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Market Review (May 2021)

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Market Review (May 2021) Market Review - May 2021 Macroeconomic Update Global economy continues to grow at a healthy pace with strong data coming from major economies like US, China, UK, etc. The improvement was supported by demand recovery aided by fall in Covid-19 cases, fast roll out of vaccine, high savings in Advanced Economies (AEs), large fiscal stimulus, easing restrictions, sequential improvement in employment and manufacturing, etc. The recovery momentum in India faltered on back of localised lockdowns by practically all major states. While the stringency of lockdowns is lower than one imposed last year but effect on demand and economic activities, especially discretionary ones was prominent. While the number of cases has fallen sharply from the peak seen during first half of May 2021, some State Governments took precautionary approach and have extended the lockdowns into June 2021, albeit with some relaxations. While it appears that worst is largely behind us, economic recovery is likely to be impacted in June 2021 as well, though to a lesser extent than May 2021. Update on COVID-19: The total Covid-19 cases increased to over % of population 171 million as on 31 May 2021 from ~153 million a month ago with ~50% of the increase on account of India. New cases in Given 1+ dose Fully vaccinated Population (in million) advanced economies like US, UK, Europe etc. moderated Israel 60 57 8.7 significantly as the vaccination drive progressed at a healthy pace. U.K. 59 39 67.9 In many of the advanced economies, significant proportion of eligible population has been vaccinated and is likely to achieve Canada 51 5 37.7 herd immunity by end of this year. U.S. 51 41 331.0 China 47 NA 1,439.3 In India, the total cases rose to over 28 million as on 31 May 2021 from ~19 million as of end of last month as the new cases rose Germany 43 18 83.8 sharply during the first half of the month. However, the new cases EU 38 18 447.7 addition declined at rapid pace, in the second half of the month, as Brazil 22 11 212.6 the restrictions imposed by States helped to curb the spread. This along with strong recovery rate helped to reduce the active cases Mexico 17 10 128.9 from ~3.2 million as of 30 April 2021 to ~2 million as on 31 May India 13 3 1,380.0 2021. Further, the death rate remained low at 1.1% compared to Russia 10 7 145.9 global average of over 2%. Vaccination roll out in India was impacted by lack of availability of vaccines during the month. Indonesia 6 4 273.5 Supply is expected to ramp up over next couple of months as the Source: Bloomberg; JM Financials vaccine producers ramp up their capacity. By end CY21, India is also expected to have vaccinated significant proportion of their eligible population. India's GDP growth recover strongly in Q4, lockdowns to slowdown the momentum: GDP in Q4FY21 rebounded strongly and grew at 1.6% YoY better than official estimate of Central Statistical Office (CSO). The improvement was driven by increased government spending which jumped over 28% YoY driven by clearance of dues against subsidies and acceleration in spending by both Central and State Governments. Private consumption (PFCE) also turned positive after 3 quarters of consecutive contractions. Interestingly, investment grew at healthy pace driven by strong execution and government thrust on capex. With domestic demand normalising, imports growth improved and outpaced growth in exports. On the GVA side, while agriculture remained resilient in Q4FY21, manufacturing sector and construction services grew at a robust pace. Services sector growth turned positive driven by higher government spending and continued improvement in financial and real estate services, although trade, hotels, transport services continued to act as a drag. Quarter ended (YoY, %) 31-12-2020 31-03-2021 Quarter ended (YoY, %) 31-12-2020 31-03-2021 GDP 0.5 1.6 GVA 1.0 3.7 Private Consumption -2.8 2.7 Agriculture, forestry & fishing 4.5 3.1 Government Consumption -1.0 28.3 Industry 2.9 7.9 Gross Capital Formation 3.0 13.8 Manufacturing 1.7 6.9 Gross fixed capital formation 2.6 10.9 Construction 6.5 14.5 Exports -3.5 8.8 Services -1.2 1.5 Imports -5.0 12.3 Trade, hotels, transport, etc. -7.9 -2.3 The recovery in economy will be impacted by lockdowns imposed by major states in India, however the impact is likely to be considerably lower than last year's lockdown. The economic impact is visible in last couple of months with recovery momentum slowing and there is rise in uncertainty on revival due to possible impact on consumer sentiments due to 2nd wave. In our view, given the low base, strong external sector, pent up demand and normalisation of activity, growth should recover strongly H2FY22 onwards. This is provided the Covid-19 situation does not deteriorate from here on and improves sequentially. 1/7 Market Review - May 2021 Macroeconomic Update (contd...) Recovery momentum faces headwind due to 2nd wave: Economic revival was considerably impacted with most indicators deteriorating sequentially. While the goods movement through railway were relatively stable, manufacturing PMI was significantly lower than last month and just above the contraction threshold of 50. The impact of lockdowns was visible with key indicators like power demand, retail auto registration, E- way bills, unemployment, etc. significantly affected. Indicators Units Apr-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Retail registration - Auto@ 2W -52.5 -10.3 -2.1 -5.7 -19.1 -46.1 PV -68.5 7.2 12.4 16.6 -2.2 -37.6 MHCV -65.5 -49.9 -25.5 -9.7 -15.9 -46.2 LCV -51.8 -8.0 -13.7 -3.1 -15.8 -51.6 Tractors -60.8 38.7 18.7 21.8 3.1 -34.8 2year CAGR, Gross GST Collection -44.1 0.5 10.3 7.8 11.4 1.2 % Average E-Way bill generated -44.5 9.3 13.3 13.9 5.8 -14.2 Power demand -10.1 1.5 2.1 5.7 3.2 -4.7 IMPS Spending 8.9 40.7 41.1 36.2 33.1 21.5 Railway Freight Tonnage -18.3 3.9 6.5 4.4 5.0 4.6 Railway Freight Earnings -21.8 4.2 2.7 0.9 2.4 2.5 Manufacturing PMI* Index 27.4 56.8 56.4 55.4 55.5 50.8 Services PMI* Index 5.4 49.8 52.3 54.6 54.0 46.4 Unemployment % 23.5 6.7 9.1 6.5 8.0 11.9 Labour Force Participation Rate % 35.6 40.7 40.6 40.2 40.0 40.0 Given the favourable base effect because of nationwide lockdown during last year, 2year CAGR is used to assess the state of economic activities. Source: Raildrishti.com, MOFSL, gstn.org.in, www.icegate.gov.in, CMIE, PIB, RBI, vaahan.parivahan.gov.in, *Number >50 reflects expansions and number <50 reflects contraction compared to previous month @ - May 2021 figures are preliminary data and are subject to revision. While the number of cases has moderated from the recent highs, states have extended the lockdowns for few more weeks to check the spread. The economy is likely to open in a phased manner and impact of consumer sentiments, higher health spending, etc. can result in economic revival facing some headwinds in the near term. The sectors like auto, contact intensive services, discretionary spending, etc. are likely to be impacted more than other sectors. Over time, we expect as the vaccination reaches a critical mass and restrictions are eased to a large extent, we may see recovery momentum improving. This is based on the assumption that the situation does not deteriorate significantly from hereon and things improve sequentially. Centre's fiscal deficit widened further; to remain stretched: Fiscal deficit in FY21 widened to 9.3% of fiscal deficit, close to revised estimates of 9.5%. The improvement was driven by positive surprise in revenue collections during the last quarter as strong economic recovery resulted in buoyant tax collections. Despite YoY fall in GDP, strong indirect tax collections (mainly due to auto fuel taxes and higher GST collections) led to gross tax revenue growing by ~1% YoY. While capital receipts and non-tax revenue declined, it was still better than revised estimates. Government spending increased by 30.7% led by clearance of dues on account of food and fertilisers subsidies. Further, total spending on capex also increased driven by loans to Railways and higher spend on defence and roads. FY20A FY21P Change (YoY) Gross tax revenue 20,099 20,249 0.7% Total Direct Tax 10,372 9,264 -10.7% Total Indirect Tax 9,727 10,984 12.9% Less: Share of States & others 6,540 6,008 -8.1% Net Tax collection 13,559 14,240 5.0% Non-Tax Revenue 3,262 2,081 -36.2% Total Revenue Receipts 16,821 16,321 -3.0% Total Capital Receipts 686 576 -16.0% Total Receipts 17,507 16,897 -3.5% Total Revenue Expenditures 23,496 30,864 31.4% Total Capital Expenditures 3,367 4,248 26.2% Total Expenditures 26,864 35,112 30.7% Gross Fiscal Deficit -9,356 -18,215 94.7% Fiscal Deficit as % of GDP -4.6% -9.3% Source: CMIE. P - Provisional, A – Actual, YoY – Year on Year Government estimates fiscal deficit to narrow to 6.8% in FY22 aided by normalisation of tax collections, higher divestment proceeds and lower subsidy payments.
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