CHAD Food Security Outlook July to December 2014 The food security situation remains precarious in the regions of Bahr El Ghazel and

KEY MESSAGES Current food security outcomes, July 2014

 The food security situation for poor households in Bahr El Ghazel (BEG) and Wadi Fira is a continuing source of concern. Household food stocks from market purchases are inadequate due to the extremely limited sources of income in these areas. Despite ongoing food assistance programs, households will be unable to meet their food needs between now and the upcoming October harvests and will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3!).

 The distribution of rainfall in June in the Sudanian zone was worse than usual. This delayed crop planting activities and required the localized replanting of crops, particularly in Mayo Kebbi, Tandjilé, Logone Occidental, , Moyen Chari, and Mandoul.

 The July rains in the Sahelian zone triggered crop planting activities in villages across the area. In addition, these rains filled

seasonal lakes and ponds used as animal watering holes, Source: FEWS NET providing pastoralists with water for their livestock and, before long, a good supply of pasture. This will improve the physical This map shows relevant current acute food insecurity outcomes for emergency decision-making. It does not condition of the emaciated animals in certain areas, along with necessarily reflect chronic food insecurity. milk availability, pastoral incomes, and food access for local households.

 With upcoming harvests of early crops, the seasonal decline in cereal prices, and the improvement in pastoral conditions, there will be Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity in nearly all parts of the country between October and December. The sole exception is the country’s population of refugees and returnees from the CAR who, without continued humanitarian assistance, will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity.

SEASONAL CALENDAR FOR A TYPICAL YEAR

Source: FEWS NET

FEWS NET FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect [email protected] the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States www.fews.net Government.

CHAD Food Security Outlook July to December 2014

NATIONAL OVERVIEW Most likely estimated food security outcomes for July through September 2014 Current situation The poorer than usual distribution of rainfall in June in southern areas of the country delayed planting activities and caused localized replanting of crops in the Sudanian zone, particularly in Mayo Kebbi, Tandjilé, Logone Occidental, Logone Oriental, Moyen Chari, and Mandoul. The main agricultural activity at this time is crop maintenance work (weeding and field clean-up). This is creating labor opportunities and is strengthening income sources for poor households.

In spite of the delay in the effective start-of-season in the Sahelian zone, there has been normal widespread rainfall since the beginning of July in the Sila, Guera, , Ouaddaï, and Ouest regions. Crop planting activities have started up and expanded across all agricultural areas.

There has been normal levels of new pasture growth and animals Source: FEWS NET who were previously in poor condition are gradually putting on weight, as is normal for this time of the year. In addition, there will Most likely estimated food security outcomes for soon be milk on local markets. At this time, water availability is not an October through December 2014 issue as there are plenty of livestock watering holes. Animals are currently in good health and transhumant households are currently moving northwards with their herds, in line with the normal seasonal calendar for transhumant movements.

Since the beginning of July, markets in the Sudanian zone have been well-stocked with all types of cereals from wholesale trader inventories and ONASA (National Food Security Agency) reserves. This should meet consumer demand until the first harvests of early crops at the end of July. These cereal stocks are further bolstered by plentiful supplies of wild plant foods, “winter” vegetables, and tuber crops (taro, sweet potatoes, and cassava) on local markets from ongoing harvests in southern areas. The consumption of these foods is improving household food security during the ongoing lean season and is reducing demand for cereal crops. Price trends in the Sudanian zones are seasonally normal with sorghum prices on the Sarh market, for example, up 11 percent from June 2014. Source: FEWS NET

There is also a seasonal upward trend in staple cereal prices in the Sahelian zone attributable in part to the ongoing lean season, as well as to the high demand from deficit-producing areas and for the observance of Ramadan. For example, July cereal prices in Mongo were 19 percent above the five-year average due to increased demand from traders from who are buying most of their supplies in Mongo.

The closure of the country’s border with Libya has had an effect on supplies of pasta products, oil, sugar, and rice in the BET area. However, there are larger than usual daily shipments of cereal from Abéché northward, via Biltine, to fill the void created by the lack of imports from Libya. There are also normal levels of informal cereal trade from the border area of Tissi (Sila) to Amdoukhoun (), Addé (Sila) to Farbaranga (Sudan), Adré to El-Geneina (Sudan), and Tiné (Northeast Biltine in ) to Koulbousse (Sudan) in 20-ton vehicles and carts. These cereal transfers to Sudan are driving up prices on the Abéché market, which gets its supplies from these same primary markets. More precisely, millet and sorghum prices in Abéché are above the five-year average by eight percent and 14 percent, respectively, which is eroding the purchasing

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CHAD Food Security Outlook July to December 2014 power of poor households in the area. There has also been a seasonal normal, large flow of cereals from the southern part of the country to the Sahelian zone during the ongoing lean season.

Most livestock at this time is domestic, with foreign trade restricted by the conflicts in Nigeria and the CAR and the closure of the border with Libya. Certain southern markets, as well as certain markets in N’Djamena, had unusually large supplies of animals in July due to the influx of livestock from the CAR. This drove down prices on certain markets such as Moundou, where goat prices are 23 percent below the five-year average. However, June livestock prices on markets in N’Djamena were 32 percent above-average, fueled by high demand for meat during Ramadan.

Poor households in the Batha, BEG, Wadi Fira, , and northern Guera regions depleted their food stocks by April/May, two to three months earlier than usual, due to last year’s below-average crop production. They are also facing higher cereal prices compared to last year’s levels and below-average livestock prices for livestock. This is weakening the purchasing power of poor households and is making it more difficult than usual for them to maintain their food access.

The first wave of returnees from the CAR late last year arrived in small groups. Many stayed with host families before continuing on to other major resettlement areas, where they have been housed at new camp sites since January/February 2014. There are currently six such camps in the country’s three southern regions (Moyen Chari, Mandoul, and Logone Oriental) accommodating roughly 106,000 returnees and refugees. These households are currently receiving sufficient supplies of food and nonfood assistance from the WFP, FAO, and other humanitarian organizations to meet their basic needs.

In general, the nutritional situation is stable in the south, where children are being fed cassava, cowpeas, wild fruits, nuts (shea nuts), and guinea fowl eggs. On the other hand, the FEWS NET monitor visiting the Doba Regional Hospital on July 19th reported that many children of returnees are hospitalized for common seasonal illnesses such as anemia, malaria, and diarrhea.

Food security situation Figure 1. Consolidated seasonal outlook: Expected With the earlier than usual depletion of household cereal anomalies between August and October 2014 stocks due to a poor 2013/14 crop production, below-average agricultural incomes, and above-average cereal prices, poor households in southern Bahr El Ghazel and Wadi Fira are currently facing food consumption deficits and are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3!). Poor households in Batha, the northern BEG, Kanem, and Guera are also feeling the effects of the below-average 2013/14 crop production and poor pastoral conditions, though not to the same degree as households in Wadi Fira and Bahr El Ghazel. With their food consumption reduced but still minimally adequate, their food security situation is Stressed (IPC Phase 2!). Households in the rest of the country are experiencing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity.

Assumptions The most likely food security scenario for July through December 2014 is based on the following national-level assumptions:

Seasonal progress: Source: CPC  Rainy season: Forecasts by weather forecasting centers (IRI, ECMWF, CPC) show no major anomalies in Chad for the next few months. Thus, FEWS NET is expecting a near-average level and distribution of rainfall between July and the end of the season (between September and the beginning of November, depending on the region in question). However, cumulative rainfall totals for the 2014 rainy season as a whole will be average to slightly below-average due to the reported rainfall deficits across much of the country in June.

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CHAD Food Security Outlook July to December 2014

 Water availability: Based on the rainfall outlook described above, FEWS NET is expecting normal streamflow conditions and water table levels in all agro-ecological zones. There will also be normal levels of flooding, which will not cause above-average crop losses.  Locust situation: According to FAO seasonal forecasts, the central and northeastern parts of the country could see a few small locust swarms in July from Algeria and Libya, where there have been untreated locust infestations. In addition, there will be some small-scale locust breeding activities once the rainy season settles in, causing a normal increase in the numbers of locusts. As a result, locust populations will be average, with a limited amount of crop and pasture losses.  Crop production: Food crop production is expected to be average in all agricultural areas with harvests of early- maturing crop varieties starting in October. Despite the poor distribution of rainfall in June and the below-average availability of fertilizer this year in southern regions, an average harvest is still expected due to a larger area planted in crops this year with the increased usage of tractors.  Off-season crop production: Market gardening activities starting up in October in areas surrounding year-round and semi-permanent water sources should be normal. Crop yields from these activities will help households diversify their sources of food and income.  Pastoral conditions: Based on projected cumulative rainfall totals and the spatial-temporal distribution of rainfall, there should be average levels of pasture and crop residue production in both pastoral and agropastoral areas. There should also be a normal pattern of transhumance movements and a seasonally normal improvement in livestock body conditions and milk production between July and December. As usual, north/south herd movements by transhumant households will start up in November-December with the end of the harvest in southern agricultural and agropastoral areas. Animals will have a good supply of pasture and water and will begin producing milk in quantity as of August. Livestock disease outbreaks will be limited and similar to a normal year.

Cross-border conflicts and population displacements:  Closure of the border with the Central African Republic: The country’s border with the CAR will remain closed throughout the outlook period. As a result, there will be no trade flows between the two countries, though there will be a continuing influx of refugees and returnees due to the porosity of the border. FEWS NET is expecting the size of the CAR refugee/returnee population in southern Chad will increase to approximately 150,000 between now and December 2014.  Closure of the border with Libya/civil insecurity in southern Libya: The current level of civil insecurity will remain unchanged into next year, resulting in losses of remittance income and income from camel exports for Chad’s immigrant population. Markets in the BET area will continue to receive supplies from Libya, but quantities will be limited compared with normal seasonal trends.  Conflict in northeastern Nigeria: There will be no change in the current level of conflict in this area. Seasonal migration to Nigeria will be slowed, reduc ing labor migration income and cash remittance flows to Chad.

Trade and price dynamics:  Cereal supply/availability: Supplies will be adequate to meet needs, with no shortages, outages, or pressure on market supply in any part of the country. Markets will also be stocked with crops from ONASA inventories in July. These supplies will be bolstered by fresh tuber, sorghum, and green maize crops harvested in August and normal yields from the main cereal harvest in October.  Domestic cereal trade: There will be a typical slowdown in intra-zonal trade and transfers from the Sudanian to the Sahelian zone beginning in July, once the rainy season settles in. As usual, these trade flows will subsequently pick up with the end of the rainy season, as road conditions improve.  Cereal demand: Household market demand will steadily increase, peaking in July-August as usual. Based on the good seasonal outlook, household market demand will be minimal between October and December with widespread harvests in all agricultural areas. On the other hand, institutional and commercial demand will be minimal through September, before steadily increasing between October and the end of December, as fresh crops for the 2014 season are shipped to market.  Cereal prices: Prices will continue to rise as the lean season runs its course, until the arrival of early crops on local markets at the end of July or the beginning of August. Prices, particularly for millet, will be slightly above the five- year average during this period, fueled by high demand for the month-long observance of Ramadan. Based on the expected average growing season which will encourage traders to unload their inventories, prices for all coarse cereal crops should start to decline starting in August, particularly for millet and maize. Prices in southern Chad,

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CHAD Food Security Outlook July to December 2014

which is feeling the effects of the conflict in the CAR, will stay well above-average through December due to growing demand from refugees/returnees and the absence of trade flows from CAR (particularly for maize imports). However, prices should start to come down from their peak lean season levels starting in October.  Livestock supply: As of July of this year, most livestock will be concentrated in traditional pastoral areas (Wadi Fira, BEG, and Kanem), gradually heading back down to southern markets (Sido, Péni) in November, similar to a normal year. Thus, there will be large supplies of livestock in pastoral areas, such as northern BEG, northern Batha, Kanem, and northern Wadi Fira, and low supplies in agricultural and agropastoral areas through the end of September. Supplies in southern areas will begin to gradually improve as of October, peaking in December. Livestock supplies in areas along the Chad-CAR border will be high due to the large presence of animals belonging to CAR returnees on local markets.  Livestock trade: There will be fewer than usual exports to Nigeria, the CAR, and Libya with the continuing civil insecurity in these three countries and the resulting border closures. Cross-border trade with Sudan will be normal.  Demand for livestock: Demand for cattle and poultry will peak in July, while demand for small ruminants will peak in September/October, fueled by the observance of Ramadan and subsequent celebration of Tabaski. There will be another seasonal peak in demand for all types of animals in December for the year-end holiday season. Demand will be slightly larger than in previous years due to population growth and a weaker than usual foreign demand from neighboring countries (Nigeria, the CAR, and Libya).  Livestock prices: Cattle prices in the Sudanian zone will continue to fluctuate, with the large market presence of animals belonging to CAR returnees expected to cause prices to trend downwards. However in other areas, livestock prices will surpass seasonal averages by July, with a visible improvement in livestock-to-cereals terms of trade through at least the end of December 2014. Livestock prices in Abéché, N’Djamena, Mongo, and Massaguet (major assembly and retail markets for livestock) could inch upwards between July and September, fueled by high local demand for the observance of Ramadan (in July) and the celebration of Tabaski (at the beginning of October). Prices will come down slightly by November, only to rebound in December with the year-end holiday season.

Other issues:  Agricultural lean season: Based on an expected normal growing season, the lean season for agricultural households should end on-time in August in the Sudanian zone and in September in the Sahelian zone.  In-kind wages: Based on an expected near-normal progression of the growing season, poor households should earn normal in-kind wages during the weeding period (late July/August).  Income from petty commerce: There will be normal levels of income from this source with the smooth flow of intra and inter-zone trade.

Most likely food security outcomes

July through September Household food security in the Sudanian zone will start to improve by the middle of July with the first harvests of short- cycle crops and the marketing of cereal crops at subsidized prices by the ONASA since the beginning of July. Thus, as of August, households in these regions will experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity. The country’s returnee and refugee population (approximately 106,000 people) will also experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1!) food insecurity, but will be reliant on humanitarian assistance to meet their basic food and nonfood needs. However, current food distribution programs are only funded through the end of August. Without continued assistance, this population will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food security conditions as of September. However, the size of the refugee population of any department does not meet the threshold of 20 percent of the total population required for determining an area’s IPC classification, except in (Moyen Chari). Thus, all southern areas of the country are classified as in the Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity phase, except for Grande Sido, which is classified as experiencing Minimal (IPC Phase 1!) food insecurity only due to the impact of humanitarian assistance between now and the end of August.

In the Sahelian zone, the food consumption of poor households in Batha, Kanem, Hadjer Lamis, and Guera will be reduced. These households will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) food insecurity due to the negative effects of last year’s low rainfall levels on crop production and pastoral conditions and, thus, on household incomes and food access. Households in the southern BEG area and Wadi Fira, where the effects were especially severe, will continue to face food consumption deficits. They will barely meet their basic food needs and will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3!) through September.

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CHAD Food Security Outlook July to December 2014

October through December Average October harvests in the Sahelian zone will strengthen and maintain normal food availability and access for households in all Sahelian regions, including those in Crisis up until September in the BEG and Wadi Fira regions. Household dependence on market purchasing will be sharply reduced and there will be an improvement in household food consumption during this period. Thus, based on the analysis of acute food insecurity indicators, households across the country will experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity, except for returnees and refugees who could face consumption deficits and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food security outcomes without an extension of current food assistance programs.

AREAS OF CONCERN

Bahr El Ghazel Sud

Current situation Food stocks were depleted two to three months earlier than usual (by January-February instead of April) due to last year’s poor cereal production (down 25 percent compared to average). Pastoral conditions are also below-average and poorer than last year due to low 2013 rainfall and the late start of this year’s rains. This triggered a premature seasonal migration of transhumant households and their livestock southwards, reducing milk availability for poor sedentary households and translating into below-normal food consumption.

The main agricultural activity in July is plowing, with the availability of tractors allowing for the plowing of larger and more diverse areas. However, in the absence of useful rainfall, land is being dry-plowed. There is little demand for labor at this time of year as market gardening activities have ended to make room for the growing of major rainfed crops.

In spite of the unusually low supply of coarse cereal crops from markets in the region for this time of year, trade flows from other regions (Chari-Baguirmi, Lake Chad, Ngama, Bokoro, etc.) are able to cover the intra-zone trade deficit. In addition, there is an ongoing normal flow of commercial trade in millet and maize between the southern BEG area and Bokoro, Ngama, Mongo, and Bol and with Libya for rice imports. Though still slower than usual, there is a larger flow of trade with Libya compared with last year due to the improvement in security conditions.

Prices for maize, millet, and rice in Moussoro are coming down and are well below the five-year average for this time of year due to a normal market supply and flow of trade, as well as the marketing of cereals at subsidized prices (nearly 50 percent below market price). More precisely, maize prices are relatively close to the five-year average (-5.3 percent) while millet prices are down eight percent and imported rice prices are down 15 percent.

July livestock prices in Moussoro were also down from last year (by 20 percent for goats and 41 percent for sheep) with poor households selling more small ruminants than usual to meet their needs for Ramadan. The lack of other sources of household income this year has increased livestock supplies.

In general, poor households in this area have below-average incomes. With the shortage of pasture and poor physical condition of livestock, incomes from milk sales are below-normal. There are also lower than usual levels of borrowing due to the below-normal incomes of better-off households from crop sales. There are near-normal levels of income from the sale of firewood and no appreciable increase in income from internal rural-urban migration (to Abéché and N'Djamena) despite the larger number of household members engaged in labor migration this year as a coping strategy. Thus, this migration income has not filled the gap left by the below-average incomes from other sources. With the security problems in neighboring countries (Libya and Nigeria), flow of short-term seasonal migration income and migrant remittances (from permanent migrant workers) are also smaller than usual.

Humanitarian assistance levels are above-average for this time of year on account of the difficulties in this area, and has helped mitigate shortfalls in food and income. Households across the BEG region (11,823 households) have been receiving emergency assistance since April in the form of cash transfer payments at the rate of 60,000 FCFA per household. In addition, food-for-work programs building water reservoirs have provided food to 5,119 program recipients.

Food security situation

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CHAD Food Security Outlook July to December 2014

Households are currently having serious problems maintaining food access due to the earlier than usual depletion of their food stocks, their unusually limited milk consumption, and their reduced incomes. They are trying to manage by resorting to different coping strategies such as the sale of two to three goats/sheep instead of the normal one animal, unusually intense migration, and cutbacks in nonfood spending (i.e. on seeds and medical care for young children). Such strategies have been detrimental to household livelihoods in this area and have not sufficed to enable local households to meet their basic food needs. Thus, even with the humanitarian assistance programs and these coping strategies, local households are facing food consumption deficits and are currently experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3!) levels of food insecurity.

Assumptions The most likely food security scenario for July through December 2014 in South Bahr El Ghazel is based on the following assumptions:

Seasonal progress:  Rainfall: Forecasts by major weather forecasting centers (IRI, ECMWF, CPC) show no anomalies in this area between July and September. Thus, there should be normal cumulative rainfall totals and a normal distribution of the rainfall. Most of the rain will fall between July and September, with cumulative rainfall totals ranging from 420 to 490 mm. Since millet, the main crop grown in this area, requires 350 mm of rainfall during the season to complete its growing cycle, there should be sufficient rainfall for millet crops to fully mature.  Crop production: Concerns about finding themselves in the same food security situation next year, the availability of tractors, and humanitarian assistance (i.e. seed assistance) will prompt poor households to cultivate larger areas this year than last. This will translate into average to slightly above-average levels of crop production starting in October.  Animal production: Very poor households have no access to feed supplements for their livestock due to their weak purchasing power. However, the condition of pastures will improve with the start of the rainy season in June/July which, in turn, will improve the physical condition of livestock. Thus, there will be a normal availability of animal products (milk and butter) starting in July and through the outlook period.

Trade and price dynamics:  Cereal availability: Intra and inter- Figure 2. Projected retail prices for maize on the Moussoro market regional trade flows, as well as the through December 2014 humanitarian presence, will ensure a normal availability of cereal crops on area markets throughout the outlook period. Cereal flows from Bokoro, Ngama, Bol, and N’Djamena will be normal to below-normal on account of the distribution of free food rations, subsidized sales by the ONASA, and poor road conditions during the rainy season. Trade flows will be limited during the harvest season (October – December), with local market inventories coming primarily from neighboring Source: FEWS NET areas.  Cereal demand: There will be above-average demand for cereal crops through the end of September, fueled by the depletion of cereal stocks and the observance of Ramadan. Demand will stabilize between October and December.  Cereal prices: The observance of Ramadan and the high demand associated with the lean season could drive cereal prices on the Moussoro market to slightly above-average levels. Thus, prices for maize will edge upwards (by 6.5 percent) between July and August, peaking at around 271 FCFA/kg in August. They will be 17 percent higher than at the same time last year and six percent above the five-year average. Prices will come down between August and the end of September, stabilizing at around 245 FCFA/kg between October and December.

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CHAD Food Security Outlook July to December 2014

 Household cereal stocks: While cereal stocks depleted earlier than normal this year, it is normal for households to have no cereal stocks between July and September. However, new crops from the upcoming October harvests will enable local households to rebuild their stocks to normal levels.  Livestock prices: There is the usual large volume of small ruminant sales during the annual fasting period of Ramadan, with poor households selling more animals to cover their needs. The large supply of animals will cause July prices for sheep in Moussoro to drop to levels that are eight percent below average. Moreover, the upcoming celebration of Tabaski in October will have little impact on sheep prices, with prices falling to levels that are 11 percent below-average (22,500 FCFA/head compared to an average of 25,150 FCFA/head), due to the large concentration of transhumant livestock in this area at that time. Terms of trade will bottoming out in July (with a sheep trading for 102 kg of maize compared with 105 kg in March), before then improving in August and September, leveling off in October and November, and then increasing again to 105 kg of maize/sheep in December with the year-end holiday season.

Incomes of poor households:  Cash reserves: With last year’s cereal production shortfall, there were below-average levels of income generated from crop sales and farm labor earlier this year. As a result, households will have no remaining cash reserves from these activities during the outlook period.  Total incomes: In general, total incomes of very poor and poor households will be approximately 33 percent below-average during the outlook period. More precisely, incomes from major sources will be shaped by the following trends: o Farm labor: Due to the different humanitarian assistance programs in the area, beneficiaries will be able to concentrate on working their own land, causing below-average incomes from this source. o Livestock sales: Income levels from this source will be less than half the normal levels. Despite selling additional animals, falling prices and the poor physical condition of livestock will cause a decrease in income levels during the outlook period. The resulting shortfall in income will not be offset by higher prices observed during both holiday seasons. o Construction work: There will be less than half the usual level of income from this source due to the low water levels in semi-permanent lakes and ponds, which will not fill up completely and will dry up slightly earlier than normal due to last year’s rainfall deficits. o Sale of cereal/market garden crops: There will be well-below-average levels of income from this source with poor households selling fewer crops than usual to avoid the premature depletion of their food stocks, as was the case last year. o Remittances: Despite the larger numbers of youths migrating to large cities, incomes from this source will be average due to the average job opportunities in these areas. o Sale of firewood: There will be above-average levels of income from this source with households scaling up this activity as a coping strategy.

Other issues:  Wild plant foods: There will be less consumption of wild plant foods than usual due to last year’s low levels of rainfall, limiting wild plant production.  Borrowing: After last year’s poor crop production, even better-off households have fewer means with which to make loans to poor households this year. As a result, poor households will borrow less than usual.  Humanitarian assistance: Deliveries of humanitarian assistance will end in August due to a lack of funding.

Most likely food security outcomes The already limited cereal access of households in this area since the first half of the year will be further curtailed between July and September as the lean season peaks, creating an extremely precarious food security situation. Very poor and poor households will be highly dependent on market purchasing during this period, but will have less income with which to make these purchases, which will significantly and atypically curtail their cereal access. Household food access from other sources (milk, wild plant foods, and borrowing) will equally be limited. Households have already sold more small ruminants than usual, which will limit their prospects of generating any extra income to maintain their food access. Thus, the outlook period will be marked by food shortages with neither coping strategies nor food assistance enabling households to meet their basic food needs. Poor households will cut back essential spending on health and education, face food consumption deficits and will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3!) during this period.

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CHAD Food Security Outlook July to December 2014

Between October and December, expected October harvests, a decline in cereal prices, and the availability of milk will improve the food security situation, enabling households to meet their basic food needs. Households will be able to generate food from their normal sources and revive their normal income sources without much difficulty. Thus, they will experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity.

Returnees and refugees from the CAR Figure 3. Distribution of camps for CAR refugees in Chad, by region As of July 21st, there was an estimated total of 106,000 refugees and repatriates from the Central African Republic, with the majority housed at six camps in three southern regions of the country (Moyen Chari, Mandoul, and Logone Oriental). Approximately 63,000 people are living in camps and close to 42,000 are living outside the camps, either with host families or independently. Households of refugees and returnees are largely reliant on institutional food and nonfood assistance (from the WFP, FAO, and other humanitarian organizations) to meet their basic needs. However, most of these households supplement this assistance by engaging in various food and income- Source: UNOCHA producing activities.

With the fairly large demand for straw and rope in the camps for putting up tents, etc., sales of these products are providing returnees and refugees with a source of cash income. Other major sources of income include the sale of wood, motorcycle transport services, fishing, the sale of market garden crops and wild plant foods, petty commerce, materials handling services (loading and unloading), the slaughtering of livestock, and casual labor at the camp (i.e. building latrines). Though some returnees/refugees do farm work, they are not officially permitted to work outside the camp, preventing an appreciable increase in local competition.

Moreover, many of the CAR pastoralists came with a few head of stock and are selling small ruminants in order to purchase food and other commodities on the local market, having arrived in the country without bedding or sufficient cooking tools and equipment. The returnees/refugees generally have large enough herds that the sale of one or two extra animals will not negatively affect their livelihoods. July prices for small ruminants (goats) were well above the five-year average, fueled by high demand caused by the presence of large construction firms and humanitarian organizations as part of programs for returnees. July prices for sheep were up from June by 14 percent while prices for goats were more or less unchanged from July 2013 (+1 percent) and 52 percent above the five-year average.

Terms of trade (goats/sorghum) are better than in July of last year and above the five-year average. A household could trade an animal for 105 kg of sorghum in July 2014, compared with 83 kg of sorghum for the same animal last year and the five-year average of only 70 kg.

The government has already made grants of arable land to close to 771 returnee households averaging ¼ ha per household, enabling them to engage in farming activities for the 2014/2015 growing season. The main farming activities are the planting of short-cycle varieties of rice, millet, maize, peanut, and sesame crops and the weeding of sorghum crops. Farming activities for the current growing season in this area got underway two to three weeks sooner than usual with the early rains in April (a month earlier than usual).

In addition to the food rations furnished by the WFP and other humanitarian organizations, other household food sources include wild plant foods, milk, and provisions purchased on local markets. There is a normal availability of wild vegetables and other wild plant foods for the population of this refugee/returnee receiving area. In addition, the good green pasture cover is creating good grazing conditions and there is a normal availability of water across the area, sustaining normal levels of milk production by the refugees and returnees.

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CHAD Food Security Outlook July to December 2014

Returnees are purchasing provisions on the same markets frequented by host populations. In general, village marketplaces are sufficiently well-stocked with crops from the above-average 2013 production levels. The sole exception is the frequent shortage of cassava, which normally came from the CAR before the closure of the border with that country. The Gorē market had also been getting its maize supplies from the CAR before the closure of the border, but there is currently no transportation service and trade has been suspended. Demand for food crops has increased since the first wave of returnees from the CAR with the growth in the size of the population and its food needs. The returnees eat mostly maize and cassava, their two dietary staples.

The interplay of a high demand and more or less average (to below-average in the case of crops normally furnished by the CAR) supply has driven up food prices. Thus, maize prices on the Gorē market jumped from 255 FCFA/coro in July of last year to 280 FCFA this July, affecting the purchasing power of host populations and returnees alike.

Food security situation Households are currently having no difficulty meeting their basic food needs with the regular distributions of food rations. In spite of rising cereal prices, some households are also purchasing foods from local markets, where there is no shortage of food, using cash earnings from the different activities described earlier as a way to supplement the rations provided by humanitarian organizations. During a joint mission conduct at the end of May by WFP, FAO, the Chadian government, FEWS NET, and the Ministry of Health, returnees reported eating three to four times a day. Thus, returnees and refugees are experiencing Minimal (IPC Phase 1!) food insecurity. The food security situation of host populations has also improved with harvests of early crops and subsidized sales by the ONASA. As a result, these poor households are also experiencing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity.

Assumptions The most likely food security scenario for July through December 2014 for returnees and refugees from the CAR is based on the following assumptions:

Seasonal progress:  Rainy season: Major forecasting centers are not predicting any anomalies in this area. Thus, FEWS NET is expecting normal rainfall conditions. The rains will last through the end of October, with most of the rain falling between July and September. Cumulative rainfall totals will range from approximately 1090 to 1240 mm, with a normal distribution of rainfall.  Harvests: According to harvest forecasts, there will be average to above-average harvests in this area for the current growing season due to the larger areas planted in crops with the availability of tractors supplied by the Ministry of Agriculture.  Market garden crops: The distribution of farm inputs furnished by the humanitarian community will enable returnees/refugees to engage in market gardening activities. Thus, there will be harvests of market garden crops in July and, again, in November/December.

Humanitarian assistance:  WFP operations: The humanitarian community (the FAO, WFP, and other humanitarian organizations) is providing 77,600 returnees with food and nonfood assistance and improved seeds. These programs are planned, funded, and scheduled to continue through the end of August

Trade and price dynamics:  Cereal supply: The shutdown of the border has reduced maize trade flows. However, this is having little effect on local supplies, since the normal volume of imports from the CAR is not large enough to impact markets, which should function normally throughout the outlook period.  Food demand: As usual, demand for food crops on local markets is growing as the lean season runs its course. However, demand will be above-average as there is added demand on local markets caused by the presence of refugees and returnees in spite of the deliveries of humanitarian assistance.  Rise in staple cereal prices: The price stability between July and August will be followed by a slight rise in September prices without continued deliveries of humanitarian assistance (WFP programs would not be funded after the end of August). However, prices will come down by two to three percent per month between October and December with the arrival of new harvests to local markets. Prices will peak at around 210 FCFA in September

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CHAD Food Security Outlook July to December 2014

and will bottom out at 170 FCFA in November/December. Prices will remain slightly above-average by approximately five to 15 percent throughout the outlook period.  Lower demand from Nigeria for animal products: There will likely be a below-average volume of livestock trade in l throughout the outlook period with the continuing security problems along trade routes between Chad and Nigeria.  Livestock prices: Prices for livestock will be above the five-year average, peaking (at 22,000 FCFA/sheep) in September and December as livestock herds head back up north.

Food and income of returnees and refugees from the CAR:  Income: Refugees/repatriates will engage in a variety of different income-generating activities between July and December to meet their market purchasing needs. In general, there will be average levels of income from local activities (small-scale artisanal activities, farm work, etc.) for local populations and refugees/returnees in July and August. There will also be a boost in sales of wild plant foods and firewood, generating above-normal levels of income to meet their market purchasing needs. There will be normal levels of incomes from all sources of income in the second half of the outlook period. With the main October harvest, they will scale up farming activities such as the harvesting of crops for better-off households.  Household cereal stocks: Returnees will have no cereal stocks after the end of August with the termination of WFP assistance programs. The stocks built by host populations from cereal sales at subsidized prices will be depleted towards the end of the lean season (in September) and replenished with crops from the October harvests.  Sources of food: In addition to their food supplies from humanitarian assistance programs, their main sources of food are direct market purchases (≈20 percent), wild plant foods (≈4 percent), fishing (≈1 percent), animal products (≈3 percent), and petty commerce (≈1 percent). Examples of wild plant foods include locust beans, shea nuts, locust bean flour, and tamarind. With the expected termination of assistance programs by the end of August limiting cereal access for returnees, they will be highly reliant on wild plant foods. Harvests of early crops, plus crops from the subsequent main harvest, will allow those returnees who have received land grants to, at least in part, live off their household crop production through December, though with large food consumption deficits. However, they do not have enough land to grow as many crops as host populations and those crops they do grow will not meet all their needs.

Most likely food security outcomes Refugees and returnees will continue to receive assistance from the WFP and other humanitarian organizations between July and August. This assistance and local income-generation will enable them to fully meet their food needs. Thus, they will continue to experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1!) food insecurity through the end of August. The food security situation of host populations will improve with July harvests of early crops, enabling them to meet their food needs. These households are also currently experiencing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity.

Beginning in September near the end of the lean season, returnees will begin to encounter problems with food insecurity with the possible disruption of the WFP food pipeline, poor food availability at the household-level, and their heavy dependence on market purchasing. Households will boost their sales of firewood and wild plant foods during this period to help strengthen their purchasing power, but will still have difficulty meeting their food and nonfood needs. Thus, they will have limited food access and face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food security outcomes between October and December. There will be no change in the food security situation of host populations, who will continue to experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity through the end of December.

The refugee population of any department does not currently meet the required threshold of 20 percent of the total population for determining an area’s IPC classification, except in Grande Sido (Moyen Chari). Thus, all southern areas of the country are classified in the Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity with the exception of Grande Sido, where food insecurity will be classified as Minimal (IPC Phase 1) only due to the impact of current humanitarian assistance between now and August and as Stressed (IPC Phase 2) between September and December.

Wadi Fira (Biltine)

Cereal production for the 2013/2014 growing season in the Wadi Fira region is estimated at 49,147 metric tons, which is 49 percent below the five-year average. Peanut and sesame production in this region are also below the five-year average by

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CHAD Food Security Outlook July to December 2014

50 percent and 83 percent, respectively. As a result, food stocks depleted earlier than usual, income levels have been below-average, and there has been poor pastoral conditions due to a shortage of pasture.

Households will continue to have problems with food insecurity between July and September on account of their depleted cereal stocks and longer than usual dependence on market purchasing this year, extending over several months. Moreover, poor households do not have large enough incomes with which to purchase food on the market for so many months. The atypically high prices of cereals (260 FCFA/kg of millet in Biltine in June 2014, compared with 210 FCFA in June 2013 and the five-year average of 220 FCFA) and lower prices of livestock (27,000 FCFA for an average sheep in Biltine in June 2014, compared with 30,000 FCFA in June 2013 and the five-year average of 33,200 FCFA) during this period will sharply curtail the cereal access of very poor and poor households and prevent them from meeting their basic needs. Though humanitarian assistance will help prevent a further deterioration in the food security situation of poor households, they will continue to face food consumption deficits and, thus, will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3!) through September, until just before the upcoming October harvests.

There will be an improvement in household food and income sources between October and December. Crop production levels will be average and there will be adequate availability of pasture and water for livestock, leading to return migration by pastoralists back north to Wadi Fira and improved milk consumption. As a result, there will be an improvement in the food security situation beginning in September, with current Crisis (IPC Phase 3!) food insecurity improving to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) levels.

EVENTS THAT COULD CHANGE THE OUTLOOK

Table 1. Possible events over the next six months that could change the most likely scenario Area Event Impact on food security conditions National Earlier than usual end of the rains or below- A shorter than usual rainy season or below-average average or poorly distributed rainfall rainfall will result in large shortfalls in income from farm labor and crop sales and below-average household food stocks. Southern Large increase in the size of the refugee/returnee This will increase demand for food, drive up food part of the population with the new flare up of conflict in the prices, and curtail food access. Even with the country CAR different assistance programs, poor households will be unable to meet their food needs and their food security situation will rapidly deteriorate.

ABOUT SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT To project food security outcomes over a six-month period, FEWS NET develops a set of assumptions about likely events, their effects, and the probable responses of various actors. FEWS NET analyzes these assumptions in the context of current conditions and local livelihoods to develop scenarios predicting food security outcomes. Typically, FEWS NET reports the most likely scenario. Learn more here.

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