ALERT STATUS: NORMAL FOOD SECURITY UPDATE WATCH January 2005 WARNING EMERGENCY

CONTENTS SUMMARY AND IMPLICATIONS Hazard overview ...... 2 The Zambeze basin valley has received abnormally high rainfall during the Rainfall performance and potential second dekad of January, which resulted in rapidly rising river levels, damage to implications ...... 2 lowland agricultural fields, and the inundation of houses near the river. According to the forecast models, heavy rains are expected to continue throughout the Market analysis ...... 4 basin, increasing the risk of floods. Contingency Plan ...... 5

In northern regions, above normal rainfall in mid December has caused road obstructions and damage to some precarious houses, but no flooding has occurred, and there are no reports of crop damage.

In the south, long dry spells are likely to have damaged crops already planted, forcing households to replant, which is possible now that the soils have regained moisture from the mid January rains; these rains are likely to continue throughout the end of the month. Elsewhere, moisture levels are adequate, and crops are progressing well. Monitoring the impacts of rainfall deficits as well as excessive rainfall remains critical.

Despite the hunger period, market dependent households continue to benefit from low and stable staple food prices. SEASONAL TIMELINE

CURRENT HAZARD SUMMARY • Flood risks are high along the Zambeze River, especially in flood plains of Caia and Marromeu districts, following heavy rains during the second dekad of January in the Zamabeze Basin and neighbouring countries. • In the south of the country, particularly southeastern Gaza and southern Inhambane provinces, rainfall levels between December 11 and January 20 have been very low, between 3 and 46 percent of normal. • Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected through January 31 in most of the country. • Crop conditions are good in areas of the country not affected by rainfall deficits. • Price stability prevails in major markets across the country, and prices are the lowest they have been in the last four years.

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Mozambique Food Security Update January 2005

FOOD SECURITY SITUATION During 2004 in the central and southern parts of the country, climate conditions, coupled with the effects of HIV/AIDS and poverty levels, were the primary cause of a deteriorating food security situation. Despite the current lean period, the level of food insecurity due to short term causes such as poor rainfall is stable or improving as result of several mitigation actions. These actions include food aid distribution and seed fairs among other targeted interventions. In addition, lower than average staple food prices enable households to access food through purchases.

However, high levels of level of chronic malnutrition prevail (41 percent nationally and stunting rates as high as 56 percent in Cabo Delgado Province), indicating the chronic vulnerability and poverty to which Mozambicans are exposed and the need for long term developmental plans to improve the livelihoods. CURRENT HAZARDS

Figure 1. Rainfall Anomalies Zambeze River at Flood Alert level January 11-20, 2005 The Zambeze basin valley (circled in Figure 1) has received abnormally high rainfall during the second dekad of January, which resulted in a rapid rising of the river. The Tete meteorological station (INAM) located in Tete city near the Zambeze River has recorded

MALAWI 129.6 mm during the second dekad of January against the normal value of 56.0 mm. The latest summary of the hydrological situation ZAMBIA from the Zambeze water authority (ARA-Zambeze) indicates that the water level in the river remains high, with a tendency to decrease. For MOZAMBIQUE example, in Caia hydrometric station, the water level on January 24 ZIMBABWE was 5.34 m and in the following day it dropped to 5.29 m. The flood alert level here is five meters. In Marromeu, near the river’s mouth, the measurements were 5.03 m on January 24 and 5.05 m on January 25, compared to the flood alert level of 4.75 m. In general, the water level of the lower Zambeze is said to be slowly subsiding. However, the inflow of water into the Cahora Bassa dam lake is substantial. According to the same summary, the average inflow in SOUTH 3 AFRICA the last 72 hours was 3500 m /s, hence the need to maintain the alert level. The swelling of the Zambeze River results from the heavy rainfall falling within the Zambeze basin itself, and significant amount of water coming from its two main tributaries, the Shire and the Revubué. Source: USGS/FEWS NET

Figure 1 shows the above average rainfall during the second dekad of January along the Zambeze River basin. However, during the same period, the south and the north of the country had received near average to below average rainfall.

Other basins of the country in the central region such as Save, Púngue and Búzi are relatively stable and below the alert level. According to the latest summary from the Central Water Authority (ARA-Centro) of January 25, the water levels of Púngue and Save show a tendency to rise, although they are still far from reaching the alert level. The Búzi River water level on the other hand has been subsiding. According to the district authorities affected by localized inundations, their monitoring of the situation is constrained by the lack of transport. So far, the National Institute of Disaster Management (INGC) has been unable to assess the real impact resulting from the heavy rains. Qualitatively, it is known that the recent heavy rains in the Zambeze Valley have already inundated some cultivated fields in the lowlands along the river and destroyed a number of precarious temporary houses built near the river during the farming season. Some villages in Marromeu districts have been inundated. Both ARA- Zambeze and ARA-Centro have repeated calls to residents of the central provinces to keep away from flood prone areas, especially in the districts of Mutarara in , Mopeia and Chinde in Zambezia Province, Marromeu, Caia and Chemba in and Tambara in . The prolonged heavy rains in the north and the northern part of Tete Province have already cut off some roads in Nampula and Tete provinces and destroyed some precariously built houses in Nampula. In Cabo Delgado, the authorities are also concerned about the access roads to the southern districts of the province. The cumulative rainfall in December 2004, measured at the Nampula weather station (INAM), was 386.1 mm against the normal value of 126.5 mm, and the Tete weather station (also from INAM) has measured a total of 247.4 mm against the normal value of 146.7 mm. The roads are cut when the small river beds, which normally remain dry during the dry season, are filled with water or when small bridges are damaged by water, or lost due to erosion, as was the case of the road between Tete city and Cahora

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Bassa District. In some villages on the outskirts of the capital city of Nampula, houses built from local materials were damaged. In some cases, houses collapsed as their adobe walls melted, and in other cases, the houses collapsed due to erosion caused by heavy rains. So far, two deaths have been confirmed.

Rainfall below normal in the southern provinces

There is growing concern over the three southern provinces of Maputo, Gaza and Inhambane. Figures 1 and 2 show clearly that in this region, the situation is becoming worrisome. The observed rainfall based on INAM ground station data has been well below normal. For instance, in the Xai-Xai meteorological station in , the observed value in the second dekad of December was 15.2 mm against the normal value of 41.4 mm. In the third dekad of December, the observed value was 0.4 mm against the normal value of 56.9 mm, and during the first dekad of January, Xai-Xai has recorded 10.8 mm against the normal value of 42.4 mm. In Inhambane, the meteorological station recorded 5.0 mm against the normal value of 42.0 mm during the second dekad of December. In the following dekad, a total of 13.0 mm was observed against the normal value of 47.2 mm, and during the first dekad of January, the station recorded 13.8 mm of rain against the normal amount of 38.0 mm.

Figure 2: Satellite rainfall estimates (a) 1-10 (b) 11-20 (c) 21-31 (d) 1-10 (e) 11-20 Legend: Dec 04 Dec 04 Dec 04 Jan 05 Jan 05

Source: USGS/FEWS NET

Figure 2(a) - December 1-10, 2004: During this period, the central region received a significant amount of rainfall. In the south, significant rains occurred only in , while the rest of the region had moderate rains. The INAM ground station of Inhambane has recorded 206.1 mm of rain, against the normal value of 34.7 mm. The northern region was characterized by moderate rains.

Figure 2(b) – December 11-20, 2004: During this period, rainfall started to decline in the south and intensify in the north. Heavy rains fell in parts of Niassa, Cabo Delgado and especially Nampula provinces, while in southeastern Gaza and Inhambane provinces, rains were relatively very low.

Figure 2(c) – December 21-31, 2004: Severe rainfall deficits persisted in the south, while in the north, rainfall levels increased significantly, and in the center, rainfall levels were mixed. Much of and northern Zambézia and Tete provinces received significant amounts of rain, in excess of 150 mm in the ten day period.

Figure 2(d) – January 1-10, 2005: January started with the continuation of the dry spell in south and declining rainfall in the center and north, except in , where rainfall intensified.

Figure 2 (e) – January 11-20, 2005: The Zambeze Valley has received alarmingly high and potentially destructive levels of rainfall. So far, the water level of the Zambeze River has reached and exceeded the alarm level at various locations along the river.

The figures above highlight the prolonged dry spell in much of the southern region from the second dekad of December through mid-January. Parts of Gaza and Inhambane provinces went more than 30 days with little, if any measurable rainfall.

Impact on agriculture (based on WRSI)

The potential impact of the heavy rainfall in the north and the inadequate and erratic rainfall in the south on food production and food security will be assessed in a report of the Early Warning Department of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, to be released soon.

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1 However, the Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI) for maize Figure 3: Water Requirement Satisfaction (Figure 3) indicates that soil moisture is adequate in much of the country, Index for Maize as of dekad 1 of January outside parts of southern Mozambique (circled), which has faced sub 2005 (1-10 January) optimal growing conditions so far this season. In central and northern parts of the country, the cropping season is progressing satisfactorily.

Close monitoring is recommended in the south, especially during the current critical period of the agricultural season.

Table 1 shows the list of districts that deserve special attention. These are the districts that have recorded average rainfall of less than 50 percent of normal during the period between December 11, 2004 and January 20, 2005. FEWS NET recommends that agricultural authorities and partners closely monitor the possible negative impacts of these deficits on agricultural performance and water reservoirs.

Table 1: List of districts in ascending order with percentage of rainfall less than 50 percent during the period between December 11, 2004 and January 20, 2005 – Data based on Satellite Estimates (RFE) Recorded Normal Percent of District Province (mm) (mm) Normal Homoine Inhambane 5 173 3% Maxixe Inhambane 5 163 3% Zavala Inhambane 6 137 4% Jangamo Inhambane 7 153 5% Morrumbene Inhambane 9 182 5% Source: USGS/FEWS NET Inharrime Inhambane 7 138 5% Panda Inhambane 8 148 5% Inhambane Inhambane 11 114 10% Mandlakazi Gaza 15 134 11% Xai-Xai Gaza 19 143 13% Bilene-Macia Gaza 23 141 16% Chibuto Gaza 23 134 17% Matutuine Maputo 21 111 19% Mabalane Gaza 30 126 24% Manhiça Maputo 33 135 24% Maputo Maputo 39 136 29% Guija Gaza 40 134 30% Massinga Inhambane 57 190 30% Matutuine Maputo 39 127 31% Boane Maputo 42 133 32% Marracuene Maputo 34 107 32% Chokwe Gaza 44 136 32% Namaacha Maputo 47 137 34% Chigubo Gaza 52 147 35% Massangena Gaza 54 149 36% Massingir Gaza 44 121 36% Vilankulo Inhambane 69 186 37% Moamba Maputo 55 135 41% Magude Maputo 57 134 43% Chicualacuala Gaza 48 108 44% Manica Manica 151 328 46% Source: USGS/FEWS NET

1 WRSI uses an analysis of season-to-date rainfall and temperature in relation to rainfall/temperatures required for optimum crop production given existing soil types, in order to provide an indication of how specific crops may be performing this season.

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Maize prices lowest in last four years Figure 4. Average monthly real retail maize prices, December 2004 Retail maize prices recorded in the markets monitored by the Agricultural Market 10000.00 Information System (SIMA) reveal that the Maputo Chimoio Nampula 9000.00 December 2004 prices are the lowest in the 8000.00 last four years. In fact, the graph in Figure 4 7000.00 shows that from 2001, maize prices have 6000.00 been progressively decreasing. Generally, prices in 2004 have been lower than 5000.00 average. From 2001 to 2004, prices have Mt/Kg 4000.00 dropped 41 percent in Maputo, 37 percent in 3000.00 Chimoio and 51 percent in Nampula. 2000.00 1000.00 Historically, prices in Chimoio, a central .00 market, have been lower than prices in 2001 2002 2003 2004 Maputo and Nampula, but in 2004, Nampula Year market has had the lowest prices. Source: SIMA The low prices in Nampula are a direct response to the maize supply from the household surpluses. The stability of the price of maize, the main staple food in Mozambique, benefits the food access of poor households in surplus areas and other areas.

2004/05 Contingency Plan Released

USD 24 million is needed

Recently, the Government of Mozambique (GoM) presented the 2004/05 Contingency Plan to the donor community, UN agencies and NGO’s as well as members of the civil service. A total of USD 24 million is needed to carry out disaster preparedness response in Mozambique. These activities will be undertaken by the agriculture, health, water and environment sectors, among others.

The number of people vulnerable to floods, Figure 5: Cost of disaster preparedness (in thousands of USD) cyclones, and drought from the previous season to date has declined, and thus the related cost, also influenced by several ongoing 35,000 Floods Drought Cyclones improvements in the early warning systems and 30,000 mitigation actions, has been reduced. 25,000 Despite significant improvements in the preparedness, two major recommendations 20,000 emerged: (1) improve the coordination among 15,000 stakeholders working in disaster risk management, and (2) reinforce community 10,000 disaster risk management capacity, including sensitization and education. 5,000

0 According to INGC, about 1220,000 people are 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 potentially vulnerable to or at risk of cyclones, (the cyclone season ends in April), while Source: Contingency Plan, INGC, 2005 approximately 717,000 people are vulnerable to floods and about 840,000 vulnerable to droughts.

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