Chapter 1. Development and Innovation in Japan
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Part I The Opening of a New Era in Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Administration through Innovation Section 1 The Environment and Socioeconomic Situation Surrounding Japan I Chapter 1 Chapter 1 Development and Innovation in Japan Based on the premises of discussions to follow in Chapter 2 and later sections, Chapter 1, “Development and Innovation Development and Innovation in Japan in Japan,” looks at the importance of innovation-driven economic growth, with an awareness of the difficult circumstances of the Japanese economy and the challenges it faces. Japan is an “advanced nation” when it comes to facing a variety of challenges, including a falling birthrate and aging population as well as a severe fiscal situation. Given that background, Section 1, “The Environment and Socioeconomic Situation Surrounding Japan,” outlines the need for innovation and the fact that, if this need is taken in a positive way, it is a chance for innovation-driven progress and development. Next, Section 2, “The State of Innovation in Japan,” reviews Japan’s innovation policy to date and Japan’s strengths and weaknesses with regard to innovation, focusing on the Basic Act on Science and Technology and the Science and Technology Basic Plan. Section 3, “The History of Innovation,” first looks at the Industrial Revolution as an example that brought major chang- es in living, the economy, and society. It then surveys the history of development in the field of transportation, which is deeply relevant to the fields of land, infrastructure, transport, and tourism. It then looks back on the history of the diverse cases of innovation in the world in recent years and cases of innovation that were advanced by Japan. Section 1 The Environment and Socioeconomic Situation Surrounding Japan 1 Japan’s Socioeconomic Situationx (1) An Aging Society with a Declining Birthrate and Population Decline As its birthrate declines and its population ages, Japan’s total population has been falling, after peaking in 2008, with the productive-age population also decreasing after peaking in 1995. According to a projection by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (median projection for birth/death), the total population is projected to decline to 88,080,000 in 2065, with the productive-age population (15 – 64 years of age) projected to decline to 45,290,000 in 2065 (Figure 1-1-1). 2 WHITE PAPER ON LAND, INFRASTRUCTURE, TRANSPORT AND TOURISM IN JAPAN 2017 Section 1 The Environment and Socioeconomic Situation Surrounding Japan Figure 1-1-1 Trend in Japan’s Population (1,000 people) (%) I 140,000 80.0 Actual Future estimates Chapter 1 70.0 120,000 33,465 60.0 100,000 60.7 51.4 50.0 80,000 Development and Innovation in Japan 33,810 40.0 60,000 76,289 38.4 26.6 30.0 40,000 45,291 20.0 10.2 20,000 10.0 12.6 15,887 8,975 0 0.0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065(year) Population by three age groups (aged 0-14) Population by three age groups (aged 15-64) Population by three age groups (aged 65 and over) Percentage of population by three age groups (aged 0-14) Percentage of population by three age groups (aged 15-64) Percentage of population by three age groups (aged 65 and over) (Note) Okinawa Prefecture is not included for dates up to 1970. Source) “National Census Report” by the Statistics Bureau of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (MIC) for dates up to 2010, “Basic Complete Tabulation on Population and Households of the 2015 Population Census” by Statistics Bureau of MIC for 2015 data; estimates are calculated by the MLIT from the median estimates of birth (median estimates of death) in “Japan’s future population estimates” (estimates from 2017) by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS). Looking at fields related to the Ministry of Land, Infra- Forecast of Older Workers Leaving the Figure 1-1-2 structure, Transport and Tourism, in the construction field, Construction Industry in Large Numbers workers aged 55 and older account for around a third of (age) 65~ 45.1 the approximately 3,260,000 skilled workers at construc- Approx. 60~64 34.5 1/3 tion sites (as of 2016). This is one example of the aging of 55~59 31.1 The majority will workers (Figure 1-1-2). 50~54 32.5 retire in 10 years. 45~49 40.4 Furthermore, in the face of the possibility of older work- 40~44 45.7 ers leaving the workforce in large numbers in the future, 35~39 35.1 there are concerns that a labor shortage will occur in the 30~34 25.2 25~29 19.2 medium- to long-term. Securing and training young 20~24 14.6 workers is a pressing issue. In the traffic and transportation field as well, there are 15~19 3.3 concerns over a shortage of skilled workers and the suc- 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0 (10,000 people) cession of skills in different areas such as rail, automobiles, Source) Prepared by the MLIT based on the “Labor Force Survey” by MIC shipbuilding, marine transport, ports and harbors, aviation, and logistics. In order to overcome these kinds of supply restrictions and labor shortages associated with a declining population, there is a need to increase productivity through innovation, in addition to further training workers. WHITE PAPER ON LAND, INFRASTRUCTURE, TRANSPORT AND TOURISM IN JAPAN 2017 3 Section 1 The Environment and Socioeconomic Situation Surrounding Japan (2) A Decelerating Growth Rate I GDP movement in FY2016 was solid, with positive growth rates for both nominal and real GDP. Looking at the medi- um- to long-term, the GDP growth rate in recent years has transitioned generally around 0 – 2% since the 1990s (Figure Chapter 1 1-1-3). Figure 1-1-3 Trend in Japan’s GDP (Trillion yen) 600 10 Development and Innovation in Japan 9.0 8.6 GDP (nominal) Nominal growth rate (right axis) Real growth rate (right axis) 538 532 517 8 7.2 499 500 529 526 457 6.3 6.2 6 400 3.5 3.2 4 2.6 335 2.5 2.7 2.1 300 2.9 1.3 2 252 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.2 0.9 0 200 −2 100 −4 −6 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 (scal year) Notes) Gross domestic product from “Fiscal 2009 National Accounts (2000 basis, 93SNA)” for FY1980 to FY1993 (year-on-year change: FY1981 to FY1994) and from “Quarterly Estimates of GDP for January – March 2017 (First Preliminary Estimates) (2011 basis, 08SNA)” for FY1994 (year-on-year change: FY1995) and later. Total gures for dates before FY1993 have been processed to connect them to gures with a different basis. Source) Prepared by the MLIT based on the “Annual Report on the Japanese Economy and Public Finance FY2016 (Long-term Economic Statistics, National Accounts of Japan (1/5))” by the Cabinet Ofce and “National Accounts of Japan (GDP Statistics)” by the Cabinet Ofce. (3) Substantial Progress in Science and Technology Science and technology has achieved substantial progress in a variety of fields in the 21st century. Progress in informa- tion and communications technology (ICT) has been especially remarkable, and we have entered an era where all kinds of things, including people, information, goods, and capital, are connected and affect each other instantaneously in a global environment. On the back of progress in ICT, robots and AINote 1 are now used in industry and all kinds of life situations, including in familiar products and services, and it is hoped that this will lead to improved productivity and a resolution of labor shortages. Also, advances such as IoTNote 2, which connects various kinds of information and goods through the Internet, are also taking place (Figure 1-1-4). Note 1 Articial Intelligence Note 2 Internet of Things 4 WHITE PAPER ON LAND, INFRASTRUCTURE, TRANSPORT AND TOURISM IN JAPAN 2017 Section 1 The Environment and Socioeconomic Situation Surrounding Japan Figure 1-1-4 Science and Technology Progress, Such as in ICT I (1 million units) Actual and forecast numbers of IoT devices worldwide (TB) Data ows 35,000 16,000,000 Forecast 30,398 14,524,752 Chapter 1 8 30,000 26,403 402 14,000,000 554 22,923 7 327 12,000,000 25,000 20,164 6 464 7,401 10,804,988 5 263 Approx. 9.3 in nine years 17,561 380 5,662 10,000,000 15,357 209 1,959 20,000 5 318 4,453 13,265 4 164 1,957 8,020,140 3 128 262 3,765 1,937 8,000,000 11,233 101 6,050,339 15,000 3 225 3,193 1,928 192 12,484 4,913,064 Development and Innovation in Japan 80 2,634 1,967 6,000,000 2,148 10,790 159 2,021 9,278 4,076,772 10,000 1,711 1,990 6,634 7,900 3,477,480 1,837 4,000,000 4,372 5,445 2,614,878 3,424 2,004,730 5,000 2,000,000 1,556,589 6,606 7,196 7,590 4,019 4,459 4,899 5,336 6,039 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 (Calendar year) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Estimate) Communications Consumer Computer Industrial (Calendar year) Medical Automobile Military/aerospace (Notes) 1 IHS Technology denes an IoT device as any device that has a unique IP address and can connect to the Internet.