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A Study on the Party System in South Korea After Democratization By A Study on the Party System in South Korea after Democratization by JungHwa Lee A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (Political Science) in The University of Michigan 2016 Doctoral Committee: Professor Kenneth W. Kollman, Chair Associate Professor Allen D. Hicken Associate Professor Nojin Kwak Assistant Professor Brian K. Min © JungHwa Lee 2016 All Rights Reserved TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES ......................................................................... iv LIST OF FIGURES ....................................................................... vi LIST OF APPENDICES .............................................................. viii INTRODUCTION..............................................................................................................1 CHAPTER 1 MEASURING REGIONAL VOTING IN KOREA. ..........................16 1.1 MEASURING REGIONAL VOTING IN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS ...............................................................................................19 1.2 MEASURING REGIONAL VOTING IN LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS ...............................................................................................31 CHAPTER 2 REGIONALISM AND IDEOLOGY: MOBILIZATION INCENTIVES FOR POLITICAL ELITES. .................................................................39 2.1 CLEAVAGE MOBILIZATION BY POLITICAL PARTIES ..................39 2.2 REGIONALISM IN MASS OPINION ........................................................42 2.2.1 Social Distance between Regions ................................42 2.2.2 Experience of Regional Discrimination .......................46 2.3 THE 16TH PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION SURVEY ................................50 2.3.1 The Continuing Regional Cleavage .............................50 2.3.2 Summary of Results and Conclusions .........................61 2.4 THE VOTERS’ CHOICE IN 2002 AND 2004: REGION AND IDEOLOGY.................................................................................................62 2.4.1 The 2002 Presidential Election ....................................62 2.4.2 The 2004 National Assembly Election ........................67 2.4.3 Summary ......................................................................73 ii CHAPTER 3 ECONOMIC VOTING: MICRO LEVEL. .........................................74 3.1 ECONOMIC VOTING AND ISSUE OWNERSHIP .................................77 3.1.1 Empirical Model ..........................................................82 3.1.2 Variables and History ..................................................83 3.2 RESULTS .......................................................................................................93 3.2.1 1992 and 1997 Presidential Elections and 1996 National Assembly Election ....................................................93 3.2.2 The 2007 Presidential and 2008 National Assembly Elections ................................................................105 3.3 SUMMARY OF FINDINGS .......................................................................118 CHAPTER 4 MACRO-ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND THE VOTES. ..........128 4.1 REGIONALISM AND RETROSPECTIVE ECONOMIC VOTING ....................................................................................................128 4.2 ISSUE OWNERSHIP, REGIONAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND CHANGES IN ELECTORAL SUPPORT ....................................138 CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSION. ...................................................................................150 APPENDICES ................................................................................................................165 REFERENCES ...............................................................................................................174 iii LIST OF TABLES Table 1-1: The Number of Effective Parties in Presidential Elections in South Korea ......................................................................................................... 24 Table 1-2: The Effective Number of Parties for Presidential Elections (Regional) ................................................................................................. 26 Table 1-3: Effective Number of Parties (National Assembly Elections) .......... 33 Table 1-4: Effective Number of Legislative Parties (Regional) ....................... 35 Table 2-1: Willingness to accept someone from a particular region as a family member’s marriage partner ....................................................................... 44 Table 2-2: Social Distance Among Regions: Willingness to Marry Someone from a Particular Region (1997) ............................................................... 44 Table 2-3: Social Distance Among Regions: Willingness to Marry Someone from a Particular Region (2000) ............................................................... 45 Table 2-4: Social Distance Among Regions: Marriage of Respondent or Child (2012) ........................................................................................................ 45 Table 2-5: Description of Variables Used ........................................................ 55 Table 2-6: The Impact of Party, Region, and Party Organizations on Voting Decision Driven by Regionalism (Ordered Logit Estimation) ................. 56 Table 2-7: Evaluation of the Influence of Regionalism on Vote Given by Party Elites ......................................................................................................... 58 Table 2-8: Distribution of Respondents by Party and Region .......................... 58 iv Table 2-9: The Impact of Region, Party and the Opponent’s Strategy on Adopting Campaign Strategy in District Campaigns (Logit Estimation) ................................................................................................................... 60 Table 2-10: the 2002 Presidential Election: Rho Moo Hyun (Democratic) vs. Lee Hoi Chang (Conservative Grand National) .................................. 64 Table 2-11: The 2004 National Assembly Election:......................................... 68 Table 3-1: 1992 Presidential Election: Multinomial Logit Estimation ............. 95 Table 3-2: 1992 Presidential and 1996 National Assembly Election: Logit Estimation Kim Dae Jung (democratic) vs. Kim Young Sam (conservative) ............................................................................................ 98 Table 3-3: 1996 National Assembly Election: Multinomial Logit ................. 100 Table 3-4: 1997 Presidential Election: Multinomial Logit Estimation Kim Dae Jung (democratic) and Lee In Je (third Party) vs. Lee Hoi Chang (conservative: Baseline Outcome) .......................................................... 102 Table 3-5: 2007 Presidential and 2008 National Assembly Election: Chung Dong Young (Democratic) vs. Lee Myung Bak (Conservative) ............ 110 Table 3-6: 2008 National Assembly Election: EAI Data................................ 117 Table 3-7: 2012 National Assembly and 2012 Presidential Election: Democratic United Party (Democratic) vs. Saenuri Party (Conservative) ................................................................................................................. 122 Table 4-1: List of Elections Analyzed ............................................................ 131 Table 4-2: Economic Conditions and Party Support: ..................................... 133 Table 4-3: Changes in Economic Conditions and Party Support in the South 143 Table 4-4: Changes in Economic Conditions and Party Support ................... 145 v LIST OF FIGURES Figure 0-1: Regions and Metropolitan Areas of South Korea (Administrative Divisions) .................................................................................................. 11 Figure 1-1: Effective Number of Parties in Select Regions (Presidential Elections 1987-2012) ................................................................................ 27 Figure 1-2: Regional Concentration of Party Support over Time in Korea ...... 30 Figure 1-3: Effective Number of Parties in Select Regions (1985-2012 National Assembly Elections) ................................................................................. 36 Figure 1-4: Regional Concentration of Party Support over Time in Korea ...... 37 Figure 2-1: Average Experience of Discrimination by Home Region (1997) .. 47 Figure 2-2: Average Experience of Discrimination by Home Region (year: 2000) ......................................................................................................... 49 Figure 3-1: Genealogy of Major Korean Political Parties since 1987 (Constructed by the author based on the National Election Committee Archive and KyungHyang Daily 6-28-2012) ........................................... 87 Figure 3-2: Impact of Voter Assessment of the National Economy on Democratic Vote (95% confidence interval) .......................................... 123 Figure 3-3: Impact of Prioritizing Economic Issues (Price Stability and Economic Growth) on Democratic Vote ................................................ 124 Figure 3-4: Impact of Living in Jeolla on Democratic Vote ........................... 125 Figure 3-5: Impact of Living in Gyeongsang South on Democratic Vote ...... 126 Figure 3-6: Impact of Democratic Partisanship on Democratic Vote............. 126 Figure 5-1: Conservative Party Identifiers by Region .................................... 154 vi Figure 5-2: Democratic Party Identifiers by Region ....................................... 155 Figure 5-3: Changes
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