Swiss Equities Conference Presentations – 14 January
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Baader Helvea Equity Research SWISS EQUITIES CONFERENCE PRESENTATIONS – 14 JANUARY 2021 Track 1 Track 2 Track 3 08:30 - 09:10 (CET) Siegfried Holding Conzzeta COLTENE Dr. Reto Suter (CFO) Michael Willome (Group CEO), Martin Schaufelberger (CEO), Alex Waser (CEO of Bystronic & Member Gerhard Mahrle (CFO) of Conzzeta Executive Committee) 09:20 - 10:00 (CET) Givaudan SFS Group VZ Holding Gilles Andrier (CEO) Jens Breu (CEO) Matthias Reinhart (CEO) 10:00 (CET) Break 10:20 - 11:00 (CET) Clariant Sulzer HBM Healthcare Investments AG Stephan Lynen (CFO) Greg Poux-Guillaume (CEO) Erwin Troxler (CFO) 11:10 - 11:50 (CET) Galenica Bossard ORIOR Felix Burkhard (CFO) Dr. Daniel Bossard (CEO), Andreas Lindner (CFO) Stephan Zehnder (Group CFO) 12:00 - 12:40 (CET) Sika Credit Suisse Idorsia Adrian Widmer (CFO) André Helfenstein Andrew C. Weiss (CEO of Swiss Universal Bank), (Member of Leadership Team/Head Antoine Boublil of IR & CC) (CFO of Swiss Universal Bank) 12:40 (CET) Break 13:40 - 14:20 (CET) VAT Group Landis+Gyr Swiss Prime Site Mike Allison (CEO), Werner Lieberherr (CEO) René Zahnd (CEO) Stephan Bergamin (CFO) 14:30 - 15:10 (CET) Geberit ALSO Holding PSP Swiss Property Christian Buhl (CEO) Prof. Dr. Ing. Gustavo Möller-Hergt (CEO), Giacomo Balzarini (CEO), Dr. Ralf Retzko (CFO) Vasco Cecchini (CCO & Head of IR) 15:10 (CET) Break 15:30 - 16:10 (CET) LafargeHolcim Dufry Allreal-Gruppe Jan Jenisch (CEO) Yves Gerster (CFO) Roger Herzog (CEO), Thomas Wapp (CFO) 16:20 - 17:00 (CET) SIG Combibloc Group Cembra Money Bank Mobimo Samuel Sigrist (CEO), Robert Oudmayer (CEO), Daniel Ducrey (CEO), Frank Herzog (CFO) Pascal Perritaz (CFO) Stefan Hilber (CFO) 17:10 - 17:50 (CET) Adecco Group Schweiter Technologies Hiag Immobilien Coram Williams (CFO) Dr. Heinz O. Baumgartner (CEO) Marco Feusi (CEO), 17:50 (CET) End ONE-ON-ONE MEETINGS ONLY . Zurich Insurance Group Ltd. Swissquote Gianni Vitale (IR), Samuel Han (IR) Yvan Cardenas (CFO) . Vontobel . SENSIRION Thomas Heinzl (CFO) Dr. Andrea Wüest (Director IR and M&A) . BB Biotech . Metall Zug Maria-Grazia Iten-Alderuccio (IR), Dr. Silvia Siegfried-Schanz (IR) Daniel Keist (CFO), Martin Wipfli (VRP) . OC Oerlikon Philipp Müller (CFO Important Disclosures: Please follow the hyperlink embedded in this document’s Disclaimer and read 1 the information contained in Sections A-F, as well as country specific information contained in Section G. Baader Europe Adecco Human Resources / Switzerland New strategy brings in new structure Reduce Upside: -12.3% Our investment view Target Price (6 months) CHF 52.6 Share Price CHF 60.0 With its new Future@Work strategy Adecco repositions itself as a brand-driven Market Cap. CHFM 9,728 entity and aims to leverage the human touch to drive digitalisation, which it Price Momentum STRONG considers as the key to driving growth in a fragmented market. Adecco is a global Extremes 12Months 29.6 60.0 leader in the employment services industry with a market share of more than 5%. Fundamental Strength 2 /10 Its key service offerings, through 10 different brands include office and industrial Bloomberg ADEN SW Equity staffing, professional staffing, and talent development & career transition. Reuters ADEN.S However, the employment services (global HR) market is fragmented, thus, breeding competition. Moreover, the market is tightly regulated in most major countries and is heavily driven by the state of the economy (GDP). These factors, combined with the fact that networks with digital moats such as LinkedIn and Xing are part of the competition, make digitalisation a key driver for Adecco to focus and capitalise upon and with its Future@Work strategy it aims to do just that. Under this new strategy the group intends to ride the structural trends (hybrid working, upskilling, reskilling, etc.) with its economies of scale, to drive differentiation and improve its cost structure by pushing forward already proven products. Moreover, the group, in FY21, will reorient itself from a geography- driven model to a brand-driven model with a unique strategy for each of the three brands (Adecco, Talent Solutions and Modis) to achieve the brand-specific goals Analyst : Kulwinder RAJPAL set out at its CMD that took place a month ago. Equity Sales What to ask the management? [email protected] Frankfurt +49 69 1388 1357 - Geographically, France and North America, your two biggest markets, have London +44 20 7054 7100 Munich +49 89 5150 1850 shown below market growth in the recent past. What is your strategy to achieve at Zurich +41 43 388 9200 least market level organic growth in these regions? And what could be the timeline New York +1 212 935 5150 for this to materialise? PERF 1w 1m 3m 12m - Under the new Future@Work strategy, Modis aims to carve out a niche for itself. Adecco 1.45% 8.18% 19.1% 4.77% What steps do you consider to be absolutely necessary to do so? Support Services 1.82% 6.46% 5.97% 10.3% - Given that the balance sheet and liquidity position remain strong, will the share STOXX 600 1.54% 3.45% 11.1% -2.45% buy-back programme be launched in H1 FY21 or is it too optimistic to assume so? Sector Opinion Underweight - Could we see some opportunistic acquisitions in FY21? If yes, do you think Strongest upside Securitas these acquisitions are likely to be done in Talent Solutions in line with your Worst potential Adecco ambition to create an end-to-end offering? - In the context of the current macro-economic environment and the emergence of Last updated: 25/11/2020 12/19A 12/20E 12/21E 12/22E hybrid working, how has the correlation of the former to Adecco’s business Adjusted P/E (x) 10.6 27.3 17.0 14.8 generation shifted? Dividend yield (%) 4.08 4.64 3.70 3.70 EV/EBITDA(R) (x) 8.93 15.4 12.2 10.6 Adjusted EPS (€) 4.60 1.64 3.26 3.75 Growth in EPS (%) 4.36 -64.4 99.3 14.9 Dividend (CHF) 2.22 2.22 2.22 2.22 Sales (€M) 23,427 18,498 20,718 21,339 EBITA margin (%) 4.22 2.39 3.66 4.08 Attributable net profit (€M) 727 264 525 604 ROE (after tax) (%) 19.3 6.41 12.3 13.6 Gearing (%) 24.8 19.4 20.2 18.2 Sales by Geography Valuation Summary Benchmarks Value Weight Largest comparables DCF CHF 49.4 35% Bureau Veritas NAV/SOTP per share CHF 48.4 20% Randstad Holding EV/Ebitda CHF 50.2 20% Securitas P/E CHF 69.1 10% Dividend Yield CHF 53.8 10% P/Book CHF 66.7 5% TARGET PRICE CHF 52.6 100% Consolidated P&L Accounts 12/19A 12/20E 12/21E Balance Sheet 12/19A 12/20E 12/21E Sales €M 23,427 18,498 20,718 Goodwill €M 2,846 2,846 2,846 Change in sales % -1.84 -21.0 12.0 Total intangible €M 3,178 3,176 3,174 Change in staff costs % 2.60 -1.53 -0.78 Tangible fixed assets €M 318 305 300 EBITDA €M 1,159 623 947 Financial fixed assets €M 83.0 85.0 87.0 EBITDA(R) margin % 4.95 3.37 4.57 WCR €M 3,481 3,365 3,500 Depreciation €M -107 -115 -123 Other assets €M 617 620 625 Underlying operating profit €M 988 443 759 Total assets (net of short term liab.) €M 8,391 8,181 8,336 Operating profit (EBIT) €M 1,108 393 759 Ordinary shareholders' equity €M 3,940 4,286 4,244 Net financial expense €M -32.0 -28.0 -28.0 Quasi Equity & Preferred €M of which related to pensions €M 4.74 4.96 Minority interests €M 8.00 8.00 8.00 Exceptional items & other €M Provisions for pensions €M 0.00 -32.3 -23.2 Corporate tax €M -348 -100 -205 Other provisions for risks and liabilities €M 1,921 1,800 1,950 Equity associates €M Total provisions for risks and liabilities €M 1,921 1,768 1,927 Minority interests €M -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 Tax liabilities €M 45.0 40.0 38.0 Adjusted attributable net profit €M 747 264 525 Other liabilities €M 1,647 1,250 1,230 NOPAT €M 692 307 528 Net debt (cash) €M 830 829 889 Cashflow Statement Total liab. and shareholders' equity €M 8,391 8,181 8,336 EBITDA €M 1,159 623 947 Capital Employed Change in WCR €M 146 116 -135 Capital employed after depreciation €M 7,492 7,331 7,486 Actual div. received from equity holdi... €M 0.00 0.00 0.00 Profits & Risks Ratios Paid taxes €M -256 -100 -205 ROE (after tax) % 19.3 6.41 12.3 Exceptional items €M ROCE % 9.23 4.18 7.05 Other operating cash flows €M -169 -150 -130 Gearing (at book value) % 24.8 19.4 20.2 Total operating cash flows €M 880 489 477 Adj. Net debt/EBITDA(R) x 1.09 1.97 1.39 Capital expenditure €M -156 -130 -135 Interest cover (x) x 30.9 13.5 23.0 Total investment flows €M 324 -150 -150 Valuation Ratios Net interest expense €M -32.0 -28.0 -28.0 Dividends (parent company) €M -360 -360 -360 Reference P/E (benchmark) x 10.6 27.3 17.0 Dividends to minorities interests €M 0.00 0.00 0.00 Free cash flow yield % 8.80 4.60 3.53 New shareholders' equity €M -87.0 0.00 -50.0 P/Book x 2.00 1.68 2.10 Total financial flows €M -525 -957 -92.0 Dividend yield % 4.08 4.64 3.70 Change in cash position €M 697 -607 246 EV Calculation Free cash flow (pre div.) €M 692 331 314 Market cap €M 7,864 7,190 8,910 Per Share Data + Provisions €M 1,921 1,768 1,927 No.