ANALYSIS CHINA
TAIWAN
AFTER THE ELECTION
Introduction
ABOUT by François Godement The Chinese have long been obsessed with strategic culture, power balances and geopolitical shifts. Academic institutions, think tanks, journals Taiwan is important as an unresolved issue. It is also the and web-based debate are growing in number and European Union’s fifth-largest trade partner in Asia and a quality and give China’s foreign policy breadth and source of major investment abroad. For years, Europe has depth. had a very simple two-sided declaratory policy – no use of China Analysis, which is published in both French force and no independence – that has been likened to a “one and English, introduces European audiences to China” policy. Under that mantle, relations have expanded, these debates inside China’s expert and think-tank including a visa-free policy of greeting Taiwanese tourists world and helps the European policy community and businessmen. For these reasons, Europe’s approach understand how China’s leadership thinks appears now stationary. During his first term in the past about domestic and foreign policy issues. While freedom of expression and information remain five years, President Ma Ying-jeou has greatly stabilised restricted in China’s media, these published political cross-strait relations, helped by China’s decision to sources and debates provide an important way of be patient. Taiwan has collected the economic profits and understanding emerging trends within China. also opened itself to visitors from the mainland for the first time since 1949. Each issue of China Analysis focuses on a specific theme and draws mainly on Chinese mainland sources. However, it also monitors content in Taiwan is also one of the world’s most lively democracies, with Chinese-language publications from Hong Kong a free press and endless debates and criticism of government. and Taiwan, which occasionally include news and Ma Ying-jeou’s re-election was by no means assured, as analysis that is not published in the mainland and there were domestic sources of discontent, particularly reflects the diversity of Chinese thinking. with a lower growth rate and the impact of the numerous The French version of China Analysis can be industrial relocations to the mainland. But his opponent, accessed online at www.centreasia.eu. Tsai Ing-wen, struck a moderate note in the campaign – and did not gain from this. Never had mainland China been so accommodating during a Taiwanese presidential campaign. In fact, the PRC’s television networks carried many debates with Taiwanese participants – giving mainlanders a glimpse of what Chinese political democracy could be. In the end, Taiwan’s electorate chose not to reject a team and a policy 2 April 2012 CHINA ANALYSIS Europe should increase mutual exchanges and flows with flows and exchanges mutual increase should Europe Taiwan’s self-interest to deepen relations with the EU and EU the with relations deepen to self-interest Taiwan’s Taiwan. A free trade agreement, and – why not? – a mutual rather peace of perils the faces now therefore PRC The stability continued expect to one lead developments These og og f ore Erpas hud o oe push more no should Europeans course. of Kong Hong access to public markets would give an example to others to example an give would markets public to access pro- a by polls the at threatened is he that argument the and Taiwan between interdependence more and ovrey i a ul dvlpd hns dmcay can democracy Chinese developed fully a if Conversely, oetc oiia ise sne hn de nt cet the accept not does China since issue, political domestic is situation The mainland. Not Kong. Hong in the situation electoral the by compounded on applied be cannot relayed debates its see even and PRC the with co-exist only do political opponents carry a majority for the elected the for majority a carry opponents political do only aua tmtto fr ejn’ srtg-idd leaders strategy-minded Beijing’s for temptation natural onthe play nolonger can Ma A winning reunification. ihu a agae are, t s nvial ta some that unavoidable is it barrier, language a without have they interval peaceful the on collect to be would mainland Chinese voices will ask why the same democracy same the why ask will voices Chinese mainland First, trends. counterveiling also are there Yet mainland. h evlp o dmcay hn h Uie Sae – as – States United the than democracy on envelope the isa this And conflict. of situation clear-cut a than that localpro-Beijinglobbieshavefragmentedsomewhat. peaceful but quo status peaceful not is goal PRC’s the that wereworkingtotheisland’sadvantage. its memberstates. in also evidently is It Japan. or PRC the whether Asia, in Instead, remarkable. been has trend prevailing the is, it internationalisation of the Taiwan question, not to mention The 2015. before not least at or – opposition independence at f og ogs eiltv Cucl bt t s possible is it but Council, legislative Kong’s Hong of part provided.
were posted on Sina Weibo, the major Chinese microblog 1. Reactions on the mainland to the Taiwanese service.5 Writer Yang Jingjie says the Taiwan polls are election a “laboratory of democracy”. But he adds in the article comments in Chinese that the election represents a public endorsement of the “1992 consensus”, the compromise by Jean-Pierre Cabestan reached in 1992 by Beijing and Taipei that says there is only one China but each side is free to interpret in its own way Sources: what “one China” means.6 Chen Ruoyan, “Different opinions in the Chinese Communist Party over future cross-strait relations”, In its Chinese issue, the Global Times raises the familiar Zhengming, February 2012, pp. 15–16.1 spectre of the break-up of the country to brand bloggers’ 7 “It’s lucky that China has a Taiwan”, Kaifang, No. 2, calls for similar elections on the mainland naïve . February 2012.2 In a bilingual editorial, the Global Times says mainland China had a large influence on the outcome of the Taiwan Zhou Yongkun, “The ‘presidential’ election in Taiwan elections: “The DPP [Democratic People’s Party], which and political reform on the mainland”, Caijing Blog, denies the 1992 consensus, was not only defeated twice by 16 January 2012, http://blog.caijing.com.cn/expert_ Ma Ying-jeou, but also, to a large extent, by the power of article-151500-32017.shtml.3 the Chinese mainland. In one way, the election in Taiwan Zheng Zhenqing, “Perspectives on the 2012 ‘presidential reflects the rise of China. If the economic development of election’ in Taiwan; between living standards and the the Chinese mainland had been in decline for the past eight question of identity”, author’s blog, China Elections, years, the debates and the results in this year’s Taiwan 14 January 2012, http//:chinaelections.org/NewsInfo. elections would have been quite different.”8 asp?NewsID=221297.4 Guan Ling, “The Taiwan elections must be considered What fascinated the Chinese bloggers about the elections scientifically”, 14 January 2012, Jingji guangcha wang, was the reality of electoral choice.9 Some users were a little China Elections, http://chinaelections.org/NewsInfo. vulgar, like this one from Shanghai: “With ballots, Taiwan asp?NewsID=221289. officials have to bow to the voters; without ballots, the ‘Fart 10 Ding Liting, “Which Taiwan experiences should the People’ have to kneel to them”. Others used grim humour: mainland study?”, author’s blog, China Elections, “Just now, a Taiwanese friend said to me at the end of our 16 January 2012, http://www.chinaelections.org/ conversation, ‘I am going to vote tomorrow morning and NewsInfo.asp?NewsID=221364. by the evening we will know who the President will be.’ At the time, I couldn’t think how to reply to him. Although we usually have no real barriers in communicating, I was The most unexpected aspect of the recent elections in deeply ashamed. I could only say, ‘You in Taiwan, you are Taiwan was the interest they generated in China. Taiwan’s very backward. If we were having an election tomorrow, we democratic elections have never before been so closely followed on the other side of the strait. The huge upsurge 5 Yang Jingjie, “Millions Follow Taiwan Polls”, Global Times, in interest can be traced back to the rise of social media, 16 January 2012, http://www.globaltimes.cn/NEWS/tabid/99ID692291/ particularly micro-blogging. China now has an estimated Millions-follow-Taiwan-poll.aspx. 250 million bloggers. And as attention focused on the 6 This idea was widely disseminated in the official media: see “Key Taiwanese democratic project, many Chinese used the elections for the people of Taiwan”, Renminwang, 14 January 2012, events to raise questions about their own political system. http://tw.people.com.cn/GB/16878101.html; “Taiwanese public opinion: Ma Ying-jeou’s victory reflects popular approval of the ‘1992 consensus’ The Hong Kong magazine Zhengming says Kuomintang and the peaceful development of cross-strait relations”, Xinhuawang, (KMT) leader Ma Ying-jeou’s re-election has given new 15 January 2012, http://www..xinhuanet.com/tw/2012-01/15/c_111439624. impetus to the debate within the Chinese Communist Party htm. (CCP) leadership about whether to accelerate the reform 7 See in particular the editorial of Huanqiu shibao – Global Times for process and whether to take more definite steps towards 17 January 2012, “Da Zhongguo bushi mianfei wucan”. Under this headline, which could be translated literally as “Great China is not a free reunification. breakfast”, the article argues that if China is to be strong and united, the idea of introducing Western-style democracy as in Taiwan must be shelved. Looking for democracy “Da Zhongguo bushi mianfei wucan”, Huanqiu shibao – Global Times, 17 January 2012, http://opinion.huanqiu.com/roll/2012-01/2363549.html. In its English version, the establishment newspaper Global 8 Editorial, Global Times, 16 January 2012, http://opinion.huanqiu.com/ roll/2012-01/2359674.html. Times recognises the depth of mainland Chinese interest in 9 Along with the articles cited at the beginning of this article, some of the these elections. Nearly 3 million comments about the polls blog entries mentioned have been selected and translated into English on the websites China Digital Times and China Media Project. 1 Chen Ruoyan is a journalist for the Hong Kong magazine, Zhengming. ����������������������������������� “Taiwan Election on Sina Weibo �(������Update�)���������������������������”, 13 January 2012, http:// 2 Article by an anonymous Kaifang journalist. chinadigitaltimes.net/2012/01taiwans-election-on-sina-weibo. This 3 Zhou Yongkun is a professor at Suzhou University, Jiangsu. comment bears a certain resemblance to the saying reported in James 4 Zheng Zhenqing is an associate professor at the Faculty of Public C. Scott’s Domination and the Arts of Resistance, “When the great lord Administration, Tsinghua University, Beijing. passes, the wise peasant bows deeply and silently farts”. 3 4 April 2012 CHINA ANALYSIS ����������������������������������� ������������������������������������������������������������������ ���� 13 January2012,http://chinadigitaltimes.net/2012/01taiwans-election- ������������������������������������������������������������ 16 15 i ipn’ edr sister). elder Jinping’s Xi & Unwin, 2009 ). Quoted by Ying Chan, “Elections in Taiwan set the 3.89 million followers, wrote: “It’s lucky that China has a Taiwan ( h wl-nw bogr Yo a, h wie udr the under writes who Bao, Yao blogger, well-known The or ignorance this is rival: real Ying-jeou’s Ma Ing-wen, Tsai neetnl, h Fbur 21 ise of issue 2012 February the Interestingly, ejn o 1 Otbr 01 wih a atne b the by attended was which 2011, October 18 on Beijing daughter. on-sina-weibo. a partyhasbeenoverthrownbythepeople,it’sfinished from shift to begun has elections Taiwan the in attention Other public figures reacted to the elections, such as famous (and Zhongxun Xi of daughter the Qianping, Xi and is China in elections of outcome “the joke: similar very a a r og is h peieta rc i Tia, the Taiwan, in race presidential the wins Song “Whether or microblog: his Ma on wrote He Xuecun. Murong ay hns tik h Tia eetos r re-opening are elections Taiwan the think Chinese Many electoral process itself. This reflects a greater awareness of awareness greater a reflects This itself. process electoral the to independence Taiwanese and relations cross-strait of centre “The reunification: than rather process electoral dictatorship to democracy and has eventually returned to returned eventually has and democracy to dictatorship of us who are watching from the sidelines […] Maybe the Maybe […] sidelines the from watching are who us of of Hu Yaobang, Luo Diandian, the daughter of Luo Ruiqing, article citedintheSourcesabove. relatives of leading officials, including Hu Deping, the son the Deping, Hu including officials, leading of relatives not beatallcontroversial imagine could straits the of sides both whether is issue real name, Wuyuesanren, also talks about the importance of the winner is ultimately Taiwan. This is a victory for the system writer and critic Hao Qun, who writes under the pseudonym in meeting a at Zhiguo Han economist the by made was would alreadyknowtodaywhobeelected ht pltcl at cn eom tef ad ht vn f it if even that and itself, reform can party political a that the history of the KMT. It has successfully transitioned from about talked people Some reform. political of question the the importance of elections and political rights among those [that is, Taiwan’s political system] political Taiwan’s is, [that show everyonethatChinatoohaselections!” holding elections like this. If they could, reunification would edited journal, the But advance!” in years several known power through free elections. “The Kuomintang shows us shows Kuomintang “The elections. free through power prudence? leaves office there is still a chance [for it to return]. But once Song Chu-yu, a very minor conservative candidate, and not and candidate, conservative minor very a Chu-yu, Song published in English as by Jin Zhong and published in Hong Kong, says the joke the says Kong, Hong in published and Zhong Jin by bar forChina”, hk/2012/01/17/18035. 幸亏中国有一个台湾 Comment from Darkilljou, “Taiwan Election on Sina Weibo HaoQunisknownforhisnovel “It’s luckythat Chinahasa Taiwan” isalsothetitle of the ibid. ibid. ������������������������������Qianping is the given name of China MediaProject Leave me alone, a Novel of Chengdu Xingkui Zhongguo Xingkui youge Taiwan 15 12 ”. a Ziu, hs bo has blog whose Zhiguo, Han Chengdu, jinye qing jiangwoyiwang , 17January2012,http://cmp.hku. ����������Xi An’an, 14 ”. Thewritermentions ���������������������Xi Zhongxun’s second Kaifang 13 . 11 ’”. (Update)”, ���������� carried , (Allen Kaifang 16 ) to ”. ,
‘makes no sense’ for people living in non-Christian cultures? Taiwan electionshasbegun The centre of attention in the �������������� hl pasn dmcay ti cmetr as draws also commentary this democracy, praising While Yu Keping, and his careful treatise, careful his and Keping, Yu ( h Tia eetos ae ie rs t aohr ie of line another to rise given have elections Taiwan The The answerisno.” If the system continues to rely on violence and force, in the in force, and violence on rely to continues system the If I believe that those who promote the idea that ‘democracy that idea the promote who those that believe I But Chen Ruoyan writes in democracy liberal for argument an makes also Zhou But Is thereaRepublicofChina? Ding Liting, another blogger writing on the oe oel, n mr cuiul, h bos rm the from blogs the cautiously, more and soberly, More Communist Party, we must remember the following truth: following the remember must we Party, Communist Christian cultures? […] does the fact that democracy has its thing gain strength by being tested ( xet hu ogu, poesr t uhu University, Suzhou at professor a Yongkun, Zhou expert economy, market industrialised the of environment current death – eorc? a cntttoa picpe ta hv their have that principles constitutional Can democracy? of the masses! Losing power can also be an opportunity to opportunity an be also can power Losing masses! the of rgn i Crsint b acpe i cutis ih non- with countries in accepted be Christianity in origins or are there not general principles of modern constitutional reformist media welcome the maturity ( re-election seems to justify Hu Jintao’s strategy of patience. of strategy Jintao’s Hu justify to seems re-election roots in the specific cultural soil of Christianity mean that it website, mentions both the precedent ( mainland is entering a critical phase (a question of life or life of question (a phase critical a entering is mainland to shiftfromcross-strait the Taiwanese electorate and politicians.Theconstitutional electorate Taiwanese the to beoverthrownbythepopularmasses!” to improve and to reform – in short, to earn a second chance! the only basis for power is the genuine and sincere support sincere and genuine the is power for basis only the the sovereignty of the Republic of China on Taiwan. Ma’s Taiwan. on China of Republic the of sovereignty the and Taipei and Beijing between conflict the about thinking that contradicts culturalist arguments against it: “Are there show They mainland. the on reform political to process itself. sus dmcay ut e ae seriously. taken be democracy’ to evil lesser ‘a find cannot must thing’ good a not is democracy issues, sooner or later, its corruption and illegitimacy will cause it cause will illegitimacy and corruption its later, or sooner support from a reference to the official intellectual reformist, independence totheelectoral high stakes of these elections for China: “As reform on the on reform “As China: for elections these of stakes high relations andTaiwanese s ht n vr mdr scey waee the whatever society, modern every in that us Keping is the associate director of the office of documentation and documentation of office the of director associate the is Keping translation oftheCCP CentralCommittee. 比民主更不坏
Yu Keping, ( 民主是一个好东西 生死有关的时刻 Democracy isaGoodThing , bi minzhugengbuhuai , shengsi youguan de shike , minzhu shiyige hao dongxi Zhengming 卧薪尝胆 Democracy is a good Democracy is that the election has thattheelection , (Brookings,2009). Yu 先例 “The winner did not did winner “The , )”. 承受 accepted defeat defeat accepted rcfly […These gracefully column for encouragement an are elections] wrote in his try to humiliate the humiliate to try loser and the loser and the loser wo xinchang dan China Elections , , xianli chengshou ) and the ) for the Caijing ) of ) 17 ), : .
re-ignited debate among some of the party leadership on culture of respecting differences while seeking harmony the best way to proceed. They feel that the 1992 consensus (和而不同, he er bu tong) […] all this should promote the could lead to a de facto recognition of the existence of the development of a model for mutual relations on both sides People’s Republic of China (PRC) on the mainland and the of the strait”18. Republic of China (RoC) on Taiwan. For some of the CCP leadership, this is a depressing situation (沮丧, jusang), Like Chen Ruoyan in Zhengming, Zheng Yongnian thinks because it removes any real prospect of unification. some Chinese leaders would like to accelerate the process of reunification. With some justification, some believe that These concerns suggest the possibility of a shift in mainland Ma Ying-jeou’s opposition to reunification within current thinking on the Republic of China. A comment from Guan political structures (one of his three “nos”) shows him to Ling on the website of the magazine Jingji Guancha ridicules be the main supporter of the “peaceful independence” of the idea of denying the existence of the Republic of China: Taiwan. However, what Zheng calls “the fever of over-hasty “According to the official history of the People’s Republic of reunification” 急统症 ( , jitongzheng) is unlikely, he thinks, China, the Republic of China disappeared in 1949 and was to catch on with the majority of the Chinese government. replaced by the PRC. Since then, the island of Taiwan has The negative effects it would bring about would be quickly only had the perverted remnants (余孽, yunie) of the KMT felt in terms of national identity and of encouraging a reactionaries. But the Democratic Progressive Party was revival of Taiwanese nationalism. formed in the early 1980s [in actual fact, it was formed in 1986], thanks to the policy of opening instituted by the then The human dimension of the elections caught the President of the Republic of China, Chiang Ching-kuo, as imagination of the Chinese public. As Kaifang and many well as to his legal and constitutional reforms. Therefore, if social media writers said, Tsai Ing-wen, even with her you follow the logic of the mainland, the DPP does not exist. separatist views, charmed more than one Chinese blogger All of the DPP’s policies, whether on the independence of with her style, her frankness, and her struggle for gender Taiwan or on rejecting the nuclear option, are the products equality – a sharp contrast with the male-dominated CCP. of a country that has already disappeared (灭绝, miejue).” The huge interest in these elections on mainland China was down to the existence of free choice in Taiwan, the Other internet commenters agree, taking a realist approach candidates’ personality and dignity, and the impossibility to current developments in Taiwan. In a very detailed of not comparing the Taiwanese example to the situation analysis of the Taiwan elections, Zheng Zhenqing, an in China. Will this encourage a return to debate on reform associate professor in the Faculty of Public Administration in China – or will it instead push the CCP leadership to at Tsinghua University, talks about Taiwanese identity on demand more from Ma Ying-jeou? his blog: “National identity is no longer expressed through a conflict between supporters of unification and supporters of independence; it is instead expressed more subtly in the debate over the ‘Taiwanisation of the Republic of China’, which is linked to and interrelates with social policies (民生, minsheng). The recent elections reveal a real rationalisation of policies, and they were on the surface less tense and confrontational than those of 2000, 2004, and 2008. But the complexity of public policy and identity politics has not diminished.”
Zheng’s last point shows that it is not just the existence but the sovereignty of the RoC that is in question – a serious issue for all Taiwanese people, whatever their partisan affiliations. Although still a delicate subject in the PRC, the question of sovereignty was tackled by Zheng Yongnian, director of the East Asian Institute at the National University of Singapore, in a widely read article in Taiwan’s leading Chinese language newspaper, Lianzhe Zaobao (United Morning News). After highlighting the fact that the new situation will force the DPP to moderate its stance on China, Zheng argues that “sovereignty” is distinct from the “right to govern”: “China is not claiming the right to govern Taiwan (治权, zhiquan) but only sovereignty (主权, zhuquan) over it. The concept of sovereignty is changing constantly and rapidly, because economic and social interactions across the strait cannot ������������������������������������������������������������������������ Zheng Yongnian, “Taiwanese democracy and the future of cross-strait be shut down, and China is also developing a diplomatic relations”, Lianhe Zaobao, 31 January 2012, http://www.zaobao.com/ special/forum/pages8_zp12013a.shtml. 5 6 April 2012 CHINA ANALYSIS ���������������������������������������������������������������� i hg pplrt rtns n awn onie wt a with coincided Taiwan in ratings popularity high His expanding on go Ying-jeou Ma President can long How of ChineseCulture. andcross-strait affairs Chinese of in charge rank ministry with office er, awns oiia pris ae en campaigning been have parties political Taiwan’s years, China? gave Taipei an earlier chance at gaining strategic advantage. oe o n n. u h tik Tie md go ue of use good made Taipei thinks Chi Su end. an to come combination of domestic and international factors. In recent cohesion, andrestartedeconomicgrowth. ����������������������������������������������������������������������������� ������������������������������������������������������������������� ny at ya. a igjo’ eeto i Mrh 2008 March in election Ying-jeou’s Ma year. a last only with relationship its of nature the and status Taiwan’s on of democratisation have become more apparent: the people there 1980s, late the in Taiwan of democratisation the of relationship with democratic rule has matured. The benefits new introducing of pace the and policy affected necessarily negotiations beginning without Beijing with relations will be a significant time period before the parties have theparties before period time significant a be will oet f aorbe nentoa oiin towards opinion international favourable of moment Strategic Studiesat Tamkang University, Taiwan. o ei cmagig gi – hr wl b n elections no be will there – again campaigning begin to security the improved government Ma’s opportunity. that a that relieved was particular in Washington island. the initiatives. But now, for the first time since the beginning the since time first the for now, But initiatives. National Security Council from 2008to2010.Hepreviously served under taei opruiy o Tia” Bt hs idw will window this But Taiwan”. for opportunity strategic iuto i te awn tat srntee national strengthened Strait, Taiwan the in situation Lee Teng-hui as Chairman of the Committee on Mainland Affairs, an eid f egtnd esos ne Ce Su-in had Shui-bian Chen under tensions heightened of period u h, omr ainl euiy dio t M Ying-jeou, Ma to advisor security national former Chi, Su u trbts 02s oet f potnt t a to opportunity of moment 2012’s attributes Su o eeto eey er Te osat lcineig has electioneering constant The year. every election for before 2016. Su also believes that the Taiwanese people’s Taiwanese the that believes also Su 2016. before of window “a of opening the seen has 2012 that believes relations. Alexander Huang Chieh-cheng, “Stability in the Taiwan the in “Stability Chieh-cheng, Huang Alexander 21 January2012 2012 2. si ihu”a igjo’ miln plc atr his after policy mainland Ying-jeou’s Yi-hsu,”Ma Tsai Taiwan”, a loss of Washington’s support would increase the risk of re-election”, war”, strategic environment Strait depends on our relationship with the United States; for opportunity strategic of window new “A Chi, Su Sources: by MathieuDuchâtel SuChiwastheGeneralSecretaryofRepublicChina’s Tsai Yi-hsu isa professor ofPolitical Science at the Taiwan University Alexander Huang Chieh-cheng is a professor in the department of Ma Ying-jeou’s mainland strategy in a changing 19 Lianhebao –UnitedDailyNews . Lianhebao – UnitedDailyNews Lianhe News Zaobao Morning – United 21 . , 9March2012 1 March 1 , 20 . ,
武 ( French armaments. In 1995, his visit to Cornell University Cornell to visit his 1995, In armaments. French awn bsd n i picpe o “h 19 consensus” 1992 “the of principles his on based Taiwan, United the of those with closely more policies Taiwanese Republic of China. He has tried to “deal with simple issues simple with “deal to tried has He China. of Republic it although allies, diplomatic new for search a started He He put forward a theory of “a State on either side of the strait”. msie xaso o prhss f mrcn and American of purchases of expansion massive a years 20 last the for that says Su front, geopolitical the On so, even But corruption. by affected less is island the and are protected by the rule of law, basic rights are guaranteed, and the triple “no” – that is, “’no’ to unification, ‘no’ to ‘no’ unification, to “’no’ is, that – “no” triple the and hn hiba hd i on e plce o strategy. on policies new own his had Shui-bian Chen gives themitsimplicitsupport. general. The main outcome of Chen’s initiatives was to align characterisation of cross-strait relations as “special state to state “special as relations cross-strait of characterisation dialogue political unofficial” “officially the up set He edge. challenges facingtheisland’sdemocraticsystem. international attract to inability island’s the and demand, does not openly subscribe to any of Ma’s principles, but it but principles, Ma’s of any to subscribe openly not does diplomatic ties with the 24 countries that still recognise the maintain to Taipei allows agreement The allies. diplomatic other and has maintained the strategic initiative throughout, ones” ( ones” in referendums of number the in increase large a over eain wt Tie ad eonsd ejn. e ed a held He presided and constitution new a ratify to try to referendum Beijing. recognised and Taipei with relations with Beijing in the early 1990s at the same time as overseeing was thwarted by China’s greater influence – during his term ou vvni ih hn, ae o a ai agreement tacit a on based China, with vivendi modus movement inTaiwan. hounan h Sri o Tia hs en h st o a historically a of site the been has Taiwan of Strait the in domestic growth insufficient countries, other to talent ofits use make to best how out figuring still is state the netr. h Tiaee epe r auey wr o the of aware acutely are people Taiwanese The investors. needne ad n’ o h ue f oc” ( force” of use the to ‘no’ and independence, in office, Senegal, Chad, and Costa Rica broke off diplomatic in Taiwan. state relations” ( relations” state ek tblt i te tat n eooi avnae for advantages economic and Strait the in stability seek has managed to play the United States and China off each off China and States United the play to managed has rcpttd h msie rss n h Sri. n hs 1999 his And Strait. the in crisis missile the precipitated dogs” two wags tail “one which in situation unprecedented is Taiwan environment, global competitive a In powers. pro-independence camp and upended the political balance political the upended and camp pro-independence large number of initiatives to hold onto Taiwan’s strategic Taiwan’s onto hold to initiatives of number large ic 20, a igjo’ miln plc hs en to been has policy mainland Ying-jeou’s Ma 2008, Since pro-independence the neutralise to and China, and States forcing the two major powers to adapt. Lee Teng-hui took a of loss the population, ageing its of because behind falling eoe ope oe, n eooi oe bfr political before ones economic and ones, complex before new seeking stop Taiwan that Taipei and Beijing between 一條尾巴搖兩條狗 , butong budubuwu ). With the exception of the 1992 consensus, Beijing 先經後政、先易後難 兩國論 , yitao weiba yao liang tiao gou yitao weibayaoliangtiao ). He has continued the diplomatic the continued has He ). , liangguolun , xianjing houzheng, xianyi ) put him firmly in the in firmly him put ) 不統不獨不 ). Taipei
Su helped define Ma’s mainland policy, so he defends its same time as US-China competition is heating up. This is results as quantifiable and concrete. He says Taipei has affecting policy in East Asia. From Taipei’s point of view, obtained three successive arms sales from the United the American pivot towards Asia is not necessarily a good States, as well as an increased international presence. It has thing. US-Taiwan relations are dominated by trade issues gained observer status at the World Health Organisation, and by the debate in Washington over the relevance of and the number of countries allowing visa-free travel from maintaining a mutual security understanding with Taiwan. Taiwan has risen from 53 in 2008 to 125 in February 2012, Washington thinks Ma Ying-jeou’s mainland policy is including, since 2010, the European Union, which Ma Ying- sensible and favourable to American interests. But even so, jeou claims as a major diplomatic success. In 2012, Taiwan a growing number of voices are calling for the “sacrifice of hopes to agree a visa exemption with the United States. Taiwan” (放棄台灣的辯論, fangqi Taiwan de bianlun) or, China is not opposed to this policy. But Ma’s policies may at least, for a halt to arms transfers. So, Taiwan needs to not be solely responsible for the expansion of visa-free reconsider its policy towards the US. It must strengthen its travel. The UK and Japan exempted Taiwanese tourists security partnership with the US in order to guarantee the from visa requirements before his election. island’s long-term security. Alexander Huang thinks that, at a time when all eyes are on China, the Taiwanese public But there is no guarantee that Taiwan will be able to keep up needs to refocus on the centrality of the relationship with its current strategic success. Su wonders whether the small the US for the island’s safety and survival. state, which does not have international recognition, will be able to keep its ascendancy over major powers in Ma’s Tsai Yi-hsu asks whether, now that he no longer has to face second four-year a re-election campaign, Ma will spend his new term trying Taipei has only one year to term. The region’s to build his legacy in world history. There is considerable reposition itself strategically equilibrium is concern in Taiwan about Ma’s mainland strategy. Some to keep its footing in a region dependent on worry that his rapprochement with China might even lead where things are moving fast. the relationship him to sacrifice Taiwan’s sovereignty, making the island a between China and “puppet democracy” (烏龍民主, wulong minzhu). Others the US, and that think Beijing will put pressure on Ma to force him to agree relationship is changing. The US has begun to shift its focus to negotiations on sovereignty. But on the other hand, some towards Asia. Both China and the United States are facing analysts think China will step up the economic and political changes at the top, with the upcoming presidential elections favours it has been granting Ma and maybe even organise in the US and the leadership transition in China after the a summit between him and Hu Jintao. Tsai Yi-hsu thinks 18th Party Congress. Su thinks that it is unnatural and Beijing’s policy towards Taipei will be based on the idea that illogical for a geostrategic situation to rest on an “imbalance” “eradicating seedlings to grow better plants is a bad choice” (取予失衡, quyu shisheng). But the consequences of any (揠苗助長只會壞事, yamiao zhuzhang zhi hui huaishi). rebalancing that shifts the centre of initiative from Taipei Forcing through an agreement would be counter-productive, to Beijing could disrupt cross-strait relations and the because the pressures would break the fragile consensus in triangular security arrangement with the US. Su concludes Taiwan backing Ma Ying-jeou’s mainland policy. that Taipei has only one year to reposition itself strategically to keep its footing in a region where things are moving fast. Ma Ying-jeou’s current priority is domestic policy. He needs to enact an ambitious economic policy to address the Alexander Huang thinks the next four years will see a implications of the European financial crisis for Taiwan’s slowdown in the progress of cross-strait relations. After exports and for Taiwanese investors’ foreign holdings. After four years of negotiations and the signing of 16 agreements, the legislative elections of January 2012, the Democratic cross-strait relations are stable. Taipei and Beijing have Progressive Party (DPP) holds 40 seats out of 113, up from stored up valuable experience in bi-lateral negotiations. But 27 after the last elections. The pro-independence Taiwan Ma’s logic of settling the easy questions first means that at Solidarity Union has three seats, as does the People’s First some point, things have to get more difficult. The number Party, which is close to the Kuomintang (KMT) on policy of easy issues is growing smaller and smaller. Bilateral but trying to distinguish itself from the governing party to negotiations have already entered a more challenging phase, give itself more credence as a political organisation. So the and the issues on the table are becoming more complex DPP cannot block KMT policy. But it still carries greater and sensitive. Alexander Huang says that this means new weight in opposition than it did in the previous legislative agreements will be less frequent. assembly.
Huang thinks the relationship between China and the US is The new Chinese leadership will affect Beijing’s political set to improve. He believes that Washington holds the key timetable for Taiwan: no new initiatives can be expected to the strategic balance in the Taiwan Strait. The American from Beijing before the Party Congress. It is unlikely that presence in Asia is changing, which will mean changes for there will be any new developments either in the run-up to Taiwan’s strategic position. The US is withdrawing from the plenary session of the National People’s Assembly in Iraq and refocusing its strategy onto the Pacific area, at the March 2013, when the new government and the President 7 8 April 2012 CHINA ANALYSIS ( api n Biig il otne ainl ad gradually and patiently continue will Beijing and Taipei unlikely is relations cross-strait of nature the and Taiwan cross-strait for opportunity” of “window the means This In 2015, the campaign for Ma’s successor as KMT candidate Li Keqiang, the new Politburo Standing Committee and the Ma cantakeonmainlandpolicy. election, most likely either Wu Tun-yi, the current prime current the Tun-yi, Wu either likely most election, onto theagendaonbothsidesofstrait. XiJinping, that, After confirmed. be will Republic the of e Tia plc ta wl poal tk sm tm to time some take probably will team policy Taiwan new eain wl oe bten h sme o 21 ad the and 2013 of summer the between open will relations actions the limit probably will effectively campaign to need iitr o Cu iln te ao o Nw api The Taipei. New of mayor the Li-lun, Chu or minister, ( “ Taiwan on “work the modify h rltosi bfr pltcl eoitos oe back come negotiations political before relationship the hostility” mutual “ending Party Communist Chinese the and level, military the at measures confidence-building to Ying-jeou’s Ma since clear been has As it. of out come to start of 2015. A peace agreement defining the status of status the defining agreement peace A 2015. of start have to lay the groundwork for the KMT candidate in the in candidate KMT the for groundwork the lay to have rbby o ekn a areet ewe te M and KMT the between agreement an seeking to probably presidential campaign of 2007–2008, priority will be given for 2012 and the first quarter of 2013 will be “deepening” be will 2013 of quarter first the and 2012 for will Ying-jeou Ma begin. will elections presidential the for ulig eain o a isiuinl ai. h keyword The basis. institutional an on relations building 結束敵對狀態 , jieshu didui zhuangtaijieshu didui 對台工作 . n h meantime, the In ). , duitai gongzuo duitai ).
qiantu jueyiwen The articles review the mistakes made in the DPP’s electoral n h mdl o te apin oiin ol see to seemed polls opinion campaign, the of middle the In umnag KT icmet M Yn-eu ws re- was Ying-jeou, Ma incumbent, (KMT) Kuomintang director of the DPP’s foreign policy. This resolution requires a referendum of the DPP andwasstrongly opposed byBeijing. This resolution was urnl to tad i te at’ tikn: Te first “The thinking: party’s the in strands two currently in says Ying-qiu Lin defeat. political a for conscience of crisis a by followed was defeat Taiwanese of focus the change to attempt this But election. elected. The DPP’s electoral strategy was partly to blame for �������������������������������������������� 2011. ���������������������������������������������� ������������������������������������������������������������������������ ��������������������������������������������������������������������� organisation thatisnowfacinganurgentneedforrenewal. the of issues fundamental the be to relations cross-strait or social increased policy his said, it because, injustice, of and directorof still being cited as the basis ofthe party’s mainland policy in interviews independent andsovereignstate. in December 2011 withHsiaoBi-khim,campaign spokesperson and Social Work attheNationalDonghwaUniversityinHualien. that is going on in the DPP as it tries to regroup after its after regroup to tries it as DPP the in on going is that in victory to (DPP) election presidential the Party Progressive Democratic the inequality. Tsai’s campaign did not want national identity national want not did campaign Tsai’s inequality. its candidates’ failure. Its platform focused mainly on social strategy and identify the main thrust of the internal debate internal the of thrust main the identify and strategy lead would Chia-chyuan Su and Ing-wen Tsai that show oiis i nt oe ih n sros vral f the of overhaul serious any party’s platform on cross-strait with relations come not did politics grounds the on policy economic Ma’s rejected It problems. to endorseanychangeinthe 1 February2012. 3. Wang Jian-zhuang, “The only road for the DPP to follow”, Lianhebao –UnitedDailyNews si n-e’ rsosblt fr h eetrl defeat”, electoral the for responsibility Ing-wen’s Tsai Zhongguo Shipao–ChinaTimes Progressive Party Lee Cheng-hung, “The problem is not with the floating the with not is problem “The Cheng-hung, Lee Wu between antagonism growing “The Ying-qiu, Lin Ing-wen’s Tsai for reasons four “The Chang-mo, Lee No. 1300,1February2012. I-ren”, Chiou and Nai-jen voters but the DPP’s inability to reformulate a mainland a reformulate to inability DPP’s the but voters defeat”, policy”, h Cegfn, Te eot ht a nt established not has that report “The Cheng-feng, Shi Sources: by HubertKilian The Resolution ontheFutureof Taiwan ( “Tsai inthelead,braintrustpollsays”, ShiCheng-fengischairman of theFacultyIndigenousStudiesand Wang Jian-zhuangistheformer chairman of theChina Times group A crisis of conscience in the Democratic Ziyou Shibao Xin Xinwen Xin Xin Xinwen. ) waspassedinMay1999atthe8thNationalCongress – – Liberty Times 24 status quo – Bt n 4 aur 21, the 2012, January 14 on But . Xin Xinwen Xin The Journalist Xin Xinwen Xin andclaims that Taiwan isan , 16February2012 , 9February2012 Taipei Times 台灣前途決議文 , 13 February 2012. 25 – . As a result, Tsai’s The Journalist that there are there that N. 1300, No. , , 3November 22 , 23 taiwan . . , strand involves thinking of ways to escape from the Tsai Ing-wen’s ten-year programme (十年政綱, shi nian stranglehold of the difference in electoral strength between zhenggang) were enough to attract the 800,000 votes she the KMT and the DPP using new strategies (路線檢討, needed from the centre ground. Lee points to the major flaw luxian taolun), and the second consists in reflecting on the in this programme: it was designed to attract the popular mistakes made during the electoral campaign 選舉技術檢討, masses at the expense of the middle classes where these xuanju jishu taolun)”. On the DPP’s mistakes, the analyses floating voters were concentrated. all agree on one main point: centrist voters did not support Tsai Ing-wen. On shoring up electoral strength, the writers Shih Cheng-feng, a Taiwanese expert on national identity, say the DPP is facing a dilemma on how it can change its believes that the report put out by the central committee of mainland policy without losing its base. Two months after the DPP in February 2012 was an attempt to defend Tsai Ing- the defeat, few internal party analyses have been published wen27. Shih says it gives as reasons for the defeat the KMT’s in the press on a debate crucial for the DPP’s future. in-built electoral advantage, the gap between voters’ stated So to outline the political direction the DPP is likely to take intentions and their actual vote, and the party’s strategic now, commentators examine the mistakes made during the mistakes, including its inability to generate a sense of crisis campaign. among its supporters (沒有危機處理, mei you weiji chuli) that could convince them to return to their home provinces Yang Wei-ren says two factors were decisive in the failure of to vote. He says the DPP could not have won the presidential the DPP. The first was the party’s inability to attract centrist race. The three key elements in any election, Shih says, voters to a revised mainland political programme. He says are party identification, candidate image, and political that “after her defeat, Tsai Ing-wen immediately recognised programme. the need for further reflection in the DPP on the cross-strait The DPP is facing a dilemma on The DPP faced issue, acknowledging that under her chairmanship, not how it can change its mainland difficulties in each enough had been done in that direction.” Yang thinks that policy without losing its base. area and made to return to power, the party is going to have to come up several missteps. with a new position that takes account of China’s economic Tsai Ing-wen attraction. The second factor was the party’s failure to mistrusted the militancy in her own organisation. The party convince the business community to support it rather had difficulty mobilising support because of its campaigning than the KMT. He says “the DPP must inspire sufficient style. And the DPP has still not recovered from its eight years confidence in the general public and the business world, in government. Shih says the party had to rely on divisions as well as in Beijing. To do that, it will have to change the in the KMT camp, while the KMT worked hard to block the DPP’s political stance on the issue of relations with China.” DPP’s access to the centre of the political spectrum.
Lee Chang-mo believes that the centrist voters, whose Lin Ying-qiu in Xin Xinwen links the party’s strategic support Tsai Ing-wen failed to win, decided the result of errors to the rivalry between Wu Nai-jen and Chiou I-ren, the election. He cites Hsu Hsin-liang, a former chairman of the two leading officials in charge of campaign strategy28. the DPP, who said during the campaign that “this election Lin Ying-qiu says one of Wu Nai-jen’s most serious mistakes will come down to the 3% of floating voters”26. Tsai Ing-wen was to think that the independent candidate, Soong Chu-yu, won 6,090,000 votes (45.63%) against 689,113,000 for would drop out of the race before the election under pressure Ma Ying-jeou (51.6%), a difference of 790,756 votes. Lee from the ultra-conservatives in the KMT and Beijing. says “these figures are very significant, and now serve as Chiou I-ren, knowing Soong’s obstinacy, thought he would a basis for discussion and analysis on reform within the stay in for the long haul. This disagreement at the top DPP.” Lee looks at the results of the presidential elections caused confusion in the DPP’s election strategy, preventing of 2004 and 2008 along with figures for voter participation it from capitalising on the division in the KMT. Lin agrees to estimate the level of support for the DPP at 45%. In that the DPP underestimated the importance of appealing this analysis, Tsai Ing-wen is not completely responsible to the centrist floating voters, due to an overly superficial for the defeat, since she carried her entire support base. ��������������������������������������������� “DPP members criticise election review”, Taipei Times, 17 February He says floating voters, that is, those who voted on strictly 2012. economic grounds (經濟選民, jingji xuanmin), represented �������������������������������������������������������������������� Wu Nai-jen was general secretary of the DPP before becoming the 10% of votes cast, of which 2.8% went to the independent director of a publicly owned company, Taisugar. While head of that candidate, Soong Chu-yu, 4% to Tsai Ing-wen, and 3% to company, he was involved in a corruption scandal, and in March 2012 Ma Ying-jeou. These economic voters decided the outcome was sentenced to a prison term for his part in the affair. He is appealing of the election. Neither the DPP’s social policies nor the sentence. He managed Hsieh Chang-ting’s campaign in 2008, and was one of the three leaders of the New Wave faction, whose dialogue ����� “���DPP hopefuls refirefine ne platforms��”,� Taipei Times, 10 April 2011. Hsu with Beijing going back as far as 1997 was revealed by Wikileaks. Hsin-liang was chairman of the DPP from 1991 to 1993 and from 1996 Chiou I-ren was the general secretary of the National Security Council to 1998, and had also been a member of the New Party in favour of a during Chen Shui-bian’s two terms in office, from 2000 to 2008, as well form of re-unification. He rejoined the DPP in 2008 and supported as general secretary to the Republic’s Presidential Office. He served as Hsieh Chang-ting in the Presidential campaign of 2008. He stood in the vice-premier from 2007 to 2008. He was also one of the co-leaders of DPP primaries to gain the party’s support and became an advocate of the New Wave faction. He was also condemned for corruption scandals complete economic opening to China. during the presidency of Chen Shui-bian. 9 10 April 2012 CHINA ANALYSIS 20 years ago, raised the DPP’s electoral backing from 25% from backing electoral DPP’s the raised ago, years 20 �������������������� 7 January2012. The DPP deniestheexistence of the1992consensus Tsai Ing-wen’s main proposal oncross-straitrelations. It wascriticised for ( ( The writer fiercely criticises what he considers anaive heconsiders what criticises fiercely writer The and employers major the of support the KMT the won This Taiwan and its political autonomy. He thinks the DPP needs In the “The says, who Cheng-feng, Shih with agrees Lin this, In e Ceghn hglgt te oiia dilemma political the highlights Cheng-hung Lee unity national a for proposal Tsai’s says Ying-qiu Lin He points to the lack of substance in the “Taiwan consensus” Lin finds a structural explanation for the DPP’s failure to failure DPP’s the for explanation structural a finds Lin devised programme a in Hsin-liang, Hsu that says Lin But the KMT moved more quickly and astutely to promote to astutely and quickly more moved KMT the But xinchao liuxi and causedfrictionbetweenWuNai-renChiouI-ren. trc cnrs vtr wti te at’ decision-making party’s the within voters centrist attract society. island’s the of needs and strengths the of analysis was alwaysin favour of economic relations with China. Along with government at the end of the campaign was another mistake defend Taiwan’ssovereignty. to mission its abandon never must DPP the But exchanges. because reform, for desire its in DPP the confronting exacerbated by the fact that the DPP had no clear programme”. ocrs f oes rm h cnr. u n comparable no But effort wasmadeinthiscycle. centre. the from voters of concerns ��������������������������������������������������������������������� f rs-tat eain ad h eoois involved, economics the and relations cross-strait of Chen Shui-bian,Chiu Tai-san, former Vice-Minister of Mainland Affairs, at theDPP. and Liang Wen-jie, formerdirector of thedepartment of Chinese Affairs etrd h DPs et oiiin’ tak o te issue. the on attacks politicians’ best DPP’s the neutered hc pas on iiay ik ad h epan, ignores explains, he and, risk, military down plays which was support mobilise to failure the by shown weakness atd o ihih eooi ad rs-tat issues. cross-strait and economic highlight to wanted agnlsto, utn i frhr eid h KMT. the behind further it putting marginalisation, its vagueness,evenwithintheDPP itself. in negotiations withBeijing. This “Taiwan consensus”represented in Taiwan mustbebroughttogetheraroundaconsensusonsovereignty Su Tseng-chang, Wu Nai-jen, and ChiouI-ren,othernotable members were to do further work on its mainland policies, so as to escape to as so policies, mainland its on work further do to against works that forces” of balance “asymmetrical the h 19 cness rm al o i te campaign the in on early from consensus 1992 the economic the for solutions with up coming by 39% to dooy f ec o te ai o a re rd agreement trade free a of basis the on peace of ideology esaig h pry o ie p t taiinl demand traditional its up give to party the persuading rcs. e as h od e Wv fcin ( faction Wave New old the says He process. Hong Chi-chang,formerlychairman of theStraitExchangeFoundation from the grip of the KMT and its framework for cross-strait its to add and base its erode only will sovereignty for through atransparentdemocratic process. This consensusshouldbe ratified by ratified under ChenShui-bian,Cheng Wen-tsang, MinisterofInformation under based ontheprinciple ofoneChina. It believes that all the political parties 自由貿易市場機制獲利 台灣共識 “Tsai speaks to speaks “Tsai Until 2006, whentheDPP votedtoabolishfactions,theNew Wave arliament and a referendum so as to present a united front united a present to as so referendum a and Parliament , taiwan taiwan gongshi Liberty Times ), whose members had a solid understanding solid a had members whose ), ���consensus’”, ‘Taiwan the about �������������������������������� NYT , ziyou maoyishichang jizhi huoli pooe b Ta Ing-wen Tsai by proposed ) a idpnet daily, independent an , Taipei Times 新潮流系 30 29 ), . . ,
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All the writers agree that the inconsistency of Tsai Ing-wen’s u a-e ad ho Irn sget te eea o the of renewal the suggests I-ren, Chiou and Nai-jen Wu Times ������������������������������������������������������������ se Cagtn’ mvs o pn h dbt ad the and debate the open to moves Chang-ting’s Hsieh DPP’s policyframeworkwillbeapainfulprocess. criticisms he draws from the from draws he criticisms Taiwanese on position its fudge to afford longer no can f pnos n h ise t h hat f h DPP the of heart the at issue the on opinions of anad oiy ot h eeto fr h DP Te party The DPP. the for election the lost policy mainland o ofot t pltcl eiae f eedn Taiwan’s defending of heritage political its confront to intra-party division, as evidenced by the differences between the polarisation of view in difficult very be to likely is oeegt. u a Les ril sos te P has DPP process This Shui-bian. Chen of legacy the and sovereignty the shows, article Lee’s as But sovereignty. ah ha wl b truu. i Yn-i tik ta the that thinks Ying-qiu Lin tortuous. be will ahead path modern fix”, LiuShih-chung,“TheDPP mustgetseriousaboutChina”, , 28February2012; Tung Chen-yuan,“Cross-straitissueneeds Taipei Times , 7March2012. Liberty Times showthatthe Taipei 31 .
and aspiring to progress in stability” (共體時艱 穩中求進, 4. The business world mobilises to re-elect gong ti shi jian wen zhong qiu jin), the writers said: “in the Ma Ying-jeou current economic situation, the candidate who supports the 1992 consensus will maintain stable cross-strait relations, enabling us to run our businesses without fear and to by Tanguy Le Pesant continue to care for our employees and their families.” They added, “without business, there are no jobs”. Sources: Tong Ze-rong, “Why are the bosses demonstrating The statement was published at the initiative of John Hsuan, this time?”, Lianhe Wanbao – United Evening News, vice-chairman of United Microelectronics Corporation 13 January 2012, p. A4. (UMC), the second largest maker of semiconductors in the world. It brought together several key figures from Taiwan’s Huang Qin-ya, “Supporting Ma and criticising Ma: industrial world who had not publicly endorsed candidates Chang Yung-fa and Yin Yen-liang voice their opinions”, in previous elections32. These business leaders included Xin Xinwen – The Journalist, No. 1297, 12–16 January Du Shu-wu, head of Synnex Technology International, 2012, pp. 56–58. and most of the employers from companies in the Hsinch Yin Yen-liang, “The five reasons to vote for Ma Ying- Technology Park (信竹科學園區, xinzhu kexue yuanqu). jeou”, Zhongguo Shibao – China Times, 12 January It was also signed by nearly all the heavyweights of 2012, p. A1. Taiwan’s industrial and financial institutions, including “Understanding the problems of our times and aspiring managing director of Hon Hai Precision Industry/Foxconn, to progress in stability”, advertisement, Pingguo Ribao – Terry Gou; chairman of the Evergreen Group, Apple Daily, 13 January 2012, p. A6. Chang Yung-fa; chairman of Taiwan Cement, Leslie Koo; “Under the leadership of President Ma, tourism is chairman of the Far Eastern Group, Douglas Hsu; and head progressing and Taiwan is sure to gain”, advertisement, of Cathay Financial Holdings, Tsai Hong-tu. Ziyou Shibao – Liberty Times, 12 January 2012, p. A9. Tong Ze-rong says that, whether they believed in the 1992 穩定的 The Taiwanese business community made an unprecedented consensus or just in “stable cross-strait relations” ( 兩岸關係 and decisive intervention in the 2012 presidential election. , wending de liang’an guanxi), the Taiwanese In the two weeks leading up to the election, the Kuomintang business leaders abandoned their habitual reserve because (KMT) and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) of the uncertainty of the election’s outcome. A defeat for candidates were running level in the opinion polls. But at Ma could have led to a disruption of the framework under this crucial moment, Taiwanese employers came out in which, over the years, their businesses have developed in resounding support of outgoing president Ma Ying-jeou. mainland China. Tong says these businessmen see “the Their action undoubtedly contributed to his re-election on reshuffling of the cards in the global economic game and the 14 January 2012. The KMT has always had the support of shift of the centre of gravity towards Asia”, because of the the business community, but this was the first time that the growing power of the Chinese economy. Once “the world’s business community came together nearly unanimously to factory”, China is now becoming “the world’s market”. back its candidate. The country is gradually building the capacity to overtake the United States. So, Taiwan’s industrial and financial The vast majority of the Taiwanese economic establishment sectors cannot afford to stay out of the Chinese market. supported Ma Ying-jeou and the 1992 consensus, a central theme of the president’s campaign. This consensus – which Tong notes that the big industrialists are not the only the DPP contends does not exist – refers to a meeting in ones who want peaceful relations between the two sides 1992 in which representatives from both sides of the strait of the strait. The growth in Chinese tourism to Taiwan is are said to have verbally agreed that there is only one China, benefiting small enterprises and businesses such as travel comprised of Taiwan and the mainland, but that each side agents, hotels, restaurants, and small shops in tourist areas. has a different interpretation of the meaning of that one Illustrating Ma’s support from this sector, two days before China. The KMT government believes that the Republic of the election, an advertisement was published in the Liberty China is the one and only China. Times commissioned from the tourism industry committee in favour of Ma Ying-jeou and Wu Den-yih‘s election. The day before the election, in the largest circulation It represented the views of leaders from about 100 newspaper on the island, the Apple Daily, a group of tourism-related associations and business organisations. 27 business leaders put their names to a statement They said that “the vote to elect the President affects the addressed to “all employees of businesses”. The statement fate of 700,000 workers in the tourist industry” and referred indirectly to the global economic crisis and thanked President Ma “for the appropriate choices he made linked the safety of Taiwan to the continuation of peaceful in government that allowed the expansion of the tourist relations with China based on the 1992 consensus. In the �������������������������������������������������� “Business leaders come out in support of Ma”, The China Post, message, titled “Understanding the problems of our times 12 January 2012; “Businesses come out to support the continuation of peace”, Lianhe Wanbao, 13 January 2012. 11 12 April 2012 CHINA ANALYSIS “patience without haste” ( haste” without “patience has who financier the Yen-liang, Yin and king”, “shipping Agreements allowing visa-free travel by Taiwanese citizens Taiwanese by travel visa-free allowing Agreements The Journalist ��������������������������������������������������������������������������� h as r cnitn wt Tn’ cneto ta the that contention Tong’s with consistent are ads The China. Mainland from came whom of 29% 2011, in Taiwan to sector the of prosperity the attributed statement The In 2006, Chang tried to get closer to the KMT. The party The KMT. the to closer get to tried Chang 2006, In supported Chang 2000, in campaign presidential the In of policy Teng-hui’s Lee criticised publicly he 1997, In in employment and increased has tourism in Investment Huang says both these businessmen’s activities depend for depend activities businessmen’s these both says Huang the Yung-fa, Chang examples as uses Qin-ya Huang DPP leader Chen Shui-bian, who had worked for him as a as him for worked had who Shui-bian, Chen leader DPP and Taiwan also It audit. tax a to submit to business the forced and PRC. the in investments Taiwanese down slowing at aimed Ma’s policy of openness, which has generated a huge rise huge a generated has which openness, of policy Ma’s Chang’s criticism cast a serious chill on his relations with relations his on chill serious a cast criticism Chang’s company that would have enabled the group to take part in part take to group the enabled have would that company policies. investment liberalising and links sea and air direct Taiwan’s and futures, their own defending their in interests, interested economic mostly were consensus develop thetouristmarketinTaiwan. u wt bt i dfnig oiis e huh necessary thought he policies defending in both with out cities ofXiamenandFuzhouontheChinesemainland. refused to grant a licence for a joint venture with a Chinese a with venture joint a for licence a grant to refused was in severe financial difficulties, and Chang helped them helped Chang and difficulties, financial severe in was to close first at was Yung-fa Chang situation. this with the Instead, nationalism. pan-Chinese about not was mainland authoritiesandthegovernmentofTaiwan. test runs before the opening of direct links between China between links direct of opening the before runs test the president,andtheywerenevercloseagain. opened been have hotels new 319 grown: has industry the industry. the helped also world the in countries most to n awn asd hn t pns hs vrre Group Evergreen his punish to China caused Taiwan in the both of handling careful through China in interests to attracted been have investors foreign New years. four in visited people million 6 Over island. the to visitors in industry”. success on the Taiwanese government’s approval. The two The approval. government’s Taiwanese the on success himself fromtheChengovernment. rsdns e Tn-u ad hn hiba. u h fell he But Shui-bian. Chen and Teng-hui Lee presidents in Qin-ya Huang growth. economic for prospects ik ws otoe o svrl cain. hs delays These occasions. several on postponed was links rule KMT ended who president the for support His lawyer. rsrtd hn gety ad e usqety distanced subsequently he and greatly, Chang frustrated opening mainland: the with relations good developing for the islandofQuemoy(Kinmen)andMatsuin Taiwan andthecoastal uiese hv tkn ifrn apoce t dealing to approaches different taken have businessmen China”. in distribution large-scale of “king the become economic their defend to trying were leaders business 1992 the and KMT the supported who businessmen InJanuary2001,asatestcase,direct linkswereestablished between 33 . As it turned out, the establishment of direct of establishment the out, turned it As . also says the large employers’ mobilisation employers’ large the says also 戒急用忍 , jieji yongren ), a policy a ),
The businessleaders Within a decade, the RT-Mart chain had become the leader the become had chain RT-Mart the decade, a Within 2000s, Yin’s Ruentex set out to conquer the Chinese market. ������������������������������������������������������������������������ (about €50 million). He used the building for the offices of offices the for building the used He million). €50 (about nuac C. wih a be aqie a e months few a acquired been had which Co., Insurance Huang goes on to talk about Yin Yen-liang, the chairman the Yen-liang, Yin about talk to on goes Huang un Qny sy ta fr i, epn a ot n each in foot a keeping Yin, for that says Qin-ya Huang P peieta cniae si n-e uig h “Yu the using Ing-wen Tsai candidate presidential DPP relations close maintained Yin time, same the at But DPP. and permits to take freight, passengers, and goods across goods and passengers, freight, take to permits and Office of Professional Insurance ( Insurance Professional of Office a majority during both Chen Shui-bian’s terms. In the early to employer Taiwanese major first the was He authorities. Ma of incompetence several times during his first term in term first his during times several incompetence of Ma Chang Yung-faunwillingtooffendChina. hn afi” ( affair” Chang group had bought the biotechnology firm at the centre of centre the at firm biotechnology the bought had group earlier by Ruentex. Huang says this legal action was taken was action legal this says Huang Ruentex. by earlier were trying todefendtheir were trying of the Ruentex group, who gave generous financial support financial generous gave who group, Ruentex the of support Chang’s that says Qin-ya Huang However, office. of head was who Ying-jeou, Ma with relations better of and thegovernmentofTaiwan. chair ofthecompany. The KMT alleged thatshegavethego-aheadfor baoxian ju etand I ery 02 te awns government’s Taiwanese the 2012, early In restrained. will from the Chinese authorities so it can receive licences receive can it so authorities Chinese the from will would have liked. In late 2011, the KMT tried to discredit to tried KMT the 2011, late In liked. have would Jin-ping, Wang especially KMT, the in officials some with the to close businessmen the of one as him marked which makers, whether from the DPP or the KMT or the communist in office. term her after firm the in involved be would she that knowing investment through carefulhandlingof both themainlandauthorities cycle, this until Up him. for unusually campaign, Ma’s to makes This vessels. container and aircraft its in strait the accused Yung-fa Chang so, even But time. the at KMT the throughout the final two weeks of the campaign promoting campaign the of weeks two final the throughout very were affair the on statements his but accusations, the had KMT the where Yuan, Legislative the of chairman the n h lbrlsto o tae cos h sri, Evergreen strait, the across trade of liberalisation the in in retaliation against Yin – even though he spent millions spent he though even – Yin against retaliation in in massretailonthemainland. economic interestsinChina his charitable foundation. That purchase was the beginning policies. Since then, the group has needed to maintain good political camp turned out to be more difficult than he than difficult more be to out turned camp political 2000, in election his after Shui-bian Chen to visit a pay linked its fate to the continued development of more open more of development continued the to fate its linked for Ma’s second run was not surprising. By involving itself involving By surprising. not was run second Ma’s for she became she office, leaving company.After biotechnology Yuthe Chang y uig h KT edures o TD . billion 2.3 TWD for headquarters KMT the buying by �������������������������������������������������������������������� In 2007,whilevice-premier, Tsai approvedgovernment investment in ) launched legal proceedings against the Nanshan 宇昌案 , Yuchang an 勞工保險局 ) 34 i Ynlag had Yen-liang Yin avoid antagonising avoid hn Yn-a in Yung-fa Chang cautious than cautious i daig with dealings his had always tried to tried always had political power. He power. political political decision decision political en uh more much been Yn Yen-liang’s Yin . , laogong “the preservation of peace between the two sides of the strait and maintaining prosperity” in most of Taiwan’s magazines and newspapers.
Two days before the election, Yin even purchased a half-page advertisement on the front page of a national newspaper for a piece he signed himself, “The five reasons to vote for Ma Ying-jeou”. One of his reasons was the ability to travel to 124 countries without a visa. The other four were directly linked to improvements in cross-strait relations. Yin said the establishment of direct air links allowed for economies of time and expenditure. Economic growth, he said, means “everyone earns more”. The fight against crime has led to better protection of wealth. And “harmonious relations between the two sides of the strait” are a guarantee of peace on the island. Huang says that Yin’s statements were aimed not only at avoiding the anger of the Ma government, but were also intended to reassure the Chinese government, who have a part to play in determining Nanshan’s future success. Yin Yen-liang wants the company to expand its activities on the mainland, which it cannot do without the approval of Beijing.
The Taiwanese businessmen’s mobilisation to help re-elect Ma Ying-jeou testifies to the extraordinary dependency on the mainland of whole sectors of the Taiwanese economy. It seems that the future of Taiwan’s economy lies across the strait. But this structural entanglement enables China to exert pressure in the politics of Taiwan. Thus the Taiwanese business community’s publicity exercises can be seen as a form of tribute to the Chinese government. Even so, Taiwanese business leaders are not speaking out for national unification. Instead, their support for rapprochement with China arises from a dissociation of the logic of capitalism from that of nationalism. As Huang Qin-ya says, convictions do not make a successful entrepreneur – to make the best of the current situation, Taiwan’s businessmen are doing whatever it takes to keep good relations with political power.
13 14 April 2012 CHINA ANALYSIS About theauthors: Jean-Pierre Cabestan is a Professor and Jean-Pierre CabestanisaProfessorand University. He is alsa associate researcher University. Heisalsaassociateresearcher Tanguy Le Pesant is an assistant Professor at the Tanguy Le Pesant is an assistant Professor atthe Hubert Kilian is a journalist based in Taiwan Hubert Kilian is a journalist based in Taiwan François Godementisthedirectorforstrategy Peace ResearchInstitute(SIPRI).hecanbereached Head oftheDepartmentGovernmentand International Studies at Hong Kong Baptist International StudiesatHongKongBaptist com. at Asia Centre and a senior research fellow at at AsiaCentreandaseniorresearchfellow at [email protected]. Asia Centreprogramscoverthepreventionofconflictsand Asia-Pacific; promotescooperationandsecondtrackdialogue Asia Centre,foundedinAugust2005,conductsresearchand Centre, and senior researcher at the Stockholm Centre, andseniorresearcherattheStockholm National Central University in Chongli, Taiwan ; National Central University inChongli, Taiwan ; Mathieu Duchâtel is an associate researcher at Asia since 2005,hecanbereachedathub.kilian@gmail. contributions andviewpointsfromresearchassociatesa governance, globalisationandnationalstrategies,energy, as wellonthepoliticalandeconomictransformationsin organizes debate on international relations and strategic issues, © ECFR/AsiaCentre2012 ABOUT ASIACENTRE commercial use. Any other use requires prior written permission. written prior requires use other Any use. commercial n oeg Rltos n Ai Cnr. o my o copy, not may You Centre. Asia and Relations Foreign on [email protected]. This paper represents not the collective views of ECFR or Asia Centre, the European Council on Foreign Relations, the EuropeanCouncilonForeignRelations, fellow at Asia Centre, he can be reached at fellow atAsiaCentre,hecanbereached where he has been contributing to different media where hehasbeencontributingtodifferentmedia he [email protected]. he [email protected]. erdc, euls o cruae n n wy h content the way any in circulate or republish reproduce, Contact: [email protected],[email protected] Council European the by held is publication this of Copyright www.centreasia.eu with partners in Asia, Europe and the world; publishes timely proliferation andsustainabledevelopment.Theyalsodraw network ofresearchinstitutions. regional integration, the challenges of democracy and reports fromourresearchteam. rm hs ulcto ecp fr or w proa ad non- and personal own your for except publication this from but onlytheviewofitsauthors. information andanalysisfromtheregion,executivebriefs
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