Biohackers get Safer and faster When missile to work flights defences fail TechnologyQuarterly September 6th 2014

Smartphones on wheels How the connected car goes driverless

20140906_TQ_SEPT.indd 1 26/08/2014 14:44 The Economist Technology Quarterly September 6th 2014 Monitor 1

Contents

On the cover Smartphones and other mobile-communications technology are changing the way cars are made, bought and used. As vehicles begin to talk to each other and the road around them, a driverless future comes closer, page 12

Monitor Biohackers of the world, unite 1 Biohackers organise, medical-technology startups, heating people rather than buildings, the language of the internet of things, and suspended animation Difference engine The DIYbio movement: Following the example of maker communities 6 Where gadgets go to die worldwide, hobbyists keen on biology have started to get together A mountain of electronic waste T LOOKS like an experimental cooking beliefthat “biology is technology” (to needs responsible recycling Iclass as participants taste a green pow- quote the title ofa bookby Rob Carlson, a der, pull faces and then mix it into a con- DIYbio pioneer): that DNA is a form of Military technology coction offruit and milk. But the event software that can be manipulated to de- 7 The unsheltering sky organised by Open Wetlab in Amsterdam sign biological processes and devices. But Long-range ballistic-missile has a more serious goal than to come up some people worry that amateur labora- defences look doomed with new recipes forsmoothies: finding tories could create killer bugs or provide ways to make spirulina—an algae which is training forbio terrorists. For the moment, full ofproteins and vitamins, but tastes at least, such fears seem premature. The Demolition technology disgusting—more palatable. amateur labs are not yet very sophisticat- 10 Bringing the house down Welcome to the world ofbiohacking. ed, according to a recent survey of359 New ways to demolish old In its original sense, hacking involves members ofthe DIYbio movement by the buildings in crowded cities taking things apart and putting them back Woodrow Wilson International Centre for together again in new ways. Such tinkerers Scholars, a think-tank. Most activities helped to create the “maker movement”, involve extracting DNA, for instance from The connected car which has grown into a worldwide com- strawberries. Only13% ofthe biohackers 12 Smartphones on wheels munity ofpeople constructing things have synthesised a gene and just 3% have Mobile communications are ranging from 3D-printed jewellery to genetically engineered a mammalian cell. changing the way cars are used robots. Biohackers have also started to Since biohackers often have a PhD, they organise themselves, under the umbrella probably did this in a professional lab. Air-traffic control ofa movement called DIYbio. Nearly 50 cities, mostly in America and Art and science 15 Free flight Europe, are now home to groups ofbio- Not all the groups are focused on synthetic How pilots can fly direct routes, hackers or amateur laboratories where biology. In Europe, amateur biologists saving time and fuel they can meet and experiment. Besides often workwith artists and designers, says Open Wetlab, these include Biocurious in Markus Schmidt, co-author ofa paper on Brain Scan Sunnyvale, California, Genspace in New European DIYbio. A recent faircalled 17 Welcome to my genome Yorkand La Paillasse in Paris. The number “Synthetic Aesthetics” at the Victoria and A profile of George Church, a ofbiohackers around the world is any- Albert Museum in London included pro- pioneer of genetics body’s guess, but the movement’s main jects that use bacteria to colour tapestries, online-mailing list boasts nearly 4,000 grow bags and encode music in DNA. members and is growing rapidly. “Our goal is not only to advance biolo- What drives the movement is the gy, but democratise it,” explains Ellen 1 2 Monitor The Economist Technology Quarterly September 6th 2014

2 Jorgensen, president ofGenspace. Found- OpenPCR has now become a startup advice to new ventures.)

ed in 2010, the community laboratory in business and is working on an improved As DIYbio grows calls fortighter regu- ¡

Brooklyn is the model forthe two dozen PCR machine. Amplino, a Dutch startup, lations will get louder et clamping down others that have since opened around the has built a low-cost device capable of would be counter-productive, argues Mr world. Genspace hosts all sorts ofevents, detecting malaria, which it hopes will be Carlson. Such rules would be hard to including “biohacker boot camps”, as well used in developing countries. enforce and drive biohackers under- as projects such as “barcoding” in Alaska, Other firms are working on products ground. It would hamper startups and an attempt to catalogue plants. that could make life much easier forbio- limit innovation. Much better, says Mr Technological movements often arise hackers. Autodesk, a big software com- Carlson, for governments to support com- when a critical mass ofenthusiasts get pany, has a scheme under way code- munity labs where everbody—biohackers, greater access to information and find named “Project Cyborg” which is devel- startups and anyone who is interested— tools that are both cheap and widely oping design tools for DNA. Opus can experiment openly and safely. 7 available. A similar thing is happening in Labworks, a startup, aims to build a fluid- medical technology, where there is a handling robot starting at $2,000. Even flourish ofinnovative startups making more ambitious, Cambrian Genomics is new devices (see next story). building a “3D printer forliving things”—a Many ofthe first makers were software device that can cheaply synthesise DNA. Doctoring developers wanting to reconnect with the But there are barriers that will limit real world by building physical things. DIYbio’s growth. Building a biological devices Enough people are now interested in device is a lot more complicated than biology and have knowledge to hackDNA, putting together a robot or designing a says Mr Carlson. DIYbio also has roots in new circuit board. And whereas regulators Medical technology: Easy access to iGEM, a successful annual synthetic- have largely ignored the maker move- technology and a lower cost of entry biology competition forundergraduates. ment, they are a lot more interested in the are creating a crowd of startups As in the case ofthe maker movement, workofamateur laboratories. websites such as YouTube and Instruc- IfEuropean biohackers are less focused making new gear tables allow tinkerers to share ideas. Simi- on synthetic biology, it is partly because OFTWARE helped startups flourish, larly, access to information about biotech- they need to askforpermission. Genetics Swith open-source programs and the nology has become much easier, says Mr laboratories require a licence and only a web providing easy collaboration and a Carlson. The Journal of Visualised Experi- few are even trying to get one. In America fast route to market. Tens ofthousands of ments, a peer-reviewed online-video biohackers used to riskgetting arrested, software developers will produce apps publication, is one source. but in recent years the FBI has opted fora worth more than $30 billion this year. The necessary laboratory equipment is more enlightened approach: local special Now cheap computing power and the no longer beyond the budget ofhobbyists. agents talkto community labs; the agency shrinking cost ofsmall-scale manufactur- Many devices are now forsale on eBay organises an annual DIYbio conference; it ing are spawning more hardware startups. and more specialised online market- is even a sponsor ofiGEM. “The people As examples from Europe show, a particu- places, not least because the recession has who practise DIYbio are best placed to larly thriving area is medical technology. forced a number ofcommercial laborato- know what is going on,” says Edward You, “Easy access to technology empowers ries to close. Such equipment can also be who pioneered the FBI’s effort. He also creative minds,” says Ulrich Weinberg of built more cheaply by using off-the-shelf thinks that the agency and the DIYbio the Hasso Plattner Institute in Potsdam, parts and open-source software. movement have a “shared responsibility Germany. Although Mr Weinberg often to protect science”. In other words, if works with big companies that make My own PCR machine things go wrong there will be tighter regu- medical devices, he has seen the costs of If3D printers are the tool ofchoice for lations—making life more difficult for both entry tumble. “Even groups ofstudents 1 makers, PCR machines are de rigueur in law enforcement and biohackers. amateur labs. Using a biochemical tech- Most DIYbio leaders welcome all this nology called polymerase chain reaction (although some joke that DIYbio would (hence PCR), the machines are used to not be where it is today without the FBI’s identify a specific segment ofDNA and support). “What you don’t want to do is make multiple copies ofit. “Youcan now surprise law enforcement and regulators build these in a garage,” says Josh Perfetto, with new technologies,” says Jason Bobe, who is one ofthe founders ofOpenPCR, a co-founder ofDIYbio.org, a charity that group which has developed a simple PCR supports the movement, who also works machine that costs only $600. with George Church, a pioneer ofgenetics DIYbio also benefits from the organisa- (see page 17). For now it seems to be able to tional infrastructure ofthe maker move- regulate itself. DIYbio.org has hired safety ment. Many laboratories start in hacker- experts formembers to consult. And spaces, which serve as clubhouses for leaders ofthe movement on both sides of makers. Amsterdam’s Open Wetlab, for the Atlantic have developed a code of instance, is part ofthe Waag Society, an ethics which frowns on releasing geneti- organisation which also runs a shop for cally modified organisms into the environ- makers. Moreover, many tinkerers have ment. When one group wanted to launch started dabbling in biology. a crowdfunding project to develop a glow- All this raises the question ofhow big ing plant and send contributors the seeds, DIYbio will become. The maker move- their laboratory showed them the door. ment now counts tens ofthousands of (The project nonetheless went ahead and members and hundreds ofstartups. Its will be the first biology startup to join Y boosters say DIYbio could repeat the trick. Combinator, Silicon Valley’s leading “ac- It has already spawned its first firms. celerator”, which provides capital and Babybe gets a cuddle The Economist Technology Quarterly September 6th 2014 Monitor 3

2 w ith very limited financial resources are Many medtech startups are academic able to build functional prototypes within spin-offs. Scopsis, forexample, is a collabo- a couple ofweeks,” he says. ration begun in 2010 with Charité Univer- Turning ideas into products has never sity Hospital in Berlin and the Fraunhofer been easier. It begins with cheap—and in Institute. The company makes navigation some cases free—computer-aided-design systems forminimally invasive surgery. software, which allows devices to be These use various data, including images modelled and simulated to a high level of from the endoscopes used in such proce- accuracy. Rapid-prototyping equipment, dures, to ensure surgeons are following such as 3D printers, can quickly give the the correct path. One system allows the ideas shape. And besides open-source virtual plans a surgeon has made on a software, product developers now have computer screen to be overlaid on the low-cost open-source hardware they can video from an endoscopic camera during use too, such as Arduino microcontrollers. the operation. Medtech, as the business is known, is Ideas fornew devices often emerge particularly attractive to inventors be- when doctors team up with engineers. cause the market is eager fornew devices This was the case with Transcatheter that can improve people’s lives, help with Technologies, founded in Regensburg, treatments and make the jobs ofhealth- Germany, by Wolfgang Goetz, a cardiac care workers easier. The field is also big surgeon, and Hou-Sen Lim, a mechanical and growing: medical-technology sales engineer and entrepreneur. They devel- are expected to reach $228 billion by 2015, oped a new method ofimplanting artifi- up from $164 billion in 2010, according to cial aortic valves into a patient’s heart Markets and Markets, an American con- without open surgery. The artificial valve, sulting firm. which has a special sealing cuff, is placed The startups come from myriad areas. into position with a catheter. Importantly, Babybe, forinstance, was founded by it can also be repositioned, which greatly In the moment Raphael Lang, an engineer and artist from reduces the riskofcomplications. Barcelona, and Camilo Anabálon, an Some startups focus on the consumer of the heat industrial designer who lives in Santiago, market, often with devices that connect to Chile. The pair met while studying at the a smartphone app. One example is Ko- Stuttgart State Academy ofArt and Design. libree, a Paris-based firm which has Local heating: One way to keep warm After working on projects fora number of launched an “intelligent” electric tooth- is to heat people rather than companies, they got the idea forBabybe brush. It gathers data on a person’s brush- expending energy heating the after visiting a neonatal intensive-care ing habits and informs him through the buildings they are in ward and being struckhow babies in app how well he is doing and which teeth incubators were surrounded by lots of he should brush a bit longer. Like many UILDINGS are horribly inefficient high-tech gear which, although helping startups, Kolibree used a crowdfunding B consumers ofheat. In winter, a vast them, separated the babies from the arms platform, in its case Kickstarter, to raise amount ofenergy is wasted heating emp- oftheir anxious mothers. money. Delivery ofits smart toothbrushes ty homes during the day, and warming is planned forOctober. empty commercial buildings at night. Copying mother Despite benefiting from the lower cost Even when buildings are in use, unoccu- That led them to develop a system which ofentry, medtech minnows may not be pied spaces are routinely kept at the same replicates the heart beat and breathing much ofa threat to the industry’s giants. temperature as those that are occupied. pattern ofa mother forher baby while it is Innovation has long bubbled up from Some spaces in particular are spectacular in an incubator. The idea is to maintain a below, though not necessarily in the form heat wasters. The huge atriums that for linkbetween the two, which could help ofindependent startups. In the past, doc- many firms serve as corporate status reduce infant stress. A pad called the “tur- tors were more likely to offer ideas to big symbols are usually occupied by no more tle” is held by the mother to her chest. The firms to commercialise. Some would help than a handful ofpeople, yet every cubic turtle contains various sensors which read with the product development. foot is kept warm around the clock. Small her vital signs and it transmits those data Even though it is easier to get a business wonder that the heating, ventilation and to a soft, flexible mattress that is filled with going, most startups tend not to remain on air conditioning (HVAC) ofbuildings gel. The mattress uses pumps and other their own. Many large medical-equipment accounts for13% oftotal energy consump- electronic systems to create a gentle rhyth- firms now acquire new products by buy- tion in America. mic movement which copies that ofthe ing small companies that invent them—an A 2012 paper published in the journal mother’s chest. exit strategy factored into the business Energy and Buildings unsurprisingly found Developing the bionic mattress cost plans ofmost startups. Selling out also that the operation ofHVAC systems in two less than $150,000. And being a two-man helps when costly clinical trials and other buildings at the Massachusetts Institute of operation based in different countries was regulations have to be met. And marketing Technology (MIT) closely tracked factors not a handicap. “Youcan combine the best a new product all over the world can be such as outside temperature. But it also technology from all over the world with hard for a small company without a well- revealed a distinct lackofcorrelation the help offreelancers,” says Mr Lang. known brand. between building occupancy and the Hence the gel used in the mattress comes But there is a third way, one that Baby- amount ofenergy supplied by its HVAC. from Germany, miniature pumps from be intends to try. The company’s founders This makes little sense, because apart from America and most ofthe digital innards do not want to sell their firm but hope to the modest ambient heat required to stop and plastic parts from China. Big compa- get support from an established company water pipes from freezing, it is people nies are fartoo bureaucratic to be able to in return fora share ofthe profit. It is a rather than buildings who care about operate with the same speed and at such partnership that might prove a good deal being comfortably warm. low cost, Mr Lang believes. for both sides. 7 Carlo Ratti, director ofMIT’s Senseable 1 4 Monitor The Economist Technology Quarterly September 6th 2014

2 City Laboratory and a co-author ofthe paper, was musing on this while sitting outside a restaurant being warmed by one ofthose tall, mushroom-shaped infra-red The language of the internet heaters. Might it be possible, he wondered, to aim such heat more accurately at people as they move around? Thus was born his of things lab’s “Local Warming” project, a prototype ofwhich is on display at the 14th Interna- Communication standards: More and more devices are becoming connected, tional Architecture Exhibition being held in Venice until November 23rd. but will they speak the same language? The installation in Venice, along with HERE was a time, not long ago, when one which Dr Ratti and his team set up in Taccess to the internet could be gained the exterior “porch” beneath MIT’s stately only through a computer. Now people can main entrance, uses a combination of get to it using phones, tablets and some powerful infra-red lamps, clever optics games consoles. Increasingly, other de- and servo motors to direct beams ofheat vices are becoming internet-linked too, as at people. The location and trajectory of connectivity is extended to everyday the people are tracked by a Wi-Fi-based objects such as televisions, radios, watch- system that was also developed by the es and cars. university. Another more compact and The “internet ofthings” promises a cost-effective prototype replaces the mov- technological revolution, but forit to work ing lamps with arrays ofinfra-red LEDs well these things need to speakthe same and “targeting” optics that simply switch language. Industry, however, tends to on and offas people come and go. The LED adopt common standards—ifat all—only arrays have no moving parts and could, after jostling between rival producers with for example, easily replace false ceilings in competing systems. It was so for trains, office buildings. televisions, video recorders, mobile phones and the internet itself. And it will Warm encounters be the same for connected devices. Local Warming can workwith a smart- A number ofindustry groups are trying phone app that enables each person to set to standardise how things connect and their own preferred temperature. Each communicate. One ofthe most prominent individual is warmed by a number of is the AllSeen Alliance, a consortium of LEDs to avoid the feeling—all too common firms from such diverse worlds as semi- in the vicinity ofmushroom lamps—that conductors, white goods, consumer elec- only part oftheir body is being heated. tronics and retail. Its biggest members “It’s almost like having a personal sun include Haier, LG, Panasonic, Qualcomm following you around,” says Dr Ratti, and Microsoft. Their proposed solution is although ifyou inadvertently leave your AllJoyn, a free piece ofsoftware created by phone on your deskyou get to shiver at Qualcomm but handed to the Alliance for whatever baseline temperature the build- its members to develop further. Many other not-yet-thought-ofapplica- ing’s general HVAC system is maintaining. AllJoyn is designed to sit inside devices tions will arise, says Liat Ben-Zur, chair- And iftwo or more people are chatting at and, regardless ofmanufacturer or operat- woman ofthe AllSeen Alliance. “Unex- the water cooler, they may find their tem- ing system, mediate direct communica- pected capabilities pop up when devices perature preferences momentarily mixed. tions over wireless links such as Wi-Fi or speakthe same language,” she says. Local Warming’s efficiency and cost Bluetooth. The idea is that objects broad- Simple as it sounds, the challenge savings are hard to calculate. Ifthere are cast to each other descriptions ofwhat remains considerable. The immediate enough people in a locally warmed space they can do, in a common language. problem is accommodating the great the system will reach saturation, and its A television might announce that it can diversity ofconnected things, varying not efficiency will be no greater than a con- display notifications, a speaker that it just in their thousands ofdifferent uses, ventional HVAC installation. But in a large, plays audio files or a clockthat it can exe- but also in their sophistication. Estab- intermittently populated space such as an cute commands at given times. A newly lishing standards flexible enough to em- atrium or lecture hall, Dr Ratti believes the released smartwatch, for example, should brace all devices is a daunting task. energy used for heating could in theory be then have no trouble communicating with So is trying to ensure forward compati- cut by up to 90%. As his team develops the these other devices even though they have bility. Innovation in connected devices is technology and installs it more widely, it not been previously acquainted or pro- rapid, but futureproofing is difficult be- will glean more accurate data on savings. grammed to workwith each other. In the cause no one knows where the tech- Whether such “active” heating systems case ofan air-conditioning unit, say, the nology and its myriad applications will gain widespread adoption will depend on smartwatch could control the airflow and lead. People also have to get used to smart those numbers, and also on how costly the air conditioner could send tempera- devices and installing regular software they would be ifmass-produced. But Local ture information to the watch’s screen. updates even, perhaps, for ovens. Warming is clearly sparking heated in- Once more things connect, many The real problem may turn out to be terest. The American government’s Ad- scenarios present themselves. Connected not a lackofstandards, but too many—and vanced Research Projects Agency-Energy, smoke alarms could enlist nearby light disagreement over which initiative to which backs research and development of bulbs to flash and speakers to sound an pursue. The AllSeen Alliance is just one of energy technologies, has already set aside alert. A warning about the smoke’s loca- many groups working on solutions. AT&T, $30m to help get similarly heart-warming tion could appear on a television. And Cisco, GE, IBM and Intel have helped form projects offthe ground. 7 door locks could be automatically opened. another group called the Industrial In- 1 The Economist Technology Quarterly September 6th 2014 Monitor 5

2 ternet Consortium to “define common Some companies are involved with more might benefit because they were likely to architectures” for smart objects. Other than one group: Cisco, for example, is a die as no other treatment was available. organisations include the IPSO Alliance, partner ofboth the AllSeen Alliance and For now, the patient has to be between 18 which is promoting the use ofthe Internet the Industrial Internet Consortium, and a and 65 years old, have a penetrating Protocol, which eventually standardised member ofseveral other initiatives. wound, such as a knife, gunshot or similar the way that data could flow across differ- The various efforts are both competing injury, suffer a cardiac arrest within five ent types ofnetwork; the Open Intercon- and complimentary, adds Mr ¤elosa. minutes ofarrival in the hospital and fail nect Consortium (Broadcom, Dell, Sam- AllJoyn, for example, is designed primari- to respond to usual resuscitation efforts. sung and others); and the Institute of ly forshort-distance object-to-object com- It is one thing to carry out EPR in an Electrical and Electronics Engineers, munication within the home; alternative ordered laboratory but quite another to do which is working—perhaps ambitious- solutions may involve a gateway, such as a it in a busy emergency centre. The first ly—to build consensus on standards. router, to intermediate communication challenge is formedical staffto insert a The many approaches reflect the youth between devices—an approach better catheter into arteries to flush all the blood ofthe technology and it is unlikely that suited for outdoors, large buildings and out ofthe patient. The blood is replaced by

any ofthe current efforts will succeed citywide networks. The Industrial In- giving the patient 2-3 litres a minute of

£ ¤

completely, says ¢elosa, a research ternet Consortium has a greater commer- saline solution at a chilly10°C. The proce- director at Gartner, a market-research firm. cial and industrial focus. Given the huge dure has to be completed within 20-30 They will, though, nudge the industry variety ofconnected devices, and no minutes to have a chance ofworking. forward by getting companies to talkto doubt the desire ofsome firms to keep Once the patient is in a suspended one another. It could take years before things proprietary, it is possible that no state, a surgeon will try to repair the firms commit themselves to one solution. single standard ever emerges. 7 wound within an hour to prevent any bleeding when blood circulates again. Finally, a heart-lung bypass machine is used to restart the blood flow and warm the patient up. The medical team will try The big sleep to keep the patient slightly cooler than normal, at around 34°C, for12 hours. Then an attempt will be made to bring the patient round. In animal experiments the heart did not always start by itself. Suspended animation: Doctors have begun human trials of suspended Ifthe human trials are successful, the aim is to take the technique out into the animation to buy more time for critically injured patients field. For example, a paramedic might be HE picture that is immediately brought citated having stopped breathing forhalf able to use EPR to put a dangerously ill Tto mind by talkofsuspended anima- an hour or more after falling into icy water. patient into a suspended state until they tion is usually one ofthe crew ofNostromo Research on EPR was begun in Pitts- can be rushed to a specialist hospital. Such waking up from their deep sleep after a burgh by the late Peter Safarand Dr Tisher- a system could also be used on the battle- long journey through space in the 1979 man. Dr Safar, who died in 2003, was a field to evacuate injured soldiers. Portable movie “Alien”. Yet this gives a somewhat pioneer ofcardiopulmonary resuscita- EPR systems will depend on the devel- misleading impression ofSamuel Tisher- tion, known as CPR. Dr Tisherman carried opment ofnew technology to miniaturise man’s new trauma technique, which uses on with the workand, after successful and automate equipment. That might be an innovative rapid-cooling procedure to experiments on animals, got approval for possible with, for instance, smart catheters suspend life. Dr Tisherman and his col- human trials. The Food and Drug Admin- that use ultrasound to help non-specialists leagues preferto call it emergency preser- istration decided the procedure was ex- guide them correctly into blood vessels. It vation and resuscitation (EPR). The first empt from informed consent, as patients is another example ofscience fiction trials using EPR on people are now being would be too ill to give it themselves and becoming science fact. 7 held at the University ofPittsburgh Medi- cal Centre Presbyterian Hospital. Early next year more trials are planned at the ShockTrauma Centre, part ofthe Universi- ty ofMaryland Medical System. Dr Tisherman’s EPR process, developed with the help of$800,000 from the De- partment ofDefence, is mostly about resurrection. The idea at this stage is to use equipment like the catheters and pumps that can be found in any trauma centre to suspend the life ofcritically injured peo- ple in order to buy more time for surgeons to try to save them. EPR works by lowering the patient’s body temperature and replacing their blood with a cold saline solution. Hypo- thermia is already induced in patients to help reduce bleeding during some surgical procedures. But cooling the body down so that it goes into a suspended state has not been tried before. The idea came from observations that people have been resus- Wakey-wakey, there’s an alien about 6 Difference engine The Economist Technology Quarterly September 6th 2014 Where gadgets go to die

Recycling electronics: A growing mountain of electronic waste needs to be disposed of responsibly by rich nations rather than shipped to poorer countries to do the dirty work

HAT to do with old computers, The Chinese city of Guiyu in Guang- Wmonitors, keyboards, printers, dong province is the e-waste capital ofthe phones and other digital paraphernalia? world. Though container loads are still On no account should anything contain- shipped there from American, European ing a printed circuit board be put in the and Japanese ports, the bulk of the e- rubbish bin for municipal collection. Not waste being processed in China nowa- countingall the othertoxicmaterials used days is domestically produced. Guiyu is in electronic products, the lead in the sol- reckoned to employ 150,000 people, in- dered joints alone requires such items to cluding large numbers of children, disas- be recycled professionally. sembling old computers, phones and oth- According to a United Nations initia- er electronic devices by hand. Circuit tive known as StEP (Solving the E-Waste boards are soaked in acid to dissolve out Problem), electronic waste can contain up the lead, cadmium and other metals. Plas- to 60 elements from the periodic table, as tic cases are ground into pellets, and cop- well as flame retardants and other nasty perwiringis stripped ofits plastic coating. chemicals. Apart from heavy metals such With costs so low, there is a ready market as lead and mercury, there are quantities for most ofthe materials recovered. ofarsenic, beryllium, cadmium and poly- Yet there is a price to pay for all this ac- vinyl chloride to be found. All of these pose hazards to the health tivity. Air pollution and contamination of the water supply in ofthose handling them. Guiyu are said to be horrendous. A medical researcher from near- When burned at low temperature, the brominated flame retar- by Shantou University found concentrations of lead in the blood dants used in circuit boards and casings create additional toxins, oflocal children to be on average 49% over the maximum safe lev- includinghalogenated dioxinsand furans—some ofthe most toxic el. The highest concentrations were found in children living in substances known. These can cause cancer, reproductive disor- homes that contained workshops for recycling circuit boards on ders, endocrine disruption and numerous other health problems. the premises. Meanwhile, the heavy metals released by incineration can accu- India is another big processor ofe-waste. All told, some 25,000 mulate in the food chain (especially in fish) and come back to workers in Delhi alone are estimated to be employed recycling up haunt future generations. to 20,000 tonnes annually of computers, phones and other hard- The trouble is that, even with respectable collection centres, ware. The preferred method for recycling circuit boards in India is there is no guarantee that e-waste will be processed responsibly to toss them into an open fire—to melt the plastics and burn away downstream. What little is known about recycling hazardous everything but the gold and copper. waste in America, forinstance, suggeststhatonly15-20% isactually With the mountain of e-waste growing at 8% a year, the recycled; the rest gets incinerated or buried in landfills, according 20m-50m tonnesthe EPA reckoned wasproduced globallyin 2009 to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). There is no evi- could easily reach 100m tonnes by 2020. What can be done to re- dence to suggest other countries are any better. duce the impact? Probably, not much at present. Recycling in an With few audits undertaken, even the EPA has to rely on as- environmentally sound manner is expensive. For wealthier coun- sumptions and guesswork. Most observers agree that only 20% or tries it remains much cheaper to ship unwanted electronic goods so of the 9m tonnes of e-waste collected each year in America is to poorer parts ofthe planet. processed domestically—either by reputable firms under con- trolled conditions, or by prison inmates with few, if any, handling Dismantling at home requirements. In other words, the bulkofthe waste—up to 80% by The cost of recycling e-waste in America would, of course, come weight—gets exported to places in Asia and Africa where health down significantlyiffirmsdoingthe workhad a greater volume of and safety regulations are less onerous. electronictrash to deal with. Thatwould also spurinnovative new Such exports are banned in Europe, but remain legal in Ameri- methods of processing the material. But such a change would re- ca. The United States is the only developed country that has re- quire stiff penalties to be imposed on the export of e-waste, or at fused to ratify the 1989 Basel Convention, an international treaty least gettingmanufacturers to include a fee in the price ofelectron- controlling the export ofhazardous waste from wealthy countries ic goods to offset the cost oftaking them backforreprocessing. to poorer ones. America has also refused, along with Canada and In the meantime, people can do theirown dirty workby taking Japan, to accept the Basel Convention’s 1995 amendment that im- the old television set, obsolete computerorbroken refrigerator to a poses an outright ban on such trade. recyclerwho is an accredited memberofone ofthe two voluntary Not that the Europeans behave any more ethically. Inspections certification schemes: E-Stewards and Responsible Recycling Prac- of 18 seaports in the continent in 2005 found nearly half the e- tices. An interactive map giving details of certified recyclers is on waste destined for export was actually illegal. Shippers use va- the EPA’s website (www.epa.gov/epawaste). In Europe the num- rious dodges to circumvent the Basel ban. For instance, waste la- berofrecyclers accredited by E-Stewards is increasing steadily. The belled as goods forrefurbishing or reuse can pass muster. It would Basel Action Network, an environmental pressure group, also lists be nice to thinkthat scrapped electronic products are repaired and recyclers (www.ban.org). Owning an electronic device now put backinto productive use, but that is often not the case. comes with a responsibility forits afterlife. 7 The Economist Technology Quarterly September 6th 2014 Military technology 7

The unsheltering sky

Missile defences: Even with new technology, America’s multi-billion-dollar efforts to build a shield against long-range ballistic missiles looks doomed

S TEST flights go, FTG-06b was a daz- away. North Korea is also testing rockets Azling affair. The mission was part of a and satellite systems which could carry a programme called Ground-based Mid- nuclear warhead. Arun Prakash, a former course Defence (GMD), which is supposed chairman of India’s Chiefs of Staff Com- to provide America’s main shield against mittee, sees the one-upmanship between intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) offence and defence systems as “a ding- with a range beyond 5,500km (3,418 miles). dong battle” with the defender at a perpet-

FTG-06b involved the launch (pictured op- ual disadvantage because it is far easier to

§ ¦ posite) on June 22nd fr¥andenberg Air build a missile than shoot it down. Force Base in California ofa hypersonic in- Despite the success of FTG-06b the terceptor. It successfully annihilated an un- prospects for a truly effective defence armed warhead which had been fired into against ICBMs appear as far away as ever. space from a US Army site on Kwajalein GMD alone has already cost America more Atoll in the western Pacific Ocean. than $40 billion. Yet until June it had failed The warhead wastracked bytwo Amer- all five intercept tests conducted since ican naval vessels: a destroyer equipped 2008, even though each was meticulously with an Aegis anti-missile system and a “scripted for success”, in the words of Phil- $900m floating offshore oil-rig, which had ip Coyle, a formerWhite House science ad- been kitted out with a highly sophisticated viser to BarackObama. active phased-array X-band radar. Far more powerful than conventional radar, When things go wrong the X-band system can calculate—with the The GMD system consistsofan “exoatmos- help of some big computers in Colorado pheric kill vehicle” with steering rockets Springs—the size, shape and trajectory of a and its own X-band radar system. The kill baseball-sized object 4,000km away trav- vehicle is made by Raytheon, a big Ameri- elling at 32,000kph. can defence contractor. Other companies Twelve years ago the United States involved in the project include Boeing, Or- withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile bital Sciences and Northrop Grumman. Treaty, a 1972 deal that limited the testing The kill vehicle was used in two of the and deployment ofanti-ICBM weapons by failed tests. On two other occasions, not America, the former Soviet Union and, lat- counted as “tests”, a GMD interceptor er, Russia and some ex-Soviet republics. failed to leave its silo. Since then, most technological advances in With such a record, FTG-06b was some- such systemshave been in America, where thing of “a make or break for the pro- the Missile Defence Agency (MDA) has gramme”, says Riki Ellison, chairman of spent some $98 billion on various projects the Missile Defence Advocacy Alliance, a since 2002. Although China appears to be lobby group based in Washington, DC.

working on an anti-ICBM system, Russia is When he addressed the Senate Subcom- §

the only other country with such a pro- mittee on Strategic Forces in April ¨ice-Ad- gramme—and it is farless capable, says Jef- miral Syring admitted as much when he frey Caton, a former US Air Force colonel said that a failure ofFTG-06b would force a and space-warfare specialist. reassessment of plans that are under way Meanwhile, the threat grows as poten- to expand the programme. tial attackers continue to acquire “more So far, there are 30 interceptors at §an- complex, survivable, reliable and accu- denberg Air Force Base and Fort Greely in

rate” ICBMs equipped with countermea- Alaska. The MDA has begun work at Fort §

sures ¨ice-Admiral James Syring, the Greely to prepare for a field of silos that MDA’s boss, told Senate lawmakers in will contain an extra 14 interceptors by June. Next year Iran could have a ballistic 2017. Even though the June test went well, missile able to reach America, he added. GMD remains so unreliable that the expan- Butothersthinkthatisatleastseveral years sion plans should be scrapped, says Fred-1 8 Military technology The Economist Technology Quarterly September 6th 2014 It is far easier to build a missile than shoot it down

2 erickLamb ofthe University ofIllinois and speed of more than 10km a second, an in- secretary of defence for research and engi- a consultant to the Pentagon. In combat terceptor must typically commit to attack- neering noted that the proliferation of conditions seven or so GMD interceptors ing a single object at least 50 seconds be- such advanced countermeasures was ren- would probably be needed to smash even fore hitting it, says Dr Postol. dering America’s missile defences “no lon- a single rudimentary North Korean ballis- Among the most dangerous decoys are ger practical or cost-effective”. tic missile, reckons Mr Coyle, now with the shiny Mylar balloons, similar to those sold Nevertheless, many proponents ofmis- Centre for Arms Control and Non-Prolifer- by party shops, says Thomas Reed, a for- sile defence believe more research could ation, also a Washington lobby group. mer secretary of the US Air Force. Made make even the most sophisticated decoys Money is being poured into developing from plastic with a metallic coating, the recognisable. Decoyswere used in the June new radar systems that could improve the material reflects radar. Dozens can be re- FTG-06b test, but the GMD engineers knew accuracy of anti-missile technology. But leased in one go and inflated to look on ra- whatto expect. Multiple interceptors could salvaging GMD, some experts believe, dar just like cone-shaped warheads, adds be launched, one after the other, for each might require an entirely new and larger Mr Reed. Worryingly, a warhead could be warhead thought to be on its way. As the kill vehicle. The MDA would like one, but concealed in a Mylar balloon. first interceptor draws closer to a flock of the project would take years. It took four It is possible that nuke-carrying bal- decoys, it could relay increasingly accurate years (and $1 billion) just to tweak the vi- loons can be detected by heat sensors be- data to a following interceptor to hit a war- bration frequency of the current vehicle’s cause they would be warmer as a result of head that has been identified as real. four thruster rockets because they were in- the slowly decaying plutonium inside the For now, though, no country has come terfering with its inertial measurement warhead. But it would not be difficult to close to defeating decoys, says Kingston unit, says George Lewis, a researcher at foil such sensors on interceptors (or satel- Reif, also of the Centre for Arms Control Cornell University. lites) by fitting each decoy balloon with a and Non-Proliferation. This view is widely There are other missile defences. So far, small battery-powered heater. shared. Even if the hurdles are overcome, 30 of America’s warships carry Aegis anti- others would arise. Warheads in space missile systems, but these were designed Multiplying the problem could fire steel balls out in front of them to to strike shorter-range missiles. With re- Decoys can also be generated by explosive clear the way of interceptors, says Mr cent upgrades, Aegis is thought to be capa- “cutting cord” on the inner wall ofthe final Coyle. An interceptor’s radar might be ble of intercepting warheads in space, in booster stage of the warhead. Upon sepa- jammed by electronic-warfare measures limited circumstances. With additional ra- ration in space, the explosive breaks up the or a nuclear warhead could be pro- dar near America’s east coast, Aegis de- metal casing of the booster. “Now you’ve grammed to detonate upon detection of stroyers in the Atlantic could theoretically got 20 objects coming towards you” so an approaching interceptor. A detonation intercept ICBMs coming from Europe and good luck identifying the warhead, says in space would generate a powerful elec- Asia, says Henry Cooper, who was Presi- Cornell University’s Dr Lewis. tromagnetic pulse (EMP) which could dent Reagan’s missile-defence negotiator. America’s National Intelligence Coun- knock out electrical circuits and power Japan has purchased the necessary kit for cil said in 1999 that China and Russia had grids across a continent. America’s EMP its warships and a land variant, Aegis devised numerous countermeasures to Commission, a body assembled by Con- Ashore, is due to be sited next year in Ro- protect offensive missiles and were proba- gress to study such a threat, reckoned in mania and, in 2018, in Poland. bly willing to sell the technology. A state- 2008 that two-thirds of Americans might Shielding America from ICBMs will re- ment in May by the office of the assistant perish in the first year ofa societal collapse 1 main impossible forthe foreseeable future, reckons William Cohen, a former Ameri- can secretary of defence. A missile assault from China or Russia would overwhelm even flawlessly performing US defences. And defending against a limited attack from a sophisticated opponent would, he adds, suffer from unresolved problems. Among those problems are decoys. After leaving the atmosphere a big ballistic missile can release, along with ten or so warheads, dozens of decoys. In the vacu- um of space the decoys will travel at the same speed as a warhead. Decoys can be generated by discharging infra-red-emit- ting aerosols or clouds of thin wires or tin- foil strips known as chaff. A defender’s ra- dar will register many incoming objects but only a fraction contain a warhead, says Theodore Postol, a missile expert at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Even ifdecoys can be identified, each radar blip may require several seconds or more ofanalysis. Buttime isshort. With a closing Stuck in a silo The Economist Technology Quarterly September 6th 2014 Military technology 9

would need fast reactions. Last year Amer- ica’s National Air and Space Intelligence Centre reported that the North Korean re- gime was developing a solid-fuel missile. Replacing its present liquid propellants with solid-fuel would greatlyreduce North Korea’s launch preparation time as well as the time—roughly five minutes—which its missiles take to reach space. Might aircraft-mounted anti-missile la- sers work? A few years back the Pentagon cancelled a Boeing-led airborne-laser pro- THAADs let rip gramme, in part because the modified 747 airliner’s bulky chemically generated laser 2 that would follow a nuclear blast in space the missile’s payload and debris may fall had a limited range. Solid-state lasers may above the central United States. backon the country that launched it. perform better. The MDA believes that Among nuclear powers, neither North The tricky bit is placing interceptors drones carrying lasers will “play a crucial Korea nor Pakistan is presently capable of close enough to reach the missile before it role” in defeating ICBMs during the boost building a ballistic-missile triggering sys- leaves the atmosphere. Ronald Reagan phase. Experiments have begun with Gen- tem that is able to detonate a nuclear pay- hoped to put them into low orbit, but the eral Atomics’ Reaper and Boeing’s Phan- load if an interceptor was drawing near, “Star Wars” scheme, as it was known, tom Eye drones. reckons Mr Reed, the former US Air Force would have required legions of satellites secretary who has also designed nuclear costing many billions of dollars. Another Sitting ducks warheads for the Pentagon. With time and problem with the Strategic Defence Initia- But slow-moving aircraft would be “sitting enough effort, this could change. At least tive, to use its formal name, is that satellites ducks”, as Dr Lamb puts it, for anti-aircraft one type of nuclear device detonated by can be shotup orblinded with Earth-based systems like the Russian Buk that downed North Korea “is not inconsistent” with ef- lasers. There is also a danger that the lasers Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 over Uk- forts to build a bomb designed for an EMP might “fall into radical hands”, says a mili- raine in July. Recent decades are “littered attack, says James Woolsey, a former direc- tary adviser to a European head of state. with the wreckage” of failed boost-phase tor of America’s Central Intelligence Agen- The adviser, who insisted on anonymity, shoot-down schemes, says David Monta- cy. (What is needed is not necessarily a added that there was concern about debris gue, a formerhead ofmissile technology at large blast, but lots ofgamma rays.) from destroyed anti-missile satellites Lockheed (now Lockheed Martin). He co- Such an attack might not even require a knocking out other satellites. In a 2007 test authored a National Research Council re- ballistic missile. In December 2012 North China shot up one of its defunct weather port two years ago that advised the Penta- Korea launched a satellite on a southerly satellites, creating a huge increase in the gon to give up on the idea. track. Although it may have malfunc- space debris threatening satellites today. A different approach could be the US tioned, the launch reveals another vulner- The notion of arming satellites for Army’s Terminal High-Altitude Area De- ability in missile defences which could be boost-phase defence now has “zero main- fence system (THAAD), which became op- exploited for an EMP attack, reckons Mr stream adherents”, says Brian Weeden, a erational last year in Guam, home to Woolsey. If a nuclear device was fitted into formerICBM launch officerwho spentfour American troops in the western Pacific a subsequent southerly launched satellite, years, as he puts it, “on alert in Montana Ocean. THAAD will also be exported; the it would circumvent America’s defences waiting for the end ofthe world”. first will go to the United Arab Emirates by against long-range weapons because these There is another technology taking to the end ofthe year. But THAAD, like Amer- are positioned to hit warheads flying from the sky in increasing numbers that could ica’s Patriot missile batteries and other overthe North Pole, notthose coming from play a role: using drones to launch inter- missile defence-systems outside ofthe Un- the south. Moreover, a nuke concealed in a ceptors. Dale Tietz, a former senior Star ited States and Russia, such as Israel’s Iron satellite in an orbit used by many civilian Wars official, says that North Korean mis- Dome air-defence system, were developed satellites could be detonated on a flyover siles could be prevented from reaching to hit shorter-range threats and cannot in- above America. There is no point in having space by just three interceptor-armed Glo- tercept ICBMs in space. A THAAD might a missile-defence system that cannot pre- bal Hawk drones flying above internation- score a hit during the final approach of an vent such an attack, says Mr Woolsey. al waters near the hermit kingdom. ICBM, but the launcher would need to be It might, however, be possible to shoot David Trachtenberg, a deputy assistant very close to the targeted area.

down missiles or rockets before they reach secretaryofdefence formissile defence un- Tellingly, in the remarkshe made to law-

space and eject decoys or place a nuke-car- der George W. Bush, believes that America makers in June ©ice-Admiral Syring re- rying satellite in orbit. Proponents of should spend more on developing inter- ferred to the MDA’s“overridinggoal” asde- “boost phase” defence, as it is called, point ceptor-armed drones. But flying drones fending American troops and military out that during its ascent a missile is easier close enough to launch sites without pene- sites. That comment, together with the pre- to hitbecause ittravelsslowlyand presents trating enemy airspace could be difficult. sent state of the technology, suggests, for a large, easier-to-pinpoint target thanks to Iran is probably too big fordrones to patrol now at least, the prospects for protecting un-jettisoned fuel tanks and the heat from successfully because launch sites could be much of the United States from ICBMs or its exhaust plume. Another plus is that if it located deep inside the country. Even in satellites secretly armed with nuclear is hit by an interceptor soon after launch, places that could be patrolled, drones weapons lookdoomed. 7 10 Demolition technology The Economist Technology Quarterly September 6th 2014

The noise from a gas cartridge explod- ing is not much louder than a firecracker. Bringing the house down When explosives are used in quarries the area has to be evacuated. When gas car- tridges are used, workers need to move backby just 30 metres. Whereas explosives tend to pulverise much ofthe material into dust, a gas cartridge fractures it into chunks Urban redevelopment: New ways are being found to demolish old buildings in which are easierto move and reuse. Unless crowded cities the cartridge is tightly confined it is almost harmless if ignited. So, according to Josy EW sights are as impressive as a tall tecting adjacent buildings and reducing Cohen, Non-Detonating Solutions’ foun- Fbuilding neatly collapsing onto its own dust, which is hard to prevent even when der, the gascartridgescan be shipped byair footprint after being rigged with explo- knocking down walls with old-fashioned and stored on site without the restrictions sives by demolition experts. The spectacle wrecking balls. An additional problem is imposed on explosives. attracts large crowds and lots of cameras. that when everything tumbles into a giant Gas-generating cartridges are increas- The levelling earlier this year of AfE Turm, heap it is difficult to extract material for re- inglyused to help demolish buildings even a 32-storey skyscraper in Frankfurt (pic- cycling, now an important way of defray- though they cost about 20% more than ex- tured below), showed how it is possible to ing demolition costs. plosives, says Jan Khlistovsky, co-owner of reduce thousands of tonnes of masonry, Apart from dust, explosive charges can Green Break Technology, a Czech demoli- concrete and steel to a pile of rubble with- throw out fragments called “flyrock”. tions company based near Prague. The car- out damaging surrounding buildings. Us- Sandbags or netting are used to try to con- tridges sidestep the “45 days of paper- ing explosives might be quick, but with tain such projectiles, butaccidentshappen. work” that the use of explosives requires, ever more development in crowded cities, When in August 2013 blasters demolished adds Mr Khlistovsky. This allowed the firm more discreet ways of demolishing old a disused power plant in Bakersfield, Cali- to charge just $1,600 to demolish a 20-me- buildings are having to be found. fornia, debris was hurled beyond a safety tre concrete silo. The rigmarole of dealing Bringing down a building with explo- perimeter about 300 metres away. A spec- with conventional explosives would have sives is a carefully orchestrated event. The tator’s leg was partially severed. increased the cost significantly. “blasters”, as contractors who specialise in Ferrari Démolitions, a French company, such work are known, position charges to Anothersort ofblast has worked out a way to fell tall buildings tear apart critical sections of supporting Now, though, it is possible to blow up a without explosives or gas cartridges. It structures. The detonations are staggered, large piece ofconcrete and produce almost makes use of the “house-of-cards princi- so that material from above collapses into no flyrock. The technique, developed by ple”, as a company technician put it. Engi- voids created a moment earlier. This helps Non-Detonating Solutions of Cape Town, neers use remotely controlled powerful to protect underground infrastructure in South Africa, does not rely on a conven- hydraulic jacks to push supporting walls the vicinity, such as sewers and fibre-optic tional explosive material. The firm has sideways on a mid-level floor. With the cables, which might be broken if every- started producing a plastic cartridge called walls gone, the top portion of the building thing hits the ground at once. AutoStem that is pushed into a borehole in immediately drops down with enough Although blastingtechnologyand tech- rock or concrete just as a stick of dynamite force to pulverise, in rapid succession, the niques have improved, the use of explo- would be. When the cartridge is triggered storeys below. sives remains limited, says Dario Trabucco, electrically from a lead, a proprietary mix- “Jacking” buildings in this way gener- a buildings researcher at IUAV, an architec- ture ofmaterial which containsan oxidiser ates a bit less dust than explosives. Even so, ture school in Venice. This, he adds, is be- reacts to rapidly produce a high-pressure the resulting clouds can still be thick cause a quiet revolution is taking place in gas. Because the gas is tightly contained in enough to require buildings in the neigh- other ways to demolish buildings. the borehole, its expansion splits the sur- bourhood to be sealed. Other ways of There are a number of reasons for this. rounding material. Even the smallest 20- physically pushing parts of the building In crowded cities there are tougher con- gram gascartridge can breakup a cubic me- apart are being developed. Excavators trols over demolition. These include pro- tre ofstone. with hydraulic arms of unprecedented 1 The Economist Technology Quarterly September 6th 2014 Demolition technology 11

2 length and power are one alternative. Their use is growing in China—and not a moment too soon, says Wilson Lu, a pro- fessor of architecture at the University of Hong Kong. Many cities in China are plagued by air pollution and the pace of demolition and construction is frantic. It is not unusual for buildings in China to last only a few decades, in part because they were badly built.

Biting a bit off With excavator arms that now reach up 12 storeys (about 40 metres), demolition firms can “chew a building apart” from the Kajima, a cut below the rest top down, says Richard Diven, an Idaho demolitions consultant. New arm “cou- Little of mainland China’s demolition 17-storey Tokyo headquarters buildings plers” allow operators to switch tool at- waste is recycled but the proportion is from the bottom up. To do this, Kajima de- tachments quickly without the bother of growing, says Hong Kong’s Dr Lu. This is veloped a system which holds up a build- leaving their cab. For instance, one tool partly because it is becoming harder for ing’ssupportcolumnswith gianthydraulic might be a pulveriser made by America’s haulage firms to find places to dump rub- jacks. This allows workers to cut out slices Caterpillar. It can tear out big chunks of ble illegally without being photographed of the building from below—with the con- concrete and bite through reinforcing steel. by angry locals with smartphones. Two venience ofdoing so at street level where it A shears attachment can gnaw through new types of disassembly could help in- is easier to remove material to be hauled steel columns thick enough to support a crease recycling further. away. It is also quieter than hoisting giant 20-storey building. One is a method called TopDownWay, skips aloft with cranes and dropping the For taller buildings beyond an excava- developed by Despe, an Italian company. It contents into lorries. Once a section has tor’s reach, smaller machines are hoisted was first used in 2012 to dismantle the Tour been removed the building is lowered and by crane onto the roof. These use jackham- UAP, a 25-storeyskyscraperin Lyon, France. the process repeated. mers to break up material, with the rubble Instead of spending three months erecting What the company calls its “cut and being placed into skips which the cranes scaffolding, netting and sheeting (neces- take down” method can remove roughly lift away and tip into lorries for removal. A sary to protect nearby buildings and the two storeys every ten days, says Hitoshi buildingnextdoorto The Economist in Lon- street below when demolishing a building Uehara, one of Kajima’s technologists. Al- don has disappeared this way. from the top down with excavators), though it is 5-10% more expensive than tra- The process can be used to take giant Despe built in just 20 days an exoskeleton ditional demolition, the company says its skyscrapers apart in the most crowded “hat” that enclosed the top three floors. process is about 15% faster and well suited places on Earth. The 30-storey SunningPla- This hat was attached to the central core of to built-up areas. za in Hong Kong, built in 1982, is being de- the building and lowered as the structure Demolishing buildings with explosives molished like this by YSK2 Engineering, a reduced in size. It gave workers ample ac- is likely to remain a spectacle in rural and local firm. Thomas Wong, the company’s cess to the building, reduced noise, con- more open urban areas. It will be per- managing director, says the job will take tained dust and prevented debris from fall- formed with what Mike Taylor, head of some 60 workers 11 months. Dismantling ing to the street. Despe removed floors at America’s National Demolition Associa- with excavators from the top down also the rate of about two a week. All but 5% of tion, describes as the precision with which yields more recyclables than explosions the skyscraper was recycled. a brain surgeon operates. Elsewhere, would, and much of the material recov- An even more unusual method of de- though, buildings will be taken apart from ered can be sold forreuse ratherthan scrap. molition was first demonstrated in 2008 the top down in increasingly careful ways. Recycling, says Mr Wong, defrays his de- by Kajima, a Japanese construction com- And some, as with Kajima’s method, will molition costs by as much as a tenth. pany, when it took down its 20-storey and shrinkbefore your eyes. 7 12 The connected car The Economist Technology Quarterly September 6th 2014

ble of doing a fair bit of autonomous driv- ing. For instance, the German company’s Smartphones on wheels new “Intelligent Drive” package has a fea- ture which, in congested traffic moving at less than 60kph (37mph), allows the driver to let the car steer, brake and accelerate by N A generation from now, your journey itself. The system uses a combination oful- Ihome may go a bit like this. As you leave trasonicand radarsensorsalongwith cam- your office, an empty car rolls up. Perhaps Motoring: The way cars are made, eras that monitor all around the vehicle. you summoned it, or maybe this is a regu- bought and driven is changing with Because Mercedes drivers like to be com- lar pickup. On the way home you listen to mobile communications. This paves fortable, it will even automatically adjust

your favourite music, watch a television the way to a driverless future the suspension before the car hits a pot-

show or catch up with the new ou bare- hole in the road. ly notice as the car slows down or speeds sophistication and automation. It is a pro- Many features in modern cars are be- up to avoid othervehicles, except for when cess that will change not just how cars are coming accessible to smartphones that it pulls aside to let an ambulance through. used but also the relationship between a connect to the vehicle. A smartphone app Some ofthe other cars have drivers using a car and its driver. This, in turn, will affect allows the driver of an electric BMW i3, for steering wheel, but many of them, like the way vehicles are made and sold. Even- example, to check the battery capacity of yours, have no wheel at all. tually, it is the connected car that may de- his vehicle while it is being topped up at a Despite that hold-up your journey is liver a driverless future. recharging station. Audi, part of the Volks- much faster, even though there are more The kit that enables this is starting to ap- wagen group, is working on a system cars on the road than in 2014. When you ar- pear in new vehicles. Some ofthe most ad- which would allow a driver to get out of rive home, the car heads off to its next cli- vanced driver aids can be specified in cer- the car and use his smartphone to instruct ent, or to park somewhere and wait for a tain Mercedes-Benz models. the vehicle to parkitself. call. You don’t know or care. After all, it’s These cars are already capa- Connected cars are a marriage of two not your vehicle: you summon a car only types of mobile technology: the mechani- when you need one. cal sort, which revolutionised transport in Tantalising glimpses of this future are the 20th century, and the electronicvariety, common today, most notably in Google’s which has transformed telecoms in the bubble-shaped prototype of an autono- 21st. A recent report by analysts at Citi- mous car. The internet giant has been group, a bank, used data from IHS, a re- running Toyotas and other models search firm, to divide the ways that mobile adapted for driverless travel up telecoms are influencing motoring into

and down Highway 101 in Sili- three useful groups.

 

c alley for a couple of years now, using on-board The carapp sensors to keep the vehicles The first bunch is made up of services on the straight and narrow. and applications delivered via mobile net- Other experiments use works to a car—either to systems that are a different approach to en- part of the vehicle or to devices, such as sure safe journeys. Some smartphones or tablets, carried by the 3,000 drivers in Ann Arbor, driver or passengers and connected to the Michigan, have had wireless inter- car wirelessly or with a cable. The most ob- net connections fitted to their cars. vious example are “infotainment” sys- These are used to feed information tems, which stream music, video, satellite to and from other vehicles and navigation and traffic information. The the transport infrastructure. The second consists of services based on data system will, forinstance, warn a supplied from the car, such as advance driver about to overtake a car if warning that a part needs to be replaced. there is a chance ofa collision with an And the third category brings together oncoming vehicle, or change a traffic light multiple vehicles, communicating with to green if safe to do so. The number of ve- each other and with smart infrastructure, hicles involved in the project, run by the from roadside sensors to traffic signals and University ofMichigan and largely funded remote data centres, to make traffic flow by America’s Department of Transporta- more smoothly and safely. tion, could triple over the next few years. Broadly speaking, services in the first What is happening in Michigan is part group are the most widespread already. of a much broader trend: the rise of the “The cards in infotainment have been “connected” car. This is the coming togeth- dealt,” says Andreas Mai of Cisco, a net- er of communications technologies, infor- work-equipment giant. People already mation systems and safety devices to pro- have their favourite services, like iTunes, vide vehicles with an increasing level of Spotify or TripAdvisor, on their smart-1 The Economist Technology Quarterly September 6th 2014 The connected car 13

along the road or around a blind corner. Connectivity can also help provide more real-time information about traffic hold-ups, beyond that already provided by satellite-navigation devices. The addition of vehicle-to-infrastructure communica- tion (V2I) takes things further still. Where- as the connected cars in Ann Arbor can change the timing of traffic lights, a combi- nation of V2V, V2I and automated driving could do away with traffic lights complete- ly. Cars could be co-ordinated so that they avoid one another at road crossings. Not having to stop at road crossings would re- duce congestion. The sensors in vehicles that check things like tyre and oil pressures, as well as brakes and engine performance, will also 2 phones. Surveys, though, suggest that car app also allows OnStar users to lock and have a role. Pavan Mathew of Telefónica, a buyers place a higher value on services unlock the car’s doors remotely, start the mobile-network operator, points out that that make travelling safer, save them time engine and find the vehicle on a map if the many drivers dread the moment when a or money, or alert them to problems with driver forgets where he parked it. GM aims dashboard warning light flicks on. Remote their vehicle. These services lie mainly to have the service available in nearly all its monitoring and messaging can swiftly though not wholly in the second and third cars worldwide by 2015. send a note to the driver about the extent groups. But widespread availability may But regulators are also forcing the pace. ofthe problem. take several years. The European Union wants a system that Vehicles’ diagnostic systems could also The number of cars with some sort of automatically calls for help in the event of pickup faultsbefore theyare manifested as networking ability today is small, perhaps a crash to be fitted to all new vehicles by blacksmoke pouring from an exhaust pipe only 8% of the global total, according to 2015. Russia has similar plans and Brazilian or a horrible grinding noise from the en- McKinsey, a consulting firm. But by 2020 cars will need to be fitted with trackers as a gine. Cars could then be brought in for re- around a quarter of all cars, mainly the way to reduce theft. Encouraged by the pair before trivial problems develop into more expensive sort, will be online. The Ann Arbor test, in February America’s Na- bigones. Followingthe lead ofTesla, a Cali- build-up will be relatively slow because tional Highway Traffic Safety Administra- fornian maker of electric cars, more faults many old cars stay on the road fora decade tion said it would begin workingon a regu- might one day be fixed remotely over the or so. But for new cars things are changing lation to require vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) internet by a software upgrade. rapidly. BMW has been embedding SIM communication to be fitted in all new cars. Indeed, checking on cars remotely has cards for mobile connectivity in all its new plenty of other possibilities that may re- cars since April. By 2020, around 90% ofall On the digital dashboard duce (or worsen) stress levels. Online ser- manufacturers’ new models are likely to Different applications require different vices will allow, for instance, closer moni- have them, according to Machina Re- technologies. A search for a parking space toring of the driving behaviour of search, another consulting firm. The mar- would probably go overpublic mobile net- teenagersbeyond the basicwarningsof ag- ket then starts to look particularly juicy. A works from an app, whether on the gressive braking or exceeding speed limits recent report by GSMA, the mobile opera- driver’s smartphone or one running on a thatthe “blackboxes” supplied bysome in- tors’ trade body, says revenues from the digital dashboard. For safety features, such surance companies presently provide. sale of in-vehicle services, hardware and aspreventinga carfrom pullingoutin front And not just younger drivers. Insurers are the provision ofconnectivity itselfwill tre- of another, V2V communication is essen- likely to offer any driver a lower premium ble over five years to reach $39 billion by tial, says Kurt Sievers of NXP, a semicon- if technological monitoring of his driving 2018. Machina reckons it could rise to a ductor company. Public networks will be habits shows he is being careful. staggering $422 billion by 2022, most of it too slow forthis and may lackthe capacity. Exactly who will deliver all these new coming from connected services to and His company is making systems with dual motoring services is far from clear. It is by from vehicles. antennae to cope with reception difficul- no means certain that it will be traditional Car buyers are expected to be keen on ties, because radio waves from moving ve- carmakers, even though they are all busily connected services once they get to know hicles tend to bounce off buildings and developing, making and marketing in- about them and see them in action. This other surfaces. Authentication of signals creasingly connected vehicles. In the past much is clear from the limited offerings al- matterstoo, to preventcarstakingunneces- consumers have expected the new tech- ready available. The ability forthe car itself sary avoiding action. nologies that appear in cars quickly to be- to call the emergency services automati- With increased connectivity between come standard features forwhich they pay callyin the eventofan accidentisreckoned cars, driver aids will become much more little if anything extra. Electric windows, by many drivers to be a valuable feature of sophisticated. A connected car would, for anti-lock brakes and power steering are GM’s OnStar, a connected safety and navi- instance, receive not just information now almost universal. gation system which in effect enables a ve- about a hazard detected by its own sen- The connected car, however, has hicle to function as a phone. A separate sors, but also alerts from a vehicle farther created powerful new competitors in the 1 14 The connected car The Economist Technology Quarterly September 6th 2014 Fiat Chrysler’s boss, Sergio Marchionne, is worried that it will cost his company money to “provide a venue to host other people’s parties”

2 motor industry’s traditional supply chain. present, operating through a dealership cles unrealistically frugal during tests. And some of those new competitors are system that is reminiscent of that between Carmakers, usually conservative and keen to win themselvesa bigslice of the ac- handset-makers and operators. After sell- slow-moving, are getting ready. Aside from tion. These are mobile-telecoms operators, ing a car through a franchised dealer, fur- the engine, body and interior, cars already makers of networking gear, developers of ther interaction with car buyers is limited contain lots of electrical architecture. Most V2V and V2I technologies, producers of to a dealership visit every couple of years of the big firms have set up connected-car consumer hardware and systems, soft- for a service (or sooner if there is a pro- groups to work alongside their electrical ware firms and creators ofmobile apps. blem). Connectivity will bring the custom- engineers to ensure that the hardware and Cars will become bundles of different er and carmaker closer together. Ship and software required for connectivity fit. De- technologies, not only of devices but also forget will be supplanted by ship and up- troit’s car guys are deferring to techies, of consumer brands, all vying for the date, which is what makers of computers poached from the software industry, who driver’s attention in a sometimes uneasy and mobile devices do already. So far car are adept at dealing with app-makers and alliance with carmakers. Apple and Goo- companies seem unclear about what this the like. Carmakers are looking closely at gle are locked in competition for control of will mean for how they do business. Tesla, which describes itself as a “software the digital dashboard. In response to Car- Getting closer to their customers company that builds cars”, for inspiration. Play, a vehicle-infotainment system devel- should at least make the carmakers more Connectivity will eventually change oped by Apple, Google in June launched a responsive. The data can help manufactur- the way cars are integrated into transport rival called Android Auto. ers and dealers target customers more effi- systems. Car sharing, either through car Mobile-phone operators see the con- ciently. As well as sending details of offers, clubs run by the big rental firms or peer-to- nected car as yet another device to be dealers might better fit a particular car to a peer services, will be far easier when com- hooked up to their networks. In America, driver through an analysis of individual munication between vehicles and poten- AT&T is letting drivers ofGM cars add their driving habits. They could suggest extra tial passengers is seamless and any car can vehicles to their data plans, alongside their features that would suit some motorists, be accessed and operated securely by any smartphones and tablets, for $10 a month. from hybrid technology to modest add- smartphone. Making journeys using sever- In future, which mobile network you use ons. Some carmakers are already miles al forms of transport, including a car, will may affect your choice of car. In a recent along this road. Elon Musk, Tesla’s boss, be smoother if it is easier to find car-shar- poll Nielsen, a market-research firm, found laughs at the suggestion that his customers ing locations or parking spaces close to that half of Americans who owned cars would accept anything less than a high de- connecting points fortrains or buses. made since 2009 would be less likely to gree of connectivity and interaction when And with increasing automation and buy a new car if it had a different data plan he sells them an electric car. connectivitythere will be lessneed to have from their smartphone. The data could help customers know to own or drive these vehicles yourself. To- more about cars too. Motorists will have day’s experimental autonomous cars Invisible competitors the ability to find out the actual miles stuffed full of on-board sensors are only Not everyone tryingto get in on the act will per gallon a car will do in the part of the solution. The develop- be visible to the driver. All the data goingto real world rather than ment of systems that let cars and from cars and infrastructure will have trust the claims made talk to cars, and to the world to be transmitted and processed. That adds by car companies, beyond, will be just as im- to demand for chips, network equipment which use a box of portant on the road to a driver- and data centres. Cisco, for example, envis- tricks to make their vehi- less future. 7 ages a lot of processing taking place not in the “cloud” of central data centres but more speedily and conveniently within a “fog” ofintelligent networks. Carmakers know they will have to share the benefits of the connected car. Some seem gloomy about their prospects ofgetting any ofthem at all. Fiat Chrysler’s boss, Sergio Marchionne, is worried that it will cost his company money to “provide a venue to host other people’s parties”. Some carmakers see more of an opportu- nity to profit as they could benefit beyond their share of the monthly charges for con- nectivity. Using the data to tweak the de- sign and performance of their vehicles by identifying components that are more like- ly to cause problems will both help them to improve the cars they produce and cut warranty costs. Good connectivity should help to reinforce brand loyalty too. The relationship between carmakers and their customers is at arm’s length at The Economist Technology Quarterly September 6th 2014 Air-traffic control 15

past 40 years the numberofairline passen- gers worldwide has grown tenfold to some Free flight 3.1 billion in 2013. By 2030 it is expected to reach over 6.4 billion. Flight corridors frequently follow his- toricroutesand zigzagaround. Manyof the routes which cross America are based on where hilltop beacons were lit to guide Flight safety: As more aircraft take to the sky, new technology will allow Charles Lindbergh’s mail flights in the pilots to pick their own direct routes but still avoid one another 1920s. Plenty of radar systems still resem- ble 1940s technology and provide only a N A windowless industrial building on can fly where they want the risk of colli- limited “view” of what is in the air. And in Ithe outskirts ofMadrid a group ofpeople sion would appear to rise. Yet the control- Europe, flights have to negotiate a laby- are watching a series of coloured symbols lers in Madrid are relaxed and, apart from rinth of64 air-traffic-control areasoperated move steadily across a bank of computer issuing a few course corrections to avoid a by different national authorities. All this screens. Each icon representsan aircraft fly- spotofbad weather, leave the aircraft to get adds to journey times and puts constraints ing over southern Europe. In an adjacent on with it. This is made possible because on the system because ofthe need to main- room another group are monitoring flights the trajectory of each plane has been tain the safe separation ofplanes. over part ofAsia, and next door all eyes are worked outbycomputerssome 25 minutes on South America. These flights are not in advance and the pilots have already Flying ahead “live” butare simulated byIndra, a Spanish been informed ofany adjustments needed A much-needed revamp is under way. Al- technologycompany, to train controllers in to prevent a potential conflict. Provided though suffering from delays and budget the operation of a new generation of air- each aircraft sticks to its flight plan, there is constraints, America’s NextGen air-traffic- traffic-management systems that promises no need for the controllers to intervene. modernisation programme is slowly tak- to make flyingmore efficient by shortening Traditionally, air-traffic controllers have ing shape. Europe is part way through the flight times and reducing delays. played a more proactive role in keeping air- Single European Sky initiative, which is What is different about these virtual craft apart. The corridors which jets fly supposed to increase co-operation be- flights is that some are “free-routing”, alongfunction much like lanes on a motor- tween a reduced number of control cen- which means pilots have the freedom to way. They pass through sectors and each tres. Japan also has a project in hand to ren- set their own courses instead of following sectorismonitored byair-trafficcontrollers ovate its air-traffic-control systems. one another along established flight corri- with the assistance of radar. When an air- One element of this modernisation in- dors, as they presently do. Free-routing al- craftis about to entera new sector, the pilot volves fitting new kit to aircraft. This is a lows an aircraft to fly more directly to its and controller communicate by radio. The system called Automatic Dependent Sur- destination, which for European journeys controller then gives the pilot instructions veillance-Broadcast (ADS-B). It will be alone would knock ten minutes off aver- to maintain a safe separation, both verti- compulsory for jets in Europe by 2017 and age flight times, thus saving fuel and reduc- cally and horizontally, from other aircraft. in America by 2020. ADS-B uses satellite ing carbon-dioxide emissions. It is a tried and trusted method, but one navigation for pilots to determine their po- On the face of it, free-routing seems like that will struggle to cope with future de- sition and is generally more accurate than a disaster in the making. If fast-moving jets mand forairtravel. Thiswill be huge. In the radar and radio-navigation aids. This al-1 16 Air-traffic control The Economist Technology Quarterly September 6th 2014 With trajectory-based management, the flight should be smoother and shorter

2 lows aircraft to be safely spaced closer to- the flight should be smoother and shorter, would have alerted controllers that the air- gether, which permits more planes to be in says Mr Gavin (see illustration). And it is craft was not keeping to its trajectory soon the air at the same time. Crucially, though, more likely to arrive on time. after it changed course. it also establishes a data linkto control cen- The ability to predict the arrival time Beinghighlyautomated, the newgener- tres and to otherplanes by regularly broad- more accurately should mean less circling ation of air-traffic-management should casting an aircraft’s identification sign, its in holding patterns while planes wait to also help with the commercial use of civil- position and other information. land, says Alastair Muir, operations direc- ian drones. Aviation authorities are facing These data, when combined with the tor at Prestwick. That would allow more increasing pressure from companies to al- known trajectory of the aircraft, mean aircraft to use what is called a “continuous low drones to be used for a variety of ap- flight-management can now be “based on descent approach” when coming in to plications, ranging from aerial photogra- where we know the aircraft will be at any land. This is a procedure which involves a phy to surveying, search and rescue, particular time,” says Gonzalo Gavin, the longer descent, more like a steady glide to- delivering goods and providing temporary director of a programme at Indra to install wards the runway. It requires less engine Wi-Fi. Guidelines are slowly emerging, but such a system at a control centre in Prest- thrust than having to level out at various generally the operation of civil drones re- wick, Scotland, run by NATS, a British com- stages of the approach, so it saves fuel and mains restricted in most countries, particu- pany. The Prestwick centre provides en- is also quieter. larly the United States. route services across northern Britain and A wholesale switch to free-routing will With data-driven systems like ADS-B for flights crossing part of the busy North not take place overnight—the aviation in- and trajectory management, monitoring Atlantic. Known as iTEC (for interoperabil- dustry is notoriously cautious in introduc- the flight path of a drone can be automat- ity Through European Collaboration), the ing new technologies and procedures. At ed, says Benjamin Trapnell ofthe Universi- trajectory-based system was developed by first pilots are likely to pick from a number ty of North Dakota, which was one of the Indra with air-traffic providers in Spain, of available routes before free-routing firstinstitutionsto launch graduate courses Germany, Britain and the Netherlands as completely takes off. in operating drones. part ofthe Single European Sky initiative. It should enhance safety with an early Test flights by BAE Systems in Britain In a typical flight, a pilot may climb, de- alarm should something go wrong. Al- have also shown how a drone can be scend, change course at various points and though no one knows what happened to made to respond to air-traffic-control in- speed up or slow down numerous times. Malaysian Airlines flight MH370, which structions. This is done by having radio But with trajectory-based management, disappeared in March, the new systems communications to and from the drone re- layed via a “pilot in command”, who would be a drone operator on the ground. Smarter skies That operator might well be in charge of Effect of trajectory-based air-traffic management more than one drone. With the cost of op- TODAY TRAJECTORY-BASED erating a drone only a fraction of that of a helicopter or light aircraft, the civilian use ofunmanned aircraftis bound to make the sky an even busier place. This is yet anotherreason why the long- awaited modernisation of air-traffic con- trol is welcome, says Andrew Charlton, head of Aviation Advocacy, a Swiss-based consultancy. But he thinks it should go much further. Organising more airspace along functional lines rather than around national borders, as much of it now is, would greatly improve efficiency—espe- cially in Europe. And with systems based on data, he says more competition should be possible, giving pilots a choice of air- traffic-management providers. Flight paths follow historic routes and often involve Free-routing is possible, reducing fuel consumption EU stacking and CO emissions Nevertheless, the gushes about the 2 prospects. It expects trajectory-manage- ment to enhance safety by leaving less room for human error. It hopes the Single European Sky initiative will provide the ability to handle three times as many flights, cut air-traffic-control costs and pro- duce savings for airlines worth some €9 billion ($12 billion) a year. It also says that aircraft will on average land within one Flight levels given to pilots by controllers during the A smoother trajectory requires less controller minute of their scheduled arrival time. flight intervention Weary air travellers will be forgiven ifthey The Economist Sources: INDRA; thinkthat is a bit ofpie-in-the-sky. 7 The Economist Technology Quarterly September 6th 2014 Brain scan 17 Welcome to my genome

direct genome sequencing: determining the exact order ofnucleotides within DNA. George Church is a genetics pioneer These nucleotides contain four nucleo- whose research spans treating bases (adenine, guanine, cytosine and diseases, altering bodies and a thymine) that form base-pairs and give the desire to breed woolly mammoths DNA molecule its famous double-helical structure. He also came up with the idea E IS a professor ofgenetics at Harvard of“multiplexing”, where many pieces of HMedical School, but George Church is DNA are sequenced simultaneously rather also a vegan, cannot hold a tune, gave up than one by one. driving due to narcolepsy and suffers In the late 1980s Dr Church helped headaches after running. Technology organise the internationally funded Hu- Quarterly did not discover these intimate man Genome Project, whose aim was to details through surveillance, interrogation sequence all 3.3 billion base-pairs within a or going through his trash, but simply by human genome. Even before it started, he browsing a website where Dr Church was not satisfied with the programme makes such particulars freely available, because the goal was one genome, and a and much more besides. The Personal very expensive genome at that. The Genome Project (PGP), a medical study sprawling effort eventually took15 years, designed by Dr Church and for which he cost around $3 billion and delivered a was the first subject, even allows visitors genome that was a blend ofdifferent to download his entire genome and rum- individuals and riddled with gaps. mage through his DNA. Although it was an historic milestone, It is all part ofa grand experiment to it had relatively little value in practical, help researchers explore the interactions personal or medical terms, says Dr between genetics, environment, behav- Church. “What I really wanted was for iour and disease, with the ultimate goal of everybody to have their genome and developing customised therapies for ideally everybody to share their genome, individuals. The only way to do this, Dr and for that we needed to bring the price Church believes, is with complete open- way down.” ness. “It really is hard to do good science on closed data sets,” he says. To compare, Genetics to go say, a study on autoimmunity in a group In 1994 his automated technologies led to ofpeople with a study on their general the first commercial genome sequence, health could well prove impossible be- that ofa bacterium that causes stomach cause ofanonymity. But with open data, ulcers, and later to dramatic improve- Dr Church and his colleagues have man- ments in the accuracy and cost ofsequenc- aged to conduct 25 different studies on the ing human genomes, reducing the cost to same group in just one month. around $1,000 today. Since 2007, Dr The idea is that linking genes to out- Church has co-founded 12 biotech compa- comes, whether deadly diseases or talents nies and advised many more. like singing, requires a huge array of raw One ofthese, Genia, is commercialis- data about people’s lives, diets and their ing a process called nanopore sequencing surroundings; data that do not sit well that Dr Church first devised in 1988. Dis- with traditional notions ofprivacy. Dr tinct polymer tags are attached to each of Church is seeking volunteers willing to the four nucleotides poised to contribute waive confidentiality and lay bare their to a single molecule ofreplicating DNA. As genetic code, medical records and daily they react, the tags are released near a habits to the world. More than 3,500 peo- protein layer full oftiny holes called nano- ple have done so. While the PGP expects to pores. Each tag blocks the flow ofelectrical eventually enroll 100,000 subjects, Dr ions across the layer in a different way. Church is already dreaming much bigger: Because it relies on electronics rather than “We’re constructing it a little like Wikipe- optics, nanopore sequencing promises dia, which has beat out all the proprietary faster, cheaper sequencing. Dr Church closed systems. Ifenough people see holds up a fingernail-sized chip containing enough benefit from it, it could scale to a 128,000 nanopores that he reckons will billion people.” bring the cost ofsequencing down to $100. Such an undertaking would have been In June, Genia was acquired by Roche, a unimaginable, and unimaginably expen- Swiss pharmaceuticals giant. sive, a decade ago. Dr Church has done Sequencing a genome is one thing, but much himselfto make it possible. His 1984 interpreting it and understanding it is Harvard PhD included the first method for quite another. Dr Church’s endeavours in 1 18 Brain scan The Economist Technology Quarterly September 6th 2014

“Making new petroleum should be as simple and straightforward as brewing beer.”

2 that field are equally impressive. In 2007 Slightly less drastic might be using a rism. Synthetic biology is potentially more he co-founded Joule Unlimited, a biofuels tool like MAGE to make hundreds of dangerous than chemical or nuclear company that hopes to use genetically changes to a person’s genetic code, which weaponry since organisms can self-repli- engineered bacteria to convert waste converts genetic information into useful cate and spread rapidly, says Dr Church. carbon dioxide directly into fuels. As a lot proteins. Altering enough ofthe right “There has to be industry-wide surveil- ofthe problems with the bioreactor and nucleotides at once could eliminate the lance, licensing and rigorous testing. But the genetics have been solved, he says: specific sequences that viruses need to it’s futile to try to keep things out of the “Making new petroleum should be as reproduce, but still produce the necessary scientific literature. Even ifyou could stop simple and straightforward as brewing proteins required for that person’s well- the dissemination ofresults, it would beer.” But the margins are tight and it is being. “This process is probably easier mean that only the bad guys would do unclear yet whether the process will be than changing ourselves into mirror peo- research and none ofthe good guys could commercially competitive. ple,” says Dr Church. see what’s going on.” Another project that excites Dr Church But would anyone want to go to such Now entering his seventh decade, Dr is Revive and Restore, a controversial effort an extreme? In the future Dr Church sees a Church has no plans to retire. “Reversal of to bring backanimals and plants from world in which individuals tinker with ageing is high on my list ofthings to do, extinction. There are certain species, he their DNA to eliminate diseases, give their and not just because I’m getting old,” he

believes, that are good for humanity and offspring extra abilities or simply to look says. The tools are now available to make 

in order to keep them alive it is necessary more attractive ery few people currently rapid progress. “We’ve taken my 60-year- to conserve the whole ecosystem they live try to obtain information about their old fibroblast [connective tissue] cells, in, too. To do that, he says, may well re- propensity to carry diseases, which Dr changed them into a different form and quire reviving some species that are al- Church reckons is one ofthe best ways of then backto fibroblasts and they’re young ready extinct. controlling disease. “But we are willing to again, most ofthe time. Turning that into a For example, Dr Church thinks that fix things that aren’t broken, for example whole body therapy is another leap but woolly mammoths could help prevent the with cosmetic surgery.” This is why Dr my point is that we can do it.” Arctic permafrost from melting. Their Church thinks there will be a desire for Ifhis body fails before the science is grazing would invigorate the flora growing people to change themselves substantial- ready, Dr Church has a backup plan, liter- on the surface, which would provide more ly. “We already are radically different from ally. He was one ofthe scientists behind protection from the sun. His laboratory is our ancient ancestors, augmented with the BRAIN Initiative (Brain Research developing a robotic system called mul- cellphones, computers, cars and jets. To through Advancing Innovative Neurotech- tiplex automated genome engineering draw a sharp line between physics and nologies), a $3 billion, decade-long project (MAGE) that can perform up to 50 different biology doesn’t make any sense.” announced by President Obama in 2013 to genome alterations at nearly the same map the human brain. Innovation in time, creating billions ofvariants in a To boldly go biotechnology is proceeding rapidly matter ofhours. MAGE would allow To travel beyond the Earth, astronauts enough to consider copying a brain. “Ifwe scientists to start with an intact genome of could also have their bodies altered to give can come up with a way ofbacking up my a living Asian elephant and change it them a better chance ofsurviving the brain into another that I have in my back- wholesale into one that is comparable to journey. They could be genetically engi- pack, we’ll do it,” he says with a smile. an extinct mammoth, using information neered to resist radiation and osteoporo- “People talkthemselves out ofthings very pieced together from frozen fragments of sis, a weakening ofthe bones which easily. Things that they thinkare a million mammoths. Passenger pigeons, dodos, would result from prolonged weightless- years away or never, are actually four giant auroch cattle and even Neanderthals ness. Those that remain on Earth could be years away.” 7 might follow. altered to reduce their carbon footprint. But de-extinction is not ambitious “All the discussion is about how to make Offer to readers enough for Dr Church. Synthetic genomics buildings bigger rather than people small- Reprints of Technology Quarterly are available has the potential to change the course of er,” he told a conference at the Massachu- from the Rights and Syndication Department. evolution, “with the difference that [it] will setts Institute ofTechnology earlier this A minimum order of five copies is required. be under our own conscious deliberation year. “We’re well beyond Darwinian and control,” he writes in his book“Rege- limitations to evolution. Evolution right Corporate offer nesis”. Ultimately, he thinks that will now is in the marketplace,” he now says. Customisation options on corporate orders of mean altering humanity itself. Even objects could be revolutionised 100 or more are available. Please contact us to discuss your requirements. A project that interests him would be by genomics. DNA is a good way ofstoring For more information on how to order special engineering human cells to resist all information. It is possible to use it to store reports, reprints or any queries you may have known viruses. He suggests two ways of data for 700,000 years at a million times please contact: doing this. The first would involve creating the density oftoday’s disc drives, says Dr “mirror” humans—recoding a person’s Church. In 2012, he encoded “Regenesis” The Rights and Syndication Department DNA to switch the chirality, or handed- into DNA and made 70 billion copies of it. The Economist 20 Cabot Square ness, oftheir entire body at the molecular Dr Church is beginning discussions with London E14 4QW level. It would render that person immune data-storage companies about commer- Tel +44 (0)20 7576 8148 to viruses, but at the cost ofthem being cialising the technology. Fax +44 (0)20 7576 8492 unable to digest most normal foods or The fantastical possibilities ofgeno- e-mail: [email protected] interact with the natural microbiome that mics and the rapid democratisation of its www.economist.com/rights helps to keep their gut healthy. technologies raise the spectre ofbioterro-