Up in smoke? Asia and the Pacific The threat from climate change to human development and the environment Foreword by R K Pachauri, Ph.D, Chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change The fifth report from the Working Group on Climate Change and Development The human drama of climate change will largely be played out in Asia, where over 60 per cent of the world’s population, around four billion people, live. The latest global scientific consensus from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicates that all of Asia is very likely to warm during this century. Warming will be accompanied by less predictable and more extreme patterns of rainfall. Tropical cyclones are projected to increase in magnitude and frequency, while monsoons, around which farming systems are designed, are expected to become more temperamental in their strength and time of onset. This report asks, will global warming send Asia and the Pacific ‘up in smoke’? Contents Foreword 2 Executive summary 3 Bangladesh 13 Central Asia 24 China 30 Developed countries 35 India 39 Indonesia, the Philippines and East Timor 52 The Lower Mekong and Malaysia 68 Nepal and Pakistan 76 The Pacific islands 82 Endnotes 88 Contributing organisations 92 Photos Front cover and contents page: CAFOD; Inside front cover: Rod Harbinson/diversityphotos.com Foreword I had the privilege of writing the foreword for the firstUp in smoke report published in 2004 by a group of NGOs focusing on climate change and development. I am glad that the current volume continues in the same spirit and direction that was evident in the first. It is becoming increasingly clear that development policies and initiatives will have to include explicitly several aspects related to climate change. While going through the foreword that I wrote for the 2004 volume, I find that the concerns and priorities that I had touched on as part of that write-up, if anything, have become stronger, and the uncertainties associated with what I had stated then have been reduced significantly. Since 2004, we have recently brought out three reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report which deal with the physical- science basis of climate change; aspects of impacts, vulnerability and adaptation, as well as mitigation issues. One dominant characteristic of these reports is the significant advance that has taken place in knowledge related to climate change based on recent research that has been carried out in several parts of the globe. Unfortunately, there are still gaps which exist in several countries and regions, which require to be filled up urgently through location-specific research if we are to come up with meaningful plans and priorities for action. The reports of the IPCC Working Groups, which have been completed and released this year, shed new light on observations related to climate change in several parts of Asia as well as on projects for the future. It has become clear that Asia would see some major changes as a result of the impacts of climate change, and several of these are becoming evident already. Even more compelling are the projections of future climate change and associated impacts in Asia, which require an integration of adaptation to climate change with development policies. Required measures would include improvements in the efficiency of water use, upgrading healthcare and medical services, proper formulation and implementation of coastal zoning regulations as well as changes in agriculture, which may be affected by reduced yields of some crops. It is hoped that this volume will be read carefully by policy-makers, researchers, industry executives and members of civil society in Asia and elsewhere, to gain insights into the challenge of climate change in this region and the steps required to tackle it. R K Pachauri, Chairman, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Director General, The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) Up in smoke? Asia and the Pacific 2 Executive summary Summary and overview climate. These factors include: air and water pollution, water scarcity, and ever The human drama of climate change will largely be played out in Asia, where over 60 increasing consumption that, coupled with mass production for the global markets, per cent of the world’s population, around four billion people, live. Over half of those produces growing mountains of waste. live near the coast, making them directly vulnerable to sea-level rise. Disruption to the region’s water cycle caused by climate change also threatens the security and Natural climatic variability is hugely significant to this region, in particular the El Niño- productivity of the food systems upon which they depend. In acknowledgement, both Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Asian monsoon phenomena. Both result from of the key meetings in 2007 and 2008 to secure a global climate agreement will be in connections between the atmosphere and ocean, and have large-scale effects. Asia. Although ENSO has global impacts, it is a dominant feature of the climate in the Asia- Pacific region. During El Niño, when the Pacific Ocean warms, drought conditions in The latest global scientific consensus from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate the Indonesian Archipelago prevail, increasing the risk of forest fires. An ENSO-driven Change (IPCC) indicates that all of Asia is very likely to warm during this century. weakening and equator-ward shift of the Asian monsoon often bring summer drought Warming will be accompanied by less predictable and more extreme patterns of to northwest and central regions of India and heavy rainfall in the northeast. Climate rainfall, including droughts and more extreme inundations. Tropical cyclones are models predict that the increase in strength and magnitude of the ENSO phenomenon projected to increase in magnitude and frequency, while monsoons, around which due to global warming is likely to weaken the Asian monsoon. But the outcomes farming systems are designed, are expected to become more temperamental in their are unpredictable and some studies suggest that the retreat of Eurasian snow cover strength and time of onset. Ironically, if certain types of industrial pollution are reduced, could have the opposite effect and strengthen the monsoon. But movement in either the temporary cooling effect that results from having blankets of smog, could lead to direction puts more pressure on people to adapt. very rapid warming. But existing projections are already bad enough. There is growing consensus about the current challenges facing Asia and what is The term ‘global warming’ is misleading, however. While the greenhouse effect is needed to tackle them. Many of these are elaborated in this report. There is reason to causing an overall warming of Earth, the effects on the climate and weather are hope. There is already enough knowledge and understanding to know what the main regional. The vast expanse of the Asia-Pacific region means it includes a huge causes of climate change are, how to reduce future climate change, and how to begin diversity of climatic zones. As a result, the impacts of climate change will be equally to adapt. diverse. There are cold, densely forested regions in the north (boreal Asia), ranging to deserts in the land-locked regions of the Eurasian continent (arid and semi-arid Asia), This report looks at positive measures that are being taken – by governments, by civil temperate regions towards the east of the continent (temperate Asia) and regions rich society and by people themselves – to reduce the causes of climate change and to with fauna and flora in tropical Asia. Among these, the arid and semi-arid regions of overcome its effects. It gives examples of emissions reduction; alternative water and Asia are set to suffer further shortages and water stress, while tropical, temperate and energy supply systems; preservation of strategic ecosystems and protected areas; boreal Asia are likely to experience an increase in flooding. increasing capacity, awareness and skills for risk and disaster management; and the employment of effective regulatory and policy instruments. The challenge is clear and The Pacific islands, which are scattered across thousands of square kilometres many of the solutions are known: the point is, to act. In October 2004, Up in smoke? of ocean, are mainly located in the tropics. Many Pacific countries are clusters of – the first report from the UK’s Working Group on Climate change and Development – numerous low-lying atolls and islands, with tropical forest cover, mangroves and palm- created a united call for action from environment and development groups, identifying lined beaches. Rising sea levels due to thermal expansion of ocean water and melting three overarching challenges: glaciers and polar ice caps mean that some communities living on these islands have already fallen victim to the impacts of climate change. 1. How to stop and reverse further global warming. At the same time several factors contribute to an exponential rise in environmental 2. How to live with the degree of global warming that cannot be stopped. stress that, in turn, increases the vulnerability of people and ecosystems to a changing Up in smoke? Asia and the Pacific 3 3. How to design a new model for human progress and development that is climate proof and climate friendly and gives everyone a fair share of the natural resources ‘The time for words is over… If the human race has not advanced to the point on which we all depend. where we can put aside immediate self-gratification for the larger global good and our own futures, then I fear for what the world of the next ten years and Climate change in China and India thereafter will become.’ Just two nations, India and China combined, account for well over one-third of the world’s population.