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The Aon Benfield Aggregate Aon Benfield Analytics | Market Analysis The Aon Benfield Aggregate Results for the year ended December 31, 2014 Risk. Reinsurance. Human Resources. Table of Contents Global Reinsurer Capital ................................................................................................... 3 Executive Summary .......................................................................................................... 4 ABA Capital ...................................................................................................................... 5 Capital Development ......................................................................................................... 5 Capital Management .......................................................................................................... 6 Premium Income .............................................................................................................. 8 Earnings .........................................................................................................................12 Underwriting Performance ............................................................................................... 13 Investment Results ........................................................................................................... 15 Net Income ...................................................................................................................... 16 Return on Equity .............................................................................................................. 17 ABA Business Model Evolution ........................................................................................ 19 Who Are The New Investors? ........................................................................................... 19 How Is New Money Being Deployed? .............................................................................. 19 Implications for ‘Traditional’ Reinsurers ............................................................................ 19 How Are The ABA Companies Responding? ..................................................................... 19 Mergers & Acquisitions ................................................................................................... 21 ABA Valuation ................................................................................................................22 Financial Strength Ratings .............................................................................................. 23 Appendix 1: ABA Data .................................................................................................... 24 2 The Aon Benfield Aggregate – Results for the year ended December 31, 2014 Global Reinsurer Capital Aon Benfield estimates that global reinsurer capital totaled USD575 billion at the end of 2014, an increase of 6% over the course of the year. This calculation is a broad measure of capital available for insurers to trade risk with and includes both traditional and alternative forms of reinsurer capital. Exhibit 1: Global Reinsurer Capital 700 Traditional Capital 575 600 Alternative Capital 540 Global Reinsurer Capital 505 470 6% 500 455 410 7% 400 11% 385 -3% 400 340 18% 6% -17% 18% 511 300 490 466 447 428 USD (billions) USD 200 368 388 378 321 100 22 22 50 64 0 17 19 24 28 39 FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 Source: Company reports, Aon Benfield Analytics Traditional capital rose by 4% to USD511 billion. Major insurers and reinsurers generally maintained their solid operating performance during 2014, aided by below average insured catastrophe losses, economic recovery in the United States, exposure growth in emerging markets and relatively stable capital market conditions. Retained earnings were bolstered by unrealized gains on bond portfolios, driven in particular by lower yields in the eurozone, providing a boost to reported capital positions. Alternative capital continued its strong growth, rising by 28% to USD64 billion in 2014. This was reflected in record levels of catastrophe bond issuance, expansion of fully collateralized placements, the establishment of new sidecar vehicles and the exploration of alternative business models by hedge fund managers. Evolution of the ABA Aon Benfield Aggregate (ABA) reports are produced on a half-yearly basis and cover the reported results of 31 major reinsurers worldwide, with the aim of identifying current trends in the P&C reinsurance marketplace. The study comprises 29 publicly-listed holding companies (‘the listed ABA’) and two US-domiciled subsidiaries of Berkshire Hathaway, namely National Indemnity Company (NICO) and General Reinsurance Corporation (Gen Re). NICO’s 2014 results were significanty impacted by intra-group transactions involving GEICO. To provide a more meaningful picture of the sector’s underlying performance, many of the charts and ratios used in this report focus on the listed ABA. Platinum was acquired by RenaissanceRe effective March 2, 2015 and therefore will not feature in future editions. Aon Benfield Analytics | Market Analysis 3 Executive Summary Reinsurance industry capital continues to build, with Underwriting performance remains strong, given low material alternative capital growth. global catastrophe losses. Aon Benfield estimates that global reinsurer capital rose by 6% The combined ratio of the listed ABA improved by 0.3 to USD575 billion in 2014, including a 28% increase in percentage points to 89.9% in 2014. P&C underwriting profit alternative capital to USD64 billion. rose by 6% to USD16.8 billion. The shareholders' funds of the 31 ABA companies rose by 2% The attritional loss and expense ratios were impacted by to USD346 billion, driven by net income of USD38.5 billion weakening pricing and increased volumes of longer tail and unrealized gains of USD8.1 billion. proportional business. Alternative capital has driven catastrophe risk transfer Investment returns have been resilient, despite the costs down. impact of low interest rates. Reinsurers are incorporating material alternative capital The listed ABA reported a 2% increase in ordinary investment (through ILS, sidecars, and asset management mandates) to income to USD26.5 billion in 2014, driven by underlying asset lower their cost of underwriting capital. growth and portfolio repositioning. Dividends and share buybacks rose by 18% to USD18.3 billion Headline return on equity has been stable at around in 2014. This was equivalent to 8.0% of opening capital, up 11% for the last three years. from 6.4% in 2013. Across the listed ABA, net income attributable to common Premium growth is being achieved, despite difficult shareholders rose by 4% to USD25.5 billion in 2014. market conditions. Sector consolidation is underway as companies look to Property and casualty (P&C) premiums written by the 29 achieve the advantages of scale and diversification. listed ABA companies rose by 2% to USD198 billion in 2014. Three recently announced M&A transactions between ABA Reinsurance volume was unchanged at USD89 billion, despite companies will reduce the number of entities in the study. the industry’s pricing pressure. 4 The Aon Benfield Aggregate – Results for the year ended December 31, 2014 ABA Capital The reported shareholders’ funds of the 31 ABA companies stood at USD346 billion at December 31, 2014, an increase of 2% or USD9 billion over the course of the year. The total for the listed ABA was USD240 billion, an increase of 5% or USD11 billion. Exhibit 2: ABA Shareholders’ Funds 400 337 346 NICO & Gen Re Listed ABA Total ABA 317 283 278 2% 300 6% 109 106 242 12% 90 226 2% 201 15% 78 79 187 48 200 45 12% 29% 44 -17% 37 USD (billions) USD 227 229 240 100 180 193 200 204 157 151 0 FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 Source: Company reports, Aon Benfield Market Analysis Capital Development The drivers of ABA capital growth were net income of USD38.5 billion and unrealized investment gains of USD8.1 billion. These positive factors were partly offset by dividends of USD13.8 billion, share buybacks of USD8.5 billion, foreign exchange losses of USD8.2 billion and a net reduction in issued capital of USD5.2 billion. The latter was driven by a USD7.1 billion transfer of subsidiary interests from NICO to Berkshire Hathaway. Exhibit 3: ABA Shareholders’ Funds Development 375 38.5 -8.2 8.1 -8.5 -13.8 -2.8 350 345.5 337.4 -5.2 325 USD (billions) USD 300 FY 2013 Additional Net FX Investment Share Dividends Other FY 2014 SHF capital income gains buybacks SHF Source: Company reports, Aon Benfield Market Analysis Aon Benfield Analytics | Market Analysis 5 Between them, NICO and Gen Re reported USD106 billion of shareholders’ funds at December 31, 2014, representing 31% of the ABA total. On a combined basis, Munich Re, Swiss Re and ACE contributed USD102 billion or 30%. More than half of the ABA companies reported shareholders’ funds in excess of USD5 billion, while five remained below USD2 billion. Exhibit 4: Shareholders’ Funds at December 31, 2014 100 90 8040 70 6030 50 4020 30 2010 10 USD (billions) USD 0 Source: Company reports, Aon Benfield Market Analysis All but five ABA companies reported capital growth in 2014, mainly driven by retained earnings. Unrealized gains taken directly to equity impacted outcomes at Hannover Re (USD0.8 billion), Mapfre (USD0.9 billion), Munich Re (USD3.5 billion), Swiss Re (USD3.8 billion) and XL (USD1.2 billion). NICO’s capital fell by 3% to USD94 billion, driven by a USD7.1
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