2015 Annual Climate Summary

Fiji Meteorological Service

Issued by

The Director Fiji Meteorological Service Private Mail Bag NAP0351 Nadi Airport.

www.met.gov.fj Facebook Acc: Fiji Meteorological Service

FIJI ANNUAL CLIMATE SUMMARY - 2015

HIGHLIGHTS OF 2015

Issued • September 30, 2016 The year 2015 began with warm neutral state of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and a weak El Nino established in the middle of the year which intensified into one of the strongest events in the recorded history;

• The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) was displaced to the north In this Issue of its normal position through most of the year;

• Consequently, below average rainfall was experienced which caused Highlights 2 meteorological drought and prolonged dry spell in parts of the country;

Year in Review 3-4 • Warmer day time temperatures and drier conditions prevailed in most parts of the country in 2015; ENSO 5 • Fiji’s mean annual total rainfall during the year was second driest in 59 Rainfall 6 years of record;

Mean • The annual average mean temperature was 0.2˚C warmer than normal ; 7 Temperature • Minimum The annual average daytime (maximum) air temperature was 0.4˚C 7-8 Temperature warmer than normal ;

Maximum 8-9 • The annual average night -time (minimum) air temperature was 0.1˚C Temperature warmer than normal ;

Sunshine 9 • The cloud cover in the Fiji region was normal during most of the months;

Water Level 9 • The sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Fiji region were mostly near normal; Wind Summary 10 • A total of forty -six (46) new climate records were established in 2015 which included thirty seven (37) temperature, eight (8) rainfall and one New Records 11 (1) sunshine records;

Sea Level 11 • The Trade winds over Fiji were mostly near normal during the year;

Seasonal Forecast • Bright sunshine hours were near normal in 2015; Verification 12 -13 • None of the tropical cyclones directly affected Fiji during 2015. Howev- er, strong winds and heavy rain were observed in some parts of the Tropical Cyclones country during the passage of TC Pam and TC Reuben; in SW Pacific 13 -14 Region • Sea level anomalies ranged between -10cm to -15cm in the vicinity of Fiji.

Tables 15 -16 Note: All comparisons are with respect to “Climatic Normal”. This is defined to be an average climate conditions over 30 year period, which Fiji Meterological Appendix 17 Service is currently using 1971 -2000 period as its “climatic normal”.

FIJI ANNUAL CLIMATE SUMMARY - 2015 YEAR IN REVIEW January’s weather was mainly influenced by troughs of April’s weather was largely affected by troughs of low low pressure, frontal systems, semi -permanent ridges of pressure, frontal systems and semi -permanent ridges of high high pressure and the Trade winds. On January 3 rd , a pressure. Warm and humid conditions prevailed which trough of low pressure to the east of Fiji drew closer to the caused daytime temperatures to rise to mid thirty’s and a group and lingered around until the 6 th . This system result- new maximum temperature record of 34.0°C was estab- ed in heavy rainfall and Suva recorded the highest 24 -hr lished at Tokotoko on the 13 th , surpassing a record of 33.0° rainfall of 105.0mm on the 4th . Hot and humid conditions C set in 2008. A high pressure extended over Fiji, and di- prevailed and Lakeba registered a new high maximum air rected a cool southeast wind flow easing the warmer condi- temperature of 33.7°C on the 4 th , surpassing the 1984 rec- tions. Fine weather prevailed with clear skies at night which ord of 33.5°C. The second event was on the 9 th when an- resulted in the night -time temperatures falling below 20°C. other trough approached the country from the west and On the 22 nd , daily minimum temperature of 17.2°C was resulted in a warm and humid northeast wind flow over recorded, exceeding the record of 18.4°C established in Fiji. Monasavu recorded a new high maximum air temper- 1974. Another new high daily maximum record for April ature of 34.9°C on the 9th , exceeding the year 2000 record was set during the month, with Lautoka Mill recording of 30.2°C. Later in the month, Monasavu recorded a new 17.8°C on the 22 nd . Exceptionally dry conditions prevailed high daily minimum temperature of 23.4°C on the 17 th , in most parts of Fiji with rainfall ranging from below aver- breaking the 2001 record of 22.6°C. Rotuma’s weather in age to well below average . Rotuma’s weather was mainly January was mostly influenced by the SPCZ and easterly influenced by the SPCZ and the trade easterly winds. trade winds. In May , given that a weak El Nino had established, drier Troughs of low pressure were the most significant weather than normal conditions continued to persist with majority of feature during February . The weather was normal as Fiji the centers recording below to well below average rainfall. entered this new month. The Trade winds brought brief On the 6 th , a trough of low pressure was located just to the showers mainly over the eastern part of the main islands. north of Fiji and it lingered around till the 7 th with th th From the 9 to the 11 , a trough of low pressure affected Nabouwalu recording the maximum 24 -hr rainfall of the country that resulted in Lautoka Mill recording the 45.0mm during this event. A ridge of high pressure extend- th maximum 24 -hr rainfall of 106.0mm on the 11 . Towards ed over the country on the 8 th and influenced weather until the latter part of the month, another trough affected the the 26 th . A cool southeast wind flow persisted over the Group. A weak low developed along this trough and both country with fine weather. On the 19 th , Matei Airfield moved over the country from the northwest. This resulted (Taveuni) recorded a new daily minimum temperature of in heavy rainfall, with Nausori Airport, Tokotoko (Navua), 17.0°C replacing the record of 18.0°C established in 2006. Laucala -Bay (Suva) and Koronivia recording a 24 -hr maxi- On the 26 th , Matuku observed another new daily minimum mum rainfall of 205.0mm, 150.9mm, 112.5mm and temperature of 16.3°C breaking the record of 16.8°C set in st 190.0mm on the 21 , respectively. In February, Rotuma’s 1960. Rotuma recorded a new high mean minimum temper- weather was mainly affected by the SPCZ and moist east- ature of 25.6°C, surpassing a record of 25.5°C observed in erly wind flow. 1998.

Tropical Depressions TD11F and TD12F were the most The weather for June was mainly influenced by ridges of th notable weather features in March . On the 9 , Tropical high pressure and the southeast trade winds. The SPCZ Depression TD11F further intensified, attained TC intensi- was displaced to the north of its usual position resulting in ty and was named ‘Pam’. TC Pam tracked to the far west drier than normal conditions in Fiji. On June 2 nd , a new of Fiji posing no direct threat to the country. However, high daily maximum temperature of 32.6°C was recorded at strong winds and heavy rain was observed in some parts of Matuku replacing the record of 32.2°C established in 1999. the country as Lakeba recorded the highest 24 -hr rainfall of A cool southerly wind directed by ridge of high pressure th 169.0mm on the 11 . Furthermore, TD12F approached the resulted in a minimum temperature falling to a new low of th group from the northeast on the 20 and moved southward, 14.2°C at Koronivia on the 25 th . Rotuma’s weather was close to the Lau Group. It further strengthened to cyclone mostly affected by the presence of the SPCZ and easterly intensity near Tonga. Subsequently, strong southerly winds trade winds. with heavy rain was experienced over the Lau Group. Ro- tuma’s weather was affected by SPCZ and the easterly trade winds during the month.

FIJI ANNUAL CLIMATE SUMMARY - 2015 YEAR IN REVIEW In July , El Niño was well established and was at moderate During the month of October , the SPCZ remained to the strength. The SPCZ remained displaced to the north of usu- north and SSTs in Fiji region were near normal. With the al position and the trend of suppressed rainfall continued exception of Monasavu, the trend of extremely dry condi- over Fiji. This was evident as majority of the country re- tions continued with below average to well below average ceived below average to well below average rainfall. July rainfall observed over the Fiji group. A new low rainfall was the driest at Viwa in its 34 years of historical record. record for October was established at Vanuabalavu, while On July 13 th , a ridge of high pressure system established the rainfall at both Lakeba and Ono -i-lau ranked 4 th lowest just to the south of Fiji allowed the southeast trade winds in their historical record. Towards the middle of October, to settle in. The high pressure system intensified and re- TD02F and associated trough of low pressure brought much mained slow moving causing the southeast trades to persist needed rainfall to the country with Monasavu recording a until month end. On the 18 th , a new high daily maximum maximum 24 -hr rainfall of 165.0mm on the 17 th . Strong temperature of 32.5°C was established at Tokotoko, break- winds were also reported during the passage of TD02F, ing the record of 31.5°C set in 2001. Later in the month, especially over the Western Division . On the contrary, the Matei Airfield established a new low daily maximum tem- rainfall received was not sufficient to completely ease the perature of 14.0°C replacing the record of 15.5°C set in dry conditions that were affecting the deep rooted plants 1986. Rotuma received average rainfall for the month of and large water bodies. TD02F also affected Rotuma with July. strong winds and heavy rain. However, Rotuma continued to experience below average rainfall during this month. Rainfall varied significantly for the month of August with parts of the country receiving well below average and other The weather in November was mainly influenced by parts of Fiji received above average rainfall. Rainfall in the troughs of low pressure and frontal systems, yet none was Western Division continued to reflect typical El Niño like significant. The trend of serious rainfall deficiencies contin- pattern with below average rainfall recorded at majority of ued to affect crops, trees, creeks, streams, wells and rivers the stations. On August 7 th , an active trough of low pres- over majority of the Western Division, northern parts of sure approached Fiji from the west that resulted in rain and Vanua Levu and islands in the Lau Group. A record lowest isolated heavy falls over most parts of the group until the total November rainfall was observed at Lautoka Mill and 9th . During this period, Udu Point recorded the maximum Dreketi. Lautoka Mill received only 2.4mm of total month- 24 -hr rainfall of 133.0mm on the 7 th , which brought some ly rainfall, breaking the 1997 record of 2.9mm, while short -term relief from the dry conditions. Consequently, Dreketi registered 30.0mm of rainfall, replacing the 1977 above average rainfall was recorded at Monasavu, record of 45.1mm. Rotuma’s weather was mostly affected Seaqaqa, Matei Airfield and Vanuabalavu, while more than by the SPCZ and the easterly trade winds. The island re- twice the normal rainfall was received at Udu Point. Ro- ceived average rainfall in November. tuma received above average rainfall during this month. Fiji’s weather in December was mostly impacted by troughs In September , the strong El Niño continued to exist, with of low pressure, a frontal system and TD07F. Rainfall dur- the SPCZ persistently displaced to the north of its normal ing this month varied across the country, ranging from well position. SSTs in the Fiji region were below normal . The below average to above average . Udu Point, Matei Airfield, weather in September was mostly affected by troughs of Savusavu Airfield, Vatukoula, Vanuabalavu, Lakeba and low pressure and frontal systems. On the 4 th , a trough ap- Ono -i-lau recorded less than half the normal rainfall for the proached Fiji from the west, moved over and later cleared month. On the other hand, Levuka, Nausori Airport, Lauca- the group on the 8 th . Rain and thunderstorms were ob- la Bay, Tokotoko, Dreketi, Rarawai Mill and Yasawa -i-rara served over most places, with Nasinu recording the maxi- received more than 120% of the normal rainfall. On the mum 24 -hr rainfall of 65.0mm on the 6 th . Much needed 31 st , TD07F and the associated weather resulted in substan- rainfall was also received over the Western Division and tial rainfall over most places. The maximum 24 -hr rainfall the northern part of the country. On the 21 st , two new daily of 233.0mm was recorded at RKS. Consequently, flooding high maximum temperature records were established. The of low lying areas was reported in several parts of the coun- first one was at Vanuabalavu with a daily maximum tem- try, which led to closure of roads and bridges. Rotuma’s perature of 32.0°C, surpassing a record of 31.5°C set in weather was influenced by the SPCZ and the passage of 1989. Nadi recorded a daily maximum temperature of tropical depression TD07F. 25.7°C, breaking a record of 25.4°C set in 1967. Less than half the normal rainfall was recorded at Rotuma in Septem- ber.

FIJI ANNUAL CLIMATE SUMMARY - 2015 LARGE SCALE CLIMATE INFLUENCES IN 2015—EL NIÑO SOUTHREN OSCILLATION (ENSO) Following the near -miss El Niño in 2014, one of the reached strong El Niño category during August 2015. The strongest El Niño events on record developed during 2015. SSTs in the central and eastern tropical Pacific peaked in The sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern late November with values comparable to the past strong El equatorial Pacific Ocean was more than 2 oC warmer than Niño events of 1997 –98 and 1982 –83. normal (Figure 1) for most of the second half of 2015, placing this El Niño event amongst the three strongest pre- The event led to below average rainfall over majority of vious events since 1950 (1972 -73, 1982 -83, 1997 -98). places around the country, with the Western Division and northern parts of Vanua Levu being most significantly af- Following months of weak ocean and atmosphere cou- fected. Severe rainfall deficiencies required catering of wa- pling, both oceanic and atmospheric features started to re- ter to many rural communities on the main islands and mar- flect El Niño like conditions from late March 2015. The El itime regions. Niño conditions continued to intensify and attained moderate strength by June 2015. It further strengthened and

Figure 1: Sea surface temperature anomalies during November 2015. SSTs were more than 2 oC warmer than normal in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, suggesting persistence of strong El Niño conditions. Graphic Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Figure 2: Southern Oscillation Index is an indicator of the persistence of El Niño conditions, with sustained negative values of the SOI below -7 typically indicating El Niño. Sustained negative values of SOI persisted during most of 2015. SOI Data Source: Bu- reau of Meteorology; and Graphic is FMS.

FIJI ANNUAL CLIMATE SUMMARY - 2015 RAINFALL IN 2015 Rainfall during the year portrayed typical El Niño pattern, driest year on record was observed at Vatukoula, Toko- with below average rainfall recorded at majority of the sta- toko, Lakeba, Ono -i-lau and Udu Point, with 4 th driest at tions. Out of the 25 rainfall monitoring sites (Figure 2a), 22 Penang Mill, Dreketi, Savusavu Airfield and Nausori Air- received below average rainfall and 3 recorded average . port. The annual total rainfall at Viwa ranked 5 th lowest on record. Extremely dry conditions persisted over some parts of the country during the year. The effect was particularly evident The wettest location during the year was Monasavu with over the Western Division, northern parts of Vanua Levu, 4457mm of rainfall, followed by Rotuma with 2852mm and smaller islands in the Maritime Zones. Water sources in and Tokotoko with 2601mm. On the other hand, the driest several areas completely dried up, having an impact on live- was Yasawa -i-rara with 985mm of annual total rainfall, stock and other agricultural commodities. Water was trans- followed by Labasa Airport with 993mm and Ono -i-lau ported to several rural and maritime communities. with 1005mm.

The national averaged rainfall during 2015 was 1380mm, The top three 1 day rainfall in 2015 were 233mm record- which was 944mm below the long term average of 2324mm. ed at Nasinu on the February 21 st , followed by 223mm at This placed 2015 as the 2 nd driest year in 59 years of record, RKS (Lodoni) and 214mm at Levuka, both recorded on with 1998 ranking the driest year on record. the December 31 st . Furthermore, it was the driest year on record at Dobuilevu, Koronivia, Labasa Airport and Matei Airfield, while it was 2nd driest at Laucala Bay, Matuku and Vanuabalavu. Third

Figure 3(a): Percent of normal annual rainfall during 2015. Most of the stations registered below average rainfall.

Figure 3(b): Time series of annual and 10 year mean rainfall for Fiji.

FIJI ANNUAL CLIMATE SUMMARY - 2015 MEAN AIR TEMPERATURE The nationally average annual mean air temperature was were recorded during the rest of the months. There was no 25.8˚C, which was 0.2˚C warmer than normal . This ranked significant positive departure at the station. 40 th in 59 years of record, equaling 2004 and 2014. The warmest year on record was 2007 with a departure of At Laucala Bay (Suva) , the annual mean air temperature +0.8 oC, while the coolest was 1965 with a departure of – was 26.1˚C, which was 0.4˚C warmer than the normal . 0.7 oC. Apart from May and August ( -0.6˚C), the monthly mean temperatures were normal to above normal for the rest of The annual mean air temperatures in 2015 were generally the months. Notable significant positive departures normal in most parts of the country. For monthly mean tem- (≥1.0˚C) were recorded in February (+1.2°C) and March peratures, the highest positive departure was recorded in (+1.1°C), with November at +0.6°C. The rest of the months February (+0.9°C), followed by March (+0.7°C), while nor- recorded normal departures. mal (±0.5°C) temperatures were recorded during the rest of the months (Figure 4). The annual mean air temperature at Nadi Airport was 25.9˚C, which was 0.3˚C warmer than the normal . Normal to above normal departures were recorded at the station, with the highest positive departure recorded in February (+0.9°C) and other months recorded departures within the normal (±0.5°C) range. Negative departure of -0.4˚C was recorded in August and -0.3°C in October.

The annual mean temperature at Lakeba Island (Lau Group) was 26.0˚C, which was 0.4˚C above normal . The monthly mean temperatures at Lakeba were normal to above normal . Notable significant positive departures of +1.9˚C was recorded in February, followed by +1.4˚C in March and +0.8˚C in May.

At Matuku Island (Lau Group), the annual mean air tem- Figure 4: Monthly average mean temperature departures perature was 25.7˚C, which was 0.2˚C above normal . The from normal. station recorded normal (±0.5°C) temperatures for about 83% of the year, while above normal temperatures were At Labasa Airport, the annual mean air temperature was recorded during the remaining months. Notable significant 26.1˚C, which was 0.5˚C warmer than normal. The highest positive departure of +0.9°C was recorded in February, negative departure from normal of -0.6°C was recorded in followed by +0.8°C in March. April, July and September. Normal (±0.5°C) temperatures

MINIMUM AIR TEMPERATURE The annual average night -time (minimum) air temperature was 22.0˚C, which was 0.1˚C warmer than the normal . In comparison to the other years, 2007 and 2013 are still the warmest years with 0.9°C, while the coolest nights were observed in 1978 ( -0.6°C) followed by 1968 ( -0.4°C).

The monthly average night -time air temperatures ranged from 19.8˚C to 24.2˚C in the coastal areas. Normal to above normal night -time air temperatures were recorded persistently throughout the year. There were no significant (< - 1.0˚C) negative mean monthly temperature departures recorded during the year, but the highest positive departure of +0.6°C was recorded in February, followed by +0.5˚C in November (Figure 5). Figure 5: Monthly average night-time (minimum) temperature

departures from normal.

Note: All comparisons are done against a “Climatic Normal”. This is defined to be an average climate condition over a 30 -year period. Fiji uses 1971 -2000 as its “climatic normal” period.

FIJI ANNUAL CLIMATE SUMMARY - 2015 MINIMUM AIR TEMPERATURE cont’d

The annual average night -time temperature at Laucala Bay trast, negative departures were recorded in April ( -0.3°C) (Suva) was 23.0˚C, which was 0.6˚C warmer than normal. and October ( -0.1°C) (Table 4). Nadi also recorded a Normal to above normal temperatures were recorded new daily minimum high temperature of 25.7°C on Sep- throughout the year. Significant positive departures (≥1.0˚C) tember 21 st (Table 2). were recorded in February (+1.4°C), March (+1.2˚C), No- vember (+1.2°C), while January, April, June, August, Octo- The annual average night -time temperature at Lakeba ber and December recorded positive anomalies < +1.0°C (Lau Group) was 22.9˚C, which was 0.2°C above nor- (Table 4). Negative departures were recorded during the rest mal . Significant (≥+1.0˚C) positive anomalies were rec- of the months. The station also recorded a new low daily min- orded in February (+1.2°C), followed by March (+0.9° imum temperature of 17.2°C on April 22 nd , replacing a 41 C), August and December (+0.5°C). April, June, July, year record of 18.4°C (Table 2). September and November observed <+0.5°C anomalies. On the other hand, notable negative departures were rec- The Labasa Airport annual average night -time temperature orded in January ( -1.5°C), followed by October ( -0.9°C). was normal . Significantly negative departures (≤ -1.0°C) from normal were recorded in May ( -2.0°C), April ( -1.6°), June, Matuku (Lau Group) recorded annual average night - July ( -1.5°C), March ( -1.3°C), while the rest of the months time temperature of 22.4˚C, which was -0.3˚C below recorded > -1.0°C. However, the lone positive departure of normal . Normal to below normal night -time air tempera- +0.1°C was recorded in November (Table 4). tures were recorded at the station. Notable significant negative departures were observed in October ( -1.2˚C), At Nadi Airport , the annual average night -time temperature May ( -1.0°C), September ( -0.8°C), November ( -0.8°C), was 21.5˚C, which was 0.6˚C above normal . Significant posi- August ( -0.7°C), June ( -0.7°C), January ( -0.6°C) and tive departures of ≥1.0˚C were recorded in February (+1.5°C), December ( -0.5°C). There was no notable positive depar- September (+1.2°C), November (+1.0°C), followed by Janu- ture at the station (Table 4). ary (+0.7°C), December (+0.6°C) and June (+0.5°C). In con-

MAXIMUM AIR TEMPERATURE The annual average daytime (maximum) air temperature was The annual average daytime temperature at Laucala Bay 29.6˚C, which was 0.4˚C above normal, ranking 2015 the (Suva) was 28.6˚C, which was 0.1˚C warmer than nor- 10 th warmest year. Apart from August to October period, the mal . The monthly temperatures ranged from 25.5˚C to country experienced relatively warmer daytime tempera- 32.2˚C. February and March were the only months with tures, with significantly warmer than normal (≥+1.0°C) de- above normal anomalies while the rest recorded below partures recorded in February and March, while the rest of normal temperatures. Notable significant negative de- the months recorded anomalies within the normal range partures were recorded in June ( -1.1°C), May ( -1.0°C), (±0.5°C) (Figure 6). July and September ( -0.8°C) and the other months had > - 0.5°C (Table 3).

The annual daytime temperature at Labasa Airport was 31.1˚C, which was 0.4˚C warmer than normal. Generally normal to above normal temperatures were recorded. The mean monthly temperatures ranged from 29.6˚C to 32.3˚C. Notable significant positive departures from normal were recorded in May (+1.1°C), followed by Janu- ary (+0.6°C), while the rest of the months recorded nor-

mal (±0.5°C) anomalies (Table 3).

At Nadi Airport , the annual average daytime temperature was 30.2˚C, which was close to the long term average of 30.3˚C. November was significantly warmer than normal with a departure of 0.9˚C, followed by March with 0.5° Figure 6: Monthly mean maximum temperature departures from C. On the other hand, it was notably cooler than normal normal. during August with an anomaly of -1.2°C, followed by There were eleven (11) new daily daytime (maximum) tem- September with -1.0°C (Table 3). perature records established during the year, with nine (9) new mean monthly maximum temperatures (Table 2). Annual average daytime temperature at Lakeba (Lau Group) was 28.9˚C, which was 0.5˚C above normal . The monthly daytime temperatures ranged from 26.7˚C to

FIJI ANNUAL CLIMATE SUMMARY - 2015 MAXIMUM AIR TEMPERATURE cont’d 33.0˚C at the station. Above normal maximum air tempera- temperatures fluctuated between 25.6˚C to 32.3˚C. Nota- tures were recorded during most of the months with notable ble significant positive departures (≥+1.0°C) from nor- significant positive departure of +2.5°C in February, +2.0°C mal were recorded in February (+1.6°C), March (+1.5° in March, +1.5°C in January and December, +1.4°C in April, C), May (+1.3°C), October and November (+0.9°C), July +1.3°C in May, +1.2°C in November, and +1.1°C in July. (+0.8°C), April (+0.7°C), while <+0.5°C anomalies were August to October recorded below +1.0°C. There was no recorded in January, June, September and December. negative departure recorded at the station (Table 3). There was no notable significant negative departure (Table 3). The annual average daytime temperature at Matuku (Lau Group) was 0.7˚C warmer than normal . The mean monthly SUNSHINE IN 2015

The annual total bright sunshine hours were near normal (within 10% of annual normal ) at Nadi Airport, while it was below normal at Laucala Bay. Nadi Airport recorded 2459 hours of sunshine, while Laucala Bay recorded 1697 hours (Table 1).

Nacocolevu (Sigatoka) recorded a new total monthly sunshine hours of 265.5hrs in November, replacing a previous record of 248.4hours set in 1967 (Table 2). This could be partly attributed to the presence of El Niño conditions, which usu- ally result in less cloud cover, especially of over the leeward side of the larger islands.

The annual total bright sunshine at Laucala Bay was 88% of normal . The station recorded above normal bright sunshine hours during the March to May period, while below normal sunshine hours were observed in February, June, August, September and December. The highest total bright sunshine of 212.0 hours was recorded in March, while the lowest of 92.0 hours was recorded in June.

Nadi Airport registered 97% of normal bright sunshine hours during the year. For most of 2015, below normal sunshine hours were observed. However, significantly above normal sunshine hours was registered during March and April. The sunniest month was May with 240.0 hours and February recorded the least hours of sunshine (145.0 hours).

Location Sunshine (hours) % of Normal Classification

Laucala Bay 1697 88 Below Normal

Nadi Airport 2459 97 Near Normal

Table 1: Annual sunshine hours in 2015 at Nadi Airport and Laucala Bay.

FLOODS IN 2015 Fiji Meteorological Service provides flood forecasting services in five major catchments namely Nadi, Ba, Sigatoka, Re- wa and Labasa. Flooding in low lying areas and flash floods are common during the Wet Season. Major floods are associated with active troughs of low pressure, tropical disturbance or depression and tropical cyclones.

In 2015, the flood forecasting division monitored several systems and only one flood event was recorded during the year. This was in the Labasa Catchment at Dreketilailai station in the Qawa tributary. A total of 12 flood forecast were issued from 01 January to 31 December 2015.

Out of these 12 flood forecasts, 7 were for flood alerts and 3 were for flood warnings were issued to low lying areas down stream of Dreketilailai station from 11 to 12 February.

The flood was associated with a trough of low pressure which poured 98mm of rain in 24 hours on 12 February, causing the river levels to reach a maximum flood height of 3.83m.

Note: All comparisons are made against a “Climatic Normal”. This is defined to be an average climate condition over a 30 -year period. Fiji uses 1971 -2000 as its “climatic normal” period.

FIJI ANNUAL CLIMATE SUMMARY - 2015 WIND SUMMARY - Mean Wind (10 minutes average) The 10 -minute average wind statistics recorded at every For Nausori Airport, calm conditions were observed on three hour intervals at Nadi and Nausori Airports, showed 40.9% of the occasions. Southeasterly wind direction was that east to southeast winds were the predominant wind the most common and accounted for 24.0% of the statistics, directions during 2015. The mean annual wind speed at two followed by easterly winds with 18.2% and southerly winds Airports were 6.3 knots and 4.2 knots, respectively. with 6.7% (Figure 8(a)). The wind speeds at Nausori Air- port were generally slight to moderate in strength (Figure 8 Nadi Airport experienced calm conditions on 4.5% of the (b)). instances during the year. Easterly winds were predominant, which accounted for 28.4% of the observations, fol- light air: 1-3 knots, slight breeze: 4–6 knots, gentle breeze: 7-10 lowed by southeasterly winds with 26.5%, and westerly knots, moderate breeze: 11-16 knots, fresh breeze: 17-21 knots, winds with 13.6% (Figure 7(a)). The winds at Nadi Airport strong breeze: 22-27knots, near gale: 28-33 knots, gale: 34-40 were generally light to moderate in strength (Figure 7(b)). knots

ANNUAL FREQUENCY OF WIND DIRECTIONS AND SPEEDS AT NADI AND NAUSORI AIRPORTS

Figure 7(a) Surface Wind Direction for Nadi Airport, Fiji. Figure 7(b) Surface Wind Speed for Nadi Airport, Fiji. (WMO (WMO 91680, Latitude 17 ˚45'35"South, Longitude 91680, Latitude 17 ˚45'35"South, Longitude 177 ˚26'42"East, 177 ˚26'42"East, Height above MSL 22 meters) Height above MSL 22 meters)

Figure 8(a) Surface Wind Direction for Nausori Airport, Fiji. Figure 8(b) Surface Wind Speed for Nausori Airport, Fiji. (WMO 91683, Latitude 18 ˚02'47"South, Longitude (WMO 91683, Latitude 18 ˚02'47"South, Longitude 178 ˚33'33"East, Height above MSL 3 meters) 178 ˚33'33"East, Height above MSL 3 meters)

FIJI ANNUAL CLIMATE SUMMARY - 2015

NEWLY ESTABLISHED RECORDS SET IN 2015

A total of 46 new climate extremes were established in 2015. Out of these 46 new records, 37 were for temperature, 8 for rainfall and 1 for sunshine. In comparison to the last two years, there were 39 and 56 new records established in 2013 and 2014, respectively.

There were 22 new monthly records established, of which 9 maximum air temperatures, 6 minimum air temperatures, 6 rainfall and 1 sunshine record. In addition, there were 24 new daily records, which included 2 rainfall (new highs), 11 maximum temperatures (all new highs) and 11 minimum temperatures (Table 2). February recorded the highest number of records.

Table 2 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total

Daily Rainfall - 1 - - - - - 1 - - - - 2

Daily Maximum Temperature 2 1 1 1 - 1 1 - 1 - 1 2 11

Daily Minimum Temperature 1 - 2 2 2 1 1 - 1 - - 1 11

Monthly Total Rainfall - - - 1 - - 1 - - 1 2 1 6

Monthly Maximum Tempera- 1 7 ------1 - 9 ture

Monthly Minimum Tempera- - 3 - 1 2 ------6 ture

Total Monthly Sunshine ------1 - 1

Total 4 12 3 5 4 2 3 1 2 1 5 4 46

Table 2: Summary of new rainfall and temperature records.

SEA LEVELS IN 2015

The sea level trend at the Lautoka SEAFRAME station for the period 1993 to 2015, is increasing at

+4.7mm/year. However, the observational record is relatively short in climate terms and therefore it is still prone to the effects of shorter - term ocean variability (such as El Niño and Pacific decadal oscillations). As the data sets increase in length, the linear trend estimates will become increasingly indica- tive of the longer -term changes and less sensitive to large annual and decadal fluctuations. Nevertheless, similar trend values are being observed across the region (Figure 9).

Figure 9: Sea level trend (mm/yr) in the Pacific Island region.

FIJI ANNUAL CLIMATE SUMMARY - 2015

SEASONAL CLIMATE FORECAST VERIFICATION

Fiji Meteorological Service used data from twenty six (26) sites around the country to monitor the climate of Fiji in 2015. The national, divisional and locality forecasts were issued seasonally (3 -month period) and verified for individual locations. Overall, there were 66% of consistent forecasts or had the total observed rainfall in the predicted category, 21% near consistent forecasts, 5% inconsistent forecasts and 8% of the forecasts could not be verified (due to missing observations).

The results for consistent, near consistent and inconsistent forecast for each station are presented in Figure 10. There was a high success rate in the seasonal predictions for the Western Division (72%), followed by the Central & Northern (67%), and Eastern Divisions (58%).

The overall assessment of the model performance in 2015 is rated as good to very good compared to the total variance explained by the predictor (SST) in the Fiji region. It needs to be noted that there are other factors that drives Fiji’s rainfall and the skill in the prediction can be significantly improved with dynamical modelling coupled with the skill and experience.

In total, three hundred and twelve (312) individual seasonal climate predictions were issued. Of these, two hundred and six (206) of the forecasts were consistent, sixty six (66) near consistent and sixteen (16) inconsistent forecasts, while twenty four (24) forecasts could not be verified due to unavailability of sufficient data or missing records.

During the wet season, there were 60% consistent forecasts, 27% near consistent forecasts, 6% inconsistent forecasts and 6% unverified forecasts. Similarly, during the dry season, 72% of the forecasts were consistent, 15% near consistent, 4% inconsistent and 9% unverified forecasts.

In the Western Division , 72% of the forecasts were consistent, 22% near consistent, 4% inconsistent and 2% unverified forecast. The dry season had a higher consistency rate (80%) compared to the wet season (65%).

In the Central Division , there were 67% consistent forecasts, 23% near consistent forecasts and 10% inconsistent forecasts. For Central Division, there was high consistency in the dry season prediction (83%) compared to the wet season prediction (50%).

For the Eastern Division , 58% of forecasts were consistent, 18% near consistent, 2% inconsistent and 22% unverified forecasts. The Eastern Division had higher consistency rate during wet season (60%) compared to dry season (57%).

In the Northern Division , 67% of forecasts were consistent, 21% near consistent,1% inconsistent and 11% unverified forecasts. The Northern Division has higher consistency rate in the dry season (76%) compared to wet season (57%).

For Rotuma , 25% of the forecast were consistent, 25% near -consistent, 50% inconsistent and 8% of the forecast could not be verified. Rotuma had 83% consistent forecast in wet season with no consistent forecast in dry season.

2014/15 TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK VERIFICATION Fiji Meteorological Service in its 2014/2015 Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Outlook predicted 6 -10 tropical cyclones to occur within the RSMC Nadi AOR. Two to four (2 -4) of these were anticipated to reach category 3, with 1 to 2 to reach category 4 or 5.

During 2014/15 tropical cyclone season, 16 systems developed, but only 5 systems advanced to a tropical cyclone stage, while rest of the systems remained in either a tropical disturbance or tropical depression stage. The 5 named tropical cyclones in RSMC Nadi’s Area of Responsibility (AoR) were namely; Niko, Ola, Pam, Reuben and Solo (Figure 11).

As predicted, two tropical cyclones reached category three and above, and one reached category 5. Overall, TC Rueben was the only cyclone in 2015 to reach maximum intensity of Category one cyclone, TC Niko and Solo reached Category two status, TC Ola reached Category 3, while TC Pam attained a maximum intensity of Category 5.

Severe TC Pam was regarded as the most intense tropical cyclone in the Southwest Pacific and the worst natural disaster in the history of Vanuatu. Pam tracked to the far west of Fiji and did not directly affect the country. However, the associated outer rain bands brought about heavy rain and flooding to low lying areas. Strong winds were also observed in certain parts of the group.

FIJI ANNUAL CLIMATE SUMMARY - 2015 SEASONAL CLIMATE FORECAST VERIFICATION

Figure 10: Percentage of consistent /near consistent and inconsistent forecasts at individual locations in 2015. Seasonal Outlook forecast could not be verified for Vunisea, Nabouwalu and Levuka due to more than 50% of missing observations.

Forecast is consistent when observed and predicted (tercile with the highest probability) categories coincide (are in the same tercile). Forecast is near-consistent when observed and predicted (tercile with the highest probability) differ by only one category (i.e. terciles 1 and 2 or terciles 2 and 3). Forecast is inconsistent when observed and predicted (tercile with the highest probability) differ by two categories (i.e. terciles 1 and 3). Forecast is unverified when forecast could not be verified due to data gap in

TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHWEST PACIFIC REGION The Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) - Tropical Cyclone Centre (TCC) Nadi Area of Responsibility (AoR) extends from the equator to 25ºS and 160ºE to 120ºW. Six (6) tropical cyclones occurred within the RSMC Nadi - TCC AoR in 2015. These tropical cyclones were namely; Niko, Ola, Pam, Reuben, Solo and Tuni. (Figure 11). None of these tropical cyclones directly affected Fiji, however, associated outer rain bands affected some parts of the country when tropical cyclones traversed close by.

Tropical Cyclone NIKO (Category 1) was the first cyclone to form in RSMC Nadi - TCC AoR in 2015. It formed to the northwest of Tahiti on the 19 th January and initially moved in a south -eastward direction. It was named on 21 st January when it was approximately 340 kilometres north of Papeete. Niko attained storm intensity on the 22 nd . At its peak, it had estimated sustained winds of 100 knots. It moved out of RSMC -Nadi TCC AoR overnight on the 23 rd as a category 1 system.

Severe Tropical Cyclone OLA (Category 3) was the second system named in 2015. It entered as a low pressure system into the RSMC Nadi - TCC AoR on the 29 January and quickly developed into a Category 1 system within 24 hours and was named “Ola” . Over the next 2 days, Ola continued to develop and attained hurricane force intensity on 20 February 2015. At this point, it was 510km west -northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia. Ola moved in a general southward direction and passed to the west of New Caledonia. It moved out of RSMC Nadi - TCC AoR in the early hours on the 3 Feb- ruary 2015.

FIJI ANNUAL CLIMATE SUMMARY - 2015 TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHWEST PACIFIC REGION –Continued

Severe Tropical Cyclone PAM (Category 5) was the third system monitored and was also one of the most intense system in recorded recent history for the region. It was first analysed as a low pressure system to the north of Vanuatu on the 4 March. Initially it tracked eastward as it slowly developed. It was named on the evening of 9 March when it was still over open waters approximately 1000km north of Vanuatu. Pam rapidly intensified overnight and by midday on the 10 March, it attained hurricane force intensity. Pam continued to intensify and gradually moved south -westwards, heading directly for Central Vanuatu. Pam made landfall on some of the smaller islands in the Shepherd Group of Islands but changed its direction to a southeast, thus passing just east of Efate. It made landfall again on Erromango Island just southeast of Efate Island. Vanuatu bore the full brunt of Pam as it made landfall as an intense category 5 system with sustained winds of 230km/hr. Pam damaged infrastructures, paralysed telecommunications with costs of damages amounting to millions of dollars. A total of 14 lives were lost due to Pam. Pam continued to move south -eastward and moved out of RSMC Nadi - TCC in the early hours of 15 March.

Tropical Cyclone REUBEN (Category 1) was initially analysed as a low pressure to the east of Fiji on the 20 March. It slowly developed and moved south -eastward. It was named on the 22 March when it was approximately 170km southwest of Nukualofa. It spent its entire lifespan over open waters as category 1 system. It moved out of RSMC Nadi - TCC AoR overnight on the 22 March.

Tropical Cyclone SOLO (Category 2) formed to the east of Solomon Islands. In the initial stages, it moved in a south - westward direction, passing in between the Solomon Islands and Vanuatu. It was named on the 10 April when it was approximately 890km west -northwest of Port Vila. It maintained its initial south -westward movement, but early on the 11 April, Solo started to intensify as it changed its course and started to move south -eastward thus heading directly for New Caledonia. On the morning of 12 April, Solo was less than 50km northeast of Belep Islands. Solo maintained its south - eastward movement and caught up by the strong wind shear and quickly lost its intensity. It was declassified on the evening of 12 April upon losing its tropical cyclone characteristics.

Tropical Cyclone TUNI (Category 3) was the first cyclone to be named in the 2015/16 Tropical Cyclone season. On 24 November, 2015 a low pressure system was analysed to the northwest of Samoa. The system was embedded along the convergence zone so it was slow moving. On the 27 th , the system was displaced to the south of the convergence zone and started to move south -eastwards. It was named in the evening of 28 November when it was 225km west -southwest of Apia. The system maintained its south -eastward track and remained over open waters but the associated trough affected Samoa. It was declassified to low pressure system on the 30 November after loosing its tropical cyclone characteristics.

Figure 11: Tracks of TC’s within the RSMC Nadi AoR in 2015

FIJI ANNUAL CLIMATE SUMMARY - 2015

TABLE 3: MAXIMUM AIR TEMPERATURE

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Max Labasa 32.3 32.0 32.0 31.5 31.3 30.3 29.6 29.6 29.6 30.9 31.8 32.2 31.1 Airport Dep 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 -0.5 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 Max Savusavu 31.1 31.8 31.0 29.2 27.8 27.0 26.7 26.4 27.0 27.4 28.9 29.7 28.7 Airfield Dep 0.5 1.1 0.4 -0.6 -0.7 -0.9 -0.3 -0.7 -0.4 -0.8 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 Max Penang 31.6 32.1 32.0 30.0 28.9 27.8 27.7 27.2 28.6 28.9 31.0 30.9 29.7 Mill Dep 1.3 1.6 1.5 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.3 -0.2 0.6 0.0 1.3 0.6 0.6 Max Nadi 31.4 32.0 31.8 31.0 29.7 28.4 28.5 27.5 28.3 29.8 32.0 31.5 30.2 Airport Dep -0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 -0.6 -0.1 -1.2 -1.0 -0.5 0.9 0.0 -0.1 Max 30.7 32.2 31.8 29.7 27.5 26.6 26.0 25.5 26.4 27.8 29.3 30.1 28.6 Laucala Bay Dep -0.1 1.0 0.9 -0.2 -1.0 -1.1 -0.8 -1.2 -0.8 -0.4 0.0 -0.2 0.1 Max Nausori 30.6 32.0 31.4 29.2 27.4 26.4 26.0 24.3 25.8 27.1 28.7 29.3 28.2 Airport Dep 0.2 1.2 0.9 -0.1 -0.5 -0.9 -0.3 -1.9 -0.8 -0.5 -0.1 -0.4 -0.3 Max 30.6 32.3 31.9 29.9 28.9 27.4 26.8 25.6 26.7 28.3 29.6 30.1 29.0 Matuku Dep 0.4 1.6 1.5 0.7 1.3 0.5 0.8 -0.2 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.7 Max 31.6 33.0 32.3 30.7 29.3 28.0 27.5 26.7 27.7 28.5 30.0 31.2 28.9 Lakeba Dep 1.5 2.5 2.0 1.4 1.3 0.7 1.1 0.3 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.5 0.5

TABLE 4: MINIMUM AIR TEMPERATURE

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Min 21.8 21.7 21.0 19.7 17.9 17.4 16.6 17.7 18.5 19.1 21.3 21.2 20.5 Labasa Airport Dep -0.4 -0.7 -1.3 -1.6 -2.0 -1.5 -1.5 -1.0 -0.8 -0.7 0.1 -0.5 0.0

Min 23.3 23.6 24.0 23.6 22.8 22.0 22.1 21.2 21.4 22.1 23.6 23.5 22.1 Savusavu Airfield Dep -0.2 -0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.2 1.0 0.5 -0.3

Min 23.7 24.3 23.9 22.6 21.9 21.4 20.6 20.2 21.0 21.5 23.7 23.7 22.3 Penang Mill Dep -0.3 0.4 0.1 -0.6 -0.2 0.0 0.2 -0.5 -0.2 -0.7 0.7 0.2 -0.1

Min 23.5 24.4 23.2 21.5 20.6 19.7 18.7 19.0 20.5 20.4 22.8 23.0 21.5 Nadi Airport Dep 0.7 1.5 0.4 -0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 1.2 -0.1 1.0 0.6 0.6

Min 24.8 25.4 25.1 23.4 22.0 21.7 20.5 20.9 20.9 22.2 24.0 24.2 23.0 Laucala Bay Dep 0.9 1.4 1.2 0.1 -0.2 0.3 -0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.3 1.2 0.7

Min 23.0 24.1 23.6 22.0 21.4 20.6 18.4 20.2 20.2 20.2 22.6 22.7 21.4 Nausori Airport Dep -0.2 0.8 0.4 -0.5 0.2 0.1 -1.2 0.6 0.0 -0.7 0.6 0.1 -0.1

Min 23.8 24.9 24.7 23.2 21.5 21.0 20.3 19.8 20.0 20.6 22.1 23.3 22.4 Matuku Dep -0.6 0.2 0.1 -0.7 -1.0 -0.7 -0.5 -0.7 -0.8 -1.2 -0.8 -0.5 -0.3

Min 22.5 25.3 24.9 24.1 22.7 22.1 21.0 21.5 21.8 21.2 23.2 24.2 22.9 Lakeba Dep -1.5 1.2 0.9 0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.4 -0.9 0.1 0.5 0.2

FIJI ANNUAL CLIMATE SUMMARY - 2015

TABLE 5: SUNSHINE HOURS AND PERCENTAGE OF NORMAL

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year

Actual 227.7 144.8 226.4 228.0 239.8 166.4 227.9 189.1 158.0 227.2 232.4 191.4 2459.1 Nadi Airport % 108 77 118 115 115 81 104 82 75 96 104 84 97

Laucala Actual 164.3 178.5 212.4 173.0 101.6 91.6 102.7 110.3 107.3 170.5 147.7 185.5 169.7 Bay, Suva % 85 102 125 112 70 65 76 77 79 104 88 70 88

TABLE 6: TOTAL MONTHLY RAINFALL (MM) AND PERCENTAGE OF NORMAL RAINFALL

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year

Actual Labasa 81.7 266.5 105.7 11.3 62.3 10.8 0.0 49.4 26.3 69.2 72.2 130.9 886.6 (mm) Airport

% 21 77 28 5 54 16 0 104 37 56 40 54 40

Actual 204.8 347.9 168.7 134.8 37.3 135.7 14.2 80.5 94.4 85.8 106.3 94.7 1505.1 Savusavu (mm) Airfield % 74 142 60 52 19 114 15 69 71 50 57 37 64

Actual 149.6 364.1 143.4 101.8 72.2 14.6 4.8 53.0 59.4 123.8 27.7 195.4 1309.8 Penang (mm) Mill % 38 108 34 38 45 15 9 73 62 109 17 74 54

Actual 205.8 346.6 154.0 94.5 2.8 14.8 15.8 49.9 63.0 25.0 28.6 181.8 1182.6 Nadi (mm) Airport % 60 119 45 59 3 23 35 77 90 25 22 102 63

Actual Laucala 292.1 273.1 189.5 82.4 92.0 55.2 53.3 132.5 127.9 98.3 45.2 363.8 3323.6 (mm) Bay, Suva % 79 103 51 22 34 34 39 84 72 45 18 131 110

Actual 312.5 311.4 172.7 141.6 150.6 81.1 69.8 138.8 159.8 124.4 74.6 378.4 2115.7 Nausori (mm) Airport % 86 116 45 39 61 54 60 95 97 64 30 142 73

Actual 98.5 221.5 149.0 58.5 52.0 55.0 29.5 129.0 102.0 29.5 35.5 115.5 1075.5 (mm) Matuku % 36 120 58 34 34 51 36 117 106 26 28 175 59

Actual 100.0 194.5 340.0 57.0 25.5 80.0 70.0 104.5 54.5 12.5 57 81 1176.5 (mm) Lakeba % 41 86 116 28 19 99 87 102 54 10 40 45 1909.6

FIJI ANNUAL CLIMATE SUMMARY - 2015 APPENDIX APPENDIX 1A : LAUCALA BAY, SUVA APPENDIX 1B : LABASA AIRPORT

APPENDIX 1C : NADI AIRPORT APPENDIX 1D : LAKEBA

APPENDIX 1E : SAVUSAVU AIRFIELD APPENDIX 1F : MATUKU