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Political Forecast for 2016

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Political Forecast for 2016 Political Forecast for 2016 Dr. Susan A. MacManus University of South Florida, Tampa Dept. of Govt. & Intl. Affairs Anthony Cilluffo, Georgia Pevy, David Bonanza Research Associates FSASE Canvassing Board Workshop January 14, 2016 SLIDESHOW FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY Election Dynamics in 2016 • Florida: key battleground state • 2 major statewide races: President and U.S. Senate • 3 major elections: Presidential Primary (March 15), Regular Primary (Aug. 30), General Election (Nov. 8) • 2 major national party conventions (GOP July 18-21; DEM Week of July 25) • Presidential debates in Florida • Fundraising for campaigns at all levels • Interface with national parties and PACs • Constant barrage of political-related media • New district lines—U.S. Congress, state legislature What’s Different in 2016? Voter Attitudes Trust levels Fears Tone of Candidates, Ads Heightened Activism/Protests Americans Distrustful of Govt. An Era of Protests: Peaceful & Violent “…[E]veryone with a smartphone is now a reporter, news photographer, and documentary filmmaker. It’s a wonder that every newspaper doesn’t have a ‘Protest’ section.” Thomas L. Friedman New York Times January 13, 2016 Florida’s Close!! 2010 Gov., 2012 Pres., 2014 Gov. Results Scott 48.9% Obama 50.0% Scott 48.2% Sink 47.7% Romney 49.1% Crist 47.1% Turnout Florida: Nation’s Premier Swing State What is a Swing State? Diversity • Race/ethnicity • Age • Economic • Party Affiliation Ability to Pick Winning Candidate Percent (%) 100 Voter Registration Pattern: 1972 Pattern: Registration Voter 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Nov-15 - 2015 Other Democrat Republican Racial/Ethnic Vote: FL Generations in 2016 Why Look at Generations? • Generational differences, especially in racial and ethnic composition, political preferences, and news sources, have become a major focal point of today’s campaigns. • Analyses of the two “super generations,” the Millennials and the Baby Boomers, have made it clear that successful campaigns need to micro-target women voters differently across generations, sometimes even within the same party. • Living Generations: Major Life Events, Presidents Generation Born Age (2016) Major Events Presidents* Greatest Generation/GI Before 89+ World War II, The Great Depression, The Franklin Delano Roosevelt 1928 New Deal Generation The Silent Generation 1928- 71-88 Postwar Happiness, Era of Conformity, Harry Truman and Dwight 1945 Korean War Eisenhower The Baby Boomers 1946- 52-70 Civil Rights Movement, 60s Youth John F. Kennedy, Lyndon B. Johnson, 1964 Culture—Save the World Activism, Drugs, Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, and Free Love, Vietnam War Jimmy Carter Generation X 1965- 36-51 MTV, 24-hour news, latch-key kids, Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, 1980 transition to computers, AIDS and Bill Clinton Millennials/Generation Y After 18 to 9/11, Social Media, Iraq and Afghanistan George W. Bush and Barack Obama 1980 35** conflicts, Great Recession, BP oil spill Young v. Old Voters: FL Reaching Younger Voters Gender in 2016 Pundit Prediction • “There are plenty of subplots in the unfolding [2016] presidential election, but the gender fight is among the most interesting of them—and one that will be critical to the outcome.” Charlie Cook, political analyst, National Journal, June 27, 2015 Gender Gap: FL Women in 2016 • Women candidates are becoming more effective at combatting gender stereotypes. • Virtually every major campaign now has female managers, strategists, pollsters, and consultants on board to ensure that female voters are targeted and mobilized. • Women are everywhere in media campaign coverage —as anchors, reporters, commentators, columnists, and bloggers. Media Market Definitions Margin of Victory Overall2010 GOV, 2012Turnout: PRES, 2014 GOV50% (Blue) DEM Victory (Red) REP Victory Media Markets 50 4444 45 43 40 37 35 33 30 2827 30 25 23 25 21 23 23 20 20 20 18 15 15 11 11 11 10 9 10 5 5 4 5 3 5 1 2 1 Margin of Victory in Media Market 0 A Decade of Changes to Florida’s Election System • More Uniformity • Better Protection • New Voting Equipment Against • Ballot-Testing Disenfranchisement at the Polls • Early (Convenience) • Voting Protecting the Rights of Military and Overseas • More Efficient Voter Civilians Education • Checking Voter • Centralized Voter Ineligibility Registration System Issues Important to Base: GOTV (Turnout) Mechanisms Democrats Republicans • Minimum Wage • Economy/economic development • Restoration of felon voting rights • Jobs • Income Inequality • Immigration • Medicaid expansion • Taxes/Tax Breaks & Incentives • Election processes • Government spending • Gun control/Stand Your Ground • 2nd Amendment/Gun rights • Police conduct/sentencing • Religious freedom disparities • Common Core? • Reproductive rights • Uber/Lyft • Marijuana legalization • Law Enforcement Funding • Cost of education • School choice • Environment • Fraud in registration/voting/illegals • Social Services Potential Election Controversies in 2016 • Registration • Average Wait Time in • Online Registration Line to Vote • The Voter Registration • Disabled Voters and Roll Touch Screen Voting • Absentee Ballots Machines • • Provisional Ballot Felons Waiting to Have Invalidation Their Voting Rights Restored • Early In-Person Voting • Inaccurate Public Opinion Polls Horse Race Polls Under Attack Voting Process IS Being Closely Watched in 2016 “We’ve got to make it easier to vote, not harder. We need to modernize it for the way we live now. This is America. We want to make it easier for people to participate. And over the course of this year, I intend to travel the country to push for reforms that do just that.” President Barack Obama State of the Union Address January 12, 2016 Teamwork Needed More Than Ever Neither other elected officials nor voters “think much about the resources necessary to running elections, unless something goes wrong. [Yet] there is zero tolerance for error in elections, so elections officials are constantly challenged with maintaining perfection on tighter and shrinking budgets.” Chair of the National Elections Assistance Commission (EAC) Voters Grade the 2014 Election Process (Rank Order: Strongest to Weakest) • 1. Making it convenient to vote (68%) • 2. Providing highly dependable election equipment (53%) • 3. Informing citizens about election laws and procedures (50%) USF-NIELSEN STATEWIDE SURVEY: FOCUS ON ISSUES AND POLICIES sunshinestatesurvey.org Turnout in Presidential Election Increases (Florida Data) • Presidential 2008 75% • Presidential Preference Primary 42% • Governor 2010 (midterm) 49% • Presidential 2012 72% • Presidential Preference Primary 41% • Governor 2014 (midterm) 50% Florida Presidential Election-Year Voter Turnout, 1960-2012 100 90 83% 79% 80 77% 77% 77% 74% 74% 75% 73% 74% 75% 70% 72% 70 67% 60 58% 59% 58% 56% 50 44% 43% 43% 42% 40 38% 41% 36% 33% 31% 32% 31% Percent of Voters (%) of Voters Percent 35% 29% 30 25% 26% 26% 20 18% 21% 19% 20% 10 0 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 Presidential Preference Primary First Primary General Election Sharpest Increase in Turnout in Presidential Elections • Young Voters • Minorities (African Americans; Hispanics) • Unmarried Females Convenience Voting on the Rise Source: Data available from the Florida Division of Elections. Florida Picks Winners! Expectations Going Into 2016: Close, AGAIN! Swing State! Florida Politics at Your Fingertips Florida: Nation’s Premier Swing State Florida: Nation’s Premier Swing State Florida Political Parties: Major & Minor Major Political Parties Florida Democratic Party (DEM) Republican Party of Florida (REP) Minor Political Parties America’s Party of Florida (AIP) Constitution Party of Florida (CPF) Ecology Party of Florida (ECO) Florida Socialist Workers Party (FSW) Green Party of Florida (GRE) Independence Party of Florida (IDP) Independent Party of Florida (INT) Justice Party of Florida (JPF) Libertarian Party of Florida (LPF) Party for Socialism and Liberation-Florida Peace & Freedom Party of Florida (PFP) (PSL) Tea Party of Florida (TPF) Reform Party (REF) Urban-Suburban-Rural Split .
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