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KL-SG High Speed Rail Riding the HSR Revival 19 SECTOR BRIEFING DBS Asian Insights 77DBS Group Research • July 2019 KL-SG High Speed Rail Riding the HSR Revival 19 DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 77 02 KL-SG High Speed Rail Riding the HSR Revival Tjen San CHONG, CFA [email protected] QUAH He Wei, CFA [email protected] Produced by: Asian Insights Office • DBS Group Research go.dbs.com/research @dbsinsights [email protected] Wen Nan Tan Editor Martin Tacchi Art Director 19 DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 77 03 04 Executive Summary KL-SG HSR: Potential Migration 09 Impacts Potential Parties for HSR Project 11 Structure 14 Potential Construction Beneficiaries 17 Case Study: Jakarta-Bandung HSR 22 Financing 23 Impact on Property Market Malaysia property market needs to be revitalised Strong impetus for economic uplift? Greater KL: Commercial development Johor: Industrial development Melaka: Tourism Transit-oriented development: Residential migration 41 Key Risks DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 77 04 Executive Summary Kuala Lumpur – Singapore High Speed Rail: An Introduction The initial idea for the Kuala Lumpur – Singapore High Speed Rail (KL-SG HSR) project took a more concrete shape when leaders of both countries met at a leaders’ retreat in October 2013. The idea was explored between both nations in the 1990s and was on the cusp of coming to fruition until the conclusion of Malaysia’s 14th General Elections (GE14) in May 2018. After the new government took over, this project was postponed until May 2020. In September 2018, both Malaysia and Singapore agreed to postpone the construction of the project until May 2020. Malaysia’ Minister of Economic Affairs Datuk Seri Azmin Ali and Singapore Transport Minister Khaw Boon Wan exchanged legal documents pertaining to this, postponing the start of HSR’s operations to 1 Jan 2031 instead of 31 December 2026. According to a study, the economic benefits of the HSR is estimated at RM 21bn of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the year 2060 with 442,000 jobs created. This is on top of the multiple benefits of its construction estimated at RM 70bn, with direct and indirect GDP impact of RM 29bn. It is estimated that the service will carry 22m passengers in year 10 of operations for all travel routes. The Prime Minister of Malaysia Tun Mahathir Mohamad said in early April 2019 that he was exploring proposals to reduce HSR’s total cost. He admitted that the project has potential economic benefits for both countries but it has to be feasible and sustainable. However, in mid-April he changed his tune somewhat, focusing on improving the existing railway system through electrification and double tracking. His main rationale is that the HSR service should be for travel of more than six hours, such as services from Johor to Penang, or even Thailand. Is revival of HSR imminent? In our view, the revival of the HSR looks imminent given two key events in 2Q19. First, MyHSR sought a TAC via an open tender. This TAC will be tasked to review the technical aspects and recommendations following the Malaysian government’s revisions including alignment, stations and HSR maintenance, as well as on the ground data collection activities such as topography survey data, soil investigation and ground condition assessments. In May 2018, MyHSR called for a tender to appoint a commercial advisory consultant (CAC). The CAC will be required to develop a new business model that will enable optimal project life- cycle cost, provide updated ridership forecasts and assessments of the HSR’s benefits. DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 77 05 Second is the revival of the Bandar Malaysia project. On 19 April 2019, Mahathir announced that the Bandar Malaysia project will be revived but with some changes. The original master developer, a consortium of Iskandar Waterfront Holdings Bhd and China Railway Engineering Corp Sdn Bhd (IWH-CREC), had 60 days to pay the original deposit sum of RM741m with an additional RM500m.The plan will also now include 10,000 affordable housing units, a people’s park, Bumiputra (indigenous Malays) participation throughout the project, and priority for local content and materials. Economic Affairs Minister Azmin added that the revived Bandar Malaysia project will be driven by the private sector and not receive government funding. The key focus of this project is to make Malaysia a financial hub, apart from the other commercial and residential content. Bandar Malaysia and In our view, the success of Bandar Malaysia hinges on transport connectivity. Bandar Malaysia HSR go hand in hand was initially earmarked for the HSR terminus (starting point). There were also supposed to be two underground stations at Bandar Malaysia for MRT2 before this was put on hold. The revival of Bandar Malaysia will likely be a precursor to the eventual continuation of the HSR project in May 2020. Further delays mean The key question now is if the Singapore government will allow further deferment of this more compensation project beyond May 2020 without additional compensation from Malaysia. So far, Malaysia has paid Singapore SGD15m in compensation for the project’s delay. Any further delays would likely lead to much larger compensation. Structure of HSR The bulk of the project’s structure will still be relatively intact. However, financing and cost largely intact structure will likely take precedence. In this report, we will attempt to make reasonable guesstimates on how the new government will structure this project. However, much of the report is still based on the previous structure. We believe the entity that offers the most holistic financing solution for this project will have an upper hand. HSR offers shortest travel time Malaysia-Singapore Source: MyHSR DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 77 06 Shortest travel time The HSR is envisaged to provide the shortest travelling time between both countries, inclusive of travelling time to the HSR Stations and clearing immigration. Compared to the fastest alternative today of air travel, the time saved is estimated at two hours. Still 7 stations The HSR project will include 7 stations in Malaysia – Bandar Malaysia, Sepang-Putrajaya, Seremban, Melaka, Muar, Batu Pahat and Iskandar Puteri, before reaching its last destination in Jurong East, Singapore. The total length of the rail will be 350km (335km in Malaysia and 15km in Singapore). Three CIQs and one The estimated travelling time is 90 minutes for the 350km distance. Great emphasis has immigration check been placed on better and more seamless Customs, Immigration and Quarantine (CIQ) point connectivity. There are three CIQ check points in Bandar Malaysia, Iskandar Puteri and Jurong East. There will only be one immigration check point. For example, if you board the train in Bandar Malaysia, there will be only one immigration check point there and none in Jurong East. HSR alignment Source: MyHSR DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 77 07 Three services There are three HSR services expected: 1. Direct service (90 minutes) 2. Domestic service in Malaysia 3. Shuttle service from Iskandar Puteri to Singapore. Passengers will only need to undergo one CIQ clearance in either Singapore or Malaysia at their point of departure. HSR: CIQ Analysis Passengers’ route Service(s) Kuala Lumpur to Singapore Express Singapore to Kuala Lumpur Express Anywhere in Malaysia to Singapore Domestic + Shuttle Singapore to Anywhere in Malaysia Domestic + Shuttle Iskandar Puteri to Singapore Shuttle Singapore to Iskandar Puteri Shuttle Source: MyHSR DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 77 08 KL-SG HSR : Milestones Date Event 19-Oct-13 Joint Statement by both Malaysia and Singapore Prime Ministers at the Leaders' Retreat in Singapore to build the HSR 7-Apr-14 Both Prime Ministers at Leaders' Retreat in Putrajaya reiterated commitment for the project 19-Jul-16 Joint SPAD and LTA on MOU for HSR 29-Jul-16 MyHSR appoints CH2M as technical advisor 13-Dec-16 Joint SPAD and LTA releases fact sheet on HSR which is similar to the MOU 19-Sep-17 MyHSR and LTA to conduct ticketing and fare collection discussions 28-Sep-17 Second industry briefing for HSR 2-Nov-17 Public inspection commences for a period of three months 20-Nov-17 MyHSR to launch PDP tender 20-Dec-17 Launch of AssetCo tender 26-Dec-17 EIA ready for public viewing 5-Jan-18 Social Impact Assessment contract awarded to ERE Consulting 23-Jan-18 MyHSR and SG HSR successfully held a briefing for the AssetsCo tender in KL. 8-Feb-18 Public inspection exercise concluded where 95% of public feedback received were supportive of the project, with an overwhelming 98% of positive response received from Kuala Lumpur and Johor. Most of the total respondents were represented by the 21-40 age group. 7-Mar-18 MyHSR will call for a tender to appoint the Final Survey Consultants (FSC) on 9 March 2018. The FSC tender will be divided into 6 packages, with 3 packages reserved for Bumiputera firms. The main scope of the FSC are to conduct land survey and provide land administration support for the land acquisition process. Upon approval of the Railway Scheme, the identified land will be acquired by the government in accordance to Section 8 of Land Acquisition Act 1960 (‘Act 486’). The land acquisition application is expected to commence in June 2018 with the first land to be acquired for the main infrastructures (i.e.: stations, maintenance facilities, tunnel portals, etc.). 5-Apr-18 Two PDPs appointed for the Northern and Southern section. 5-Apr-18 Environmental Impact Assessment Study approved. 19-Apr-18 AssetCo tender extended by six months and will close on 28 December 2018. Results by 3Q19 May 18 New Prime Minister of Malaysia Tun Mahathir said project will be scrapped July 18 Tun Mahathir said project is deferred instead 5-Sep-18 Both Malaysia and Singapore Governments agree to postpone the construction of the project until May 2020.
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