2013
Tolland Village Retail Market Study
Analysis and strategic recommendations for targeted economic development in the Tolland Village area, prepared for the Town of Tolland by the Connecticut Economic Resource Center Inc.
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Connecticut Economic Resource Center Inc.
CERC is a nonprofit corporation and public-private partnership that provides economic development services consistent with state strategies, leveraging Connecticut’s unique advantages as a premier business location.
The Connecticut Economic Resource Center Inc. 805 Brook Street, Building 4. Rocky Hill, CT 06067 (860) 571 7136 www.CERC.com
Primary Research Contacts
Alissa K. DeJonge Vice President of Research Connecticut Economic Resource Center (860) 571-6206
Matthew B. Ross Research Associate Connecticut Economic Resource Center (860) 258-1687 [email protected]
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The Town of Tolland commissioned the Connecticut Economic Resource Center, Inc. to conduct a retail market study to assess existing and emerging retail opportunities. The primary goal of this analysis is to quantify the potential impact of the development of Storrs Center and the expansion of the University of Connecticut on the demand for retail and support services in the Tolland Village area. The retail market study consists of a qualitative assessment of the impact from developments at and around the University of Connecticut as well as a comprehensive demographic, industry, workforce, and retail marketplace analysis. The goal of the study is to gauge demographic and market characteristics to determine the types of establishments that will experience an increased demand so that the Town of Tolland can better target its recruitment efforts.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary...... 4 Introduction and Methodology ...... 7 Demographic Composition Analysis ...... 8 Figure 1: Age Demographics ...... 9 Figure 2: Gender, Racial, and Ethnicity Demographics ...... 10 Figure 3: Educational Attainment ...... 10 Industry Composition Analysis ...... 11 Figure 4: Industry Composition ...... 11 Figure 5: Historic Industry Performance ...... 12 Figure 6: Future Industry Performance ...... 12 Figure 7: Average Annual Industry Earnings ...... 13 Workforce Composition Analysis ...... 13 Figure 8: Workforce Composition ...... 14 Figure 9: Historic Workforce Performance ...... 14 Figure 10: Future Workforce Performance ...... 15 Figure 11: Median Hourly Workforce Earnings ...... 15 Retail Marketplace Analysis ...... 16 Figure 12: Income Profile ...... 16 Figure 13: Retail Employment in the Tolland Commuter Shed ...... 17 Figure 14: Retail Employment in Tolland ...... 18 Figure 15: Computer Patterns in Tolland ...... 19 Figure 16: Industries with a Consumption Gap or Low Retail Surplus ...... 20 Figure 17: Industries with a High Retail Surplus ...... 21 Impact from the University of Connecticut ...... 22 Conclusions and Recommendations ...... 24
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Executive Summary
A retail market study consists of a comprehensive assessment of the current demographic and market characteristics of a region. The study is useful in determining the types of establishments that are currently underrepresented in a region or are projected to experience an increase in demand. This analysis consists of four distinct components that detail the current economic climate, consumer base, and retail opportunities in Tolland. A subsequent section outlining the development of Storrs Center and the expansion taking place at the University of Connecticut discusses the implications that these structural changes will have on the local economy in Tolland. Finally, the findings from each of these distinct analyses were synergized and used to create a detailed set of recommended retail sectors.
Findings from the demographic composition analysis include:
The younger portion of the working age population in Tolland from ages 25 to 44 was higher than Tolland County but much lower than across both Connecticut and the United States.
Attracting more individuals from the 25 to 44 year old age range (especially the age 25 to 34 population) to live in Tolland is an excellent way to sustainably grow the local economy as these individuals have a much higher level of discretionary income.
The proportion of the population of Caucasian descent present in Tolland was slightly higher than the 90 percent in Tolland County but significantly higher than the 79 percent in Connecticut and 74 percent across the United States.
A total of 47 percent of the population in Tolland had a bachelor’s degree or higher indicating that the town has been quite successful at capturing an older and highly educated resident population.
Findings from the industry composition analysis include:
The largest industry in Tolland was Government due to the presence of a large state police installation. This industry accounted for 23 percent of Tolland’s employment.
Only two of Tolland’s eight largest industries experienced net job growth over the period of 2008- 2012 – Social & Nursing Assistance and Food Services & Drinking Places. The Social & Nursing Assistance industry created the largest number of net new jobs with a total of 48.
The Publishing and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services industries are expected to produce the most new jobs, 77 and 70, respectively.
The highest average yearly earnings were found in the Merchant Wholesalers (Nondurable Goods) industry with a value over $145,000, which is greater than the average earned within this industry at both the county and state levels.
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Findings from the workforce composition analysis include:
The largest occupation, in terms of employment of Tolland residents, is Elementary & Middle School Teachers, which accounted for nearly 6 percent of total employment. This is a greater concentration of Elementary & Middle School Teachers than at the county and state levels.
The second largest occupation within Tolland, as well as Tolland County, is Nursing, Psychiatric, & Home Health Aides, which accounts for 4 percent.
The only occupation that experienced job growth during this period was Nursing, Psychiatric, & Home Health Aides, which was consistent with the fact that this occupation also saw growth at both the county and state levels.
The largest net and percentage job growth is expected within the second largest occupation for Tolland residents, the Nursing, Psychiatric, & Home Health Aides occupation, which is expected to expand by 43 jobs, or more than 28 percent of current employment.
The highest median hourly earnings are earned by those employed within the General & Operations Managers occupation with a value of $54 per hour. This value is slightly below the median state earnings within this occupation of $59 per hour.
Findings from the marketplace analysis include:
The income per capita in Tolland was higher than the immediate community with $32,667 annually as compared to $31,024 in the 10 minute commuter shed1 but lower than the $40,462 seen within 20 minutes and $41,459 within 30 minutes.
The retail commuter shed showed that there is a distinct cluster of retail establishments towards Hartford in Manchester, Vernon, and Windsor. Tolland had a visible cluster of retail establishments located along Route 195 and as the Hartford Turnpike enters Vernon.
The sector that had the most establishments in the commuter shed was Miscellaneous Retail which included boutique merchandising establishments that ranged from tobacco shops to gaming stores and had 726 businesses in the region. The sector with the largest overall employment in the region was Eating & Drinking establishments with a total of 7586 employees.
The sector that had the most establishments in Tolland was also Miscellaneous Retail with 42 businesses throughout the town. The sector with the largest overall employment in Tolland was also Eating & Drinking establishments with a total of 180 employees.
The busiest sections of roadway in Tolland surround the interchange between Route 195 and I-84. The traffic count indicates that the traffic is a fairly heavy through the Tolland Village area but picks up considerably with as commuters exit I-84 and head towards the University of Connecticut. There does, however, appear to be a considerable amount of traffic that passes through the middle of Tolland on its way to the University of Connecticut from Vernon.
Sectors found to have consumption gap or low retail surplus include Pubs & Taverns, Department Stores, Specialty Grocery, Beer Wine & Liquor, Auto Parts, Book Periodical & Music, Gasoline Stations, and Lawn & Garden.
1 Commuter shed in this context refers to a radius of a specific drive time around the specific jurisdiction.
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Sectors found to have a high retail surplus include Miscellaneous Retailers, Clothing, Restaurants, Automobile Dealers, Sporting Goods & Hobby, Special Food Services, Building Materials & Supplies, and Jewelry & Luxury Goods. Findings from the analysis of the impact from the University of Connecticut include:
The Storrs Center development was primarily constructed with the intent of serving the entire University community. However, the development will be most frequently utilized by the current and expected undergraduate student population. Its close proximity to campus and the composition of the residential space has attracted retailers that plan to target this younger demographic group
The development at Storrs Center will likely have an impact on the consumption patterns of those working at the University of Connecticut. However, the target demographic of these retailers is considerably lower than that living in Tolland and the stores that have located in Tolland are not durable goods retailers and, barring the restaurants, not destination retail locations. As a result, the majority of retail in Tolland will be unaffected by these developments.
The Next Generation Connecticut expansion will increase the number of workers at the University seeking a community like Tolland to locate their families. Retail development that supports this demographic group will be the most successful strategy to bolster the development of the Tolland Village area and enhance the livability of the community.
Recommended retail sectors include:
A retail sector with a retail gap or low level of surplus is one that residents are currently leaving the community to make purchases. There were a total of eight retail sectors identified in Tolland that met these criteria. After considering the appeal to the target population, the best positioned retailers to enhance the livability of Tolland include Pubs & Taverns, Specialty Grocery, Book Periodical & Music, and Lawn & Garden establishments.
A retail sector with a high retail surplus is one that residents from outside of the community travel to the location to make purchases. Although these sectors are already well represented in the community, complimentary development can help to further enhance Tolland as a destination for these types of retail and bolster the town’s competitive advantage. There were a total of eight retail sectors identified in Tolland that met these criteria. After considering the appeal to the target population, the best positioned retailers to enhance the livability of Tolland include Clothing, Restaurants, Specialty Food Services, Jewelry & Luxury Goods, and Sporting Goods & Hobby establishments.
The Tolland Village area, using a strategic economic development strategy, can enhance the livability of the community. However, strategically attracting the best retail establishments that appeal to the current and anticipated demographics of the community is critical for the development to be successful. Enhancing the livability of Tolland and differentiating it from the neighboring undergraduate community in Mansfield is necessary to attract the faculty and staff that will result from the expansion at the University of Connecticut. Continuing to attract a well educated and affluent population to Tolland will help ensure continued economic prosperity within the community.
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Introduction and Methodology
A retail market study consists of a comprehensive assessment of the current demographic and market characteristics of a region. The study is useful in determining the types of establishments that a currently underrepresented in a region or are projected to experience an increase in demand. This analysis consists of four distinct components that detail the current economic climate, consumer base, and retail opportunities in Tolland. A subsequent section outlining the development of Storrs Center and the expansion taking place at the University of Connecticut will discuss the implications that these structural changes will have on the local economy in Tolland. Finally, the findings from each of these distinct analyses will be synergized and used to create a detailed set of recommended retail sectors for the Tolland Village area.
The first section contained in the report is an analysis of the demographic composition of Tolland and the surrounding region. This portion of the analysis was used to ascertain the current consumer population of Tolland relative to neighboring jurisdictions. The demographic indicators examined in this section included the distribution of age, gender, race, ethnicity, and educational attainment. The analysis of the demographic composition of Tolland provides a foundation for understanding the current resident population and retail opportunities as well as anticipating the potential impacts from regional development.
The second section contained in the report is an analysis of the industry composition of Tolland and the surrounding region. This portion of the analysis was used to ascertain the relative size and performance of Tolland’s largest industries relative to neighboring jurisdictions. The economic indicators examined in this section pertain to the largest eight industries in Tolland and include overall employment, growth from 2008-12, projected growth from 2012-16, and annual average earnings. The analysis of the industrial composition of Tolland provides a foundation for understanding the economic opportunities and largest employers in the region.
The third section contained in the report is an analysis of the composition of the workforce in Tolland and the surrounding region. This portion of the analysis was used to ascertain the types of workers living in Tolland’s relative to neighboring jurisdictions. The economic indicators examined in this section pertain to the largest eight occupations for individuals living in Tolland and include overall employment, growth from 2008-12, projected growth from 2012-16, and median hourly earnings. The analysis of Tolland’s workforce provides a foundation for understanding the occupations of individuals currently living in Tolland and predicts the types of workers that might choose to live there in the future.
The fourth section contained in the report is a retail marketplace analysis of Tolland and the surrounding region. This portion of the analysis was used to determine the best possible opportunities available for retail development in Tolland given the current
Page | 8 Tolland Village Retail Market Study structure of the economy. The economic indicators examined in this section include discretionary income, current retail location, traffic counts, retail sectors shown to have a consumption surplus, and retail sectors show to have a consumption gap in the region. The purpose of this section is to identify the best potential retail opportunities in the region from raw sales data. It should be noted, however, that the opportunities identified in this section do not consider the possible impact of the development of Storrs Center and the University of Connecticut expansion.
The fifth and final section presents an analysis of the impact from the Storrs Center development and the expansion of the University of Connecticut. The purpose of this section was to assess the potential impact on retail opportunities in the Town of Tolland. These two large scale initiatives will have a significant impact on the surrounding community including Tolland. These initiatives will have structural impacts on the demographic, industry, workforce, and retail market composition of Tolland. In addition to a brief overview of each project, this section analyzes the potential impacts on the aforementioned indicators.
The findings from these sections are presented along with a list of recommended retail sectors at the end of the report. These recommendations represent the culmination of this comprehensive analysis. They have been constructed based on the current market data for Tolland and the surrounding communities as well as an assessment of the potential impact of the Storrs Center development and University of Connecticut expansion. The recommended list of retail sectors represents an opportunity for the Town of Tolland to strategically develop the village area and enhance the livability of the surrounding community.
Demographic Composition Analysis
The demographic composition analysis was conducted so as to best determine the consumer population of Tolland. Four comparison jurisdictions were selected in an effort to gauge the composition of Tolland relative to other large geographic regions. The comparison regions included Tolland County, Connecticut, and the United States. The demographic indicators examined in this section included the distribution of age, gender, race, ethnicity, and educational attainment. These indicators are a critical component when developing a comprehensive understanding of the current resident population and retail opportunities as well as anticipating the potential impact of the development of Storrs Center and the University of Connecticut expansion.
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Figure 1: Age Demographics Source: American Community Survey 5-year Sample. U.S. Census Bureau. 2007-11.
30%
20%
10% Percent Population Percent 0% Age 0 to 19 Age 20 to 24 Age 25 to 44 Age 45 to 64 Age 64+
United States Connecticut Tolland County Tolland
Figure 1 shows the age distribution of the population in the United States, Connecticut, Tolland County, and the Town of Tolland. Comparing the age distribution in Tolland to other regions is critical to understanding the consumer base of the retail area. The Town of Tolland had a noticeably different age distribution to the comparative regions in several distinct ways. The age distribution of Tolland County and the Town of Tolland compared to Connecticut and the United States represents, in large part, the impact that the University of Connecticut has on the surrounding community.
The proportion of the population under 19 years old was significantly higher in the Town of Tolland with 29 percent of the population as compared to 26 percent in Tolland County, 26 percent in Connecticut, and 27 percent in the United States. The proportion of the population from 45 to 64 years of age was significantly higher in Tolland constituting 30 percent of the total residents as compared to 28 percent in Tolland County, 28 percent in Connecticut, and 26 percent in the United States. Tolland had a significantly lower portion of the population from the age of 20 to 24 with only four percent of the total residents from this age range as compared to 11 percent in Tolland County, six percent in Connecticut, and seven percent in the United States.
The distribution of age demographics indicate that Tolland, although less likely to attract younger undergraduate students, has been successful at attracting graduate students and families with school age children. The younger portion of the working age population from ages 25 to 44, however, was higher than the overall county but much lower than across both Connecticut and the United States. Attracting more individuals from this age range (especially the age 25 to 34 population) to live in Tolland is an excellent way to sustainably grow the local economy as these individuals have a much higher level of discretionary income.
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Figure 2: Gender, Racial, and Ethnicity Demographics Source: American Community Survey 5-year Sample. U.S. Census Bureau. 2007-11.
100% 80% 60% 40%
20% Percent Population Percent 0% Male Female White African American Asian Hispanic or Latino
United States Connecticut Tolland County Tolland
Figure 2 shows the distribution of gender, racial, and ethnicity demographics in Tolland and the comparison regions. Comparing the distribution of these demographic indicators in Tolland to other comparison regions is critical to ascertaining an understanding about the composition of the town. The Town of Tolland had a similar gender distribution to Tolland County which was more balanced than Connecticut and the United States where there was a higher proportion of female residents. The Town of Tolland had a significantly more racially homogenous population than the comparison regions with 94 percent Caucasian (white) residents. The proportion of the population of Caucasian descent was slightly higher than the 90 percent in Tolland County but significantly higher than the 79 percent in Connecticut and 74 percent across the United States.
Figure 3: Educational Attainment
Source: American Community Survey 5-year Sample. U.S. Census Bureau. 2007-11.
30%
20%
10% Percent Population Percent 0% Less than High High School Some College Associate's Degree Bachelor's Degree Graduate Degree School
United States Connecticut Tolland County Tolland
Figure 3 shows the distribution of educational attainment in Tolland and the comparison regions. Educational attainment provides insight into the consumption and workforce implications of the relative skill level of the population. The Town of Tolland had a significantly more educated population than any of the comparison regions. Twenty-six percent of the Town of Tolland’s population had a Bachelor’s Degree as compared to only 20 percent in Tolland County, 20 percent in Connecticut, and 18 percent in the United States. Similarly, a total of 21 percent of Tolland’s population had a Graduate Degree as
Page | 11 Tolland Village Retail Market Study compared to 17 percent in Tolland County, 16 percent in Connecticut, and 11 percent in the United States. The educational attainment statistics again indicate that Tolland has been quite successful at capturing an older and highly educated resident population.
Industry Composition Analysis
The industry composition analysis was conducted so as to determine the major employers in Tolland. Three comparison jurisdictions were selected in an effort to gauge the composition of Tolland’s economy relative to other large geographic regions. The comparison regions included Tolland County and Connecticut. The economic indicators examined in this section pertain to the largest eight industries in Tolland and include overall employment, growth from 2008-12, projected growth from 2012-16, and annual average earnings. These indicators are critical to ascertaining the current economic opportunities and industrial composition of both the region and the Town of Tolland.
Figure 4: Industry Composition Source: CERC Calculation of Economic Modeling Specialists International. 2013.
30%
20%
10%
0% Percent Employment Percent Machinery Merchant Food and Publishing Professional Social and Food Services Government Manufacturing Wholesalers Beverage Industries Services Nursing Stores Assistance Tolland Tolland County Connecticut
Figure 4 shows employment in the eight largest industries within Tolland as a percentage of total employment for 2012. The eight largest industries account for more than 65 percent of total employment of firms located in Tolland. This is an indicator of not only the industries where Tolland exhibits strength, but also industries which present potential opportunities for growth. The largest industry, in terms of percentage of workers employed, is Government accounting for 23 percent of Tolland’s employment. This industry is less concentrated within Tolland than at the county level, where Government employment accounts for 32 percent of total employment. Aside from the government, the Social & Nursing Assistance industry employs the next largest percentage of Tolland workers with a value of 10 percent, which is a much larger concentration than is found at the country or state levels.
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Figure 5: Historic Industry Performance Source: CERC Calculation of Economic Modeling Specialists International. 2013.
Government Food Services Social and Nursing Assistance Professional Services Publishing Industries Food and Beverage Stores Merchant Wholesalers Machinery Manufacturing -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% Employment Growth
Connecticut Tolland County Tolland
Figure 5 displays employment growth for the eight largest industries in Tolland between 2008 and 2012. Net employment growth measures the number of jobs that have been created or destroyed by an industry over the past five years. Only two of Tolland’s eight largest industries experienced net job growth over the period of 2008-2012 – Social & Nursing Assistance and Food Services & Drinking Places. Of these, the Social & Nursing Assistance industry created the largest number of net new jobs, 48. This is consistent with the job growth exhibited by the Social & Nursing Assistance industry at both the county and state level. On the other hand, Government, determined to be the largest employer within Tolland, actually experienced a net decrease of 73 jobs over the period 2008-2012. The largest net change in employment was the decrease of 223 jobs in the Machinery Manufacturing sector, which translates to nearly a 48 percent decrease in employment in that industry.
Figure 6: Future Industry Performance Source: CERC Calculation of Economic Modeling Specialists International. 2013.
Government Food Services Social and Nursing Assistance Professional Services Publishing Industries Food and Beverage Stores Merchant Wholesalers Machinery Manufacturing -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Employment Growth Connecticut Tolland County Tolland
Figure 6 presents forecasted employment growth by industry from 2012 through 2016. Unlike the previous five years, seven of the top eight industries in Tolland are expected to experience net job growth over the next five years. Of these, the Publishing and
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Professional, Scientific & Technical Services industries are expected to produce the most new jobs, 77 and 70, respectively. The Publishing industry including newspaper and periodical editorial and printing services is becoming more competitive within Tolland and Tolland County, despite a projected decrease in such jobs at the state level. Government workers employed at the federal, state, and local level is expected to experience a modest increase in employment of 3 percent at the town level, that growth is projected to be even larger at the county level, or approximately 5 percent. The lone industry forecasted to lose jobs is Machinery Manufacturing, which in accordance with a statewide decline in manufacturing jobs, is projected to continue along a path similar to that exhibited the previous five years and lose an additional 96 jobs.
Figure 7: Average Annual Industry Earnings Source: CERC Calculation of Economic Modeling Specialists International. 2013.
$120,000
$80,000
$40,000 Earnings
$0 Machinery Merchant Food and Publishing Professional Social and Food Services Government Manufacturing Wholesalers Beverage Industries Services Nursing Stores Assistance
Tolland Tolland County Connecticut
Figure 7 shows the average yearly earnings by industry in 2012 for the eight largest industries in Tolland. The highest average yearly earnings are earned by those employed within the Merchant Wholesalers (Nondurable Goods) industry with a value over $145,000, which is greater than the average earned within this industry at both the county and state levels. The second highest average yearly earnings belong to workers employed by the Professional, Scientific & Technical Services industry, who earn, on average, more than $94,000 per year, which is nearly $30,000 higher than average earnings in the same industry at the county level. Those employed by Tolland’s largest employer, government, earn slightly above $65,000 annually.
Workforce Composition Analysis
The workforce composition analysis was conducted so as to best ascertain the types of workers living in Tolland. Again, three comparison jurisdictions were selected in an effort to gauge the composition of Tolland’s workforce relative to other large geographic regions. The comparison regions included Tolland County and Connecticut. The economic indicators examined in this section pertain to the largest eight occupations for individuals
Page | 14 Tolland Village Retail Market Study living in Tolland and include overall employment, growth from 2008-12, projected growth from 2012-16, and median hourly earnings. These indicators are critical to understanding the composition of the workforce in Tolland and assess the types of workers living in the region and the Town of Tolland.
Figure 8: Workforce Composition Source: CERC Calculation of Economic Modeling Specialists International. 2013.
6%
4%
2%
Percent Employment Percent 0% Operations Secondary School Elementary Nursing and Cashiers Sales Administrative Sales and Truck Managers Teachers School Teachers Health Aides Representatives Assistants Drivers Wholesale Tolland Tolland County Connecticut
Figure 8 shows employment in the eight largest occupations of Tolland residents as a percentage of total employment for 2012. These eight occupations account for approximately 24 percent of total employment of the town’s residents. The largest occupation, in terms of employment of Tolland residents, is Elementary & Middle School Teachers, which accounts for nearly 6 percent of total employment. This is a greater concentration of Elementary & Middle School Teachers than is found at both the county and state levels. The second largest occupation within Tolland, as well as Tolland County is Nursing, Psychiatric, & Home Health Aides, which accounts for 4 percent and 3 percent of total employment at the town and county levels, respectively.
Figure 9: Historic Workforce Performance Source: CERC Calculation of Economic Modeling Specialists International. 2013.
Sales and Truck Drivers Administrative Assistants Sales Representatives Wholesale Cashiers Nursing and Health Aides Elementary School Teachers Secondary School Teachers Operations Managers -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Employment Growth Connecticut Tolland County Tolland
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Figure 9 displays employment growth for the eight largest occupations of Tolland residents from 2008 to 2012. Net employment growth measures the number of jobs that have been created or destroyed within an occupation over the past five years. The only occupation that experienced job growth during this period was Nursing, Psychiatric, & Home Health Aides, which is consistent with the fact that this occupation also saw growth at both the county and state levels. The number of jobs within the largest occupation employing Tolland residents, Elementary & Middle School Teachers, remained constant over the past five years. The remaining six largest occupations all experienced job loss at the town, county and state levels. The largest percentage loss of jobs occurred among General & Operations Managers, where nearly 16 percent of jobs disappeared.
Figure 10: Future Workforce Performance Source: CERC Calculation of Economic Modeling Specialists International. 2013.
Sales and Truck Drivers Administrative Assistants Sales Representatives Wholesale Cashiers Nursing and Health Aides Elementary School Teachers Secondary School Teachers Operations Managers -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Employment Growth Connecticut Tolland County Tolland
Figure 10 presents forecasted employment growth by occupation from 2012 through 2016. Unlike the previous five years, all of the top eight occupations in Tolland are expected to experience net job growth over the next five years. The largest net and percentage job growth is expected within the second largest occupation for Tolland residents, the Nursing, Psychiatric, & Home Health Aides occupation, which is expected to expand by 43 jobs, or more than 28 percent of current employment. The outlook is generally favorable, with all occupations expected to expand over the next five years at the town, county, and state levels with the exception of slight expected losses in the General & Operations Managers & Secondary School Teachers occupations at the state level.
Figure 11: Median Hourly Workforce Earnings Source: CERC Calculation of Economic Modeling Specialists International. 2013.
$60
$40
$20 Earnings $0 Operations Secondary Elementary Nursing and Cashiers Sales Administrative Sales and Truck Managers School School Health Aides Representatives Assistants Drivers Teachers Teachers Tolland Connecticut Wholesale
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Figure 11 shows the median hourly earnings within Tolland County by occupation in 2012 for the eight largest occupations of Tolland residents. The highest median hourly earnings are earned by those employed within the General & Operations Managers occupation with a value of $54 per hour. This value is slightly below the median state earnings within this occupation of $59. The occupations with the next highest median hourly earnings are Secondary School Teachers & Sales Representatives, Wholesale & Manufacturing with approximate values of $30 per hour, which are consistent at both the county and state levels.
Retail Marketplace Analysis
The retail marketplace analysis was conducted to determine the best possible opportunities available to retail development in Tolland. In many of the indicators discussed, four comparison jurisdictions were selected so that those communities within a relatively short commute from Tolland were considered when gauging potential retail opportunities. In addition to the Town of Tolland, 10 minute, 20 minute, and 30 minute commuter radii were created for comparison purposes. The retail marketplace analysis examined several key indicators including the discretionary income, current retail location, traffic counts, retail sectors shown to have a consumption surplus in the region, and retail sectors show to have a consumption gap. These indicators help to identify the best potential retail opportunities in the region from raw sales data. It should be noted, however, that the opportunities identified in this section do not consider the possible impact of the development of Storrs Center and the University of Connecticut expansion.
Figure 12: Income Profile Source: CERC Calculation of Retail Market Place Profile. ESRI and Dun & Bradstreet. 2013.
$120,000
$80,000
Income $40,000
$0 Income Per Capita Disposable Income Per Capita Income Per Household Disposable Income Per Household
Tolland 10 Minute 20 Minute 30 Minute
Figure 12 shows the income profile of individuals and households in the Town of Tolland and the relative retail commuter shed surrounding the community. The income per capita in Tolland was higher than the immediate community with $32,667 annually as compared to $31,024 in the 10 minute commuter shed but lower than the $40,462 seen within 20
Page | 17 Tolland Village Retail Market Study minutes and $41,459 within 30 minutes. Similarly, the income per household in Tolland was higher than the immediate community with $83,690 annually as compared to $80,893 in the 10 minute commuter shed but lower than the $101,727 seen within 20 minutes and $117,791 within 30 minutes. The estimated disposable income in Tolland and the surrounding communities reflects a similar differential to that seen in the overall income statistics.
Figure 13: Retail Employment in the Tolland Commuter Shed Source: CERC Calculation of Dun & Bradstreet. 2013.
Figure 13 shows the location, employment size, and industry for select retail sectors with employment greater than a single person that were located within a 12 mile commuter shed of Tolland. The retail map shows a distinct of cluster of retail establishments towards Hartford in Manchester, Vernon, and Windsor. Tolland, however, does have a visible cluster of retail establishments located along Route 195 and as the Hartford Turnpike enters Vernon. The sector that had the most establishments was Miscellaneous Retail which included boutique merchandising establishments that ranged from tobacco shops to gaming stores and had 726 businesses in the region. The sector with the largest overall
Page | 18 Tolland Village Retail Market Study employment in the region was Eating & Drinking establishments with a total of 7586 employees.
Figure 14: Retail Employment in Tolland Source: CERC Calculation of Dun & Bradstreet. 2013.
Figure 14 shows the location, employment size, and industry for select retail sectors with employment greater than a single person that were located in Tolland. The retail map shows a distinct of cluster of retail establishments located along Route 195 and as the Hartford Turnpike enters Vernon. The sector that had the most establishments in Tolland was also Miscellaneous Retail with 42 businesses throughout the town. The sector with the largest overall employment in Tolland was also Eating & Drinking establishments with a total of 180 employees. economic development that conforms to the current distribution of retail will help to bolster the downtown area of Tolland. In addition, maintaining the existing pattern of business dispersion will not disrupt the mix of residential and commercial property that has made Tolland an attractive and livability community.
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Figure 15: Computer Patterns in Tolland Source: CERC Calculation of Commuter Patterns. Connecticut Department of Transportation. 2013.
Section Beginning Section Ending Length ADT Route 74 VERNON - TOLLAND TL SAND HILL RD 0.49 3400 SAND HILL RD BGN OVLP RTE 30 0.59 2700 BGN OVLP RTE 30 END OVLP RTE 30 0.14 OVLP END OVLP RTE 30 BURBANK RD 1.4 5300 BURBANK RD RTE 195(MERROW RD) 0.72 6500 RTE 195(MERROW RD) OLD POST RD 0.29 1700 OLD POST RD OLD CATHOLE RD 0.63 2800 OLD CATHOLE RD NORTH RIVER RD 2.28 2000 NORTH RIVER RD ACC TO WB I-84(269) 0.07 3700 ACC TO WB I-84(269) ACC TO EB I-84(272) 0.21 6300 ACC TO EB I-84(272) TOLLAND - WILLINGTON TL 0.37 7600 Route 30
VERNON - TOLLAND TL KINGSBURY AVE 0.34 13500 KINGSBURY AVE OLD POST RD 0.14 11600 OLD POST RD S JCT RTE 74(NB)(TOLLAND STAGE RD) 0.7 9100 S JCT RTE 74(NB)(TOLLAND STAGE RD) N JCT RTE 74(TOLLAND STAGE RD) 0.14 11600 N JCT RTE 74(TOLLAND STAGE RD) EATON RD 1.57 7300 EATON RD TOLLAND - ELLINGTON TL 1.94 5900 Route 31
VERNON-TOLLAND TL REED RD 0.65 8100 REED RD GEHRING RD 0.78 6800 GEHRING RD TOLLAND-COVENTRY TL 0.74 4600 Route 195
COVENTRY - TOLLAND TL BAXTER ST 1.67 9500 BAXTER ST GOOSE LA 0.93 11500 GOOSE LA ACC TO I-84 EB(268) 0.42 17600 ACC TO I-84 EB(268) ACC TO I-84 WB(265) 0.19 14200 ACC TO I-84 WB(265) CIDER MILL CONNECTOR 0.27 12500 CIDER MILL CONNECTOR OLD POST RD 0.18 10300 OLD POST RD RTE 74(TOLLAND STAGE RD) 0.16 8400
Figure 15 shows the average daily traffic count and road lengths for various sections of state maintained roadway in Tolland. The busiest sections of roadway in Tolland surround the interchange between Route 195 and I-84. The traffic count indicates that the traffic is a fairly heavy through the Tolland Village area but picks up considerably with as commuters exit I-84 and head towards the University of Connecticut. There does, however, appear to
Page | 20 Tolland Village Retail Market Study be a considerable amount of traffic that passes through the middle of Tolland on its way to the University of Connecticut from Vernon. Evidence of this can be seen when traffic counts increase as 195 intersects Route 74.
Another particularly busy section of roadway is located where Route 30 and 74 enter Vernon. Although these entrant points into Tolland were already observed to have an elevated level of development, increased consumption in these areas along with increased signage can help facilitate commuter flows to the Tolland Village area. Another less developed but comparably busy area of Tolland is located to the Northwest where Route 74 intersects I-84. At this particular juncture most of the traffic heads toward Willington and increased signage might help attract commuters towards the Tolland Village area.
Figure 16: Industries with a Consumption Gap or Low Retail Surplus Source: CERC Calculation of Retail Market Place Profile. ESRI and Dun & Bradstreet. 2013.
Lawn & Garden
Book, Periodical & Music
Beer, Wine & Liquor
Department Stores
Gasoline Stations
Auto Parts
Specialty Grocery
Pubs & Taverns
0 20 40 60 80 100 Weighted Consumption Index
Weighted Index 30 Minute 20 Minute 10 Minute Tolland
Figure 16 shows those industries shown to have a consumption gap or extremely low retail surplus across the four comparison regions and a weighted composite index.2 The weighted composite index was created from the individual geographic indexes but weighted to account for the relative dispersion of sales across the geographies. Those retail sectors identified as having a consumption gap or low retail surplus represent opportunities where Tolland can capture sales being lost to neighboring jurisdictions. Again, these opportunities reflect the current consumer spending patterns in Tolland and do not directly account for the impact of Storrs Center or the expansion of the University of
2 Op. cit. 1
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Connecticut. As previously mentioned, the implications of these future developments and a final set of target industries is identified in subsequent sections.
Sectors found to have a high retail surplus include:
Pubs & Taverns (NAICS 7224) Department Stores (NAICS 4521) Specialty Grocery (NAICS 4452) Beer, Wine, & Liquor (NAICS 4453) Auto Parts (NAICS 4413) Book, Periodical, & Music (NAICS 4512) Gasoline Stations (NAICS 4471) Lawn & Garden (NAICS 4442)
Figure 17: Industries with a High Retail Surplus Source: CERC Calculation of Retail Market Place Profile. ESRI and Dun & Bradstreet. 2013.
Jewelry & Luxury Goods
Special Food Services
Automobile Dealers
Clothing
Bldg Material & Supplies
Sporting Goods & Hobby
Restaurants
Miscellaneous Retailers
0 20 40 60 80 100 Weighted Consumption Index Weighted Index 30 Minute 20 Minute 10 Minute Tolland
Figure 17 shows those industries shown to have a high retail surplus across the four comparison regions and a weighted composite index.3 The weighted composite index was created from the individual geographic indexes but weighted to account for the relative dispersion of sales across the geographies. Those retail sectors identified as having a high surplus represent retail areas where Tolland has a current strength compared to neighboring jurisdictions and where complementarities can be further developed. These opportunities reflect the current consumer spending patterns in Tolland and do not directly account for the impact of Storrs Center or the expansion of the University of
3 The indexes were created by first dividing the consumption gap or surplus for the given jurisdiction by the average sales per establishment in the 30 minute commuter shed and then raising all values by the lowest consumption gap before being transformed to a 100 point scale. The weighted index is a composite of the four geographic indexes where each value was first divided by the standard deviation of each respective geography and then averaged across the geographies before being transformed to a 100 point scale.
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Connecticut. The implications of these future developments and a final set of target industries is identified in subsequent sections.
Sectors found to have a high retail surplus include:
Miscellaneous Retailers (NAICS 4539) Clothing (NAICS 4481) Restaurants (NAICS 7221) Automobile Dealers (NAICS 4411) Sporting Goods & Hobby (NAICS 4511) Special Food Services (NAICS 7223) Building Materials & Supplies (NAICS 4441) Jewelry & Luxury Goods (NAICS 4483)
Impact from the University of Connecticut
An analysis of the impact from the Storrs Center development and the expansion of the University of Connecticut was conducted in an effort to assess the potential impact on retail opportunities in the Town of Tolland. These two large scale initiatives are, in part, the result of strategic state planning initiatives and will have a significant impact on the surrounding community including Tolland. These initiatives will have structural impacts on the demographic, industry, workforce, and retail market composition of Tolland. In addition to a brief overview of each project, this section will provide a summary of the potential impacts on the aforementioned indicators.
The Mansfield Downtown Partnership recently completed the first phase of the Storrs Center project. The project’s master developer is New York based Leyland Alliance. The $220 million project bolsters 320 apartments and approximately 24 current signed commercial retailers. The apartments range in price from $1,000 a month for a studio to $2,650 for a three-bedroom unit and have been primarily marketed towards students and young professionals. The retail space has been marketed similarly containing restaurants, specialty food stores, and boutique shops. The Town of Mansfield is also currently considering a proposal to develop a $10 million Fairfield Inn and Suites in Storrs Center.
The Connecticut General Assembly approved a $1.5 billion plan to expand Next Generation Connecticut in June 2013. Next Generation Connecticut is Governor Malloy’s proposal to expand educational opportunities, research, and innovation in the science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) disciplines at UConn over the next decade. Although Next Generation Connecticut expanded capital development, the bill also expanded the operating budget primarily for program support and faculty hiring initiatives in STEM fields from UConn 2000 and 21st Century UConn. Next Generation Connecticut plans to increase student enrollments by nearly 6,500 students through 2024. The plan has pledged to accommodate the increase in enrollment with an additional 259 faculty in addition to the planned increase of 290 faculty. Nearly 70 percent of the proposed new student
Page | 23 Tolland Village Retail Market Study population is expected to be Connecticut residents and the majority is anticipated to enroll at the state’s flagship university at Storrs.
The Storrs Center development was primarily constructed with the intent of serving the entire University community. However, the development will be most frequently utilized by the current and expected undergraduate student population. Its close proximity to campus and the composition of the residential space has attracted retailers that plan to target this younger demographic group. Some portion of the residential units will also likely accommodate young faculty and graduate students. In addition, faculty and graduate students are also likely to increase their off-campus consumption in the Storrs area regardless of their town of residence as a result of the increased retail options.
The Town of Tolland has a larger proportion of the population from the ages of 25 to 65 with school aged children than Tolland County. The population is also much more highly educated than other towns in the region and has a much higher per capita and household income. These statistics indicate that Tolland has been successful attracting a large proportion of the faculty and staff that work at the University of Connecticut as well as commuters to the capitol region. The workforce analysis, however, indicates that these workers are predominately in staff positions at the University rather than academic positions. The approval of 88 multifamily units in the proposed Technology Campus Zone, however, could serve as an attractive housing option for graduate students, workers from the University of Connecticut Technology Park, and undergraduate students who are interested in living slightly further from the University community.
The town’s elevated educational attainment and disproportionate share of the prime working wage population is an excellent indicator that there is a high level of discretionary income available for increased consumption in Tolland. The development at Storrs Center will likely have an impact on the consumption patterns of those working at the University of Connecticut. However, this impact is unlikely to have a dramatic effect on the retail opportunities in Tolland for several key reasons. As previously mentioned, the target demographic of these retailers is considerably a lower age than that living in Tolland. In addition, the stores that have located in Tolland are not durable goods retailers and, barring the restaurants, not destination retail locations. The conclusion is that residents of Tolland and those living in the community are unlikely to spend a substantially larger portion of their incomes in Mansfield as a result of Storrs Center.
The town’s demographic composition indicates that a large proportion of the student population from the University of Connecticut has not chosen to move off campus to Tolland. However, the shortage of affordable housing units available in Mansfield will only be exacerbated by the Next Generation Connecticut state investments even if housing development near the University were to substantially increase. Although the proportion of
Page | 24 Tolland Village Retail Market Study students who choose to live off campus will increase dramatically in the future, the Town of Tolland will have to compete with the neighboring towns of Windham, Coventry, and Willington for these students.
Higher real estate values than neighboring communities and quintessential New England charm have contributed to the appeal of moving to Tolland for faculty and staff. The disproportionately smaller number of undergraduate students from the University compared to neighboring communities has allowed Tolland to distinguish itself as the more mature and livable community for those seeking to locate near the University. The Next Generation Connecticut expansion will increase the number of workers at the University seeking a community like Tolland to locate their family. Retail development that supports this demographic group will be the most successful strategy to bolster the development of the Tolland Village area. It should be noted that attracting graduate students to the community may actually provide a higher level of value added than faculty or staff as they have comparable spending patterns but will not impose an increased burden on the local school system.
Conclusions and Recommendations
The Town of Tolland has been quite successful historically at attracting a highly educated population with an elevated level of disposable income. As development at and around the University of Connecticut continues, it will be increasing important for Tolland to differentiate itself as a suburban community that offers a different set of amenities with a different local population that that of neighboring Mansfield. As such, it is important to consider retail development that will enhance the livability of the community as it pertains to this crucial demographic group. The workforce implications from the Next Generation Connecticut expansion will generate an increased demand for housing and retail establishments in Tolland. The success, of which, can be magnified by strategically targeting specific types of retailers that will enhance the appeal of Tolland to this demographic.
A sector with a retail gap or low level of surplus is one that residents are currently leaving the community to make purchases. There were a total of eight retail sectors identified in Tolland that met this criteria. After considering the appeal to the target population, the best positioned retailers to enhance the livability of Tolland include Pubs & Taverns, Specialty Grocery, Book Periodical & Music, and Lawn & Garden establishments.
Pubs & Taverns had the largest retail gap in Tolland and represents a significant opportunity to capture lost consumption, however, it is critically important to consider the appropriate demographic for development in this sector. Pubs & Taverns along with destination restaurants
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catering to the affluent demographic that currently lives in the area will continue to make the town an attract location for young professionals.
Specialty Grocery stores are extremely underrepresented in both Tolland and the 10 minute retail area but are extremely appealing to educated young professionals like those that will result from the expansion at the University of Connecticut. Specialty retail could include both large retailers like whole foods or traders Joes or a smaller farm cooperative like the Willimantic Coop.
Book Periodical & Music retailers are an excellent way to compliment an already successful retail area and can increase foot traffic in the Tolland Village area.
Lawn & Garden stores has obvious appeal to a town with a large proportion of owner occupied housing but need not necessarily be restricted to locations with a high degree of commuter traffic as it can be considered a destination retailer.
A retail sector with a high retail surplus is one that residents from outside of the community travel to the location to make purchases. Although these sectors are already well represented in the community, complimentary development can help to further enhance Tolland as a destination for these types of retail and bolster the town’s competitive advantage. There were a total of eight retail sectors identified in Tolland that met these criteria. After considering the appeal to the target population, the best positioned retailers to enhance the livability of Tolland include Clothing, Restaurants, Specialty Food Services, Jewelry & Luxury Goods, and Sporting Goods & Hobby establishments.
Clothing stores offer an excellent opportunity for boutique retailers to establish themselves in the Tolland Village area and could be quite successful as a result of the elevated per capita income in the community.
Restaurants are a retail surplus in Tolland but under-represented compared to other surrounding areas and can help bolster food traffic throughout the Tolland Village area. As mentioned before in the case of pubs and taverns, destination restaurants catering to the affluent demographic that currently lives in the area will continue to make the town an attract location for young professionals.
Specialty Food Services, again, appeal to a young affluent population and include butcher shops, catering establishments, and cafes.
Jewelry & Luxury Goods establishments are already well-represented in Tolland and complimentary retail development can help to bolster this competitive advantage.
Sporting Goods & Hobby establishments, although a sector with a retail surplus in Tolland, are drastically underrepresented compared to neighboring regions and further retail could benefit from an elevated regional demand.
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The Tolland Village area is at an important point where a strategic economic development plan can enhance the livability of the community. However, strategically attracting the best retail establishments that appeal to the current and anticipated demographics of the community is critical for the development to be successful. Enhancing the livability of Tolland and differentiating it from the neighboring undergraduate community in Mansfield is necessary to attract the additional faculty and staff that will result from the expansion at the University of Connecticut. Continuing to attract a well educated and affluent population to Tolland will help ensure continued economic prosperity within the community.