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Entry Strategies in the Fast Growing Electric Vehicle Market

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Entry Strategies in the Fast Growing Electric Vehicle Market DEPARTMENT OF BUSINESS AND MANAGEMENT Chair of International Business Entry Strategies in the Fast Growing Electric Vehicle Market SUPERVISOR Professor Alessandro Marino CANDIDATE Alessandro Marana ID Nr. 675601 ASSISTANT SUPERVISOR Professor Roberto Dandi ACADEMIC YEAR 2016-2017 Contents Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 4 1. Management of Technological Innovations ..................................................................... 6 1.1 The importance of innovations ...................................................................................... 6 1.2 The importance of having a clear strategy in product innovation .............................. 6 1.3 The sources of innovation .............................................................................................. 7 1.4 The main types of innovation ......................................................................................... 8 1.5 Technology improvements ........................................................................................... 10 1.6 Innovation diffusion curves and market forecasts ..................................................... 11 1.6.1 Roger’s Diffusion model ....................................................................................... 12 1.6.2 The Technology Evolution model ........................................................................ 16 1.6.3 The Diffusion of Innovations model .................................................................... 16 1.7 Limits of Technology S-Curves ..................................................................................... 18 1.8 The importance of dominant designs .......................................................................... 18 1.9 The Importance of Network Externalities on technology value ................................ 21 1.10 Timing of entry ............................................................................................................ 22 1.11 Investment and entry strategies ................................................................................ 26 2 The EV Market, Technologies and Investment Strategies. .................................................... 30 2.1 The GHG emissions problem. .......................................................................................... 30 2.2 The technology S-curve and ICE engines .................................................................... 34 2.3 The past & actual market, and future EV market forecasts ....................................... 36 2.4 The different powertrains taken into consideration .................................................. 41 2.5 Brief summary of factors affecting EV adoption ......................................................... 43 2.5.1 EV Demand diffusion fundamental variables under Roger’s model ................... 43 2.5.2 The difficulty and importance of surpassing the Chasm ...................................... 49 2.5.3 Fundamental variables under more detail ............................................................ 52 2.5.3.1 The dealer problem ......................................................................................... 52 2.5.3.2 Network externality effects in the automotive industry .............................. 53 2.5.3.3 The chicken or egg infrastructure problem ................................................... 55 2.5.3.4 Battery cost & performance and TCO ............................................................. 56 2.6 EV market entry strategies ........................................................................................... 59 2.6.1 Scope of investments for the 2017-2021 period. .................................................. 59 2.6.2 Early entrants, early followers and laggards. ........................................................ 61 2 2.6.3 Capacity based innovation strategies .................................................................... 65 2.6.4 New market entrant strategies ............................................................................... 67 3 Testing the Established Automakers’ Electrification Commitment and Defining Entry Strategies for Different Players in the Market. ....................................................... 70 3.0 Methodology ...................................................................................................................... 70 3.1 The Tesla experience .................................................................................................... 71 3.2 OEM automaker commitment analysis ....................................................................... 74 3.2.1 BMW Group .............................................................................................................. 75 3.2.2 FCA Group ................................................................................................................ 76 3.2.3 Daimler ..................................................................................................................... 78 3.2.4 Ford .......................................................................................................................... 79 3.2.5 GM Group ................................................................................................................. 80 3.2.6 Honda ....................................................................................................................... 82 3.2.7 Hyundai Group ......................................................................................................... 84 3.2.8 Mitsubishi ................................................................................................................. 85 3.2.9 Nissan-Renault Group ............................................................................................. 86 3.2.10 PSA Group .............................................................................................................. 87 3.2.11 Toyota .................................................................................................................... 88 3.3.12 Volkswagen Group ................................................................................................ 89 3.2.13 The situation for other noticeable established automakers. ............................. 91 3.3 Looking at the aggregate level ..................................................................................... 94 3.4 Collaborate or do it yourself? ..................................................................................... 104 3.5 A non-market perspective .......................................................................................... 105 3.6 A brief comment of hydrogen fuel cell developments .............................................. 106 3.7 Looking at the actual situation and how this applies to market entry strategies. 107 3.8 The grid distribution problem and the need to upgrade the power network. ....... 110 3.9 The need for a clean energy value chain and for a wider sustainability vision. ..... 110 3.10 Recent Developments ............................................................................................... 113 Conclusion............................................................................................................................... 115 Recommendations ................................................................................................................ 119 Future studies and developments ...................................................................................... 121 Bibliography: .......................................................................................................................... 123 Appendix & Summary: .......................................................................................................... 137 3 Introduction Recent developments in regulatory emission standards in the hope of restraining the threat of global warming, turbulence in oil prices, technology innovation and especially, enhanced consumer and government interest in the green economy have brought to a reviving interest in alternative powertrain1 technologies. More precisely, after a long dormant period, current environmental concerns coupled with the search for sustainability, and most importantly the rise of new players which have boldly heavily invested in the booming “0” emission automotive sub-industry, have awakened incumbents, most of which showed a lagging situation in the electrified powertrain technology knowledge and commercialization. In front of the contingence of being disrupted by new entrants or established competitors in an evolving market with strong growth potential, incumbents are being faced with a set of contrasting strategic decisions, which will determine their competitive future path. In this context, automakers with a constrained budget have to make decisions on which technology to invest on, which to develop commercially, when to go to market and in which manner. Collaboration strategies must also be taken into consideration when analyzing entry strategies as they entail the risk of losing precious proprietary technologies and knowledge on one side, but reduce the research and development time and costs in an uncertain environment on the other side. Hence strategic decisions will have strong implications for the future evolution of the industry and its players given technology’s strong path dependence
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