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Alberta Federal Riding Polling Edmonton and Lethbridge September 15-18, 2015

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Alberta Federal Riding Polling Edmonton and Lethbridge September 15-18, 2015 Alberta Federal Riding Polling Edmonton and Lethbridge September 15-18, 2015 1 Focus GTA Fall 2012 ENVIRONICS Methodology • Environics telephone surveys of approximately 500 eligible voters in each of six federal ridings in Alberta between September 15 and 18, 2015 on vote intention in a federal election and various other questions. • The surveys were conducted using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology, and were weighted by age and gender to reflect the demographic makeup of the electorate. • Survey of this magnitude will yield results which can be considered accurate in each riding to within about plus or minus 4.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. 2 Methodology Riding Field dates Sample size Margin of error Edmonton Centre Sept 15-16 547 4.2 Edmonton Manning Sept 15-16 512 4.3 Edmonton Riverbend Sept 15-16 522 4.3 Edmonton West Sept 15-16 618 3.9 St. Albert-Edmonton Sept 15-17 1,030 3.1 Lethbridge Sept 15-18 639 3.8 Continued… 3 Highlights • The Conservatives lead in all six ridings. • The NDP is closest in Edmonton Centre where the Conservatives currently lead by just four points. NDP candidates in Edmonton Riverbend, Edmonton Manning and Lethbridge are also very much in contention. The Liberals are in second place Edmonton West but are losing to Conservative candidate by a very wide margin. • Liberal voters overwhelmingly have the NDP as second choice and vice-versa. In most ridings people think the NDP has the best chance of beating the Conservatives, though in some ridings where Liberals have higher profile candidates they are more likely to be seen as having the better chance. • About one third of voters in each riding feel that the Alberta NDP win has made them more likely to consider the federal NDP 4 James Cumming CPC narrowly leads Gil McGowan of the NDP in Edmonton Centre. Liberal Randy Boissonnault is a distant third. 2015 Edmonton Centre vote intention Decided voters - local 35 39 22 5 candidate (Sept) Election 2011 results 26 46 24 4 1 NDP/McGowan CPC/Cumming Liberal/Boissonnault Green/Parker* Other Q. There will be a Canadian federal election on October 19. If the federal election were held today, which party’s candidate would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name]…? Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a candidate you might be leaning towards supporting here in [riding name]…? *Note: Green Party candidate David Parker’s name added in the Sept survey 5 Ziad Aboultaif CPC leads Aaron Paquette of the NDP by 12 points in Edmonton Manning. Liberal Aujla trails far behind. 2015 Edmonton Manning vote intention Decided voters - local 33 45 18 4 0 candidate (Sept) Election 2011 results 27 55 9 3 6 NDP/Paquette CPC/Aboultaif Liberal/Aujla Green/Vallee Other Q. There will be a Canadian federal election on October 19. If the federal election were held today, which party’s candidate would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name]…? Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a candidate you might be leaning towards supporting here in [riding name]…? 6 Matt Jeneroux CPC leads Brian Fleck NDP by 10 in Edmonton Riverbend; Liberal Chaudary trails far behind 2015 Edmonton Riverbend vote intention Decided voters - local 34 44 18 0 candidate (Sept) 4 Election 2011 results 21 59 15 5 NDP/Fleck CPC/Jeneroux Liberal/Chaudary Green/Kennedy Other Q. There will be a Canadian federal election on October 19. If the federal election were held today, which party’s candidate would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name]…? Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a candidate you might be leaning towards supporting here in [riding name]…? 7 Kelly McCauley CPC has a 19 point lead over Liberal Karen Leibovici in Edmonton West; Heather Mackenzie NDP trails 2015 Edmonton West vote intention Decided voters - local 19 48 29 40 candidate (Sept) Election 2011 results 19 64 13 4 NDP/Mackenzie CPC/McCauley Liberal/Leibovici Green/Bryan Other Q. There will be a Canadian federal election on October 19. If the federal election were held today, which party’s candidate would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name]…? Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a candidate you might be leaning towards supporting here in [riding name]…? 8 Conservative Michael Cooper now has a 17 point lead over independent Brent Rathgeber in St. Albert-Edmonton 2015 St. Albert Edmonton vote intention Decided voters - local 20 39 15 22 candidate (Sept) 4 Election 2011 results 20 64 11 0 NDP/Malayko* CPC/Cooper Liberal/Ghettuba* Green/Oldham* Other/Independent/Rathgeber Q. There will be a Canadian federal election on October 19. If the federal election were held today, which party’s candidate would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name]…? Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a candidate you might be leaning towards supporting here in [riding name]…? * Note: Candidates’ names added in Sept survey 9 Racheal Harper of the CPC leads Cheryl Meheden of the NDP by 14 points in Lethbridge 2015 Lethbridge vote intention Decided voters - local 34 48 14 5 candidate (Sept) Election 2011 results 30 52 9 4 NDP/Meheden CPC/Harder Liberal/Pyne* Green/MacMillan* Other Q. There will be a Canadian federal election on October 19. If the federal election were held today, which party’s candidate would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name]…? Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a candidate you might be leaning towards supporting here in [riding name]…? * Note: Candidates’ names added in Sept survey 10 Derek Leebosh, VP Public Affairs 33 Bloor St East, Suite 900 Toronto, Ontario M4W 3H1 Tel. 416•969•2817 E-mail: [email protected].
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