The Perils of Proximity

The Perils of Proximity 00-0474-4 fm.indd 1 9/2/10 11:59 AM 00-0474-4 fm.indd 2 9/2/10 11:59 AM The Perils of Proximity China-Japan Security Relations Richard C. Bush Brookings Institution Press Washington, D.C. 00-0474-4 fm.indd 3 9/2/10 11:59 AM Copyright © 2010 the brookings institution 1775 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W., Washington, DC 20036 www.brookings.edu All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without permission in writing from the Brookings Institution Press. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication data Bush, Richard C., 1947– The perils of proximity : China-Japan security relations / Richard C. Bush. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. Summary: “Explores the factors underlying the security dilemma confronting Japan and China despite their positive economic interaction, including China’s growing military capability, the Japan-U.S. security alliance, and issues such as Japan’s occupation of China in the mid-twentieth century and rights in the East China Sea”—Provided by publisher. ISBN 978-0-8157-0474-4 (hardcover : alk. paper) 1. Japan—Military relations—China. 2. China—Military relations—Japan. 3. National security—Japan. 4. National security—China. I. Brookings Institution. II. Title. UA845.B88 2010 355'.03109510952—dc22 2010029382 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Printed on acid-free paper Typeset in Minion Composition by Cynthia Stock Silver Spring, Maryland Printed by R. R. Donnelley Harrisonburg, Virginia 00-0474-4 fm.indd 4 9/2/10 11:59 AM For my mentors 00-0474-4 fm.indd 5 9/2/10 11:59 AM 00-0474-4 fm.indd 6 9/2/10 11:59 AM Contents Acknowledgments ix 1 Introduction 1 2 Prologue: Japan-China Military Conflict in the 1930s 6 3 China-Japan Relations: A Brief Review 12 4 Explaining the Downturn 23 5 Navies, Air Forces, Coast Guards, and Cyber Warriors 41 6 Points of Proximity and Friction 63 7 Features of China’s and Japan’s Military Institutions 87 8 Decisionmaking in China 124 9 Decisionmaking in Japan 160 10 The Chinese Politics of PRC-Japan Relations 191 11 The Japanese Politics of PRC-Japan Relations 211 12 The Chinese and Japanese Systems under Stress 223 13 Implications for the United States 259 14 What to Do? 275 Notes 319 Index 409 vii 00-0474-4 fm.indd 7 9/2/10 11:59 AM 00-0474-4 fm.indd 8 9/2/10 11:59 AM Acknowledgments I have accumulated a large number of debts at every stage of the project that has culminated in the publication of Perils of Proximity. This brief acknowledgment does not do justice to those who have helped me, nor does it implicate them in the end result. Generous financial support came from the Smith Richardson Founda- tion, the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, and another donor who prefers to remain anonymous. Strobe Talbott, president of the Brookings Institution, Martin Indyk, director of the Foreign Policy Studies Program at Brookings, and his prede- cessor, Carlos Pascual, have all offered strong encouragement for my work. Kevin Scott, Aileen Chang, Jennifer Mason, and Jiyoung Song—my colleagues at Brookings’s Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies (CNAPS)— took on more program management responsibilities so that I would have more time for my scholarship. In addition, Jennifer was everything one could ask for in a research assistant. She worked tirelessly to track down information, translate Japanese materials, and ensure that I made sense. A series of CNAPS interns did special projects. Scholars from East Asia who have been CNAPS visiting fellows over the years provided useful insights on specific subjects. Chu Shulong, Guo Rongxing, Richard Hu Weixing, Iizuki Keiko, Iwashita Akihiro, Jin Linbo, Matsumura Masahiro, Pang Zhongying, James Tang, Taniguchi Tomohiko, Yamaji Hideki, and Yang Bojiang come especially to mind. Other colleagues at Brookings, particularly Michael O’Hanlon and Jef- frey Bader, have been a source of inspiration. Mike, along with two anonymous reviewers, offered valuable suggestions on how to improve an early draft, and I appreciate their guidance. The staff of the Foreign Policy Studies ix 00-0474-4 fm.indd 9 9/2/10 11:59 AM x Acknowledgments Program, notably Peggy Knudson, and the staff of the Brookings library have been consistently supportive. Once again, Eileen Hughes of the Brookings Institution Press was an outstanding editor. In the course of this effort I have learned a tremendous amount from scholars in China and Japan who seek to understand the security environ- ment that their respective countries confront and to clarify the choices that their governments and peoples face. Some I have had the privilege to inter- view personally, for which I am very grateful. All of them have taught me something. I have honored the desire of some of those with whom I spoke not to have their comments attributed to them. When I was doing interviews in China, the Brookings-Tsinghua Center in Beijing was especially helpful. In Japan, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs provided kind facilitation. I have also learned a great deal, both over the years and during this current project, from America’s cadre of outstanding scholarly talent on both China and Japan. The group is too large to try to name everyone, but Michael Green, Alastair Iain Johnston, Mike Mochizuki, Richard Samuels, and Michael Swaine stand out. Officials in the Chinese, Japanese, and U.S. governments have helped clarify important details. John Hill of the U.S. Department of Defense and Michael Meserve of the U.S. Department of State were especially influential. As she has for decades, my wife Marty indulged my desire to find answers to obscure questions. Finally, I would like to express my deep gratitude to the individuals who have served as my mentors during my education and professional careers. Avoiding invidious distinctions is impossible, but the following deserve special mention: Chung-do Hah (Lawrence University, 1965–69), the late Michel Oksenberg (Columbia University, 1969–74), and Andrew Nathan (Columbia University, 1972–78), who were my principal professors; Robert B. Oxnam (The Asia Society, 1977–83), Stephen J. Solarz (U.S. House of Representatives, 1983–93); and Lee Hamilton (U.S. House of Representa- tives, 1993–95). A note: in this book, I have followed the Chinese and Japanese practice of putting the family names of individuals first: for example, Koizumi Junichiro rather than Junichiro Koizumi and Hu Jintao rather than Jintao Hu. The only exceptions are for individuals who have rendered their names in West- ern fashion in a published source. 00-0474-4 fm.indd 10 9/2/10 11:59 AM 1 Introduction In U.S. security policy, as would be expected, adversaries pose the greatest challenge. Whether with respect to the Soviet Union during the cold war or Iran, North Korea, or nonstate actors today, the relative paucity of information and absence of open channels of communication make it dif- ficult to gauge the other side’s intentions and underlying motivations. The temptation to read the worst into an adversary’s capabilities and how it uses them is strong. But there is a lesser though still significant challenge. It involves groups of countries with which the United States seeks to maintain good relations but that cannot get along with one another. The enduring conflict between Israel and the Arab states is one case; the dispute between China and Taiwan is another. Here, Washington has at least two options: one is to play its friends off against each other in order to get them to exercise mutual restraint; the other is to recognize that the countries may not be able to avoid conflict and that the United States might have to intervene militarily to defend one of the parties and its own credibility. Generally, the United States has chosen to minimize the chance of conflict rather than feed it. The evolving security relationship between China and Japan creates another such dilemma for the United States. China’s power in Asia is growing, and China’s economy will soon pass Japan’s as the leading economy in Asia. Although the capabilities of Japan’s military, the Self-Defense Forces (SDF), are not trivial, those of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) are growing steadily. The PLA’s budget grows by double digits each year, while the SDF’s is essentially flat. Moreover, in China’s modernization of its military, the emphasis is on power projection: the ability of its air and naval forces to stretch their reach to the east, encroaching on Japan. Japanese 1 01-0474-4 ch1.indd 1 9/2/10 11:59 AM 2 Introduction regard the PLA’s growth and focus with deep ambivalence. How should they respond? With hopeful conciliation? With a military buildup of their own? Or—the traditional postwar answer—by relying on Japan’s alliance with the United States? Of course, current developments have a historical context. Japan invaded and occupied China in the 1930s, causing both human suffering and physi- cal devastation. More than any other country, Imperial Japan exposed and exploited China’s weakness, fostering a deep sense of victimization among the Chinese and leaving scars on the Chinese psyche. Those scars cause pain even today, as China returns to national health and its former status as a great power. In spite of joint efforts to reduce and manage tensions, China doubts that Japan will accommodate its expansion. For the Chinese, the shadow of the past darkens the future.

Load more