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Tolland Village Retail Market Study

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Tolland Village Retail Market Study 2013 Tolland Village Retail Market Study Analysis and strategic recommendations for targeted economic development in the Tolland Village area, prepared for the Town of Tolland by the Connecticut Economic Resource Center Inc. Page | 2 Tolland Village Retail Market Study Connecticut Economic Resource Center Inc. CERC is a nonprofit corporation and public-private partnership that provides economic development services consistent with state strategies, leveraging Connecticut’s unique advantages as a premier business location. The Connecticut Economic Resource Center Inc. 805 Brook Street, Building 4. Rocky Hill, CT 06067 (860) 571 7136 www.CERC.com Primary Research Contacts Alissa K. DeJonge Vice President of Research Connecticut Economic Resource Center (860) 571-6206 [email protected] Matthew B. Ross Research Associate Connecticut Economic Resource Center (860) 258-1687 [email protected] Page | 3 Tolland Village Retail Market Study The Town of Tolland commissioned the Connecticut Economic Resource Center, Inc. to conduct a retail market study to assess existing and emerging retail opportunities. The primary goal of this analysis is to quantify the potential impact of the development of Storrs Center and the expansion of the University of Connecticut on the demand for retail and support services in the Tolland Village area. The retail market study consists of a qualitative assessment of the impact from developments at and around the University of Connecticut as well as a comprehensive demographic, industry, workforce, and retail marketplace analysis. The goal of the study is to gauge demographic and market characteristics to determine the types of establishments that will experience an increased demand so that the Town of Tolland can better target its recruitment efforts. Table of Contents Executive Summary.............................................................................................................................................. 4 Introduction and Methodology ........................................................................................................................ 7 Demographic Composition Analysis .............................................................................................................. 8 Figure 1: Age Demographics ................................................................................................................................................................. 9 Figure 2: Gender, Racial, and Ethnicity Demographics ........................................................................................................... 10 Figure 3: Educational Attainment .................................................................................................................................................... 10 Industry Composition Analysis ..................................................................................................................... 11 Figure 4: Industry Composition ........................................................................................................................................................ 11 Figure 5: Historic Industry Performance ...................................................................................................................................... 12 Figure 6: Future Industry Performance ......................................................................................................................................... 12 Figure 7: Average Annual Industry Earnings .............................................................................................................................. 13 Workforce Composition Analysis ................................................................................................................. 13 Figure 8: Workforce Composition .................................................................................................................................................... 14 Figure 9: Historic Workforce Performance .................................................................................................................................. 14 Figure 10: Future Workforce Performance .................................................................................................................................. 15 Figure 11: Median Hourly Workforce Earnings ......................................................................................................................... 15 Retail Marketplace Analysis ............................................................................................................................ 16 Figure 12: Income Profile ..................................................................................................................................................................... 16 Figure 13: Retail Employment in the Tolland Commuter Shed .......................................................................................... 17 Figure 14: Retail Employment in Tolland ..................................................................................................................................... 18 Figure 15: Computer Patterns in Tolland ..................................................................................................................................... 19 Figure 16: Industries with a Consumption Gap or Low Retail Surplus ........................................................................... 20 Figure 17: Industries with a High Retail Surplus ....................................................................................................................... 21 Impact from the University of Connecticut ............................................................................................... 22 Conclusions and Recommendations ............................................................................................................ 24 Page | 4 Tolland Village Retail Market Study Executive Summary A retail market study consists of a comprehensive assessment of the current demographic and market characteristics of a region. The study is useful in determining the types of establishments that are currently underrepresented in a region or are projected to experience an increase in demand. This analysis consists of four distinct components that detail the current economic climate, consumer base, and retail opportunities in Tolland. A subsequent section outlining the development of Storrs Center and the expansion taking place at the University of Connecticut discusses the implications that these structural changes will have on the local economy in Tolland. Finally, the findings from each of these distinct analyses were synergized and used to create a detailed set of recommended retail sectors. Findings from the demographic composition analysis include: The younger portion of the working age population in Tolland from ages 25 to 44 was higher than Tolland County but much lower than across both Connecticut and the United States. Attracting more individuals from the 25 to 44 year old age range (especially the age 25 to 34 population) to live in Tolland is an excellent way to sustainably grow the local economy as these individuals have a much higher level of discretionary income. The proportion of the population of Caucasian descent present in Tolland was slightly higher than the 90 percent in Tolland County but significantly higher than the 79 percent in Connecticut and 74 percent across the United States. A total of 47 percent of the population in Tolland had a bachelor’s degree or higher indicating that the town has been quite successful at capturing an older and highly educated resident population. Findings from the industry composition analysis include: The largest industry in Tolland was Government due to the presence of a large state police installation. This industry accounted for 23 percent of Tolland’s employment. Only two of Tolland’s eight largest industries experienced net job growth over the period of 2008- 2012 – Social & Nursing Assistance and Food Services & Drinking Places. The Social & Nursing Assistance industry created the largest number of net new jobs with a total of 48. The Publishing and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services industries are expected to produce the most new jobs, 77 and 70, respectively. The highest average yearly earnings were found in the Merchant Wholesalers (Nondurable Goods) industry with a value over $145,000, which is greater than the average earned within this industry at both the county and state levels. Page | 5 Tolland Village Retail Market Study Findings from the workforce composition analysis include: The largest occupation, in terms of employment of Tolland residents, is Elementary & Middle School Teachers, which accounted for nearly 6 percent of total employment. This is a greater concentration of Elementary & Middle School Teachers than at the county and state levels. The second largest occupation within Tolland, as well as Tolland County, is Nursing, Psychiatric, & Home Health Aides, which accounts for 4 percent. The only occupation that experienced job growth during this period was Nursing, Psychiatric, & Home Health Aides, which was consistent with the fact that this occupation also saw growth at both the county and state levels. The largest net and percentage job growth is expected within the second largest occupation for Tolland residents, the Nursing, Psychiatric, & Home Health Aides occupation, which is
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