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State of Bremen Foreign Currency Long-Term IDR AAA Short-Term IDR F1+

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State of Bremen Foreign Currency Long-Term IDR AAA Short-Term IDR F1+ Public Finance Local and Regional Governments Germany Ratings State of Bremen Foreign Currency Long-Term IDR AAA Short-Term IDR F1+ Local Currency Long-Term IDR AAA Short-Term IDR F1+ Long-term senior unsecured rating AAA Key Rating Drivers Short-term senior unsecured ratting F1+ Ratings Affirmed: The affirmation of and Stable Outlook on the State of Bremen’s ratings reflect the unchanged assumptions of Fitch’s rating approach for the German Laender, under Outlooks which the ratings are equalised with those of the Federal Republic of Germany (Bund; Long-Term Foreign-Currency IDR Stable AAA/Stable/F1+). Long-Term Local-Currency IDR Stable Rating Derivation Summary: Bremen’s Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) are linked to the Bund’s. We assess Bremen’s Standalone Credit Profile (SCP) at ‘a+’. The SCP results from a ‘Stronger’ Issuer Profile risk profile and a debt sustainability that Fitch assesses as ‘bbb’ under its rating case scenario. The State of Bremen consists of the cities of No other rating factors affect the rating. Equalisation of the German Laender’s ratings with the Bremen and Bremerhaven with a combined population of 683,184 in 2Q19. It is the Bund’s is driven by the stability of the solidarity system underpinning the creditworthiness of smallest of the 16 German states and is, all Laender, irrespective of the key risk factors and debt sustainability assessment. together with Berlin and Hamburg, one of the three German city states. The solidarity system is enshrined in the German constitution and reflects the institutional framework of the Laender. Under the German constitution all member states of the federal republic are jointly responsible for supporting a Land in financial distress. If a Land experiences Financial Data “extreme budgetary hardship”, it is entitled to financial assistance from all other Laender and State of Bremen the Bund. This principle has been reaffirmed by the constitutional courts on more than one (EURm) 2018 2023rc occasion in the past, most recently in 2006. Economic liability 88.5 92.4 ‘Stronger’ Risk Profile: Bremen’s key risk factors are all assessed at ‘Stronger’. The ‘Stronger’ burden (%) Payback (x) 18.4 27.9 risk profile also reflects Bremen’s very good access to capital markets, corresponding strong Synthetic coverage (x)a 0.6 0.4 refinancing capacity and appropriate treasury facilities preventing any temporary delays in the Fiscal debt burden (%) 375.3 339.3 provision of liquidity and support. Net adjusted debt 20,640 20640 Debt Sustainability at ‘bbb’: In Fitch’s rating-case scenario, Bremen’s economic liability Operating balance 1,124 1,124 burden would be slightly below 95% in 2023 (2018: 88.5%). Debt service coverage (Fitch’s Operating revenue 5,499 7,438 synthetic calculation) would remain about 1x (2018: 1.1x), while this fiscal debt burden would Debt service 2,928 1,920 improve to 339% (2018: 375%) in the coming years. Fitch’s rating case is based on Mortgage-style debt 1,856 1,855 annuitya conservative GDP growth assumptions to test rating resilience through the economic cycle rc: Fitch’s rating-case scenario and also takes into account additional stress on the main operating spending driver. a Fitch’s calculation (see Appendix C) Source: Fitch Ratings, State of Bremen Additional Rating Factors: Bremen’s Long-Term IDR is rated on a par with the sovereign, reflecting the specific approach Fitch is applying for the German Laender. The ‘AAA’ IDR is primarily driven by the stability of the solidarity system that underpins the creditworthiness of Bremen, irrespective of its SCP of ‘a+’. IDR does not take into account any other extraordinary support from the Bund. No additional risk factors have been identified. Applicable Criteria ESG Considerations: The highest ESG score is ‘3’, meaning that ESG issues are credit-neutral. Rating Criteria for International Local and Regional Governments (September 2019) These issues are minimally relevant to the rating due to the mission of the issuer and the institutional page. Related Research Rating Sensitivities Fitch Affirms 11 German Laender at ‘AAA’; Outlook Stable (April 2019) Sovereign Downgrade: A downgrade of the sovereign ratings would lead to a downgrade of Germany (January 2020) Bremen. An adverse change to the most important institutional feature – the solidarity principle – could also lead to a downgrade of Bremen but Fitch believes this is unlikely. Analysts Guido Bach +49 69 768076 111 [email protected] Nazim Dadashov +49 69 768076 149 [email protected] Rating Report │ 14 April 2020 fitchratings.com 1 Public Finance Local and Regional Governments Germany Rating Synopsis Rating History SCP Positioning Table Long-Term Long-Term Foreign- Local-Currency Risk profile Debt sustainability Date Currency IDR IDR Stronger aaa or aa a bbb bb b 25 Oct 16 AAA High midrange aaa aa a bbb bb b 25 Mar 99 AAA Midrange aaa aa a bbb bb or below Source: Fitch Ratings Low midrange aaa aa a bbb or below Weaker aaa aa a or below Vulnerable aaa aa or below Suggested analytical aaa aa a bbb bb b outcome (SCP) Source: Fitch Ratings State of Bremen Bremen’s Long-Term IDR of ‘AAA’ is linked to the rating of the Bund. Its SCP is assessed at ‘a+’. This reflects the combination of a ‘Stronger’ risk profile (see Risk Profile: Stronger) and debt sustainability that Fitch assesses as ‘bbb’ under its rating case scenario (see Debt Sustainability of ‘bbb’), and no other rating factors affect the rating (see Other Rating Factors). Issuer Profile Bremen is located in the north-west of Germany and is the smallest of all Laender, both in terms of population and area (419.38km2). It comprises two cities (Bremen and Bremerhaven), which are about 53km apart. In 2Q19, the state had a total population of 683,184, an increase of 21,296 (3.2%) since 2014, driven by migration. According to the statistical office, Bremen’s population is likely to increase by 5% in 2015-2035. Given the city’s centre functions as a city state, Bremen attracts jobseekers that often stay while applying for unemployment benefit or social aid. This partly Source: Fitch Ratings explains why Bremen’s unemployment rate (10.2% in February 2020) is the highest among the other western states (4.9%) and Germany as a whole (5.3%). Socioeconomic Indicators Bremen’s nominal GDP of EUR34.3 billion increased by 2.1% year-on-year (yoy) in 2018, which was above Germany’s growth rate of 1.4%. Due to its city-state status influencing the Bremen Country number of inhabitants and thanks to its wealthy economy, its GDP per capita of EUR50,389 in Population (m) 0.7 82.9 2018 was the second-highest among the German states and well above the national average of 2011-2018 average 0.5 0.5 EUR40,851. annual population growth (%) Bremen’s economic profile is dominated by a broad services sector (trade, traffic, real estate GDP per capita, 2018 50,389 40,851 and public services), which accounts for 72% of gross value added (GVA). It is the second-most (EUR) important export location after Hamburg due to its harbours. Most of its exports are food (fish, Unemployment rate, 10.2 5.3 meat, dairy, tobacco and coffee) and Bremen is the most important reloading point for the February 2020 (%) automotive sector. The state focuses on the development of renewable energies. Poverty rate, 2018 22.7 15.5 (%) Risk Profile: Stronger Source: Fitch Ratings, VGR der Laender, Arbeitsagentur, destatis, State of Bremen Fitch has assessed Bremen’s risk profile at ‘Stronger’. This reflects a ‘Stronger’ assessment of its revenue robustness and adjustability, expenditure sustainability and adjustability, and of its liabilities and liquidity robustness, and liabilities and liquidity flexibility. State of Bremen – Risk Profile Assessment Liabilities & Liabilities & Revenue Revenue Expenditure Expenditure liquidity liquidity Risk profile robustness adjustability sustainability adjustability robustness flexibility Stronger Stronger Stronger Stronger Stronger Stronger Stronger Source: Fitch Ratings Rating Report │ 14 April 2020 fitchratings.com 2 Public Finance Local and Regional Governments Germany Revenue Structure Revenue Breakdown, 2018 Taxes Transfers received Fees, fines and other operating revenue Interest revenue Capital revenue Operating Total (EURm) revenue revenue 7,000 (%) (%) 6,000 PIT 18.9 5,000 VAT 18.2 4,000 Business tax 10.6 3,000 Other tax items 18.1 2,000 Transfers 34.1 1,000 Other 0.1 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Operating 100.0 95.9 revenue Source: Fitch Ratings, State of Bremen Financial revenue 1.2 Revenue Robustness: Stronger Capital revenue 2.9 The ‘Stronger’ assessment is driven by the high share of stable revenue sources due to a strong Source: Fitch Ratings, State of Bremen and diversified tax base and stable transfers from the Bund. We consider Bremen, in line with the other 15 Laender, to be resilient to any potential shocks, mitigating the risk of a shrinking revenue base. The Laender’s main revenue sources are corporate income tax (CIT), value added tax (VAT) and personal income tax (PIT). These are shared between the Bund, the Laender and – to a lesser extent – the municipalities. By law the Laender receive 50% of CIT and 42.5% of PIT. The shares of VAT result from a more complex allocation process and the shares vary marginally yoy. In 2018, the share was 46.6% for the Laender, 50.2% for the Bund and 3.2% for the municipalities. The common tax revenues accounted for 73.4% of the total tax collected in Germany in 2017. In 2018, tax revenue accounted for 65.8% of Bremen’s operating revenue, with PIT (18.9%), VAT (18.2%) and business tax (10.6%) the largest contributors.
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