, two outcome of the meeting of Chiefs of past three years: 1,5 (2010), or three increasingly influential LRA Defence Staff of the member countries people in every two attacks; 0,52 commanders, are also reported to be of the RCI-LRA that took place in (2011), or one person in every two in the CAR or Kafia Kingi. Lt. Col. Bangui on 20 December 2012, adopted attacks; and 0,18 (2012), or one person Vincent Binansio ‘Binany’ Okumu, the mission documents of the RCI-LRA, in every five or six attacks. formerly a personal bodyguard to including the Strategic Directives, the Kony, was allegedly the ranking LRA The report estimates that at present Concept of Operations (CONOPS), the commander in the Congo for much of there are about 150 to 250 LRA fighters Rules of Engagement (RoE) and the 2012. He was killed by the Ugandan distributed in smaller groups in the Standing Operating Procedures (SOPs). military in the CAR in January 2013. DRC, South Sudan and the CAR. It is The Chiefs of Defence Staff and experts also thought that there are up to 400 Despite its size and military capacity, also met a day before the JCM in Addis abductees, mostly women and the group has taken advantage of the Ababa, discussing the operational children, traveling with them. In 2012, geography and the weakness of the elements of the initiative. The AU is two senior LRA commanders were armies and governments of the states planning to convene a meeting of the captured or killed and about 20 in the region in order to evade RCI‐LRA Support Forum in early April fighters left the group. The report elimination. The AU-led mission should 2013 in Addis Ababa to mobilise indicated that there was an increase in learn from past attempts and prioritise further resources for the successful the number of Ugandan members of civilian protection, as reprisal attacks implementation of the Initiative, both the LRA who were defecting or might expose people in the area to from member states and partners. In escaping from the rebel group. It noted further LRA brutality. The military the meantime, the Ministers of that the trend was particularly operation to hunt down LRA rebels still Defence will meet again in mid‐March » 10

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2013 in Juba, South Sudan, to evaluate reaffirmed the US commitment to help and continue the legacy of proxy the progress made and chart the way stop the kind of mass violence conflict in the region. The possible forward for the elimination of the LRA. perpetrated by individual terrorists and merger of the LRA with other regional The military campaign has mostly been terrorist groups like the LRA wherever armed militias in South Sudan, Darfur, focused on hunting the rebel fighters it occurs. or the DRC could effectively while also protecting civilians. multiply the magnitude of the existing On January 2013 the US also backed a security threat. On 24 February 2013, eleven African plan to use surveillance drones to countries signed a United Nations- support UN peacekeepers working in Options drafted peace deal to stabilise the DRC, the DRC. The US said that Washington Given the above scenarios, the where rebels allegedly backed by supported the UN’s proposal to use following options could be considered neighbouring countries last year unarmed, unmanned aerial vehicles, by the PSC to improve security and threatened to oust the government. for example, in the DRC to increase the stability in the region: The DRC, Rwanda, Burundi, CAR, surveillance capacity of the UN Angola, Uganda, South Sudan, South peacekeeping operation. US officials Option 1 Africa, Tanzania and the Republic of also said that the drones could be used The PSC could continue to request the Congo signed the accord. It is hoped to track down Kony. involvement of partners and the UN to that the new agreement will improve resolve the logistical and financial relations and cooperation between Scenarios challenges faced by the regional task countries of the region and help to Given the situation of the LRA and force by improving aerial and human enhance the fight against the LRA. state of security in the region, the intelligence in Central Africa. The PSC United Nations following are potential scenarios: could design a specific hybrid plan with the UNSC to develop a joint The UN is monitoring and supporting Scenario 1 response strategy, which would be the activities of the RCI-LRA through Improving regional relations and based on a close partnership with UN the United Nations Regional Office for cooperation, and resolution of the missions in the war-affected countries Central Africa. In December 2012 the crisis in the eastern DRC could shift the and which would address defensive UN Security Council called for an focus of Kinshasa to fighting the LRA. gaps in the eastern CAR as well as investigation into how the LRA was The new Infantry Battalion of 500 much of the northern DRC. Such being supplied and financed. soldiers contributed to the RTF could mechanisms could help improve the The UN-drafted peace deal to stabilise also enhance the hunt for LRA fighters safety of civilians in the region. the troubled Congo, where rebels and the protection of civilians. Option 2 allegedly backed by neighbouring Scenario 2 countries last year threatened to oust The PSC, through the AU special envoy the government, is believed to help The possibility of a rift in the LRA to the LRA, could try to include improve relations and cooperation leadership could result in more Khartoum in efforts to eliminate the against the LRA. high-level defections by captives. Such LRA. The envoy could also initiate a scenario would help the regional discussions between the DRC and International community force in gathering vital information on Ugandan governments to improve On 16 January 2013 US President the locations and patterns of the intelligence sharing and cooperation. Barack Obama signed a bill that group, thereby leading to further Option 3 authorised rewards of up to $5 million operational successes. The possible for information leading to the arrest of capture or killing of Kony with The PSC, in collaboration with wanted war criminals, including Kony. necessary external support could members of civil society active in the The move was hailed as an ‘exciting restrict the LRA’s sphere of activity and area, could encourage countries new tool for efforts to end LRA help capture or kill other LRA leaders affected by the LRA to take measures atrocities in central Africa’ by members and fighters, thereby putting an end to for healing trauma through traditional of civil society. As a result of the US two decades of LRA atrocities. and state conflict resolution and legal legislation, anyone indicted by Scenario 3 institutions. The PSC could also ‘international, hybrid, or mixed support more defection initiatives. tribunals for genocide, war crimes, or The additional troops could add more crimes against humanity’ became energy to the RTF. However, the newly eligible targets of the US logistical and financial challenges Documentation ‘Rewards for Justice’ programme. The faced by the task force might create Relevant AU documents US State Department is expected to fatigue and rifts between the different announce a financial reward soon for national armies that make up the Press Release – Democratic Republic of information leading to the arrest of mission. Congo hands over 500-strong Kony and his top deputies. An official contingent to the African Union-led Scenario 4 statement issued by Obama Regional Task Force for the elimination specifically named Kony as the first The possibility of Kony’s presence in of the Lord’s Resistance Army (13 target of the new programme and Sudan could escalate regional tension February 2013) Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. » 11

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Press Release – Important action- Resistance Army (LRA) (6–8 June 2011) situation in the eastern part of the oriented decisions adopted by the 2nd Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) Ministerial Meeting of the Joint Assembly/AU/6(XIII) (1–3 July 2009) PSC/PR/Comm.(CCI) (25 August 2009) Coordination Mechanism of the Communiqué on the implementation Regional Cooperation Initiative for the Report of the Peace and Security process of the Comprehensive Peace Elimination of the Lord’s Resistance Council to the African Union on its Agreement (CPA) Army (16 January,2013) Addis Ababa, Activities and the State of Peace and Ethiopia. Security in Africa, Thirteenth Ordinary UN Documents Session, Sirte, Libya (PSC/PR/COMM.1(CCCXLI)(13 S/RES/1861 (14 January 2009) November 2012) Communiqué on the (PSC/PR/2(CCXV) (8 January 2009) Resolution adopted by the Security Prevention and Combating of Report of the Chairperson of the Council on the Central African Republic Terrorism and Violent Extremism in Commission on the situation in the (CAR) Africa Central African Republic (CAR) Press Release on the 2nd Regional PSC/MIN/Comm.2 (CLXIII) (22 Ministerial Meeting on the Lord’s December 2008) Communiqué on the

Open Page Tanganyika (now part of Tanzania). In some 1,82 million square kilometres, 1967, Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda in extent slightly larger than Libya. signed a treaty to form the East The main organs of the EAC are the East Africa’s African Community (EAC) but, by Summit of Heads of State or 1977, the EAC concept had effectively Regional Government of the Member States; collapsed. Economic the Council of Ministers; the Co- The EAC was eventually successfully ordinating Committee; Sectoral Communities founded in November 1999 by Kenya, Committees; the East African Court of Tanzania and Uganda and officially Justice; the East African Legislative came into existence on 7 July 2000. Assembly; and the Secretariat. Burundi and Rwanda joined the EAC Introduction Summits take place annually. in 2007. South Sudan and Somalia Depending on how one chooses to However, any member state may have applied to join. The headquarters define the region, East Africa has a initiate an Extraordinary Summit of the EAC are located in Arusha, number of Regional Economic meeting. Decisions are taken by Tanzania. Communities (RECs) in the form of the consensus. The Chair rotates annually East African Community (EAC), the The EAC’s vision is a ‘prosperous, among member states. competitive, secure, stable and Inter-Governmental Authority on The current Chair is Uganda’s politically united East Africa’ and Development (IGAD) and the President , who itsmission is to ‘widen and deepen Common Market for Eastern and assumed the position in November Economic, Political, Social and Culture Southern Africa (COMESA), which 2012 at the 14th Summit Meeting of integration in order to improve the admittedly overlaps a number of the EAC, which took place in Nairobi, more geographically-specific regions. quality of life of the people of East Kenya. Among other decisions, the In addition, the Indian Ocean Africa through increased November Summit approved the EAC Commission (IOC) also qualifies as an competitiveness, value added Protocol on Peace and Security that REC, comprising Indian Ocean island production, trade and investments’. deals with cross-border crimes. states and territories. EAC member states created a Customs The Council of Ministers, among other EAC Union in 2005 and a Common responsibilities, establishes sectoral Market in 2010. In future years the The historical origins of the concept of councils drawn from its members to member states of the EAC intend to an East African REC or Sub-Regional address matters arising under the EAC form a Monetary Union and, Economic Community (SEC) can be Treaty. The Council of Ministers meets thereafter, a Political Federation of traced back to the Customs Collection twice annually and decisions are by East African States. Centre (Kenya and Uganda) of 1897 consensus. EAC Sectoral Councils and, thereafter, the Customs Union The total population of EAC member include those dealing with Defence, established by Kenya and Uganda in states exceeds 130 million people Finance and Economic Affairs, Foreign 1917, subsequently joined by occupying a total geographical area of Policy Co-ordination and Agriculture » 12

PSC Report Programme T | +251 11 515 6320/24/67/98 F | +251 11 515 6449 www.issafrica.org 11 Institute for Security Studies, Addis Ababa [email protected] Open page continued… and Food Security. Currently, there are part of the EAC. These include the IGAD has been designated a key sixteen Sectoral Councils. Lake Victoria Basin Commission pillar in terms of the AEC Treaty. (LVBC), the Lake Victoria Fisheries The Co-ordinating Committee consists IGAD’s main organs are the Assembly Organisation (LVFO), the Inter- of permanent secretaries responsible of Heads of State and Government University Council of East Africa for regional co-operation, and also (this supreme organ meets once (IUCEA), the East African Development meets at least twice annually. Among ayear); the Council of Ministers Bank (EADB) and the Civil Aviation other responsibilities, it implements (Foreign Ministers plus one Safety and Security Oversight Agency the decisions of the Council of additional focal minister meet twice (CASSOA). Ministers and co-ordinates the annually); the Committee of activities of the Sectoral Committees. The EAC has been designated a key Ambassadors (located in Djibouti, advises the Executive Secretary); and Sectoral Committees report to the pillar in terms of the African Economic the Secretariat (located in Djibouti, Co-ordinating Committee. They Community (AEC) Treaty. headed by an Executive Secretary, prepare the programmes in order to IGAD comprising the Office of the implement the objectives of the Treaty. The Inter-governmental Authority on Executive Secretary and the three The East African Legislative Assembly Development (IGAD) has eight divisions of Economic Cooperation, (EALA) is the EAC Parliament. It has 52 member states, namely Djibouti, Agriculture and Environment, and members – nine members from each Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Political and Humanitarian Affairs). partner state – plus sevenex-officio Sudan, Uganda and, most recently, The 12thIGAD Summit of Heads of members, namely the five Ministers South Sudan, which joined in 2011. State and Government met in Addis responsible for regional co-operation, IGAD member states occupy a total Ababa, Ethiopia, in January 2012. the Secretary-General and the surface area of almost six million Counsel to the Community. square kilometres and have a total Peace and security issues, as well as early warning of potentially disruptive The Counsel to the Community is population of almost 200 million. events precipitating such issues, have appointed by the Council of Ministers IGAD has its origins in what was been, and remain, a major focus of and acts as the principal legal adviser originally the Inter-governmental IGAD’s attention. In past times and to the EAC. The Counsel is also Authority on Drought and currently, Sudan, Somalia, terrorism entitled to appear in the courts of the Development (IGADD), constituted in and piracy have featured prominently partner states in matters regarding 1986 with a view to combating on the IGAD agenda. Food security the EACand its Treaty. drought and desertification in the and terrorism also feature on the The major responsibility of the East region. However, in the 1990s national agendas of IGAD member African Court of Justice is to ensure IGADD’s focus also began to include states. legal adherence to the interpretation regional security and political and application of, and compliance dialogue. By the mid-1990s its IGAD’s vision is to become the with, the Treaty. In this regard the member states had begun to premier regional organisation for Court would be expected to preside envisage a regional, economic, achieving peace, prosperity and over treaty disputes between partner political, developmental, trade and regional integration in the IGAD states, as well as disputes between security organisation similar to the region. Its mission is to assist and the EACand its employees or Southern African Development complement the efforts of its member questions concerning the compliance Community (SADC) and the states to achieve, through of national laws with the Treaty. Economic Community of West African collaboration and increased States (ECOWAS). cooperation, food security and The Secretariat, headed by a environmental protection; promotion Secretary-General, is the executive IGAD was officially established at the and maintenance of peace and organ of the EAC and runs the REC’s IGADD Second Extraordinary Summit security; promotion of humanitarian day-to-day business. The Secretary- in Nairobi, Kenya, on 21 March 1996. affairs; and economic cooperation and General is supported by four Deputy A few weeks later, the IGAD Council integration. Secretaries-General, whose of Ministers identified three primary responsibilities are: areas of cooperation: IGAD coordinates the activities of two Addis Ababa-based institutions– the • Planning and infrastructure • Conflict prevention, management Conflict Early Warning and Early and resolution and humanitarian • Productive and social sectors Response Mechanism (CEWARN) affairs secretariat and the IGAD Capacity • Finance and administration • Infrastructural development Building Program Against Terrorism • Political federation (transport and communications) (ICPAT). There are also a number of • Food security and environmental IGAD’s CEWARN Unit came into autonomous institutions that form protection existence in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, in » 13

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June 2003. This event followed the information at the grassroots and assessment for all IGAD member signing in January 2002 by the IGAD other levels; undertaking preliminary states that ranges from the best to the Council of Ministers of a Protocol analysis of collected information; worst from among a total of 187 Agreement to officially establish reviewing analyses received; countries surveyed. The UNDP CEWARN. formulating response strategies; rankings are as follows: Kenya (143), preparing periodic conflict early Uganda (161), Djibouti (165), Sudan CEWARN’s coordinating structures warning reports; and communicating (169), Ethiopia (174), Eritrea (177), include the Secretariat; Committee on information and analysis to the South Sudan (not surveyed) and Early Warning; Committee of CEWARN Unit. Somalia (not surveyed). Consequently, Ambassadors; and the Council of in terms of quality of life, the total Ministers and the Assembly. In ICPAT was initiated in 2006. Its primary population of IGAD member states addition, there is the Council of objective is to enable IGAD member falls into the bottom 25 per centof the Permanent Secretaries, comprising states to effectively combat terrorism world’s total, a factor that tends to the Permanent Secretaries, Directors and promote regional security encourage peace and human security General or equivalent ranks of the cooperation. ICPAT addresses these threats and makes facilities such as Ministries for Foreign Affairs. needs by enhancing judicial cooperation; optimising inter- CEWARN, ICPAT and ICPAC virtually In terms of the CEWARN Protocol, departmental cooperation; enhancing indispensable. member states may also involve border control; providing training, COMESA national and regional parliaments, sharing information and best academic and research institutions, practices; and promoting strategic The Common Market for Eastern and religious organisations, local non- cooperation. A Steering Committee, Southern Africa (COMESA) stretches governmental organisations and the chaired by the IGAD Secretariat, from Egypt to Botswana, making it as news media in early warning and guides ICPAT’s work. The Steering much a Southern as an Eastern REC; response operations and analyses, Committee comprises representatives and it includes Central and North particularly in terms of research, from IGAD states as well as non-voting African states as well as Indian Ocean raising awareness of early warning representatives from countries island states. Its official name, and response issues, alerting society providing core support to the therefore, does not adequately appropriately and conflict programme. describe the vast extent of this management and resolution at the particular REC. grassroots level. The IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC), located in COMESA comprises 20 member states, The Conflict Early Warning and Early Nairobi, Kenya, evolved from the namely Burundi, Comoros, the Response Units (CEWERUs) in each Drought Monitoring Centre (DMC) Democratic Republic of Congo, member state are linked to IGAD that was established in 1989 by some Djibouti, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, through the CEWARN Unit and the two dozen countries from Eastern and Kenya, Libya, , Malawi, Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Southern Africa. First conceived in , Rwanda, the Seychelles, South Sudan, Sudan, Swaziland, Each CEWERU comprises an optional October 2003, ICPAC became a Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe. steering committee, a focal point and specialised IGAD institution with the COMESA’s total population exceeds local committees. The Steering signing of the Protocol on 12 April 400 million and its member states Committee, which reports to 2007, which fully integrated ICPAC collectively occupy a surface area of CEWARN’s Committee of Permanent into IGAD. In addition to the eight approximately 13 million square Secretaries, would include IGAD member states, Burundi, kilometres (considerably larger than representatives of the central Rwanda and Tanzania are also China or Canada). Former COMESA government; parliamentary overseen by ICPAC. member states include Angola, legislators; representatives of the ICPAC’s Mission is to provide timely Lesotho, Mozambique, and provincial administration; police; climate early warning information and Tanzania. military; civil society representatives, support specific sector applications to including religious organisations; enable the region to cope with COMESA’s vision is to ‘be a fully academic institutions; research various risks associated with extreme integrated, internationally institutions; and whatever other climate variability and change for competitive regional economic representatives individual poverty alleviation, environmental community with high standards of governments may designate. management and sustainable living for all its people ready to merge development of member countries. into an African Economic Community’. The main functions of CEWERUs include collecting information The 2011 United Nations Its mission is to ‘[e]ndeavour to relevant to early warning and Development Program (UNDP) achieve sustainable economic and response; liaising with civil society Human Development Index (HDI) social progress in all Member States groups involved in collecting reflects a relatively low ‘quality of life’ through increased co-operation and » 14

PSC Report Programme T | +251 11 515 6320/24/67/98 F | +251 11 515 6449 www.issafrica.org 13 Institute for Security Studies, Addis Ababa [email protected] Open page continued… integration in all fields of objectives include in its priorities the mechanisms of cooperation for development particularly in trade, promotion of peace and security in political, diplomatic and security customs and monetary affairs, the region. issues, insular socio-economic transport, communication and development and management, and COMESA has been designated a key information, technology, industry and pillar in terms of the AEC Treaty. protection of natural resources and energy, gender, agriculture, the environment. The institutions of environment and natural resources’. The 16th COMESA Summit of the the IOC are the Summit of Head of Authority took place in November States, the Council of Ministers, the COMESA’s primary organs are the 2012 in Kampala, Uganda. On the Committee of Permanent Officials and Authority of Heads of State and subject of peace and security, the the Secretariat-General based in Government, the Council of Ministers, Summit’s Final Communiqué Quatre Bornes, Mauritius. the COMESA Court of Justice and the reiterated ‘the (paramount status) of Committee of Governors of Central peace and security for creating an The UNDP’s most recent HDI data Banks. enabling environment for investment reflect wide differences between individual IOC member states in terms In addition there are the and sustainable economic of development and the quality of life Intergovernmental Committee, the 12 development’. The communiqué also enjoyed by their individual Technical Committees (Administrative devoted appropriate attention to populations. The relevant HDI peace and security issues such as the and Budgetary Matters; Agriculture; rankings are: Seychelles (52), constitutional crisis in Madagascar; Comprehensive Information Systems; Mauritius (77), Madagascar (151), events in the eastern DRC and Great Energy; Finance and Monetary Affairs; Comoros (163) and Réunion (not Lakes Region; developments in Industry; Labour, Human Resources surveyed, although France was ranked Somalia; terrorist attacks in Kenya and and Social Affairs; Legal Affairs; 20). Natural Resources and Environment; Uganda; the elimination of the LRA; Tourism and Wildlife; Trade and the scourge of piracy; the Conclusion reconstruction of Comoros; progress Customs; and Transport and From the foregoing, it is clear that in negotiations between Sudan and Communications), the Consultative COMESA’s focus of interest and South Sudan; and attacks by Israel on Committee of the Business responsibility, as its name confirms, an industrial complex in Sudan. Community and other Interest extends far beyond East Africa. Libya, Groups, and the COMESA Secretariat IOC for example, as a COMESA member located in Lusaka, Zambia. state, is geographically neither part of The Indian Ocean Commission (IOC) Eastern Africa nor part of Southern The Treaty establishing COMESA was [Commission de l’Océan Indien in Africa. COMESA’s primary motivation signed on 5 November 1993 in French]is an inter-governmental is economic and it tends to leave the Kampala, Uganda, and was ratified in organisation created on 20 December region’s security concerns to IGAD and Lilongwe, Malawi on 8 December 1982 with the Declaration of Port- SADC. 1994. Louis. This was followed on 10 January COMESA replaced the former 1984 by the Victoria agreement, IGAD, despite the relative poverty, Preferential Trade Area (PTA), which signed in the Seychelles by Comoros, under-development and political had existed since 1981. COMESA was France (Réunion), Madagascar, instability of many of its individual established ‘as an Organization of free Mauritius and the Seychelles. The member states, is an ambitious and independent sovereign states which Maldives enjoys observer status. relatively sophisticated REC with an indispensable Conflict Early Warning … agreed to co-operate in developing The IOC is financed mainly by the and Response Mechanism as well as their natural and human resources for European Development Fund (EDF). unique and forward-looking the good of all their people’. The organisation executes and approaches to dealing with terrorist implements projects financed by the Its main focus is on the formation of a and environmental threats, in the EDF and other donors such as the large economic and trading unit form of ICPAT and ICPAC. World Bank, the African Development capable of overcoming some of the Bank, the French Cooperation, The EAC, on the other hand, exhibits difficulties and obstacles faced by UNESCO, and UN-AIDS. Its objective is an historical and contemporary focus individual states. By the year 2000, all to promote the sustainable on political and economic integration. internal trade tariffs and barriers were development of the western Indian to have been removed. Within four Finally, the IOC, being wholly Ocean islands. years after that COMESA was to have Francophone and geographically introduced a common external tariff The IOC represents the island states in exclusive as a community of islands, structure to deal with all third party international forums and defends has a largely maritime focus in terms trade that would have considerably their interests with regard to specific of physical and economic security. simplified all relevant procedures. environmental and economic issues. Piracy and environmental issues are COMESA’s other wide-ranging IOC member states have established especially prominent. Because its » 15

PSC Report Programme T | +251 11 515 6320/24/67/98 F | +251 11 515 6449 www.issafrica.org 14 Institute for Security Studies, Addis Ababa [email protected] Open page continued… abbreviated form (IOC) in English is membership states to pay their IGAD Climate Prediction and unfortunately shared with the membership fees. In addition, access Application Centre (ICPAC) website better-known International Olympic to aid, donor funding and loans Indian Ocean Commission (IOC) Committee and the UN’s should become less competitive. website Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, it might be useful for Only the willingness of key decision Inter-Governmental Authority on IOC member states to consider makers to explore all options and the Development (IGAD) official website political will to take difficult decisions changing the official English Khoti Kamanga, Some Constitutional on behalf of the entire region can designation to Commission of the Dimensions of East African Indian Ocean (CIO). ultimately determine success or failure in the long-term best interests Cooperation, Paper prepared for While overlapping memberships of of the people of East Africa. presentation to Kituo cha organisations with non-conflicting Katibawithin the ‘State of visions and objectives need not Sources Constitutional Development in East always result in duplication of African Union, Status of Africa’ project, Faculty of Law, activities, wastage of time and implementation of Early Warning University of Dar es Salaam. resources, and cost-ineffectiveness, Systems in the Regional Economic there is nonetheless no logical reason OECD, Conflict and Fragility: Preventing Communities, Background Paper No. 4, why a single REC, focusing on East War, Violence and State Collapse, THE 2008. Africa exclusively, could not effectively FUTURE OF CONFLICT EARLY WARNING address issues of political and African Union, Meeting the Challenge AND RESPONSE economic integration, economic and of Conflict Prevention in Africa: Towards Protocol on the Establishment of a social development, and peace and the Operationalization of the Conflict Early Warning and Response human security. Continental Early Warning System, Mechanism for IGAD Member States, In this regard, a merger of the goals edited by the Conflict Management Khartoum, 9 January 2002. and capabilities of IGAD and the EAC, Division of the Peace and Security World Bank, Regional Integration in as well as some aspects of COMESA, Department, African Union Africa, Eastern Africa: IOC – Indian all key pillars under the AEC Treaty, Commission, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, Ocean Commission, 2012. might simplify what is sometimes 2008. complex, fast-track that which is East African Community Portal, 2012. timeconsuming, and ultimately even achieve far more with fewer human Common Market for Eastern and and financial resources. It should also Southern Africa (COMESA) official make it easier for current multiple- website

PSC Report Programme T | +251 11 515 6320/24/67/98 F | +251 11 515 6449 www.issafrica.org 15 Institute for Security Studies, Addis Ababa [email protected] Important dates to diarise Contributors to this Volume 8 March International Women’s Day ISS Conflict Prevention and Risk Analysis (CPRA) Programme, Addis Ababa International Day for the elimination of racial 21 March Dr Duke Kent-Brown discrimination Dr Solomon Ayele Dersso Mr Abdelkader Abderrahmane 22 March World Water Day Mr Hallelujah Lulie Acknowledgements Ms Antoinette Louw 21st African Union Summit, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 19-27 May (theme: Pan-Africanism and African Renaissance) Ms Iolande Pool Mr Jean-Guilhem Bargues

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PSC Report Programme T | +251 11 515 6320/24/67/98 F | +251 11 515 6449 www.issafrica.org 16 Institute for Security Studies, Addis Ababa [email protected]