Trading Risk Awards 2010
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capacity Large capacity is something that Tokio Millennium Re is known for. But we also believe that capacity is more than a financial measure. We have capacity in many additional ways: capacity to understand your business; capacity to anticipate your changing demands; capacity to provide intelligent, affordable solutions. These qualities ensure that your insurance needs are met and fulfilled, each and every time. Financial Str ength Rating A M BEST A+ Superior Standard & Poor’s rating: AA A.M. Best rating: A+ (Superior) TOKI16954 - A4 ADS_v2.indd 2 5/29/08 9:38:46 AM t R editor’s letter 03 Coming back stronger… Dear Reader, Like a knuckle-headed, brutish boxer raining blow after crunching blow on the face of an ill-matched opponent, the financial crisis pummelled the global economy in 2009. And, although the convergence sector caught a few glancing blows, it demonstrated its flexibility, strength and agility by rolling with the punches and coming back off the ropes to fight another round. Over the past year, the trading risk market has had to absorb the withdrawal of a swathe of investors, a benign natural catastrophe year which stalled cat futures trading, credit contagion and a slow return to new issuance as sponsors sheltered in a soft reinsurance market. But, by rallying as a market, tackling the problems highlighted by the collapse of Lehman Brothers, and continuing to demonstrate its limited-correlation to other financial markets, the convergence community has evolved into a yet stronger, more sophisticated and resilient sector. As Michael Millette says on page 8 of our second Annual Review, the convergence sector is equipped with the “requisite skills and discipline” to address the very different world which is emerging from the financial crisis Volatility is onmipresent – in macroeconomic trends such as interest rates, inflation and currency, but also in the future of litigation, climate change and life expectancy – and the trading risk sector can turn these uncertainties to its advantage. But – if you’ll allow me to stretch the metaphor yet further – the fight is far from over, as even the briefest of glances in this Annual Review will reveal. While there is a genuine admiration for the market’s progress in 2009, there are still uncertainties to resolve and breakthroughs to achieve if the trading risk sector is to stand as an equal to the traditional reinsurance market. These are discussed at length and over the next 50 pages. Has, for example, the convergence market proved itself as a worthy capital complement to reinsurance? How much growth potential is there in longevity risk? Will we ever see the tipping point reached in dynamically trading risk rather than the buy-and-hold approach that currently dominates? What steps are needed to achieve adequate transparency and disclosure in insurance-linked trades? And talking of progress, Trading Risk has also continued to evolve in 2009. Our annual New York conference in October was a huge success, with almost 200 market luminaries joining for lively debate on the convergence issues du jour – see page 18 for a reminder. By reading the highlights of our first roundtable (in a supplement available now), you will have as strong an understanding of the underlying trends that will shape the trading risk market in 2010 as anyone else. The success of our inaugural Trading Risk Awards in 2009 was a particular highlight – providing a platform to reward excellence and achievement in our market. I hope that you will continue to support the Awards in 2010 by submitting your entry and nominations before the 31 March deadline. So, as the bell rings to usher in a new year, it is impossible to predict exactly what 2010 will bring, but if the past is any indicator, it will be an exciting one for the sector. Here’s to a fruitful year ahead. Rebecca Bole, Editor www.trading-risk.com 2009 Review; 2010 Preview 04 tR contents 2009 review; 2010 Preview 03 Editor’s letter Risk 06 ILS analysis 08 Viewpoint Editor Rebecca Bole Goldman Sachs’ Michael Millette looks at convergence opportunities out [email protected] of economic adversity Managing Editor 10 Back to strength Jerry Frank [email protected] Swiss Re’s Martin Bisping analyses 2009 14 Life ILS analysis Art Director Paul Sargent 15 Longevity swap case study [email protected] Towers Perrin Capital Market’s Ernest Eng walks us through the Sub-Editor Aviva-RBS longevity swap Peter Williams [email protected] 16 Craig Hupper interview Transatlantic Re’s director of risk management shares his perspective on Head of Events convergence Cathy Turner [email protected] 18 Trading Risk in New York Marketing Manager Market luminaries discuss pricing, transparency and more… Amber Bates 22 Industry loss [email protected] PCS’ Gary Kerney explains that it takes time to get insured property loss Sales Director Spencer Halladey estimates right [email protected] 25 Saluting excellence Sales Executive Trading Risk Awards 2010 headline sponsor Credit Suisse Asset Rob Hughes [email protected] Management applauds the market on its resilience Business Development 28 Derivatives Director not out of puff yet… Tyrone Francis [email protected] 30 Industry loss warranties The ILW market provides a pool of vital capacity, Willis Re’s Henry Marketing Executive, Subscriptions and Events Kingham argues Aimee Pitt 33 Transparency [email protected] Elementum Advisor’s Tony Rettino outlines the benefits of disclosure Publishing Editor 34 Cat bonds Peter Hastie [email protected] ILS structures have undergone a make-over since Lehman’s collapse. Sidley Austin’s Michael Pinsel and Michael Madigan scrutinise… Printing Buckley Deane Wakefield 38 Ratings viewpoint S&P’s Cameron Heath shares the ratings agency view on recent Published by: Insider Publishing Ltd, innovations Asia House, 31-33 Lime St, 40 Investors London EC3M 7HT, UK. Tel Main: +44 (0)20 7397 0615 A new breed of insurance-linked investor emerges from the Editorial: +44 (0)20 7397 0618 financial crisis Subscriptions: +44 (0)20 7397 0619 42 Life investments Fax: +44 (0)20 7397 0616 e-mail: [email protected] Credit Suisse’s Niklaus Hilti and Marcel Grandi check the vital signs of the 2009 Insider Publishing Ltd. life insurance investment market All rights reserved. 44 Sidecars The post-Katrina sidecar structure is dead, but the vehicles continue to Trading Risk, the sister publication of tick over. Aon Benfield’s Des Potter looks under the hood… 48 Reinsurance report Subscription enquiries Analysis on reinsurer capital strength and the 2009 loss year Annie Lightholder 50 Deal directory Tel +44 (0)20 7397 0619 Comprehensive list of 2009 ILS deals and 2010 maturities Fax +44 (0)20 7397 0616 [email protected] 2009 Review; 2010 Preview www.trading-risk.com t R contents 05 40 08 44 30 16 www.trading-risk.com 2009 Review; 2010 Preview 06 tR ils An even keel A late push took 2009 issuance to $3.5bn, but as our Annual Review Subsequently, tranches of two of highlights, this ship needs a fair wind for growth in 2010… those bonds – representing $350mn of Allstate’s Willow Re and Aspen’s 009 was an excellent year for However, Swiss Re noted that the Ajax Re – defaulted on their interest 2natural catastrophe ILS, riding anticipated $3.5bn of new issuance payments this year (see table right), out the squalls and riptides of the would merely offset the $3.7bn of sending the sector into its second financial crisis to emerge into the cat bonds maturing in 2009 – leaving ever quarterly loss, according to faint sunlight with rudder and sails the sector in a static net position in Lane Financial research. intact – ready to sail into a stronger terms of outstanding ILS capacity. This, combined with the higher 2010. And with an estimated $5.1bn cost of investor capital during the A combination of a strong and of maturities expected in 2010 credit crisis, meant that new cat liquid secondary market, limited (see page 50), the ILS market bonds were deeply scrutinised credit contagion and natural will need a steady flow of new by the market in 2009 for signals catastrophe losses, improved issuance – requiring the continued of fresh structural and pricing collateral structures and a core commitment of sponsors and benchmarks for the ILS sector. dedicated ILS investor base was investors alike – to return to Spreads widened considerably – sufficient to see the market emerge absolute market growth. by around 25 percent, according to from the crisis in robust shape, with industry experts – and a series of issuance exceeding 2008 levels. r unning repairs new collateral structures attempted New cat bond capacity was The year was kick-started in to reach the holy grail of a credit predicted to reach $3.5bn for the full February with the closure of SCOR’s risk-free cat bond (see table right). year, although two deals – with an $200mn Atlas V cat bond, marking Early in the year, transactions estimated notional value of $375mn the end of a six-month issuance including Atlas V took advantage – were not closed at time of going drought caused by the wider of the US government’s Temporary to press (see table right). And a record financial market turmoil. Liquidity Guarantee Program, breaking 10 of these transactions In late 2008 four cat bonds with supported by the Federal Deposit – those closed at mid-December collateral guaranteed by Lehman Insurance Corporation as a means – increased in size during the Brothers were downgraded of guaranteeing returns on cat marketing phase, evincing strong by Standard & Poor’s (S&P) bond collateral. However, due to investor demand for the product. following the bank’s bankruptcy. the finite nature of this programme, 2009 Review; 2010 Preview www.trading-risk.com t R ILS 07 2009 cat bond issuance and collateral features alternatives were needed.