Saffron Setback
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COVER STORY STATE POLLS SAFFRON SETBACK By INDERJIT BADHWAR ST month's mini-general election had a strange, and you all the other parties unfairly ganging up against them. This could say, even transcendent quality to it. The polling vir- spoke volumes about the BJP'S position. For this was a party that E tually coincided with the anniversary of the December 6 had advocated "ganging up" against the Congress(I) in 1989 demolition and the concomitant deluge of violence. But a year when it allied with V.P. Singh and the Left. And then, after it later, in the political denouement to that fateful event, the began to gain steam on its own, it prided itself on its uniqueness iconography was neither bloody, nor vengeful nor charac- and isolation in which it stood out as the sole representative of terised by any ineluctable, jackbooted march of religious the Hindus against a hostile secular world. This note of self-pity bigotry. The prevailing images were those of serenity in which about what was once its splendid isolation also reflects the a quiet and peaceful political transformation took most acceptance of reality: that no party can continue to force politicians by surprise. divisive single-agenda issues down people's throats. The recurring metaphor for this election was "referen- What the electorate seeks is performance and an active dum"—the direct approval or disapproval by a majority of a participation in the power structure. V.P. Singh's Mandal plank limited issue. The term was used (id inflnitum by BJP leaders. Party and the BJP'S Hindutva certainly found a place in the hearts of President L.K. Advani and millions of Indians. But push Kalvan Singh, the folk hero them beyond a certain point of the Babri Masjid demo- THE PARTY STANDINGS where they become socially lition, had repeatedly in- corrosive to the exclusion of toned that the people's ver- other issues and interest dict in the state polls would groups, and the pendulum vindicate the act. In flour- Total ^ V' ^* * IND. & begins to swing back ishes of electoral rhetoric, Seats Cong(I) BJP JD SP-BSP OTHERS against one-point agendas Kalvan Singh stated that if to broader-based ones. the BJP got even one seat less Uttar ,„* 28 177 27 176 14 Whatever the com- than the 221 it held in Uttar Pradesh (46) (211) (91) (42) (14) bination of caste and local Pradesh—the cradle of the 22 issues, they worked this Rajasthan 200* (™ ^ ^ Sangh brotherhood's "cul- (11) time in their own way to tural nationalism"—it checkmate the Hindutva would be tantamount to Himachal ,R 52 8 0 8 millenarians who had rejection of the mandir Pradesh (9) (46) (11) (21 propagated the gospel that movement. The party got Delhi 70 14 49 4 their brand of cultural na- 44 fewer seats. Far short of 3 tionalism would steam- forming the Government. Elections were held for 422 seats in Uttar Pradesh and 199 seats roller all differences be- The pace, the tone, the in Rajasthan. Figures in brackets indicate previous party position. tween castes and regions. idiom and the reference In fact, there were certain point for these elections "Madhya Pradesh: The Congress(I) won comfortably with 173 seats common elements that cut had been set by the BJP. across regional lines during Party leaders had exhorted audiences to decide whether the these elections which militated against the BJP'S calculations. In December 6 incident was an exhibition of "national shame" or the rural areas particularly, there was a noticeable swing away an act of "national pride", marking the beginning of the from extremism on account of three elements: a late-dawning "largest national movement" in history, as the BJP'S Ayodhya but increasing common-sense perception that Ram should not white paper put it. The poll was also to be the day of the people's be exploited for political purposes (the demolition of the mosque, judgement on the dismissal of the BJP'S four state govern- the wiping out of the "irritant" had already weakened the old ments. Aaj chaar pradesh, kal sara desh (Victory in four states appeal): a gradual fear that the violence that rocked Bombay was today, the rest of the country tomorrow), was the slogan. counterproductive to economic betterment and jobs: and the fear But national movements are not supposed to fizzle out in that communal rioting ultimately strengthens what the villagers whimpers of confusion and denials. For it was strange indeed despise the most: the local police forces. to see the party resile from its public postures. Having lost in And this time the Muslims did nothing to help the BJP. They Madhya Pradesh and Hirnachal Pradesh and faring badly in openly rejected the mullahs and the fatwas and made sure that Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan, BJP leaders denied that they had fundamentalist fortresses like Aligarh and Moradabad remained ever called the elections a referendum. Then in the strangest free of shows of Muslim communalism that irritate ordinary twist of all. their national leaders even attributed their losses to Hindus. They waited instead to strike, not through separatist 30 leaders, but through the system. And while in Rajasthan and justice" may claim, they are scarcely in the position oferecting Madhya Pradesh they reluctantly chose the Congress) I). in Uttar a national alternative to either the Congress(I) or the BJP. V.P. Pradesh they chose Mulayam Singh Yadav. Mulayam also Singh may take solace in his Mandal mantra but his party is in seemed to have learned that the art of winning elections is not a shambles. Its vote banks have deserted it. Its leaders are forcing issues as he did the last time but political sciagraphy: confused. Its chronic problem of infighting will hit the party knowing how to shade in the emerging political contours— this time more seriously, affecting its credibility. And the Hindutva receding. Congress(I) in decline, the Janata Dal disappearance of this third force from national politics could reduced to a Bihar regional party. lay the groundwork for a final confrontation at the Centre Politics abhors a vacuum. And you can't ignore numbers between the Congress(I) and the BJP. —with ZAFAR AGHA when they stare you right in the face. Among Uttar Pradesh's voters, for example. Harijans constitute about 21 per cent. Yadavs over 17 per cent, and Muslims nearly 19 per cent. CONGRESS(I) Together it's a winning combination. But numbers alone do not win elections. A leader has to enunciate a clear theme, and A Badly Needed Reprieve Mulayam's brand of anti-BjPism was evocative. Even though V.P. Singh in 1989 awakened the political tastebuds of the hough they did not say so, Congressmen were profoundly backwards through his Mandal and anti-corruption cocktail, relieved to discover that the party had performed much the full potential of the combine that ultimately benefited Tbetter than many of them had dared to hope. The BJP had Mulayam remained unused because V.P. Singh had played the managed to convey such an impression of strength that some role of OBC champion and the Harijans stayed mostly with the sections of the Congress(I) had been psychologically intimidated. Congress) I) and the Muslims divided their votes. Even the OBCs The final results exorcised that fear when desperately desired did not unify solidly behind V.P. Singh because the leadership of victories came in Himachal Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh. the movement remained in the hands of upper caste Thakurs While in Rajasthan the Congress(I) could have done better if and Jats. In 1991. when Hindutva occupied the commanding it had not been beset by factionalism, Madhya Pradesh showed heights of politics, the Janata Dal was badly divided and the OBC that when leaders like Arjun Singh, Scindia, Kamal Nath and the and even Harijan voters shifted their allegiance from traditional Shuklas united to tackle the BJP in a determined fashion, it could bases to the BJP. win votes. Unfortunately for Rao. it showed that charismatic But this time it was different. In most elections, the Muslims look for protection. And in recent ones the Prime Minister Rao: finally, he has something to wave about Yadavs have been looking for real power, exercised not through a surrogate like Ajit Singh or V.P. Singh or traditional consensus politics but through one of their | S very own. like Laloo Prasad Yadav in Bihar. For the first time the Dalits, taking a cue from the Yadavs, began sensing the power that comes from having your own party rather than riding on the coat-tails of the Congress(I). and they swung towards Kanshi Ram. This |;>;f was a potent combination that the Muslims could ignore only at their peril if they wanted a Hindu alliance to defeat the BJP. And this time they did not break rank. The Kanshi Ram-Mulayam Singh brand of secu- larism has thrown up its own kind of polarisation which was reflected on polling day in Uttar Pradesh. Most of the urban centres in the state were divided on communal lines because Hindus tend to see Mulayam's party as a "Muslim" party while rural areas witnessed a caste divide on a large scale. And if the worst-case-scenario prophets of doom have their say. the upshot could again pave the way for growing communal tension in the cities and debili- tating caste extremism in the form of militant Yadav gangsterism in the rural areas. • Possible. But certainly, one of the cardinal lessons of these elections has been that whenever Indian politics swings to any extreme the pendulum always swings back and that be it Hindutva.