Aircraft Commerce Dec 2020

53 I FREIGHT BUSINESS Many passenger 777-300ERs will soon facing their first lease renewals, but a thin secondary market means its prospects are bleak. This is good news for IAI as they develop the first -300ER cargo conversion programme to replace uneconomical freighters and meet increasing freight demand. Cannot fly diversify: Upskilling the 777-300ER for the freight market igh demand for a new have 10 more main deck pallet positions passenger service after Covid-19. That generation freighter in the than the 777-200LRF, making it well leaves 747 combination carriers in a 100-ton category with suited to the high-volume and low-density situation where their 747 freighters no Himproved cargo volume and shipments that is typically characterised by longer have commonality with their operating economics over legacy freighter e-commerce cargo. Because of the passenger fleet.” types is the main impetus behind the combination of the -300’s long fuselage The 777-300ERSF is expected to have development by Israel Aerospace Industries and long range, it will service 90% spares and tools commonality with (IAI) of a 777-300ER passenger-to- intercontinental routes, for general cargo the 777-300ER, and 90% commonality in freighter (P-to-F) conversion programme. operators and find a place with integrators maintenance tasks. The 777-300ERSF, ‘Big Twin’, P-to-F and their contract carriers by augmenting One disadvantage of the 777 freighter, programme is a joint venture between IAI and eventually replacing ageing 747-400Fs compared to the 747F, is the absence of a and its co-founder and launch customer and McDonnell Douglas MD-11Fs.” nose loading door. This is useful for heavy GECAS. To date, GECAS has committed Taking the 747-8F out of the equation, oversized cargo, such as petroleum to 15 firm orders and 15 additional because of its young age and high payload production material or drilling equipment. options for the type. US cargo operator capability, it is forecast that about 550 Although most 747-400 passenger to Kalitta Air has signed a deal for three 777- large freighters will need to be replaced freighter conversions (P-to-F) ceased years 300ERSFs to complement its existing large over the next 20 years. ago, IAI plans to convert two 747-400s for freighter fleet that includes both 777- The average age profile for the MD- customers in 2021. This is due to the 200LRF and 747-400F aircraft. 11F and 747-400F is almost 28 years. It is current circumstances, and a shortage of The 777-300ER is the largest derivative expected that most 747 freighters will cargo capacity globally, and due to large of the highly successful 777 series of remain in active service until they reach 30- numbers of passenger aircraft retirements. passenger aircraft to date. The first -300ER 35 years of age. “I believe this will be a stopgap. I was delivered to Air France in 2004, and As the 747-400 freighter fleet ages, it is would be very surprised to see further 747- so far after a total of 821 deliveries, it is the expected that the aircraft will become more 400 conversion activity once the 777- highest selling 777 variant. costly to maintain, and generally become 300ERSF becomes operational,” says Compared to the -300, the extended less economic because they have four Diamond. “There will be a higher demand range (ER) variant has a higher maximum engines against the 777’s two. IAI and for freight capacity to replace the loss of take-off weight (MTOW) and increased GECAS claim the 777-300ERSF fuel burn belly capacity during the Covid-19 fuel capacity. When it is launched in 2022, per tonne of payload is about 21% lower passenger downturn for some time to come the 777-300ERSF will be the largest twin- than the 747-400F. The additional weight after the pandemic is over. But there engine freighter in existence. of the large passenger upper deck means should be an increasing number of converted 747 freighters are the less passenger 777-300ER’s available on the efficient than the purpose built freighters market at reasonable acquisition prices, Replacements and are likely to be parked first. that would be superior candidates for The 777-300 ERSF is expected to be For combination carriers operating conversion due to their operating cost and the successor to the 747-400 series of both freighter and passenger aircraft, the efficiency advantages” freighter, which is successful and popular increasing retirements of 747-400 Post pandemic when economies begin with its operators. Moreover, the 777- passenger aircraft negate the economic to recover, air cargo demand is expected to 300ERSF has a high volumetric capacity benefits of fleet commonality, and further grow rapidly, driven by burgeoning and similar weight payload capability to exacerbates the type’s operating costs. demand for eCommerce shipments. the 777-200LRF, which is based on 777- “Since the beginning of the pandemic a Yet there is expected to be a persistent 200 platform and is 33 feet shorter. huge number of passenger 747-400s have cargo capacity shortage in the industry According to Mark Diamond, vice been parked, leaving only a handful of because passenger demand is unlikely to president, Strategic Aviation Solutions them still in operation,” says Diamond. “It return to pre pandemic levels quickly, International: “The 777-300ERSF will is unlikely that these aircraft will re-enter leaving a shortage of cargo belly capacity. ISSUE NO. 132 • OCTOBER/NOVEMBER 2020 AIRCRAFT COMMERCE 54 I FREIGHT BUSINESS PAYLOAD WEIGHT SPECIFICATIONS & PAYLOAD CHARACTERISTICS OF MD11F, 777 & 747-400 FREIGHTERS Aircraft type MD-11F 777-200LRF 777-300ERSF 747-400BDSF MTOW - lbs 630,500 766,800 775,000 870,000 MZFW - lbs 461,300 547,000 558,000 610,000 OEW - lbs 259,260 318,300 336,000 358,000 Gross structural payload - lbs 202,040 228,700 222,000 252,000 Main deck volume - cu.ft 19,734 19,008 23,232 21,412 Main deck pallets 26 AMD 27 AMX 33 AMX 21 M1H Main deck tare - lbs 17,472 17,145 20,955 19,554 Lower deck bulk - cu.ft 600 600 Lower deck pallets 16 LD6 10 PMC 96x125 14 PMC 96x125 32 LD1 Lower deck tare - lbs 5,680 2,000 2,800 5,760 Lower deck volume - cu.ft 5,024 4,700 6,340 5,600 Total volume - cu.ft 24,758 23,708 29,572 27,012 Total tare - lbs 23,152 19,145 23,755 25,314 Net structural payload - lbs 178,888 209,555 198,245 226,686 Max revenue packing density - lbs/cu.ft 7.23 8.84 6.70 8.39 Volumetric payload @ 6.5lbs/cu.ft 160,927 154,102 192,218 175,578 Volumetric payload @ 7.5lbs/cu.ft 178,888 177,810 198,245 202,590 Volumetric payload @ 8.5lbs/cu.ft 178,888 209,191 198,245 226,686 524,000lbs to 529,000lbs, where the IAI 7.5lbs, but on a on a flight-by-flight basis, 777-300ERSF specifications version increased it to 558,000lbs. Using a it could be 8.5lbs, or it could be 6.5lbs.” The 777-300ERSF will have a feedstock aircraft with an operating empty “When you look at the carrying maximum structural payload of about 100 weight (OEW) of 336,000lbs and an different loading scenarios, for example, metric tons and a corresponding 4,600nm MZFW of 529,000lbs will give the 80% express and 20% general cargo, you range. assessment aircraft a gross structural get a better understanding of the aircraft’s It is expected that the 777-300ERSF payload of 193,000lbs: 29,000lbs less than capabilities. When we reviewed the 777- will develop traction within the integrator the -300ERSF. 300ERSF, it competes very well against and consolidator markets, including It is believed that once the IAI aircraft other aircraft in this segment,” adds eCommerce and express freight. The 777- has been developed at its stated weights, Greener. 300ERSF has a main deck volume of then any subsequent configuration The cargo running loads of the 777- 23,232 cu ft and a lower deck volume of assessment will have an MZFW reflective 300ERSF are expected to match those of 6,340 cu ft (see table, this page). The 777- of the IAI conversion. the 777-200LRF. 300ERSF’s main deck can be configured to A number of compelling arguments Over the past five years, e-commerce carry 33 96 X 125 AMX containers, which indicate that a freight aircraft operating at revenue has increased by $2 trillion, and is is six more than the 777-200LRFs. The low eCommerce revenue packing densities expect to grow to $3 trillion over the next converted freighter’s belly hold can be will not need a high gross structural four years. It is this high level of growth configured to carry 14 96 x 125 PMC or payload requirement, asking whether that is expected to be a key driver of air 44 LD-3 containers. This is four PMCs and significantly increasing the MZFW is cargo or cargo demand, especially in the 12 LD-3s more than the 777-200LRF. necessary. On the other hand, a high express segment of the market. As the 777-300ERSF is volumetrically MZFW and gross structural payload will larger and can carry more pallets and give the freight operator more operational containers than the 777-200LRF, its tare flexibility, as well as increasing Feedstock values load is higher. When both aircraft are marketability for the lessor. 777-300ER values are diminishing, but configured with 96 X 125 pallets on the eCommerce has been identified as a are not in a wholesale freefall.

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