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An Evaluation of the Corporation for the Promotion of Rifle Practice and Firearms Safety

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An Evaluation of the Corporation for the Promotion of Rifle Practice and Firearms Safety C O R P O R A T I O N An Evaluation of the Corporation for the Promotion of Rifle Practice and Firearms Safety Paul W. Mayberry, Vikram Kilambi, Brian Briscombe, Heather Krull, Michelle D. Ziegler, Michael L. Hansen, Jaime L. Hastings, Karen Lee For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR2568 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-1-9774-0198-4 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2019 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface This report documents research and analysis conducted as part of a project entitled Evaluation of the Corporation for the Promotion of Rifle Practice and Firearms Safety (CPRPFS), sponsored by the Administrative Assistant to the Secretary of the Army. The purpose of the project was to provide Army leadership with an evaluation of the CPRPFS that includes an assessment of the costs and benefits of the Civilian Marks- manship Program to the Army, along with the costs and profits associated with the transfer of excess pistols to the CPRPFS. The Project Unique Identification Code (PUIC) for the project that produced this document is RAN187788. This research was conducted within RAND Arroyo Center’s Personnel, Train- ing, and Health Program. RAND Arroyo Center, part of the RAND Corporation, is a federally funded research and development center (FFRDC) sponsored by the United States Army. RAND operates under a “Federal-Wide Assurance” (FWA00003425) and com- plies with the Code of Federal Regulations for the Protection of Human Subjects Under United States Law (45 CFR 46), also known as “the Common Rule,” as well as with the implementation guidance set forth in DoD Instruction 3216.02. As applicable, this compliance includes reviews and approvals by RAND’s Institutional Review Board (the Human Subjects Protection Committee) and by the U.S. Army. The views of sources utilized in this study are solely their own and do not represent the official policy or position of DoD or the U.S. Government. iii Contents Preface ................................................................................................. iii Figures .................................................................................................vii Tables .................................................................................................. ix Summary .............................................................................................xiii Acknowledgments ................................................................................ xxiii Abbreviations ....................................................................................... xxv CHAPTER ONE Introduction ........................................................................................... 1 Background ............................................................................................. 1 Objective and Approach ............................................................................... 4 Timing Issues ........................................................................................... 5 Organization of This Report ......................................................................... 5 CHAPTER TWO Assessing the Effectiveness of the Civilian Marksmanship Program ....................... 7 Statutory Specification of Civilian Marksmanship Program Functions ......................... 8 Analytical Specification of Civilian Marksmanship Program Functions Through Logic Models .............................................................................................10 Data Collection .......................................................................................13 Civilian Marksmanship Program Activities and Measurement Results Across Functions ...14 Observations .......................................................................................... 38 CHAPTER THREE Comparing the Civilian Marksmanship Program with Similar Organizations .........39 Shooting Sports in the United States ...............................................................39 Selection Criteria and Identification of Comparable Organizations ........................... 42 Data Collection....................................................................................... 43 Results ................................................................................................. 46 Observations .......................................................................................... 64 v vi An Evaluation of the Corporation for the Promotion of Rifle Practice and Firearms Safety CHAPTER FOUR Evaluating the Benefits and Costs of the Civilian Marksmanship Program to the U.S. Army ........................................................................................67 General Methodological Approach ................................................................ 68 Benefits and Costs Analysis Results ................................................................70 Observations ......................................................................................... 101 CHAPTER FIVE Assessing Civilian Marksmanship Program Funding Models: Current and Prospective ..................................................................................... 105 Findings from Activity 1: Analysis of the Civilian Marksmanship Program’s Financial Data .............................................................................................. 106 Findings from Activity 2: Identifying Nonprofit Funding Models ........................... 111 Findings from Activity 3: Other Options for Generating Revenue ........................... 117 Observations ......................................................................................... 122 CHAPTER SIX Assessing Financial Aspects of Transferring M1911/M1911A1 Pistols .................. 123 Underlying Factors Driving the Costs and Profits of M1911/M1911A1 Pistol Sales ........ 123 Analysis of M1911/M1911A1 Program Costs and Profits ...................................... 130 Observations ......................................................................................... 138 CHAPTER SEVEN Conclusion .......................................................................................... 141 Task 1: Assess the Effectiveness of the Civilian Marksmanship Program .................... 141 Task 2: Compare the Civilian Marksmanship Program with Similar Organizations ...... 143 Task 3: Evaluate the Benefits That the Army Receives from the Civilian Marksmanship Program Relative to Resources That the Army Provides ............... 144 Task 4: Assess the Civilian Marksmanship Program’s Current Funding Model and Prospective Funding Models That Would Support the Program’s Transition to Self-Sustainment ............................................................................... 145 Task 5: Assess Costs and Profits Associated with the Transfer of Excess Firearms from the Army to the Civilian Marksmanship Program with Respect to Surplus Caliber .45 M1911/M1911A1 Pistols......................................................... 146 APPENDIX Detailed Information Supporting Prior Referenced Information ........................ 147 References .......................................................................................... 173 Figures 2.1. Specifications of CMP Functions ......................................................10 2.2. Locations of CMP Affiliates........................................................... 20 2.3. Location of CMP Youth Affiliates ....................................................21 3.1. Total Assets of Comparable Organizations by Year .................................51 5.1. CMP Revenues, Expenses, and Profits/Losses, FYs 2013–2017 ................. 106 5.2. CMP Revenues (Including Interest and Gains on Investments), Expenses, and Profits/Losses, FYs 2013–2017 .................................................. 107 5.3. Categories of Revenues and Expenses, FY 2017 ................................... 108 5.4. Categories of Revenues and Expenses, Including Surplus and Non-Surplus Sales, FY 2017 .......................................................................... 109 5.5. CMP Revenues, Expenses, and Profits and Losses, Including Interest and Gains on Investments, Excluding Surplus Sales, FYs 2013–2017 ................ 110 5.6. CMP Revenues, Expenses, and Profits and Losses, Excluding Interest, Gains on Investments,
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