THE UKRAINIAN JOURNAL

The enemy is fi ghting like a coward, vilely, pretending he has nothing to do with it. No one believes him now but that doesn’t stop him. Oleg Sentsov

PHOTO: MAKS LEVIN PHOTO: Learning from Ukraine Dear Reader, PHOTO: MAKS LEVIN The war in Donbass, Russia’s war against Ukraine that we know from television screens, is just part of the war that Russia has launched against all of us. After four years of Russian aggression, there is no point in reassuring yourself that there are no formal signs of war in our homeland. In this war, it is not tanks that play a major role. Even in Ukraine. The aggressor has long been among us. It is well-aware of our weaknesses in home and foreign policy. It engages in skilful contemporary and historical battles. It is deeply rooted in our economy, in large business, in the media and nonprofi t organizations where it fi nds loyal people who, in their own mercantile interests, are keen to serve it even better than those still active networks of Cold War agents. After the presidential elections in the United States and France, and last but not least in the Czech Republic, after the referendums in the United Kingdom and the Netherlands, the West must understand that the war is already on its streets. The erosion of democracy in Hungary, Poland, and the Czech Republic is no longer just a signal and poses a real problem for Europe. Belarus is already occupied by Russia although the occupation is hybrid, hidden. Ukraine already went through this and eventually faced armed aggression, full-on occupation, sabotage, cyberattacks, gas wars, as well as economic and political pressure. We should learn from Ukraine’s experience and understand that in its case, the destruction of the state preceded an armed offensive. Namely, a weakening of state institutions, fueling of internal and external confl icts, support for marginal radical movements and separatistic trends, economic pressure, and creation of an alternative reality through state controlled media. Hybrid war against the Ukrainian cultural code also extends to a deceptive ‘affi nity’ of cultural interests, manipulation with such words as ‘our own’ music, cinema, etc. Russia’s goal is a war of all against all. This way, when it weakens the state, Russia will reign in Europe. At least it has such plans. Our common task is to understand this and not let that happen.

Editors of The Ukrainian Journal

Learning from Ukraine The journal is issued with the support of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine and the Ministry of Culture of the Czech Republic. Special issue of The Ukrainian Journal in English In cooperation with The Centre for Global Studies Strategy XXI Editor: Lenka Víchová and the Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies. Translation: Rita Chubarova Circulation: 3000 copies Proofreading: Christine Thompson Photos: Piotr Andrusieczko, Vladyslav Musiienko, Published in Prague. The materials were sent to be printed Ivo Dokoupil, Maks Levin, Lenyara Abibulayeva, on 30th December 2017. The magazine is issued monthly. Anton Naumlyuk MKČR E 16026. ISSN 1802-5862 Publisher: Ruta, IČ: 26679779, e-mail: [email protected] síla slabých

PHOTO: IVO DOKOUPIL Russian perspectives on the future MYKHAILO HONCHAR

One of Russia's main goals is the ‘Russia is much stronger, and the Sergey Karaganov, one of the leading destruction of the transatlantic part- West is much weaker than many can Russian political experts and archi- nership and solidarity system, thus imagine. ... Our country is retrieving its tects of Putin’s contemporary policy. repositioning Europe towards Eurasia place in the world. Compare the clumsy Two and a half years after Russia to create a so-called common security and expensive Soviet armed forces started the hybrid war, in an interview and trade area from Lisbon to Vladivos- with the mobile and fl exible armed with Der Spiegel magazine, Karaganov tok, from St. Petersburg to Colombo. forces of modern Russia’, explains clearly stated: ‘... we want the status

4 of a great nation. Unfortunately, we to the above-mentioned approaches, to take over the traditionally Russian cannot abandon this goal: for the past Russia is the object of Western ag- market of nuclear fuel thus via impos- 300 years this status has become gression. The West exerts expansion ing an obligatory diversifi cation of sup- part of our genome. We want to be- and aggression, not Russia. Russia pliers upon the EU. Russia considers come the center of a great Eurasia, an is only defending itself. Accordingly, ‘if competition, which is the basis of the area of peace and cooperation. This intellectual, economic and military mo- market economy, to be a way in which Eurasia will also include a European bilization is conducted in Russia, there the West conducts war against Russia. subcontinent’. is no chance to lose in the confl icts Therefore, Russia will act preventively “The analysis of long cycles of eco- of 2015-2018, because the United and aggressively. nomic and political dynamics shows States and their satellites will not be The energy context of Russian poli- that the most probable period of ma- ready for open aggression’. The Krem- tics should not be underestimated. jor regional military confl ict with U. S. lin’s logic dictates that offense is the Glaziev’s statement is not just his and its satellite‘s participation against best defense. According to Glazyev’s opinion, but the refl ection of a certain Russia, could be in 2015-2018’, be- logic, the United States supplies gas Kremlin position. lieves Sergey Glazyev, one of the mas- to Europe because it wants to replace As a result of the shale gas revolu- terminds of Putin’s policy. According Russian gas with its own, as well as tion in the United States which Russia

5 LEARNING FROM UKRAINE

PHOTO: IVO DOKOUPIL

considered a temporary phenomenon alternatives on Europe, in particular of opportunity while U.S. President and an inevitably bursting ‘gas bubble’ North Stream 2, and to neutralize non- Barack Obama, and Washington are to be ignored, the U.S. has not only Russian options for gas supplies to overwhelmed with Iraq, Afghanistan, become self-suffi cient in gas, but has the EU. Thus, polyhybression becomes Syria. In 2013, one Russian think tank subsequently turned into its exporter. necessary - subversive actions by the specializing in the U.S. and Canada In other words, the U.S. became Rus- Russian Federation in those regions prepared a secret report for the Krem- sia’s rival, which Moscow did not expect from which gas can fl ow to Europe, lin. Its idea: the U.S. foreign policy dur- under any conditions. The Gazprom and which play an important transit ing the presidency of Barack Obama scenarios, on the contrary, predicted role in promising gas streams. Russia is weaker than ever before. It is likely that the U.S. would become an importer will be able to act preventively. that the next president of the United of Russian gas. In the mid-2000s, dur- The beginning of the hybrid war was States will be on a par with Ronald ing the trend of increasing oil and gas unnoticeable. It became visible only Reagan and would make the country prices, Gazprom expected to export 54 after bringing the military component a global actor again. Taking into ac- billion cubic meters of Russian LNG to into action in either an explicit, or dis- count the U.S. and Europe’s problems, the United States by 2015. guised form. All this indicates that the NATO will prove to be an impotent Unlike Turkmenistan gas, which Kremlin is ready for a new, wider wave instrument of the West. Therefore, Russia managed to prevent from get- of geopolitical expansion, based on Russia has a unique chance to take ting into Europe, and gas from Iran, Russia’s power (including the military) advantage of the weakness of the which is successfully blocked by Rus- and the weakness of the West. Actu- United States, the EU and NATO. sia in Armenia and Syria, it does not ally, for the fi rst time this expansion Russia had been preparing and con- seem possible to fence off American was tested in August, 2008 during the tinues to prepare, for a confrontation gas. Therefore, Russia is working on 5-day war against Georgia. In 2014, with the West, in a word, ‘heedless’ options for countering American gas tests continued. It was determined and thus incapable of effi cient de- expansion and is trying to impose its that Russia has a unique window terrence and neutralization policies

6 Worldwide, the number of countries growsthat perceive the following events as interconnected components of dangerous implementation of the new global policy by Putin’s regime: Russian aggression against Georgia, de facto annexation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, establishing an enclave in Transnistria that is also controlled by the armed forces of the Russian Federation, occupation and annexation of Crimea, an attempt to separate from Ukraine its Southern and Eastern regions according to the Crimean script (Novorossia project), the Russian meddling in the Syrian confl ict and democratic processes of the developed countries. However,there are countries where a track towards “normalization” of relations with Russia has emerged, in particular at the expense of recognizing the annexation of Crimea de facto and even de jure. Based on its dramatic experience, Ukraine can be an example that Putin’s regime seeks a global revenge for the historic failure of the Soviet empire. That he plots his own Anti- toward violators of international law, which have manifested in both Syrian Western world with alternative basic values. In and Ukrainian issues. The Syrian bat- this capacity the modern Russia has become, tlefi eld is a logical continuation of the ‘cold’ European battlefi eld of Moscow, along with such entities as ISIS, a new global where the information war dominates, threat in the 21st century. as well as the ‘hot’ Ukrainian front. All this fi ts into the EU multi-crisis Putin’s Russia has emerged as a global leader scenario and hybrid warfare technol- of scientifi c research and practical application ogy, where the military component is absent from the initial stage. of the principles of the modern hybrid or Russia’s multi-frontal war against diffused warfare. the West will not bring it victory, just as the energy resources that Russia Bohdan Yaremenko, Tetyana Guchakova, Andrii has have not made this country rich Klymenko, and prosperous. However, Russia will stubbornly move towards the goal of Olga Korbut, Yurii Smelyanski global geopolitical revenge until it is stopped in Ukraine, Syria and within the EU or until the international com- munity creates a Russia-specifi c sce- nario of ‘plurality of crises’ through non-military means.

7 LEARNING FROM UKRAINE

Learning from Ukraine

GLEN GRANT

Putin must destroy Ukraine as it exists now. To leave it intact is to destroy himself and his ambitions. He must win because of his war crimes: the mass graves, the torture in Donbas and Crimea, and the MH17 shootdown. All will put him fi rmly into The Hague as a war criminal. He must win because Ukraine is fl ourishing as a nation and it shows him as a failure. He must win because the truth will destroy him and Russia.

Putin must invade or subdue the military weaknesses of countries Ukraine. He is not yet ready, but the like Bulgaria. evidence of his preparation is stark. But hope, sadly, is not a valid He continues to reinforce, fi ght and military doctrine. Putin also tries to kill in the Donbas. He continues to test break up the West further as a politi- new equipment, people and methods cal grouping, reducing the chances of in Syria. He reinforces Crimea. He rein- political support and reinforcement forces Kaliningrad to block Western re- when he does act. He is having suc- inforcement. He stockpiles equipment cess in this. in Belarus. He continues to reequip The current thinking of national the army, especially with tanks and leadership, shown by word and action, modern technological systems. All this is that the “war is in the Donbas and is far beyond any peacetime needs. He will only ever be in the Donbas”. This is spends precious national money on the most dangerous political and mili- the military he needs elsewhere. He tary problem for Ukraine. Putin wants continues to train for a strategic war and needs it to be like this. Europe and in the west – which means Ukraine the United States want and need this. cannot escape this and will be a prime Putin is quite happy to waste Ukrainian target. The Russian MOD says openly human capital in the Donbas on both in the media that they need three sides whilst he prepares his forces for more years to reequip the army in a bigger game. The recent exercise of western Russia with tanks and to train aircraft landing on main roads in Rus- troops. This time must not be wasted sia shows a level of seriousness few all Russia is moving faster and gaining by Ukraine. NATO countries match. a strategic advantage. What is Putin doing now strategi- The separatists are just cannon For soldiers to be forced to stay cally with Ukraine? Firstly, he has fodder. Their task is to be “buyers of in one defensive position like Minsk tied the Ukrainian army down, and is time” whilst Russia prepares. They demands is always militarily wrong, slowly bleeding it of morale and am- are also part of the Russian strata- because it gives the enemy the stra- munition. He wants to breed a feeling gem. Ukraine’s senior military act as if tegic advantage. Russia is taking of helplessness. He is playing political they believe they are winning because advantage of this fact daily. Losing games with the West around Minsk they are fi xated on their successes in the strategic advantage is the great- and peacekeepers that blinds other this very limited tactical war. They and est failure of any national or military nations to the real game. Other coun- the Defense Ministry are missing the leadership (read any military strate- tries probably do understand, but they point, because they are not prepar- gist – they all say the same – to hold a are too frightened of the political and ing fast enough for a strategic and fi xed defense is to break time-honored fi nancial consequences of rearming. operational war that would likely be military rules). The United States, Poland and the Bal- outside the Donbas and would give no Russia can identify where the troops tic states alone are taking this threat time to mobilize large reserve forces. are weak and go through or around. seriously. The rest wait and hope it will The country is losing the bigger game Ukraine’s military position in the Don- all go away. Even NATO is only half-en- because of this, and whilst becoming bas is at a critical risk of encirclement, gaged as it fails to politically address stronger tactically at static war, over- which is a common Russian strategic

8 PHOTO: WLADYSLAW MUSIIENKO

act. Russian troops practice this tactic with operational and strategic ability. current military posture is to risk cer- regularly during exercises. Trench war- Operational ability is the ability to tain defeat if the battle becomes mo- fare also breeds an entrenched men- deliver force anywhere and win bat- bile – which it likely will. There must be tality among soldiers and staff, which tles. Ukraine does not yet have this strategic, operational and structural is against all rules of war if you want to ability. Strategic ability is having a changes to the army. win. There may be no alternative po- clear national goal and then creat- The army is very good at what it litically to accepting Minsk, but it must ing the means to conduct operations does now. But it has not practiced be seen for what it is; a stratagem to where they are needed to achieve that changing to another style of warfare, keep the Ukraine army tied down and goal. Ukraine’s government does not as U.S. forces are doing now. This is focused on one point. Russia is suc- have this thinking logic, either nation- because there is no doctrine, equip- ceeding all too well in this. ally or within the Defense Ministry and ping and training for doing this. The The Ukrainian Army gets better eve- the staff. The military cannot do active vision of a mobile army is lacking at ry day, but overall it is not one of the operations at the operational level be- all levels. The army is weak in terms best in Europe because it has some cause they are not structured for this, of quality of senior commanders and critical organizational fl aws. Giving and they are certainly not practicing it. headquarters staff and critically weak the army Javelin anti-tank missiles will However, today Russia is practicing in communications, logistics and not remove those fl aws, and may even mobile battalion group operations medical. They would struggle if there make them worse. People are confus- hard. For Ukraine’s forces to stay as were two or more fronts to support. ing amazing bravery and minor tactics they are physically and mentally in the

9 LEARNING FROM UKRAINE

PHOTO: WLADYSLAW MUSIIENKO

Hybrid occupation of Belarus

MYKHAILO SAMUS Belarus is under full military, economic, informational, and energy control. Its political leadership can be eliminated by Russian generals as soon as the need arises. The transformation of Belarus into a territory where Russia can implement its military and strategic goals, poses a direct threat to Ukraine and other nations.

10 instrument for de-escalating confl ict, and the primary reason why Western politicians would agree to negotia- tions with Moscow had, in fact, these weapons been used. Of course, the modern Kremlin leader’s understand- ing of “escalation-de-escalation of the confl ict”, in fact, bears a strong resem- blance to the Politburo approaches of the former USSR’s Communist Party Central Committee. They sincerely be- lieve that nuclear weapons (especially tactical) can stop confl ict and force the enemy to enter into peace talks. The Zapad-1999 exercise became the fi rst strategic maneuvers in the Western Direction staged after the collapse of the USSR. The Armed Forces of Belarus participated in the drill under the umbrella of united troops from the Union State of Russia and Belarus. These maneuvers were generally less ambitious than their Soviet counterparts from the point of view of moving toward the West. Their goal was to develop strategic opera- tions for preventing NATO expansion to the East in the background of the fi rst wave of Alliance enlargement (Po- land, the Czech Republic, Hungary). As a result of a signifi cant decline in the combat capability of the Russian Armed Forces, the Kremlin declared a fundamental change in the role of nuclear weapons. Now, if conventional means failed to achieve a strategic advantage, Russia would agree to use tactical nuclear weapons. The Kremlin relied specifi cally on its nu- clear weapons as a means of confl ict de-escalation with NATO and complet- ing its tasks for a strategic operation. In 2013, Zapad maneuvers became the latest test before the onset of ag- gression against Ukraine. Predictably, the operational structure of Russian and Belarusian Armed Forces during Zapad-2013 resembled the structure of the Russian army at the time of the aggression against Ukraine in 2014. In these exercises, among other things, the Russian generals examined the operational level integration of the The process of hybrid occupation The Zapad (meaning West) mili- Belarusian Armed Forces as well and complete surrender of Belarus tary maneuvers started in 1977 as as the Western Military District of has already begun. The arrest of a strategic exercise for coalition Russian Federation Armed Forces a Ukrainian journalist on the count of troops (initially the USSR and War- without any involvement of Belaru- ‘espionage’, Lukashenka’s refusal to saw Pact countries, later the Union sian command at strategic levels. go to the Eastern Partnership sum- State of Russia and Belarus), during Interestingly, the Russian General mit and regular statements by the which they practiced innovative ap- Staff Main Intelligence Directorate KGB, which accuse Ukraine of ‘hostile proaches to strategic operations in perfected the organization and use of actions’ against Belarus, all testify the Western Direction and the use ‘terrorist’ and ‘illegal armed groups’, that the next phase of the hybrid war of tactical nuclear weapons on the while Russian special forces brigades against Minsk and Kyiv is well under- European battleground. Soviet strate- honed their ‘separatist’ action tactics way. gists considered nuclear weapons an to achieve the operation objectives. In

11 LEARNING FROM UKRAINE

fact, throughout the course of Zapad- larus’ Armed Forces, reinforced with offensive operation against NATO was 2013 irregular guerrilla tactics were intelligence, special operations forces, rehearsed. In particular, according to practiced, which were later applied in missile units, and Russian airpower, the Russian command’s offi cial plan, Ukraine in 2014. were the fi rst echelon of the joint Russia should, as a result of offen- After the war against Ukraine force, while Russian Armed Forces’ sive actions, achieve the neutrality began, Russia decided to stop their Western Military District troops were of the Baltic States and prevent the pretenses and complete the incor- the second echelon. deployment of NATO troops to their poration of the Belarusian army During the Zapad-2017 exercise, territory; ‘return historically Russian into the Russian Armed Forces. In units from the Republic of Belarus’ territories’ of Latvia and Estonia; this regard, the Shield of the Union- Armed Forces were assessed in create a transport corridor to the 2015 exercise was decisive; it was regards to compliance with Russian Kaliningrad enclave. To this end, Rus- intended to improve the conclusive army standards to ensure better sia would occupy Estonia, Lithuania, subordination of the Belarus military compatibility in joint operations. The Latvia, pass through the Suwalki gap, to Russian command. The perfect Belarusian army units trained for the and conduct offensive actions in the description of the Kremlin’s idea fi rst time as part of a battalion-sized direction of Warsaw. In case of an was delivered in a speech by the active counter-offensive by NATO (in- commander of the Western Military cluding attempts to liberate the Baltic District, Anatoly Sidorov, on the re- States through Kaliningrad), the sults of the exercise. In particular, planned exercises provided for the he stressed that one of the features The next step of use of tactical nuclear weapons that of the Union Shield-2015 was the re- the Kremlin in the should ‘de-escalate’ the confl ict and subordination of the Armed Forces of make NATO sit down at the negotiat- another state (obviously, the Armed Belarusian direction ing table on Moscow’s terms. Actual Forces of the Republic of Belarus) will be forcing the launches of intercontinental ballis- and their command in joint training tic missiles from strategic missile and combat missions. ‘An evaluation political leadership of submarines and tactical launches of the authorities’ activities during Belarus to capitulate of semi-strategic Iskander missiles, the training, proved the feasibility of testify to the credibility of the Russian including regional groups of troops completely, including generals’ plans. from the Republic of Belarus and the the announcement of According to the results of Zapad Russian Federation into a group of -2017, deployment of groups of region- troops for strategic Western Direc- an offi cial agreement al Union State troops as part of exist- tion, Sidorov said. on the deployment ing Russian Army strategic Western Thus, the Russian general had Direction troops was practiced within openly stated that the Belarusian of Russian military the scope of the strategic operation army had conformed to the Russian bases in Belarusian against NATO. command during the exercises, and In this regard, the next step of the all the groups of the Union State territory. Kremlin in the Belarusian direction would become part of the strategic will be forcing the political leadership Western Direction which is directly of Belarus to capitulate completely, overseen by Russian Federation including the announcement of an of- Armed Forces General Staff. Mean- task force based on Russian army fi cial agreement on the deployment of while, any ‘national fi lters’, such as experience gained in wars against Russian military bases in Belarusian the president of Belarus, the Minister Ukraine and in Syria. This confi rms territory. After all, according to the of Defense or the General Staff of the the assumption that steps have been results of Zapad-2017, the General Belarus Armed Forces, were removed made towards complete integration, Staff of the Russian Armed Forces from the command and control sys- including the tactical level of Russian may declare that the exercise dem- tem. Essentially, it would make sense and Belarusian army units. onstrated the lack of strategic Bela- – in a modern war, that a unit should During Zapad-2017 deployment rusian reserves suffi cient to conduct receive decisions from its commander of Russian troops to Belarus was an operation against NATO, taking into within a few seconds and therefore, practiced; in particular to areas in the account the strengthening of the Alli- inclusion of Belarusian politicians or direction of Poland (Warsaw) and the ance’s troops in Poland and the Baltic military would only interfere with this Suwalki gap and according to offen- States. The main intrigue of relations system. sive scenarios in three main directions between the two ‘allies’ in the near The main goal of Zapad-2017 - the Baltic States, Warsaw, and the future will be how quickly and on what maneuvers was to practice the opera- Suwalki gap. conditions, the ‘surrender’ of the Bela- tion in the strategic Western Direction The Russian command conducted rusian leadership will occur. with a group of said Union State troops practical exercises on how to use according to a unifi ed plan, and under both strategic and tactical nuclear a single command. This was carried weapons. out by the Russian Armed Forces The offi cial scenario of the exercis- General Staff, taking into account the es (with incorporation of artifi cial ter- creation of the Russian Federation ritorial entities such as Veyshnoria) Armed Forces 1st Guards Tank Army. had nothing to do with the real Zapad In the meantime, the Republic of Be- -2017 plan, during which a strategic

12 The militarization of Crimea

BOHDAN YAREMENKO, TETYANA GUCHAKOVA, ANDRII KLYMENKO, OLGA KORBUT, YURII SMELYANSKI

During the fi rst year – year and a half after the occupation of Crimea, Russia hoped for and accomplished certain steps towards investment-driven development of the peninsula, in particular in tourism.

However, already by mid-2015, the «Reverse» structural of Crimea was set up and is being Russian government began to under- developed. stand futility of the initially ambitious reorganization of Crimean • New garrison towns, residences plans of the economic development economy for the military, and infrastructure in Crimea. It was a direct result of are built and the old facilities are international sanctions andeconomic • As a matter of priority, efforts were reconstructed to ensure dislocation blockade of Crimea by mainland launched to restore enterprises and of new military units. Ukraine. facilities of the military-industrial • Number of the military and various In 2016 the Russian Federation complex that still remained from secret services personnel increases. ultimately abandoned plans to create the USSR. • As a result of target military orders, “a new storefront of Russia” in Crimea. • Russian joint force grouping on the enterprises of military industry (mili- On 28th of July 2016 it downgraded peninsulahas been rapidly created. tary machinery manufacturing, ship theoccupied Crimea and Sevastopol. It is thelargest in Europe and contin- building and repairing) renewed So-called“constituent territories of the ues to grow. their operations above all else. Federation”, the Republic of Crimea • Since the fi rst days of the These facilities are merged with and Sevastopol are now a part of the occupation,only the newest military respective state conglomerates of Southern Federal District with Rostov- equipment and armament are sent the Russian Federation. on-Don as an administrative centre. to Crimea on a priority basis. • All other spheres of life in Crimea Besides, political and administra- • All existing and numerous military – economy, social aspects, human tive government was merged with airports that date back to the rights, information space, and na- the military one, because from the USSR, soft-site launchers, aerial tional politics –comply withideology very beginning all units of the Russian defence facilities, Soviet nuclear of the military beachhead. armed forces in Crimea belonged to weapon storages are being recon- More likely, nuclear warheads for the Southern Military District with structed. naval and coastal missile systems are headquarters in Rostov-on-Don. • New reinforced region in the north already in Crimea.

PHOTO: PIOTR ANDRUSIECZKO

13 LEARNING FROM UKRAINE

War in Syria and changes These practices continue in 2017 Bulgaria, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbai- as well. jan, Greece including the island of in the regional military Large landing ships of the Russian Crete, all Balkan states, Turkey, Cy- balance Navy transported missile launchers, ar- prus, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Iran and moured vehicles, combat vehicles etc. Iraq, coast of Egypt and south of Italy. Since end of 2015, occupied Crimea Ballistic attack potential and its de- Similarly to Kalibr, mobile coastal became, together with Novorossiysk, livery systems that were accumulated missile system Bastion with cruise one of the main bases of Russian oper- in the territory of occupied Crimea in missile Oniks can target not only ships ations in the war in Syria and remains 2014-2016 caused a signifi cant shift but also small ground targets and has as such until today. Armed forces of in military and strategic balance in potential range ability of 600 km. the Russian Federation in Crimea –sur- the Black Sea region, as well as in the Bastion,when launched from Sevas- face ships, undersurface vessels, and situation in the Black Sea – Mediter- topol, can hit ground targets in coast naval infantry – actively participate ranean and the Black Sea – Caspian regions of all the Black Sea countries. in the military activities by the Rus- regions in favour of the Russian Fed- It can also carry a nuclear warhead. sian Federation in Syria. In particular, eration. Operational-tactical ground mobile small-size missile ship Serpukhov took Naval cruise missiles Kalibr of the missile system Iskander has approxi- part in combat fi ring at ground targets Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federa- mately the same range of 500 km and near Aleppo on the 19th of August tion are able to reach, when launched can carry a nuclear warhead up to 50 2016. On the 15th of November 2016, from Sevastopol, at the very least kilotons. frigate Admiral Grygorovych launched the Baltic states, Poland, the Czech 3 cruise missiles. Republic, Slovakia, Austria, Romania,

PHOTO: PIOTR ANDRUSIECZKO

14 PHOTO: PIOTR ANDRUSIECZKO

«Cold war» United States missile destroyer USS tions on military-industrial complex Donald Cook (DDG-75)on low altitude became obvious. They were remark- off the Crimean coast at least 12 times. ably painful for Russia and impacted Besides, in April 2014 the Russian modernization of the Black Sea Fleet Along with the drastic increase in media undertook a massive informa- of the Russian Federation. numbers of anti-naval missile and air tion special attack. According to a fake Essentially, the program of build- defence systems in occupied Crimea message in hundreds of publications, ing new surface ships for the Black in 2014-2016, the Russian Federation SU-124 had used electronic counter- Sea Fleet has failed midway. Bans began to apply methods of psycho- measures system Khibiny against the of delivering Ukrainian and German logical pressure and demonstration U.S. destroyer and managed to shut engines to Russian factories were the of power against naval ships of non- down electronic management complex main reason. The Russian government Black Sea countries. of the Aegis combat system. decided to replace import of Ukrainian On the 12th of April 2014 the This became a usual practice that engines with those manufactured by Russian bomber SU-124 without continues up to now. national enterprises, however this at- externally loaded missile and bomb- However, already in 2016 results tempt was unsuccessful. ing munitions imitated attack on the of Ukrainian and international sanc-

15 LEARNING FROM UKRAINE

Crimean «trophy economy» Botanical Garden, the well-known chil- trade unions, other non-governmental dren camp Artek, Chornomornaftogaz, organizations, colleges, the Academy Massive expropriation of all Ukrainian More shipyard and others were expro- of Sciences etc. government-owned property in Crimea priated as well. In 2015, “nationalization” of assets took place under a cynical title of “na- After the occupation of the Crimean that belonged to Ukrainian business tionalization”. peninsula the aggressor also received was executed. Experts of Maidan of A list of expropriated Ukrainian prop- 13 Ukrainian facilities of the national Foreign Affairs believe that the as- erty comprises about 200 spas, all enterprise Ukroboronprom as “war sessment by Ukrainian lawyer Georgy- seaports, airports, facilities of water spoils”. Logvinsky is the most credible – about and power supply, railroad, wineries, Not only Ukrainian public property 4,000 nationalized public, private and grain elevators, and agricultural busi- was expropriated. Among those “na- non-governmental organizations. nesses. Such famous sites as Nikitsky tionalized” are assets that belong to

16 tial replacement through controlled program was extended to occupied The military base migration from regions of the Russian Crimea. and replacement Federation. Offi cials from different regions of In 9 months of 2014 the number the Russian Federation systemati- of population of population of the occupied Crimea cally and massively replace Crimean on the peninsula decreased by 77,800 people. public and municipal offi cials primarily During all period of occupation insuch areas as education and health 2,4 million residents in Crimea is “excessive” population was forced out caredespite the fact that they had economically excessive for a military by means of exemplary, demonstra- demonstrated loyalty regarding the base. Besides, they lived in conditions tive persecutions. In 2016 they were annexation. of Ukrainian democracy and freedom directed not only towards the Crimean Resettlement to Crimea along with of speech almost for a quarter of cen- Tatars, but also towards “Ukrainian the purchase of housing for pension- tury. Existence of the Crimean Tatar terrorists and infi ltrators”. Moreover, ers from remote northern regions of people on the peninsula was espe- persecutions of journalists continued. Russia, Siberia, and the Far East is cially “aggravating” for the occupiers At the same time, the colonization also evident. with regards to all complex aspects of of Crimea by residents of different According to prognosis, a signifi cant its history, problems, and prospective regions of the Russian Federation is number of Russian workers from the national goals and tasks. encouraged. construction of the Kerch Bridge and The Russian Federation choose The number of members of the other large infrastructure objects will a course of pushing “excessive” military and their families is increas- settle down permanently in Crimea. population out of Crimea and its par- ing. To this end, “military mortgage”

PHOTO: PIOTR ANDRUSIECZKO

17 LEARNING FROM UKRAINE

Networks in conditions of war

MYKHAILO HONCHAR

Non-military components are preferred in winter because conducting large-scale military campaigns is diffi cult at this time of year. In 2014, a bet was placed on creating a shortage of anthracite coal and electricity.

On December 23, 2015 Gas hybressions acts on the main Urengoy-Pomary- Uzhgorod gas pipeline. and December 17, 2016, In May and June 2014, Ukraine’s GTS After Russia seized deposits of cyber attacks on the became the object of sabotage. The the Black Sea shelf between Crimea sabotage on the objects of Ukrain- and Odesa region, the gas balance of Unifi ed Power System of ian GTS was disguised as technical Ukraine has decreased by almost 1.7 Ukraine were launched. incidents and reinforced the propa- billion cubic meters of annual produc- ganda rhetoric of Gazprom aimed at tion. Moreover, NJSC ‘Naftogaz of They failed but dealt some damage to discrediting Ukraine as a transit coun- Ukraine’ lost control over assets in the a number of regional power distribu- try. Reasoning looked like a chain ATO area to an extent of 185 million tion companies. of associations: Ukraine’s GTS is in cubic meters. Thanks to the good in- Two main energy networks of critical condition, radicals from the terconnection of the Ukrainian GTS, it is Ukraine, the Gas Transmission System Right Sector movement are respon- very diffi cult to disrupt it rapidly, even by (GTS) and the Integrated Power Sys- sible for the explosion, unstable targeted physical intervention. For com- tem (IPS), which are among the largest Ukraine is a threat to Russia’s transit plete interruption of gas supply to the in Europe, are periodically exposed to to Europe, Russia and Europe should EU from the territory of Ukraine it would cyber attacks from the aggressor’s build bypass pipelines. However, gas be necessary to conduct simultaneous territory. supply to the EU did not stop even for explosions at 29 sites of the GTS facili- a second because of the subversive ties, which is a virtually impossible.

The GTS of Ukraine comprises 38550 km of high and medium pressure pipelines, 72 gas compressor stations, 1455 gas distribution stations, 13 underground storage facilities, 6 regional management departments for main gaslines, including 41 linear production offi ces for pipelines and 9 underground gas storage departments. The underground gas storage facilities are an integral part of Ukraine’s gas transportation system. Their active storage capacity is 30.95 bil- lion m3. Source: PJSC «Ukrtansgaz»

18 PHOTO: WLADYSLAW MUSIIENKO

The coal factor ever they retained control over areas out of 90 that were subordinated to where anthracite is mainly mined and the Ministry of Energy and Coal Indus- Anthracite dependence of Ukraine which supply the needs of 7 out of 14 try are located in the territory control- prior to the heating season of 2014/ thermal power plants in Ukraine. led by Ukraine. 2015 was created by military efforts. With the onset of Russian inter- Anthracite dependence automati- Ukraine was always independent vention in Donbas, 69 out of 150 cally caused the electrical energy one, on coal and not on gas, producing Ukrainian mines were forced to stop because shortage of coal in power enough of the former, and even par- coal mining. 7 mines were destroyed plants means shortage of electricity. tially exporting it. Ukraine imported during hostilities. In the occupied However, Ukraine broke free of its only a certain amount of coking coal territories of Donetsk and Luhansk re- temporary electricity dependency in for metallurgy. gions there are 85 mines of all forms 2015. Russia, in its turn, faced the en- The separatist groups of LNR and of ownership, which is 57% of the total ergy blockade of Crimea from Ukraine DNR, which were controlled by Rus- number of Ukrainian mines of the pre- that increased the price of the penin- sia, and Russian troops failed to war period. About 60 of them were sula’s occupation and caused the fi rst capture the whole territory of Donbas mining power-generating coal – an- costly steps aimed at the energy reori- (Donetsk and Luhansk regions). How- thracite. Only 35 state-owned mines entation of the peninsula to Russia.

19 LEARNING FROM UKRAINE

Attacks from cyber space lenergos quickly resolved the situation which is postponed until more con- and after turning off the disabled sys- venient time. Sandworm, a Russian on power grids tems transferred control of the elec- group of hackers, is suspected. tricity distribution into manual mode Based on the work of the U.S. experts On December 23, 2015, the cyberat- and restored the power supply. in Ukraine, Deputy Secretary of the tack on the management system of On January 20, 2016, once again U.S. Department of Energy Elizabeth regional power distribution compa- infected fi les were mailed to energy Sherwood-Randall said on Febru- nies Prykarpattyaoblenergo, Cher- enterprises of Ukraine. The Excel fi le ary 12, 2016 that Russia is behind nivtsioblenergo, and Kyivoblenergo was distributed on behalf of the IPS the cyberattack on Ukraine’s energy occurred in Ukraine. Because of that operator, National Power Company grid. The team of experts included 220 000 consumers (about 1% of the Ukrenergo and contained an open- representatives of the U.S. Depart- total) in Prykarpattya, as well as in the source Trojan program. ment of Energy, the Department of Kyiv and Chernivtsi regions were left At the end of December 2015, cy- Homeland Security, the Department without power. The outage lasted from ber attacks were also carried out on of State and the FBI. The well-known 1 to 6 hours. transport infrastructure, in particular international cyber security company The consequent investigation on Ukrainian Railways and Boryspil ESET reported that the accident at showed that the attack on the en- International Airport. For example, the Prykarpattyaoblenergo was the re- ergy systems of Ukraine began in May Black Energy Trojan contained a letter sult of an external hacker attack. An 2014. Obviously, this coincides with from Ukrainian Railways with safety official statement citing its own in- diffuse invasion by Russia in Ukraine recommendations allegedly sent by vestigation indicates that the attack as part of the Novorossiya project. the Ministry of Industrial Policy. Also, was a part of a more global hacking On May 13, 2014, a targeted mailing 3 leading TV channels have become of Ukrainian and Polish companies. campaign was launched which in- objects of cyber attacks. This information was confirmed by stalled the Backdoor.Fonten.Win32.4 The scale of the attack suggests CERT-UA, a specialized structural trojan program (Black Energy Virus) that exposion to viruses could affect subdivision of the State Center for after activation. the information systems of a number Cyber Defense and Countering Cyber The employees of the attacked ob- of important objects, the attack on Threats.

20 PHOTO: TOM VICH ‘Victory over an adversary in this kind of war can be much more important than victory in the classical military confrontation, since it is bloodless, and the effect is striking, it bleeds out and shuts down all the authorities of the enemy state’.

General Yuriy Baluyevsky, Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in 2004-2008

as non-lethal weapons of mass de- been put together. Army General struction. The fi rst powerful offensive Yuriy Baluyevsky, who was the Chief cyberoperation by Russia abroad was of the General Staff of the Armed directed against Estonia, a member Forces of the Russian Federation in state of the NATO and the EU in April 2004-2008, commented on Serhiy 2007. Systematic hacking attacks Shoigu’s statement that victory in on state and private sites during 3 information confrontation is often weeks were revenge for intentions of more important than in the classi- the authorities of Tallinn to transfer cal war: ‘Victory over an adversary Soviet-era monuments that caused in this kind of war can be much more the Kremlin’s negative reaction. important than victory in the classi- Georgia was the next polygon for the cal military confrontation, since it is mastering cyberattacks, this time in bloodless, and the effect is striking, a military setting, during the Five-Day it bleeds out and shuts down all the war of 2008. authorities of the enemy state’. Late 2009, by order of President of On December 29, 2016, for the fi rst Russia Dmitry Medvedev, a Center for time offi cially and publicly in a joint training specialists in the information statement by the U.S, Department of confrontation was created. Homeland Security, the Offi ce of the On October 17, 2012, the Ministry Director of National Intelligence and The GTS of Ukraine encountered 3 of Defense of the Russian Federation the Federal Bureau of Investigation, powerful but unsuccessful cyber at- in cooperation with the Agency of Russia was accused of cyber attacks tacks. These attacks were aimed at Strategic Initiatives, the Ministry of on the United States. Russia’s actions the operations control center and the Education and Science of the Russian are refl ected in the Joint Analysis Re- industrial communications of the gas Federation and the Bauman Moscow port of the Department of Homeland transmission company Ukrtransgaz. State Technical University announced Security and the FBI. It is noted that the national research competition, within ten years Russian intelligence one of the topics of which was ‘Meth- services would conduct cyber op- Cyber front ods and means of circumventing anti- erations against the U.S. government against the West virus systems, network security tools, structures, critical infrastructure, protection systems of the operating think tanks, universities, political or- 2005 is the year when Vladimir Putin systems’. ganizations, and corporations. named the collapse of the USSR as Founding new secret structures Thus, the United States and Europe the largest geopolitical catastrophe. under the auspices of the military took almost a decade to come to an The same year was defi ned by crea- proves the fundamental swing in offi cial conclusion about Russia’s un- tion of a state-run, multilingual Rus- 2013 in favour of offensive activity in friendly actions in the cyber space re- sia Today television network, aimed cyberspace. On February 13, it was garding the West. Such sluggishness at foreign audiences. Simultaneously declared that the information con- and slowness only play into the Rus- with overt information-propaganda frontation unit under the auspices sian scenario of cyber Pearl Harbor. strategy of countering the West, an- of the General Staff of the Armed By zero hour, Russia strives to create other strategy – that of a cyberwar Forces of the Russian Federation a state of disinformation, chaos, and - was implemented. According to our would be created. On February 22, disorganization in the public adminis- estimates, it began in the mid-2000s 2017, Minister of Defense of the tration, ideally in the operation center at the same time when propaganda Russian Federation Sergey Shoygu of the U.S. strategic nuclear forces projects where launched. at a special meeting in the State and get a window of opportunity for Russia began to view information- Duma admitted that ‘four years ago’ nuclear blackmail of the West under psychological and cyber-operations troops of information operations had certain scenarios.

21 LEARNING FROM UKRAINE

Cyber front - obstructing the work of the Central teracting Ukrainian terrorism’) was against Ukraine Election Commission of Ukraine on created. This organization attacks the eve of the presidential elections offi cial webpages of chiefs of regional Cyber front against on May 23, 2014; state administrations, the Ministry of Ukraine was opened - blocking the work of webpages Defense of Ukraine, the Security Serv- of the Ministry of Internal Affairs ice of Ukraine, the General Staff of simultaneously with the of Ukraine and the General Pros- the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and the military component of ecutor’s Offi ce of Ukraine beginning Chief Directorate of Intelligence of the the hybrid aggression by April 4, 2014; Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. - DDoS attacks on the website of the In late 2015, the senior manage- Russia. Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine on ment of the General Staff of the Armed April 10 and April 14, 2014; Forces of the Russian Federation crea- In 2014, the CyberBerkut group was - blocking cellular phone service of ted a Center for Information Confron- created. It became notorious after tak- members of the Government of tation (CIP) in Novocherkassk as part ing responsibility for attacks on sites Ukraine; of the Center for Territorial Command of government authorities and non- - blocking leading news portals of the Southern Military District of profi ts in Ukraine and western coun- UNIAN and LIGABusinessInform; the Russian Federation. A powerful tries. The fi rst attacks were carried out - blocking the site of the President of software and hardware complex was in March 2014 during the occupation Ukraine Petro Poroshenko on July delivered to Donetsk, designed for of Crimea when several Ukrainian web 29, 2014. separate cyber attacks (DDoS-at- resources were temporarily blocked tacks). and three web-pages of NATO were In February 2015, with the support of attacked. Critical campaigns by Cyber- Russian law enforcement agencies, Bercut in the information and cyber a similar hacker organization called space include: SPRUT (the so-called ‘System of coun-

22 The war in the enemy territory KRISTINA ZELENYUK

Events of the last year clearly showed that the war in Ukraine is underway not only in Donbas, but also in the rear.

In the past year alone, six high-pro- saved lives’, Vasil Hrytsak, the head fugitive president Viktor Yanukovych fi le assassinations were committed in of the Security Service of Ukraine in orchestrating invasion of Russian Ukraine, and Ukrainian law enforce- (SBU), says. troops into Ukraine. ment agencies classifi ed them as In 2016, the whole country was Early October 2017, the General terrorist attacks. According to the law shaken by the tragedy of Pavel Sher- Prosecutor’s Offi ce announced that enforcement, a Russian footprint is emet, a well-known journalist. His car it had solved the murder. The inves- visible in all of them. was blown up early July 20, 2016 in tigation concluded that the hit on the heart of the capital. Voronenkov had been ordered by Volo- In the spring of 2017, the country dymyr Tyurin – a Russian mob kingpin Intimidate or Eliminate? was rattled by another murder, once and the former common-law husband again in the heart of the capital. In the of widow Maria Maksakov – as ordered ‘Enemy uses calm in the ATO zone for middle of the day on March 23 former by Russian Federal Security Bureau. sabotage in Ukraine’s other regions. deputy of the State Duma Denis Vo- The criminal group that organized Investigators and police offi cers are ronenkov was shot, he had received Voronenkov’s murder was comprised doing a lot of work in order to get Ukrainian citizenship a month earlier. of seven people: Russian citizens Ty- closer step by step to those who The killer opened fi re in plain view of urin, his son Dmitrii, the intermediary are organizing these terrorist and dozens of passers-by near Premier between the client and organizers, sabotage acts. We have identifi ed Palace hotel in Kyiv, where Voronenkov organizers and perpetrators – Ukrain- almost 1,000 members of subversive was to meet with former deputy of the ians Yurii Vasylenko, Oleksandr Los, groups, of whom 114 were detained State Duma of Russia Ilya Ponomarev. Yaroslav Levenets, Yaroslav Tarasenko and 54 were convicted. Each of these Voronenkov was one of the main and Pavlo Parshov. Tarasenko and Los detainees or each terrorist act that witnesses of Russian aggression are detained, Levenets and Vasilenko we have managed to prevent means against Ukraine and the role of the are wanted.

PHOTO: PIOTR ANDRUSIECZKO

23 LEARNING FROM UKRAINE

PHOTO: WWW.UNIAN.NET

woman was a member of so-called light. Nobody doubts that in his mur- Special Operations Center, which op- der, as was the case of Kharaberyush, Strike on intelligence erates under the auspices of ‘the Min- Russia is to blame. It was Shapoval‘s and military istry of State Security of the Donetsk subordinates who conducted recon- People’s Republic’. It is led by Yevdoki- naissance operations in the ATO area In March 2017, Oleksandr Kharabery- mov Vasily Viktorovich under alias and in the uncontrolled areas of Don- ush, deputy head of the main counter- ‘Lenin’. The center’s activities are co- bas. The case is being investigated intelligence department of Security ordinated and funded by the special by the General Military Prosecutor‘s Service of Ukraine in Donetsk, died services of the Russian Federatiom’, Offi ce. According to the investigation, in explosion of the car in Mariupol. head of the SBU Hrytsak says. the same ‘Special Operations Center A couple of weeks ago, the Security Three months later, in Kyiv, a car of the MSS of the DPR’ is responsible; Service detained in Odessa a woman of Maxim Shapoval, the chief of the no only it is coordinated and funded suspected of explosion. According to Special Reserve of the General Direc- by the Russian special services, the Vasyl Hrytsak, she received $15,000 torate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Center also prepared and executed for committing this terrorist act. ‘The Defense, was blown up in broad day- the murder of Kharaberyush.

24 PHOTO: UNIAN.NET

The Chechen footprint

In early September 2017, a citizen of Georgia, Timur Mahawi, was killed in the heart of the capital. The car was blown up. Mahauri fought as a volunteer in the Chechen battalion of Sheikh Mansur in Donbas and, as stated by the SBU, was a personal enemy of Ramzan Kadyrov. Besides, the Russian special services have been chasing Mahauri for a long time. He was quite well-known in criminal circles. He was detained and brought to justice in Ukraine, but entered into an agreement with the investigation, found guilty and received a conditional term. Late in the evening of October 25, Ihor Mosiychuk, Ukrainian political expert Vitalii Bala and the local resi- dent Nadiya Tarasenko were injured as a result of the explosion with a kilogram force in TNT equivalent when leaving the Espreso TV channel. The bodyguard of the People‘s Deputy, 31-year-old senior lieutenant of police Ruslan Kushnir and a casual pas- ser-by who happened to be a retired Lieutenant Colonel of the Ministry of Internal Affairs Mykhaylo Mormil died of injuries. On October 30, someone fi red at the car of Chechen volunteers Amina Okueva, who died on the spot, and her husband Adam Osmaev. Since 2014, they have fought in Donbas on the Ukrainian side with battalion Kyiv-1 as part of the Battalion named after Dzhokhar Dudayev. Okueva was also a freelance assistant to Mosiychuk. It was not the fi rst assault on them. In summer, in downtown Kyiv a killer shot in Osmaev‘s chest.

AMINA OKUEVA

25 LEARNING FROM UKRAINE

Regime’s war on the dissidents

BOHDAN YAREMENKO, TETYANA GUCHAKOVA, ANDRII KLYMENKO, OLGA KORBUT, YURII SMELYANSKI

Criminal prosecution of fabricated cases, searches at homes ofthe community leaders, assassinations and torture of dissenters – those are the methods that Russia uses in Crimea.

The victims of the occupation re- Kolchenko for 10 years, and Oleksiy On the one hand, the blow is in- gime include human rights activists, Chyrniy for 7 years in a maximum se- fl icted on the national movement in journalists, those who supported the curity colony. its political dimension. In particular, Ukrainian military units and protested Ukraine managed to arrange the in September 2016, activities of the against the referendum organized release of Hennadii Afanasiev via ex- Mejlis, the representative body of by Russia; these victims belong to change by the Kremlin in 2016. the Crimean Tatars, were banned. different nations. Thus, persecution ItsChairman Refat Chubarov and the of history teacher Oleksiy Chyrniy, Leader of the Crimean Tatars Mustafa photographer Hennadii Afanasiev, Terror against Dzhemilev (both are deputies of the activist Oleksandr Kolchenko and fi lm a single nation Ukrainian parliament) are barred from director Oleg Sentsov became public. entering their homeland. Other lead- They were charged with terrorism for However, the Crimean Tatars as the ers of the Mejlis, Akhtem Chiygoz and allegedarson attack on the offi ce of largest and most organized communi- Ilmi Umerov were also prosecuted. the United Russia party, as well as ty with a distinct pro-Ukrainian stance Luckily, they were freed in October for plans to blow up the monument to experience one of a kind cruelty on 2017 as brokered by Turkey. Lenin and the Eternal Flame memorial the part of the Russian system. In the In order to further disunite the na- in Simferopol. fi rst days of occupation, the Kremlin tion and frighten people, the occupa- The detained gave testimonies tried to win the Crimean Tatars over tion authorities resort to punitive and under torture, the court process itself by promising them numerous politi- demonstrative actions against certain was mishandled. cal dividends, but after unsuccessful individuals. Usual practice is to carry As predicted, the Russian court or- attempts to fi nd a common ground, out searches and detentions, in par- der was inadequate. Oleg Sentsov was it quickly went down the road of arbi- ticular simultaneously at numerous- sentenced for 20 years, Oleksandr trariness and terror. locations.

PHOTO: LENYARA ABIBULAYEVA

26 PHOTO: IVO DOKOUPIL

Among other things, some Crimean Tatars are accused in the so-called “Muslim case” regading the activities of the Islamic movement Hizb ut- Tahrir. In Ukraine and in Europe, it is not banned and is not considered a terrorist organization. However, in the Russian Federation, the move- ment is outlawed, which has alowed to persecute more than ten Crimean Muslims. These political prisoners have been or will be sentenced to 5 – 15 years in prison.

Muslims or terrorists Ruslan Zeytullaev is among the vic- tims of persecuting Hizb ut-Tahrir. Rus- sia treated him in a really cynical way and charged him for the organization of terrorist activities. In May 2016, the North Caucasus District Military Court in Rostov-on-Don sentenced Zeytul- laev to seven years in the colony. Then in July 2017 the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation increased the prison term to 15 years after a new trial. Zeytullaev himself says that he suffered because of his active civic stance and human rights activism. His case is an example of how Muslims became an “undesirable element” in the new Crimean realities. What’s worse, that people in Crimea are still disappearing. According to the non-governmental organization Cri- mea SOS, in the fi rst months of the an- nexation 23 people were abducted in the Crimea. Some of them were found dead, and nothing else is known about others. The UNHCR report states that as of September 2017, 10 people remain missing, and six of them are Crimean Tatars, one is Ukrainian, one is of Russian-Crimean Tatar descent. Disapparances are not investigated at all or the investigation is ineffi cient, as was the case of the fi rst victim of the occupation Reshat Ametov. He went on a one-manprotest against occupation of Crimea by the Russian army in the center of Simferopol, where he was kid- napped by unknown people in a cam- oufl age uniform. The incident was recorded by the surveillance camera. Two weeks later Ametov’s body was found with the traces of brutal death. The offenders still are not punished. If we turned a blind eye on inter- national law and morality and agree to reconciliate with the Kremlin, then the Crimean Tatars and all political prisoners would remain alone with the aggressor.

27 LEARNING FROM UKRAINE Oleg Sentsov’s letter To all whom it interests, For three years I’ve been sitting in a Russian prison. For those three years a war has been conducted against my country. The enemy is fi ghting like a coward, vilely, pretending he has nothing to do with it. No one believes him now but that doesn’t stop him. War is never pretty but truth is on our side. We attacked no one and are just defending ourselves. However, there are other enemies besides the known, outside ones. They are smaller and on the inside, here, under our skin, almost native. But they aren’t supporting us. They are supporting themselves. Some of them are leftovers from old times, times of poverty and fear. Some desire just to live in the old ways but in a new guise: newly rich and empowered. But it’s not going to work out. Each enemy, the larger and the smaller one, has different goals but we are on paths different from the ones they’re taking. I’m not going to state: “we’ll see who wins”. I know who will win. The desire for freedom and progress is unstoppable. There are many of us in captivity in Russia and even more in Donbass. Some have been freed. Others wait and hope. Everyone has their story and their experiences of conditions of detention. Some do PR on behalf of the captives. Some really get down to work. Becoming a better-known prisoner – to get exchanged for Russian captives in Ukraine – faster than others isn’t, however, the way I’d choose. I don’t want to pull a blanket over me. I want to remain just a surname on the list. I doubt I’ll be given an offer to leave prison last – but that would’ve been a good choice all the same. Here, in captivity, we are limited: and not even by freedom – this can no longer be taken – but by being of little help to our country while we’re in here. To be more precise, we can do one thing: hold on. There is no need to pull us out of here at all costs. This wouldn’t bring victory any closer. Yet using us as a weapon against the enemy will. You must know: we are not your weak point. If we’re supposed to become the nails in the coffi n of a tyrant, I’d like to become one of those nails. Just know that this particular one will not bend. Glory to Ukraine! Oleg Sentsov August, 2016

28 29 LEARNING FROM UKRAINE

Disappearance, kidnapping, murder. Repressions against the Crimean Tatars.

PIOTR ANDRUSIECZKO

According to a report from the organization CrimeaSOS, between the beginning of the annexation in late winter 2014, and late December 2016, 43 abductions have been recorded. Of the total number of people kidnapped, 7 people were released after some time in captivity, 6 were found dead, 2 were subsequently sentenced by the Russian court and are currently incarcerated, and 18 are still missing.

30 PHOTO: IVO DOKOUPIL

The authors of the report break yet been found, and one person was ten, kidnappings take place in broad down the known abductions into two found dead. daylight and in the presence of wit- periods. The fi rst period lasts from At that point, Ukrainian activists nesses. March to May 2014. The second - from and journalists made up the majority From the summer of 2014, the summer 2014 to December 2016. of the missing persons. The Russian situation has changed. Most of the During the fi rst period, most of the special services and members of victims are Crimean Tatars, and of the kidnapped were released (often after so the called Crimean ‘self-defense’ 11 abducted Crimean Tatars, 5 were having been tortured). Five have not units were behind the detention. Of- found dead.

31 LEARNING FROM UKRAINE

Political cases were forced to undergo involuntary tals of their religion. Representatives psychiatric examination, reminiscent of Crimean Solidarity, the organization On the 26th of February 2014, sev- of the practices of the USSR. which provides legal and fi nancial sup- eral thousand people held a protest Today, a similar case is underway port for the families of the accused, before the Verkhovna Rada of the against the Crimean Tatar activist state that the authorities categorize Autonomous Republic of Crimea in Suleyman Kadyrov. On October 5th, Muslims into two groups; those loyal support of the territorial integrity of Russian services conducted a search to Russia and its opponents. The fi rst Ukraine; Crimean Tatars were among of his house on the basis of a ruling group is represented by the Rus- the protesters. On this day, a brush by Judge Rodionov on the suspicion of sia-controlled Mufti, the other group with pro-Russian counter-demonstra- his calling for the non-recognition of unites activists who object to the Rus- tors occured which then turned into the borders of Russia and the support sian presence. mass clashes. of the civil group Asker. ‘Our religion does not allow us to be Even from the point of view of Rus- On October 11, 2016, Suleyman aloof if someone is in misfortune,’ the sian legislation, Crimea was at that Kadyrov was charged with ‘separa- representatives of Crimean Solidarity moment under Ukrainian jurisdiction. tism’. In April 2017, the Federal Finan- emphasize. Nevertheless, the Russian authori- cial Monitoring Service put him on a ties along with Crimean prosecutor, list of extremists and terrorists. Natalia Poklonskaya, then decided to Kadyrov is a well-regarded retired “Administrative cases”, initiate an invistigation of the organ- offi cer of the Ministry of Internal Af- izers of the pro-Ukrainian rally under fairs of Ukraine. He became one of or quickly and on a large the criminal charge of inciting mass the fi rst Crimean Tatars sent to Crimea scale disorder. as an offi cer of the Soviet militia when In January 2015, Mejlis deputy Crimean Tatars began to resettle The widespread persection of Crimean chairman Ahtem Chiygoz and others there. Tatars by Russian authorities on the were detained. As a result, seven After the annexation, Kadyrov did peninsula is delivered in the form of Crimean Tatars were charged in the not withhold his pro-Ukrainian views. administrative punishments. The fi rst so-called case of February 26th. On November 30, 2015, FSB offi cers large-scale wave of administrative On September 11, 2017, after along with 12 masked offi cers armed cases took place in May 2014, when a trial in which the prosecution with assault rifl es broke into his house Crimean Tatars came out to protest party presented statements given by in Feodosia. against the banning of Mustafa anonymous witnesses in a Russian ‘How have we reached this point? Dzhemilev’s entry into Crimea. court in Simferopol, Ahtem Chiygoz Throughout the search, they stood Recently, this method has been was sentenced to 8 years in a high- with rifl es aimed at us. Even so, I am employed most actively as courts security prison. He was accused of not afraid of guns,’ said Kadyrov’s 76- imposed several hundred administra- “organizing and participating in mass year-old mother in June 2016. tive punishments on Crimean Tatars disorder” during the rally for the integ- Kadyrov’s trial continues, but in 2017. rity of Ukraine on February the 26th in he does not intend to abandon his This is a simple and expedient Simferopol. stance. method of punishing and intimidating On October 25th, Chiygoz was hand- the disobedient en masse. ed over to the Turkish side; the media If several people gather in a public believe Turkey’s president Recep Er- Hizb ut-Tahrir place at the same time and thus ob- dogan, facilitated Chiygoz’s case. or Muslims on the dock struct the movement of pedestrians or In addition to Chiygoz, Turkey ac- vehicles, it can be used a reason for cepted another Mejlis deputy chair- The Russian authorities in Crimea are detainment. man, Ilmi Umerov who in September pursuing criminal cases regarding ter- When searches and arrests began 2017, was sentenced to two years in rorism and extremism. Crimean Tatars among Crimean Tatars, neighbors a high security prison for the crime of are accused of belonging to the or- stopped by their homes and stood out- violating the integrity of Russia. ganization Hizb ut-Tahrir, which Russia side court houses to express their sup- In 2016, Federal Security Service considers a terrorist group although port. Local activists fi lmed searches investigators fi led a criminal case the party legally operates in the United and shared them on the Internet. against Umerov. He was indicted ac- States and until 2014, was also legal ‘After the annexation of Crimea, cording to Article 201.1 of the Criminal in Ukraine and Crimea. Hizb ut-Tahrir many journalists and activists left Code under which he is charged with is a Pan-Islamic party that spreads the the peninsula, then the arrests and calling for public action aimed at un- ideas of the Caliphate, while rejecting inspections began. The authorities dermining the integrity of Russia as the use of force. wanted to do this with minimal public- a result of Umerov’s appearance on Fifteen people have already been ity. We decided to inform the public the Crimean-Tatar TV channel, ATR, detained for their connections to about these cases so that knew what in Kiev. Hizb ut-Tahrir. Three were sentenced was happening. On February 21, 2017, Umerov explained, ‘On the contrary, to 5 years in prison, and one - Ruslan we once again heard about a search in I advocate the reinstatement of the Zeytullaev – received up to 15 years. the house of Marlen Mustafayev and territorial integrity of the Russian Fed- They were all sent to different regions we came to support him. We recorded eration since Russia itself, violated in Russia. what happened on our phones. Even- it’s own integrity by anexing part of Families of the arrested Crimean tually, one of the offi cers said, ‘Let us another state’s region’. Tatars talk about the persecution of now explain.’ A few sentences were During the trial, the defendants those who adhere to the fundamen- spoken through a megaphone. In the

32 PHOTO: LENYARA ABIBULAYEVA

33 LEARNING FROM UKRAINE

husband, Seyran, was accused of or- ganizing an illegal rally and spreading extremist materials within the social network. He was also charged with listening to Chechen songs by Timur Mutsuraev, some of whose songs are prohibited in the Russian Federation. He was detained for 12 days,’ Mu- mine Salieva says. One can also be subject to admin- istrative punishment for attending illegal rallies. In Crimea, there have been no major protests for a long time, however, Crimean Tatars sometimes go out to protest; demanding that they to stop being treated as terrorists, for example. Consequently, the court imposes fi nes or arrest. On the 18th of Decem- ber alone, Crimean courts imposed fi nes on dozens of Crimean Tatars. ‘I do not do politics, but as a woman, wife and mother, I would like to ask people in Europe not to forget about the Crimean Tatars! With what can you compare the pain of a mother whose son is missing? How can we describe the fear of mothers who are waiting in the evenings for their children to come home? And we are only guilty of wanting to live on our land and feel free. Europe should not be indifferent to what is happening in Crimea,’ says Elmira Ablyalimova, wife of Ahtem Chiygoz.

Not only Crimean Tatars

It is not only Crimean Tatars who were under the special supervision by Rus- PHOTO: PIOTR ANDRUSIECZKO sian authorities. Crimean-born Oleg Sentsov is serving a 20-year prison term in the Russian colony. ‘On the contrary, I advocate the reinstatement of the On August 4, 2017, 46-year-old territorial integrity of the Russian Federation since Ukrainian farmer Volodymyr Balukh was sentenced by the district court Russia itself, violated it’s own integrity by anexing in Crimea for 3 years and 7 months part of another state’s region’. for the storage of explosives and am- munition. His story began at the end of Ilmi Umerov 2013, when Balukh, a resident of the Serebryanka village (in northwestern Crimea), displayed a Ukrainian fl ag on end, our hands were twisted and we ‘My husband, Seyran, was charged his home in solidarity with the Maidan were dragged to the car,’ activists with leading an illegal rally just be- in Kiev. International organizations from Simferopol anonymously recall cause he stated in a mosque that have recognized Balukh and Oleg in March 2017. the Crimean Tatars’ homes were Sentsov as political prisoners. That time 10 people were detained. being searched. But this is our tra- There are a lot of similar cases. They were arrested and held for 5 days dition: if a Muslim happens to be in for violating public order (allegedly trouble, they will announce this in they were going to block the road). the mosque’, says his wife, Mumine Another cause for administrative Salieva. ‘In January, employees of punishment can be the publishing and the Center for the Prevention of distribution of extremist materials via Extremism came to our house. They social networks. didn’t find anything illegal, but her

34 Nikolai Polozov says, ‘There is a house, there are people in togas, there is a prosecutor, but there is no court’

INTERVIEWED BY In a lawsuit against former deputy the same – a guilty verdict, regard- PIOTR ANDRUSIECZKO chairman of Mejlis Chiygoz, the less of evidence, and time in prison. testimony of an anonymous witness Why is this happening? Russia has was used, it is virtually impossible to no independent judiciary. Courts in identify this person. Is this how it’s Russia are completely dependent on usually done? the executive, the same is true with The law provides for the possibility the legislature. It’s no secret that the of hearing witnesses whose personal State Duma of the Russian Federation information is classified. For that is a structure that is fully governed by matter, not only in Russia but also the president’s offi ce. Courts are in in other states. In Russia, however, a similar situation. In other words, this provision is abused. Initially, the there is a house, there are people in provision was created to ensure, for togas, there is a prosecutor, but there example, that a member of a criminal is no court. At most, judges will try, group could testify against other depending on their level of obedience, Nikolai Polozov criminals, in such cases data is with- to comply with court procedures. They held for the safety of that person and know in advance what the verdict will defended Nadiya their family. be but not its strictness. Savchenko and Pussy In Russian political cases, often police investigators are witnesses. It In this case, is there any chance of Riot. In Crimea, he is impossible to control it. However, a case going through all authorities represented the there are provisions that allow the in the Russian Federation and then defense to protect all data regarding on to appeal to the European Court? interests of Ahtem witnesses, but the court denies us If it goes about the legal component Chiygoz (the deputy access. Therefore, in this particular then yes. My colleagues, including process and other political processes Mark Feygin, and I have been control- chairman of the Mejlis in Russia, the authorities abuse the ling (overseeing as well as participat- of the Crimean Tatar use of anonymous witnesses in the ing in) the defense in political trials interests of prosecution. Sentences in Russia for several years. We have people, an institution are often pronounced on the basis of certain tested techniques that we call that is banned in anonymous testimony. Unfortunately, political advocacy. This implies a kind the European Court of Human Rights of hybrid symbiosis in various areas: Russia). He was does not pay much attention to the legal, where we do what lawyers usu- accused of organizing abuse of this rule in Russia. ally do, as well as the media, where we communicate with the public, form mass unrest during What is the prognosis in a broader opinions, inform on a particular case. the pro-Ukrainian context, given retaliations against There is also the political side of the Crimean Tatars? case which involves a lot of institu- demonstration of In Russia, there has been no ac- tions in order to establish a dialogue Crimean Tatars on quittal in any political process in with the Russian authorities and pres- modern history; with Putin’s regime sure them. The best example is the February 26, 2014. it is impossible. At best, if the ac- case of Nadiya Savchenko. Why was As a result of Turkish cused were innocent and they had she released? First of all, we under- to somehow solve this problem, took a series of steps that resulted in intervention, Chiygoz this person was fi rst sentenced and electing her to the Verkhovna Rada and Ilmi Umerov were then pardoned. This was the case, and appointing her a delegation for example, with Nadiya Savchenko member of the PACE. For the fi rst time released in the fall of and Hennadii Afanasiev. The second in post-Soviet history, in connection 2017. We talked with option is that the convicted person with a criminal case, the U.S. presi- is released after sentencing: time in dent called the president of Russia Polozov in March 2017 detention is counted as time served to demand her release. The last time in front of the Russian toward the sentence. The authorities a similar situation occurred was in the may also apply amnesty, which also case of the Soviet dissident Andrei Sa- Supreme Courthouse changes the situation of a particular kharov. These actions pretty much led in Simferopol. person. In other cases, the result is to the release of Savchenko.

35 LEARNING FROM UKRAINE

PHOTO: ANTON NAUMLYUK

Are you not afraid that you will be tion regarding me under Article 308 me from a criminal case. I am a bone pressured by the authorities, as of the Criminal Code for refusing to in their throat. Unlike the Crimean law- was the case with Emil Kurbedinov’s testify as a witness. This is due to the yers who live and have families here lawyer? case against Ilmi Umerov, the second and are in one way or another forced This is already happening. During vice-speaker of the Mejlis. I was his to balance the interests of the client the last six months in Crimea, there lawyer but the FSB decided to exclude and their own, I am a person from the were two attemps to charge me in me from the Umerov’s defense group. outside - I work and live in Moscow, a criminal case. Moreover, the fi rst The investigator decided to interro- and that’s the reason I am even more attempt still continues from Septem- gate me and the court agreed. In fact, irritating to the local government. It ber. Investigative actions are being I was kidnapped by FSB offi cers in wants to force me to refuse to handle conducted. This is a series of actions Simferopol. They brought me to the lo- cases on the peninsula by any means where investigators gather evidence cal administration. I refused to testify necessary. as to whether there were components because of attorney-client privilege. of a crime in the actions of a suspect. Now there is an pre-investigative What else can you expect from In the fi rst case, I am accused under check in the case of my refusal to tes- the Crimean authorities regarding three articles: lack of respect for tify. This is strong pressure that I have Crimean Tatars? At the moment, trial participants, assault of an of- not encountered in Russia before, the quite a few new administrative fi cial, and perverting the course of last attempts to open a case against cases have been initiated... justice. In the second more recent me were fi ve years ago. In fact, only Without a doubt, all-out persecu- case, they are conducting investiga- the investigator’s signature separates tions have intensifi ed. I see several

36 by state-controlled media. Essentu- ally, there is no free media in Russia. There are several web pages, but they are not the primary opinion makers. An embargo is imposed on all offi cial information channels that prevents them for publishing any information relating to the repression of Crimean Tatars. When it comes to other journal- ists, Ukrainian media are afraid to come here, and their fears are well- grounded. Roman Sushchenko, the detained journalist from the Ukrinform agency and who is being defended by my colleague Mark Feygin in Moscow, was careless. He came to Moscow and was accused of espionage. Therefore, there is no guarantee that if a crew from a Ukrainian TV channel or publi- cation arrives in Crimea they will not be detained. When it comes to foreign journal- ists, it is very diffi cult to get into Crimea. First of all, this is due to the position of the Ukrainian authorities. Kiev considers Crimea an occupied territory and has introduced a special entry procedure. It is impossible to travel via Moscow and the administra- tive border is diffi cult to cross. Thus, information from Crimea is meager and attained primarily through social networks. If we are talking about Russia’s atti- tude towards Crimea, de facto a lot of people are indifferent to events on the peninsula. Many see the cause of the economic crisis in the incorporation of the Crimea. They actually accuse people on the peninsula of the prob- lems they are suddenly facing. With regards to fl ag-waving on television, to a large extent it is not real. On the anniversary of the assassination of areas here. The fi rst one concerns the area which is now slightly less promi- Boris Nemtsov in Moscow there was political persecution of the Mejlis nent, includes cases against spies a march in his memory. We also had members; I mean those who actively and saboteurs. Several people are our column; several Crimean Tatars opposed the occupation in 2014. This accused, in particular Evgeniy Panov, came. We marched with a big ban- is primarily the case of Chiygoz and Dmytro Shtiblikov and others. In these ner which said, ‘Stop repressions in Umerov, but also of Ali Asanov, Mus- cases, investigation is underway. The Crimea’. Many participants expressed tafa Degermenci and other detainees fourth area is not a matter of Crimean solidarity and sympathy with those in the so-called case of February 26th. Tatars but of Ukrainian activists who people who were with us. Therefore, The second area is the detention and are civic-minded, loyal to Ukraine and a minority in Russia openly expresses trials regarding membership in the are persecuted for this. its dissatisfaction with annexation and Hizb ut-Tahrir organization. In Ukraine repression in Crimea. However, most it is legal. In Russia, it is forbidden, You live and work in Moscow. In prefer not to notice this, as well as the and with the onset of occupation, which Russian circles is there an Crimea itself. its members were outlawed. I follow understanding of what is happening these cases, there is no evidence in the Crimea? that all these people have a real Unfortunately, the problem with Cri- connection with Hizb ut-Tahrir. There mea lies in the fact that the Russian is no legitimization of the members. authorities organize an information The FSB itself decides and appoints blockade around it. Any negative them - you, you and you. The third information from Crimea is blocked

37 LEARNING FROM UKRAINE

Trojan Horse of the ‘people’s councils’

EDUARD ANDRIUSHCHENKO

Since spring 2014, Russia has repeatedly changed the tactics of subversion. Simultaneously with the armed aggression in Donbas, Putin’s regime initially relied on taking administrative structures by force and creating so called ‘republics’ in other regions. Then, for some time, sabotage in Ukraine’s domastic front was a priority. Eventually, Moscow ‘invented’ some kind of ‘light version of separatism’. The idea was that now the agents of infl uence should not persuade people directly for the withdrawal from Ukraine, but within the scope of the law, they should push people towards the ideas of federalization.

At the beginning of 2015, in two tus of ‘porto-franco’ (free port), in holidays’ for local businesses, would large cities in the south of Ukraine, existence there in the 19th century. turn the seaside city into a ‘second Odesa and Zaporizhia, new advocacy They believed that the cancellation of Singapore’. Zaporizhia also advocated groups simultaneously emerged. In customs duties on the import-export for special environmental status. They Odesa, they offer to revive the sta- of goods in the port of Odesa and ‘tax said that the industrial city was suf-

38 autonomists’ were promptly stopped Lviv region (as well as attempts to by the SBU. Three active members fuel interethnic conflict). of the ‘council’, pro-Russian journal- But, as it turned out, Russians also ists Artem Buzila, Olena Glischynska, were ‘working’ within more ‘quiet’ ar- and Vitalii Didenko from Odesa were eas. At their request deputies of local detained and arrested on suspicion councils of the Zhytomyr, Rivne and of separatism. Nevertheless, over Ivano-Frankivsk regions requested the course of several months, other that the Cabinet of Ministers and members of the ‘council’ announced the Verkhovna Rada grant more plans to create ‘Bessarabian Re- power to the regions. The names of public ‘Budzhak’’ (which, in addition intermediaries who received money to Ukrainian territories, would have in Moscow and bribed local deputies encorporated Gagauzia of Moldova), were disclosed. Among them were the however this declaration was of no infamous Zaporizhzhya ex-journalist consequence. and political technologist, Pavel Zolo- The investigation confirmed what tarev. The SBU released records of his was obvious earlier, namely that conversations with other subjects of the new separatist projects have the case. ties with Russia. The names of the It is important to understand that Kremlin curators of the projects were the majority of those who executed also known – Putin’s aide Vladislav the Russian orders were not ideo- Surkov and his deputy Inal Ardzinba. logical separatists, but ‘Gastarbeit-

In Odesa, they offer to revive the status of ‘port- franco’ (free port), in existence there in the 19th century. They believed that the cancellation of customs duties on the import-export of goods in the port of Odesa and ‘tax holidays’ for local businesses, would turn the seaside city into PHOTO: 1-NEWS.NET a ‘second Singapore’. fering from polluted air, and therefore Later head of the SBU Vasyl Hrytsak ers’ - political consultants, seasoned they expected a law that would al- revealed interesting details of the protesters and crowd organizers. locate the city more money from the case. He said that simultaneously They acted accordingly as their cura- state budget. with the proclamation in the south- tors had ordered and not of their own In both cities, rallies and roundta- ern Bessarabia of a new ‘republic’, volition. bles are held to support these ideas; there was a plan to blow up two After the briefi ng by Hrytsak and relevant requests addressed to Kiev bridges connecting the region with Lutsenko, ‘separatists light ’ seem to and signed by various deputies are the rest of Ukraine, as well as an have ended their activities. There has voiced. However, the events in Donbas invasion of Russian ‘green men’ from not been any similar new movement have produced persistent opposition neighboring Transnistria. in Ukraine since. It is possible that to demands for regional ‘isolation’ in In February 2017, Hrytsak and the instigators simply decided to take the country. The media and active the Attorney General Yuriy Lutsenko, a break while waiting for the attention members of society therefore had res- held a special briefing about the to their activities to die down and to ervations about ‘environmentalists’ ‘federalists’. Representatives of law look for new foot soldiers. However, and ‘free-port supporters’, especially enforcement mentioned titles of it is more likely that they count on because leaders of these projects other projects which, together with slightly different subversive activity, were afi lliated with pro-Russian move- the three mentioned above, Moscow in particular the instigation of artifi - ments. planned to implement. They were cial interethnic confl icts that, apart Meanwhile, in the Odesa region in the ‘Transcarpathian Region’, ‘Slo- from causing internal destabilization, the spring of 2015, another similar bozhanshchina’, the ‘Public Council would worsen the image of Ukraine structure appears – the ‘People’s of Dnipropetrovsk region’ and ‘Gali- abroad. Council of Bessarabia’. Its repre- china’. The choice of these regions is sentatives support a ‘national-cultural understandable – they were pushing autonomy’ for the polyethnic southern buttons. In addition to the areas that region. Such claims bore a larger re- were to be included in ‘Novorossiya’, semblance to separatism, therefore, separatist calls can also sometimes the activities of the ‘Bessarabian be heard in Transcarpathia and the

39 LEARNING FROM UKRAINE

International recognition: mission failed

BY MILAN LELICH

Despite all its efforts, Russia is not able to secure international legitimization of its occupied territories of Georgia and Ukraine.

Russia remains the only possible op- The Donbas-Ossetian The Ukrainian context tion, but, as mentioned above, direct friendship is different contact with the certain areas of Donetsk and the Luhansk regions are In the Pacifi c lies the dwarf state of Of course, the Caucasian history is extremely risky for Russian business. Nauru – one island with an area of more relevant in the Ukrainian con- Therefore, a proxy variant was found just over 21 square kilometers and text. First of all, because South Os- in the form of South Ossetia – a dwarf more than 10 thousand inhabitants. setia is the only territorial entity that formation without its own economy, Despite its size, Nauru is an independ- ‘recognized the independence’ of the totally dependent and controlled, in ent country, the smallest republic so-called ‘Donetsk People’s Repub- other words, a formation that is oc- in the world, and, most importantly, lic’ (‘DNR’) and ‘Luhansk People’s cupied by Russia. a member of the United Nations. Republic’ (‘LNR’), not without orders After the so-called ‘nationalization’ It is unlikely that someone would from Moscow, of course. Even Abk- of all Ukrainian enterprises that still have ever mentioned Nauru in the hazia did not follow this path, let alone remained in the territory of the cer- post-Soviet era nor in the world in other international satellites or those tain areas of Donestk and Luhansk general, if not for a specifi c kind of friendly with Moscow, e.g.Venezuela. regions, management was then business mastered by the authorities Obviously, the Russian Federation transferred to the Vneshtorgservis of that country - trade in the interna- does not see any sense in ‘buying’ the company which as luck would have it, tional legal recognition of other states. recognition of ‘LDNR’ from Nauru as was registered in South Ossetia. Since Shortly after the Russia-Georgia war, well. Besides, offi cial recognition by no normal bank would risk operating at the end of 2009, Nauru’s foreign the Kremlin itself would be equivalent in the certain areas of Donestk and minister went to the other end of the to Russia’s exit from the Minsk proc- Luhansk regions, the fi nancial life of world, to Abkhazia and South Os- ess, and would compromise the logic the self-proclaimed republics is also setia, currently occupied by Russia, of its hybrid war against Ukraine and closely connected with South Ossetia, and signed diplomatic relations with ultimately, would lead to a total stone- which has become a real window onto these entities thus recognizing their walling of the Russian Federation by the world for ‘LDNR’. independence. Obviously, there are the civilized world. no real economic connections nor Therefore, in its policy of ‘recogni- any other ties between the people tion’ of the occupied Ukrainian ter- Fake ‘diplomatic offi ces’ of Nauru and Abkhazia or Ossetia, ritories, Russia is guided purely by and there will never be such ties. pragmatic considerations. On the one As is the case with this kind of fake Therefore, Russia’s direct interest is hand, Russian companies can not formation, ‘DNR’ and ‘LNR’ are strug- visible. Previously, it was only able to deal directly with businesses located gling to recreate for themselves the ‘convince’ Nicaragua and Venezuela in the certain areas of Donetsk and attributes of genuine statehood: that Abkhazia and South Ossetia are the Luhansk regions for fear of falling symbols, a parliament, a government, independent, but Nauru has become under international sanctions. Con- various state institutions, etc. Inter- the fourth state in the world (after versely, nothing hinders their contacts national contacts and relations are the abovementioned two and Russia) with South Ossetia while the Kremlin some of the indispensable attributes to recognized the independence of offi cially recognizes the independence of a full-fl edged state, as are its inter- the North Caucasian republic. Nauru of the latter. Western sanctions are national contacts and connections. received a generous gratuity from unlikely to do any harm to the people The militants have ill-disguised prob- Moscow for services rendered – $ 50 of the Ossetians who remain unrecog- lems regarding this situation with the million ‘in social programs’. The small nized by anyone other than the four exception of their contact with Russia nation is not ashamed of trading in named states due to their republic’s or South Ossetia. So Donetsk, and state status. For instance, in 2002 status. to a lesser extent Luhansk, strive to it refused to recognize Taiwan, in For their part, enterprises that open their ‘diplomatic missions’ in civi- exchange for money from mainland remained in the occupied territories lized, European countries. Of course, China. However, three years later the have long sought to gain access none such country recognizes ‘LDNR’ Taiwanese succeeded in outbidding to world markets, especially after as states. They consider the certain for the loyalty of the dwarf state. Ukraine offi cially started the blockade. areas of Donestk and Luhansk regions

40 PHOTO: PIOTR ANDRUSIECZKO

41 LEARNING FROM UKRAINE

PHOTO: PIOTR ANDRUSIECZKO as an integral part of Ukraine, but territory, there was no need to resort this has not stopped the separatists. The Russians have to any tricks like those with Nauru or Every announcement of this kind is reached comparatively South Ossetia. Of course, there were treated as evidence of the steady in- attempts to be slick with regard to ternational advancement of the ‘young greater success in their the legitimacy of the appearance of republics’. attempts to legitimize ‘green men’, ‘referendum’, the an- In particular, the establishment of nouncement of ‘independence’ and ‘DNR’ “diplomatic missions’ or ‘consu- the annexation of subsequently the ‘reunifi cation’ of lates’, in the Czech Republic, Greece, Crimea. Since the Crimea and the Russian Federation, Italy, France, and Finland has been especially shortly after the annexation announced. At the moment, plans are Russian Federation is as early as 2014. Moreover, noone in voiced regarding Germany and Nor- outspoken about its the West wants to cancel the ‘Crimean way. The scheme is typical – a non- package of sanctions’. governmental organization with the rights to this territory, The vote on the United Nations title ‘Representation Center of the there was no need to resolution on the territorial integrity of Donetsk People’s Republic in Italy’ is Ukraine of March 27, 2014 defi ned the registered in a resident country and is resort to any tricks like disposition of power globally regarding heralded as some kind of a full-fl edged those with Nauru or the Crimean issue, which has since mission of the ‘DNR’. In fact, the whole then remained almost the same. ‘mission’ is, as a rule, one single room South Ossetia. Only slightly more than a dozen of with a corresponding plaque. the almost two hundred UN members Chiefs of such ‘diplomatic missions’ took Russia’s side, namely friends are either people from the Russian the hybrid aggression of the Russian from the ‘club of dictators’ such as Federation, or local politicians from Federation, these initiatives are purely North Korea, Syria, Venezuela, Cuba, parties that are friendly to the Kremlin, media exercises and are designed to Belarus, Zimbabwe and ‘old geopoliti- usually far-right or far-light, or frankly, maximize the public’s reaction; not cal friends’ like Armenia. Meanwhile, just plain political freaks. The fate of real activities as such. exactly 100 states clearly expressed such structures is identical. The of- support for the Ukrainian affi liation fi cial authority of a European country of Crimea during the vote. In this states that there can be no ‘missions’ Dictator friends instance, Russia’s attempts to effec- of unrecognized republics within their tively split the international commu- territory, they may declare it a private The Russians have reached com- nity and justify its aggressive actions initiative and sometimes even initiate paratively greater success in their at- against its neighbors failed. a liquidation procedure. However, the tempts to legitimize the annexation of ‘mission’ may also somehow disap- Crimea. Since the Russian Federation pear all by itself. Like many things in is outspoken about its rights to this

42 PHOTO: IVO DOKOUPIL