Gardner on Induction Voodoo in New Orleans • 10th European Skeptics Congress THE MAGAZINE FOR , AND REASON Volume 26, No. 1 • January/Febnaai Debunks //_

Myths of Murder and Multiple Regression rymos, lawns- S

A University's Struggle with

Education, Scientific j Knowledge, and

Three Skeptics' Debate Tools PHFtENQUX

Geology Curriculum Confronts Creationism

SPECIAL REPORT: Disney Finds Atlantis Atlantis Behind the Myth

Published by the Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Pa THE COMMITTEE FOR THE SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATION OF CLAIMS OF THE PARANORMAL AT THE -INTERNATIONAl (ADJACENT TO THE STATE UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK AT BUFFALO) • AN INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION , Chairman; professor emeritus of philosophy, State University of New York at Buffalo , Executive Director Joe Nicked. Research Fellow , Research Fellow Richard Wiseman, Research Fellow Lee Nisbet. Special Projects Director FELLOWS

James E. Alcock,* psychologist, York Univ., Susan Haack, Cooper Senior Scholar in Arts Loren Pankratz, psychologist Oregon Health Toronto and , prof, of philosophy. University Sciences Univ. , magician and inventor, Albany, of Miami John Paulos, mathematician. Temple Univ. Oregon C E. M. Hansel, psychologist, Univ. of Wales Steven Pinker, cognitive scientist, MIT Marcia Angell. M.D., former editor-in-chief. Al Hibbs, scientist. Jet Propulsion Laboratory Massimo Polidoro, science writer, author, Douglas Hofstadter. professor of human under­ New England Journal of executive director CICAP Italy Robert A. Baker, psychologist. Univ. of standing and cognitive science, Indiana Univ. Rosenberg, psychologist, Univ. of Kentucky Gerald Holton, Mallinckrodt Professor of Chicago M.D., psychiatrist, author, Physics and professor of history of science, Wallace Sampson, M.D., clinical professor of consumer advocate, Allentown, Pa. Harvard Univ. medicine, Stanford Univ., editor. Scientific ,* biopsychologist. Simon ,* psychologist, Univ. of Oregon Fraser Univ., Vancouver, B.C., Leon Jaroff, sciences editor emeritus, 77me Review of Irving Biederman, psychologist, Univ. of Sergei Kapitza, former editor, Russian edition, Amardeo Sarma, engineer, head of dept. Southern California at T-Nova Deutsche Telekom, executive Susan Blackmore, psychologist. Univ. of the Philip J. Klass.* aerospace writer, engineer director, GWUP, Germany. West of England, Bristol Edwin C Krupp, astronomer, director, Griffith Evry Schatzman, former president. French Henri Broch, physicist, Univ. of Nice, France Observatory Physics Association Jan Harold Brunvand, folklorist, professor Paul Kurtz,* ciairman. CSICOP Eugenie Scott physical anthropologist, execu­ emeritus of English, Univ. of Utah Lawrence Kusche, science writer tive director, National Center for Science Vern Bullough, professor of history. California Leon Lederman, emeritus director, ; Education State Univ. at Northridge Nobel laureate in physics Thomas A. Sebeok, anthropologist, Mario Bungs, philosopher, McGill University , psychologist, Emory Univ. linguist, Indiana Univ. John R, Cole, anthropologist, editor, National Lin Zixin, former editor. Science and , science writer Center for Technology Daily (China) Elie A. Shneour, biochemist, author, Frederick Crews, literary and cultural critic, Jere Lipps, Museum of Paleontology, Univ. of professor emeritus of English, Univ. of director, Biosystems Research Institute. California, Berkeley California. Berkeley La Jolla. Calif. , professor of , F. H. C. Crick, biophysicist, Salk Inst, for Dick Smith, film producer, publisher, Terrey Univ. of Washington Biological Studies. La Jolla. Calif; Nobel Prize Hills, N.S.W., Australia Paul MacCready, scientist/engineer, laureate Robert Steiner, magician, author, AeroVironment. Inc., Monrovia. Calif. . zoologist. Oxford Univ. El Cerrito. Calif. John Maddox, editor emeritus of Nature Cornells de Jager, professor of astrophysics. Jill Cornell Tarter, astronomer, SETI Institute. Marks, psychologist City University. . Univ. of Utrecht, the Netherlands Mountain View, Calif. Walter C. McCrone, microscopist, McCrone Paul Edwards, philosopher, editor. Carol Tavris, psychologist and author, Los Research Institute Encyclopedia of Philosophy Angeles. Calif. Mario Mendez-Acosta. journalist and , professor of , David Thomas, physicist and mathematician, Central Connecticut State Univ. science writer, Mexico City, Mexico Peralta, New Mexico Antony Flew, philosopher, Reading Univ., U.K. Marvin Minsky, professor of media arts and Stephen Toulmin, professor of philosophy, Andrew Fraknoi, astronomer. Foothill College, sciences, M.IT. Univ. of Southern California Los Altos Hills, Calif. David Morrison, space scientist, NASA Ames Neil deGrasse Tyson, astrophysicist and direc­ ,* science writer, editor, Research Center tor, Hayden Planetarium, SKEPTKAI INQUIRER Richard A. Muller, professor of physics. Univ. Yves Galifret, vice-president, Affiliated of Calif.. Berkeley Marilyn vos Savant Parade magazine con­ Organizations: France H. Narasimhaiah. physicist, president. tributing editor and CBS News correspondent . * author, critic Bangalore Science Forum, India Steven Weinberg, professor of physics and Murray Gell-Mann, professor of physics, Santa Dorothy Nelkin, sociologist, New York Univ. astronomy, Univ. of Texas at Austin; Nobel Fe Institute; Nobel Prize laureate , • senior research fellow, CSICOP Prize laureate Lee Nisbet* philosopher, Medaille College . psychologist. Cornell Univ. Richard Wiseman, psychologist University of Bill Nye, science educator and television host, Henry Gordon, magician, columnist. Toronto Hertfordshire , Museum of Comparative Nye Labs Marvin Zelen, statistician, Harvard Univ. Zoology. Harvard Univ. James E. Oberg, science writer Saul Green, PhD, biochemist, president of ZOL Irmgard Oepen, professor of medicine * Member, CSICOP Executive Council Consultants, New York, NY (retired), Marburg, Germany (Affiliations given for identification only.)

• • • Visit the CSICOP Web site at http://www.csicop.org • • •

The SKEJPTKAJ INQUIRER (ISSN 0194-6730) is published bimonthly by ihc Committee for the Articles, reports, reviews, and letter* published in the SKEPTICAI INQUIRER represent the Scientific Invrcstigation of Claims of the Paranormal. 1310 Sweet Home Rd.. Amhcnt. NY views and work of individual authors. Their publication does not necessarily constitute an 14228. Primed in VSA. Periodicals postage paid at Buffalo. NY. Subscription prices: one year endorsement by CSICOP or its members unless so stated. (six issues). $35; two years, $58: three years, $81; single issue. $4-95. Canadian and foreign orders: (Copyright ©2002 by the Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of die Payment in U.S. hinds drawn IMI a U.S. bank must accompany orders; please add US$10 per year Paranormal. All rights reserved. The SKEPTICAI IN-QUIREK is available on 16mm microfilm. for shipping. Canadian and foreign customers are encouraged to use Visa or MasterCard. 35mm microfilm, and 105mm microfiche from University Microfilms International and is Inquiries from the media and the public about the work of the (Committee should be made indexed in the Reader's Guide to Periodical Literature. to Paul Kurtz, Chairman. CSICOP. Box 703. Amhera. NY 14226-0703. Td.: 716-636-1425. Subscriptions and changes of address should be addressed to: SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. Box FAX: 716-636-1733. 703. Amherst. NY 14226-0703- Or call toll-free 1-800-634-1610 (outside U.S. call 716-636- Manuscripts, letters, books for review, and editorial inquiries should be addressed to Kendrick 1425). Old address as well as new are necessary for change of subscriber's address, with six Frazier. Editor. SKEPTICAL INQUIRHR. 944 Deer Drive NE. Albuquert|uc. NM 87122. Fax 505- weeks advance notice. SKEPTICAL INQUIRER subscribers may not speak on behalf of CSICOP 828-2080. Before submitting any manuscript, please consult our Guide for Authors for tormat or die SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. and references requirements. It is on our Web site at h tip://www.csicop.org/ Postmaster Send changes of address to SKEPTICAI INQUIRER. Box 703, Amhcnt. NY si/guide-for-authors.html. Or you may send a fax request to the editor. 14226-0703- Skeptical Inquirer COLUMNS EDITOR'S NOTE 4 January/February 2002 • VOL. 26, NO. 1 NEWS AND COMMENT Teaching May Enter Universities in India / Poptronics' ARTICLES Readers Say Thumbs Down' to / What's New? 19 Myths of Murder and Four More Reports from the Weird Science Front / John Multiple Regression Edward's Televised Tragedy Seance Scrapped 5 Econometric modeling has failed as a method of resolving CONFERENCE REPORT controversies about issues such as gun control, capital 10th European Skeptics Congress: Rise and Development of punishment, and homicide rates. The continued use of Paranormal Beliefs in Eastern models that have no demonstrated predictive ability is a MARTIN MAHNER 8 form of . TED GOERTZEL NOTES OF A FRINGE-WATCHER Some Thoughts About Induction 24 Education, Scientific Knowledge, MARTIN GARDNER 12 and Belief in the Paranormal INVESTIGATIVE FILES Education may not be the antidote to paranormal thinking Voodoo in New Orleans that some observers imagine. Even scientific knowledge and scientific reasoning correlate inconsistently with paranor- JOE NICKELL 15 malism. Here's a netv look at the relationship between these two seemingly contradictory dimensions. NEW BOOKS 51

ERICH GOODE SCIENCE BEST SELLERS 51 28 A University's Struggle FORUM With Chiropractic ' Confronts Creationism': An Undergraduate Science Curriculum York University recently rejected a merger with a chiroprac­ MARK A. WILSON 52 tic college- The deliberation process leading up to this deci­ Explaining the Cheese sion illustrates how susceptible universities can be to over­ RALPH ESTLING 54 tures by colleges of alternative medicine. Lessons learned from this situation may prove helpful for institutions facing SI: In Need of a similar temptations in the future. ALAN MILLER 55 MICHAEL De ROBERTIS FOLLOW-UP 33 Snaring the Fowler: Mark Twain Alternative Veterinary Medical Treatments: A Misrepresentation? Debunks Phrenology KAREN R. MUNANA 57 In the 1870s Mark Twain performed a single-blind reliability test on the analysis technique of Lorenzo Niles Robert A. Imrie Responds Fowler, one of the eminent phrenologists of the day ROBERT A. IMRIE 57 DELANO JOSE LOPEZ READERS FORUM ON SCIENCE AND RELIGION 2001 59

37 Three Skeptics' Debate LETTERS TO THE EDITOR 68 Tools Examined Occam's razor, assigning burden of proof, and Sagan's BOOK REVIEWS phrase about extraordinary claims are often misunderstood. In a debate it always pays to know why these tools work. The Psychology of the Psychic ALVARO CASO By David Marks JAMES E. ALCOCK .46

SPECIAL REPORT How To Make A Paranoid Laugh: Or, What is Psychoanalysis? By Francois Rousrang 42 Mickey Mouse Discovers PETER LAMAL 48 the 'Real' Atlantis From the Wandering Jew to William F. Buckley, jr. PAUL S. HARDERSEN By Martin Gardner 44 Atlantis Behind the Myth: MARK DURM 49 No Way, No How, No Where Nibbling on Einstein's Brain: KEVIN CHRISTOPHER The Good, the Bad and the Bogus in Science On the cover: Portrait of Mark Twain, ©Corbis. By Diane Swanson Phrenology head photo by Tom Flynn. 50 EDITOR'S NOTE Skeptical Inquirer THE MAGAZINE FOR SCIENCE AND REASON

EDITOR Exploiting Human Tragedy, and the Kendrick Frazier EDITORIAL BOARD James E. Alcock New No-Nonsense Barry Beyerstein Thomas Casten ur November/December 2001 issue, with Joe Nickell's column "John Martin Gardner Edward: Hustling the Bereaved" and other pieces skewering modern Ray Hyman O Lawrence Jones claims of "talking to the dead," had hardly been out three days when the Philip J. Klass inevitable happened. In this space in that issue, after discussing the September Paul Kurtz Joe Nickell 11 terrorist attacks, 1 commented: "It may be awhile before the entertainment Lee Nisbet media get back to their old topics with the same force. But you can bet they Amardeo Sarma Bela Scheiber will." My first example was the "paranormal bunk" of "medium" . Eugenie Scott So we can be disgusted but hardly surprised that on October 25 Edward's CONSULTING EDITORS television producers announced that they had scheduled a Crossing Over show Robert A. Baker Susan J. Blackmore in which Edward would supposedly contact some of the nearly 5,000 people John R. Cole who died in the World Trade Center tragedy. The depravity of such exploita­ Kenneth L. Feder tion was lost on his coterie but not on the public. By the end of the same day, C. E. M. Hansel E. C. Krupp the negative reaction had been so quick and forceful the decision was reversed Scott O. Lilienfeld (see News & Comment, this issue). For a while, at least, reason and common David F. Marks James E. Oberg sense prevailed. I wonder for how long? Robert Sheaffer David E. Thomas * * * Richard Wiseman The utter bankruptcy and banality of any claims to psychic abilities was made MANAGING EDITOR Benjamin Radford painfully obvious by the September 11 tragedies. What an opportunity for any­ ART DIRECTOR one who really had to have performed an unprecedented public ser­ Lisa A. Hutter vice: warn the authorities in advance with clear and specific information about PRODUCTION Paul Loynes the airliner hijackings and resulting mass murders so that the attacks could have Jason Mussachio been prevented. Obviously no one did. To all but committed believers, the con­ CARTOONIST clusion is clear: Such abilities, unfortunately in this case, do not exist. Bryan Rob Pudim Farha, a professor of education at Oklahoma City University and member of WEB PAGE DESIGNER Patrick Fitzgerald CSICOP's astrology subcommittee, wrote me to propose we run a Forum col­ umn with this introduction: "Following are detailed summaries of documented PUBLISHER'S REPRESENTATIVE Barry Karr psychic predictions—to this author's knowledge—regarding the September 11, CORPORATE COUNSEL 2001, terrorist attacks on America:" That would be followed by a blank page. Brenton N. VerPloeg BUSINESS MANAGER You can bet, however, that when come out with their annual year- Sandra Lesniak end predictions, just about the time you receive this issue, some of them will FISCAL OFFICER somehow pretend they predicted the whole thing. It'll be interesting to see Paul Paulin their rationalizations for why they forgot to mention this before September 11. CHIEF DEVELOPMENT OFFICER Arthur Urrows * * * DEVELOPMENT OFFICER James Kimberly Another thing has been made clear since the attacks. Pseudomedical nonsense CHIEF DATA OFFICER is not going to get quite the free ride it has for so long. When the anthrax mail Michael Cione attacks came, people turned to real medicine, not unfounded remedies. As Bob STAFF Darlene Banks Park of the American Physical Society put it in his "What's New" electronic Patricia Beauchamp newsletter: "Fortunately those exposed to anthrax are being diagnosed and Jodi Chapman treated with the very latest scientific medicine. They are not being treated with Allison Cossitt Jennifer Miller , , touch therapy, magnets, , crystals, chela­ Matthew Nisbet tion, , echinacea, , or yohimbe bark. And no Heidi Ranjit Sandhu one is complaining." Anthony Santa Lucia The September 11 attacks may begin to usher in a new era of no-nonsense. John Sullivan People know they have no choice but to confront the real world directly, on Vance Vigrass PUBLIC RELATIONS DIRECTOR its own terms. There is no escape into a trivial, pretend world of nonexistent Kevin Christopher woo-woo. INQUIRY MEDIA PRODUCTIONS Thomas Flynn DIRECTOR OF LIBRARIES Timothy S. Binga

The SKEPTICAL INQUIRER is the official journal of the Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal, an international organization.

4 November/December 2001 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER NEWS AND COMMENT

Astrology Teaching May Enter Universities in India

PRASENJIT MAITI shift from a secular worldview (that fraudulent "god men" exercise tremen­ underpins the country's multicultural dous clout in national affairs. India's University Grants Commission pluralist lineage) to a dogmatic, if not The UGC, however, is a class apart. (UGC) has recommended teaching of distorted, rendering of events that uni­ It occasionally comes out with decisions astrology and ancient Vedic Sciences at laterally condemns the country's that defy logic. What prompted it to the undergraduate and postgraduate lev­ Muslim rulers as barbaric invaders who launch astrology in the age of the so- els. This is in keeping with the are to be held responsible for the degen­ called Digital Divide is anybody's guess. revamped UGC's striking policy resolu­ eration of India's rich Hindu heritage Prasenjit Maiti is in the Department of tions that are more often than not dic­ and genesis of her communal tension. Political Science at Burdwan University, tated by the Human Resource Develop­ The communist state governments West Bengal, India. ment (HRD) Ministry of the central do not fare any better. They would pre­ government (now being run by the fer to analyze India's national liberation Hindu "nationalist" Bharatiya Janata (decolonization) movement along lines Party-led National Democratic Alliance of traditional class dynamics, and even since 1999). occasionally claim that they have been India's HRD Minister has recently almost exclusively responsible for the sacked the Director of the Indian uplift of the Indian people from two Council of Social Science Research at hundred years of British rule. This, New Delhi when the hapless official however, is not at all consistent with refused to tow the nationalist line of the the intellectual tradition of India's Minister. The ex-Director of the Indian social praxes. Council of Historical Research even Regrettably, the Vice-Chancellor of a stalled publication of two volumes of Calcutta-based university is among the Toward Freedom that were being com­ first few academic enthusiasts who have piled by India's leading historians (to uncritically opted for astrology teaching comprehensively document India's free­ at the postgraduate level. But this is not dom struggle) whose "progressive" his­ surprising in a country that still comes toriography the Minister did approve of. across as a most intriguing array of para­ India's history textbooks are to be doxes: India's computer scientists domi­ rewritten now, and the emphasis would Poptronics' Readers nate the Silicon Valley, the country is self-reliant in food grains production, Say 'Thumbs Down' and it has made important strides since to Pseudoscience independence (1947) in areas of funda­ mental research A year or so ago Gernsback Publications like space tech­ merged their electronics hobby maga­ nology, genetic zines, Electronics Now and Popular engineering, Electronics, to form Poptronics. In the marine biology, past these magazines contained tutorial microbiology, and articles and construction projects. The % y the earth and nuclear September 2001 issue of Poptronics, r sciences. India's social scien­ however, contained an eight-page article tists and intellectuals are entitled "Radio Signals and the Great respected around the world. Pyramid." The essence of this article was Still, India has university that by coating the Great Pyramid with teachers wearing gems to invoke copper, filling the sarcophagus with sul­ auspicious stars, the fatalist Indian furic acid, and feeding radio-frequency people rely on horoscopes and astrolog­ into its passages we could con­ ical forecasts published in the leading vert the pyramid into a triode amplifier. national dailies and magazines, and This would provide a net power output and supply Cairo with electricity.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2002 S NEWS AND COMMENT

The article was written by Brenda The author's stirring conclusion newspapers, including the New York K. Bayles, a self-described writer of brings to the writings of Dennis Times and the Washington Post, carried nonfiction booklets that examine I.ee and Joe Newman: "Working with a full page ad on Sunday, September "physical science and The Theory of stone is an exciting new way to use radio 23, from the Endowment Fund for Everything." The Internet is awash skills. What could be better than a pro­ World Peace. The ad called on "the with the writings of such hopeful ama­ ject that could end up easing one's util­ world's wealthiest" to come up with $1 teurs, but it was discouraging to see a ity bills? The ultimate feat would be an billion for world peace: "There must lengthy example appear in a normally electrical grid that would take care of all be a few peace-loving billionaires who factual magazine. our energy needs, and it is a feasible can raise the money in one day." But in Much of the article consists of ill- idea." It seems the Stone Age is right view of the urgency, the ad says, if digested chemical and electronic fac­ around the corner. some deep-pocket would just advance toids; the rest is pure pyramid poppy­ 1 wrote to the editor of Poptronics to the money, the Endowment would cock. The output of literal pyramid point out that publishing this article repay the advance from donations of power is credited to the mysterious represented a major lapse in judgment little schmucks like us. So who are properties of limestone. We are told, and would mislead readers. I wasn't these people, and what are they "It is an igneous rock, created when alone. Electronics hobbyists must be as proposing to do with the money? They molten materials beneath the Earth's critical of pseudoscientific BS as are held a press conference at the National surface were pushed to the surface skeptics. In an editorial in Poptronics Press Club in Washington, D.C. The and cooled." (Limestone is in fact a November issue the editor admits that first speaker was John Hagelin, string sedimentary rock formed from the the readers' responses to this article had theorist, perpetual presidential candi­ shells of sea creatures.) Bayles assures been numerous, negative, and often date of the Natural Law Party, and fol­ us that when limestone is heated to vituperative. Some of the tamer letters lower of Maharishi Mahesh Yogi. 76 degrees Fahrenheit it becomes were printed in the same issue. As the Hagelin explained that right now an paramagnetic. She also describes it as chastened editor wrote, "Unless I hear elite corps ol 40,000 Yogic flyers is a semiconductor, apparently on the otherwise that 'stuff won't be seen in training in India to "generate a power­ grounds that galena, a totally differ­ these parts no more." ful, scientifically proven unified con­ ent mineral, was used as a rectifier in sciousness field" that will give us per­ The impact of this stirring statement early radios. manent world peace. He was followed was somewhat vitiated by the appear­ on live satellite hook-up by the The text ranges from the simply ance in the same issue of an article Maharishi himself. In a rambling, at wrong ("The Earth has moved on its describing the time travel that allegedly times incoherent speech, the axis no less than seven times throughout occurred during the 1943 "Philadelphia Maharishi warned, "President Bush history"; "Hydrochloric acid is very Experiment." I shall charitably assume doesn't know science, he's uneducated, close to sulfuric acid in composition,") that this article was already in the pro­ ignorant, and following the path of to the incomprehensible ("Calcium duction pipeline and couldn't be failure . . . the solution is with me." electrons are uninterested in electricity replaced in time. until exposed to it, at which point cal­ cium's electrons point towards the mag­ —Tom Napier : The 'science' of Yogic netic field"). flying. It's a measure of how seriously Tom Napier writes from North Wales, the current situation is taken that two Just as alchemists once pored Pennsylvania. years ago Hagelin offered to end the through the hermetic spells of their violence in Kosovo with a mere 7,000 predecessors, earnest seekers of free Yogic flyers ("What's New," April 9, energy must interpret paragraphs such 1999). He had come to Washington, as, "Electrons enter the anode room What's New? Four D.C. with his proposal and in the most ('King's Chamber'). Signal reflection More Reports from the bizarre press conference in the history has continued through the core stone Weird Science Front of the Press Club, he actually gave a to the anode room. Electron flow has demonstration of Yogic flying. Mat­ mostly followed the grid, but overlap­ Here are a some recent items from the tresses were spread right there on the ping radio signals still energize the core American Physical Society's "What's floor, and twelve fit-looking young guys stones between Battery A and the News" electronic newsletter, by Robert seated themselves in the lotus position. anode room where a vat ('the sarcopha­ L. Park: The audience was cautioned to make gus') of acid awaits." Alas, free energy no sound as tfiey meditated. remains as elusive as the recipe for World Peace: If you can't donate turning lead into gold. $1 billion, how about a loan? Major After a few minutes, one of them

6 January/February 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER NEWS AND COMMENT suddenly levitated. Well, he didn't series of stances in which he would exactly float, mind you, just sort of supposedly contact those who died in popped up a couple of inches and the attacks. Steve Rosenberg, president thumped back down. Then another lev­ of domestic television for Studios USA itated, and another, till the scene looked (the producer of Edward's show), had like corn popping. There was nothing to tentatively scheduled the programs to suggest they didn't follow parabolic tra­ air during the November sweeps jectories. My guess is they were suddenly period, when audience numbers are of contracting their gluteus maximus. It paramount importance. Huge ratings must be hard work. They were soon during that time translate into big panting heavily. profits for Edward and Crossing Over. Plans for the show were made public on October 25, 2001, in a report on the Web site of Broadcasting and Cable mag­ from the procedure as those who don't. azine. Objections sprouted up immedi­ It was intercessory prayer, with ately from advertisers, USA Networks prospective mothers in Korea, unaware Inc. (the parent company of Studios they were prayees, while the prayers USA), and some members of the public were women in the U.S., Canada, and who had heard about the story. At the Australia who did not know the Committee for the Scientific Inves­ Alternative Medicine: So why not women they were praying for. The tigation of Claims of the Paranormal just make it mainstream? Any physi­ researchers were at Columbia, and also (publisher of the SKEN1CAL INQUIRER), cian entering practice today must deal knew nothing. Science Daily magazine Executive Director Barry Karr received with patients who use alternative ther­ called the results "surprising," but that's over 100 e-mails from stunned and out­ apies. Would it not make sense, there­ much too timid. We can now expect raged skeptics who had learned of the fore, for medical schools to educate studies on what sort of prayers are most story from the CSICOP announcement doctors about unconventional thera­ effective and to which god they should be directed, followed by lawsuits list. Many wrote angry letters to the Sci- pies that their patients may already use? against anyone who prays for pregnan­ Fi Channel and Studios USA complain­ 's medical cies that turn out badly. ing of tastelessncss and exploitation. school is the first in the nation to announce it will integrate information Several stations and networks, —Robert Park about such therapies into the curricu­ including WCBS in New York and the lum, but scientists are troubled. By def­ Robert Park is author o/ . Sci-Fi Channel, reportedly refused to inition, these therapies are scientifically carry the broadcasts capitalizing on the unproven; if they are proven, they cease tragedy. According to Joe Flint of The to be alternative. The standard of proof John Edward's Wall Street Journal, Rosenberg initially used by proponents, however, is often ignored the "unexpected" criticism, say­ lax. James Gordon, chair of the White Televised Tragedy ing that the shows would go ahead House Commission on Comple­ Seance Scrapped regardless of the outcry. mentary and Alternative Medicine, But opposition to the show—and the directs the Center for Mind-Body In the wake of the September 11 terror­ public relations disaster that loomed Medicine at Georgetown. Is there a ist attack, many people have tried to because of it—finally became too much. mind-body effect? Sure there is. I exploit the tragedy for personal and Later that same day Rosenberg back­ doubt if Gordon can increase women's financial gain. Within days, firms began tracked, announcing that the shows breast size by hypnotism, as he claims heavily marketing everything from gas would not be broadcast after all because in his book. The New Medicine, but masks and antibiotics to flags and guns, it might make viewers uncomfortable. just reading the book made me physi­ using the hysteria and fear to turn a Edward will have to settle for less pub­ cally ill. profit. While encouraging Americans to licity and money when he does his per­ buy flags and new cars profits from formance for those left grieving, in pri­ Alternative Pregnancy: You better patriotism, others try to profit from vate and off the air. pray this study is wrong. A study of grief and loss. —Benjamin Radford in-vitro fertilization finds that women Medium John Edward, star of the who have people praying for them are syndicated show Crossing Uver with Benjamin Radford is Managing Editor of twice as likely to become pregnant John Edward, had planned to air a the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/february 2002 7 CONFERENCE REPORT

10th European Skeptics Congress: Rise and Development of Paranormal Beliefs in Eastern Europe

MARTIN MAHNER

keptics from sixteen countries as well as talks on the UFO phenome­ research was fine when sufficiently dis­ gathered at the Czech Academy of non, the role of Rupert Sheldrake's guised or cloaked in Marxist terms, or SSciences in Prague September 7-9, alleged morphogenetic fields in crystal when reference could be made to 2001, to attend the 10th European formation, the scandal around the Russian scientists engaging in such Skeptics Congress. This congress of the French astrologer Elisabeth Teissier research. Thus, was European Council of Skeptical (who recently got a Ph.D. in sociology called "psychotronics," and Kirlian Organizations (ECSO), which unites from the reputable Sorbonne univer­ photography was after all supported by and represents skeptical organizations sity), and many, many more. the Soviets. from fourteen European countries, was Although it is true and well known The situation was similar in the for­ organized by the Czech skeptics. that a wave of paranormal belief systems mer Soviet Union, where there had also The conference was devoted to swept into the Eastern European coun­ been a long tradition of parapsychologi­ examining the rise and development of tries after the breakdown of their com­ cal research, as Professor Eduard munist regimes, it is also true, though Kruglyakov from the Budker Institute of Nuclear Physics told the audience. Another prominent field had been In Bulgaria, people were driven into the pscudophysics, such as research on anti- gravitation. Nevertheless, the big "out­ hands of alternative healers not so much burst of the paranormal" occurred only by gullibility as by the capitalist overhaul after 1989—and it was sometimes sup­ ported by high representatives of the of the country's health system. government, in particular the former president Boris Yeltsin, who relied on astrology among other dubious things. the paranormal scene, and especially lesser known, that many paranormal Kruglyakov was happy to report that alternative medicine, in the Eastern belief systems had been present before, in back in 1998 the Russian Academy of European countries since the downfall some cases even enjoying state support. Sciences established a twelve-person of the communist regimes. The status of In the Czech Republic, for example, committee devoted to fighting pseudo- alternative medicine in some Western there had existed a long tradition of science. The committee has shown early European countries, such as Germany parapsychological research, as Professor successes. Astrological columns have and the Netherlands, was also explored, Vojtech Mornstein from the bio­ disappeared from some newspapers, for physics department of Brno University example, and other papers have rein­ Martin Maimer is Executive Director of reported. Although the official "scien­ stalled a science section. the Center for Inquiry-Europe in Rossdorf, tific" Marxist doctrine did not allow for As for alternative medicine, Professor Germany. mysticism and parapsychology, such Jiri Hert from the department of

S lanuaty/February 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER of Plzen University explained National Academies of Sciences and mies of science. This is an encouraging that acupuncture, magnetic therapy, and Humanities, representing thirty-eight sign that in the future the skeptical had been in use in the academies from Europe as well as movement may expect more support Czech Republic before 1989. After Turkey and the . Drenth by leading scientific organizations. 1989, the main Western imports Although the were homeopathy and cluster is lucky to count quite a number medicine. By contrast, chiroprac­ of outstanding scientists among tic and their members and supporters, play no important role, although too many scientists are still reluc­ an increased tolerance of the use of tant to join in, usually believing mistletoe extract in oncology that it is a waste of time to departments can be observed, as deal with pseudoscience. This Dr. Leme deplored. As anthropo­ may even be true from a narrow sophic medicine is perhaps most research point of view, but widespread in Germany, it was of certainly not from the wider particular interest to learn from perspective of educational and Dr. Barbara Burkhard that there societal responsibility. now are studies indicating that CSICOP Executive Director Barry Karr talks with fellow skeptics during Finally, some important results the use of mistletoe extracts in conference break. Photos from http://universum. 150m.com/esc2001/. of the ECSO board meeting, fact accelerates tumor growth which always takes place at thc in patients with lymph node occasion of the European confer­ metastases, and moreover leads to ences, should be mentioned. The a significant increase in brain long-time chairman of ECSO, metastases and a decrease in over­ Professor Cornelis de Jager, asked all survival time. to be replaced by a younger per­ The situation in Bulgaria was son, for, being in his eightieth year, described by Professor Tchoudomir he wishes to reduce his workload. Nachev, president of the Bulgarian Thus Amardeo Sarma (Germany) National Academy of Medicine. In was unanimously elected as the Bulgaria, people were driven into new chairman; so was Professor the hands of alternative healers not Jiri Grygar (Czech Republic) as so much by gullibility as by the cap­ vice-chairman. Further board italist overhaul of the country's Jan Willem Nienhuys of the Netherlands addresses the conference members are Tim Trachet (Bel­ health system. Thus, normal sci­ as Amardeo Sarma moderates the panel. gium), Massimo Polidoro (Italy), ence-based health care as well as Michael Heap (U.K.), and most drugs simply could no longer Cornelis de Jager (Netherlands). be afforded by many people. No The Center for Inquiry-Europe in surprise, then, that alternative prac­ Rossdorf (Germany) will hence­ titioners were able to thrive by forth take over the general admin­ opening offices and clinics all over istrative and financial business of the country offering affordable and, ECSO. A new directory of thc truly in the two senses of the expres­ European Council of Skeptical sion, "alternative" health care. Organizations will be published by Thc European skeptics were the Center in early 2002. especially pleased that the confer­ After this successful and well- ence was hosted by the Czech organized conference in the pic­ Academy of Sciences, and that turesque city of Prague, the partic­ among the participants there Left to right: Jiri Grygar [Czech Republic). Amardeo Sarma ipants now look forward to the (Germany), Monique Wonner (France), and Jan Zahradil (Czech were representatives from various Republic) participate on a conference panel. next European skeptics congress, scientific academies. One of the which will be organized by ASKE speakers was Professor Pieter Drenth, informed ECSO that concern about (Association for Skeptical Enquiry, the president of ALLEA (All European the rise and spread of pseudoscience U.K.) and held in London from Academies), which is thc Federation of has finally reached the various acade­ September 5-7, 2003. •

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2002 9

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CENTER FOR INQUIRY - WEST Regional Headquarter* and National Media Center A joint project of the Center for Inquiry™, the Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal, and the Council for Secular Humanism, each a 501(c)(3) tax-exempt educational corporation P.O. Box 741 • Amherst NY 14226-0741 • (716) 636-4869 ext. 311 • FAX (716) 636-1733 NOTES OF A FRINGE-WATCHER MARTIN GARDNER

Some Thoughts About Induction

Ask a scientist what he conceives degree that physicists refer to it as a fact. the "universe" consists of just two shoe the to be, and What was once Darwin's theory of evo­ boxes on a shelf so high that one can he will adopt an expression that is lution is now regarded as a fact by every­ reach into each box but not see into it. at once solemn and shifty-eyed: body except religious fundamentalists. A "scientist" is told only that box A con­ solemn, because he feels he ought Induction operates in two ways. It tains six cubes, and box B contains six to declare an opinion; shifty-eyed, either advances a conjecture by what are red objects. because he is wondering how to called confirming instances, or it falsifies The scientist reaches into box A and conceal the fact that he has no a conjecture by contrary or disaffirm­ removes one cube at a time. Each time opinion to declare. ing evidence. A common example is the he gets a black cube it confirms the hypothesis that all crows are black. Each assertion that all six cubes are black. —Sir Peter Brian Medawar, in time a new crow is observed and found After he has seen all six has the conjec­ Induction and in to be black the conjecture is increasingly ture been verified? No, because box B Scientific Thought (1969) confirmed. But if a crow is found to be may contain a red cube. So, the scien­ not black the conjecture is falsified. tist takes out red objects, one by one. nduction" has several meanings. You might suppose that the term Each time it is seen not to be a cube it Here I shall confine it to the "confirming instance" can be precisely surely confirms the statement "No not- "I, process by which science, on defined. Although in most cases it is eas­ black object is a cube," and therefore the basis of intuitive hunches followed ily recognized there are many cases also confirms the statement that all six by , arrives at laws where the term becomes extremely cubes are black. and theories about how the universe fuzzy. The most notorious example, However, in the world of real crows operates. Unlike mathematical and logi­ known as Hempel's paradox, was discov­ the number of not-black objects is close cal deduction, it is never absolutely cer­ ered by the German philosopher Carl to infinity. Nevertheless, Hempel tain, but when the evidence is over­ Gustav Hempel. It goes like this: The argued, the observation of a blue vase or whelming, a law or theory is often called statement "All crows are black" is logi­ a red apple does indeed confirm "All a fact. For example, the constancy of the cally equivalent to "No not-black object crows are black," but only to an infini­ speed of light regardless of die observer's is a crow." This seems to allow an tesimal degree. Other philosophers of motion was originally a cornerstone of ornithologist to do research in his living science disagree. They maintain that see­ Einstein's special theory of relativity. It room. He observes, say, a blue vase and ing a blue vase adds nothing to the evi­ has now been verified to such a high notes it is not a crow. This clearly is a dence that all crows are black. The confirming instance of "No not-black debate is still the topic of academic Martin Gardners Litest book, Martin object is a crow." But if it confirms that papers. If you care to look into this far- Gardner's Favorite Poetic Parodies, was statement, does it not also confirm the from-settled controversy you will find a published in October by Prometheus logically equivalent statement not all lengthy bibliography on pages 191-194 Books. The most recent collection of his crows are black? of my Hexaflexagons and Other SKEPTICAL INQUIRER columns (and other The answer is clearly yes if we limit Mathematical Diversions (1988). material) is Did Adam and Eve Have our universe to a small set of black and Hempel's paradox is not the only Navels? (WW Norton. 2000). non-black objects. For example, suppose example of how fuzzy the term

12 January/February 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER "confirming instance" can be. I will give hope. His last major work, Human what checkmates and stalemates are. only one more instance. (For others, see Knowledge, Its Scope and Limits (1948), The main point of the chess analogy Wesley Salmon's admirable article, reached the same conclusion as Hume is that induction works only on uni­ "Confirmation," in Scientific American, and Mill. Here is how he summarized verses that are uniformly patterned. May 1973.) Consider the conjecture "A the book in his introduction: The chess universe is very tiny, person can grow to fifteen feet tall." Now imagine that in some remote jun­ gle a man is discovered who is fourteen- We justify induction by assuming that and-a-half feet tall. From one point of nature is uniform, but the only way we view he does not confirm the conjecture because he fails by a half a foot. On the decide it is uniform is by induction. However, other hand he can be seen as a confirm­ as Max Black and others argued, in this ing instance because if a man can grow fourteen-and-a-half feet it becomes case circular reasoning is not vicious. much more likely that he could grow another six inches. How can induction be justified? Inlerciitc Iroin a giuup of events lo restricted to an eight-by-eiglu check­ David Hume considered this question other events can only be justified if the ered square and a small number of world has certain characteristics which and concluded that induction has no are not logically necessary. So far as pieces and rules. The actual universe is logical justification. No matter how deductive logic can show, any collec­ playing a game on a far vaster scale. For many times the sun rises, there is no log­ tion of events might be the whole uni­ all we know the space-time "board" ical reason why it might not fail to "rise verse: if, then, I am ever to be able to may be infinite in both space and time, infer events, I must accept principles of tomorrow. The same applies to any inference which lie outside deductive and there could be an infinity of rules. given law of nature. For all we know, it logic. All inference from events to But without positing the uniformity of could suddenly alter. Today's philoso­ events demands some kind of inter­ nature, induction would be hopeless. phers of science all agree with Hume. connection between different occur­ E=mc both on Earth and in distant rences. Such interconnection is tradi­ But can induction be justified in some tionally asserted in the principle of galaxies. All electrons, fortunately, are non-logical way? Hans Reichenbach causality or natural law. It is implied, identical. They may be made of super- defended it by saying that the only con­ as we shall find, in whatever limited strings. If so, what are superstrings ceivable way we can learn anything validity may be assigned to induction made of? Maybe the universe is infinite bv simple enumeration. But the tradi­ about nature is by making inductions tional ways of formulating the kind of in both directions. from available evidence. This is certainly interconnection that must be postu­ A number of induction games have true, but it's not much of a justification. lated are in many ways defective, some been invented that model the process of David Hume, and later John Stuart being too stringent and some not suf­ guessing a general rule by observing part ficiently so. To discover the minimum Mill, gave what has become the most principles required to justify scientific of a pattern. One is the card game called popular justification. Induction works, inferences is one of the main purposes Eleusis, created by Robert Abbott and they said, because nature is orderly; that of this book. described in my Penrose Tiles to Trapdoor is, it is based on mathematical patterns Ciphers (1989). Another induction that arc assumed to hold throughout the Richard Feynman, on a Nova televi­ game called Patterns, played on a board, universe and not to change with time. sion interview in 1983, likened the scien­ was invented by Sidney Sackson and Once this "uniformity of nature," as tist to a man who knows nothing about described in my book Mathematical Mill called it, is granted, it becomes chess, but is allowed once every day to Circus (1979). An intriguing variant of plausible that observing part of a pattern observe for one minute a small part of a Eleusis, by mathematician Martin will justify assuming that the pattern chessboard while a game is in progress. It Kruskal, can be found in his 1962 book­ will generalize into a law. As Hume and may take him many weeks to realize that let, Delphi—A Game of Induction. many later philosophers pointed out, bishops move only along diagonals and Efforts are being made here and there to this involves circular reasoning. We jus­ rooks move only along orthorgonals. program computers to make inductions tify induction by assuming that nature is Months later he may think he knows when fed statements of evidence, but so uniform, but the only way we decide ii how all the pieces move and capture, but far they have not discovered any new is uniform is by induction. However, as then come surprises. He sees a pawn cap­ laws, though they have rediscovered Max Black and others argued, in this tured en passant, or a king and rook cas­ some old ones. case circular reasoning is not vicious. tle. A big surprise is seeing that a player In his later years Rudolf Carnap Bertrand Russell, in his early years, has two queens on the board. It could wrote a big book titled Logical thought it possible that some day a log­ take the scientist years to learn that a Foundations of Probability in which he ical basis for induction could be found. pawn on the eighth row can become a defined "degree of confirmation" as a In his later years he abandoned this queen, rook, bishop, or knight, or exactly logical relation between a conjecture

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2002 13 between two conjectures for which the The problem is more than acade­ known evidence is equal, it seems that mic. Suppose a laboratory is consider­ the simpler of the two is more likely to ing two competing theories for which be fruitful. Is this always the case? the evidence is equal. To test each the­ Alfred North Whitehead once advised, ory would involve equipment costing "Seek simplicity but distrust it." And a million dollars per theory. But how can a conjecture's simplicity be quanti­ the simplicity could be determined fied? Is thete a way to measure simplic­ is not clear, and no one knows why ity? So far no one has come close to the simpler theory is more likely to answering these questions. be true. Morley's Theorem and all relevant evidence. He believed that in the future it would be possible to construct an inductive logic based on a formal language in which an hypothesis and its evidence could be precisely stated. The degree of confir­ mation could then be expressed by a probability between one and zero, a value that would alter as the evidence > altered. Most other philosophers of sci­ Vf ence, notably Sir Karl Popper, have dis­ agreed. They think it will never be pos­ sible to quantify a degree of confirma­ tion. Of course scientists often express a degree of confirmation by giving their subjective estimate. Rival efforts to construct inductive logics have been made by other philosophers, but the efforts are primitive. Ii is worth noting that mathemati­ Note to Readers cians often discover a theorem by exper­ imenting with numbers or diagrams in a With this column, and at the age of 87, Martin Gardner has asked to way that closely resembles the way sci­ be relieved of his regular column-writing duties for the SKEPTICAL entists induce a physical law. For exam­ INQUIRER. He may continue to contribute occasional articles and ple, Frank Morley, father of the writer book reviews. Gardner, a CSICOP founding Fellow and member of Christopher Morley, was surprised one both its Executive Council and the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Editorial day to find that if he trisected the angles Board since the beginning (1976), has contributed a Notes of a of an arbitrary triangle, three intersec­ Fringe-Watcher column (originally titled Notes of Psi-Watcher) to tion points were the corners of an equi­ every issue of the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER since Summer 1983. He lateral triangle. Each time he experi­ began the column after retiring as the Scientific American's long-time mented with a different triangle he got "Mathematical Games" columnist. Gardners classic book about the same beautiful result. Eventually he pseudoscientists, Fads and in the Name of Science, was first proved what is called "Morley's theo­ published almost a half-century ago and is still available in Dover edi­ rem." The point is that ever)' time a new tions. Since then he has published numerous "sequels," including triangle produced the same little equilat­ Science: Good. Bad, and Bogus (1981) and four collections of his SI eral triangle it was a confirming instance columns (and other writings): The Neiv Age: Notes of a Fringe- of Morley's conjecture. Watcher (1988), On the Wild Side (1992), Weird Water and Fuzzy There are many other problems Logic (1996), and Did Adam and Eve Have Navels' (2000). (For more involving induction that are covered in about him read "A Mind at Play: An Interview with Martin endless books and papers. I close with Gardner," SI, /April 1998.) We cherish Martin's long and dose what seems to me the deepest of all association with SI, and hope it continues lor years to come. unanswered questions about induction. What role does simplicity play in adding to the degree of confirmation of a law or theory? Given a choice

14 January/feb.ua'y 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER INVESTIGATIVE FILES JOE NICKELL

Voodoo in New Orleans

ew Orleans has been declared whom they clung tenaciously." In Haiti sands of voodoo practitioners—soon America's most haunted city and elsewhere, there was an attempt to "New Orleans began to hear the beat of N(Klein 1999, 104), and tour strip them even of that, their "heathen" the drum" (Antippas 1988, 14). guides—following the imaginative lead beliefs being rigorously suppressed. Voodoo Queen of Anne Rice—have attempted to over­ However, the slaves "worshiped many of lay it with bogus legends of their Gods unbeknownst to the priests, Voodoo in New Orleans can scarcely be and other spine-tingling notions. But under the guise of worshipping Catholic separated from its dominant figure, perhaps the city's oldest and most pro­ saints" (Antippas 1988, 2). Marie Laveau, about whom many leg­ found occult traditions are those involv­ Voodoo's African elements include ends swirl. According to one source ing the mysterious practices of voodoo. worship of loa (supernatural entities) (Hauck 1996): During a southern speaking tour I was and the ancestral dead, together with She led voodoo dances in Congo able to set aside a few days to explore the the use of drums and dancing, during Square and sold charms and potions New Orleans museums, shops, temples, which loa may possess the faithful. from her home in the 1830s. Sixty Catholic elements include prayers such years later she was still holding cere­ and tombs that relate to this distinctive monies and looked as young as she admixture of religion and magic, com­ as the Hail Mary and the Lord's Prayer, did when she started. Her rites at St. merce and controversy. as well as baptism, making the sign of John's Bayou on the banks of Lake the cross, and the use of candles, bells, Pon[t]chartrain resembled a scene Voodoo crosses, and the images of saints. Many from hell, with bonfires, naked danc­ ing, orgies, and animal sacrifices. She Voodoo—or voudou—is the Haitian of the loa are equated with specific had a strange power over police and folk religion. It consists of various saints; for example Damballah, the judges and succeeded in saving several African magical beliefs and rites that Dahomean snake deity, is identified criminals from hanging. have become mixed with Catholic ele­ with St. Patrick who, having legendarily ments. It began with the arrival of expelled all snakes from Ireland, is fre­ Writer Charles Gandolfo (1992), slaves in the New World, most of them quently depicted stamping on snakes or author of Marie Laveau of New Orleans, from the western, "Slave Coast" area of brandishing his staff at them states: "Some believe that Marie had a Africa, notably from Dahomey, now (Bourguignon 1993). mysterious birth, in the sense that she Benin, and Nigeria. In Benin's Fon Voodoo spread from Haiti to New may have come from the spirits or as an language, vodun means "spirit," an Orleans in the wake of the Haitian slave envoy from the Saints." On the other invisible, mysterious force that can revolt (1791-1804). The refugee planta­ hand a plaque on her supposed tomb, intervene in human affairs (Hurbon tion owners fled with their slave retinues placed by the , refers to 1995, 13; Metraux 1972, 25, 359; to Louisiana where slaves had previously her as "this notorious 'voodoo queen.'" Bourguignon 1993). toiled under such repressive circum­ Who was the real Marie Laveau? She According to one writer, "The Blacks stances that their African religion "had began life as the illegitimate daughter of suffered under merciless circumstanc­ all but withered." However, oppression es—their property and their family and lessened somewhat with American rule, Joe MM/ is CSICOP's Senior Research social structures all torn to shreds; they following the Louisiana Purchase of Fellow and author of numerous investigative had nothing left—except their Gods to 1803, and—with the influx of thou­ books. His latest is Real-Life X-Files (2001).

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2002 15 merely entertainment for the curious whites" (Antippas 1988, 14-15). More "secret" rituals—including fertility ritu­ als—took place elsewhere, notably on the shore of Lake Pontchartrain. It is difficult at this remove to assess just how much of Marie's rituals was authentic voodoo practice and how much was due to her "incredible imagi­ nation and an obsession for the extreme." She staged rituals that were "simulated orgies." Men and women danced in abandonment after drinking rum and seeming to become possessed by various loos (figure 1). Seated on her throne, Marie directed the action when she was not actually participating. She kept a large snake called Le Grand Zombi that she would dance with Figure 1. Tableau, "Marie Laveau's Voodoo Dancers," in the Musee Conti wax museum. Photos by Joe Nickell. in veneration of Damballah, shaking a gourd rattle to summon that snake deity a rich Creole plantation owner, Charles In time Marie decided to seek her and repeating over and over, "Dam­ Laveaux, and his Haitian slave mistress. own fortune. Working as a hairdresser, ballah, ye-ye-ye!" Sources conflict but Marie may have which put her in contact with New been born in New Orleans in 1794. In Orleans' social elite, she soon developed Once a year Marie presided over the 1819 she wed Jacques Paris who, like a clientele to whom she dispensed ritual of St. John's Eve. It began at dusk her, was a free person of color, but she potions, gris-gris bags, voodoo dolls, on June 23 and ended at dawn on the was soon abandoned or widowed. About and other magical items. She now next day, St. John's day. Hundreds 1826, she began a second, common-law sought supremacy over her rivals, some attended, including reporters and curi­ marriage to Christophe de Glapion, fifteen "voodoo queens" in various ous onlookers, each of whom was another free person of color, with whom neighborhoods. According to a biogra­ charged a fee. Drum beating, bonfires, she would have fifteen children. pher (Gandolfo 1992, 17): animal sacrifice, and other elements— including nude women dancing seduc­ Marie was introduced to voodoo by Marie began her take-over process by various "voodoo doctors," practitioners disposing of her rival queens. . . . If tively—characterized the extended rit­ of a popularized voodoo that empha­ her rituals or gris-gris didn't work, ual. Offerings were made to the appro­ sized curative and occult magic and Marie (who was a statuesque woman, priate loos for protection, including safe­ to say the least) met them in the street guarding children and others from the seemed to have a decidedly commercial and physically beat them. This war aspect. Her own practice began when for supremacy lasted several years Cajun bogeyman, Loup-Garou, a were­ she teamed up with a "heavily tattooed until, one by one, all of the former wolf that supposedly fed on the blood of Voodoo doctor"—known variously as queens, under a pledge, agreed to be victims (Gandolfo 1992, 18-23). sub-queens. If they refused, she ran Doctor John, Bayou John, John Bayou, them out of town. Magic or Myth? etc.—who was "the first commercial Voodooist in new Orleans to whip up By age thirty-five Marie Laveau had Claims regarding Marie Laveau's alleged potions and gris-gris for a price" become New Orleans's most powerful powers persist. She represented herself as (Gandolfo 1992, 11). Gris-gris or voodoo queen—then or since. She won a seer and used fortune-telling tech­ "juju" refers to magic charms or spells, the approval of the local priest by niques such as (Gandolfo often conjuring bags containing such encouraging her followers to attend 1992, 26). There is no evidence that items as bones, herbs, charms, snake mass. While she charged the rich abun­ Marie's clairvoyant abilities were any skin, etc., tied up in a piece of cloth dantly, she reportedly gave to the needy more successful than those of any other (Antippas 1988, 16). Doctor John and administered to the suffering. Her fortuneteller. We know that people reportedly confessed to friends that his most visible activities, however, were her attest to the accuracy of a reading magic was mere humbuggery. "He had public rituals. By municipal decree because they do not understand the been known to laugh," writes Robert (from 1817) slaves were only permitted clever techniques involved, like "cold Tallant in Voodoo in New Orleans to dance publicly at a site called Congo reading." So called because it is accom­ (1946, 39), "when he told of selling a Square. "These public displays of plished without any foreknowledge, this gullible white woman a small jar of Voodoo ceremonies, however, revealed is an artful merJiod of fishing for infor­ starch and water for five dollars." nothing of the real religion and became mation from the sitter while convincing

16 ianuary/February 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER him or her rJiat it comes from a mystical the case. . . ." Therefore, of course, 1881. Her obituaries say she was then source (Hyman 1977). there is no evidence that she did ninety-eight ("Marie Lavaux" 1881; Actually, many of Marie's readings (Gandolfo 1992, 14-15; cf. Tallant "" 1881). One of the same obitu­ may not have been so "cold" after all. 1946, 58; Martinez 1956, 17-19). aries ("Dearh" 1881) states more credi­ Far from lacking prior information Legends of Marie's beneficent aspect bly that she had been twenty-five when about her clients, she reputedly used her are rivaled by those of her sinister one. A she wed, consistent with her having position as a hairdresser for gossip col­ story in this regard involves the alleged been born in 1794, as most sources now lecting, discovering "that her women hex of a New Orleans businessman, J. agree, and thus about eighty-seven when clients would talk to her about anything B. Langrast, in the 1850s. Langrast sup­ she died. Indeed, the doctor who and everything and would divulge some posedly provoked Marie's ire by publicly attended Marie at the end publicly of their most personal secrets to her" denouncing her and accusing her of stated his doubts that she was as old as (Gandolfo 1992, 12). She also reputed­ everything from robbery to murder. her family had claimed, and he judged ly "developed a chain of household Soon, gris-gris in the form of roosters' her age to be in die late eighties (Tallant informants in most of the prominent heads began to appear on his doorstep. 1946, 117). homes" (Antippas 1988, 16). As a consequence, Langrast reportedly Whatever her acrual age, far from Doubtless such intelligence gathering grew increasingly upset and eventually appearing to be a figure of eternal youth, would be helpful to a fortune-telling fled New Orleans (Nardo and Belgum Marie Laveau spent her last years "old enterprise (just as "mediumistic espi­ 1991,89-92). and shrunken," stripped of her memory, onage" was utilized by later spiritualists I have traced the Langrast story to a and lying in a back room of her cottage [Keene 1976, 27]). It could also be ben­ 1956 book of Mississippi folktales (Tallant 1946, 88, 115). In her stead eficial to a business of dispensing which describes the "businessman" as a was her daughter, Marie Laveau II. The charms, like Marie's: junk dealer and bigamist (Martinez younger Marie gradually took over her Most of her work for the ladies in­ 1956, 78-83). Such a man might have mother's business activities, which volved love predicaments. Marie various reasons for leaving town. Claims included running a house on Lake knew the personal secrets of judges, that Marie Laveau invoked a loa to curse Pontchartrain where rich Creole men priests, lawyers, doctors, ship cap­ Langrast with insanity are invalidated by could have "appointments" with young tains, architects, military officers, politicians, and most of New a complete lack of proof that he ever mulatto girls (Tallant 1946, 65-66). She Orleans's other leading citizens. She became insane. In fact his alleged flight died in 1897. used her knowledge of their indis­ could easily be attributed to simple fear, The claim that Marie Laveau was cretions and blackmailed them into the belief that "Marie Laveau's followers active in 1919 is thought to have been doing whatever she wanted. She was then financially reimbursed by her might kill him if he stayed" (Nardo and based on a third Marie, possibly a elite female clients. Most of the Belgum 1991,90-91). granddaughter (Gandolfo 1992, 29), or time, this was how her love potions another voodoo queen with whom she and gris-gris worked, which is Marie II was confused. apparently 100% of the time (Gandolfo 1992, 12). Among the most fabulous legends about In carrying on her mother's work, Marie Laveau is an often-repeated one Marie II had business cards printed, Such tactics may help explain the alleging "her perpetual youdi" (Hauck billing her not as a voodooienne but as claim, mentioned earlier, that Marie 1996). According to a segment of a "Healer." According to Tallant "had a strange power over police and "America's Haunted Houses" (1998) (1946,93): judges and succeeded in saving several which aired on the Discovery Channel, The Laveau ways of performing criminals from hanging" (Hauck 1996). Marie was "said to be over 100 years old homeopathic magic were endless. But we should beware of taking such when she died and as beautiful as ever." Sick people were often brought to the claims too seriously. When we seek to Moreover, "There were some unex­ house to receive the benefit of a cure by Marie II. A person bitten by a learn the facts, we soon realize we have plained and mysterious sightings of the snake was told to get another live entered the realm of folklore. There are. great Voodoo Queen even after her snake of any sort, cut its head off for example, rather conflicting versions death," writes Gandolfo (1992, 29). "while it was angry" and to tie this of one case, ca. 1830, in which an uni­ "People would swear on a stack head to the wound. This was to be left attached until sunrise of the following dentified young man was charged with of bibles that they saw Marie Laveau her­ day. Sometimes her practices con­ "a crime" (rape, according to one self." Indeed, he adds, "A number of peo­ tained an element of medical truth, source) and at the request of his father ple say diey were ar a ritual in the sum­ embracing the use of roots and herbs Marie performed certain rituals. mer of 1919 given by die Great Queen." that contained genuine curative elements. For sprains and swellings Supposedly the case was cither dismissed The solution to this enigma is die she used hot water containing Epsom or the young man acquitted, and Marie fact that, according to Tallant (1946, salts and rubbed the injured parts was rewarded with a cottage on Rue St. 52), there were "at least two Marie with whiskey, chanting prayers and Ann. However, as one writer concedes, Lavcaus."Thc first Marie, the subject of burning candles at the same time, of course. For other ailments she "No one is sure how Marie actually won our previous discussions, died June 15,

SKE ICAL INQUIRER January/February 2002 17 Tours also take visitors to the reputed tomb of Marie Laveau where they may hope to have a wish granted or glimpse her ghost which allegedly haunts the site. (The secrets of Marie's KM 9 tomb will be explored in a future col­ « f umn in Skeptical Briefs, where addi­ r tional "Investigative Files" also appear.) ^ ! rri 1 J r Although voodoo has declined from the early days, when Marie held New £ Aft . • Orleans under her spell, her influence 3S nevertheless continues. gr^iM , •'• .1 References * "America's Haunted Houses." 1998. Discovery Channel, First aired May 24. Antippas, A. P. 1988. A Brief History of Voodoo: Slavery & the Survival of the African Gods. New Orleans. Louisiana: Marie Laveau's House of •2& Voodoo. Bourguignon, Erika E. 1993. "Voodoo," Collier's Figure 2. Authentic "working" altar in New Or eans' Voodoo Spiritual Temple. Candles, religious Encyclopedia. New York: P F. Collier. effigies, bottles of rum (as offerings), and other elements are typical. "Death of Marie Laveau." 1881. Obituary in Daily Picayune, n.d. (after June 15), clipping administered castor oil, to the accom­ in the practices." Nevertheless, they reproduced in Gandolfo 1992, 38; text quoted paniment of incantations and prayer. are today everywhere. One can at least in full in Tallant 1946, 113-116. shun the made-in-China souvenirs for Dickinson, Joy. 1997. Haunted City: An Like other occult healers, Marie ob­ Unauthorized Guide to the Magical, Mag­ viously took advantage not only of the the local variety sold at Marie Laveau's nificent New Orleans of Anne Rice. Secaucus, occasional "element of medical truth" House of Voodoo, Rev. Zombie's New Jersey: Citadel Press, 125-132. Voodoo Shop, and the New Orleans Gandolfo, Charles. 1992. Marie Laveau of New but also other factors, including the Orleans. New Orleans, Louisiana: New body's own natural healing mechanisms Historic Voodoo Museum. The latter Orleans Historic Voodoo Museum. and the powerful effects of suggestion. attraction is well v/orth seeing for its . N.d. Museum guide sheet. New Orleans display of historic artifacts relating to Historic Voodoo Museum. Voodoo Today Gould. Virginia. 1997. "Marie Laveau," in voodoo and its practitioners, including Darlene Clark Hine, ed. Facts on File Current voodoo practice in New Marie Laveau. Encyclopedia of Black Women in America: The The museum promotes voodoo— Early Years 1617-1899. New York: Facts on Orleans is a mere shadow of what it File, 123-124. was in its heyday. Although an estimat­ including its commercial, tourist Hauck, Dennis William. 1996. Haunted Places: ed fifteen percent of the city's popula­ aspect—through various offerings, The National Directory. New York: Penguin tion supposedly still practices voodoo, including annual rituals on St. John's Books, 192. 193. Hurbon. Laennec. 1995. Voodoo: Search for the it has largely been subsumed into Eve and Halloween, and for-hire per­ Spirit. New York: Harry N. Abrams. Catholicism, which remains the domi­ formances offered as party entertain­ Hyman, Ray. 1977. Cold-reading: How to con­ nant religion. It has also been influ­ ment. Walking tours of voodoo-related vince strangers that you know all about them. SKEPTICAL iNQUIRFJt 1(2): 18-37. enced by spiritualist, wiccan, and other sites in the Vieux Carre' are also avail­ Keene, M. Lamar. 1976. The Psychic Mafia. occult and New Age beliefs (Gandolfo able daily. Reprinted Amherst, New York: Prometheus n.d.). The most visible aspects of Tour groups may routinely visit the Books, 1997. 19-38. Klein, Victor C. 1999. AW Orleans Ghosts 11. voodoo today are tours and attractions Voodoo Spiritual Temple on Rampart Metairie. Louisiana: Lycanthrope Press. in the area of the Vieux Carre (or "Old Street at the edge of the Vieux Carre". I Krohn, Diane C. 2000. Tour guide, interview by Square"), popularly called the French had enlisted a professional guide and Joe Nickell, December 3. "Marie Lavaux [sir].' 1881. Obituary in New Quarter. Laid out in 1721, it is the old­ was able to gain an audience with Orleans Democrat, June 17, reproduced in est area of the city. Priestess Miriam, perhaps today's pre­ Gandolfo 1992,37. There, souvenir shops sell that most mier voodoo queen. At the end of an Martinez, Raymond J. 1956. Mysterious Marie Laveau, Voodoo Queen, and Folk Tales Along the stereotypical of items associated with interesting visit, she waived the prohi­ Mississippi Reprinted New Orleans: Hope voodoo, the voodoo doll. Although in bition against photographs and permit­ Publications, n.d. the days of Marie Laveau one might ted me to document some of the Metraux, Alfred. 1972. Voodoo in Haiti. New York: Schocken Books. authentic voodoo altars of this religious occasionally encounter "a little wax Nardo, Don, and Erik Belgum. 1991. Great doll stuck with pins," the fact is, and cultural center (figure 2). These Mysteries: Voodoo: Opposing Viewpoints. San according to Tallant (1946, 93). are "working" altars, meaning they are Diego, California: Greenhaven Press. Tallant, Robert. 1946. Voodoo in New Orleans. "despite their frequency in fiction used in rituals and are modified to Reprinted Gretna. Louisiana: Pelican about Voodoo, dolls were rarely used invoke and propitiate various spirits. Publishing Company, 1990.

18 lanuary/February 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Myths of Murder and Multiple Regression

Econometric modeling has failed as a method of resolving controversies about issues such as gun control, capital punishment, and homicide rates. The continued use of models that have no demonstrated predictive ability is a form of junk science.

TED GOERTZEL

o you believe that every time a prisoner is executed in the United States, eight future murders are Ddeterred? Do you believe that a one percent increase in the number of citizens licensed to carry concealed weapons causes a 3.3 percent decrease in the state's murder rate? Do you believe that 10 to 20 percent of the decline in crime in the 1990s was caused by an increase in abortions in the 1970s? Or that the murder rate would have increased by 250 percent since 1974 if the United States had not built so many new prisons? If you were misled by any of these studies, you may have fallen for a pernicious form of junk science: the use of math­ ematical models with no demonstrated predictive capability

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2002 19 to draw policy conclusions. These studies are superficially statistical debate, based on computations so difficult that they impressive. Written by reputable social scientists from presti­ cannot be done with ordinary desktop computers. He chal­ gious institutions, they often appear in peer-reviewed scientific lenges anyone who disagrees with him to download his data set journals. Filled widi complex statistical calculations, they give and redo his calculations, but most social scientists do not precise numerical "facts" that can be used as debaters' points in think it worth their while to replicate studies using methods policy arguments. But these "facts" are will o' the wisps. Before that have repeatedly failed. Most gun control researchers sim­ the ink is dry on one study, another appears with completely ply brushed off Lott and Mustard's claims and went on with different "facts." Despite their scientific appearance, these their work. Two highly respected criminal justice researchers, models do not meet the fundamental criterion for a useful Frank Zimring and Gordon Hawkins (1997), wrote an article mathematical model: the ability to make predictions that are explaining that: better than random chance. just as Messrs. Lott and Mustard can, with one model of the Although are the leading practitioners of this determinants of homicide, produce statistical residuals sug­ arcane art, sociologists, criminologists, and other social scien­ gesting that 'shall issue' laws reduce homicide, we expect that tists have versions of it as well. It is known by various names, a determined econometrician can produce a treatment of the same historical periods with different models and opposite including "econometric modeling," "structural equation mod­ effects. Econometric modeling is a double-edged sword in its eling," and "path analysis." All of these are ways of using the capacity to facilitate statistical findings to warm the hearts of correlations between variables to make causal inferences. The true believers of any stripe. problem with this, as anyone who has had a course in statistics knows, is that correlation is not causation. Correlations Zimring and Hawkins were right. Within a year, two deter­ mined econometricians, Dan Black and Daniel Nagin (1998), between two variables are often spurious because they are published a study showing that if they changed the statistical caused by some third variable. Econometric modelers try to model a little bit, or applied it to different segments of the data, overcome this problem by including all the relevant variables Lott and Mustard's findings disappeared. Black and Nagin in their analyses, using a statistical technique called "multiple found that when Florida was removed from the sample there regression." If one had perfect measures of all the causal vari­ was "no detectable impact of the right-to-carry laws on the rate ables, this would work. But the data are never good enough. of murder and rape." They concluded that "inference based on Repeated efforts to use multiple regression to achieve defini­ the Lott and Mustard model is inappropriate, and their results tive answers to public policy questions have failed. cannot be used responsibly to formulate public policy." But many social scientists are reluctant to admit failure. They have devoted years to learning and teaching regression , however, disputed their analysis and continued to promote his own. Lott had collected data for each of modeling, and they continue to use regression to make causal America's 50,056 counties for each year from 1977 to 1992. arguments that are not justified by their data. I call these argu­ The problem with this is that America's counties vary tremen­ ments the myths of multiple regression, and I would like to dously in size and social characteristics. A few large ones, con­ use four studies of murder rates as examples. taining major cities, account for a very large percentage of the Myth One: More Guns, Less Crime murders in the United States. As it happens, none of these very large counties have "shall issue" gun control laws. This means John Lott, an at , used an economet­ that Lott's massive data set was simply unsuitable for his task. ric model to argue that "allowing citizens to carry concealed He had no variation in his key causal variable—"shall issue" weapons deters violent crimes, without increasing accidental laws—in the places where most murders occurred. ." Lott's analysis involved "shall issue" laws diat require local authorities to issue a concealed weapons permit to any law- He did not mention this limitation in his book or articles. abiding citizen who applies for one. Lott estimated that each When I discovered the lack of "shall issue" laws in the major one percent increase in gun ownership in a population causes a cities in my own examination of his data, I asked him about it. 3.3 percent decrease in homicide rates. Lott and his co-author He shrugged it off, saying that he had "controlled" for popu­ David Mustard posted the first version of their study on the lation size in his analysis. But introducing a statistical control Internet in 1997 and tens of thousands of people downloaded in the mathematical analysis did not make up for the fact that it. It was the subject of policy forums, newspaper columns, and he simply had no data for the major cities where the homicide often quite sophisticated debates on the World Wide Web. In a problem was most acute. book with the catchy tide More Guns, Less Crime, Lott taunted It took me some time to find this problem in his data, since his critics, accusing them of putting ideology ahead of science. I was not familiar with the gun control issue. But Zimring and Lott's work is an example of statistical one-upmanship. He Hawkins zeroed in on it immediately because they knew that has more data and a more complex analysis than anyone else "shall issue" laws were instituted in states where the National studying the topic. He demands that anyone who wants ro Rifle Association was powerful, largely in the South, the West challenge his arguments become immersed in a very complex and in rural regions. These were states that already had few restrictions on guns. They observed that this legislative history frustrates "our capacity to compare trends in 'shall issue' states Ted Goertzel is professor of sociology at Rutgers University, with trends in other states. Because the states that changed Camden, NJ 08102. E-mail- [email protected]. legislation are different in location and constitution from

20 January/february 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER the states that did not, comparisons across legislative categories will always risk confusing demographic and regional influ­ ences with the behavioral impact of different legal regimes." Zimring and Hawkins further observed that:

Lott and Mustard are, of course, aware of this problem. Their solution, a standard econometric technique, is to build a sta­ tistical model that will control for all the differences between regression modelers can achieve any result they want without Idaho and New York City that influence homicide and crime violating the rules of regression analysis in any way. In one rates, other than the "shall issue" laws. If one can "specify" the exceptionally frank statement of frustration with this state of major influences on homicide, rape, burglary, and auto theft in our model, then we can eliminate the influence of these affairs, two highly respected criminologists, Thomas Marvell factors on the different trends. Lott and Mustard build mod­ and Carlisle (1997, 221), reported on the reception of els that estimate the effects of demographic data, economic a study they did of the effect of imprisonment on homicide data, and criminal punishment on various offenses. These rates. They reported that they: models are the ultimate in statistical home cooking in that they are created for this data set by these authors and only widely circulated [their) findings, along with the data used, tested on the data that will be used in the evaluation of the to colleagues who specialize in quantitative analysis. The right-to-carry impacts. most frequent response is that they refuse to believe the results no matter how good the statistical analysis. Behind Lott and Mustard were comparing trends in Idaho and that contention is the notion, often discussed informally but seldom published, that social scientists can obtain any result West Virginia and Mississippi with trends in Washington, desired by manipulating the procedures used. In fact, the D.C. and New York City. What actually happened was that wide variety of estimates concerning the impact of prison there was an explosion of crack-related homicides in major populations is taken as good evidence of the malleability of eastern cities in the 1980s and early 1990s. Lott's whole argu­ research. The implication, even among many who regularly publish quantitative studies, is that no matter how thorough ment came down to a claim that the largely rural and western the analysis, results are not credible unless they conform "shall issue" states were spared the crack-related homicide epi­ with prior expectations. A research discipline cannot suc­ demic because of their "shall issue" laws. This would never ceed in such a framework. have been taken seriously if it had not been obscured by a maze of equations. To their great merit, Marvell and Moody frankly acknowl­ edged the problems with multiple regression, and made some Myth Two: Imprisoning More People Cuts Crime suggestions for improvement. Unfortunately, some econome- The Lott and Mustard case was exceptional only in the tricians become so immersed in their models that they lose amount of public attention it received. It is quite common, track of how arbitrary they are. They come to believe diat their even typical, for rival studies to be published using economet­ models are more real, more valid, than the messy, recalcitrant, ric methods to reach opposite conclusions about the same "uncontrolled" reality they purport to explain. issue. Often there is nothing demonstrably wrong with either of the analyses. They simply use slightly different data sets or Myth Three: Executing People Cuts Crime different techniques to achieve different results. It seems as if In 1975 The American Economic Review published an article by

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2002 21 a leading economist, Isaac Ehrlich of the University of Myth Four: Legalized Abortion Caused the Crime Michigan, who estimated that each execution deterred eight Drop in the 1990s homicides. Before Ehrlich, the best known specialist on die In 1999, John Donohue and Steven Levitt released a study effectiveness of capital punishment was Thorsten Sellen, who with a novel explanation of the sharp decline in murder rates had used a much simpler method of analysis. Sellen prepared in the 1990s. They argued that the legalization of abortion by graphs comparing trends in different states. He found little or the U.S. Supreme Court in 1973 caused a decrease in the birth no difference between states with or without the death penalty, of unwanted children, a disproportionate number of whom so he concluded that the death penalty made no difference. would have grown up to be criminals. The problem with this Ehrlich, in an act of statistical one-upmanship, claimed that argument is that the legalization of abortion was a one-time his analysis was more valid because it controlled for all the fac­ historical event, and one-time events do not provide enough tors that influence homicide rates. data for a valid regression analysis. It is true that abortion was legalized earlier in some states than others, and Donohue and Levitt make use of this fact. But all these states were going through It is quite common, even typical, for rival the same historical processes, and many other things were happening in the same studies to be published using econometric historical period that affected murder rates. methods to reach opposite conclusions A valid regression analysis would have to capture all of these things, and test them about the same issue. Often there is nothing under a wide range of variation. The exist­ demonstrably wrong with either ing data do not permit that, so the results of a regression analysis will vary depending on of the analyses. which data are selected for analysis. In this case, Donohue and Levitt chose to focus on change over a twelve-year time span, ignoring fluctuations within those Even before it was published, Ehrlich's work was cited by years. By doing this, as James Fox (2000, 303) pointed out, the Solicitor General of the United States in an amicus curiae "they missed most of the shifts in crime during this period— brief filed with the United States Supreme Court in defense the upward trend during the late 1980s crack era and the of the death penalty. Fortunately, the Court decided not to downward correction in the post-crack years. This is some­ rely upon Ehrlich's evidence because it had not been con­ thing like studying the effects of phases on ocean tides firmed by other researchers. This was wise, because within a but only recording data for periods of low tide." year or two other researchers published equally sophisticated When I was writing this article, I included a sentence stating econometric analyses showing that the death penalty had no "soon another regression analyst will probably reanalyze the same deterrent effect. data and reach different conclusions." A few days later, my wife The controversy over Ehrlich's work was so important that handed me a newspaper story about just such a study. The author the National Research Council convened a blue ribbon panel was none other than John Lott of Yale, togetiier widi John Whitley of experts to review it. After a very thorough review, the panel of the University of Adelaide. They crunched the same numbers decided that the problem was not just with Ehrlich's model, and concluded diat "legalizing abortion increased murder rates by but with the idea of using econometric methods to resolve around about 0.5 to 7 percent" (Lott and Whitely 2001). controversies over criminal justice policies. They (Manski Why such markedly different results? Each set of authors 1978, 422) concluded that: simply selected a different way to model an inadequate body because the data likely to be available for such analysis have of data. Econometrics cannot make a valid general law out of limitations and because criminal behavior can be so complex, the historical fact that abortion was legalized in the 1970s and the emergence of a definitive behavioral study lying to rest all crime went down in the 1990s. We would need at least a few controversy about the behavioral effects of deterrence policies dozen such historical experiences for a valid statistical test. should not be expected. Conclusions Most experts now believe that Sellen was right, that cap­ ital punishment has no demonstrable effect on murder The acid test in statistical modeling is prediction. Prediction rates. But Ehrlich has not been persuaded. He is now a does not have to be perfect. If a model can predict significantly lonely true believer in the validity of his model. In a recent better than random guessing, it is useful. For example, if a interview (Bonner and Fessendren 2000) he insisted "if model could predict stock prices even slightly better than variations like unemployment, income inequality, likeli­ random guessing, it would make its owners very wealthy. So hood of apprehension, and willingness to use the death a great deal of effort has gone into testing and evaluating penalty are accounted for, the death penalty shows a signif­ models of stock prices. Unfortunately, researchers who use icant deterring effect." econometric techniques to evaluate social policies very seldom

22 January/February 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER subject their models to predictive tests. Their excuse is that it ics simply give up in frustration. The Philadelphia Inquirers takes too long for the outcomes to be known. You don't get David Boldt (1999), after John Lott speak on con­ new data on poverty, abortion, or homicide every few minutes cealed weapons and homicide rates, and checking with other as you do with stock prices. But researchers can do predictive experts, lamented that "trying to sort out the academic argu­ testing in other ways. They can develop a model using data ments is almost a fool's errand. You can drown in disputes over from one jurisdiction or time period, then use it to predict t-statistics, dummy variables, and 'Poisson' vs. 'least squares' data from other times or places. But most researchers simply data analysis methods." do not do this, or if they do the models fail and the results are Boldt was correct to suspect that he was being lured into a never published (the "filedrawer problem"). The journals that publish econometric studies of public policy issues often do not require predictive testing, which shows that The researcher stops, writes up the the editors and reviewers have low expecta­ tions for their fields. So researchers take data findings, and sends the paper off for for a fixed period of time and keep fine tun­ publication. Later, another researcher may ing and adjusting their model until they can "explain" trends that have already happened. adjust the model to obtain a different result. There are always a number of ways to do This fills the pages of scholarly journals, this, and with modern computers it is not and everybody pretends not to notice terribly hard to keep trying until you find something that fits. At that point, the that little or no progress is being made. researcher stops, writes up the findings, and sends the paper off for publication. Later, another researcher may adjust the model to obtain a different result. This fills the pages of scholarly jour­ fool's mission. There are, in fact, no important findings in nals, and everybody pretends not to notice that little or no sociology or that cannot be communicated to progress is being made. But we are no closer to having a valid journalists and policy makers who lack graduate degrees in econometric model of murder rates today than we were when econometrics. It is time to admit that the emperor has no Isaac Ehrlich published the first model in 1975. clothes. When presented with an econometric model, con­ The does not have good procedures sumers should insist on evidence that it can predict trends in for acknowledging the failure of a widely used research method. data other than the data used to create it. Models that fail this Methods that are entrenched in graduate programs at leading test are junk science, no matter how complex the analysis. universities and published in prestigious journals tend to be perpetuated. Many laymen assume that if a study has been pub­ References lished in a peer-reviewed journal, it is valid. The cases we have Berk. Richard A. 1991. Toward a methodology for mere mortals. Sociological examined show that this is not always so. Peer review assures Methodology 21: 315-324. Black, Dan, and Daniel Nagin. 1998. Do right-to-carry laws deter violent that established practices have been followed, but it is of little crime? Journal of Legal Studies 27: 209-219. help when those practices themselves are faulty. Boldt, David. 1999. Study evidence on guns. Philadelphia Inquirer. December In 1991, David Freedman, a distinguished sociologist at 14. Downloaded on May 17, 2000. from: www.phillyncws.com/ inquircr/99/Dcc/]4/opinion/BOLDTl4.htm. the University of California at Berkeley and the author of text­ Bonner, Raymond, and Ford Fessendren. 2000. States with no death penalty books on quantitative research methods, shook the founda­ share lower homicide rates. New York limes, September 22. Downloaded tions of regression modeling when he frankly stated, "I do not from: www.nyiimes.com/2000/09/22/national/22DEAT.himl. Donohuc. John, and Steven Levitt. 1999. legalized Abortion and Crime. think that regression can carry much of the burden in a causal Stanford University Law School. Downloaded in August 2000 from: argument. Nor do regression equations, by themselves, give http://papcrs.ssrn.com/papcr.ufJABSTRACT_lD-174508. much help in controlling for confounding variables" Fox, James. 2000. Demographics and U.S. homicide. In A. Blumstein and J. Wallman (eds.). The in America. Cambridge University Press, (Freedman 1991, 292). Freedmans article provoked a number New York. pp. 288-317. of strong reactions. Richard Berk (1991, 315) observed that Freedman, David. 1991. Statistical models and shoe leather. Sociological Freedmans argument "will be very difficult for most quantita­ Methodology2\: 291-313. Lott, John. 2000. More Guns, Less Crime: Understanding Crime and Gun tive sociologists to accept. It goes to the heart of their empiri­ Control LawS. Press, second edition with additional cal enterprise and in so doing, puts entire professional careers analyses. in jeopardy." Lott, John, and John Whitley. 2001. Abortion and crime: Unwanted children and out-of-wedlock births. Yale Law & Research Paper No. 254. Faced with critics who want some proof that they can pre­ Downloaded on July 9, 2001, from: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/ dict trends, regression modelers often fall back on statistical papcrs.cfm?abstract_id=270126. one-upmanship. They make arguments so complex that only Marvell, Thomas, and C. Carlisle Moody. 1997. The impact of prison growth on homicide. Homicide Studies 1: 205—233. other highly trained regression analysts can understand, let Zimring. Frank, and Gordon Hawkins. 1997. Concealed handguns: the coun­ alone refute, them. Often this technique works. Potential crit­ terfeit deterrent. The Responsive Community 7: 46-60.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 200? 23 Education, Scientific Knowledge, and Belief in the Paranormal

Education may not be the antidote to paranormal thinking that some observers imagine. Even scientific knowledge and scientific reasoning correlate inconsistently with paranormalism. Here's a new look at the relationship between these two seemingly contradictory dimensions. ERICH GOODE

he late informed us that science is "a can­ dle in the dark." He exhorted the educational system Tto teach its students the fundamentals of science. Over time, he feared, pseudoscience and will become increasingly appealing. "Darkness gathers," he declared ominously. "The demons begin to stir" (Sagan 1995, 27). Only a sound scientific education, Sagan argued, can slay those demons. Jon Miller agrees. His surveys, he con­ cludes, demonstrate a strong negative correlation between education and paranormal belief: The lower the level of the respondents education, the higher the likelihood of his or her acceptance of each paranormal belief in his surveys. Miller pins his hopes on the educational system to stamp out the

24 January/February 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER acceptance of such "superstition and pseudoscience" as astrol­ tionship to education and scientific knowledge. I suggest fur­ ogy, belief in lucky numbers, and creationism. Miller dubs the ther that the notion that paranormalism violates the laws of uneducated "the scientific illiterate." His claim is that "For the nature is an emic concept among scientists—an idea supported 25 million Americans who do not have a high school diploma, by the lore that is accepted within the scientific community and the world is a strange, hostile, and somewhat dangerous place" largely alien to the general public. (Miller 1987, 30). Hence, the appeal of paranormalism. I make use of two data sources. The first is the many public Sagan and Miller offer what might be referred to as the pos- opinion surveys conducted by a variety of polling organizations itivistic or enlightenment view of the education-paranormal con­ whose data are available to interested parties from the Roper nection. Education is seen as antithetical to paranormal (or Center. In addition, I conducted a small survey among the stu­ "pseudoscientific") belief. In effect, education, especially in sci­ dents in several classes at a large Eastern state university, asking entific subjects, destroys paranormalism; education is the enemy the respondents, among other matters, about their acceptance of pseudoscience. I define paranormalism as the belief in any of paranormal beliefs, knowledge of scientific and science-like power or force which the overwhelming majority of scientists facts, and questions that tapped their ability to transcend erro­ argue violates a basic scientific rule, principle, or law. Hence, by neous judgmental heuristics and reason in a scientific fashion. this definition, astrology, belief in lucky numbers, and creation­ ism are paranormal beliefs—as is belief in ghosts; direct, inter­ Paranormalism with a Traditional Religious Lineage active communication with the dead; ; ESP; that I make a sharp distinction between paranormal beliefs that stem UFOs are "something real"; alien abductions; angels; the devil; from a religious heritage and those that do not. My first general­ pyramid power; extra-mechanical levitation; and living past ization: The relationship between education and paranormalism lives. Clearly, since science education refutes such misconcep­ depends on whether a given belief is promulgated by a traditional tions, the more of it we have, the less we believe in them. religious body. Traditional religious beliefs that are paranormal, My hypothesis is a bit different from the "enlightenment" that is, that violate the canons of scientific causality, exhibit a position. I propose that the frequently stated argument that negative correlation with education and scientific knowledge. education is an antidote to paranormal beliefs is at least partly Here, Sagan's positivist model is safe and sound. And here, belief erroneous. I suggest that paranormal thinking is made up of a in creationism represents the preeminent example. diversity of strands, some of which are discouraged with Practically every poll or survey ever conducted has revealed a increased levels of education and some of which are not. I fur­ negative correlation between education and belief in creation­ ther suggest that the human capacity to compartmentalize cat­ ism. (Or, to turn the equation around, a positive correlation egories of thinking is sufficiently great as to permit simultane­ between education and belief in .) In a recent Gallup ous belief in assertions that are contradictory. Many individuals, poll, respondents were asked if they agreed with the following in fact, accept the truth of paranormal assertions alongside sci­ assertion: "God created human beings pretty much in their entific principles that logically and factually contradict them. I suggest that, instead of a simple, unambiguous negative Erich Goode is visiting professor at the Department of Criminology relationship between education and scientific knowledge on the and Criminal Justice. University of Maryland College Park. MD one hand and paranormalism on the other, there are different 20742, and Professor Emeritus, State University of New York at dimensions of paranormalism, each with its own special rela­ Stony Brook. E-mail [email protected].

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2002 25 present form at one time within the last 10,000 years or so." A thing real." There is no step-wise correlation here. In a survey majority (or 58 percent) of respondents who were not high sponsored by Newsweek and conducted by the Princeton Survey school graduates agreed. This figure declined in a step-wise Research Associates, the percentage who believed that UFOs are fashion as education increased; only 24 percent of respondents alien space ships was the same for respondents without a high with at least some postgraduate education agreed. There are school education as for those with a postgraduate education. In practically no surveys that contradict this finding. Any observer a Gallup poll, the educational category with the highest level of must be struck by the robustness of this relationship. belief that UFOs have visited Earth was respondents with some The relationship between education and belief in heaven college (51 percent); the percentage was lower for less than high and hell as actual, materially real places, and angels and the devil school graduates (48 percent) and respondents with a postgrad­ as materially real beings, follow the same pattern. A national uate education (39 percent). In a Yankelovich poll, the percent­ survey by the Pew Research Center found that 92 percent of ages answering yes to die question "Do you personally believe respondents who had less than a high school education believed in the existence of UFOs?" was almost perfectly flat by educa­ in heaven as a real place, while rJiis dropped to 73 percent for tion until the category postgraduate education, which dipped respondents with a postgraduate education. The percentage slightly. The fact is, there is no consistent relationship between who accepted hell as an actual place fell from 80 percent for education and belief that UFOs are alien aircraft. non-high school graduates to 56 percent for persons with a Generalizing even further, most of the classic paranormal postgraduate education. And the same applies to belief in angels beliefs also bear an inconsistent relationship with education. and the devil as materially real beings. Roughly 20 to 30 per­ Some surveys indicate a negative relationship for some para­ cent more of the least-educated respondents believe in angels normal beliefs, but for most surveys and for most beliefs, die than is true of the most well-educated ones. Possession by the results are noteworthy for their lack of pattern. A survey con­ devil is especially steeply graded by education. A recent Gallup ducted by the Princeton Survey Research Association for poll revealed that a majority (or 56 percent) of the less than high Newsweek found that high school dropouts were barely more school educated respondents believe that "people on this earth likely to agree with the statement, "Do you consider yourself a are sometimes possessed by the devil" while only 22 percent of believer in the paranormal and supernatural?" (43 percent ver­ the more than college-educated respondents do. sus 39 percent). Moreover, in-between educational categories So, here's my first generalization: Paranormal beliefs that are were not necessarily in between with respect to belief. The sustained by a religious tradition bear a negative relationship with same applied to , ESP, and astrology. A Gallup poll education. The greater the education, the lower the level of found a strong and consistent negative relationship between acceptance of belief in religious assertions that science says are education and belief in astrology—but it also found that post­ all but impossible in the strictly material sense. graduates were more likely to believe in telepathy than high school dropouts. However, the Gallup poll's relationship Paranormal Beliefs without a Religious Lineage between education and belief in communication with the dead But traditional religion-based paranormal beliefs are not the was practically flat. True, the National Science Foundation's only dimension of paranormalism. For instance, many recent survey, Science and Engineering Indicators, found a neg­ observers argue that the belief diat UFOs are alien or extrater­ ative correlation between education and belief in astrology, but restrial aircraft is a form of paranormalism. This is so, they say, a scan of dozens of public opinion polls finds an inconsistent for two reasons. One, according to Einstein's theory of relativ­ relationship between education and the classic forms of para­ ity, objects cannot travel faster man or even approach the speed normalism—with the possible exception of belief in haunted of light. Hence, any spaceship from an inhabited could houses, which the least well-educated seem to be consistently not get to Earth within the lifetime of any conceivable living more likely to believe in than the best-educated. This is not being. Whether such a scientific or technological feat is possible good news for the enlightenment thesis that more education is secondary to the fact that most UFO believers appear to man­ will provide "a candle in the dark" and defeat the "demon- ifest no interest whatsoever in the nuts-and-bolts physics of haunted world" of paranormalism. such a feat, assuming that extraterrestrials could simply "tran­ scend" the laws of nature. And two, a second reason why belief Science and Science-Related Knowledge versus that UFOs are alien craft is paranormal in nature is diat a very Paranormal Beliefs high proportion of UFO believers attribute almost godlike— I look into this relationship from a slightly different angle by and most decidedly paranormal—powers to alien visitors. exploring die correlation between science and science-related Achieving such feats such as moving through solid objects such knowledge and paranormal beliefs. I polled two classes of stu­ as walls; teleportation or "beaming up" large objects, including dents at an Eastern state-supported institution of higher learn­ entire cities, to their mother ship; floating or hovering in space; ing. Among other questions, I asked diem about paranormal and traveling through time are considered by believers not only beliefs, scientific and science-like facts, as well as questions possible but routine accomplishments of these extraterrestrial designed to elicit respondents' capacity to reason systematically visitors (see Mack 1995). and scientifically, in contrast to using commonsensical judg­ In contrast with belief in creationism, education bears an mental heuristics often employed by much of the lay public, as inconsistent relationship with the belief that UFOs are "some­ spelled out by psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos

26 January/February 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Tversky (Kahneman, Slovic, and Tversky 1982). I asked my Conclusions respondents which planet is closest to () and which one But if this much is true, then why doesn't the same relationship is farthest from (Pluto) the Sun; which is the second most pop­ that holds for religiously based paranormalism prevail for para­ ulous country in the world (India); which is the northernmost normal beliefs that are separate and independent from tradi­ state (Alaska); questions pertaining to Tversky and Kahneman's tional religious dogma? My speculation is that the relationship representativeness heuristic (Is Tom more likely to be an I've looked at here is confounded by another dimension: tradi­ accountant or a professional football player? Is Jane more likely tionalism. Persons who accept the assertions of paranormal to be a school teacher or an astronaut?); some knowledge of the events as dictated by fundamentalist religious dogma tend to be law of large numbers (Is the likelihood that 60 percent of the more traditional, conservative, and conventional across the babies born each day will be boys greater for a small or a large board than is true of persons who reject the validity of such hospital?); and knowledge of simple statistical reasoning (On a assertions. At the same time, persons who accept non-religious given trip, is the fatality rate higher for cars or motorcycles?). paranormal assertions as valid tend to be less traditional, more Yes, it's true: Fairly consistently, my data demonstrate that a liberal, and more unconventional than those who do not. It's negative relationship exists between adherence to the religious possible that any educational curriculum aimed at the strictly beliefs that contain a paranormal component and scientific and cognitive level will not make much of a dent in this fundamen­ science-like knowledge and reasoning. The relationship was not tal and primal relationship. always statistically significant, but the direction of the relation­ Henri Broch (2000) reports that, in France, public opinion ship is remarkably consistent. Fairly consistently, the respon­ polls actually demonstrate a positive relationship between para­ dents who believed a) in the creation of the universe in six days normal beliefs and education, that level of belief in paranor­ less than 10,000 years ago; b) in angels and the devil as materi­ malism actually rises as education rises. (A finding which ally real beings; and c) in heaven and hell as materially real strikes at the heart of the Sagan hypothesis.) However, in an places knew less about the physical world than nonbelievers did. attempt to overturn this relationship, he has developed a They were also more likely to make use of commonsensical but course at the university level designed to reduce belief in para­ erroneous judgmental heuristics, and were less able to reason on normalism by getting students to participate directly and the basis of a science-like thinking process. Not only are persons actively in hands-on experiments which demonstrate one or who accept extra-scientific religious assertions more likely to more extrascientific claims to be false by revealing how such reject science's take on reality but they also tend to know less claims can be faked. Broch claims extremely high rates of suc­ about science and how it works. So far, so good. cess with these experiments. What about the dimensions of paranormal belief that do not Broch's data suggest that die acquisition of education may owe their existence to traditional religious dogma? Believers in not demolish paranormal beliefs because much scientific UFOs were a bit more likely than nonbelievers to know that knowledge and even acquaintance with the scientific method Mercury is the planet closest to die Sun than nonbelievers but operate on far too abstract a level. It is only when specific para­ a bit less likely to know that Pluto is the farthest planet from the normal beliefs are placed in direct, rude juxtaposition with a Sun. Neither relationship approaches statistical significance. specific, systematic, empirical test that faith in them is dimin­ UFO believers were slightly less likely to know that India is the ished. In other words, for the mass of the public, working from second most populous country in the world but a smidgen the top down doesn't seem to have an impact. more likely to know that Alaska is the northernmost state in the I don't recommend that we abandon science in our educa­ United States. Neither relationship is even remotely statistically tional curricula. But what I wonder about is how science is significant. A variety of questions entailing reasoning by means taught. It's possible that most science instructors don't consider of commonsensical judgmental heuristics versus scientific rea­ paranormal and pseudoscience assertions a sufficient threat to soning yielded no differences whatsoever between UFO believ­ science that they confront them directly with the evidence of ers and nonbelievers. In short, answers to the science questions our senses. It's possible that the current curriculum isn't doing for respondents in these two categories were all over die map, enough to combat pseudoscience. Clearly, we have a great deal with no consistent pattern or direction. to learn about these relationships and what we can do about I ran the same correlations for agreement with the assertions: them—or even if we can do anything about them at all. "An ancient curse on die tomb of King Tut actually killed peo­ References ple," "Some people have special psychic powers," and "Some numbers are especially lucky for some people." The same rela­ Broch, Henri. 2000. Save our science: The struggle for reason ai ihc university. SKHTKIAL INQUIRER 24(31:34-39. tionship as for belief in UFOs as real prevailed: Paranormalism Kahneman, Daniel. Paul Slovic, and Amos Tversky. 1982. Judgment Under bears an inconsistent relationship with scientific knowledge and Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University reasoning. So, here's my second generalization: If my little study Press. Mack. John. 1995. Abductions: Human Encounters with Aliens. New York: and die many relevant public opinion polls conducted each year Bantam Books. are any guide, non-religious paranormalists know about as much Miller, Jon D. 1987. The Scientifically Illiterate. American Demographics 9 science, and reason as scientifically, as persons who reject the valid­ (June): 27-31. Sagan. Carl. 1995. The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the ity of paranormal ot extrascientific forces. Dark. New York: Random House. O

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2002 27 A University's Struggle With Chiropractic

York University recently rejected a merger with a chiropractic college. The deliberation process leading up to this decision illustrates how susceptible universities can be to overtures by colleges of alternative medicine. Lessons learned from this situation may prove helpful for institutions facing similar temptations in the future.

MICHAEL De ROBERTIS

££ £y Senate's approval in principle has been negated." ^ With these words on April 26, 2001, York \*J University rejected an affiliation proposal with the Canadian Memorial Chiropractic College. The unfolding of the six-year deliberation process leading up to this announcement provides a good illustration of the current political climate within universities and the temptations they face. Since such pressures will only increase as the popularity of alternative medicine grows, it is important to chronicle York's story and to reflect on the lessons that have been learned. York University, located in Toronto, Ontario, is the third- largest university in Canada with over 1,000 faculty and

28 January/February 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER an enrollment of 40,000 students. Though it has a relatively pus. An informed decision was particularly important in this small science faculty—the Faculty of Pure and Applied Science instance because York was poised to become the first major uni­ (FPAS)—it has no medical school or large-scale healrJi program. versity in the world to merge with a chiropractic college. The Canadian Memorial Chiropractic College (CMCC), also in Toronto, has about 100 faculty and admits about 160 Scientists were repudiated for their new students annually into its four-year Doctor of Chiropractic (D.C.) program. adherence to "the truth" when there are clearly The College was opened exactly fifty years "many truths." Being "grant-fixated" they to the day after D.D. Palmer, the founder of chiropractic, gave his first adjustment, were said to be incapable of recognizing and hence the "Memorial" in the College's that alternative medicine is the way of name. More than three-quarters of licensed chiropractors in Canada have graduated the future and that York should be a from CMCC (Kopansky-Giles and leader and not a follower. Papadopoulos, 1997) and less than 19 per­ cent "rejects traditional chiropractic philos­ ophy as espoused by D.D. and B.J. Palmer and emphasize the scientific validation of chiropractic con­ cepts and methods" (Biggs, Hay, and Mierau 1997). CMCC has sought affiliation with Canadian universities over a dozen times in its history (Brown 1996, 1994). Shortly after being rejected by the University of Victoria (British Columbia) in 1992, CMCC adopted a "revenue-neutral" model for attracting prospec­ tive partners, meaning that CMCC would remain fiscally separate from its university partner after the merger. York was among three Ontario universities that found this new approach appealing and in 1995 signed an agreement to enter into exclusive negotiations with CMCC. The basic understanding was that CMCC would provide a sum of $ 17 million (U.S.) for new buildings, infrastructure, etc., while York would mount some courses for chiropractic students and offer a D.C. degree.

Deliberation Prior to "Approval in Principle" Thus began a seriously flawed, six-year adjudication process at York University that spanned two administrations and spawned numerous committees. Through­ out this period, neither York's administration nor its Senate expressed the slightest reservation that the pseudoscientific and antiscientific atti­ tudes harbored by contemporary chiropractic and evident in CMCC's curriculum would be legitimized by an affiliation, compromising Michael De Robertis is a professor of physics and astron­ York's academic integrity. Moreover, they con­ omy at York University and one of four faculty members tinually ignored pleas to solicit expert opinion who led the opposition against affiliation with CMCC. from the external biomedical community on die He is also a member of The Ontario Skeptics. Mailing address: grounds that York was entirely capable of dealing with this issue Department of Physics & Astronomy. York University 4700KeeleSt. on its own, despite the fact that there were no experts on cam­ Toronto, ON Canada M3J 1P3.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2002 29 The first act of York's then-Vice President of Academic Each of these arguments is quite facile and easily refutable. Affairs was to create an internal six-member Task Force The first was by far the most popular defense of this initiative. whose mandate was to advise the administration on the aca­ Few seem to recognize that licensure has little to do with sci­ demic integrity of CMCC's programs and curriculum and entific legitimacy or the ability to establish a research culture, the opportunities for academic links between CMCC and the essential issues at hand for a major university. Massage York University. The fact that the Task Force Report strongly therapy, for example, is licensed and regulated in Ontario, but endorsed an affiliation and found no areas of concern for no one has suggested offering a university degree in it; (b) is York's integrity was not surprising: none of the Task Force simply inaccurate, though it may sound convincing to some members was an expert in chiropractic, and the most influ­ academics for whom everything is political. Chiropractic has ential member, one of only two scientists and a distinguished remained on the margins by choice, refusing even today to biologist, had been advocating a closer relationship with reject in all its guises. And there is considerable doubt CMCC for more than two decades. Even had members been that a four-year university program culminating in a D.C. aware that CMCC's course descriptions referred to unscien­ degree is necessary to treat musculoskeletal conditions, some­ tific "subluxations," that CMCC supported pediatric chiro­ thing conventional therapists do with comparable effectiveness but without die vitalistic baggage; (c) is entirely irresponsible until chiropractic Why no York official felt compelled to renounces its antiscientific practices and address a single biomedical concern is a attitudes of its own volition. Moreover, if social responsibility were the issue, a merger matter of some speculation. University with an institution with a medical school officials may well have been confident that would be far more appropriate; (d) there are no compelling studies that show that chiro­ their support was deep enough that they could practic therapies are safe and effective. get away with ignoring scientific issues. Some may even be dangerous (e.g., Norris, Beletsky, and Nadareishvili 2000); (e) though fiscal pressures on universities may practic that has been soundly condemned by the Canadian be enormous, is academic integrity for sale? Pediatric Society, that CMCC officially advocated "choice" Scientists in FPAS reacted swiftly and proactively to the in immunization, that its curriculum emphasized chiroprac­ proposal. Prior to the Senate vote, FPAS formed a committee tic radiology, etc., it is unlikely the report would have turned to investigate chiropractic and CMCC—to take its own look out differently, as future events were to reveal. (For more at the issues. The committee's first act was to solicit advice details about difficulties with CMCC and contemporary chi­ from external biomedical experts. What it learned was so dis­ ropractic, see De Robertis et al. 1999, Barrett 1999, and turbing that the overwhelming majority of scientists formally Homola 2001.) voted to have no association with CMCC whatsoever a few The way was now clear to draft an affiliation proposal diat weeks before the Senate vote was scheduled. would come before the Senate in spring 1998 for "approval in What transpired at the May 28, 1998, Senate meeting was principle." Why was York's senior administration so support­ a chilling reminder how tenuous truth's foothold is within the ive of this proposal and confident of its merits? There are indi­ contemporary university (De Robertis 1998). Not only were cations that it felt that a merger would make York an instant FPAS's democratically expressed views ignored, but many sen­ "player" in the burgeoning field of health-care policy in ators took the opportunity to deliver flagrantly Canada, something considered important by influential social speeches while extolling the proposal. Scientists were repudi­ scientists on campus. ated for their adherence to "the truth" when there are clearly It is interesting to consider die reasons offered by York affilia­ "many truths." Being "grant-fixated" they were said to be inca­ tion proponents at one time or anodier to justify their position: pable of recognizing that alternative medicine is the way of the a) Chiropractic is a licensed, regulated profession in future and that York should be a leader and not a follower; Ontario and as such there could be no question of its legiti­ affiliating widi CMCC would be the first step toward securing macy as a university discipline. a medical school; gong and chiropractic are important to b) Chiropractic lacks a research maturity largely because help our dance students ... and so on. Neither FPAS's dean the hegemonous medical establishment has marginalized it for nor its senators countered any of this nonsense. Some science years. As a result, chiropractic finds itself in a position analo­ senators even apologized for FPAS's vote. In the face of this gous to conventional medicine a century ago. tidal wave of irrationality, the Senate voted overwhelmingly to c) Chiropractic certainly needs some reforming, and the grant the proposal "approval in principle." best way to do so—and the most socially responsible way—is to bring it widiin a university environment. Deliberations After "Approval in Principle" d) Chiropractic works. Fortunately, this was not the end: "Approval in principle" is e) The "buy-in" price of $17 million. given to proposals in order to establish a more thorough and

30 January/February 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER deliberate vetting process to be followed at a later time by a become: of the six voting members, five were on record as hav­ final vote in Senate. There was nothing thorough about what ing spoken favorably of the proposal. Of the six nonvoting transpired, however. members, five were chiropractic supporters, including two It was during this period that a small group of faculty (three representatives from CMCC. (The full text of these and other physical scientists and a psychologist), with advice from indi­ relevant reports can be viewed at www.ndir.com/chiro/ vidual experts from the biomedical and scientific communities chronology.html.) in the United States and Canada, mounted a coordinated campaign against the biased and uncritical process. The group's chief demand Chiropractic proponents sometimes was for equal time; since the university had solicited advice extensively from alternative referred to a merger between York and medicine practitioners, it should offer the CMCC as a "marriage," while at the same biomedical community a similar opportu­ nity. How else could an informed decision be time admitting that chiropractic needs to be achieved? reformed. Yet no counselor recommends Yet the administration and Senate ignored or refused all such requests. They marriage in order to change a partner. never invited a single biomedical expert critical of chiropractic to testify on the mer­ its of this proposal of their own volition and ignored the fol­ While it came as no surprise that the committee report sub­ lowing compelling testimony provided in 1999-2000: mitted in November 2000 favored a full affiliation, it was a a) a petition organized by the Council for Scientific major surprise that Atkinson's faculty in March 2001 rejected Medicine whose signatories included two Nobel laureates in any association with CMCC, thereby putting an end to this medicine that asked York not to proceed (www.csicop.org/arti- nightmare once and for all. York and CMCC agreed to go cles/19990203-chiropractic/). their separate ways. b) a petition from 150 York faculty and graduate students asking for the university to reopen the process, this time solic­ Lessons Learned and the Future iting evidence from the biomedical community. In some ways, York University is atypical of major universities c) a letter from the Canadian Pediatric Society repudiating because of its lack of a medical school and relatively small sci­ pediatric chiropractic and asking York not to legitimize it ence Faculty. But in many ways, the difficulties it faces are (www.ndir.com/chiro/cps.html). symptomatic of the times. With ever-shrinking budgets, uni­ d) dozens of letters from prominent medical doctors, scien­ versity administrations are challenged more and more to devise tists, academics, and skeptics from around the world asking creative ways of securing funding. York to reconsider this proposal. Enter alternative medicine, whose popularity with the pub­ e) full-page ads in the student newspaper from the "opposi­ lic is growing rapidly. Colleges of acupuncture, homeopathy, tion," drawing attention to the anti- and pseudoscience attitudes and have become ubiquitous in major centers, within contemporary chiropractic and present in CMCC's cur­ along with chiropractic colleges. Can there be any doubt that riculum, as well as serious flaws in the vetting process. those with "deep pockets" will seek legitimization through affil­ Why no York official felt compelled to address a single bio­ iations with universities in the future? Interested university medical concern is a matter of some speculation. University offi­ administrations will spin it differently. They will speak about cials may well have been confident mat their support was deep the social responsibility of their institution both for improving enough mat they could get away with ignoring scientific issues. die training and outlook of alternative practitioners and in When FPAS rejected any association with CMCC, the uni­ demonstrating the safety and efficacy of the relevant therapies. versity had to identify another host faculty if it wished to carry But this overlooks two very important points. Chiropractic through with the proposal. Still strongly supportive, it chose proponents sometimes referred to a merger between York and Atkinson College, a Faculty of Liberal and Professional CMCC as a "marriage," while at the same time admitting that Studies, which had a small nursing program and which aspired chiropractic needs to be reformed. Yet no counselor recom­ to a School of Health Studies. mends marriage in order to change a partner. First change, Atkinson unexpectedly showed little enthusiasm for this then talk. In the same way, even if some alternative therapies initiative. Its first committee established to consider whether are eventually found to be effective and safe, until colleges to host CMCC issued a split report in June 2000. At that adopt contemporary biomedical paradigms instead of millen­ point, five years into the process, CMCC made it clear it was nia-old vitalistic notions—i.e., get rid of the nonsense in their growing impatient. Within two months, another Atkinson curricula and make an attempt to educate its practitioners— committee was created whose mandate was to explore all pos­ no university should contemplate an affiliation. Furthermore, sible relationships the two institutions might share. The com­ contrary to arguments made by some sociologists, no univer­ position of this committee illustrates how desperate things had sity has a responsibility to take in an alternative medicine

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Januaiy/February 2002 31 community simply because a significant minority of the pop­ • Where an institution has no internal expertise in the area, ulation uses its therapies. Many adults believe in astrology, but both the alternative and conventional medical communities university administrators wouldn't entertain a serious sugges­ should be consulted. If the administration or faculty refuses, tion to merge with a school of astrology (one hopes). then it is up to the science faculty to press its case with all legal Second, a responsible affiliation presupposes that relevant means at its disposal. alternative therapies have been demonstrated to be safe and • Local and national medical associations should be effective. Very few universities are capable on their own of pressed to provide clear statements on areas of concern about assessing whether therapies are safe and effective. This is the alternative medicine. Fearing legal consequences, most med­ ical associations and conventional practi­ tioners now appear to have adopted the "live and let live" approach when it comes No university has a responsibility to to alternative medicine. Yet where bio- take in an alternative medicine community medicine has serious evidence-based criti­ cisms of an alternative therapy (e.g., pedi­ simply because a significant minority of the atric chiropractic), it has a responsibility to population uses its therapies. alert the broader scientific community, politicians, and the public. It would be convenient if medical societies could pro­ vide regularly updated position papers on responsibility of institutions with significant budgets and the alternative therapies. will to carry out such tests like the National Center for • Never give up! There are a couple of instances when Complementary and Alternative Medicine of the National things looked particularly bleak at York, but the sun always Institutes of Health. seemed to rise again. No single tactic won the battle. For this York's administration won't be the last to contemplate seri­ reason, it is important to mount a campaign that is broadly ously an affiliation with a college of alternative medicine. based. It is likely that you will receive strong support from Based on the experience at York, the following insights might many colleagues in private, but very few will stand at your side prove useful for another institution facing a similar situation. in public. And be prepared for scientists who will support the • Scientists must become involved as early as possible in the proposal, defying all logic. Scientists are as susceptible as any­ process in order to impress upon the administration the impor­ one else to the temptations of politics. tance of adhering to scientific, academic, and ethical integrity Finally, it is important to view your own struggle in the and to filter out the facile arguments of the type cited above. broader context, as part of a much larger campaign in which While it is necessary to have a core group of scientists leading all skeptics are called to participate. Cash-strapped, postsec- the charge, it is equally important to obtain broad-based sup­ ondary institutions will continue to be wooed in the near port from a number of departments and faculties, especially future by alternative medicine: "Have money, seek legitimacy. outside of science, in order to diminish the effectiveness of anti- Are you for sale?" And the moment the first university suc­ science attacks. These supporters must include faculty admin­ cumbs to this temptation, society will have taken a fork in the istrators whose position must be made loud and clear. All par­ road that leads away from enlightenment. ticipants, regardless of their position, should declare any con­ flict of interest at the outset, and benefits accruing to a depart­ References ment or faculty from a merger should be clearly identified. Barrett, Stephen. 1999. Evidence of unscientific teaching at CMCC. Available • Always take the "high road." Those for whom scientific at www.chirobasc.org/03Edu/york.html. integrity is secondary might reject the science faculty's position Biggs, Leslie, David Hay, and Dale Micrau. 1997. Attitude* of Canadian chi­ ropractors. Journal of the Canadian Chiropractic Association 41(3): if they perceive it has been made in an unscholarly or arrogant 145-154. manner. For such faculty, it is particularly effective to identify Brown, Douglas M. 1996. Journal of the Canadian Chiropractic Association violations of process. Such violations may be an indication 40(2):87-99. . 1994. Journal of the Canadian Chiropractic Association 38(l):41-54. that the administration has not thought things through prop­ De Robertis, M., 1998. Concerns about Chiropractic at York University: erly, or may be hiding things. It might also help to point out Scientific Objections. Scientific Review of Alternative Medicine. to the community that such an affiliation effectively amounts 2(2):49-55. De Robertis, Michael, J. Alcock, D. Bohme, and S. Jeffers. 1999. Scientific to the "corporatization of the university." objections to York-CMCC affiliation. Available at www.ndir.com/chiro/ • It is important to introduce precedence into the conver­ scientifichtml, sation as early as possible. At York University, the more than a Homola, Samuel. 2001. Chiropractic: Docs the Bad Outweigh the Good? SKEPTICAL INQUIRER 25(0:50-53. dozen previous affiliation attempts by CMCC were unknown Kopansky-Giles, Deborah, and Costa Papadopoulos. 1997. Profile of to the community until well after "approval in principle" had Canadian chiropractors. Journal of the Canadian Chiropractic Association been granted. If other institutions have turned down a similar 38(l):41-54. Norris, John. Vadim Belctsky, and Zurab G. Nadarcishvili. 2000. The dangers affiliation in the past, why should your university even con­ of chiropractic neck manipulation. Canadian Medical Association Journal sider this proposal? 163(l):38-40. D

32 January/February 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Snaring the Fowler: Mark Twain Debunks Phrenology

In the 1870s Mark Twain performed a single-blind reliability test on the analysis technique of Lorenzo Niles Fowler, one of the eminent phrenologists of the day. DELANO JOSE LOPEZ

n Mark Twain's A Connecticut Yankee in King Arthurs Court, the protagonist, Hank Morgan, watches his Imedieval companion wallowing with some pigs she are enchanted nobles, and says, "I was ashamed of her, ashamed of the human race." Twain's own shame and embarrassment at his fellow humans wallowing in supersti­ tion and pseudoscience can be seen throughout his career. Like many good skeptics, Twain was an experienced hoaxster and prankster himself. When he was a young news­ paper reporter, he wrote a spoof of the numerous spurious archaeological claims accompanying the western expansion. In his "Petrified Man" he described the discovery of such a find. Presented as an legitimate news article, the account

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2002 33 included a number of geographical improbabilities that any­ ior. As taught by its practitioners and followers, no less than one familiar with the local area would have recognized as far­ the totality of human experience could be explained by the cical, or so Twain thought. He was disappointed to discover proper application of this science. To this end, Lorenzo and his that his readers and credulous papers across the country (and brother Orson Squire Fowler published books dealing with a even internationally) had uncritically accepted the story. If a vatiety of applications of phrenology to daily life, from how to careful reader pieced together the positions given for the hands discover the ideal mate to what qualities should be sought in and fingers of the petrified man, it would have been apparent an employee. Phrenological influence can be seen in the writ­ that he was literally thumbing his nose at posterity. ings of Whitman, , and . The Fowlers rose to prominence as the heads of a phrenological empire based at the Twain's critique extended to Phrenological Institute in New York City, paranormal and religious claims, heaping where Lorenzo performed phrenological readings on clients. In addition, the brothers scorn on Mary Baker Eddy and . trained the next generation of phrenolo­ He was also skeptical of the Book of Mormon gists. Connected to the Institute was the Phrenological Cabinet, nicknamed "Gol­ and its claims of divine authorship. gotha," which housed a huge collection of , used both for research purposes and as a museum open to the public. It was often The ease with which this spoof was accepted as fact most P.T. Barnum's most serious competition for tourists. Eventually it likely contributed to Twain's lifelong concern with critiquing became fashionable to have a reading done by the famous phre­ and disproving both accepted truths and exceptional claims. No nologists, and many celebrities of the day had their heads exam­ mere humorist, he was an outspoken political, social and liter­ ined, including Julia Ward Howe, Clara Barton, Hiriam Powers, ary critic, his targets ranging from American imperialism ("To Theodore Weldand, and Edwin Forrest. The Fowlers became The Person Sitting In Darkness"), anti-Semitism ("Concerning celebrities in their own right, even being satirized in the popular the Jews") and anti-Chinese bigotry, ("Goldsmith's Friend press, along with a business partner, Samuel Wells, as the firm of Abroad Again") to the "literary offenses" of James Fennimore "Bumpus and Crane" Cooper and the authorship of 's plays. The brothers Fowler also managed a large publishing His critique extended to paranormal and religious claims, house, which issued phrenological works written by the heaping scorn on Mary Baker Eddy and Christian Science, Fowlers and others, including the Phrenological Journal. They arguing that it was unlikely that Eddy was the sole author of were not merely phrenologists, however, but considered them­ Science and Health. He was also skeptical of the Book of selves part of a larger progressive movement that was sweeping Mormon and its claims of divine authorship. It was this hos­ away traditional superstition and bigotry and replacing it with tility to delusion that led to an encounter between Twain and rational reform. In service to this ideal they published a rather another giant of the nineteenth century, a celebrity in his own inclusive and eclectic collection of the nineteenth century's right, Lorenzo Niles Fowler. equivalent of self-help books, including works on hydropathy, Both were self-made men rising from humble beginnings homeopathy, and how to inexpensively build one's own octag­ to become great celebrities of die day, riding to fame on the onal concrete house. They published works on subjects as leading trends and movements of their time. One, however, diverse as poetry, early feminism, and the new art of photog­ remains a household name, the other has faded into obscurity. raphy. They published the first edition of Whitman's Leaves of The two men shared many similarities both in character and Grass, and a photography magazine. Life Illustrated. Their cir­ outlook, yet they were destined to be at odds over Fowler's cle of friends included such reformers as feminist Amelia purview, phrenology. Bloomer and nutritionist Sylvester Graham.

Phrenology and the Fowlers Enter Mark Twain To understand much of that century it is important to under­ It was with some irony that the encounter between these two stand phrenology, for that belief colored much of the country's examples of the spirit of American progress was to be set in thinking at that time regarding what motivated human behav- London. Fowler had moved to London in 1863 and opened a branch of the firm. (Fowler and Wells at various times also had Delano Jose Lopez currently teaches theatrical scenic design at the branches in and Philadelphia.) Twain often toured Europe Bulla School in Potomac, Maryland. He is a contributor to the and lived there tor extended periods, in an attempt to "better" Guide to U.S. Popular Culture, and has written on American himself through exposure to European culture. Many nineteenth skinhead gangs, the faustian dilemma in contemporary film, and century Americans had similar feelings of intellectual inferiority. the representation of Native Americans in popular culture. Twain had some experience with phrenology, having writ­ Address: 1512 Columbia Rd. NW, Washington, D.C. 20009. ten of the itinerant phrenologists of his youth coming to E-mail: [email protected]. Hannibal and giving demonstrations. (Some speculate that

34 January/February 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER these unnamed phrenologists may even have included one of giously superior to it that it abolished my courage and made the Fowlers, though no proof exists.) He also was familiar with me almost spectacularly timid. He continued his discoveries, with the result that 1 came out safe and sound, at the end, with the technique now referred to as , giving a scorn­ a hundred great and shining qualities; but which lost their ful description of it in the beginning of his "Lionizing value and amounted to nothing because each ot the hundred Murderers," wherein the fortune teller starts her reading with, was coupled up with an opposing defect which took the effec­ "You have had much trouble, some joy, some good fortune, tiveness all out of it. (Neider 1959) some bad." Further, he was aware of how phrenologists had According to Twain, Fowler was willing to commit himself on used such generic readings to appease their clients. In his auto­ one quality: "However, he found a cavity, in one place; a cav­ biography, he describes the phrenologists visiting Hannibal in ity where a bump would have been in anyone else's . That his youth: cavity, he said was all alone, all by itself, occupying a soli­ It is not at all likely, I think, that the travelling expert tude, and had no opposing bump, however slight ever got any villager's character quite right, but it in elevation, to modify and ameliorate its is a safe guess that he was always wise enough to furnish his clients character charts that perfect completeness and isolation. He would compare favorably with George startled me by saying that that cavity Washington's. It was a long time ago, represented the total absence of the and yet I think I still remember that sense of humor!" no phrenologist ever came across a skull in our town that fell much Twain states that this same short of the Washington stan­ defect was the only notable devi­ dard. This general and close ation of his character from the approach to perfection ought A generic when similar tests were to have roused suspicion, per­ haps, but I do not remember done of palmistry, involving that it did. It is my impression mailing an anonymous pho­ that the people admired tograph or print of his palm, phrenology and believed in it to noted palmists in London and that the voice of the doubter was not heard in the and New York. Of eighteen land. (Neider 1959) readings, humor was men­ tioned only twice, and then Forearmed with a knowl­ only to note a definite lack edge both of phrenology and thereof. the tricks of con artists, he per­ Twain returned to Fowler formed a simple single-blind reli­ three months later and sat for a ability test. In 1872 or 1873, Twain second reading, this time identify­ visited Fowler's London office and ing himself. On this occasion, the paid for a reading using a pseudonym. reading differed greatly: "Once more It is unclear whether he attempted to dis­ he made a striking discover)'—the cavity guise his physical appearance, and whether was gone, and in its place was a Mount he wore his trademark white suit. As his likeness Everest—figuratively speaking—-31,000 feet had been used in advertising, such cautions would high, the loftiest bump of humor he had ever encoun­ have seemed prudent, yet Fowler gave no indication that he tered in his life-long experience!" recognized Twain. The result was in keeping with his expec­ It should be mentioned, however, that this was only a sin­ tations of a cold reading: gle-blind test, with a subject predisposed to be hostile to phrenology. It is possible that on his second visit, Twain may Fowler received me with indifFerencc, fingered my head in an have conducted himself in a more jovial and humorous man­ uninterested way, and named and estimated my qualities in a bored and monotonous voice. He said I possessed amazing ner. However, such attempts at deception were not unknown courage, and abnormal spirit of daring, a pluck, a stern will, a to the Fowlers, and they claimed to have seen easily through fearlessness that were without limit, I was astonished at this, such deceptions before. and gratified too; I had not suspected it before; but then he In addition, Twain's memory of the reading may have been foraged over on the other side of my skull and found a hump flawed. Madeline B. Stern, literary historian and definitive there which he called "caution." This hump was so tall, so mountainous, that it reduced my courage-bump to a mere biographer of the Fowlers, claims that Twain's terminology hillock by comparison, although the courage bump had been (i.e., "bumps" and "cavities") is inconsistent with that so prominent up to that time—according to his description of employed by the Fowlers. She further doubts that Lorenzo it—that it ought to have been a capable thing to hang my hat Fowler, known for his prodigious memory, would have forgot­ on; but it amounted to nothing, now in the presence of that ten Twain's features in three months. Matterhorn which he called my Caution. He explained that if that Matterhorn had been left out of my scheme of character Yet Twain claims to have kept the charts of the two read­ I would have been one of the bravest men that ever lived— ings. (For an additional fee, the Fowlers' would provide a chart possibly the bravest—but that my cautiousness was so prodi­ of one's phrenograph.)

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER lanuary/febtuaty 2002 35 I went to Fowler under an assumed name and he examined my revenues and increasing rents to move furdier up town and into elevations and depressions and gave me a chart which I carried less posh surroundings. The office in which Twain received his home to the Langham Hotel and studied with great interest last reading was no longer die tourist attraction of lower and amusement—the same interest and amusement which I should have found in the chart of an imposter who had been Broadway, but instead a more modest location on East Twenty- passing himself off for me and who did not resemble me in a First Street. Twain was certainly not one to kick someone when single sharply defined detail. I waited for three months and they were down, and perhaps it was out of compassion, and went to Mr. Fowler again, heralding my arrival with a card embarrassment for the Fowler family, still carrying on what bearing both my name and my nom de guerre. Again I carried must have appeared to him to be a foolish endeavor, that he away an elaborate chart. It contained several sharply defined details of my character, but it bore no recognizable resem­ refrained from mentioning their continuing efforts. blance to the earlier chart. (Neider 1959) Twain may have grown more charitable to those he diought gullible, for by this time he himself had sunk thousands of dol­ It is a minor tragedy to the history of skepticism that these lars and years of time into a typesetting machine that would charts do not appear to have survived. prove a failure. By the turn of the century, both Lorenzo and Twain, however, was not satisfied and in 1901 he sat for a Orson Fowler were dead, having spent the bulk of their lives final reading in New York City. Lorenzo Fowler had passed on advocating a mostly discredited theory. Perhaps Twain, by this time, and the business had passed to his sister, Charlotte described in that last phrenograph as being "a believer in Fowler Wells and his daughter, Jessie Allen Fowler. It was the lat­ humanity," "a keen critic of his own," and "of very strong ter who most likely gave me final phrenological reading of sympathies," saw too much of his own gullibility reflected in Twain. (It may have been one Edgar C. Bull, who by this time that of the struggling twentieth-century phrenologists, and owned controlling stock in the company and who would later wished to relegate their particular to humanity's past. claim to have examined Twain personally. Twain's own notebook Ultimately, both Twain and the Fowlers were reformers of a has the appointment listed with Jessie A. Fowler.) sort. The Fowlers' form of phrenology was a curiously American The analysis would later be printed in the Phrenological one. Unlike their European counterparts, they did not believe Journal and attributed to the editor. Whether by Jessie Fowler or that a person's character was unchangeable, but instead, diey Beall, the author is certainly a better literary critic then Lorenzo taught that a phrenological analysis could turn up defects in Fowler was. This last phrenograph of Twain focuses not on his character that could then be rectified through proper exercise of humor, but on his seriousness and concern for humanity, as the appropriate facility, which would then show up, like an ath­ demonstrated by his largely developed areas of Conscientiousness lete's improved musculature, on subsequent examination. Even and Benevolence. The phrenologist interprets Twain's humor as the most basic premise of phrenology—diat different areas of being merely habitual and a means to die end of his greater social the brain correspond to different functions—has been held to concerns. Perhaps die editor possessed a greater facility at be true, and is a foundation of modern neuroscience. Their phrenological analysis than Lorenzo, or perhaps he or she merely tragic flaw, of course, was the relatively arbitrary assignment of had a better knowledge of Twain's writing. Significandy, in die diese functions to areas, and the belief in the corresponding almost thirty years that had passed since Twain's first reading his shape of the skull. Had they die ability to look at this premise work had matured, and his more serious work was much more and compare it objectively to controlled data, perhaps they well known to die general public. His scathing critique of would have been spared such a long exercise in futility. American imperialism, "To the Person Sitting in Darkness," had But as to gullibility, or intuition, many of the causes and been published within the previous year. ideas championed by the Fowlers were later vindicated, such as Though this analysis was printed. Twain never commented the literary work of Whitman, the feminist ideals of Bloomer, or on it publicly. In fact, when in 1906 Twain was asked to con­ the concrete construction techniques of Orson Fowler. And tribute to a symposium on phenology, he mentioned his indeed, many of Twain's, such as his typesetting machine, childhood experiences in Hannibal, and his test of Lorenzo proved fruitless. However, unlike the Fowlers' largely uncritical Fowler in London, but did not mention his most recent expe­ acceptance of most innovations which fell within the penumbra rience in New York. Madeline B. Stern speculates about the of "progress" and "reform," Twain remained critical of both the reason for this omission: "Perhaps the analysis had been too status quo and its reforms, judging each on its own merits. telling, the hint at his 'tragic character' too disturbing. Perhaps Twain's snare of Fowler can be seen as an indictment of too Mark Twain balked at disclosing his abiding fascination phrenology as a science, or of Fowler as a quack. But ultimately with the pseudoscience he had scoffed but whose persistent it may be, like the medieval maid who believed pigs to be nobles, lure he could not resist" (Stern 1971). an embarrassment to humanity itself, that ones as intelligent and Perhaps instead the phrenologists were die beneficiaries of sincere as the Fowlers could be self-deluded for a lifetime. Twain's benevolence. By 1906, phrenology's star had fallen far from its heyday when Twain first went head-to-head widi References Lorenzo. At this point, many no longer considered phrenology Neider, Charles (cd.) 1959. The Autobiography of Mark Twain. New York: a legitimate science, and America was now looking to die most Harper. recent European import, die emerging field of psychoanalysis, Stern, Madeline B. 1969. Mark Twain had his head examined. American Literature. March. to explain human behavior. As die fortunes of the Phrenological 1971. Heads and Headlines: The Phrenological Fowlers. Norman, Institute had decreased, dieir offices were forced by failing Oklahoma: University of Oklahoma Press.

36 January/February 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Three Skeptics' Debate Tools Examined

Occam's razor, assigning burden of proof and Sagan's phrase about extraordinary claims are often misunderstood. In a debate it always pays to know why these tools work. ALVARO CASO

very skeptic should have a toolbox full of debate gad­ gets to help and guide him or her when confronted by Ebelievers of all flavors. This box should include a burden-of-proof compass. It's a useful gizmo that points to whoever has to prove his or her claims. It should be well cal­ ibrated; else it tends to always point away from you. You will also need a razor, by Occam, to cut through the boneless lard of unnecessary entities. It should be sharp—unnecessary entities are soft but they can be thick. There are other fine precision instruments, but if you want to be on the cutting edge of skeptic technology you will want the latest rage: a Sagan balance. This fine instrument is designed to measure how extraordinary a claim is, because you should not be

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Janu»cy/Febfuafy 2002 37 satisfied by a proof that is less extraordinary than the claim it Occam's Razor purports to prove. Let's start with the venerable razor. Why exactly should we Thus armed, you are ready to charge bravely into the prefer Theory A to Theory B whenever Theory A is more world, ready to tackle any irrational member of your commu­ economical? nity. But be careful, for sooner or later you are bound to run I have found that the most frequently quoted reason is that into an old goat like myself who will take your tools to task. nature is parsimonious; that it "prefers" an economy of means. Every time you pull out your balance and say, This is at best a very peculiar metaphysical claim, and a bad "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof," I will put one. If this is taken to be "an axiom of reason" and no further your balance on mine, replaying, "Say, that's an extraordinary justification is offered, it is indeed no better than faith, for it claim . . . Got proof?" Every time your compass points at me is certainly not self-contradictory to deny it. I'll produce one that points at you, by stating that you have When this is pointed out, many fall back to the softer the burden of proving that the burden is mine. And every empiricist idea that we know by induction that nature in fact time you pull out your Occam's razor, I will pull mine, ask­ is economical in its means. However, this seems to me just ing if your razor is not really a superfluous entity, which plain false. I find nature to be rather exuberant: There are mil­ should be cut away. Would you be ready to justify the use of lions upon millions of stars in each galaxy of which there are your tools? millions. Every day several new species are discovered and usu­ My sad experience debating in electronic chat-rooms, e-mail ally more than one compete for the same ecological niche. lists, classrooms, and elsewhere, is that not many would be. But Many organisms reproduce by the hundreds or even thou­ as faith-mongers are quick to point out, if skeptics cannot jus­ sands, so a few will reach adulthood. Organisms often have tify rationally their views, they are no better than those who more than enough organs to survive (two kidneys, two lungs, proudly take their claims on faith. So let's take a closer look at etc., when you can live with one of each). Organisms repro­ each of them. If my analysis is wrong, arguing against me will duce by means of a genetic code that has large sections that clarify your own ideas, thus sharpening your tools. encode nothing. There are more than a hundred elements, most of which are pretty stable. There are several dozens ele­ Alvaro Caso is a lecturer at the Facultad de Filosofia y Letras of mentary particles. If you are partial to superstring theory, you the Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico. He has taught will need no fewer than ten dimensions. . . . Nope, nature is courses on contemporary problems of ethics and on informal logic not simple. and critical thinking. He can be reached at alvaro But if that's the case, why should we prefer economical the­ caso@hotmail. com. ories? Shouldn't we indeed cut away the razor? On the

38 January/February 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER contrary, it is precisely because we find nature to be complex rance. This ensures our theories are incomplete, but cor­ that we should prefer simple theories. rectable. And that is as good as we can get with our epistemo- Suppose we had an epistemic apparatus (sense organs and logical apparatus. brain connections) that allowed us to apprehend in all its Lets now take a look at the next item in your toolbox. complexity any part of nature that we cared to pay attention to. Nature might appear to us boringly simple, but there In investigating how the world is, it is would be no question about preferring simple theories to complex ones. We could essential to be aware not only of what state how nature is in all its complex detail we know, but of what we do not know. immediately. But we cannot do that. Instead we start Occam's razor, in preventing us from by noticing certain regularities, constant going beyond the simplest description conjunctions, as Hume would say, patterns of events. We first posit a causal connection possible, is a methodological tool that between the events, but often have no clue helps point out our ignorance. as to how those regularities occur. Then, with hard work, we may posit laws describ­ ing how regular those regularities are, but we may be com­ pletely in the dark as to what the mechanisms behind those The Burden-of-Proof Compass regularities are. Then if we are lucky, we may perhaps glimpse Who does your burden-of-proof compass point to? Many have the mechanism, by pointing to finer regularities that had gone a faulty model, that points to whomever makes a positive unnoticed before, but again may have no clue as to how the claim. That is, it assigns the burden of proof to subject A if new regularities behave, etc. That is, we learn about the world subject A claims X and subject B claims not-X, regardless of by refining what we already know. the content of X. This is clearly a mistake about the nature of For instance, we all learn rather quickly that unsupported language, for most claims, if not all, can be worded so as to objects fall to the ground. But it was no walk in the park to include a "not" in their formulations. For instance, "gold describe how they do so. Intellectual giants like Aristotle and atoms have seventy-nine protons," which would count as a Aquinas got it wrong. Galileo started getting it right and "positive claim," can be reformulated as "gold atoms have no Newton did a brilliant job which Einstein tweaked a bit. more and no less than seventy-nine protons" thus making it a However, Newton himself confessed explicitly that he had "negative claim," two negative claims, actually. If that were no idea how gravity works, and was in fact not pleased with how quality burden-of-proof compasses worked, everybody the idea of action at a distance. Along came Einstein and would word his or her claims in negative form, avoiding the refined Newton's descriptions but we still have action at a burden of proof. So it is not. distance, and some are still not pleased. So is there an ele­ An equally faulty but somewhat more sophisticated model mentary particle for gravity? Or is it a wrinkling of space points to whoever makes a claim that implies a "positive exis­ around matter? Invisible spiritual tentacles, perhaps? Maybe tential claim." This seems to solve the difficulty because both none of the above? Imagine Newton had posited that objects formulations above imply the same existential claims. The are held to each other with perfectly elastic, unbreakable mechanism behind this compass model is based on the idea threads so thin that they cannot be detected. Newton's the­ that negative existential claims cannot be proven. Since it ory would be worse. Clearly it is not good practice to posit would be irrational to ask someone to do something that can­ hypotheses that have no good evidence in their support, but not be done, die one making the positive existential claim has that is not all. Had Newton talked about thin threads, the the burden of proof. But again, these compasses are faulty. theory's predictive success might lull us into thinking that If the burden-of-proof compass pointed to only those the thin-thread hypothesis is correct. In confessing his igno­ making existential claims, its use would be very limited. It rance about the nature of gravity, Newton pointed the way would leave us in the dark about who has the burden of for future research. We still do not know for sure what grav­ proof when no existential disagreement exists. For instance, ity is, but some of the best are working on some "gold atoms have seventy-nine protons" implies that there is interesting hypotheses. And it is important that they are gold, that there are atoms, and that there are protons. It also working on them; if we thought we knew what gravity is, implies that those atoms that have seventy-nine protons they might not be. make up the stuff we call gold, but that is not an existential In investigating how the world is, it is essential to be aware claim. Now suppose along comes Professor Mad Chemist, not only of what we know, but of what we do not know. claiming that gold atoms have seventy-eight protons instead Occam's razor, in preventing us from going beyond the sim­ of seventy-nine. We would intuitively want to say the burden plest description possible, is a methodological tool (certainly of proof is on Mad Chemist, yet we cannot pin it on him. not a metaphysical dictum) that helps point out our igno­ His claim implies that there is gold, that there are atoms, and

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2002 39 that there are protons, but the disagreement is that according wrong and X does exist after all, so that's no proof that X does to Mad Chemist, atoms that have seventy-eight protons not exist. But it's not cheating. Look at all the evidence there make up the stuff we call gold. But again, that is not an exis­ is for the existence of atoms (a positive claim of existence). It tential claim, so he wouldn't have the burden of proof. is equally dependent on the correctness of some accepted the­ Furthermore, Mad Chemist might get nasty and argue that ory or other. All proof, including that of positive claims of whoever says gold has seventy-nine protons is claiming the existence, is theory dependent. Of course, this means that proofs are never 100 percent certain, but that is as they should be, because certainty is unattainable. Back to the burden of proof. We arc now Theories are confirmed with each successful in a position to see what the correct mech­ experiment, each accurate prediction, each anism for a quality compass should be. A good burden-of-proof compass should satisfactory explanation. An established theory point to whoever makes a claim that con­ does not have the burden of proof because it tradicts established theory—one that goes against the best evidence accrued. The rea­ has already been (tentatively) proven. son is simply that theories are confirmed with each successful experiment, each accu­ rate prediction, each satisfactory explana­ tion. An established theory does not have existence of one more proton than he is, so the burden of the burden of proof because it has already been (tentatively) proof is on sane chemists. Not good. proven. A claim that goes against established theory would A second objection against the idea that the burden-of- have to not only be proven, but preferably either subsume in proof compass points to the one making the positive existen­ corrected fashion the previously established theory, or offer tial claim is that a cursory glance at the history of science some explanation as to why it seemed to work. reveals that is not so. There are many examples of nonexis­ A word of warning: It is not always easy to determine what tent entities that had to be proven not to exist. Phlogiston is the best evidence is. Worse, it is not always easy to determine perhaps the best-known example, along with the nonexistent what the data is evidence for or against. So be prepared to element "Caloric," which supposedly accounted for the engage in detailed factual and logical debates, because your behavior of heat, but there are many others. So no, your burden-of-proof compass is liable to get you into uncharted compass should not point to the person making a positive territory rather than out of it. claim of existence. The above considerations show that the basic mechanism Sagan's Balance of these compasses is faulty; the fact is that you can prove a Let's move now to Sagan's Balance. On one hand, the idea negative existential claim. The supposed asymmetry between that exttaordinary claims require extraordinary evidence proving a negative existential claim and a positive one is so seems . . . extraordinary, to say the least. We would want to widespread that it may be worth elaborating a bit. It is thought say that we are fair, that we judge any claim strictly on the that if you are wondering whether entity X exists, you go look­ force of the evidence for or against it, no matter if it is ordi­ ing for X. If you find an X, then that is that, you have proven nary or extraordinary, boring or outrageous. Any claim needs its existence, while if you go looking for X and do not find an good solid evidence to be proven, no more, no less. On the X, you just proved X is not where you looked for, but not that other hand, suppose you see a car moving down the street. X does not exist. But things are not really that simple. First of That is good solid evidence for there actually being a car on all, you may have a theory that predicts X must appear under the street. Now suppose you see a pink semitransparent ele­ certain circumstances; if it doesn't appear it doesn't exist. Or phant with green freckles walking down the street. Why is through theoretical considerations you can limit the number that not good evidence for there being such a beast on the of places where to look, so that if X does not appear in any of street? The evidence is the same for each. So what do we do, those places, it doesn't exist, because it won't appear elsewhere. are we fair (taking each observation at face value) or com- Or, you may have some theoretical idea of the effects X should monsensical (dismissing the flimsy pachyderm as a prank, a produce; no effect, no X. If you have no such theoretical con­ publicity stunt, or even a faulty brain)? straints, if you are really supposed to look for X in every nook To answer this question we need to look at what we con­ and cranny of the universe, you probably have no theoretical sider extraordinary. Thousands of previous instances of cars reason to suppose X exists in the first place, in which case it moving on streets tell us that cars usually populate streets, so goes with Occam's razor. much so diat a street devoid of cars is rather eerie. In contrast, But wait—you may say—that is cheating: If the theory we take the pink elephant sighting to be extraordinary because predicts X will appear here and it doesn't, it may indeed be past experience tells us that elephants rarely walk the streets, that X does not exist, but it may also be that the theory is are usually not pink, and vertebrates are usually not semi-

40 January/Februa.y 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER transparent. Therefore it is wrong to say, as I did before, that poltergeists haunting a house, we do not believe there is a 50- the evidence is the same for both. The elephant sighting is 50 chance of it being correct. Our real reaction, if charitable, extraordinary precisely because die cumulative evidence would is "hmm, probably not." We do tend to dismiss offhand such point to there not being such a beast, whereas it would point phenomena as human artifacts, and because of good theoreti­ to the car definitely being there. Thus, the fair and common- cal and inductive preconceptions. It is harmless because no sensical thing to do is discard the elephant as fictitious and one approaches any subject devoid of preconceptions; we keep the car as real. In this sense, Sagan's Balance, is "just" a interpret the world through our past experience. On the orJier tautology: those claims that arc extraordinary are precisely hand, "open mind" may also mean an unwillingness to change those that would require confirming evidence the most, our mind; to allow our preconceptions to dominate over the because what makes them extraordinary is past experience to evidence. In this sense, the accusation of just trying to debunk the contrary. But tautologies can be informative and useful. In is unjustified of the skeptical stance (though surely not of all this instance, Sagan's Balance reminds us that knowledge is a skeptics). It is not only possible, but the only rational option, cumulative interpersonal enterprise, not a personal, subjective, to approach a subject with a willingness to change one's mind and heroic quest. if the evidence warrants it, but with strong preconceptions These considerations may shed some light on that most about the outcome of our research. vexing question every despairing skeptic poses at some point: In order to change someone's mind, be it skeptic or "Why do believers believe in the face of recalcitrant evidence believer, one would have to change a large chunk of that per­ to the contrary?" son's web of belief. Part of the baggage of past experiences Past experience and theoretical considerations not only fur­ would have to be reinterpreted with wholly different explana­ nish explanations of our experiences, but also determine what tions, explanations that are alien to that person, forcing him or counts as a genuine experience and what we dismiss as an arti­ her to throw out some of that person's bona fide experiences fact, mirage, coincidence, hallucination, or conspiracy. We and reinstate some previously thrown out as artifacts. And that knit a highly interconnected web of beliefs that support one is a very difficult thing to do. another. Therefore, anyone who has spent a lifetime interpret­ The fact that theories are incomplete and inconclusive, that ing coincidences as poltergeists, demons, "forces," "energies," observation is theory-dependent, and that beliefs are tightly and the like will tend to explain a poorly latched window that knit into a web does not in any way imply that there is no way suddenly opens as a visitation from a spirit. Likewise, such a to decide between worldviews, much less that all theories are person will dismiss or explain away any and all evidence to the equally good, or that the scientific narrative is just one among contrary. After all, that is the rational thing to do given that many possible ones, or any such nonsense. On the contrary, it persons epistemological baggage. is precisely because knowledge is tentative and correctable that That is also why skeptics are often accused by believers of we must check and double-check our explanations, and cast, just trying to debunk, instead of having a truly open mind. from time to time, a doubtful glance at our pet theories. The accusation trades on the ambiguity of the phrase "open But this does mean diat there are no knockout punches in mind." It often means approaching a subject with no precon­ epistemology. The only way to proceed is one on one, ceptions. In this sense, the accusation is correct but harmless. infinitely patient rational debate . . . with sharp, well- It is correct because when confronted with a claim of, say, calibrated, evidence-based debate tools.

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SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2002 41 Mickey Mouse Discovers the 'Real' Atlantis

PAUL S. HARDERSEN

n anticipation of its most recent ani­ viewees on the show described the as a locus for civilizations on both sides mated movie, Disney Enterprises philosopher's vision of Atlantis as a kind of the Atlantic to visit and conduct Iand ABC Television aired a reality- of paradise and "perfect civilization." trade. Similarities in different civiliza­ based television show (Voyage to Atlantis: Robert Sullivan, a senior editor from tions on both sides of the Atlantic— The Lost Empire, on Sunday, June 10, Time magazine, stated, "It [Atlantis] was from pyramids and their construction 2001) that boasted of "proof" of the the best and the brightest of Earth at that techniques to archaeological finds and existence and discovery of the mythical time...an advanced civilization . . . DNA testing—were used to bolster the island of Atlantis. Hosted by actors Tom something of an Eden on Earth." so-called "Trans-Atlantic Connection" Skerrirt and Melissa Joan Hart, viewers Descriptions from several other "experts" that suggests that the civilization of were told that Atlantis has been found painted a scene of an idyllic, technically Atlantis spread to the lands along the and that the lost civilization had a pro­ advanced civilization that was destroyed Atlantic Ocean. found impact on human civilization. because they were living in a way that Comments by several of the intervie­ The evidence brought forth in the displeased their gods. More paraphrasing wees, including three authors of different show included reliance on the writings from Plato told of the people of Atlantis Atlantis books, described recently found of Plato about Atlantis, the similarities becoming "debased," "decadent," "arro­ artifacts that are a few thousand years in the rituals and writings of different gant," and "rapacious." Evidently, old. These discoveries suggest, according cultures on both sides of the Atlantic destruction came quickly and the entire to the show, that the Atlantis civilization as evidence of the widespread impact island society sank in a day. was much more technologically of the Atlantian civilization, seemingly Besides die storybook-like features of advanced than previously depicted. The "advanced" technology that has been Plato's writings and the very moralistic show pointed to societies with flushing found from ancient times, and recent tones used, the assumption that Atlantis toilets, hot and cold running water, an expeditions that claim to have found was a real place and civilization is far ancient "computer," batteries, electricity, Atlantis. from certain. According to Joseph and possibly even aviation. Specific refer­ Much of the beginning of die show Manning, an assistant professor of clas­ ences were presented to the "Baghdad dealt wiuS a discussion of Plato's concep­ sics at Stanford University, "... die story Battery" that may have been used for tion of Atlantis in The Republic and is a fiction intended to instruct electroplating, the 2,000-year-old other works. Although Plato was a Dionysius II of Sicily of what would "Antikythera mechanism" used for astro­ philosopher, there was an implicit happen if he continued on his political nomical observations, and pyramid wall assumption in the discussion that Plato course . . ." (personal communication). drawings of objects that are claimed to is referring to an actual place. Para­ Nevertheless the show's use of Plato and be electric lights. phrasing Plato's writings, several intcr- the "lessons" from the Atlantis story The last part of the show dealt with played heavily throughout the show. other potential locations for Atlantis, Paul Hardersen is a Ph.D. graduate stu­ such as the Azores, the mid-Atlantic dent in the Department of Space Studies, The "Evidence" Ocean, and die island of Thera. All of University of North Dakota, Grand Forks, Much of die show was spent presenting diese ideas were dismissed, with empha­ ND 58201. He is the author of The Case evidence of Atlantis as an "economic sis on removing die Minoan civilization for Space (1996). powerhouse" around 9600 B.C., serving on Thera (Santorini) as die likely origin

42 January/February 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER of the Atlantis myth. Atlantis—revealed does not seem to exist. in 1901 does exist and is thought to have in the show to be none other than Many of die odier claims in the show performed astronomical calculations such Cuba—was said to have been destroyed have either been found to be hoaxes, are as showing the position of the Sun through the impact of a comet on or misleading, or have been exaggerated. A throughout die year, displaying die chang­ near the island. Evidence for this impact strong effort was made to convince view­ ing lunar phases, and indicating die posi- consisted of legends from American abo­ ers diat advanced technology existed rions of bright stars and constellations rigines and the Carolina Bays—assumed long before our time, However, a little (Price 1959). Although considered to have to be impact craters from the comet. research shows diat examples cited in the been a relatively complex gearing mecha­ The show concluded with Taffi Fisher show are neither advanced technologies, nism compared to other devices at the Abt, director of the Mel Fisher Center, as we would commonly think of them, rime (Price 1959), it is a significant stretch suggesting that a treasure-hunting group nor anyrJiing beyond the capabilities of to say diat diis device compares favorably actually found the central city of Atlantis the people of diose time periods. One to today's technology. off the coast of Cuba. example put forward is a fraud: The Based on die descriptions of die mech­ stone cylinder with hieroglyphic symbols anisms and the materials used in dieir con­ Bad Science found in Davenport, Iowa, has been struction, it seems plausible that die mech­ Critiquing die show from the viewpoint extensively documented as a nineteenth anism could have been made widiin its of a physical scientist, the common century fraud (McKusick 1991). cultural context. However, die show did notion that Atlantis "sank" is geologi­ Anodier factual lapse in die show not consider this alternative view. Instead, cally implausible; islands simply do not involves the use of DNA testing of die audior of Lost Cities of Atlantis, David float on the ocean's surface. Egyptian mummies that purportedly Hatcher Childress, claimed that finding The use of a comet impact as a found traces of nicotine and cocaine from the Antikythera mechanism was "like destruction mechanism, coupled with die remains of die mummies. The show finding a jet airplane in the tomb of King the show's claim that this impact had claimed diat this finding is inconsistent Tut." Not to be outdone, die next scene global implications and caused Earth to widi die knowledge diat coca and tobacco immediately showed Hart, who strongly come out of the Ice Age, is not sup­ were only found in die Americas at that suggested that—because of the so-called ported by any physical evidence. A cur­ time. While stating diat coca and tobacco advanced ancient technology presented in sory look at the geologic history of Cuba plants were only found in die Americas is the show—it was quite reasonable to diink shows no evidence for the expected geo­ correct, DNA testing does not have the diat ancient civilizations had die capability logic deposits that would easily be found ability to detect compounds such as nico­ of flight. The evidence? Two "petroglyphs" if a sizeable impact had occurred on or tine and cocaine. DNA typing or finger­ in South America that Hart claimed can near the island only 12,000 years ago printing uses sequences of unused DNA only be seen from the air. (Palmer 1945). strands to identify individuals. A large, geologically young impact A "Roman terra cotta head" was used Media Irresponsibility crater would be fresh and would quite to imply that trans-Atlantic crossings in Emerging from die half-trudis and mis­ likely have been found by now, as the ancient times were more frequent and leading statements, larger issues must be ocean floor has been globally imaged at widespread than previously known. explored. The first involves die responsi­ high resolution. However, scholarly research only sug­ bility of the media when it comes to airing As supporting evidence, the Carolina gests that the head is evidence of the shows diat come across as documentary Bays and their presumed cometary occasional, possibly accidental, Atlantic and "reality-based" productions. The impact origins were brought forth to crossings made by some Old World ves­ unchallenged claims of shows such as diis bolster the notion of an impact near sels (Hristov and Genoves 1999). One can be easily accepted by an audience diat Cuba. Scientific investigation of the Bays interpretation suggests the head to be of is not used to questioning audioriry or has been conducted since the 1930s. A Roman origin and made between the employing dieir critical thinking skills. good overview of the current state of second and third centuries A.D. (Hristov Television networks should be held to a knowledge of large impacts can be found and Genoves 1999). This find is still the higher standard of accountability, but it is in the work of French (1998). Terrestrial subject of debate widiin the archaeologi­ also die responsibility of the viewers to be explanations for the Bays seem to be cur­ cal community, but that controversy has more skeptical of their television pro­ rently more prevalent as seen in the work nothing to do with the "fantastic specu­ grams. of Grant et al. (1998). Even if the lations" (Hristov and Genoves 1999) Another issue deals with how docu­ Carolina Bays were authentic impact made about transoceanic crossings—one mentary television shows are created, craters, it would be difficult to use diem of which involves Atlantis. edited, and produced. Based on personal as corroborating evidence of an impact The ancient, 2,000-ycar-old "com­ communications with some of the off the coast of Cuba where die main puter" found off die coast of Antikythera people interviewed for the ABC/Disney

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2002 43 Atlantis show, it seems likely that at least Disney, less than a week before the Handbook of Shock-Metamorphic Effects in some of them were not accurately opening of the animated movie of the Terrestrial Meteorite Impact Structures. LPI Contribution No. 954, Lunar and Planetary informed concerning the content, pur­ same name, suggests that ABC/Disney Institute, Houston. pose, and conclusions of this show. Some wanted to whet the appetites of the Grant, J.A., M.J. , and B.E. Taylor. 1998. stated that they were interviewed for moviegoing public. New constraints on the evolution of Carolina Bays from ground-penetrating radar. Geo- hours on a wide range of subjects, only to In summary, the efforts by ABC morphology 2 (3-4): 325-345. be later edited down to sound bites that Television and Disney Enterprises to Hristov, R., and S. Genoves. 1999. Mesoamerican were taken out of context and used solely "prove" that they have found Atlantis evidence of pre-Columbian transoceanic con­ tacts. Ancient Mesoamerica, 10: 207-213. to promote the overall purpose of die tele­ have fallen short. The evidence cited in Manning, Joseph. 2001. Personal communication. vision show. For example, Joseph this show is weak, open to alternative McKusick, Marshall. 1991. The Davenport Manning said, "I thought I was doing a interpretations, suffers from plausibility Conspiracy. Ames: Iowa State University Press. serious documentary on Atlantis . .., Melton, RA., and W. Schriever. 1933. The arguments, and is either misleading or Carolina 'Bays'—Are They Meteorite Scars? [but] I got sliced to bits and was used as a fraudulent. Though ABC and Disney The Journal of Geology 41(1): 52-66. lead in to suggest that the Egyptians had may claim diat the show is nothing but Palmer, R.H. 1945. Outline of the geology of electricity, among other nonsense!" (per­ "entertainment," it again raises the issue Cuba. The Journal of Geology 53(1): 1-34. Price, D.J.S. 1959. An ancient Greek computer. sonal communication). Taffi Fisher Abt of media responsibility when they air Scientific American, 200(6): 60-67. said that she "never implied it [Atlantis] television shows that make incredible Prouty. W.F. 1952. Carolina Bays and their origin. was near Cuba. ... That was an assump­ claims without substantial, verifiable, Bulletin of the Geological Society of America 63(1): 167-224. tion made by the shows producers" (per­ and supportable evidence. Regional Geophysics Section, Natural Resources sonal communication). Canada, www.gdcinfo.agg.emr.ca/toc.html?/ Of course, money is the primary References crater/world_craters.himl. "Solanales" Encyclopedia Britannica Online. motivating factor for airing the show. Its Abt. Taffi Fisher. 2001. Personal communication. http://search.eb.com/bol/topic?cu= 120834&S appearance on ABC, which is owned by French, B. 1998. Traces of Catastrophe: A ctn=2(AccessedJuly8.2001). •

Atlantis Behind the Myth: No Way, No How, No Where

KEVIN CHRISTOPHER

cholars and skeptics who would the Timaeus and die Critias. Before Plato, dialogue Critias, he continues his account concede diat there is any fact at all there are absolutely no references in any of Atlantis, giving further details about Sbehind the Atlantis legend usually literature anywhere to the alleged civiliza­ the origins of the society, die geography, argue diat the ancient Greek philosopher tion, an absence from the literary and and the culture. The dialogue then cuts Plato has dimly recalled a Bronze cata­ mythological traditions of ancient Greece off abrupdy. This break is taken to coin­ clysm in die Aegean Sea, either on Crete that speaks volumes. cide with Plato's death. or Santorini. Yet all the evidence shows In the Timaeus, Plato presents a dia­ In die Timaeus, Critias claims that his that Platos Atlantis account is beyond a logue between Socrates, Critias, Hermo- grandfather, the elder Critias—by then doubt entirely fictional—a Utopian myth crates, and Timaeus. The latter three are ninety years old—heard the story from concocted to vividly illustrate Plato's obliged to repay Socrates for his masterly his own father, Dropides. Dropides in political philosophy. Atlantis is first men­ discussion of the ideal society in The turn heard the story from the revered tioned in two dialogues written by Plato, Republic by giving accounts of their own. Athenian poet and statesman Solon. Critias retells a story of Atlantis he claims Ultimately, Critias attributes the story of to have heard when he was ten years old. Atlantis back to priests of the Egyptian Kevin Christopher is Public Relations His grandfather—the elder Critias— city of Sais. He alleges diat Solon, during Director for the Committee for the relates this story to die younger Critias his travels in , met with diese cler­ Scientific Investigation of Claims of the and others at a poetry recital competition ics. The sages astounded him with an Paranormal He has degrees in classics and on Koreotis—"Children's Day"—during account from hoary antiquity about the linguistics from SUNY-Buffalo. the Athenian festival of Apaturia. In the lost Atlantean civilization. They told

44 January/February 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER how Athens waged war with Atlantis Atlantis (1999), Richard Ellis aptly Plato's Use of Fiction 9,000 years before Solon's time—circa quotes late CSICOP Fellow L. Sprague Plato's dialogues expound his philosophy. 10,000 B.C., far older tJian any evidence De Camp: "You cannot change all the One of die ways in which he conveys his modern archeologists have thus far details of Plato's story and still claim to ideas is through the use of extraordinary found for civilization in the Mediter­ have Plato's story. That is like saying tales asserted as truth. Towards the end of ranean Basin, or anywhere in the world the legendary King Arthur is 'really' the Gorgias, for example, Socrates retells a for that matter. Cleopatra; all you have to do is to story of the Isles of the Blessed and Plato's account is unambiguous, plac­ change Cleopatra's sex, nationality, Tartarus (Greek versions of heaven and ing the existence of Atlantis at circa period, temperament, moral character, hell). At the end of The Republic, Socrates 10,000 B.C. It also clearly accounts for and other details, and the resemblance tells the story of Er, who, severely the alleged provenance of the Atlantis becomes obvious." wounded in battle, has a near-death expe­ story up to Plato: priests at the Egyptian Critias was quite clear about date of rience and comes to, finding himself on a city of Sais keep the historical written Atlantis; he was also clear about the loca­ funeral pyre (fortunately unlit). records of Atlantis lore for 8,000 years tion: it lay in the ocean outside of the As the philosopher Karl Popper notes before Solon hears the tale. Without Pillars of Hercules (Benjamin Jowett in the first volume of his two-volume question, there simply were no Egyptian translation): series The Open Society and Its Enemies writings, priests, nor civilization 10,000 [24e-25b] ... For the ocean tiiere was (1962), Plato sees legends about the ori­ years ago. at that time navigable; for in front of gins of a people, moral fortitude, and great the mouth which you Greeks call, as Relocating Atlantis achievements as socially useful indoctrina­ you say, "the pillars of Heracles," there tion took—noble lies. Clear examples of In 1969, Greek seismologist Angelos lay an island (i.e., Atlantis) which was larger than Libya and Asia together; this doctrine abound in The Republic. Galanopoulos first proposed that cata­ and it was possible for the travellers of [Republic 376] In this education, you strophic eruption of the volcanic island that time to cross from it to die other would include stories, would you of Santorini (Thera) in 1500 B.C. was islands, and from me islands to the not?... These arc of two kinds, true the source of Plato's Atlantis. After whole of die continent over against stories and fiction. Our education them which encompasses that veritable all, Santorini is a half-sunken caldera, must use both and start with fic­ ocean. For all that we have here, lying tion. . . . And the first step, as you and a buried city that perished in the widiin die mouth of which we speak, is know, is always what matters most, catastrophe—Akrotiri—was uncovered evidently a haven having a narrow particularly when we are dealing widi on the island by Greek archaeologist entrance; but that yonder is a real those who are young and tender. That ocean, and the land surrounding it may Spyridon Marinatos in 1967. He is the time when they are easily most rightly be called, in die fullest and moulded and when any impression we forced the date of the ancient Santorini truest sense, a continent.... Of the choose to make leaves a permanent eruption to jibe with Plato's story of lands here within the Straits diey ruled mark. (Desmond Lee translation) Atlantis by arguing that Plato had his over Libya as far as Egypt, and over Europe as far as Tuscany. So this host, dates wrong by a factor of ten: the lost being all gathered together, made an The context of the festival during civilization was submerged 900, not attempt one time to enslave by one sin­ which Critias hears the story from his 9,000 years, before Solon. According to gle onslaught both your country and grandfather is telling. The feast of ours and the whole of the territory Galanopoulos, the confusion of hun­ Apatouria involves the induction of widiin the Straits. . .. dreds and thousands was a mistake of infants, youths and wives into die phra- translation between Egyptian and try, or clan of families. This is where these Greek. Yet the fact remains that The claim of Atlantis's location is social units inducted their next genera­ Egyptologists have never found any fairly precise: The Mediterranean is the tions into the fold—the very context Egyptian texts that record the Atlantis "haven" with a "narrow entrance." where education through fictions pre­ legend, regardless of its alleged age, in Atlantis lies outside of the sented as fact is laid out in The Republic. Sais or anywhere else. Mediterranean "at a distant point" in There is no evidence whatsoever to Furthermore, Galanopoulos has the Atlantic ocean. Atlantis is not on indicate that Atlantis represented any real fallen into a typical pitfall. He changes Santorini. It is not on Antarctica, as place at any time. Where the story con­ the definition of Atlantis in order to Canadian librarian Rand Flem-Ath tains descriptions or events that resemble prove its existence. Equating Atlantis speculates. Nor is in modern-day historic happenings, it only does so to the with Santorini, Galanopoulos fiddles Bolivia, or, more specifically, a sub­ degree that any piece of fiction relies on with the location and the date, begging merged volcanic island in Lake Poopo experiences of reality. All of the evidence the very question of whether Plato's, on the Bolivian highlands, as John M. points to the story being one of Plato's rather than Galanopoulos', Atlantis Allen, author of Atlantis: The Andes noble lies: useful fictions used to make a really existed. In his book Imagining Solution, would have readers believe. point, not to refer to the past. LJ

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/february 2002 45 BOOK REVIEWS

Even Better the Second Time 'Round

JAMES E. ALCOCK

The Psychology of the Psychic (Second edition). By David Marks. , Amherst, New York, 2001. ISBN 1-57392-798-8. 336 pp. Softcover, $23.

he original Psychology of the parts of the book been cast aside to come into prominence since the original Psychic (Marks and Kammann, make room for new material? I feared book was published. T1980) is a classic in the field of rhat any fiddling with the original My aim in this review is in part to critical inquiry into parapsychological would only lead to disappointment. assess the value of the changes that have claims. It not only discussed and cri­ My fears were for naught. Almost all been made to the original. However, tiqued a wide range of supposed evi­ the original book has been retained with given that that book appeared over dence for the paranormal, but it also twenty years ago, many readers of this presented the authors' careful expose of review, unfamiliar with the original, will , described their own unsuc­ want to know about the value of the cessful efforts to replicate some of the PSYCHOLOGY new edition as a whole. Therefore, I key studies in , and —. of the have tried to provide information on reported their discovery of crucial flaws both old and new in this review. I have in the remote viewing research para­ rzuchic organized the review around the key digm. Perhaps even more important, themes of the book. that book was outstanding in its analysis Cognitive Psychology of cognitive factors that are likely to give rise to "psychic experiences"—factors The material on cognitive factors under­ such as population stereotypes, the lying supposed psychic experiences has power of coincidence, illusory correla­ been strengthened in this new edition by tion, and subjective validation. an excellent new chapter about the emo­ It was therefore with some trepida­ tional impact of personally relevant coin­ tion that I approached this review of the cidences, which Marks refers to as "per­ second edition of the Psychology of the 1 r '. o t, j {dillDI sonal oddmatches." This chapter, plus Psychic, authored by David Marks alone, David Marks, Ph.D. the information which derives from the and dedicated to his original coauthor, original, makes an important contribu­ the late Richard Kammann. How has he tion to our understanding of why so tampered with it, I wondered? Too only minor editing. The only major dele­ many, many people are convinced about many "second editions" are simply the tion is the material dealing with The the reality or the paranormal on the basis same old first editions with an extra Amazing Kreskin (two chapters), elimi­ of their own experiences, experiences chapter tagged on at the end, and with a nated on the grounds that Kreskin's "psy­ that seem to them to defy any rational few new references thrown in to suggest chic" magic act is no longer relevant to explanation. The teader is offered a valu­ freshness. Would this be the case with the study of the paranormal, a view able lesson in how to minimize the like­ this one? Or worse, have important shared by this reviewer. A full third of lihood of being misled by others' claims the material in the second edition is new, or by one's own experiences. James Alcock is professor of psychology at and it not only updates the original, but York University Toronto, and author of it presents a critical analysis of areas of Remote Viewing Parapsychology: Science or Magic? parapsychological research that have Still included in this book is the original

46 January/February 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER BOOK REVIEWS definitive critique of the Targ and series a given session fell, and that this names of significant participants in the Puthoff remote viewing (RV) studies information could cue the judges, who research, or to do his own independent that had at their outset persuaded many were given a set of targets in the order judging of the Stargate transcripts. Mark people, both within and outside para­ that they had been presented, to cor- concludes that, "In all probability, the psychology, that good evidence had recdy match die subject's descriptions to data collection procedures and the data finally been gathered that would estab­ the targets. Indeed, when Marks and themselves are faulty and do not support lish the scientific validity of psychic phe­ Kamman had their own research partic­ what is claimed for them. Unfor­ nomena. Those remote viewing experi­ ipants try to match which response went tunately, we will probably never know ments typically involved this procedure: with which target, they had no problem for sure" (82). A subject and an experimenter sat in a in doing so. However, when these cues room that had been constructed to be were edited out, such matching did not Uri Geller impervious to electromagnetic energy. A surpass a chance level. This was skeptical In the original edition, a full five chap­ second experimenter then travelled to a inquiry at its best, and through it, ters were devoted to the feats and target site, a geographical location that Marks and Kammann effectively exploits of Uri Geller, the "superpsychic had been randomly selected from a set demonstrated that the Targ-Puthoff of the seventies." All five chapters are of twelve possible targets. Once enough research had been so poorly controlled fortunately retained, virtually un­ time had elapsed for the second experi­ that their data could not be taken seri­ changed but for minor editing. Geller menter to reach the target site, the sub­ ously as evidence for the existence of had not only thrilled much of the world ject was asked to report whatever sensa­ paranormal processes. with his "psychic" powers, but he had tions he or she was experiencing. This In this second edition, in a new made considerable inroads in terms of procedure was repeated a number of chapter entitled "The Sloppiness persuading some members of the scien­ times, each time with a freshly selected Continues" (he doesn't mince words!), tific community—whom we might have target. At the end of the series of trials, Marks brings us up to date regarding been expected to know better—that his the transcripts of what the subject had subsequent research that attempted to feats were paranormal in nature. One of said on each trial were given to a group replicate the Targ and Puthoff findings. the key achievements of the book was to of independent judges, along with the Marks reports that, to this day, "Well- show how one can apply a version of the list of the targets that had been used, controlled experiments never find the control group, so commonly used in and the judges then visited each target RV effect, while poorly controlled experimental methodology, to the analy­ site and rank-ordered the subject's vari­ experiments nearly always do. Data sup­ sis of the claims of supposed psychics. ous descriptions in terms of how well pression, flawed methodology, and lack Marks and Kammann observed Geller they corresponded to the site. On this of replication lead to the conclusion that during his tour of New Zealand, but he basis, highly significant correspondences Targ and Putoff's RV effect was a cogni­ refused their invitation to submit to between descriptions and targets were tive illusion, an artifact of human error their proposed controlled tests, and so found, and this was the case for a num­ and wishful thinking" (68). they used what they called delayed con­ ber of different subjects. This should write "Closed" to the trol groups, groups of presumably Having suspected that the fly in the Targ and Puthoff era of parapsychologi- nonpsychic subjects who were ointment was in the judging procedure, cal research. instructed to attempt to perform a spe­ Marks and Kamman requested copies of Marks has added two chapters on cific psychic feat that had earlier been the original transcripts from Targ and other, more recent, remote viewing performed by Geller. For example, Puthoff, in order to see whether there research, focusing on the so-called whereas Geller astounded many people were cues in the transcripts that would "Stargate" research conducted between by his reproductions ot drawings con­ bias the judging. In this new edition, 1985 until 1995, under the direction of tained in sealed envelopes, the audiors Marks reports that now—twenty years parapsychologist Edwin May, and spon­ found that some of their subjects could later—this request has never been sored by the Defense Intelligence match Geller's performance, without answered, a serious omission on the part Agency (DIA) of the United States gov­ need of paranormal ability. (Obviously, of anyone claiming to be a scientific ernment. The thrust of the research was delayed control groups cannot be researcher. However, they were able to to try to demonstrate that remote view­ expected to rule out all fraud, because obtain these transcripts in a roundabout ing could be harnessed for intelligence- many fraudulent methods are known way, from a consultant to the project. gathering purposes. Marks finds good only to professional conjurers, and in They discovered that comments made reasons to be deeply troubled by the such cases, control groups would be by the experimenter to the subject, and Stargate research, not the least of which unable to match the performance of a which were included in the transcripts, was the refusal by May to allow him to psychic using such methods.) clearly indicated where in the overall have access to the raw data, or to the To these five chapters, Marks has

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2002 47 BOOK REVIEWS

added an additional chapter of new recently been garnering the attention of cal presentation is also much improved: material on Geller, unabashedly entitled some researchers, Rupert Sheldrake in This book is visually more attractive, "The Great Psychic Lie." This chapter particular. Marks reviews the available both in terms of the cover, the typeface, not only brings the reader up to date on research, and concludes that claims that and the quality of paper. More impor­ Gellers activities, but also addresses the people can detect unseen staring have tant, new headings have been inserted distortions and lies that characterize not been substantiated. into the material carried over from the what Marks calls "the new religion of In another new chapter, Marks dis­ first edition, providing an easier read, the paranormal," and provides tren­ cusses the supposed "sixth sense" of ani­ and, unlike its predecessor, this book has chant commentary on New Age religion mals diat reputedly helps them to find an index. in general. In Marks's view, this new reli­ their ways home after having been aban­ In conclusion, whatever your gion of the paranormal, ". . . is totally doned miles away, in unfamiliar sur­ approach to the paranormal—be it as fake. It has untrustworthy prophets, roundings. He concludes that there are skeptic, believer, agnostic—you should phony miracles, and foundations of many anecdotes but no solid evidence to read this book. For those who have the quicksand. Unproven claims cleverly support the psychic pet hypothesis. original, read the new chapters, both for mask the truth with false doctrines This is an excellent book—and I the information contained and for about natures workings that distort must say, it is actually an improvement Marks' style of writing ("So British!"). unsuspecting perceptions of reality. New on the original. Not only does die new For those unfamiliar with the original, Age prophets exhort their sheeplike fol­ material add to its value, but the physi- you have a treat waiting for you! lowers to carry out all sorts of home truths that beggar the imagination of any thinking person." Marks's style of Psychoanalysis: writing is a joy, and the price of the book is almost justified by that para­ Anything There? graph alone! PETER LAMAL

Other New Material How To Make A Paranoid Laugh: Or, What Is Psychoanalysis? Marks has added several other new By Francois Roustang (Translated by Anne C. Vila). chapters dealing with parapsycho- University of Pennsylvania Press, Philadelphia. 2000. logical research that has occurred since ISBN 0-8122-3525-8. 182 pages. Hardcover, $17.50. the original edition was publish­ ed. There is a chapter on Ganzfeld ome belief systems never die, such another benighted outsider? No. research, another paradigm that pro­ as creationism. Acceptance of Roustang is a distinguished French psy­ mised the breakthrough into scientific Sother belief systems declines, but choanalytic clinician and theorist. And respectability that parapsychologists they linger on indefinitely, witness psy­ he says diat the theoretical texts of psy­ have so long sought. This chapter choanalysis. choanalysis should unequivocally be focuses particularly on the controversy Many critics of psychoanalysis have classified as mythologies. Such texts do over the quality of the Ganzfeld argued that it is not a science, and they not help psychoanalysts in their practice research, including the famous will not get any argument about that "and they turn psychoanalysts into the exchange between Ray Hyman and from Francois Roustang. Says he: "If we faithful adherents of a sect whose obscu­ Charles Honorton in the Journal of wish to speak correctly of psychoanalytic rantism rivals that of some religions or Parapsychology, and the later exchange epistemology, we must recognize that political ideologies." What a stunning between Hyman and Daryl Bern in the our belief in no way helps to give the fic­ admission. Is there any other discipline pages of the prestigious Psychological tion [of psychoanalysis] a scientific in which foundational texts arc so deni­ Bulletin. Marks concludes that the status." For Roustang it is an "elemen­ grated by a member of the discipline? twenty-five years of Ganzfeld research, tary observation" that psychoanalytic How can there even be a discipline if like other parapsychological research theory is a mythology. Furthermore, this there are no texts to guide and promote before it, has failed to demonstrate the observation is systematically ignored in further development of theory and prac­ existence of any paranormal effect. psychoanalytic circles. tice? Roustang says that psychoanalysts Another new chapter is devoted to Another attack on psychoanalysis by "carefully avoid wondering about the psychic staring, the supposed phenome­ foundations of our knowledge." But non whereby people claim that they can P. A. Lamal is emeritus professor of psychoanalysts, in my view, are not "feel" when someone is staring at them psychology University of North Carolina- unique in that regard. from behind. This "phenomenon" has Charlotte, and a Carolina Skeptics member. In his discussion of the importance of

48 lanuary/February 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER BOOK REVIEWS

epistemology, Roustang uses the example• notion of cure, "it is now floating unan- today who were alive when Jesus uttered of the widely accepted "obvious fact" off chored." Elsewhere, Roustang asks these words—wandering and waiting the unconscious to point out that it is; where the effectiveness of psychoanaly- for his second coming. Gardner relates not an obvious fact. He says that most off sis lies. He says that this question is the different wanderings this myth has the time we forget, as Freud often did, basic and, "like all basic questions, it is taken through the ages. that the unconscious is a hypothesis. We: undoubtedly insolvable." It is thus not Another essay is entitled "The erroneously "assume it to be the effective! surprising that the chapter "The Incredible Flimflams of Margaret agent of all aberrant processes. And theni Effectiveness of Psychoanalysis" has Rowen." Margaret Rowen claimed to be ... we try to make it express itself.. . we! nothing to say about how effective psy- the God-chosen successor to Ellen White, establish die laws of its functioning, we! choanalysis is. Two points: The effec­ the Adventist leader and prophet. give it a theory." But all of this is episte- tiveness of psychoanalysis is assumed, Gardner adepdy reveals her claims to be mologically illegitimate. It is an episte- not demonstrated; and unlike other false and she a liar and con artist. The sad mological blunder, "a methodologicalI approaches to human behavior, psycho- story of Bert Fullmer, a long-time believer absurdity" to speak of knowledge of the! analysis assumes that the causes of any and proponent of Margaret Rowen, is the unconscious. The correct stance, says; efficacy it may have cannot be ascer- central character in a related but different Roustang, is not that Freud discoveredI tained. You cannot get much less scien- essay. Fullmer defended Rowen only to be the unconscious, but that "FreudI tific than that. But, says Roustang, "for shown as a complete fool—something he invented the unconscious in order toi the French facts don't have very much realized toward the end of his misled life. account for certain facts." importance; what matters is that the A third essay dealing with Margaret Cure, says Roustang, might have theory can retain its prestige." This Rowen is "The Comic Pratfalls of Robert served as "the functional index" in the: book is turgid and heavily metaphori­ Reidt." Reidt led a little band of Rowenite field of psychoanalysis. But since psy­ cal. In my view, it obscures the fact (as disciples in Long Island, New York. He choanalysis (at least of the Lacanian Gertrude Stein said of Oakland): led them to believe Rowen's date of variant) has been detached from the "There is no there, there." February 6, 1925, was the real date for Jesus' second coming. Since Jesus didn't show, he then predicted September of MARTIN Lucid Commentaries with 1925. Since Jesus didn't show then eidier, GARDNER he then predicted New York City would Something to Say be destroyed by fire from heaven on MARK DURM February 6, 1926. Nodiing happened on February 6, 1926, in New York City— From the Wandering Jew to William E Buckley, Jr. By Martin well, that is, there was no fire from WILLIAM F Gardner. Prometheus Books, Amherst, New York. 2000. heaven. Reidt then predicted the fire ISBN 1-57392-852-6. 350 pp. Hardback, $27. would hit the city in the early morning hours of February 12. It didn't, and Reidt faded into obscurity. "From time to time, when the foremost essayists. In this latest offering The final three essays are not about impulse sizes me, I sound off about of essays and book reviews, Gardner religious belief but literature. One deals topics of interest to me, and respond explains that "the topics of this rambling to requests for book reviews if I think with John Martin's Book, a forgotten 1 have something significant to say anthology are mainly attacks on bogus children's magazine. Anodier is about L. about a book." science and what I regard as religious Frank Baum, die author of the Oz superstition. books, and the final one is about o begins Martin Gardner in this Why does the Jew wander? Because Gernsback, the father of American sci­ book, his latest of many. We, the Jesus says in Matthew 16:27, 28 "Verily ence fiction. I'm glad the impulse seized readers, should always be thankful S I say unto you, There be some standing Martin Gardner to "sound off about when Gardner "sounds off" on topics here, which shall not taste of death, till [these] topics" also. and has "sometJiing significant to say" they see the Son of man coming in his The reviews of books are all very about any book. Gardners lucid style, kingdom." To Bible fundamentalists, enjoyable and educational. The topics eloquent wit, and carefully researched everything in the Bible must be literally run the gamut from physics to reincar­ writings makes him one of America's true—therefore, if Jesus said there were nation, to crystal balls, to Jim and "some standing" there who would wit­ Tammy Faye Bakker, to Christian Mark Durm is a professor of psychology at ness his second coming—then there Science, to the meme (which is suppos­ Athens State University Athens, Alabama. must be a Jew or Jews who are alive edly anything humans do or say that is

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2002 49 BOOK REVIEWS

not genetically determined but is trans­ author, events surrounding the publish­ ferred from person to person by imita­ ing of the book, and a thoroughly tion), to The Scarecrow of Oz, and finally researched commentary that gives the to the surprisingly very fundamentalist review a breath of life. faith of William F. Buckley, Jr. There are Even though some information is nineteen of them, and when Gardner repetitive (understandable since these writes a book review he does have essays and book reviews were originally "something significant to say" and each written at different times for different is much more than just a review. He publications), this latest book from tends to give a biographical sketch of the Martin Gardner is a good read.

Nibbli*»3* 1 Skepticism

In an effort to promote Brain - on the Half-Shell science and skepticism among all generations, the Committee BENJAMIN RADFORD for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal Nibbling on Einstein's Brain: The Good, the Bad and (CSICOP), is pleased to the Bogus in Science. By Diane Swanson. Annick announce the launch of Press, New York 2001. ISBN 1-55037-686. 102 the Young Skeptics Program. pp. Softcover, $ 14.95. The Web-based program is geared towards students, parents and educators. CSICORorg/youngskeptics he bar for children's and young section on further reading. adult's books dealing with criti­ Swanson draws upon sources as cal thinking and skepticism has diverse as Aesop's fables and mathe­ The goals of the Young T been dramatically raised with the recent matician/statistician John Allen Paulos Skeptics Program are: publication of Nibbling on Einstein's for examples, covering everything from • To promote science and skepticism within oil facets ot society and among Brain. This colorful and intelligent book failed doomsday predictions to the all generations. achieves a rare feat for science books: it of and • To provide multiple outlets for young horoscopes. Along the way Swanson people to learn and involve themselves makes skepticism and science interesting in science, skepticism, and critical to the lay reader. has plenty of cartoons and sidebars, Inquiry. Skepticism is not easy and the meth­ and "Your Turn" and "Always Ask" • To work with parents, teachers and blurbs to actively involve the reader in students In an etf ort to promote ods of science not always intuitive or sim­ learning, defend and odvance science ple. The concepts are derived from many skepticism. education, and encourage critical thinking in all areas of We. fields, including statistics, psychology, My greatest concern about this book • To help young people moke sense of and logic. Swanson has done science and is that potential readers will be turned the world by developing the tools and skeptics a great service by making logical off by the format and reject it as just a gathering the Information to navigate through the nonsense effectively. fallacies and critical thinking techniques kid's book. It is not. Though obviously • To nurture curiosity, wonder, and the accessible to a wide audience witfiout targeted to teens, adults will find imagination while sharing in the Nibbling on Einstein's Brain full of inter­ fascination of reality and the dumbing down the content. The chap­ excitement our universe has to offer. ters include Beware of Bad Science esting tidbits and useful reminders • To explore extraordinary claims and (telling good from bad science); Science about skepticism and the nature of sci­ investigate unexplained phenomena, ence. Nonetheless, if you're looking for a while enjoying ourselves in the process Watch (how science is done and the pit­ • To Inspire future generations to proudly falls to avoid); Media Watch (biased and great book or Christmas present to buy carry the torch of science and reason misleading news reporting); Mind Watch a child to foster critical thinking skills, and keep the flame burning bright for years to come. (mistakes in logic and self-deception); this is the one to get. and Winning Strategics (tips for using skepticism in everyday life). The book Disclosure: Nibbling on Einstein's Brain is ded­ For more information please icated to the Committee for the Scientific also features a glossary, index, quiz, and contact Program Director Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal, Amanda Chesworth at publisher of the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. (See the [email protected] Benjamin Radford is Managing Editor of sections on (he importance of unearthing and the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. disclosing biases, pages 19 to 21.)

50 January/February 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER NEW BOOKS

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SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2002 51 FORUM 'Geology Confronts Creationism' An Undergraduate Science Curriculum

MARK A. WILSON

In fact, we could call the Bible Earth and universe less than 10,000 At The College of Wooster we de­ "The History Book of the years old) and " veloped a course specifically for ad­ Universe. " It is the only 100% Theory" (SI, March/April 2001), which vanced geology undergraduates to con­ accurate history book in the world! postulates that life is too complex to front creationist arguments and evi­ have appeared by chance alone. They dence in detail. Through this course -Ken Ham (2001) have shrewdly exploited the most effec­ these students learned the history of tive way to reach today's young people creationism and addressed the major Scientific creationism" is expe­ with their message, the World Wide arguments, particularly those associated riencing yet another revival in Web. "Scientific" creationists have suc­ with cosmology, paleontology, and the United States, and science ceeded in holding their ground with the interpretations of the rock record. The students are again poorly prepared to American public despite decades of course is relatively easy to teach because meet the intellectual and political chal­ debates with scientists: recent Gallup of the enormous amount of creationist lenge. It is time to add creationism, and polling shows that 45 percent of literature available, and it can be skeptical responses to it, directly to the Americans believe in a young Earth and adapted for advanced students in other undergraduate science curriculum. a literal Adam and Eve, a number that sciences as well. The creationist activism of the 1980s has not significantly changed in thirty The "Geology Confronts Crea­ was dampened by several significant years. Creationists have, through tionism" course was developed for stu­ court decisions, and creationists for the Intelligent Design theory, even managed dents who completed at least two most pan withdrew from the public to gain significant footholds in main­ courses in geology. To thoroughly assess arena to concentrate on home schooling stream academic institutions. creationist arguments and evidence, stu­ and other activities out of the main­ Science students in college tend to be dents needed a moderate amount of sci­ stream. The 1999-2000 Kansas episode, poorly informed about the concepts and entific background. While the course where the state school board excised con­ politics of scientific creationism, yet was explicitly designed to analyze the ventional evolutionary theory and the many are continually confronted by fel­ geological aspects of creationism, its Big Bang from proficiency standards, low students, friends, and family about implicit purpose was to provide a thor­ now happily rescinded, showed a new their "beliefs" in organic evolution, a ough exercise in critical thinking, writ­ aggressiveness among creationists. Most long Earth history, and conventional ing, and oral expression. still share the goal of removing "the lie" of cosmology. They can usually explain the The course syllabus was posted on evolution from public schools and muse­ scientific concepts and evidence well the Web, where it still resides (Wilson ums, and they have adapted their tech­ enough, but are then surprised by the 2001). Each week we added two or three niques to the changing political and cul­ detail and sophistication of modern cre­ paragraphs of discussion and links for tural environments. ationist arguments against them. the next week's topic. Students could Creationists have managed to suc­ Science students do not have back­ access the latest information and ideas, cessfully pursue two separate and in ground in antiscience rhetoric, and so and go direcdy to creationist and scien­ some ways incompatible strands of anti- they commonly withdraw from conver­ tific sources. We also had a series of dis­ evolutionism: the traditional literal sations and debates, marveling at the cussion questions posted for each class interpretation of Genesis (and thus an irrationality of it all. Unfortunately, this period's material. Students were leaves the field to the pseudoscientists, required to provide written answers to Mark A. Wilson is a professor of geology at and it deprives the public of a full per­ these questions before each class. Several The College of Wooster in Wooster, Ohio. spective on the issues. persuasive essays of various types were

52 January/February 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER FORUM required during the semester. Each stu­ marily political and not an example of also learned that creationism is best dent completed an extensive research real scientific discourse. answered by making the "scientific" project for the class, assessing some The second event was a letter I sent claims of creationism public. detailed aspect of creationist geology. to the Answers In Genesis Web site pre­ Similar courses can easily be devel­ There were also midterm and final senting the geological argument that oped in other scientific and social scien­ examinations which were essentially in- carbonate hardgrounds, a common sed­ tific disciplines. Most scientists have for class writing assignments. imentary feature, demonstrate that the too long either ignored the pseudo- Sorting out primary creation models Phanerozoic rock record could not pos­ science surrounding their disciplines or to assess was a surprisingly difficult task. sibly be the result of a worldwide flood, supported particular scientific champi­ It is one thing to say that the Bible is the as believed by young Earth creationists. ons to fight the battles. It is time to "history book of the universe" (Ham Hardgrounds are my geological spe­ write our responses to irrationality 2001), bul quite another to move from cialty, so I made certain the letter was directly into the curriculum. tightly presented and well referenced. scripture to a scientific model which The online response by one of the does not appear to contradict it. References Answers In Genesis geologists was a Creationists are well experienced in All available online as of 7/31/01: model of scientific ignorance and arro­ Answers In Genesis. 2001. Statement of Faith. attacking conventional evolution and gant illogic (Walker 2001), showing stu­ www.answersingencsis.org/homc/area/about/ historical geology, but have difficulty faith.asp. dents (and many odiers who logged on) erecting their own models. All are ulti­ Gaines, R.J., and B.I. Johnson. 2001. the intellectual bankruptcy of a move­ Introduction: Understanding the Biblical dif­ mately forced to account for the appar­ ment mat must confine itself to a literal ference between the words "World" and "Earth." www.kjvbiblc.org/theworlds.html. ent vast distances in the universe; the interpretation of scripture. geological record, including fossils; the Ham, K. 2001. "Jurassic" dinosaurs? No mystery! www.answersingenesis.org/us/ncwslctters/ present and past distribution of ­ The most frequent comment by stu­ 0701lead.asp. isms; and the genetic history of life dents evaluating their experience in this Ross, H., and D. Gish. 1992. Hugh Ross and itself. It was not surprising to find that course was that it gave them confidence Duane Gish Debate the Age of the Earth and the Universe. Transcribed by W. Hamilton there are no comprehensive creationist in their abilities to discuss and debate www.talkorigins.org/faqs/gish-ross-dcbate. models, and the incomplete ones that die geological aspects of evolutionary html. exist arc hotly debated among creation­ theory, and that they need not fear the Walker, T. 2001. Are hardgrounds really a chal­ glib sophistries of scientific creationists. lenge to the global Flood? www.answersin ists. Students quickly learned that one of gcnesis.org/home/area/feedback/negarivel3- the primary political handicaps in the They could now approach creationism mar-2001.asp. creationism movement is this lack of with particular rhetorical skills and Wilson, MA. 2001. Geology 350 Syllabus arguments, rather than be surprised by ecial Topics: Geology Confronts conceptual unity. Compare, for exam­ Creationism) Spring 2001. www.wooster.edu/ it as most scientists eventually are. They ple, die bitter debates between the "old geology/Gco350mw/Geo350mw.html. D Earth" and "young Earth" creationists (Ross and Gish 1992), and the compli­ cated theology of the Christian Geology Ministry (Johnson and Johnson 2001) with the simplistic views of the Answers In Genesis organization (2001). Two outside events were important to the success of the course. Philip Johnson, the most public advocate of Intelligent Design theory, gave a talk at a local university. We attended as a class. Two of my students asked the only neg­ ative questions, calling him on his inter­ pretation of the Precambrian fossil record ("There are no fossils prior to the Cambrian Explosion," which is non­ sense) and asking his view on the age of the Earth ("I don't have a position on that"). Johnson's angry responses demonstrated better dian all his writing how the creation/evolution issue is pri­

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2002 53 FORUM

Explaining the Cheese

RALPH ESTLING

"And yet each denizen of each And hotly debated the matter. the air or the platter as the solution, the scale may perceive an appropriate The Orthodox said it came from the operant factor. But Total Absolute Air; universe with impeccable, but Nothingness, is, I can't help thinking, a The Heretics said from the planer. local, factual accuracy." pretty poor raw material for creating —Stephen Jay Gould Let's stan with something simple, like cheese or universes out of. So maybe the The Lying Stones of the universe, and go on to Maine later. Whole Shebangers and Multiversifiers are Marrakech The universe that we perceive has a on to something and bits and odd-bods radius and an age of about 14 billion of universes keep blasting their way into he quotation, near die end of light years. But, or so it is contended by existence from within the Whole Gould's essay Room of One's Own, some cosmologists, our little, local, Shebang Universe they are embedded in, Tthe last in die book, strikes me as neighborhood universe is just a mere so that our Cheese derives neidier from eminendy wise, as well as troubling, trou­ infinitesimal spatial and temporal blip in the air nor from the platter and its com­ bling in die sense diat it forces us to the Whole Shebang Universe or, as it is ing into being can only be explained by a diink, rarely a welcome exercise. sometimes called, Multiverse, that exists variety of inexplicable and indefinable Are things definable in any truly eternally and infinitely, beyond our per­ hypotheses, none of diem likely to be meaningful way, as factual, or must their ception, and conception, as far beyond as accurate. This puts a damper on things. fractal forms, die varying scales at which is the nature and relative scale of impor­ What it all boils down to is a question we view and consider diem, be held to be tance occupied by their cheese within of what, if anything, constitutes "appro­ paramount? Should we, and if so, how the Total Scheme of Things, as seen and priate scale" in determining local (or are we to balance die scales? What ought philosophized over by the cheesemites. non-local) factual accuracy. Does it even die level of our point of view be pitched As a heretic cheesemite of long-stand­ make any sense to inquire into what is at? What, to sum it up and demonstrate ing I am an implacable plattertudinarian the "real" length of Maine's (or Norway's the sort of dilemma we're faced with, is . . . within reason. For example, I'm not or any) coastline? For no matter how the true length of Maine's coastline? quite absolutely sure that all the cheese carefully and precisely we measure it, we All of you doubtless recall die problem got here by exploding into existence and can always get it more precise by running the cheesemites faced when confronted being from a previous state of total our tape along every bay, cove, boulder, with this question and die profound and nonexistence and nonbeing, for no rea­ stone, grain of sand, molecule, atom, often violent theological and philosophi­ son and caused by nothing at all but just proton, quark, and Planck length, until cal contention that raged among them kind of happening, you know, one of we reach the spacetime foam that the over die nature, origin, purpose (if any), diose things. . .. Of course, if this is the physicists assure us is down diere, beyond and teleological reckoning of their world, case, we can't righdy speak of a previous the 10" meter mark (I may be off by a the Cheese they inhabited: state, since time only began, got under few orders of minus magnitude so don't way, when the cheese Big-Banged itself The cheesemites asked how die quote me on diis). Cheese got there, from nowhere at all (for we can't talk of Of course, it's easy to argue that a previous space either), barging into lengths of space and time are entirely Ralph Estling writes from Ilminster. here. You see the problem. fictitious, that is to say dependent for Somerset, U.K. At least the cheesemites could point to their existence and meaning on us and

54 January/February 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER FORUM

the scale of our measuring devices. This light by gravity when observing a solarr means by which wc choose to measure it is what most people think Einstein eclipse on a little island off West Africa,, and the arbitrary scale those measure- said, making space and time entirely and for propounding the dual nature off ments take. This is so obvious it needs a human creations, things which don't physical reality, the reality of scales. Ai profound intellect to fail to see it. No really exist in their own right but only table is in fact two tables, he asserted, cheesemite has the mental capacity to as adjuncts to humans and their obser­ the semi-real shadow-table we see andI make such an egregiously stupid and ele- vations, measurements, and philoso­ touch and bump into via our very' mentary error, the error of believing that phies. Even the cheesemites knew bet­ imperfect senses, and the Actual andI the scale of perception determines the Absolute Table of Ultimate Reality that ter than this. The cheese, whatever it [ nature of the thing perceived. Cheese is is constructed out of quantum particles was and wherever it came from, was i not cheese because it is quanta? and the forces acting among them. not their creation, nor were they imag­ As some microscopic Thomas Henry ining it. One has to be quite an intelli­ This is nonsense of course, for it[ Huxley-amid-the-cheesemites might gent human being in order to fashion assumes that scale is what determines; have put it: I would rather be a tiny, solipsistic nonsense of the kind we what is and isn't real. There is only one: insignificant insect living out my minus- make. Men, no less than cheesemites, table and what differs is our definition ofF cule life in a slab of moldy gorgonzola, are creatures of their universe, not cre­ it, our definition being contingent on our in total and abject ignorance of the ators of it. Let us move on. choice of scale of perception and concep­ whole, vast universe going on around So it turns out that scale, the level on tion, not the other way round. The: me, than be a man possessed of the gift which we view reality, is important, but macroscopic table and the submicro- of Reason, and use that Reason as we scopic table are the same table; what only to us. Sir Arthur Eddington, one of so often see it used, by the most talented differs is our viewpoint, our scale and the greatest physicists who ever lived, I and noble minds that Humanity has level of reference when we consider the and one of the most confused, is famous to offer. . . . table. Tides and waves aside, the coastline for having proved the accuracy of O.K. Now let's hear it for the of Maine is not variable; what varies is the Einstein's claim about the bending of cheesemites.

SI: In Need of a Psychic

ALAN MILLER

nce again a year has passed. January/February, 2001 SI, pp. 7-8). and their predictions are therefore often Once again predictions And, predictably, SI has once again misinterpreted or misunderstood. For O made by the world's best failed to see that what appear to be example, if a psychic predicts that aliens psychics have been disappointing (sec failed predictions are nothing of the will abduct O.J. Simpson, and this event sort. Indeed, they can be easily does not literally come true, simple- When not in a trance or divining the future explained in at least two ways. minded skeptics might interpret this as a for SI, Alan Miller is a professor of behav­ Simple misunderstanding (referred failed prediction. ioral science at Hokkaido University in to by psychics as "Occam's rationaliza­ Of course the psychic, operating at a Sapporo, Japan. (He submitted this in early tion") is probably the simplest, and higher level of , is speaking 2001—really!—but unfortunately we've therefore, best explanation. Psychics metaphorically, and the above predic­ only now been able to schedule it. —Editor) operate on a different plane than others, tion should be properly understood as

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Januaiy/February 2002 55 FORUM meaning that Hillary Clinton will future events: bold predictions on issues clarify his or her predictions!) become senator of New York. (The sym­ that have a profound effect on people's 2. Arnold Schwarzenegger will make bolic message, which is clear to those who lives, such as which actor and actress will a firm decision to enter politics. Again, do not have preconceived biases against marry, divorce, or be abducted by aliens. there is nothing ambiguous about this prognostication, implies that a controver­ No wonder subscriptions lag far behind prediction. Note, however, that I am not sial public figure will achieve something the National Examiner. sure whether or not he will actually tell extraordinary and will "rise above" all oth­ Fortunately, a careful reading of the anyone what his decision is. ers.) The conscientious psychic will, after pseudoscience literature suggests that 3. The Pope is "on his way out." No the fact, correct the misunderstandings of psychic abilities can be developed by doubt. 4. Hillary's political career will cause The conscientious psychic will, after the fact, a strain on her relationship with Bill. 5. A terrible earthquake will hit correct the misunderstandings of cynical lay India. I know what you're dunking: the observers, but such explanations are typically earthquake already happened. Blame SI for this. They are late in publishing dismissed as post-hoc contrivances. these predictions. But rest assured that I made this prediction just hours before cynical lay observers, but such explana­ anyone. It's just a matter of openness to the earthquake hit. tions are typically dismissed as post-hoc the forces that surround us all, and tap­ 6. An edinic-based war will break out contrivances. Alas, for those who believe, ping our unrealized potential. After all, somewhere in the world, and die U.S. no explanation is necessary, but for those we all know that humans use only 5 per­ will refuse to send troops. Once again, I who do not, no explanation will suffice. cent of our brains. The rest is filler (like am being as precise as possible. No only A second explanation for supposedly network news). But of course it is not do I predict a war, but one where the failed predictions comes straight out of merely filler. It is "Sentient Hyperactive participants have different ethnic back­ basic physics. This should come as no Integrative Telepathy" (often known by grounds! I further predict that, not just surprise since the word plyysia is an ana­ its acronym). And with some practice, any country but specifically the U.S., gram for the word psychics (with an extra anyone can learn to tap it (or fling it). will not commit troops. I realize I am "c" inserted since psychics are "seers"). As I have emerged from a long trance and going out on a limb making such a bold anyone familiar with Einsteinian physics am ready to offer my predictions for the prediction, but I feel awash in Sentient or knows, time is relative. year 2001. I realize diat we are already Hyperactive Integrative Telepathy. Although people observe time as march­ well into the year, but even with the lim­ 7. One of the new "reality-based" ing along in a linear fashion and at a con­ ited lime, I am confident my predictions television shows will be rocked by a stant rate, this is merely true from our will outperform diose of other psychics. scandal. There is nothing, of course, limited point of view. Psychics do not Here, then, are my top ten predictions. (I that purveyors of these shows (as well as have such limitations, therefore, even have made far more, but due to limited their audiences) hate more than a scan­ though they might claim to make predic­ space, diey will not be printed here. dal, but one will occur anyway. tions for a specific year (they must talk in However, rest assured diat at the end of 8. Woods will not be able to ways that lay people can understand), the year, I will tell you what the odier duplicate the success he had in 2000. their concept of what constitutes a year is predictions were.) Also, please note that I (Okay, I admit that this is not a psychic freed from die shackles of nonambiguity. will not resort to imprecise and ambigu­ prediction. I teach statistics and am well Thus, I have every confidence diat the ous predictions, unless of course it aware of "regression toward the mean.") prediction that Pope John Paul II will die improves my chances of success. 9. Death will once again rock the is true and accurate, once die subjective 1. A major astronomical discovery will entertainment industry'. It brings me no time constraints imposed on us by our lead to a new dieory concerning the uni­ joy to make such a prediction. I some­ position in the universe and sensory lim­ verse. Nodiing wishy-washy about this times feel this newfound ability of mine itations have been removed. And I have prediction. Indeed, to clear up any possi­ is more of a curse than a blessing! not even mentioned the idea of parallel bility of misunderstanding, I will define 10. Martin Gardner will publish a universes! Are you people at SI scientists each term precisely. A discovery is deemed new book. or what? "major" if it is covered in one or more Well, diere you have it. And I will stick The main point of my writing this newspapers. And when I say the universe, by these predictions (as well as diose that article, however, is not to criticize SI. I am not merely referring to any universe. I have not yet told you about), regardless Rather, I offer constructive advice. SI I am referring precisely to our universe. of die consequences. (Are diere conse­ does not run its own predictions of (No odier psychic goes to such lengths to quences for failed predictions?)

56 January/February 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER FOLLOW-UP

Alternative Veterinary Medical Treatments: A Misrepresentation? Skeptical Inquirer

KAREN R. MUNANA

read Robert Imrie's article "Con­ The statements that Imrie attribute I fronting Veterinary Medical Nonsense" to me purporting the benefits of (July/August 2001) with astonishment acupuncture can be found in the con­ after realizing that a presentation I made at ference's proceedings, yet I consider it a national veterinary conference was a sub­ troublesome that he omitted all my ject of the article. Regrettably, Imrie mis­ statements regarding the uncertainties represented several facts regarding my pre­ and inconsistencies present in the sentation, which I shall clarify here. available information on the use of First, I am a veterinary neurologist, not this modality. For instance, I high­ an internist as Imrie states. Contrary to lighted the only controlled study what Imrie implies in his article, the focus undertaken in humans that failed to tory to these goals. I am fortunate that the of the presentation was not acupuncture, document a beneficial effect of readers of this magazine, being critical but rather vagal nerve stimulation and the acupuncture, and questioned the value thinkers, are well suited to question the ketogenic diet, two alternative treatments of available veterinary information on accuracy of Imrie's comments. I would be for seizures which are deemed efficacious the topic because of the lack of con­ happy to send a copy of the proceedings based on sound scientific evidence. trolled studies. in their entirety to any interested party. Although I did briefly address acupunc­ It seems ironic, at best, that the goal of ture, mat part of the presentation was Imrie's group "is to help animal owners Karen R. Munana, DVM, MS, essentially comprised of a literature review and veterinarians understand what they Diplomate ACVIM () of the topic; it did not institute a specific are being told, and to help keep them Associate Professor of Neurology stand on its merits. (I myself do not prac­ from drowning in a vast sea of medical North Carolina State University tice acupuncture, nor do I regularly rec­ ," given that his misrepre­ College of Veterinary Medicine ommend it to my clients.) sentation of my presentation is contradic- Raleigh, NC 27606

a number of major shortcomings that Robert A. Imrie Responds were not mentioned, it stated that "the main criticism of these clinical studies u nan a claims I have unfairly these three alternative therapies in is the lack of a control group." It con­ M criticized her because the focus humans with epilepsy, and discuss cluded that "nonetheless, the positive of her presentation on "Alternative their current or potential use in the response reported in these studies sug­ Approaches to the Treatment of management of seizures in veterinary gests that this form of therapy may be Epilepsy" was "not acupuncture, but patients." In any case, I'm sure of use." Elsewhere it stated that "the rather vagal nerve stimulation and the Munana would agree that any material mechanism by which acupuncture con­ ketogenic diet." In her published presented should be accurate and trols seizure activity is not completely notes, and as I recall in her lecture, she reflect the best available science. understood." But acupuncture has not devoted roughly equal time and atten­ Unfortunately, the presentation in been definitively shown to control tion to each of these "alternative" question included several inaccurate seizure activity. Likewise, the presenta­ approaches. I could not discern any statements regarding the history of tion asserted that "one major advantage indication that "the focus" was acupuncture. It also included the posi­ of acupuncture treatment is the intended to be on two of these modal­ tive results of two severely flawed clini­ absence of side effects," when the more ities to the exclusion of a third. The cal trials involving not acupuncture, salient disadvantage is that it has no published description states: "This but the implantation of gold beads in proven above-placebo or beyond- presentation will review the use of dogs. Even though both suffered from counter-irritant therapeutic effects at

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER lanuary/February 2002 57 FOLLOW-UP

all. Adverse effects certainly have been cal trial in humans has been publish­ inaccurate and overblown historical reported in people, and animals may ed (K. Stavern, R. Kloster, E. Rossberg, claims supporting its allegedly "time- not like the insertion of needles. PG. Larsson, R. Dahl, E. Kinge, R. tested" and venerable nature without (H. Yamashita, H. Tsukayama, A.R. Lossius, K.O. Nakken. Acupuncture in bothering to check original ancient White, Y. Tanno, C. Sugishita, E. intractable epilepsy: Lack of effea on Chinese sources. They also tend to pub­ Ernst. Systematic review of adverse health-related quality of life. Seizure, lish studies and clinical trials of events following acupuncture: The 2000 September; 9[6]:422-62). abysmally low quality, concluding that Japanese literature. Complement Ther In my view, the quality of science the results are either positive or "incon­ Med, 2001 June; 9[2]:98-104). and evidence supporting vagal stimula­ clusive, but promising" and calling for In short, notwithstanding the fact that tion and the ketogenic diet in the treat­ bigger, better, and more expensive ones. Munana expresses reservations about the ment of epilepsy is vastly higher than I believe Munana has been the unwit­ evidence, I believe the presentation sub­ that supporting the use of acupuncture ting victim of these trends. It's unfortu­ stantially "oversold" both the history and (or gold bead implantation.) They aren't nate that in her presentation she chose the likely benefits of acupuncture in in the same scientific league, much less to lump all three of the modalities in the treatment of epilepsy. Subsequently, the same ballpark. Proponents of question together as "alternatives" to at least one additional negative clini­ acupuncture have endlessly repeated standard therapy.

oin with science enthusiasts from across the world! Participate in annual Celebrations marking J the birth of evolutionary theorist Charles Robert Darwin. In 2002 more than one hundred events will take place in over twenty different countries. Humanist and skeptical groups, science clubs and organizations, museums, libraries, zoos, bookstores, academic societies, middle and high schools, college and universities, businesses and many others will participate.

The Darwin Day Program and the Darwin's Bulldogs Membership Club honor Charles Darwin, Thomas H. Huxley, and other great women and men who have contributed to our growing understanding of the mysteries of the universe.

DARWIN DAY • www.darwinday.org • FEBRUARY 12 An International Celebration of Science & Humanity

Visit www.darwinday.org or contact Amanda Chesworth at [email protected] for information on how you can participate in and support the Darwin Day Program.

58 January/Febfuary 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER READERS FORUM ON SCIENCE AND RELIGION 2001

Our Science and Religion 2001 issue (September/October 2001). as expected prompted considerable reader response. Selected letters are in this Readers Forum section. We could not publish nearly all the letters received, and most of the letters published have been shortened, some significantly. Letters about the overall issue, or commenting on the topic generally, appear first, followed by those that respond to individual articles, essentially in the order in which the articles appeared. We thank you for your insights and interest. — Kendrick Frazier. Editor

What a magnificent piece of work is I think there is serious conflict between sci­ the September/October issue on Science ence and most religions. and Religion! Alas! It was too good not Some people insist that it is impossible to Stepticaljnqiiirer to be perfect. Far too little was said by disprove the notion of a god. This may be the contributors about the purposes of true for gods in general, as the definition is

Arthur' CLARKE these disciplines. so vague. ... LOVELOCK The objective of science is simple and What couldn't exist (and is iiiteinally WEINBERG •MdtGnur TYSON fairly clear; to increase knowledge of natural contradictory) is the notion of an omni­ Science Mine AVISE law in order to serve man's needs whatever scient, omnipresent, omnipotent God. The v*ra j STENGER and McofcPANDIAN they may be. (Lord save us from labeling sci­ idea that the first creature in the universe was Religion .,PKJUUCCI entists as "truth seekers.") Would that equal the most complex creature is counter to SPARKS w. YOUNG simplicity applied to religion. proven evolutionary principals. That this 2001 MOV One would love to believe that the good creature created itself, then created the uni­ rules of religious faith, not so readily verse is scientifically absurd. The Jewish/ SHROUD obtained from science, are there to help Christian/Muslim concept of God/Allah OF TURIN SCANDALS mankind live in peace and harmonious arose from previous religions, but has been brotherhood. Unfortunately the holy revela­ more successfully promoted. tions arc encumbered by a distinctly differ­ As science has advanced, more and more- ent collection of directives that make the topics previously considered beyond the good harvest conditional upon acceptance of mortal mind have come to have natural gods indistinguishable from egotistical explanations. . .. Without science diere is intimidators who love to pit one ethnic only superstition. Thank you for your excel­ The Overall Issue group against another over pieces of real lent publication. Keep up the good work. estate and other material objects. Rick I.ewis I've been a reader of the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER If we could but leam to separate die wheat Bcllevue, Washington for many years. The last one on science and from die chaff all would not be lost. Learning religion was by far the best ever produced. how to make that selection is the essential ingre­ The special issue on science and religion dient in the evolution of the best old religions Ivan Stanko, M.D. seems to have largely bypassed the actual and well worth die effort, for science alone has [email protected] contemporary issues that concern the parti­ not proven to be exactly the padi of peace.... sans in the Science and Religion discus­ Please remove me from your subscription list We need to be careful. In ridding religion sions—Protestant fundamentalist Christians immediately and refund the balance of the from the supernatural let us not throw the excepted. price paid. . .. baby out with the bathwater. But at least in Europe and the Anglo- 1 would deduce from the combination of Bernard Smith American countries, people don't look to your magazine's title and its content that Boca Raton, Florida religion to function as science. They what you are "Skeptical" about is anything expect their churches to provide some religious and what you arc an "Inquirer" of is I think you shouldn't publish religious arti­ community and some guidance on moral anything that flics in the face of religion. . . . cles. In fact, long ago I got the distinct and ethical issues, but not to ward off From the tone of your "Special Issue," it impression that your policy was to avoid reli­ thunderstorms or cure their illnesses. More seems that any chance to take some murky gion; but obviously either I was mistaken, or people look to quack "alternative medi­ data thrown out by well-meaning Christians you've changed. cines" to fix their ailments than to reli­ and represent it as mainstream is the norm. gious faith-healers. Looking for data that might show correla­ I also subscribe to your sister publication And, to a large extent, science has won tion berween God and science seems way , and 1 get all the religious arti­ its old conflict with religion. In the demo­ beyond your level of thought (or at the very cles I want from them. In fact, I'm rather cratic West, nobody goes to jail for blas­ least, desire). I make this assertion because puzzled as to why "Science and Religion" is a phemy or for criticizing the teachings of there is plenty of data out there showing cor­ SI special issue rather than a FI one. You're their church. True, many issues such as relations if a person would simply inquire. poaching, and I'd like you to stop it. . . . abortion and stem cell research still arise Mark A. Rudge Ralph Sizer that find religious figures taking opposite Atlanta, Georgia Providence, Rhode Island sides from scientists. But those battles are

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/Februa.y 2002 59 largely mediated through secular govern­ Frazier's 'Introductory To begin with, Mr. Johnson is a law pro­ ment institutions. fessor. Unlike other professions, the law is Thoughts' unique in that its teachers only rarely ever try Bruce Miller cases or argue appeals. My guess is that Mr. Oakland, California I enjoyed Kcndrick Frazier's "Introductory Johnson has spent very few hours of his pro­ Thoughts" in the Science and Religion 2001 fessional life in a courtroom. I was very surprised by the narrow-minded­ issue. After almost fifty years of practicing law, ness of the science community as printed in I graduated from UCLA with a degree in I know that distortion, trivialization, and the Science and Religion 2001 issue. It proves anthropology over twenty years ago. Now it mischaracterization arc extremely poor tech­ rhat intellect docs not breed common sense. seems as I get older the answers ro life's great niques to use before judges or jurors. Those Science is so proud of being able to explain mysteries get simpler and less complicated. who do use rhem are rarely successful. thunder and lightning, but has no clue as to Leslie White, in his book The Evolution of the creation of thunder and lightning. Culture, states that the defining characteristic Ronald A. May Science seems to be on the defensive of man is the ability to make and use sym­ Little Rock, Arkansas when its references to religion have to be bols. Religious behaviors are symbols dis­ combined with the supernatural, and refer­ playing group afFiliation. The need to belong ences to God come from Galileo and is far greater than the need to reason and Tyson's 'Holy Wars' Newton. It's too bad your publication didn't understand. contain the thoughts of modern theologians Science and teligion arc two different Neil deGrasse Tyson ("Holy Wars") corrccrly who. like science, arc constantly updating animals. Science is a means to an end. It is a reports the results of a recent survey that translations and proofs. method of discovery. Religion is belonging showed that about 39 percent of scientists are It's also too bad that such learned men to a group. That is it in a nutshell. religious. This deserves some clarification. The survey, which I assume was the one claiming to be skeptics cannot accept the fact Jack Edwards that much of our existence and world depends performed by Edward J. Larson and Larry Conroe, Texas on faith and always will. Faith will never be Witham (Nature 386:435-436, 1996), documented with mathematical precision, reported on belief by scientists in a personal The last place I expected the word atheist to be God. This was narrowly defined as belief in but, in my mind, surely provides me answers pejorative was in the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. It through prayer. You can't look at the heavens a God to whom one prays and from whom starts with Kcndrick Frazier's notion that "thc- an answer is expected. at night, a newborn baby, and the diversity ists" and "atheists" arc equal fringcrs: and perfect functionality of nature and tell me An entirely different result was obtained their existence "just is" and has nothing to do Evangelical and fundamentalist believers see in a follow-up study by the same authors a black-and-white world. They know the with the creative hand of God. (A//jnvrr394:3l3, 1998) when they surveyed truth.... Atheists are equally certain of the "greater" scientists, a group defined as mem­ correctness of their non-belief, and every­ Robert M. Moyle one else is deluded or at least a bit foolish. bers of the National Academy of Sciences. Avon Lake, Ohio For that elite group only 7 percent indicated We have often heard in the SKEPTICAL a belief in a personal God. Among these While I greatly enjoyed your recent special INQUIRER and elsewhere that "extraordinary leading scientists, biologists show the lowest issue on science and religion ... I was disap­ claims require extraordinary proofs." Is there belief (5.5 percent) and mathematicians the pointed to see you perpetuate die "love your anything more extraordinary than the claim highest (14.3 percent). neighbor because water freezes at thirty-two that a supernatural power created and con­ To explain the great skepticism of leading degrees'* brand of nonsense that holds that trols the universe? The evidence that supports biologists, my tentative guess is that their there is a scientific basis for ethical conduct. this theory is hearsay anecdotes going back confident understanding of the mechanism Can anyone give me the scientific basis thousands of years. Stories of individuals who of evolution undermines reliance on a super­ for stopping to help a wounded mugging attribute some recent event to the Supreme natural theory to understand the living victim instead of just walking on? You can Being can offer no evidence they have ever world. Like I aplaic they can say, "I have no tell me that I am obligated to help him had any visual or audio contact with the need for that hypothesis." because it will help to continue our species, supernatural. "Theists" prefer to rely on meir and this is the highest goal. I respond by say­ overwhelming number of supporters rather Irwin Tessman ing that our species, with its teeming bil­ than the quality of their evidence. . . . Biology Department lions, is in no way imperiled by the loss of Purdue University W. Lafayette, Indiana this man's life. . . . You can tell me that it is a Sam Fields self-evident truth that altruism is morally Plantation, Florida better than selfishness. I respond by saying I enjoyed Neil deGrasse Tyson's article but that this may be so; but what does it have to I am in complete agreement with Kendrick puzzled over two points. The first was con­ do with science?... I am not advocating Frazier's "Introductory Thoughts" about sci­ cerning the percentage of scientists who claim that theology replace science in any particu­ ence and religion. to be religious. I suspect that if the definition lar area of life. I am just stating the obvious But I am dismayed that he would use this of "religious" included a belief in an "intelli­ by saying that science cannot provide the vehicle to slam my legal profession. He says gent, omnipotent God figure in human-like impetus for moral conduct. that Phillip E. Johnson "distorted, trivial­ form," the percentage of religious-believing ized, and mischaractcrizcd" cvolurionary sci­ scientists would drop substantially. Andrew Ditch ence and that his "rhetoric" and "tactics" Second, Tyson's statement "the methods of Geneva, New York were "honed in the legal arena." science have litde or nothing to contribute to

60 January/February 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER etary orbits are inclined to the ecliptic just Christianity was aligned with scientific natural­ like the Sun. . . . ism, and non-Christian supernaturalism was aligned with superstition. Nowhere have I said Richard C. Carrier that Smith uses the term supernaturalism. New York, New York Smith refers to Saint Augustine's use of the concept of religio, and notes that after Saint Augustine the concept was not elaborated upon Pandian's 'Dangerous until the Late Renaissance "partly perhaps, Quest' because of the victory of the Church and the dis­ appearance of those alien traditions and of the In his article, "The Dangerous Quest for conflict with them. ..." The problem of defend­ Cooperation Between Science and Religion," ing Christianity as the true religion arose, once anthropologist Jacob Pandian commends a again, in the context of the Late Renaissance ethics, inspiration, morals, beauty, love, hate, book by historian of comparative religions when European supernaturalism came into con­ or esthetics" is rather shortsighted. I lecture to Wilfred Cantwell Smith (whom he misnames tact with (and was threatened by) other forms of (non-European) supernaturalism, and a prolifer­ plastic surgery residents concerning racial William) as suppoiiiug the idea that "reli­ ation of treatises on Christianity as the true reli­ beauty and stress that the universal standards gion" (I.atin religio) is a pseudoscientific sub­ gion emerged, subsuming scientific knowledge of beauty (symmetry, averagcness, uniqueness, set of a culturally universal "supernatural- ism," a subset fomented by the Church in the (produced by modem science) within the frame­ youthful/healthy appearance and pleasant Middle Ages. But in making this claim work of religion. I suggest that Saint Augustine demeanor) have been determined by natural Pandian gets more than Smith's name wrong. articulated the Christian (i.e.. Catholic) views of selection. Their origin and purpose can be religion as a combination of true knowledge and better understood and appreciated by the Smith's The Meaning and End of faith in the true God and provided an epistemo­ "methods of science" that Tyson claims "have Religion—the text in question—nowhere logical foundation for the Christian-scientific little or nothing to contribute." We humans mentions "supernaturalism" and specifically truth, a foundation that has continued to the pre­ too often assume that ethics, inspiration, points to the medieval period as one in which sent day causing confusion in the minds of scltol- morals, beauty, love, hate, etc., are "God the church paid little or no attention to the ars and laymen alike as to the objectives of super­ given" and not a natural part of nature as word religio, let alone using it to redefine naturalism and science. The late anthropologist expressed by biological evolution. In fact, all supernaturalism as having scientific legiti­ Professor Edward Norbeck pointed out in bis macy, as Pandian asserts. Changes in religio of the blunders and achievements of humankind book. Religion in Primitive Society. "We may the sort Pandian seems to have in mind came, have natural origins. There can be no other note in passing that when we speak of the prim­ instead, after the Reformation, Smith makes cause, unless of course, you believe in God. itive world it is permissible in any civilized com­ plain, and especially with the seventeenth cen­ pany to refer to supernaturalism. With reference Craig Gosling tury and the Enlightenment. But these to our own society however, it is often regarded as Indianapolis, Indiana changes had to do with attaching religio to a mark of militant atheism to refer to our reli­ systems of propositional "belief," a point of gious beliefs as supernaturalism. " I suggest that Neil deGrasse Tyson repeats a commonplace Smith's which Pandian totally ignores. irrespective of whether it is emotionally pleasing myth in lay understandings of the history of Such sloppy scholarship does no service or not, it is necessary to identify Christianity as a science of which skeptical readers should be to the skeptical cause. Nor, more generally, particidar type of supernaturalism in order to aware. He states on p. 26: "the time-hon­ does having special issues on "Science and further the objectives and scope of science rattier ored. Earth-centered model had conflicted Religion" with zero participation by anyone than attempting to bridge supernaturalism (of with no known observations. This remained possessing credentials in the academic study any type) and naturalism. true long after Copernicus introduced his of religion. Does skepticism really need to Sun-centered model of the universe a cen­ load the dice against religion by portraying it I regret very much and apologize to the tury earlier" than Galileo's trial. This is not in ignorance of its actual history? readers for referring to W.C. Smith as William true. For Ptolemy's model had long been Cantwell Smith. As Daniel Noel has noted, Daniel C. Noel known to be a failure in explaining the lunar W.C. Smith is indeed Wilfred Cantwell Pacifica Graduate Institute motion: his incorporation of complex epicy­ Smith, and I thank him for pointing this out cles in describing the Moon's position cre­ Carpinteria, California in his letter. ated a scenario that entailed the Moon's Jacob Pandian replies: apparent size should vary quite noticeably, The article by Jacob Pandian shows a serious but observations refute this variation (the A careful reading of W.C. Smith's book. The misunderstanding ol the history of religious actual variation is much smaller), and this Meaning and End ol Religion, and a careful expression. Pandian asserts (with no support was a thorn in the side of Ptolemaic theory reading of my paper will show that the thesis other than a reference to a single, academically since its inception. Only an elliptical system that I presented in my paper is not a restatement suspect book) diat: "While ancient civiliza­ would have worked (it could have saved even of what Smith wrote in his book. I state tions such as the Greeks, Romans, Chinese, a geocentric model), yet that was not arrived Christianity established an epistemological link and Hindus had elaborate beliefs and activities at even by Copernicus, whose own model between science and supernaturalism by concep­ that we associate with supernaturalism, they was actually not much better at predicting tualizing religion as the framework to explain did not have 'religion,' i.e., a formulation thai planetary motion than the Ptolemaic one, natural phenomena and lo explain the nature of combines scientific knowledge and supernatu­ though it did explain one peculiarity: it the relationship between God and humankind. ralism." Based on this mistake, he suggests that made more sense of the fact that all the plan­ In such a view, the religious framework of religion—by which he means Christianity—

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2002 61 hockery, Ruscio I May the force be with you, Krauss I The Mead-Freeman controversy: A fresh look: Much FILL IN THE GAPS IN YOUR ado about nothing The 'Fateful Hoaxing' of Margaret Mead, Cote I Margaret Mead, Derek Freeman, and the issue of evolution, Shankman I Second World Skeptics Congress: Science and reason, foibles and fallacies, and Skeptical Inquirer COLLECTION doomsdays / Science and the unknowable, Gardner. • 15% discount on orders of $100 or more • SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 1998 (vol 22, no. 5): Special Section: What are the chances?. Coincidences: • $6.25 a copy. Vols. 1-18 ($5.00 Vols. 19-25). To order, use reply card insert • Remarkable or random?, Martin I : Comes the revolution, Dudley I Calculated risks. 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Anniversary section: The origins and evolution of JULY/AUGUST 1998 (vol. 22, no. 4): Special Report: Mars CSICOP, Nisbet t Never a dull moment, Karr I John MARCH/APRIL 2000 (vol. 24, no. 2): Risky business: Global Surveyor photographs 'Face on Mars', Morrison I Edward: Hustling the bereaved. Nickel! I Ernest Vividness, availability, and the media paradox, Rusciol Magnetic therapy: Plausible attraction, Livingston I and Jane, Gardner. Physics and the paranormal, 't Hooft I Efficacy of Biomagnetic pseudoscience and nonsense claims, Sabadelll SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2001 (vol. 25, no. prayer, Tessman and Tessman I Can we Catching up with eighteenth century science in the evalua­ 5): Special Issue: Science and Religion tell if someone is staring at us?, Baker I tion of , Ball and Alexander I Paranormal 2001. 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Wiseman and Greening I Is cannibalism a myth?, Gardner From the editor's seat: 25 years of science and skepticism, JULY/AUGUST 1999 (vol. 23, no. 4): Special Issue: NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 1997 (vol. 21, no. 6): The Mars Kendrick Frazier I Science vs. pseudoscience, nonscience, Science and Religion, Conflict or Conciliation? effect in retrospect, Nienhuys I Hidden messages and and nonsense, James Alcock I CSICOP timeline / Primal Celebrating creation, Raymo I Should skeptical inquiry the Bible code, Thomas I Science, scientism, and anti scream: A persistent New Age therapy, Gardner. be applied to religion?, Kurtz I The 'Science and science in the age of preposterism, Haack I The Religion' movement, Scott i Science and Elemental Man: An interview with MARCH/APRIL 2001 (vol. 25, no. 2): Darwin in mind, the versus of religion, Palevitzl Science vs. Glenn T Seaborg / and Edis I A bit confused, Roche I What can the paranor­ religion, Pazameta I Anthropic design, Contact: Night and day. 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MARCH/APRIL 1999 (vol. 23, no. 2): Special Report: in a high school English course, Krai I Skepticism and SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2000 (vol 24, no. 5): Voodoo The ten-percent myth, Radford I Superstition and the politics, Fagin I Courtney Brown's 'Cosmic Voyage' into science and the belief gene, Park I Rogerian Nursing regression effect, Kruger, Savitsky, and Gilovich I preposterism, Gardner. 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JANUARY/FEBRUARY 1999 (vol. 23, no. 1): Special and 19, Gardner. Report: Armageddon and the prophets of doomsday. JULY/AUGUST 2000 (vol. 24, no. 4): : JANUARY/FEBRUARY 1997 (vol 21, no. 1): The X Files Fears of the apocalypse, Kurtz I The Bible and the Can we really tap our problems away?, Gaudiano and meets the skeptics: Chris Carter takes questions / The sig­ prophets of doom, Larue I Science and pseudoscience Herbert I Absolute skepticism equals dogmatism, Bunge I nificance of the millennium, Loevingerl Quantum quack in Russia, Kapitza I Testing dowsing: The failure of the Did a close encounter of the third kind occur on a Japanese ery, Stenger I The mysterious placebo, Dodes / Bias and Munich experiments, Enright I A fallibilist among the Error in children's books, Wiseman and Jeffreys I Jean beach in 1803?, Tanaka I Rethinking the dancing mania, cynics, Haack I The internet: A world brain?, Gardner. Bartholomew/ Has science education become an enemy of Houston: Guru of human potential, Gardner. scientific rationality?, Ede I Krakatene: Explosive pseudo- NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 1998 (vol 22, no. 6): Gaps in science from the Czech Academy of science, Slanina I David the fossil record: A case study, Thomas I The Martian For a complete listing of our back issues, call 800-634 Bohm and Krishnamurti, Gardner. Panic sixty years later Bartholomew I The perils of post- 1610, or see http://www.cskop.org/si/back-issues.htnil. was originally formulated to co-opt science, lication of The Origin of Species in 1859, the did was to convince his readers that God and that it still persists in this project. outcries of biblical literalists notwithstand­ designed Earth's animals. It clearly was not. In the Hellenistic and Roman worlds ing. The contest today is whether religion in Pigliucci's observation that Dembski there were always intimate ties between reli­ the broadest sense is in conflict with science claims that his "explanations . . . should be gion (or supernaturalism), science, and phi­ or provides a valid additional path to under­ allowed in ... public school curricula" is very losophy. The Christian Church fathers sim­ standing. This seems to be the agenda of the much to the point. Dembski realizes that ply adapted (and generally trivialized) what Templeton Foundation. This contest is wor­ Supreme Court decisions have barred super­ was already there. The simplest example is thy of the attention of our best minds today. natural explanations from public schools and astronomy/astrology/cosmology. In the so wishes to provide some natural basis for Oakley E. (Lee) Van Slyke ancient world the Ptolemic system was the his explanations. He chooses one that is San Clemente, California final synthesis of theoretical attempts to transparently unbelievable in the hope that while he persuades officials that "intelligent "save the appearances." That is, to produce a Jacob Pandian's dissertation on the dichotomy design" can be legally taught, he at the same means of calculation of planetary positions between supernaturalism and science was, time can persuade students that only an that reproduced observations. But there was overall, very informative. However, there omnipotent God could credibly be the real no assumption that this was a veridical seems to be a major sticking point in his argu­ source of the "design." model of reality. The assumed model of real­ ments. Pandian maintains that the term reli­ ity was Earth at the center of the concentric gion an be appropriately applied only to His ploy cannot work. Reference to a planetary spheres. In the outermost sphere of Christianity because Christianity is the only "very advanced extraterrestrial civilization" the Empyrean the Universal Logos resided set of supernatural beliefs that tries to explain inevitably raises the question of the origin of and controlled events on Earth by radiating natural phenomena. On the contrary, many, if the members of that civilization. If their ori­ its influence across the planetary spheres. not most, supernaturalisms (as Pandian calls gin is supernatural, then so is the foundation for his theory of Intelligent Design and it is Each of dicse sphetes would, it was sup­ other religions) have myths to explain such therefore not legal to teach Dembski's theory posed, impress its own influence on this natural phenomena as the creation of the in the public schools. If their origin is not tadiation, giving theoretical support to world, the northern lights, why the harvest wasn't very good in a particular year, etc. supernatural, then die very advanced extrater­ astrology as the study of planetary influences Indeed, the word myth, which the author him­ restrial civilization's origin must have been on events on Earth. Ptolemy was a master self uses in relation to non-Christian supernat­ natural, albeit extraterrestrial, evolution. . . . astrologer as well as an astronomer. . . . uralisms, implies a story that attempts to At least within the educated elite of the explain some natural phenomenon. Stan Kurzban ancient world, supernaturalism and science Chappaqua, New York were not at all separate. The figure of the shaman or medicine Today, in contrast, dogmatic fundamen­ man, found in one guise or anotlier in many I was a litdc surprised to see that Massimo talism fails to respect science and dogmatic cultures, clearly blurs the line between science Pigliucci was not certain of what the intelli­ scientism denies any validity to religion. and the supernatural. Picture the image of gence in Intelligent Design is for William What is important is to discover a new unity such a healer, applying a poultice of herbs (sci­ Dembski. If one reads Dembski's book that simultaneously respects the independent ence/technology) as he or she intones a prayer Intelligent Design (subtitled "The Bridge rationality of science and nourishes the tran­ to some Great Spirit (the supernatural)—all in Between Science & Theology") it is clear scendent potential of the human spirit. This hopes of healing some natural ailment. that the Christian God is the intelligence that Dembski has in mind—see especially is the reason to work for a reconciliation Christianity may have pursued a more chapter 8. As Pigliucci noted at the start of between science and religion. systematic attempt to explain the natural his article. Intelligent Design is just another world vis-a-vis a supernatural dogma, but brand of creationism; and of course creation- Burton Voorhees Pandian overstates his case when he suggests ism is not about little green men but the Edmonton, Alberta, Canada that there is some qualitative difference Christian God. between Christianity and other religions. Jacob Pandian should know that one cannot Indeed, his view almost smacks of a kind of Dene Bebbington win a deductive argument simply by arguing perverse culture-centric arrogance. about the definition of a word. However true Reading, England Pandian's history of the origin of the word Alan Miesch religion, twentieth century usage is quite dif­ Rochester, New York Thank you for the splendid issue on Science ferent. The Free Religious Association was and Religion, especially the essays which founded in 1867, providing a focus for point out fortbrightly that these two activities Unitarians without creed, including those Pigliucci's 'Design Yes, are fundamentally and utterly incompatible. who denied the existence of God. Roman As a biologist I am delighted with Catholic theologian Fulton J. Sheen pub­ Intelligent No' Pigliucci's paper. Thanks to him for the lished Religion Without God in 1928. Mason clearest explanation of Aristotle's four causes I have read. Olds writes, "... by 1929, the expression says that William 'religion without God' was a favorite subject Dembski "admits that his Intelligent Design I must courteously disagree with him, however, on use of the word design in biol­ for discussion" (American Religious could even be due to a very advanced ogy. Design inescapably implies a Designer. Humanism, Revised Edition, 1996, p. ix). extraterrestrial civilization, not to a supernat­ The Oxford English Dictionary tells us that The contest between religion and science ural entity at all." Pigliucci seems to have the noun means is not about religio versus science. Science chosen his verb under the assumption that won that contest hands down with the pub­ Dembski's only motivation in writing as he "I. A mental plan ...

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER january/Februaty 2002 63 1. A plan or scheme conceived in the mind previous bridges that had been built. Those ple way around it. Stop assuming that the less and intended for subsequent execution; previous designs were less well adapted to the advanced civilization is less advanced than the preliminary conception of an idea particular New York environment than the ours and contains a dearth of rational beings. that is to be carried into effect by Brooklyn Bridge design is, so the builders action; a project. If today's eminent scientists and rational didn't use them, but in other situations they 2. Purpose, aim, intention. thinkers encountered a civilization much were quite acceptable. You could change the 3. The thing aimed at; the end in view; the more advanced than ours, the last thing likely final purpose. materials, reduce the width, change the to cross their minds would be that they were 4. Contrivance in accordance with a pre­ details, and you'd eventually work your way seeing magic. They would more likely be conceived plan ... preconceived pur­ back to the original bridge—a tree tipped enthralled and excited to learn about untold pose; specifically] used in reference to across a stream. the view that the universe manifests wonders and expand their knowledge of Divine forethought and testifies to an Saying the Brooklyn Bridge is irrcducibly physics and odier sciences. This assumes, of intelligent Creator...." complex is like saying the human eye is. Just course, that they can get past their bruised as half an eye was useful to previous organ­ human egos! These meanings arc taken from actual uses of isms, a less than Brooklyn Bridge is, and was, the word design in English from the sixteenth also useful. We have to remember in discus­ Michael Uschold century to the present time. sions like this that individuals don't evolve, Seattle, Washington The O. E. D. also gives the history of the designs (species) do. English word, which is derived from a fif­ One need not go through fancy shenanigans teenth-century French ancestor meaning Rick Lewis to refute the notion of Intelligent Design. "design, purpose, private intention, or Bellevue, Washington We need only consider extinctions. There determination." have been about six major extinctions dis­ It is clear that in English a "design" has Massimo Pigliucci lays out four different covered in the geologic record. Let us con­ always been the product of a creative and kinds of design. He also states: sider only the last two. directing mind. In no sense can Darwinian The reason intelligcnt-supcrnatural-sloppy The most recent major extinction event selection, or any other natural process, involve design is not distinguishable from some occurred 65 million years ago. It wiped out "design." The word is entirely inappropriate instances (but by all means not all) intelli­ more than 70 percent of die species extant at for use in the natural sciences. At best it is gent-natural design is Arthur C. Clarke's the time. The one before that, about 280 mil­ famous third law: ... the technology of a misleading; at worst it plays into the hands of lion years ago, annihilated upwards of 90 per­ the creationists. "Structure" is a good substi­ very advanced civilization is essentially indistinguishable from magic.... 1 would cent of die extant species. This means that tute, with minimal teleological content. be very interested if someone could suggest about 3 percent of species managed to pass Thanks again to Pigliucci for his stimu­ a way around Clarke's law. through those narrow gates. If we now add lating and lucid article. the previous extinctions, it is obvious that One way to determine the presence of a much less than 1 percent of the species which James F. supernatural agent would be to look for vio­ have existed on Earth have disappeared for­ Department of Biological Sciences lations of basic physical laws, such as mass- ever. We are the accidental result of an enor­ Humboldt State University energy conservation, or causality (except as mous number of accidental events in geologi­ Areata, California may be allowed by quantum mechanics). If cal history, and evolutionary history. the violation is blatant enough, the charac­ So here we have an example of an "intel­ I enjoyed Massimo Pigliucci's article, but I terization of the event is sufficiently accurate, contend there is a significant flaw in the you could be fairly sure it was a supernatural ligent designer" who deliberately destroyed notion of the four types of design. It seems event, and not some new physics at work. Of more than 99 percent of his "models." I can to me that none of the four types of design course, no such event has ever been reliably see not the slightest hint of intelligence here. are necessarily irrcducibly complex, because documented. In fact I agree with the great theologian Woody Allen, who said: "If there is a god, he the intelligent designs generally build on pre­ While the lack of such extra-physical is an underachiever." vious designs. evidence would not prove that the cause The example used to represent an intel­ was natural, I would think that only an R. Thomas Myers ligent, natural (human) design was the exceptionally disciplined or sneaky god Kent, Ohio Brooklyn Bridge. It is definitely not irre- could pass up the opportunity to break a ducibly complex. The design was the result law of physics now and then. If such an of thousands of trials (and some spectacular agent were never to violate physical law, failures) in previous bridge designs. It is a then it may as well be natural. Moy's The Galileo Affair' fine example of evolution by artificial selec­ tion. Just because it can't reproduce by itself Leon Towns-von Staubce Timothy Moy's article "Science, Religion, (fortunately), doesn't mean it's not an evolv­ Shoreline, Washington and the Galileo Affair" is presented as a cau­ ing design. The name of the design is really tionary tale about the boundaries between "bridge," with the Brooklyn Bridge merely as Massimo Pigliucci notes that it would be religion and science, and "the false belief that the particular example. interesting if "someone could find a way expertise in one grants an authority to speak You could take off the Brooklyn Bridge's around Arthur C. Clarke's law" which states in die other." asphalt, remove half of the cables, make the mat "from the point of view of a technologi­ Is he referring to the Church's crossing piers a little narrower, make the span shorter, cally less advanced civilization, the technology the boundary by telling Galileo what he and you would still have a quite viable of a very advanced civilization is essentially could and could not say about celestial bridge. In fact you'd have a bridge much like indistinguishable from magic." There is a sim­ mechanics? Er, no. It seems the shoe was on

64 January/February 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER the other foot. It was Galileo who was the Of all the articles I read, Timothy Moy's carbon balance. The mechanism became transgressor of boundaries, says Moy. stuck in my mind the most. I'm used to athe­ evolution of a species which would mine Why, the scientist actually had the effron­ ists, from Catholic backgrounds, using the surplus carbon as a resource, and return tery to think that his expertise qualified him Galileo as a reason for reason. Now I find it to the atmosphere. If this was our pur­ to tell the Pope he was wrong about the way out a different, and more historically logical, pose, then clearly, when the balance has heavenly bodies moved. Moreover, Galileo point of view. Brilliant! I love it when your been sufficiently restored (which will be had the nerve to think that "science had to magazine mixes history and skeptical issues. soon, at present or predicted rates), there replace theology as the Church's principal Again, brilliant! will be no further need for our species. mode of understanding." Small wonder, says Does Lovelock feel that religious wars will Tommy Kelly be Gaia's solution, and could that be why Moy, "that ihc Inquisition dropped the ham­ Tuscaloosa, Alabama we were evolved not only with rational mer on him." I guess the jerk had it coming. minds but also with religious impulses? Or Moy casts Galileo in the role of the crack­ will it be accomplished just by disease and pot pseudoscientist, and Pope Urban VIII as famine? In what sense should we ". . . put the skeptical . It seems Galileo's our trust in Gaia"? proof that the Earth revolved around the Sun wasn't rigorous enough to satisfy the good S. Pearre, Jr. Pope, so he forbade him to promote hclio- Halifax, Nova Scotia, ccntrism as a true description of the heavens. Canada Apparently, the Church's demand for sci­ entific rigor did not extend to the geocentric Your Science and Region 2001 issue was theory, which remained the official Church Lovelock's 'A Way of Life' excellent. However, I have to question the view of reality because it was supported by logic of including James Lovelock's "A Way the Bible. Meanwhile, as Moy points out, of Life for Agnostics?" about the so-called I admit to being somewhat offended by much of the Church hierarchy already Gaia theory. James Lovelock's view that agnostics are in believed in heliocentrism because it was need of a way of life ("A Way of Life For I recognize that despite all the hocus empirically the most accurate hypothesis on Agnostics?"). I think that we already have pocus at their foundation, the primary orga­ which to base the Church calendar! one—called agnosticism. Nevertheless I tried nized religions such as Judaism and Jeff White to figure out exactly what he was talking Christianity do fulfill real-world functions such as assisting the poor, providing moral Toronto, Ontario about, but failed to do so. Although he instruction for children, etc., and despite my Canada claims that Gaia is a falsifiable scientific the­ ory, he never indicates what its falsifiable agnosticism I have contributed to a Catholic charity and plan on sending my little boy to Timothy Moy paints the Roman Catholic claims might be, and he speaks of it using a private, probably religious, school. Church as a patient, understanding institu­ words that are more appropriate for religious tion that was attempting a compromise with belief, such as "revere," "trust," "purpose," But Gaia tries my tolerance, as it eschews Galileo. It was not. Read the transcripts of the and "commitment." His disdain for reduc- the real-world value of religion and embraces trials and which are available and it is tionism and his mischaracterization of only the hocus pocus of it. In fact, by having evident they wanted to shut him up even if it opposing views (such as his assertion that "faith" in or "putting trust in" Gaia, as meant killing. His friendship with the Pope modern biology supposes "organisms [to] Lovelock suggests, one adds an imaginary was the only thing that saved his life. interact only with other organisms") rein­ dimension to natural phenomena that can force the notion that he is not discussing sci­ only impede understanding in those who Moy is correct when he states "For most ence as it is generally understood. If he had embrace it and speak its pseudoscientific lan­ of the medieval and Renaissance periods ... hoped to recruit this agnostic to his position, guage. Gaia breeds extremism and interferes the primary supporter of research and teach­ then he has failed completely. with rational discussion of important envi­ ing in the sciences was the Roman Catholic ronmental issues. Church." This is a spin put on by modern theologians. The Church was the only act in John G. Fletcher Philip Blumel town, so any progress that was made was on Livermore, California Lake Worth, Florida their watch. Their purpose was to do research that proved the literal Bible, not research to While I admire the selfless and caring The Gaia theory has always struck me as advance mankind. They impeded progress in aspects of the Gaia hypothesis I am con­ the ultimate in warm and fuzzy metaphys­ chemistry, geology, geography, medicine, and cerned about some of its larger implica­ ical nonsense. It needlessly complicates physics at every turn. tions. As Lovelock says, we must ". . . look and obfuscates what is glaringly obvious, The Church theories of "God's Will" and more closely at the ethical and philosophi­ that if life on Earth were not well adapted heresy combined with "Index" set progress cal aspects of Gaia." We must, of course, to the terrestrial environment, we would back centuries and in the process murdered ask the great human question "Why are we not be discussing the matter. With trillions thousands. here?," and perhaps this can be addressed of stars out there, many almost certainly within the Gaian framework. For many John Tomikel with planets in stable orbits, there are millions of years before our appearance. bound to be millions of "near-Earth" Corry, Pennsylvania Earth, through various mechanisms, had kinds, and, by the same token, some able been sequestering carbon, and perhaps Gaia The writer is author of Searching For God, to sustain carbon-based organisms. I can felt the need for a means of redressing the published by Allegheny Press. imagine an intelligent bark beetle pondcr-

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2002 65 ing why it is that the oak tree on which it gious beliefs and paranormal beliefs that universe is one big crap shoot? has deposited its eggs is so well suited to have a religious component such as astrology, If I understand Young correctly, his views their growth. It would have its own Gaia by which I mean serious astrology not sun preclude the question, "What is the meaning situation, but so what? Other trees support sign nonsense. I know of two surveys that are of life?" because science cannot provide a different insects, often uniquely; if not, relevant here. provable answer to this question. Arc you they wouldn't co-exist, and what does that Early in 1993 a survey of twenty-four going to tell people to stop asking the ques­ prove? We fit in here so nicely because we Dutch astrologers (mostly teachers) found tion because you say there is no answer? must or not be at all! they believed astrology is linked with an Whatever you think about the book of Job, ordering principle such as God. So at least whether you understand it or not, whether Arthur Porges some astrologers believe astrology has a you agree with the answer God gave Job or Pacific Grove, California religious component. Later the same year not, it docs raise the questioning of the British astrologer Roger 1 11 mi sent readers meaning of life. Why be good?, and Is life of the Astrological journal a thirty- ultimately fair? 1 do not think that theists Sparks' Belief Survey item questionnaire exploring their views have all the answers, but is often more on astrology and God. He received 288 important to ask the right question. Just Glenn Sparks's article "The Relationship replies, about a fifth of the readership because people do not know the answer or Between Paranormal Beliefs and Religious (sec Astrological journal 1993, 35, cannot prove that an answer is right, does Beliefs" recalls to mind the effect that reli­ 280-290 and 332-334). Respondents not mean that the question is foolish or gious instruction has had on my own (now were mostly from Britain, age group unimportant or without meaning. adult) three children. mostly 40-60, most with a conventional Rev. Roger A. Sawtelle When they were in grade school 1 made religious upbringing, and sixty percent Lowell, a point of having all three attend Sunday were female. One-third were hobbyists, School at the local Episcopal church. I the rest were full- or part-time or would- wanted them to know something about be professional astrologers. their heritage, good and bad, so that in In percent, the most relevant responses later life, when they encountered refer­ were: Has astrology molded your adult reli­ ences to Job or St. Augustine, or other gious views? (a great deal 37, somewhat 34, prominent figures in the Judeo-Christian not really 29). Do you believe some kind of tradition, they wouldn't appear as com­ God exists? (yes 78, perhaps 15, no 7). Docs plete ignoramuses. All three dropped out astrology make you think a God is more or of Sunday School when they reached high less likely? (more likely 57, less likely 3. no school, and all three arc now healthy and difference 40). The sample is self-selected so well-balanced skeptics. the results need to be approached with cau­ The point I wish to make is that a mod­ tion. But as they stand it would seem that est amount of religious instruction may act our expectation is confirmed. as a kind of inoculation, that an attenuated strain of dogma seems to act as an immu­ Geoffrey Dean nization against the more far-out and funda­ Perth, Western Australia mentalist sects. I've observed diat many Australia young people who have fallen into crazy cults tend to come from families where no Weinberg's 'Designer religious instruction was provided; thus, Young's 'Impersonal Universe?' when adolescent doubts begin to surface and the hormones Stan squirting, these young Universe' The article I liked best is also the one I disagree folks are ill-equipped to deal with the bland­ with most, since it perpetuates a key miscon­ ishments of these more questionable sects. If I recently received my copy of the Science ception in the science-religion discussion. they had been metaphorically vaccinated and Religion issue and found it quite inter­ When pondering "A Designer with a mild form of modified religious esting. I found the article "Science and Universe?," Steven Weinberg rightly discerns instruction, they would be in a better posi­ Religion in an Impersonal Universe" by Matt "the question .. . worth answering ... is tion to resist. Young most revealing, especially his proposal whether the universe shows signs of having of ideas to take the place of theism. You can't been designed by a deity more or less like Donald Draganski replace one worldview without an alternate. those of traditional monotheistic religions— Evanston, Illinois I do have some questions however. not necessarily a figure from the ceiling of I do agree that Einstein's "unbounded the Sistine Chapel, but at least some sort of Glenn Sparks found almost no links between admiration for the structure of the world so personality, some intelligence, who created paranormal beliefs and religious beliefs in far as our science can reveal it" is a beautiful the universe...." general, whereas Erich Goode (same issue vision, but for those of us who do not live and Yet to Weinberg, traditional deities (such page 56) found links with religious beliefs work in a scientific ivory tower, but instead in as those named "God") cannot correctly be that have a paranormal component. Goode's the busy and chaotic world of everyday life, considered more philosophical, abstract enti­ results seem unremarkable, so we might rea­ that vision can quickly become very thin. ties; "You are certainly free to think ... of sonably expect to find links between reli­ What do you say when scientists find that the something much more abstract, some cosmic

66 Januaiy/Februafy 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER spirit of order and harmony, as Einstein sophical and intellectual project so large and the existence of an omniscient being. did. . . . But then I don't know why you use so integral to the human condition. As just John Grant words like 'designer' or 'God,' except per­ one example, this quote from Steven Baltimore, Maryland haps as a form of protective coloration." Weisberg's essay: "Either you mean some­ "Protective coloration" indeed! What, is thing definite by a God ... or you don't. It Editor's Note: We unfortunately introduced (at calling an abstract creator "God" now some you don't, then what are we talking about?" least) two typos into Arthur C. Clarke's essay: sort of cowardly, chameleon act of cultural This is fine science talk but pointless and "proposition" for "preposition" on page 62 in camouflage? impertinent people talk. Substitute any of the last line of the second complete paragraph Surely Weinberg is not so naive, or arro­ the following words for the words "a God" in in the left-band column: and "now"for "how" gant, to think that only he and (perhaps!) his Weinberg's sentence: hope, love, hate, on page 63 in the sixth line of the fourth com­ contemporaries have workable notions of the fidelity, pain, compassion, success, failure, plete paragraph in the right-hand column. would-be divine. beauty, triteness, joy, anger, justice. Countless believers throughout history We humans live in a world of uncertainty, have also considered their God a "cosmic whose borders often escape us. Religion is our spirit of order and harmony," and yet Still effort to give this world some form and mean­ Nickell's 'Shroud of Turin' find it fitting to address Him or Her (or It) ing, and succeeds in ways that science neither as God. What's wrong with that? Why is can nor should attempt. Our lives play out on Many thanks for the Science and Religion doing so an acr of so-called "protective col­ a field that is to a considerable degree ill issue. As for the Nickell article on the oration"? Protection from what? Indeed, defined and inconsistent of necessity, and reli­ Shroud of Turin, even the Gospels don't even Einstein himself spoke of his "cosmic gion mirrors this reality. Though we may find offer much support for the authenticity of its mythology primitive, religion can give us religious feeling" as God so often that that relic. Matthew (27:59), Mark (15:46), an intellectual and moral space in which to Niels Bohr quipped, "Stop telling God and Luke (23:53) all say that the body of find degrees of freedom and restraint from what to do!" But honestly, what other Jesus was wrapped (or rolled or bundled) in rigid definition and scientific cant. word is there? sindon, Greek for fine linen. Sindon is a material, not a shroud, for which the Greek Whether personal or not, such a being, Cress Kearny is speiron. No spices, either, 'cause the spice force, collection of forces, matter, energy, Oakland, California nature, and/or other suitable, similar entity ladies got there too late. Further, Luke (or entities) is deserving of our contempla­ (24:13) says Peter saw "the linen strips tion, attention, respect, reverence and awe— only" (la othonia mono) lying in the empty if not worship. God—the endless creative Clarke's 'Credo' tomb. Not a piece of whole cloth, but mystery—thus often evokes what is called a strips, bandages, pieces, of sindon, a plain- "cosmic religious feeling," in scientists and I am writing to point out an error in the weave fabric. nonscientists alike. "Arthur C. Clarke's 'Credo'" article. I am refer­ John gives more detail. Nicodemus brings ring to the sentence "I also, rather mischie­ As soon as such a common-sense defini­ some seventy pounds of myrrh and aloes and vously, demolished Alpha by invoking Kurt tion gets wide hearing, may we all go about the corpse is tied up or bound (edesan) in Godel, whose notorious 'incompleteness of our business more humbly and ignore mere linen strips (othonois) along with the aromar- knowledge' theorem quite obviously rules out ics above. Later Peter sees the linen bandages differences of opinion. We can comfortably the existence of an omniscient being." disregard the more absurd attributions to (ta othonia), and the handkerchief (soudarion) deity, and debate more informed speculations. The Godel Incompleteness Theorem which was on his head. Was the linen not by applies only to formal logic systems axiom- I concur with Carl Sagan (as noted in this time soaked in bodily fluids, oils, resin, atized in a certain way. What it says is that Frazier's review of A Biologist Looks at and savoury sawdust? if the logical system contains enough math­ Religion) that "there is true spirituality in our The Holy Shroud is linen of herring­ ematical axioms to include arithmetic and bone twill weave, one piece, spice and reverence and awe for nature." Let's not hes­ is consistent, then there are some true unguent free. The soudarion, as Nickell itate to call the mystery that begins with but statements that cannot be proved within may not entirely end with nature, "God," the system. In fact, Godel showed how to points out, would have blurred the shroud however much we may wish to distinguish write such a statement. The important face. The History Channel Ancient our sophisticated belief and practice from point is that Godel Incompleteness Mystery video entitled Shroud of Turin ancient tribal and nomadic religion which Theorem has to do with provability in log­ (AAE-12310) documents for all to view the employed the same term in the global strug­ ical systems, not with knowledge in gen­ radiocarbon dating of the relic some years gle for understanding. eral. In fact, Godel knew that his statement ago. The Church was most cooperative in is true, even though he showed that it can­ that project, and the Archbishop of Turin, Nathan Braun not be proved. Cardinal Anastasio Ballestrero, publically Christian Skeptics Society announced the result of the tests—the http://skeptical.faithwcb.com Therefore it is misleading to call linen dates 1260-1390 A.D. in October Godel's result the "incompleteness of 1988. Certainly this was one of the finer knowledge" theorem, because it does not Yout effort to contrapose religion and sci­ examples of faith and reason making nice, deal with knowledge in general. After all, ence was less successful than it was two years and a refreshing no-nonsense approach to we may know many things that have noth­ ago. CSICOP should probably avoid this matters religious. discussion in the future. While admirably ing to do with formal logical systems. equipped to take on the usual nonsense. Thus the Godel Incompleteness Theorem Samuel O. Donelson CSICOP is ill equipped to tackle a philo­ does not rule out, obviously or otherwise, Fayetteville. Arkansas D

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2002 67 LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

Gardner's 'Multiverses and According to Martin Gardner, all multiverse serious charge; so it's a happy fact that theories are "frivolous fantasies" which have so philosophers of science are by and large inno­ Blackberries' far not provided any testable predictions. cent on that score. In fact, as David Lewis With this statement, Gardner lumps together himself points out, he's quite accustomed to As a physicist (but not quantum theorist) essentially different theories. The splitting the "incredulous stares" of his colleagues. who has long been fascinated by the philo­ universe hypothesis of Hugh Everett, David One last clarification. "Both the MWI sophical issues of quantum mechanics. I read Deutsch, and others does indeed appear and Lewis's possible worlds," Gardner writes, wirh interest Martin Gardner's column rather bizarre 10 human minds, albeit there "Multiverses and Blackberries" (September/ "allow time travel into the past...[where] as seem to be few alternatives if we wish to rec­ October 2001). Gardner describes the appar­ you enter your past, the universe splits into a ent absurdity of the Many Worlds oncile quantum mechanics with an objective, new one in which you and your duplicate Interpretation (MWI) of quantum mechan­ observer-independent physical world. The coexist." A more careful reading of Lewis, ics, citing it as a "radical violation of Occam's concept of Andrei Linde, further developed however, soon shows that this misportrays his razor." This would be true if MWI was an ad more recently by Lee Smolin, is unrelated to position. To wit, Lewis explicitly posits that hoc postulate in quantum mechanics, but the the splitting universe hypothesis and, in fact, "unactualized possible" or Timothys opposite is actually the case. docs make predictions that can be tested arc. in fact, "confined each to his own world." experimentally. To explain the fine tuning of There is no question that wave functions Intriguingly, Lewis is also bearish on talk fundamental physical constants allowing a describing objects at the microscopic level do of time travel involving such multiverse- universe with stars, galaxies, and life, Smolin branch into parallel states. However macro­ apparati as Deutsch supports. For details, proposes that each black hole generates a new scopic reality is not observed to exist as paral­ interested readers are invited to consult lel states, so postulates such as probability universe inside, in which the initially ran­ Lewis's "The Paradoxes of Time Travel," vol. amplitude and wave function collapse were domly assigned physical constants become 13, American Philosophical Quarterly (1976), introduced in early quantum theory to squelch slightly changed. The consequence is obvious: pages 145-152. the branching process. This Copenhagen the more black holes a given universe pro­ Interpretation and other theories that followed duces the more daughter universes it will Timothy Chambers all accord special status to arbitrary branches of have, resulting in "evolution" of blackhole- Department of Philosophy the wave function (Bohm's theory is no excep­ producing universes. Smolin's key assumption Brown University tion), require wave functions or potentials that is that the efficiency of black hole production Providence, Rhode Island violate relativity, and typically treat "observers" is positively correlated with hospitability to as special entities not themselves subject to life. This concept elegantly explains the quantum theory (as though we arc not part of improbability of our being here as a process of 1 was shocked at Martin Gardner's reaction the universe we live in). continuous evolution, from the Big Bang to to the Many Worlds Interpretation by stat­ ing, "I can only marvel at how low the state Then a remarkable thing happened. human culture. For Gardner "the conjecture to which today's has Everett and others discovered that if the wave that there is just one universe ... is infini- fallen." This low state includes some power­ function collapse postulates were dropped, tively simpler and easier to believe than that ful proponents in Hawking and Weinberg. the observable results of quantum theory there are ... billions of worlds." However, remained intact because of decoherence nature doesn't appear to care about the sim­ MWI is no less palatable an explanation effects. Collapse postulates or quantum plicity of our beliefs. Before Copernicus, few of the duel-slit experiment than having the potentials that select particular branches of individuals could imagine that planetary sys­ wave function collapse when an intelligent the wave function were superfluous. No tems could be "as plentiful as blackberries." being observes it. more paradoxes, causality violations, or New We should have learned our lesson! What qualifies as an intelligent being? Age nonsense. Just a simple fully explanatory Would the wave function collapse if a chimp Bernd Mayer theory that implies (not postulates) the exis­ made the observation? Would Schrodinger's Graz, Austria tence of parallel universes. cat assume a dead or live state if his dog Gardner writes that "there is not the peeked in the box? slightest shred of reliable evidence" for paral­ The truth is. both of these interpreta­ When the singular scrivener Martin Gardner lel universes. On the contrary, if the simplest tions seem "grotesque" and "silly" but that dubs Deutsch and Lewis's multiverse theories as possible axiom set that accounts for all that does not preclude one from being both true we observe (and don't observe) predicts the "frivolous fantasies... lacking the slightest shred and parsimonious. The fact that many physi­ existence of parallel universes, then the evi­ of reliable evidence," I nod in agreement. But cists choose to ignore the issue does not dentiary burden is on those who would when he goes on to "marvel at the low state to make the observations in this classic, empir­ install additional ad hoc axioms into quan­ which today's philosophy of science has fallen," I ical experiment go away. tum theory solely to suppress parallel uni­ think some record-correcting is in order. verses. For there is not the slightest shred of 7b be sure, a few philosophers have touted Gary Barker evidence for random superluminal wave the putative merits of multiverses. Is this Saginaw, Michigan function collapse or quantum potentials. enough to disparage an entire field of inquir­ And what docs Occam's razor tell us about ers? If so, then physics itself would in be trou­ adding axioms to theories that already fully ble, owing to its multiverse standard-bearers, I thoroughly enjoyed Martin Gardner's look explain observations? David Deutsch and Hugh Everett III. at the wild world(s) of "Multiverses and So perhaps Gardner believes that most (or Blackberries." However, I think that Occam Brian Wowk many) philosophers of science pay homage to is still pondering the question. He is asking Corona, California multiverse theories? That would indeed be a which of the following is simpler:

68 January/February 2002 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

1. A single universe with a mechanism to Correction: prevent additional ones from cropping up. 2. Multiple universes with a mechanism Dropped Paragraph in to create them. Sheldrake Article Paul C. Anagnostopoulos A note from the Editor: Carlisle, Massachusetts In Rupert Sheldrake's "Research on die Feeling of Being Stared At," a Follow-Up section arti­ If Martin Gardner really believes there is cle in our March/April 2001 issue, only one universe, then how is he able to 25(2):58-61, it turns out that we inadvertently quote clerihew poet Armand T. Ringer, who dropped a paragraph in production, and the happens to be Gardner's anagrammatic dou­ omission changed his meaning and rendered ble in another universe? part of his argument difficult to comprehend. The paragraph in question had been in his arti­ Don Z. Block cle through galley proofs, which Sheldrake had Malvern, Pennsylvania seen and approved, but was somehow acciden­ tally omitted in the layout process. No one noticed until Sheldrake did recently. In fact, a Unprovable Negatives? letter to the editor in our July/August 2001 issue by Glenn Rimbey expressed confusion Don't some of us love to pick on your excel­ about a Sheldrake comment about Richard Wiseman's ineffective stares. "No wonder he- lent frequent contributor, Ralph Estling! I skeptical broadcast on August 2, 2001. was confused," Sheldrake tells us. "With the enjoy his thoughtful essays, and he expresses The subject was magnetic fuel enhancers key paragraph omitted, my argument makes reasonable ideas fairly. Maybe he can clarify for automobiles. This subject was dis­ almost no sense." one point of logic. In his answer in "Forum," cussed briefly in the January/February September/October 2001 issue we read ". . . 1998 issue of 5/, with no definite conclu­ We apologize for the dropped paragraph, as I'm sure you know, negatives arc impossi­ sions other than: "buyer beware." How the which should have appeared after the first ble to disprove in logic." Channel 7 (ABC in L.A.) newsroom two lines at the top of the third column on He is not alone. In Charles M. Wynn and page 60 of the March/April 2001 issue. It became aware of the magnetic fuel econ­ Arthur W. Wiggins, Quantum Leaps in the appears in its entirety below: omy enhancers and why they decided it Wrong Direction (2001; a good brief sum- was a newsworthy item is immaterial. mar)' of the last ten years of SKEPTICAL I here is already experimental evi­ What is important is that they decided to INQUIRER, by the way—you may want to dence that different starers can obtain test the devices and report the results of very different results. In tests carried review it), I read on page 165 in italics: It is their tests to the public. While their tests out through closed-circuit television, impossible to prove a universal negative. cannot be considered scientific they at Richard Wiseman, a skeptic, obtained Whose theorem is this? (Oops—can't be least showed skepticism. results at chance levels when he was a theorem, being a negative! Watch for para­ They tested two vehicles for a month the starer. In the same experiment, dox when you sec a self-referring statement.) without the devices and a month with the another starer, Marilyn Schlitz, Whose conjecture is this? I can't find it in the devices and estimated the average gasoline obtained statistically significant posi­ three logic textbooks on my shelf. mileage for each. What they reported to tive results (Wiseman and Schlitz On the contrary I have seen excellent the public was that for both vehicles tested, 1997), replicating her significant pos­ proofs of propositions like DeMorgan's the gasoline mileage was poorer with the itive results in previous experiments Laws. clearly negatives, the simple proof of magnetic devices installed than without of this kind (Schlitz and LaBerge the negation of p-and-not-p based on them. While public notice of the likely 1994, 1997). • Russell's first axiom, the classic proof that the ineffectiveness of the magnetic device may square root of two cannot be expressed as a not be "lighting a candle in the dark." it ratio of relatively prime integers, illustrating contrasts sharply with the increasing num­ indirect proof, and on an on. The letters column is a forum for views ber of programs labeled news with decreas­ Are we talking about existence proof on matters raised in previous issues. ing quality of programming. When even Letters should be no more than 225 only? What is it we can't do in logic? the National Geographic channel carries words. Due to the volume of letters Richard S. Dolliver advertisements by "Miss Cleo," this broad­ not all can be published. Address let­ ters to Letters to the Editor. SKEPTICAL Windsor, Connecticut cast by the Channel 7 newsroom affords a INQUIRER. Send by mail to 944 Deer Dr. rare opportunity to compliment them for NE. Albuquerque. NM 87122; by fax to their skeptical attitude. All I can do is to 505-828-2080; or by e-mail to let- TV Station's Skeptical publicly give them my ten "attaboys," [email protected] (include name and Channel 7. I would hope that CSICOP can address). Investigation Laudable do more.

The purpose of this letter is to praise a Donald F. Weitzel local (Los Angeles) television station for its Winnetka, California

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/Febiuary 2002 69 THE COMMITTEE FOR THE SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATION OF CLAIMS OF THE PARANORMAL AT THE CENTER FOR INQUIRY-INTERNATIONAL (ADJACENT TO THE STATE UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK AT BUFFALO) AN INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION Network of Affiliated Organizations International ARGENTINA. CAIRP, Enrique Marquez. Director. E- CHINA. China Association for Science and Tech­ the Investigation of the Anomalous mail: deschaveecvtci.com.ar Jose 35 - "C" nology, China. Shen Zhenyu Research Center, Phenomena (KCIAP) Kazakhstan. Dr. Sergey Buenos Aires (1406), Argentina, www.cairp.org. P.O. Box 8113, Beijing China. Hong Kong Efimov, Scientific Secretary. E-mail: efime AUSTRALIA. Canberra Skeptics. Canberra Skeptics. Hong Kong. Brad Collins, P.O. Box afi.south-capital.kz. Astrophysical Institute Australia. Peter Barrett President. PO Box 555. 1010. Shatin Central Post Office. Shatin NT China. Kamenskoye Plato Alma-Ata, 480020 Republic Civic Square ACT 2608 Australia. Australian COSTA RICA. Iniciativa para la Promoci6n del of Kazakhstan. Committee for the Scien­ Skeptics Inc. Australia. Barry Williams. Pensamiento Critico (IPPEQ San Jose. Victor tific Expertise of Claims of the Paranormal Executive Officer. Tel. 61-2-9417-2071; e-mail: Quiros V. Tel.: 506 275 43 52; e-mail: victorcr (CSECOP). skepticsekasm.com.au. PO Box 268. Roseville eracsa.co.cr. A.P. 1513-1002 Paseo de los KOREA. Korea PseudoScience Awareness NSW 2069 Australia, www.skeptics.com.au. Estudiantes San Jose, Costa Rica. http7/webs. (KOPSA) Korea. Dr. Gun-ll Kang, Director. Tel.: —Hunter Region demasiado.com/via. 82-2-393-2734; e-mail: KOPSAechollian.net. Newcastle/Hunter Valley. Dr. Colin Keay. CZECHOSLOVAKIA. Sisyfos-Czech Skeptics 187-11 Bukahyun-dong. Sudaemun-ku. Seoul President. Tel.: 61-2-49689666; e-mail: Club. Czech Republic. Ms. Ing. Olga Kracikova, 120-190 Korea www.kopsa.or.kr. bolideehunterlink.net au. PO Box 166, Waratah Secretary. Tel.: 420-2-24826691; e-mail: MALTA. Society for Investigating the NSW 2298. Australia Darwin Skeptics. olgakracikovaeemail.cz. Hastalska 27 Praha 1 Credibility of Extraordinary Claims (SICEC) Northern Territory, Australia. Simon Potter. 110 00 Czech Republic, www.fi.muni.cz/sisyfos/ Malta. Vanni Pule, Chairman. Tel.: 356-381994; Secretary. Tel.: 61-8-8932-7552; e-mail: dwnskep- (in Oech). e-mail: pulevanevol.net.mt. P.O. Box 31, ticeais.net.au. PO Box 809. Sanderson NT 0812 Hamrun, Malta. Australia. Gold Coast Skeptics. Queensland, DENMARK. Skeptica: Association of Australia. Lilian Derrick, Secretary. Tel.: 61-7- Independent Danish Skeptics, Denmark. MEXICO. Mexican Association for Skeptical Re­ 5593-1882; e-mail: Imderricketelstra.easymail. Willy Wegner. Tel.: 45-75-64-84-02; e-mail: search (SOMIE) Mexico. Mario Mendez-Acosta, com.au. PO Box 8348. GCMC Bundall QLD 4217 skepticaeskeptica.dk. Vibevej 7 A DK 8700 Apartado Postal 19-546 D.F. 03900 Mexico. Australia. Queensland Skeptics Assoc. Inc. 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Welgedacht Bellville 7530 South Africa. Krakra 22 BG-1504 Sofia, Bulgaria. Indian Rationalist Association, India. Sanal SPAIN. El Investigador Esceptico, Spain. Felix CANADA. Alberta Skeptics, Alberta. Greg Hart. Edamaruku. E-mail: edamarukueyahoo.com. Ares de Bias Gamez/Ares/Martinez. P.O. Box 904. Chairman. Tel.: 403-215-1440; e-mail: hartg 779, Pocket 5. Mayur Vihar 1, New Delhi 110 091 Donostia-San Sebastian 20080 Spain. ARP- ehumaneffort.com. PO Box 5571, Station India. Dravidar Kazhagam. southern India. K. Sociedad para el Avance del Pensamiento •A', Calgary, Alberta T2H 1X9 Canada. Veeramani, Secretary General. Tel.: 9144- Critico ARP-SAPC Spain. Sergio L6pez. http://abskeptics.homestead com. Alberta 5386555; e-mail: periyarevsnl.com. Periyar Borgoftoz. Tel.: 34-933-010220; e-mail: arpearp- Skeptics, British Columbia Skeptics. BC and Thidal. 50, E.F.K. Sampath Road Vepery, Chennai sapc.org. Apartado de Correos. 310 Alberta. Lee Moller. 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Taiwan Perspective. Toronto Skeptical Inquirers (TSI) Toronto. 049-686870; e-mail: polidoroecicap.org. P.O. UKRAINE. Oleg Bakhtiarov 3-B Khmelnitskogo St.. Henry Gordon, President. Tel.: 905-771-1615; e- Box 1117 35100 Padova. Italy, www..org. mail: henry gordonehotmail.com. 343 Clark Kiev 252001 Ukraine. Ave.. W„ Suite 1009. Thornhill. ON L4J 7K5 JAPAN. Japan Anti-PseudoscierKe Activities Net­ . The Skeptic Magazine. United Canada. Ottawa Skeptics, Ottawa. Ontario. work (JAPAN) Japan. Ryutarou Minakami. chair­ Kingdom. Toby Howard. E-mail: tobyecs.man. Greg Singer. E-mail: skepticeottawa.com. PO person. E-mail: skepticee-mail.ne.jp. c/o Ohta ac.uk. P.O. Box 475 Manchester M60 2TH Box 1237. Station B. Ottawa. Ontario KIP 5R3 Publishing Company. Epcot Bid, IF, 22. Arakicho. United Kingdom. Canada.www.admissions..ca/-addalby/ Shinjuku-ku Tokyo 160-8571 Japan. Japan VENEZUELA. U Asociacidn Racional y Esceptica de cats/skeptic.html. Sceptiques du Quebec, Skeptics. Japan. Dr. Jun Jugaku. E-mail: Venezuela (A.R.E.V.). Guido David Nunez Quebec. Alan Bonnier. Tel.: 514-990-8099. C.P. jugakujneccnao.ac.jp. Japan Skeptics, Business Mujica. 10th Street. 13th av. corner. Mini centro 202, Succ. Beaubien Montreal. Quebec H2G 3C9 Center for Academic Societies. Japan 5-16-9 Honk- comercial Oasis. Valera, Trujillo state, Canada, www.sceptiques.qc.ca. omagome. Bjnkyo-ku Tokyo 113-8622 Japan. Venezuela. Web site: www.geocities.com/escep KAZAKHSTAN. Kazakhstan Commission for ticosvenezuela. e-mail: arlongehcrc.org. 2277 Winding Woods Inquiring Skeptics of Upper New York United States Dr., Tucker, GA 30084 US (ISUNY) Upper New York. Michael Sofka, 8 IOWA. Central Iowa Skeptics (CIS) Central Iowa, Providence St., Albany, NY 12203 US. ALABAMA. Alabama Skeptics, Alabama. Emory Rob Beeston. Tel.: 515-285-0622; e-mail: NORTH CAROLINA. Carolina Skeptics North Kimbrough. Tel.: 205 759-2624 3550 Water­ webguyedangerousideas.net. 5602 SW 2nd St. Carolina. Eric Carlson. President. Tel.: 336-758- melon Road. Apt. 28A. Northport. AL 35476 US. Des Moines, IA 50315 US. www.dangerous 4994; e-mail: ecarlsonewfu.edu Physics Skeptics Freethought Forum of Alabama ideas.net. Department. Wake Forest University. Winston- Richard G. Davis. Tel: 256-751-4447; e-mail ILLINOIS. Rational Examination Association of Salem. NC 27109 US. www.carolinaskeptics.org. RRBama66ehotmail.com. Lincoln Land (REALL) Illinois. David OHIO. Central Ohioans for Rational Inquiry ARIZONA. Tucson Skeptics Inc- Tucson. AZ. James Bloomberg. Chairman. Tel.: 217-726-5354, (CORI) Central Ohio. Charlie Hazlett. President. McGaha. E-mail. JMCGAHAePimaCC.Pima.EDU. e-mail: chairmanOreall.org. PO Box 20302, Tel.: 614-878-2742; e-mail: charlie©hazlett.net 5100 N. Sabino Foothills Dr.. Tucson. AZ 85715 US. Springfield. IL 62708 US. www.reall.org. PO Box 282069, Columbus OH 43228 US. South Phoenix Skeptics. Phoenix. AZ. Michael Stack- KENTUCKY. Kentucky Assn. of Science Shore Skeptics (SSS) Cleveland and counties. pole. P.O. Box 60333. Phoenix. AZ 8S082 US. Educators and Skeptics (KASES) Kentucky. Jim Kutz. Tel.. 440 942-5543; e-mail: jimkutz CALIFORNIA. Sacramento Organization for Prof. Robert Baker, 3495 Castleton Way, North eearthlink.net. PO Box 5083. Cleveland, OH Rational Thinking (SORT) Sacramento. CA. Ray Lexington. KY 40502 US. Contact Fred Bach at 44101 US. www.southshoreskeptics.org/. Spangenburg, co-founder. Tel. 916-978-0321; e- e-mail: fwbachevisto.com. Association for Rational Thought (ART) mail: kitrayequiknet.com. PO Box 2147. LOUISIANA. Baton Rouge Proponents of Rational Cincinnati. Roy Auerbach president Tel: 513- Carmkhael. CA 95609-2147 US. www.quiknet Inquiry and Scientific Methods (BR PRISM) 731-2774. e-mail: raaecinci.rr.com. PO Box com/-kitray/index1.html. Bay Area Skeptics Louisiana. Marge Schroth. Tel.: 22S-766-4747. 425 12896, Cincinnati, OH 45212 US. www.cincinnati skeptics.org. (BAS) Sa :isco—Bay Area. Tuny rMcCarroll . Carriage Way, Baton Rouge, LA 70808 US. Chair. Tel.: 415 927-1548; e-mail: tullyannepac MICHIGAN. Great Lakes Skeptics (GLS) SE OREGON. Oregonians for Rationality (04R) bell.net. PO Box 2443 Castro Valley, CA 94546- Michigan. Lorna J. Simmons, Contact person. Tel.: Oregon. Dave Chapman. President Tel. 503 292- 0443 US. www.BASkeptics.org. Sacramento 734-525-5731; e-mail: Skeptic3ieaol.com. 31710 2146; e-mail: dchapmaneiccom.com. 7555 Spring Skeptics Society, Sacramento. Terry Sandbek. Cowan Road, Apt. 103, Westland, Ml 48185-2366 Valley Rd NW, Salem, OR 97304 US. www.o4r.org. President. Tel.: 916-489-1774; e-mail: tsand- US. Tri-CKies Skeptics, Michigan. Gary Barker PENNSYLVANIA. Paranormal Investigating bekeispchannel.com. 4300 Auburn Blvd. Ste 206 Tel.: 517-799^502; e-mail barkergesvol.org. Committee of Pittsburgh (PICP) Pittsburgh Sacramento. CA 95841 US. httpV/my.ispchan- 3596 Butternut St., Saginaw, Ml 48604 US. PA. Richard Busch, Chairman. Tel.: 412-366 nel.com/-tsandbek/Skeptics/skeptics.htm. San MINNESOTA. St. Kloud Extraordinary Claim 1000; e-mail: mindfuietelerama.com. 8209 Diego Association for Rational Inquiry Psychic Teaching Investigating Community Thompson Run Rd, Pittsburgh, PA 15237 US. (SDARI) San Diego, CA. county. Keith Taylor, (SKEPTIC) St. Cloud. Minnesota, lerry Mertens. Philadelphia Association for Critical President Tel - 619-220-1045; e-mail: krtay- Tel.: 320-255-2138; e-mail: gmertensestcloud Thinking (PhACT), much of Pennsylvania. Eric lorxyzeaol.com. 945 4th Ave. San Diego. CA state.edu. Jerry Mertens, Psychology Depart Krieg, President. Tel.: 215 885 2089; email: 92l0lUS.httpy/members.tripod.com/sdanweb/h ment, 720 4th Ave. S, St. Cloud State University, eric©phact.org. PO Box 1131, North Wales. PA ome.html. St. Cloud, MN 56301 US. Minnesota Skeptics. 19454 US. www.phact.org/phact. COLORADO. Rocky Mountain Skeptics (RMS) Minnesota. Robert McCoy, 549 Turnpike Rd, TENNESEE. Rationalists of East Tennessee. East Colo.. Wyo.. Utah, Mont. Bela Scheiber, Pres­ Golden Valley, MN SS416 US Tennessee. Carl Ledenbecker. Tel.: 865-982 ident. Tel: 303-444-7537; e-mail: rmscentral© MISSOURI. Gateway Skeptics. Missouri, Steve 8687: e-mail: Aletalieaol.com. 2123 Stony- mindspring.com. P0 Box 7277, Boulder, CO Best, 6943 Amherst Ave., University City, MO brook Rd., Louisville, TN 37777 US. 80306 US. http://bcn.boulder.co.us/community/ 63130 US Kansas City Committee for TEXAS. North Texas Skeptics NTS Dallas/Ft rms. Skeptical Inquiry, Missouri. Verle Muhrer, Worth area. John Blanton. Secretary. Tel.: 972- CONNECTICUT. New England Skeptical Society United Labor Bldg, 6301 Rockhill Road, Suite 306-3187; e-mail: skepticentskeptics.org. PO (NESS) New England MD, 412 Kansas City, MO 64131 US. Box 111794, Carrollton. TX 75011-1794 US. President. Tel.: 203-281-6277; e-mail: NEBRASKA. REASON (Rationalists, Empiracists www.ntskeptics.org. boardetheness.com. PO Box 185526. Hamden, and Skeptics of Nebraska). Chris Peters, PO VIRGINIA. Science ft Reason. Hampton Rds, CT 06518-5526 US. www.theness.com. Box 24358, Omaha, NE 68134; e-mail: rea- Virginia. Lawrence Weinstein, Old Dominion D.C./MARYLAND. National Capital Area sonOiehotmail.com; Web page: www.rea- Univ.-Physics Dept, Norfolk, VA 23529 US. Skeptics NCAS. Maryland, DC, Virginia. D.W. son.ws. WASHINGTON. Society for Sensible Explanations, "Chip" Denman. Tel.: 301-587-3827. 8006 NEW MEXICO. New Mexicans for Science and Western Washington. Tad Cook, Secretary. E-mail: Valley Street. Silver Spring, MD 20910 US. Reason (NMSR) New Mexico. David E. Thomas, k7wvearrl.net. PO Box 45792, Seattle. WA 98145- www.ncas.org. President. Tel.: 505-869-9250; e-mail: dete 0792 US. wwwieattlesketpics.org. FLORIDA. Tampa Bay Skeptics (TBS) Tampa Bay, rt66.com. PO Box 1017. Peralta. NM 87042 US. Florida. Gary Posner, Executive Director. Tel.: www.nmsr.org. The organizations listed above have aims similar 813-584-0603; e-mail: tbskepeaol.com. 5319 NEW YORK. New York Area Skeptics (NYASk) to those of CSICOP but are independent and Archstone Dr. #102, Tampa, FL 33634 US. metropolitan NY area. Ted W. Debiak, autonomous. Representatives of these organiza­ http://members.aol.com/tbskep. President. Tel.: 516-735-8739; e-mail: tions cannot speak on behalf of the CSICOP GEORGIA. Georgia Skeptics (GS) Georgia. infoenyask.com. 57 South Windhorst Ave., Please send updates to Bela Scheiber. PO Box Rebecca Long, President. Tel.: 770-493-6857; 8ethpage, NY 11714-4931 US. www.nyask.com. 4482, Boulder, CO 80306.

SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL CONSULTANTS

George Agog i no, Dept. of Anthropology, Eastern New Laurie Godfrey, anthropologist University of Massachusetts James Pomerantz, Provost and professor of cognitive and Mexico University Gerald Gokfin. mathematkian. Rutgers University, New Jersey linguistic sciences. Brown Univ. Gary Bausiaugh. educational consultant. Center for Donald Goldsmith, astronomer; president. Interstellar Media Gary P. Posner, MD, Tampa. Fla. Curriculum. Transfer and Technology, Victoria. B.C. Canada , astronomer. Southwest Institute for Space Daisie Radner. professor of philosophy. SUNY. Buffalo Richard E. Berendzen, astronomer, Washington, DC. Research, Alamogordo, New Mexico Michael Radner, professor of philosophy. McMaster Martin Bridgstock. lecturer. School of Science. Griffith Clyde F. Herreid. professor of biology, SUNY, Buffalo University Hamilton, Ontario, Canada University. Brisbane. Australia Terence M. nines, professor of psychology, Pace Robert H. Romer, professor of physics, Amherst College Richard Busch, magician/mentalist, Pittsburgh, Penn University, Pleasantville, N.Y. Karl Sabbagh, journalist Richmond, Surrey, England Shawn Carlson, Society for Amateur Scientists. East Michael Hutchinson, author; SMPTICU INQUMK represen Robert J. Samp, assistant professor of education and Greenwich, CT tative, Europe medicine. University of Wisconsin-Madison Roger B. Culver, professor of astronomy, Colorado State Univ. Philip A lama, assoc professor of astronomy, Univ. of Virginia Steven D. Schafersman, asst. professor of geology, Felix Ares de Bias, professor or computer science. William Jarvis, professor of health promotion and public Miami Univ.. Ohio University of Basque. San Sebastian, Spain health, Loma Unda University, School of Public Health Bela Scheiber, • systems analyst Boulder, Colo. Michael R. Dennett writer, investigator. Federal Way, I. W. Kelly, professor of psychology, University of Chris Scott statistician, London, England Washington Saskatchewan Stuart D. Scott Jr., associate professor of anthropology, Sid Deutsch. consultant Sarasota, Fla. Richard H. , MD, Mohawk Valley Physician Health J. Dommanget astronomer. Royale Observatory, Plan. Schenectady, N.Y. SUNY, Buffalo Erwin M. Segal, professor of psychology, SUNY, Buffalo Brussels, Belgium Gerald A. Larue, professor of biblical history and archae­ Nahum J. Duker. assistant professor of pathology. ology. University of So. California. Carla Selby, anthropologist /archaeologist Steven N. Shore, associate professor and chair, Dept. of Temple University William M. London, consumer advocate. Fort Lee. New Jersey Barbara Eisenstadt psychologist educator, clinician, East Rebecca Long, nuclear engineer, president of Georgia Physics and Astronomy, Indiana Univ. South Bend Greenbush, N.Y Council Against Health Fraud. Atlanta. Ga. Waclaw Szybalski, professor, McArdle Laboratory, William Evans, professor of communication. Georgia Thomas R. McDonough, lecturer in engineering. Caltech. University of Wisconsin Madison State University and SET! Coordinator of the Planetary Society Ernest H. Taves, psychoanalyst Cambridge. Mass. John F. Fischer, forensic analyst Orlando. Fla. James E. McGaha. Major, USAF, pilot Sarah G. Thomason, professor of linguistics. University of Robert E. Funk, anthropologist New York State Museum Joel A. Moskowitz. director of medical , Pittsburgh 8 Science Service Calabasas Mental Health Services. Los Angeles. Tim Trachet journalist and science writer, honorary chair­ Eileen Gambrill. professor of social welfare, University of Jan Willem Nienhuys. mathematician. Univ. of man of SKEPP. Belgium. California at Berkeley Eindhoven, the Netherlands Sylvio Garattini. director. Mario Negri Pharmacology John W. Patterson, professor of materials science and •Member. CSICOP Executive Council Institute. Milan. Italy engineering. Iowa State University "Associate Member. CSICOP Executive Council

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Hubble's Panoramic Portrait of a Vast Star-Forming Region

'/'• . • ••••- I NASA's Hubble Space Telescope has snapped a panoramic por­ trait of a vast, sculpted landscape of gas and dust where thou­ sands of stars are being born. This fertile star-forming region, called the 30 Doradus Nebula, has a sparkling stellar center­ piece: the most spectacular cluster of massive stars in our cos­ mic neighborhood of about 25 galaxies. The mosaic picture shows that ultraviolet radiation and high-speed material unleashed by the stars in the cluster, called R136 (the large blue blob left of center), are weaving a tapestry of creation and destruction, triggering the collapse of looming gas and dust clouds and forming pillar-like structures that are incuba­ tors for nascent stars. Credits: NASA, N. Walborn and J. Maii-Apellaniz (Space Telescope Science Institute, Baltimore, MD), R. Barba (La Plata Observatory, La Plata, Argentina) •*• v.:v

; rj„ •.UJIi-r, li\ INVESTIGATION 9? CLAIMS 0? til • 1>AUAM Oiij'i ie Committee is a nonprofit scientific and educational organization. The SKEPTICAL INQUIRER is its official journal. Committee tor the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the scientific community, the media, and the public It also promotes', >rmal encourages the critical investigation of paranormal and and scientific inquiry, critical thinking, science education, and the use ( •Inge-science claims from a responsible, scientific point of view and dis reason in examining important issues, ninates factual information about the results of such inquiries to the

M kvH II n Llei IBI III III TMI M*C1/IK( "0* SCICtJCt »NO "IllON

CENTER FOR INQUIRY INTERNATIONAI • P.O. Box 703 Amherst, NY 14226 • Tel.: (716) 636-1425

WEST EUROPE METRO NEW YORK Los Angeles, California Rossdorf, Germany Montclair, New Jersey PERU FRANCE MOSCOW Lima, Peru Universite of Nice, France Moscow State University