From Drought to Flood – Operational Issues and Challenges of ’s Recent 5-Year Drought

Jonathan Frye , PE, CFM Engineering Manager Santa Barbara County Flood Control District

Santa Barbara County FCD FMA Conference – Sept. 2017 1 of 11 The Media - Winter Forecasts  NWS clearly qualifies and explains their long term winter outlooks.  Winter forecasts often misinterpreted by the media and public agencies  Example: NOAA NWS fall 2015 prediction of 50-60% of greater-than- Normal Rainfall vs the NOAA CPC prediction of 90% chance of El Nino.

NWS Winter Outlook - Fall 2015 Media Reporting - Fall 2015

Santa Barbara County FCD FMA Conference – Sept. 2017 2 of 11 Forecast Misunderstandings  The (2015) 90% chance of El Nino is often assumed synonymous with the ~60% chance of greater than normal rainfall (..but the former is a SST Oceanographic process, as opposed to an Atmospheric process)  Although being prepared for significant rain/flooding is good…..the downside of these misunderstandings is a lack of water conservation due to perceived imminent storms - all during a 5 year historic drought.

~70% of Normal Rainfall – Spring 2016 Continued 5-Year Historic CA Drought – May 2016

Santa Barbara County FCD FMA Conference – Sept. 2017 3 of 11 SB County FCD Annual Preparations  Each winter Santa Barbara County FCD preparations are typically the same regardless of winter weather outlook predictions  Long term winter forecasts are of value, but forecast variability & prudent FCD practices warrant consistent & comprehensive seasonal preparations.  Recent case in point is the highly anticipated 2015-16 (El Nino) year that ended drier-than-normal (in SoCal), and the wetter than normal 2016-17

SB County Flood Control Preparations

Santa Barbara County FCD FMA Conference – Sept. 2017 4 of 11 Pre-winter Coordination Meetings

 California Department of Water Resources – Flood Management (Sept. 26, 2017)  USACE Twitchell Reservoir Flood Coordination Meeting (Aug 17, 2017)  NWS Winter Outlook & Hydrology Coordination (Oct. 3, 2017)  USBR Santa Ynez River Flood Modeling Meeting (Oct/Nov 2017)  Santa Barbara County FCD Pre-Winter Procedures, Processes, and Safety Coordination. (Sept 2017)

COSB-FCD CA-DWR NOAA-NWS USBR USACE

Santa Barbara County FCD FMA Conference – Sept. 2017 5 of 11 SB County Burn Area Preparations  Large scale burn areas experienced within recent years may require additional flood control preparations for downstream resource protection. (Maintenance, Debris Racks, Gauges, Hydro-mulch)  2016 Burn Areas (, )  2017 Burn Areas (, )

Whittier Burn Area - 2017 Burn Areas x 5 – 2016 & 2017

Santa Barbara County FCD FMA Conference – Sept. 2017 6 of 11 Burn Area Gauge Operations  SB County FCD has ~85 automated network gauges.  Burn areas are assessed for suitability for a new gauge, or replacement of a recently burned gauge.  Gauge installations are coordinated with the USFS Baer team, NWS, and USGS  Rainfall intensity alarm notification criteria established for susceptible burn areas.

Whittier Fire – replacement of Whittier Fire above Lake Cachuma burned rain gauge Santa Barbara County FCD FMA Conference – Sept. 2017 7 of 11 Lake Cachuma  Santa Barbara County’s Largest Water Supply Reservoir (~190k ac.ft.)  Capacity low of 7% in 2016 to 51% in 2017

Lake Cachuma (Dec 2016) – 7% Capacity Lake Cachuma (April 2017) – 51% Capacity

Santa Barbara County FCD FMA Conference – Sept. 2017 8 of 11 Lake Cachuma

Santa Barbara County FCD FMA Conference – Sept. 2017 9 of 11 Lake Cachuma (Time-lapse Video - 2013 to 2017)

Santa Barbara County FCD FMA Conference – Sept. 2017 10 of 11 Thank You

Jonathan Frye , PE, CFM Engineering Manager Santa Barbara County Flood Control District

Santa Barbara County FCD FMA Conference – Sept. 2017 11 of 11