Recovery in the U.S. Virgin Islands: Progress, Challenges, and Options for the Future
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Recovery in the U.S. Virgin Islands Progress, Challenges, and Options for the Future SHELLY CULBERTSON, BLAS NUÑEZ-NETO, JOIE D. ACOSTA, CYNTHIA R. COOK, ANDREW LAULAND, KRISTIN J. LEUSCHNER, SHANTHI NATARAJ, BENJAMIN LEE PRESTON, SUSAN A. RESETAR, ADAM C. RESNICK, PATRICK ROBERTS, HOWARD J. SHATZ HS AC HOMELAND SECURITY OPERATIONAL ANALYSIS CENTER An FFRDC operated by the RAND Corporation under contract with DHS rr-a282-1_cover_v12.indd All Pages 11/2/20 4:26 PM Published in 2020 Preface The U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI) are moving forward on the long road to recovery after the devastation caused by category 5 Hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017. The USVI government conducted robust response operations and has made much progress in key areas since the hurricanes, including repairing and improving infrastructure, build- ings, and services and developing planning documents and a priority list for recovery. However, recovery in the USVI has progressed at a slower pace than some other disas- ter recoveries in the United States and not as quickly as many Virgin Islanders would like. This report offers analyses and strategies to enhance the USVI’s capacity for man- aging recovery and to build the evidence base to support the implementation of the USVI’s recovery plans. As in all recoveries, the plans that are made need to be reconciled and updated to give territory authorities an opportunity for midcourse corrections. This report focuses specifically on updating recovery directions and on supporting the further develop- ment of capacities needed for implementing recovery (management, fiscal, work- force, and supply-chain capacities). In it, we consider priorities for infrastructure (e.g., infrastructure services, energy, housing, and natural resources) and the economic and social foundations of the tourism economy, education, and health. In our research, we assessed progress to date, accomplishments, the vision for recovery, challenges and gaps that pose barriers to recovery, and the crosscutting management-capacity challenges across the recovery. And we offer recommendations for steps that could mitigate barri- ers and reduce risks in the recovery process. Although this report is structured around particular sectors and topics, FEMA is not using a sector-based approach for FEMA-4340-DR-VI operations.1 In coordi- nation with the government of the USVI, a new national Public Assistance delivery model is currently in use in the USVI. The report’s research was completed before coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID- 19) changed many aspects of work and life in the United States. The pandemic has implications for the analysis in the report, but many of the issues that we identified still 1 FEMA-4340-DR-VI is the disaster declaration for Hurricane Maria in the USVI. iii iv Recovery in the U.S. Virgin Islands: Progress, Challenges, and Options for the Future have important long-term considerations. In a brief section in each chapter, we address the disease’s possible implications for recovery . The findings should be of interest to the USVI territory government, nonprofits, and private-sector leaders managing the recovery; the Federal Emergency Manage- ment Agency and other federal agencies contributing to the USVI’s recovery; engaged citizens of the territory;2 philanthropies contributing to USVI recovery; and anyone interested in the progress of recovery in the territory. It will also be of interest to people in dealing with disaster recovery elsewhere in the United States and to scholars because it highlights challenges and opportunities for recovery in a key case. This research was sponsored by the Federal Emergency Management Agency and conducted within the Recovery Cost Analysis Program of the Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center (HSOAC) federally funded research and development center (FFRDC). About the Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center The Homeland Security Act of 2002 (Section 305 of Public Law 107-296, as codified at 6 U.S.C. § 185) authorizes the Secretary of Homeland Security, acting through the Under Secretary for Science and Technology, to establish one or more FFRDCs to provide independent analysis of homeland security issues. The RAND Corporation operates HSOAC as an FFRDC for the U.S. Department of Homeland Security under contract HSHQDC-16-D-00007. The HSOAC FFRDC provides the government with independent and objective analyses and advice in core areas important to the department in support of policy development, decisionmaking, alternative approaches, and new ideas on issues of sig- nificance. The HSOAC FFRDC also works with and supports other federal, state, local, tribal, and public- and private-sector organizations that make up the homeland security enterprise. The HSOAC FFRDC’s research is undertaken by mutual con- sent with the Department of Homeland Security and is organized as a set of dis- crete tasks. This report presents the results of research and analysis conducted under task 70FBR219F00000067, United States Virgin Islands Hurricane Recovery Planning. The results presented in this report do not necessarily reflect official Department of Homeland Security opinion or policy. For more information on HSOAC, see www.rand.org/hsoac. For more informa- tion on this publication, see www.rand.org/t/RRA282-1. 2 In this report, we sometimes use terms, such as citizen or resident, that can have a legal meaning (referring to immigration status, for instance) in addition to the everyday meaning. We are using them not in the legal sense but the everyday sense. Contents Preface ................................................................................................. iii Figures ................................................................................................. ix Tables .................................................................................................xiii Boxes ...................................................................................................xv Summary ............................................................................................ xvii Acknowledgments ............................................................................... xxxiii Abbreviations .................................................................................... xxxvii CHAPTER ONE Introduction ........................................................................................... 1 The Purpose of This Report .......................................................................... 2 Background on the USVI, Hurricane Damage, and Recovery Activities to Date ............. 4 Recovery Directions and Timelines .................................................................. 6 Methodology ........................................................................................... 9 COVID-19’s Implications for USVI Recovery ....................................................11 Organization of This Report ........................................................................12 CHAPTER TWO Government Management Capacity in the U.S. Virgin Islands ............................13 Setting the Stage ......................................................................................15 Recovery Direction ...................................................................................21 Agency Management Capacity, Recovery Burden, and Progress ................................21 Key Barriers and Gaps ............................................................................... 23 Recommendations ................................................................................... 34 CHAPTER THREE Government Fiscal Capacity .......................................................................45 Setting the Stage ......................................................................................47 Recovery Direction .................................................................................. 54 Key Barriers and Gaps ............................................................................... 54 Recommendations ....................................................................................58 v vi Recovery in the U.S. Virgin Islands: Progress, Challenges, and Options for the Future CHAPTER FOUR Workforce Capacity .................................................................................65 Setting the Stage ..................................................................................... 66 Key Barriers and Gaps ................................................................................71 Recommendations ....................................................................................85 CHAPTER FIVE The Supply Chain ...................................................................................89 Setting the Stage ......................................................................................91 Recovery Directions ................................................................................. 96 Key Barriers and Gaps ............................................................................... 96 Management Capacity to Meet Recovery Needs ................................................ 105 Recommendations .................................................................................. 108 CHAPTER SIX Infrastructure Services ........................................................................... 113 Setting the Stage .................................................................................... 115 Recovery Directions