COVER STORY STATE POLLS SAFFRON SETBACK

By INDERJIT BADHWAR

ST month's mini-general election had a strange, and you all the other parties unfairly ganging up against them. This could say, even transcendent quality to it. The polling vir- spoke volumes about the BJP'S position. For this was a party that E tually coincided with the anniversary of the December 6 had advocated "ganging up" against the Congress(I) in 1989 demolition and the concomitant deluge of violence. But a year when it allied with V.P. Singh and the Left. And then, after it later, in the political denouement to that fateful event, the began to gain steam on its own, it prided itself on its uniqueness iconography was neither bloody, nor vengeful nor charac- and isolation in which it stood out as the sole representative of terised by any ineluctable, jackbooted march of religious the Hindus against a hostile secular world. This note of self-pity bigotry. The prevailing images were those of serenity in which about what was once its splendid isolation also reflects the a quiet and peaceful political transformation took most acceptance of reality: that no party can continue to force politicians by surprise. divisive single-agenda issues down people's throats. The recurring metaphor for this election was "referen- What the electorate seeks is performance and an active dum"—the direct approval or disapproval by a majority of a participation in the power structure. V.P. Singh's Mandal plank limited issue. The term was used (id inflnitum by BJP leaders. Party and the BJP'S certainly found a place in the hearts of President L.K. Advani and millions of Indians. But push Kalvan Singh, the folk hero them beyond a certain point of the Babri Masjid demo- THE PARTY STANDINGS where they become socially lition, had repeatedly in- corrosive to the exclusion of toned that the people's ver- other issues and interest dict in the state polls would groups, and the pendulum vindicate the act. In flour- Total ^ V' ^* * IND. & begins to swing back ishes of electoral rhetoric, Seats Cong(I) BJP JD SP-BSP OTHERS against one-point agendas Kalvan Singh stated that if to broader-based ones. the BJP got even one seat less Uttar ,„* 28 177 27 176 14 Whatever the com- than the 221 it held in (46) (211) (91) (42) (14) bination of caste and local Pradesh—the cradle of the 22 issues, they worked this 200* (™ ^ ^ Sangh brotherhood's "cul- (11) time in their own way to tural nationalism"—it checkmate the Hindutva would be tantamount to Himachal ,R 52 8 0 8 millenarians who had rejection of the mandir Pradesh (9) (46) (11) (21 propagated the gospel that movement. The party got 70 14 49 4 their brand of cultural na- 44 fewer seats. Far short of 3 tionalism would steam- forming the Government. Elections were held for 422 seats in Uttar Pradesh and 199 seats roller all differences be- The pace, the tone, the in Rajasthan. Figures in brackets indicate previous party position. tween castes and regions. idiom and the reference In fact, there were certain point for these elections ": The Congress(I) won comfortably with 173 seats common elements that cut had been set by the BJP. across regional lines during Party leaders had exhorted audiences to decide whether the these elections which militated against the BJP'S calculations. In December 6 incident was an exhibition of "national shame" or the rural areas particularly, there was a noticeable swing away an act of "national pride", marking the beginning of the from extremism on account of three elements: a late-dawning "largest national movement" in history, as the BJP'S Ayodhya but increasing common-sense perception that Ram should not white paper put it. The poll was also to be the day of the people's be exploited for political purposes (the demolition of the mosque, judgement on the dismissal of the BJP'S four state govern- the wiping out of the "irritant" had already weakened the old ments. Aaj chaar pradesh, kal sara desh (Victory in four states appeal): a gradual fear that the violence that rocked Bombay was today, the rest of the country tomorrow), was the slogan. counterproductive to economic betterment and jobs: and the fear But national movements are not supposed to fizzle out in that communal rioting ultimately strengthens what the villagers whimpers of confusion and denials. For it was strange indeed despise the most: the local police forces. to see the party resile from its public postures. Having lost in And this time the Muslims did nothing to help the BJP. They Madhya Pradesh and Hirnachal Pradesh and faring badly in openly rejected the mullahs and the fatwas and made sure that Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan, BJP leaders denied that they had fundamentalist fortresses like Aligarh and Moradabad remained ever called the elections a referendum. Then in the strangest free of shows of Muslim communalism that irritate ordinary twist of all. their national leaders even attributed their losses to Hindus. They waited instead to strike, not through separatist

30 leaders, but through the system. And while in Rajasthan and justice" may claim, they are scarcely in the position oferecting Madhya Pradesh they reluctantly chose the Congress) I). in Uttar a national alternative to either the Congress(I) or the BJP. V.P. Pradesh they chose Mulayam Singh Yadav. Mulayam also Singh may take solace in his Mandal mantra but his party is in seemed to have learned that the art of winning elections is not a shambles. Its vote banks have deserted it. Its leaders are forcing issues as he did the last time but political sciagraphy: confused. Its chronic problem of infighting will hit the party knowing how to shade in the emerging political contours— this time more seriously, affecting its credibility. And the Hindutva receding. Congress(I) in decline, the disappearance of this third force from national politics could reduced to a Bihar regional party. lay the groundwork for a final confrontation at the Centre Politics abhors a vacuum. And you can't ignore numbers between the Congress(I) and the BJP. —with ZAFAR AGHA when they stare you right in the face. Among Uttar Pradesh's voters, for example. Harijans constitute about 21 per cent. Yadavs over 17 per cent, and Muslims nearly 19 per cent. CONGRESS(I) Together it's a winning combination. But numbers alone do not win elections. A leader has to enunciate a clear theme, and A Badly Needed Reprieve Mulayam's brand of anti-BjPism was evocative. Even though V.P. Singh in 1989 awakened the political tastebuds of the hough they did not say so, Congressmen were profoundly backwards through his Mandal and anti-corruption cocktail, relieved to discover that the party had performed much the full potential of the combine that ultimately benefited Tbetter than many of them had dared to hope. The BJP had Mulayam remained unused because V.P. Singh had played the managed to convey such an impression of strength that some role of OBC champion and the Harijans stayed mostly with the sections of the Congress(I) had been psychologically intimidated. Congress) I) and the Muslims divided their votes. Even the OBCs The final results exorcised that fear when desperately desired did not unify solidly behind V.P. Singh because the leadership of victories came in and Madhya Pradesh. the movement remained in the hands of upper caste Thakurs While in Rajasthan the Congress(I) could have done better if and Jats. In 1991. when Hindutva occupied the commanding it had not been beset by factionalism, Madhya Pradesh showed heights of politics, the Janata Dal was badly divided and the OBC that when leaders like Arjun Singh, Scindia, Kamal Nath and the and even Harijan voters shifted their allegiance from traditional Shuklas united to tackle the BJP in a determined fashion, it could bases to the BJP. win votes. Unfortunately for Rao. it showed that charismatic But this time it was different. In most elections, the Muslims look for protection. And in recent ones the Prime Minister Rao: finally, he has something to wave about Yadavs have been looking for real power, exercised not through a surrogate like Ajit Singh or V.P. Singh or traditional consensus politics but through one of their | S very own. like Laloo Prasad Yadav in Bihar. For the first time the Dalits, taking a cue from the Yadavs, began sensing the power that comes from having your own party rather than riding on the coat-tails of the Congress(I). and they swung towards Kanshi Ram. This |;>;f was a potent combination that the Muslims could ignore only at their peril if they wanted a Hindu alliance to defeat the BJP. And this time they did not break rank. The Kanshi Ram-Mulayam Singh brand of secu- larism has thrown up its own kind of polarisation which was reflected on polling day in Uttar Pradesh. Most of the urban centres in the state were divided on communal lines because Hindus tend to see Mulayam's party as a "Muslim" party while rural areas witnessed a caste divide on a large scale. And if the worst-case-scenario prophets of doom have their say. the upshot could again pave the way for growing communal tension in the cities and debili- tating caste extremism in the form of militant Yadav gangsterism in the rural areas. • Possible. But certainly, one of the cardinal lessons of these elections has been that whenever Indian politics swings to any extreme the pendulum always swings back and that be it Hindutva. Mandal. or promises of the21 st century, even the most casteist and communal equations break down in the face of a government's poor performance or rampant corruption. And in any case, the election verdict is a mixed bag for political parties. The Congress)I) showed the potential of reviving itself if charismatic leaders enunciate a clear and forceful line as they did in Madhya Pradesh. The party still remains a national force to be reckoned with as does the BJP. notwith- standing its setbacks. Whatever the forces of "social

DKfl-MBKR li. Wi * TODAY 31 COVER STORY STATE POLLS

state leaders bent on addressing fundamental issues could have ensured better results in the other states too. The party has two major problems on its hands. Firstly, the emergence of strong caste and communal politics has left little appeal for its centrist kind of politics. Secondly, there are still some disgruntled elements who would prefer to have a more dynamic leader than Rao. Union Minister of State P.R. Kumaramangalam fired the first salvo, demanding the resignation of the entire cwc. But this was before the Madhya Pradesh verdict was known. The results there came as a godsend for Narasimha Rao, vindicating his decision to dismiss the four BJP governments and demonstrating to his detrac- tors that, despite their anxieties about his vote-winning abilities, the party had put up a creditable show. Which was why Rao curtly told Kumaramangalam to resign. It makes Rao's position much more comfortable, although some will no doubt harp on the fact that he was a feeble vote-winner given how his public meetings flopped. One significant consequence is that Rao can now press ahead with his economic reforms. Commerce Minister Pranab Mukherjee said after the Madhya Pradesh victory: "It is an endorsement of our policies. The reforms process is now irreversible and we will pursue it with more zeal.'' Indeed, Rao can go to the polls in two years' time and tell voters that economic liberalisation has done wonders for the country and that he succeeded in keeping the BJP at bay. To revive the party further, Rao will have to pursue a more aggressively secu lar line to win over the Muslims. It Advani: why isn't the party line working? should not be too difficult as Muslims, despite their determined rebuff to the party in Uttar Pradesh, know that it is 1984 to 88 in 1989 and then 119 in 1991 using the Ram card, the still the only force at the national level that can combat the BJP. BJP saw no reason to scale down its Ram rhetoric in Uttar Those who had prophesied the Congress(I)'s total eclipse Pradesh, especially since these were the first elections after the will have to reconsider. Certainly, its support base in the north demolition. Though the leadership did try to diversify, one senior is shaky and its traditional votebanks are looking exceedingly RSS leader explained the failure by saying: "The BJP cannot dodgy, but it has shown itself to be a fighting force against a change tack so fast because it takes a long time for the RSS to formidable challenger and that it should never be underesti- recommend any change." This is why, despite instructions to mated. After all, it is not some political wannabe. It has a hawks like and Uma Bharati not to be too prodigious history, enormous financial resources and an rabid, the party still ended up harping on the old themes. impressive organisation behind it. It will be to Rao's advantage Yet, none of this worked as well as it had in the past. For one that he can say that the party under his leadership has been thing, non-Bjp parties confronted the BJP head-on over the spared the worst, enabling it to forge ahead with economic demolition issue. Joshi, for one, may now argue that the party reforms and showing the country that it has not lost its nerve should have pushed a more militant line but with A.B. Vajpayee vis-a-vis the BJP. And all this, he might add, without the benefit unlikely to endorse any anti-Advani move and Joshi still of charisma or oratory. —ZAFAR AGHA considered the most unpopular of the trio, Advani will probably have the final say in any policy changes. Ftis enemies within the BHARATIYA party, however, are already saying that only six months The BJP Charting a New Course after he took over as president the party has suffered a severe appears to OR L.K. Advani and the BJP, it is not only seats that have setback. Joshi will be joined by been lost in these elections but also a precious momen- others who will demand a have learnt Ftum. Not to mention loss of face. From the time of the BJP- return to militant Hinduism. sponsored bandh in February to the Janadesh yatras under- But these demands will be it cannot taken by four top leaders to mark the start of the election tempered by the knowledge campaign, it was intent on declaring that it was the only party that the relatively moderate continue as on the move. Perched on a self-proclaimed higher moral tone adopted by their leaders a single issue ground, the BJP warned that the four state elections were during this election was not merely a precursor of things to come and their victory would from desire but from necessity party and finally rob Rao of any excuse to continue in power. for it had become painfully Eventually, none of that came to pass. In Uttar Pradesh, the obvious from the Janadesh still hope to BJP registered just 33 per cent of the vote, a mere 2 per cent yatra that the Ram mantra increase over its 1991 figure and despite a record 55 per cent was failing to elicit the same grow. turnout this time. Having climbed from two seats in enthusiasm. It might have

32 INDIA TODAY » DECEMBER 15. 199! COVER STORY STATE POLLS

3HAWAN SINGH worked once but wouldn't for ever. Also, Hindu militancy might be harder to resuscitate in Uttar Pradesh given the SP- BSP alliance, although party leaders hope the alliance will crack up due to caste tensions between the Yadavs and Dalits. The BJP will be quick to chart a fresh strategy. It ap- pears to have learnt the lesson that the name of Ram will not keep conjuring up the votes it needs and that it cannot con- tinue as a single issue party if it hopes to make more headway. "From Ram mandir, we should turn to Ram Rajya based on concrete socio-eco- nomic policies," said K.N. Govindacharya, party general secretary. A pointer to its fu- ture stand is that it intends to adopt policies designed to win over the Dalits and backward castes even if it means diluting its previous opinions, fash- V.P. Singh: lying down and rolling with the punches ioned by upper caste Hindus. "A reverse in a couple of states does not worry us," said one after V.P. Singh's withdrawal from the campaign due to ill- national executive member. "But more and more backwards health coupled with the party's perennial insolvency, the and SCs whom we consider to be Hindus leaving the Hindutva Janata Dal campaign ran aground in the last crucial week. fold certainly does." Redressing this problem, along with The virtual rout in the crucial state has reduced the party to a emphasising the party's approval of Mandal and the promotion regional grouping. Deserted by its vote banks, bereft of of the social charter which the party announced last June, will organisational structure and blighted by a squabbling leadership, form the main part of its post-debacle "get in touch with the the Janata Dal has become something of an anachronism. "In people" campaign to be launched in December. All in all, the today's political environment, there is little justification for the lotus has undoubtedly shed a few petals. But it hasn't wilted Janata Dai's existence," says party leader Ramakrishna Hegde. yet. —YIJBARAJ GHIMIRE The Janata Dai's lacklustre performance elsewhere is an indicator of its future. In Rajasthan, it frittered away the Jat vote thanks to the infighting between Jat chieftains 0.P. Chau- JANATA DAL tala and Ajit Singh. And in Himachal Pradesh, where the Jan- ata Dal was never a strong force, the results confirmed its non- Swallowing a Bitter Pill existent position and the fact that the state has adopted a two- party system with the BJP and Congress(I) ruling alternately. OR the Janata Dal, the results from Uttar Pradesh have The Janata Dal hardly had a strategy. Even the euphoria been a draught of bitter irony. While the party had long over the pre-poll unity of the various factions evaporated as Fploughed a lonely furrow on its twin planks of social Devi Lai, Chautala and Yashwant Sinha deserted the fold. The justice and secularism, it is the SP-BSP combine that has reaped pro-Mandal lobby led by Laloo the benefits. The Janata Dal has had to countenance the loss of Yadav and its vote bank of Muslims, SCs/STs and the backwards to the Deserted by took a strident line, while alliance and finds itself reduced from its position as the main Hegde, George Fernandes and opposition—it won 91 seats in 1991—to a minor player, its vote banks pressed for a locked in battle with the Congress(I) to spare itself the more broad-based policy. humiliation of also-ran status. and reduced "We can't survive as a single In fact, of the four main parties in Uttar Pradesh, it was the issue party," said Fernandes. Janata Dal which garnered the smallest percentage of votes. It got to a mere There is every reason to a paltry 13 per cent, compared to the SP-BSP'S 3 3 per cent, the BJP'S suspect that leaders who came 33 and the Congress(I)'s 20. More galling yet, in the fight for the regional together only recently will go minority vote, while the alliance got 55 per cent and the Con- grouping, the their separate ways. Ajit Singh gress(I) 21 per cent, the Janata Dal was left with just 15 per cent. is already feeling uneasy with This, despite the Delhi Shahi Imam's fatwa in its favour. Janata Dal the polarisation between the The party's dismal fate was sealed when the BSP'S Kanshi SP-BSP alliance and the BJP on Ram took his SC-ST votes to Mulayam Singh. It did not take the is a spent caste and communal lines. Muslims long to realise that the duo would be the safest bet to "Most of my supporters have defeat the BJP. Moreover, the party did not have a leader of force today. gone to the BJP," he admits. Mulayam Singh's stature to project as chief minister. And While the party plans its

34 INDIA TODAY « DKCl-MHKK IS. IWi next move, the leaders still do not see eye to eye. Laloo Yadav Indeed, the outcome of these polls could not have come at a wants the party to support a BSP-SP government in Uttar Pradesh worse time for V.P. Singh. His health is failing and his party is to keep the BJP out, but Ajit Singh thinks otherwise—there's no in disarray. Within the Janata Dal, the forces and the love lost between him and Mulayam Singh. But the biggest individuals he nurtured have begun to turn their backs on question is about the leaders themselves. Ajit Singh's men have him. And here's the irony: having given his all to the OBCs. been humbled in his dens of Baghpat. Barnala and Sardana. In V.P. Singh now finds himself labelled an upper caste leader. 's citadel, Ballia, the party failed to win a single Scoffed a senior partyman: "You cannot talk of social justice seat. And V.P. Singh's hometown, Manda, went to the BSP. and be an upper caste leader." —JAVED M. ANSARI

THE STATES Surprise Outcomes

UTTAR PRADESH The Rise of Mulayam Singh F a week in politics is a long time, three weeks of campaign- ing is an eternity. Long enough to wipe out old forces and Iraise new ones. Mulayam Singh clearly realised very early on that the vacuum that would be left by the Congress(I) suffering yet another rout in Uttar Pradesh, the Janata Dal being wiped out and the BJP juggernaut slowing down, could be filled by another force—his party' s formidable alliance with Kanshi Ram's BSP. As the other parties tried to gather what remained of their dignity, Mulayam Singh was the only politician who was happy while political reputations and hopes crumbled all around him. It was the sheer scale of his victory that was so impressive. In 1991, the SP and the BSP had together won 42 seats. Last fortnight, the combine won 176, just one short of the BJP'S tally, demolishing the widespread prediction that the BJP would be the only party able to form a government. The SP-BSP combine made inroads into every region of the state in a total vindication of Mulayam's adamant (some said foolish (refusal to do a deal with V.P. Singh's Janata Dal and his confident (most said ludicrous) prediction that his alliance with Kanshi Ram would take them to victory, despite the herculean obstacles in their way. V.P. Singh had hoped that the 91 seats his party had won in Mulayam Singh: the dark horse gallops to victory the 1991 elections, combined with the 42 that Mulayam Singh represented, would provide a winning chance for the Janata Dal. vote only for his candidates and he reckoned that as long as he was "Nobody could have even touched us if Mulayam had joined us," effective in projecting himself as a viable alternative to the BJP, the said V.P. Singh wistfully after Muslims would not even look at the other parties. the results were announced. With this in mind, he undertook whirlwind tours of the Mulayam Singh had a very The BJP is state, paying special attention to Muslim areas, soon after he good reason for spurning V.P. joined hands with Kanshi Ram. The two represented a huge Singh's advances. He was wor- hoping that vote bank comprising around 1 crore Yadavs and 1.58 crore ried that if the two had fielded Hanjans. It didn't take long for the Muslims to realise that this joint candidates against the BJP, the Mulayam- was a winning combination which they could not afford to the sight of Muslims voting en ignore. So they voted for it en bloc. The turnout of Muslim bloc for them would have driven Kanshi Ram voters was 70 to 80 per cent, the highest ever in the state. the Hindus straight into the Among Harijans too, there was a real enthusiasm for voting arms of the BJP, as it had in 1991. combine will because they saw a definite chance of Kanshi Ram ending up This time, he did not want to break due to sharing power with Mulayam Singh. take any risks over communal This communal polarisation did, of course, give some- polarisation in that he wanted caste tensions thing of a boost to the BJP in the sense that a last-minute Hindu to avoid Hindu voters seeing backlash, particularly in urban areas, was an important any obvious ganging up of all between their component of the increased voter turnout that took place in the anti-Bjp parties outside the the state. It went up by 8 per cent from 49 per cent in 1991. polling booths. He preferred two groups. INDIA TOD AY'S detailed analysis of the increased turnout shows them to see Muslims lining up to that 2 per cent of it went in favour of the BJP. But COVER STORY STATE POLLS

backlash was not enough to give it the majority it needed. 80 small and big public meetings across the state. And against the paltry 2 per cent that the BJP got from the Another major limitation was his lack of oratorical extra turnout, Mulayam Singh and Kanshi Ram got nearly 6 virtuosity to match that of Advani's, Vajpayee's or for that per cent of it from the Muslims and Yadavs. matter 's histrionics. He decided, instead, to From the results of the 422 seats (three were counter- play to the gallery by raising populist local issues—the manded) made available by the Election Commission, the SP- promotion of sub-inspectors, permanent jobs for home BSP combine had gained across all five regions. The BJP, in guards, the repeal of the anti-cheating act against students contrast, made gains in only one region—western Uttar and the abolition of sales tax for traders, to name just a few. Pradesh. The major gains for the SP-BSP were in the One of his pet assurances was: "Main saari samasyaon ka hal previously Bjp-dominated eastern Uttar Pradesh where, it doonga par abhi topehledesh aurpradesh ko bachana hai" (I will won 34 seats, 18 more than in 1991. find solutions to all your problems but first we have to save this country and the state). This was his larger "secular" UMBERS apart, how did Mulayam the man and message,'that the true, moderate Hinduism had to be campaigner do it? A critical element was his salvaged from the ravages of the BJP. The message was far Nheadstart in presenting himself as a prospective more effective in rural India than in the towns. alternative to the BJP way before the election campaign And throughout, Mulayam hung on to Kanshi Ram as a started. He organised frenetic public meetings starting last prized possession even though the BSP chief was often a liability August. He was fully aware of his constraints. The main one during public functions. Kanshi Ram sounds like a man was obvious: for a one-man party to contest al!42 5 seats was possessed with a revanchist mission rather than a politician a daunting task. Equally difficult was to banish his image as out in the field.wooing voters. But Mulayam handled him with a cocky Hindu-baiter and un- utmost care and humoured him as abashed Muslim appeaser if he PARTY POSITION well whenever necessary. hoped to forge a Hindu-Muslim alli- Total seats 425 Now that the combine has made ance against the BJP. The second it, Mulayam can certainly look for- task was a psychological one and he ward to a bed of thorns. Kanshi handled it with ease by gradually Ram's increasingly vituperative ut- painting himself into a moderate terances against other castes and Sanatani Hindu, a devotee of their leaders—whom the combine Hanuman and Krishna and aiming needs badly if a coalition govern- barbs at Imam Bukhari and conser- ment is to work—is not going to help vative mullahs. Mulayam who sees healing as a The first task was one of logistics. major political mission. And He reserved three to four days a CONG(I) JANATA SP-BSP OTHERS Mulayam is also handicapped, as week for small public meetings in DAL are all one-man party leaders, by the moffusil areas which he knew he absence of any second line leader- would not be able to visit again once ship to share his load. the heat was on. He did not even For the Congress(I) and the have a second rung of leaders whom Janata Dal, the election was a he could depend on to carry his trauma. The brutal rejection they party's standard. By October end suffered at the hands of the voters Mulayam had completed more than outdid the surprises and jolts of

Total Seats 425* UTTAR PRADESH GAINS/LOSSES ^Elections held for 422 seats CENTRAL LIE ROHILKHAND Gain/Loss of seats 75 Seats 50 Seats over previous election Seats won Gain/ Seats won Gain/ in 1993 Loss in 1993 Loss Cong(I) 3 -16 Cong(I) 3 -1 Gonda ~"\ .Ayodhyu

BJP 31 +2 BJP 24 -9 Assamgarli ~ Janata Dal 4 -7 Janata Dal 4 -5 SP-BSP 37 +25 SP-BSP 16 +13

BUNDELKHAND WEST U.R EAST ILK U.R HILLS 21 Seats 101 Seats 159 Seats 19 Seats Seats won Gain/ Seats won Gain/ Seats won Gain/ Seats won Gain/ in 1993 Loss in 1993 Loss in 1993 Loss in 1993 Loss Cong(I) 2 2 Cong(I) 7 +4 Cong(I) 7 -6 Cong(I) 6 +3 BJP 7 4 BJP 56 +16 BJP 49 -34 BJP 10 -5 Janata Dal 2 +2 Janata Dal 12 -19 Janata Dal 5 -34 Janata Dal 0 -1 SP-BSP 10 +5 SP-BSP 25 +17 SP-BSP 87 +73 SP-BSP 1 +1

36 COVER STORY STATE POLLS

Mulayam Singh with his ally, Kanshi Ram: a masterful display of political acumen

1991. The Congress(I), which had hinged its hopes on the thought which claims that the BJP might try its hand at hectic 'Vikas Yatras' of its leaders as well as on Governor wooing Ajit Singh and some Independents in order to spring Motilal Vora, and had expected to improve its tally of47, has a surprise on Mulayam Singh that would match the shock drawn a big blank. Veteran Congressman N.D. Tiwari had quotient of the surprise he and Kanshi Ram sprang on anticipated winning nearly 100 seats as the campaign drew everyone. —DILIP AWASTHI with DEEPAK GIDWANI to a close. On a similar note, V.P. Singh thought that his party would be in full control of the eastern and western parts of the state from where the Janata Dal planned to RAJASTHAN collect more than 200 seats. "We dominate both sides of the map. Let the others fight for the rest," he had said. The Horse-trading Begins But even the worst losers could not deny Mulayam Singh and Kanshi Ram their moment of indisputable triumph. The T was the unkindest joke of all. Both the Congress(I) and the fact remains that they have a lot on their hands. As long as BJP polled the same number of votes in Raj asthan—about the Congress(I) or the Janata Dal give them support, they I38 per cent each. But by polling just 0.31 per cent more than can form the new govern- the Congress(I), the BJP managed to secure 95 of the 199 as- ment. It will open a new sembly seats for which elections were held. The Congress(I) got For the chapter of alliances in the 76 seats. Obviously, the large number of party rebels, Indepen- state. And horse-trading. dent candidates and other parties cut into its vote-bank. Muslims, The most likely scenario is The BJP is, however, disappointed at not securing a clear the SP-BSP combine forming majority. Said former chief minister Bhairon Singh the SP-BSP a government with the Shekhawat: "I had not expected the tally to be so low. We combined support of the lost some sure seats too." alliance was Congress(I) and Janata Dal. For the non-Bjp parties, the election results have a clear The BJP went through the message: they must get together if they want to defeat the a winning motions of staking its claim BJP, or the split in the anti-Bjp votes will result in the party combination to form a government in a continuing to win more seats despite getting fewer votes. bid to put on record the fact Given that this time round, the alliance between the BJP they could that despite being the single and the Janata Dal—which had seen them sweep to power largest party, it was not able in the 1990 Assembly elections—had disappeared, the ignore only at to form a government be- situation altered dramatically. Instead of a three-horse race, cause none of the other par- the tussle was between the BJP and the Congress(l) and both their own peril. ties agreed to support it. But seemed evenly poised at the start. The Congress(I), which there is one school of captured 33 per cent of the vote in the previous Assembly

DECEMBER 15. 149! » INDIA TODAY 41 COVER STORY + STATE POLLS

Bhairon Singh Shekhawat: he won but his former cabinet colleagues were decimated

elections, added five per cent more to its tally and gained 26 chief ministers, Hiralal Deopura and , lost. seats as a result, mainly at the expense of the Janata Dal. The Former home minister Digvijay Singh, who had defected from BJP too cut into the Janata Dai's votes and ended up with 10 the Congress(I) to the Janata Dal and then to the BJP and then more seats than its earlier tally of 85. But as compared to back to the Congress(I) just before the elections, was also voting patterns in the Assembly segments in the Lok Sabha defeated. elections in 1991, both parties suffered drops in their vote Oddly enough, even the relatives of the political heavy- percentages. The BJP lost two per cent and the Congress(I) weights ended up losing. The wives of two Union ministers— lost as much as six per cent. Abrar Ahmed's wife Yasmeen Abrar and 's wife Rama Pilot—lost. So did the sons of Buta Singh and Harideo HIS was probably a direct outcome of the presence of a large Joshi. Two of Balram Jakhar's nephews and a nephew of Jat number of rebels in the fray and a reflection of the large-scale strongman Nathuram Mirdha were also defeated. Tresentment over the ticket distribution in both the Compared to the 1990 assembly elections, when the Congress(I) and the BJP. The Congress(I) had a particularly Congress(I) had secured only 50 seats, the party recovered its disgruntled bunch on its hands after it gave 17 tickets to the position in the four major belts—Marwar, Mewar, Bikaner relatives of powerful state lead- and Shekhawati. Even though the BJP gained in Bikaner and ers. As a result, nearly 50 Con- maintained its traditional hold over Hadoti, it lost in Marwar, gressmen, including 17 former The message Mewar and Shekhawati. MLAs and six former ministers, The upshot of the election results is a hung assembly which has contested against official nomi- for the non- already led to a great deal of horse-trading. Both the BJP and the nees. Many of them won. Congress(I) are trying their best to woo their rebels and the What was surprising, BJP parties Independents who won. The 21 Independent MLAs are the most though, was the fate of some of sought after. They are being put up in luxury hotels and are being the political bosses. Shekhawat was that if they wined and dined. Many Congress(I) leaders, including Bhajan Lai, won the safe seat of Bali in whose name has become synonymous with moneybag politics, Pali district but lost in Ganga- want to keep have descended on to secure their support. Not to be out- nagar. Another victim was the the BJP out of done, the BJP has converted its state office, where the Independent glamorous MLAs supporting it have been put up, into a virtual fortress. Scindia, the BJP MP from power, they Shekhawat, a pastmaster in the art of political bartering, is learnt Jhalawar, who lost from to have split the Janata Dal, with two of its MLAs pledging their Dholpur. Most of Shekhawat's must unite support to him. Nor is the horse-trading likely to be over with the former cabinet colleagues also formation of the government because it will be headed by a party lost. The Congress(I) too suf- against it. with a wafer-thin majority, leaving it in danger of being toppled. fered a jolt when its two former An analysis of the voting pattern shows that the BJP got

42 INDIA TODAY » DECEMBER 15. 1993 more seats than the Congress(I) because of a division in the In fact, the BJP enjoyed a big advantage in Rajasthan secular votes. Although the BJP tried to rouse passions on the by having a leader of Shekhawat's stature. While the Cong- issue, it failed to work. In fact there were ress(I) leaders were involved in infighting, the BJP suc- hardly any issues in the polls, forcing the parties to resort to ceeded in putting up a joint front under the leadership of more mundane matters such as the image of the candidate, Shekhawat, who was projected as the next chief minister. The the development record and caste combinations. 70-year-old leader launched a whirlwind campaign in the state and was on the road for practically 18 hours every day, N terms of caste equations, the Congress(I) had a clear edge travelling to all the 200 constituencies. over the BJP because of the support of the powerful Jat voters In sharp contrast, the Congress(I) did not have a single Iwho play a dominant role in 40 constituencies. Besides, leader who could have campaigned all over the state. Both Governor Baliram Bhagat, who allegedly played a partisan role Harideo Joshi and Nathuram Mirdha suffered from health in favour of the Congress(I), tried his problems. While Joshi did not cam- best to muster the support of the OBCs, PARTY POSITION paign at all, Mirdha did, but his appeal SCs and STs by his politically-inclined Total seats 200 was limited to the Jat areas. Other decisions just before the polls. But the 95 leaders such as state Congress(I) chief BJP played the same card. While select- 85 Parasram Maderna and Rajesh Pilot ing party candidates, Shekhawat not also proved to be political pygmies. In a only kept in view the caste of the way, it was the party's failure to project candidate but also his sub-caste. As a a strong contender for chief minister- result, the caste factor did not help the ship that harmed its prospects. Congress(I) despite its high expecta- With the elections over, Shekhawat's tions on this account. charisma is likely to ensure that he Nor did issues such as develop- becomes the next chief minister, along ment and stability lure the voters. with the fact that he has a wide appeal Most of all, the Congress(I) failed to that can cut across ideological affili- highlight the failures of the dismissed ations, is not perceived as a fundamental- BJP government. Shekhawat, on the ist and is clear of the corruption taint other hand, launched a virulent cam- which affected the image of his BJP paign lambasting President's Rule in counterpart in Madhya Pradesh. The the state, asking people to return him other possible contender being Joshi, to power and undo the injustice of who is bed-ridden, Shekhawat should his sacking. have a smooth ride. Apart from the disadvantage of having to rely on men like Joshi, who could not move around very much, campaigning for it instead of real crowd-pullers, the Congress(I)'s electioneering was a thoroughly misman- aged affair. Maderna was too busy in his own constituency to look after organisational affairs. The BJP'S campaign, on the other hand, was extremely well organised. If the Congress(I) Seats won Gain/ lost it was not because the BJP was any better. It was because its in 1993 Loss leaders refused to close their ranks to face the BJP challenge. —N.K. SINGH

Total Seats 200* HIMACHAL PRADESH *Elections held for 199 seats Basic Issues Triumph BIKANER SHEKHAWATI 22 Seats 80 Seats* N the face of it, it was a "no wave" election in Himachal Pradesh. But the landslide victory of the Congress(I) in Seats won Gain/ Seats won Gain/ in 1993 Loss in 1993 Loss Othe elections to the state Assembly not only surpassed the expectations of the party itself, it also stunned the BJP and Cong(I) 8 +1 Cong(I) 34 +12 upset the electoral arithmetic of politicians and pollsters alike. BJP 10 +7 BJP 33 +5 Riding on what turned out to be a strong anti-Bjp undercur- Janata Dal 1 -9 Janata Dal 2 -22 rent, the Congress(I), despite having gone to the hustings as a Others 3 +1 Others 10 +4 faction-riddled party, romped home with a three-fourths majority in the 68-member Assembly. While in the 1990 MARWAR HADOTI elections its tally was a poor nine, this time it bagged 52 seats. 42 Seats 18 Seats More importantly, it has avenged its crushing defeat at the hands of the Bjp-Janata Dal alliance last time. Seats won Gain/ Seats won Gain/ in 1993 Loss in 1993 Loss The BJP'S bid to regain power was demolished and it could retain only eight seats, its lowest-ever tally in the state. This was Cong(I) 17 +8 Cong(I) 5 +3 just one more than the seven seats cornered by Congress(I) rebels BJP 19 0 BJP 12 -3 contesting as Independents. By all parameters, the poll outcome Janata Dal 0 -12 Janata Dal 0 -1 came as a severe indictment of the performance of the 33-month Others 6 +4 Others 1 +1 BJP rule in the state. Disenchantment with the

DECEMBRR 15. 1993 » INDIA TODAY 43 COVER STORY STATE POLLS

government translated into a vote for change. "We have been punished for certain perceived anti-people decisions," admit- OLD HIMACHAL HIMACHAL ted Shanta Kumar. The anti-Bjp sentiment turned out to be so 42 Seats strong that, barring one, all the members of the dismissed BJP Seats won Gain/ PRADESH ministry were defeated, mainly by Congress(I) lightweights. in 1993 Loss Cong(I) 34 +27 GAINS/ REDOMINANTLY, local bread-and-butter issues influ- BJP 2 -24 enced voting behaviour. The verdict was a cumulative LOSSES Total seats 68 Preaction to the unpopular decisions of the BJP govern- Janata Dal 0 -7 ment which had alienated two very influential sections in the Others 6 +4 state: government employees and apple-growers. Last year the ^V ^""~\} ^""2 government had crushed the employees' agitation and en- NEW HIMACHAL forced the 'no work, no pay' principle, causing resentment .26 Seats K A^ '>"->•, lahul&Spiti 2 among the 1.60 lakh employees. As nearly every household in L\a ^ Ku[u \ k Seats won Gain/ ^X-\ Hamijpur -1~s ) v /\/ Himachal Pradesh has one or more members in government in 1993 Loss service, the BJP'S stance cost it dearly. V^.. .}•( ;Man^H /CKinnaur J The BJP'S total rout in the old Himachal areas, a Cong(I) 18 +16 \j£Bi(a'$pur ^..y . , - "v \^ traditional Congress(I) bastion where the BJP had made BJP 6 -14 inroads in the 1990 election, was mainly due to the apple Janata Dal 0 -4 ^^STOUtJ? lobby's ire against the mishandling of the apple-growers' stir over the withdrawal of a subsidy by the BJP government. The Others 2 +2 \k£p failure of the BJP regime to fulfil its populist development programmes Rana Man Chand on his home turf also loaded the dice against it. PARTY POSITION of Sulah, dominated by the . Total seats 68 Clearly, the anti-establishment 52 The election results in Kangra sentiment vis-a-vis the BJP took pre- and the rest of the lower Himachal cedence over its poll planks. The BJP 1990 areas exploded the myth of the committed a tactical blunder by 1993 region being the stronghold of the fielding all its 48 MLAs in the dis- BJP. Apart from Kangra, the party solved assembly. Though the deci- faced major reverses in Bilaspur, sion was aimed at averting any Mandi, Solan, Sirmaur, Hamirpur dissidence, it recoiled by enforcing 11 and Una districts. Kangra proved a the anti-establishment factor. Even- bountiful hunting ground for the tually, only four of the 48 won. Congress(I) rebels. The victory of Noticing mid-campaign that the CONG(I) BJP JANATA OTHERS seven rebels, six of them aligned anti-establishment undercurrent DAL with , proved his was getting stronger, the BJP tried to Swing in Swing contention that potential winners divert the focus from local issues. But favour of against were kept out. there were no takers for the Ram Cong(I) BJP What, however, does not augur temple and Hindutva card that it well for the Congress(I) is the fac- whipped up. Atal Behari Vajpayee tionalism in the party which is likely went to the extent of seeking an to become intense as the rivals try to apology from the estranged sections. grab a bigger share of the cake. Nothing, however, worked. Neither could the party capitalise Already, Virbhadra Singh and Sukh Ram are locked in a on the Congress(I)'s 'weak* candidates—a result of the tussle battle for the coveted chief ministership. Yet, for now. the over party tickets between PCC(I) chief Virbhadra Singh and Congress(I) is euphoric and the BJP doesn't know where to Union Minister of State Sukh Ram. look. RAMESH VINAYAK The caste factor too went against the BJP, particularly in the Kangra region. The Shanta Kumar govern- MADHYA PRADESH Theanti-BJP ment's decision to challenge the Mandal report in the A Conclusive Change outcome of the Supreme Court pushed the backwards, the Scheduled I (ORMER Madhya Pradesh chief minister Kailash Joshi poll shows Castes and Scheduled Tribes may have won his Baghi seat by the skin of his teeth. towards the Congress(I). It F!Unfortunately for the BJP, some of its other leaders were that politics in was clear from the BJP man- not so lucky. While Joshi scraped through, beating his aging to score only two seats Congress(I) rival by a meagre 336 votes, at least 15 other the state has out of the 19 reserve constit- heavyweights from the BJP ended up losing at the hustings. uencies in the district while The BJP'S defeat in Madhya Pradesh is clear and conclu- reverted to in the '90 elections the BJP- sive. The party, which had come to power with 220 of the developmental Janata Dal alliance had 320 seats in the last elections, could get only 114 seats of the swept the region. A major 316 that went to the polls. The Congress(I), which won only issues. casualty of the caste factor 56 seats last time, has almost trebled its tally to 173. With was Shanta Kumar who lost elections for four other seats scheduled later, the Congress(I) to Congress(I) lightweight has already gained a comfortable majority of 15. This is not

44 COVER STORY STATE POLLS

to say that the BJP has been infighting. The distribution of tickets on a purely factional routed in the state. The fact basis led to considerable resentment within the party. The One reason that it lost by wafer-thin Congress(I) too could have done still better if its leaders had margins—in one case fewer been able to put up a united front over the distribution of fortheBJP's than 10 votes—is signifi- tickets. Shukla estimates the party lost about 30 to 40 seats cant. It was the runner up in just because of the distribution of tickets to undeserving defeat in as many as 101 seats. candidates. In , for instance, the chances of at Madhya A significant change in the least six official Congress(I) candidates were wrecked by state is the rise of a new star, rebel candidates. Pradesh was the BSP. From just two seats in The one advantage the Congress(I) had was the galaxy of 1990, it has increased its tally leaders—Arjun Singh, S.C. Shukla, V.C. Shukla, Madhav- the failure of to 12 and was the runner up in rao Scindia, Kamal Nath and Digvijay Singh. Apart, of seven other seats. Its area of course, from the fact that the disillusioned Madhya Pradesh its Hindutva influence is the Rewa and voter needed a change in government. —N.K. SINGH slogan, Gwalior divisions bordering Uttar Pradesh. After the Congress(I)'s DELHI impressive win, the logical next step was the battle for the chief ministership. As S.C. Shukla, one of the contenders, said: "It was easier to win the The Old Loyalties Languish elections; the real fight starts now." Although Digvijay HE Delhi Congress(I) chief H.K.L. Bhagat's cutting Singh and Kamal Nath are also in the race, their chances are comment on the verdict, "I'd like to congratulate the dim since both of them are unacceptable to Madhavrao TJanata Dal for ensuring a BJP win in Delhi", was really a Scindia. In fact, Scindia could be a strong contender himself grope for an excuse where there was none. In this war of because a desperate Arjun Singh may back him just to attrition, the Janata Dal, even if it happened to ensure the prevent his rival, S.C. Shukla, from coming back to power. Congress(I)'s defeat in 20 assembly constituencies, was The Singh group will be handicapped by the fact that the fighting to win. The record was set straight by Delhi Janata Congress(I) has not done very well in his area. Not only did it Dal chief Ram Vir Singh Bidhuri: "What happened in Uttar lose the Churhat seat, Singh's home turf, it also got only one Pradesh? The Congress(I) put up people who wouldn't win... out of seven seats in Rewa, two out of six seats in Satna and eating into our votes." three out of six seats in Sidhi. In sharp contrast, And as for the BJP—in its moment of triumph—there is little Chhattisgarh, where the Shukla brothers had a major say in need for reflection. Party leaders privately acknowledge that ticket distribution, returned about 60 per cent of the they did not expect such an overwhelming majority (49 seats candidates fielded by the Congress(I). This, and the fact that out of 70) even in their wildest dreams. Especially as Delhi, the Shuklas are close to Rao, may eventually tilt the balance which has traditionally been bitterly polarised between the in S.C. Shukla's favour. Congress(I) and the BJP, has witnessed many a direct fight with Now that the Madhya Pradesh voter has made his choice close victory margins. Usually, the trend in past elections has clear, the question is: why did the BJP lose in a state where it witnessed the BJP and the Congress(I) sharing the booty and had a fairly strong base? One reason for its defeat is that the getting around 40 per cent each of the votes polled. This time BJP kept harping on the Hindutva card which failed to cut round, though, the BJP has kept up its performance (40.6 per much ice with the voters in the state. Said Kailash Joshi: cent), the Congress(I) is down (33 per cent) and the Janata Dal "Our workers forgot everything else. They just shouted Jai (at 12 per cent) is taking its first steady steps in the capital. Shri Ram." The reaction of other BJP leaders to the party's In an issueless election, parties desperately depend on defeat is similar. Said Uma Bharati: "Everyone touches a traditional vote banks. The BJP, with its extraordinary priest's feet in a temple but when he stands in an election, his organisational skills, had its vote banks wrapped up. The security deposit gets forfeited." Punjabis and Bania traders had The only place where the BJP'S been mobilised and were well used Hindutva slogan had some impact PARTY POSITION to fill up ballot boxes. But the loyalty Total seats 70 was in the urban areas. The party of the Congress(I) vote banks— swept the polls in Indore, Bhopal, 49 Muslims, SCs-STs and jhuggi-jhopri Jabalpur and Raipur where the ur- dwellers—had to be tested, torn as ban middle classes, presumably up- 1993 they were between the Congress(I) per caste Hindus, were swayed by ELECTIONS and the Janata Dal. In almost 20 the line of "Hindutva in danger". constituencies, when the votes But even that did not work in Gwa- 14 polled for the Janata Dal and the lior, where the BJP faced a strong Congress(I) were taken together, challenge in Scindia. they far exceeded the BJP'S votes. Another reason for the BJP'S de- Another important factor this time feat, according to no less than for- CONG(I) BJP JANATA OTHERS was the Sikhs who, facing an assem- mer chief minister Sunderlal Patwa, •'-£ V- • '•'•-: - DAL • bly election for the first time since was the performance of his govern- the anti-Sikh riots of 1984, totally ment. Said dissident BJP leader V.K. supported the BJP. Sakhlecha: "The Patwa govern- But what irks most Congressmen ment's credibility was low and the is that Delhi's election was the only party has paid a price for it." one contradicting a national trend— The BJP also paid a price for its that of checkmating the saffron wave.

46 INDIA TODAY » DECEMBER 15. 1993 COVER STORY + STATE POLLS

A delighted Madan Lai Khurana: Delhi's new "guardian angel"

Polling around the largely urban and educated constituencies example is the Outer Delhi MP Sajjan Kumar, whose was high, hovering around 60 per cent. But there was a constituency is now being humiliatingly called a BJP difference. If earlier the jhuggi-jhopri dwellers and residents of stronghold. It is a semi-rural area dominated by Jats whose illegal colonies were mobilised in a big way on election day, this preference for the BJP has the Congress(I) in a tizzy. On time the huge sea of "middle class" voters swooped down on shaky ground too is Bhagat, whose East Delhi Lok Sabha the polling booths. All parties acknowledge this. And this constituency still seems to sport saffron after his 1991 section voted en bloc for the BJP whereas the attention of jhuggi defeat. Rebellion is brewing. Already rumours of luring voters lay divided in multi-cornered contests. The voters were him out with a seat seem to be doing the clearly trying to say something. rounds. And Congress(I) workers are demanding a new charismatic leader. UT what? As the chief minister-designate, Madan Lai So it's back to the drawing board for the Congress(I), Khurana, grinned from ear to ear and ran up a tidy sum with Jag Parvesh Chandra, former chief executive council- Bon celebratory kaju barfl, he came up with an answer: lor, summing up its position: "At best we can act like a "The frustrations...of water and electricity problems to a deaf responsible opposition.'' There is a lot of ominous introspec- bureaucracy...everybody identified this with the Centre." tion in the party about the wrong choice of candidates and The weariness of Delhi voters, tired of headaches ranging the ensuing rebellion. Questions are being asked about how from rising onion prices to the unsuccessful glamour brigade of Kiran Choudhury, the menace of Red Line buses, Anjali Rai and Usha Krishna Kumar had ever been given had to be channelised some- tickets in the first place. "We need a complete overhaul," The Janata Dal where. No matter how hard say party leaders. the Congress(I) tried, it As for the BJP, it plans to go ahead with the tone of bluster split the couldn't get away from being that is characteristic of its chief minister to be.' 'Delhi will not Congress(I) identified with the Centre and be ashamed of us," Khurana says. But what does that mean? these problems. It may have Political observers feel the BJP in Delhi would prefer the role vote in almost been a negative vote or per- of a reformist party pursuing practical programmes for the haps voters saw in the BJP a people rather than playing the communal card because 20 seats, reasonable alternative, what there is too much at stake. Yet, if the high command decides Khurana calls "a mai-baap". to continue its anti-Muslim line nationally, then Khurana handing the And if Khurana with his too will not be averse to doing his own bit of Muslim- gutsy performance has be- bashing. For example, by raising the question of Bangla- seats and Delhi come the mai-baap of Delhi, deshi refugees in Delhi. Whether he really addresses Delhi's to the BJP. many Congress(I) leaders problems or remains a figurehead in a weak assembly where find themselves unstable on the lieutenant-governor still holds most of the power their own turf. A classic remains to be seen. —VIJAY JUNG THAPA

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