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Ohio River Basin Pilot Study

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Ohio River Basin Pilot Study Institute for Water Resources–Responses to Climate Change Program Ohio River Basin Pilot Study CWTS report 2017-01, May 2017 OHIO RIVER BASIN– Formulating Climate Change Mitigation/Adaptation Strategies through Regional Collaboration with the ORB Alliance U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and Ohio River Basin Alliance Institute for Water Resources, Responses to Climate Change Program Sunrise on the Ohio River. January, 2014. i Institute for Water Resources–Responses to Climate Change Program Ohio River Basin Pilot Study i Institute for Water Resources–Responses to Climate Change Program Ohio River Basin Pilot Study Ohio River Basin Climate Change Pilot Study Report ABSTRACT The Huntington District of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, in collaboration with the Ohio River Basin Alliance, the Institute for Water Resources, the Great Lakes and Ohio River Division, and numerous other Federal agencies, non-governmental organizations, research institutions, and academic institutions, has prepared the Ohio River Basin Climate Change Pilot Report. Sponsored and supported by the Institute for Water Resources through its Responses to Climate Change program, this report encapsulates the research of numerous professionals in climatology, meteorology, biology, ecology, geology, hydrology, geographic information technology, engineering, water resources planning, economics, and landscape architecture. The report provides downscaled climate modeling information for the entire basin with forecasts of future precipitation and temperature changes as well as forecasts of future streamflow at numerous gaging points throughout the basin. These forecasts are presented at the Hydrologic Unit Code-4 sub-basin level through three 30-year time periods between 2011 and 2099. The report includes the results of preliminary investigations into the various impacts that forecasted climate changes may have on both aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems and operating water resources infrastructure. In addition, the report presents a menu of potential mitigation and adaptation strategies that could be instituted by Federal, state, regional, municipal, and county jurisdictions as well as individual and corporate land owners to attenuate the anticipated impacts of a changing climate. Among these strategies is a proposal that the current policies guiding the operation of basin water resources infrastructure be reviewed in light of the challenges that a new hydrologic regimen may present. The report concludes with a series of lessons learned from the research and study processes, which hopefully will assist others during future investigations of this timely and pressing issue. i Institute for Water Resources–Responses to Climate Change Program Ohio River Basin Pilot Study Preface This document is a result of a proposal by the Huntington District of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) to conduct a pilot study through the Responses to Climate Change Program (RCC) being administered by the Institute for Water Resources (IWR). The primary purpose of the pilot study was to investigate climate change effects that could adversely impact the operations, maintenance, and rehabilitation of Civil Works Water Resources infrastructure in the Ohio River Basin (ORB), and thereby jeopardize the authorized missions of those facilities. A secondary purpose of the pilot study was to investigate the potential effects of climate change on those basin ecosystems that can be influenced by the operation and rehabilitation of USACE infrastructure and associated Federal lands. Storage and release of surface waters at 83 USACE reservoirs and lakes provides a multitude of opportunities to attenuate climate change effects on downstream and lake aquatic communities and riparian habitat in watersheds where those facilities are located. The collaborative aspect of the study involved extensive coordination and team building among the four USACE districts in the basin and members within the Ohio River Basin Alliance. Altogether, 18 professionals from USACE, IWR, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/National Weather Service (NWS), The Nature Conservatory (TNC), Battelle Memorial Institute (Battelle), and several universities collaborated in compiling data, downscaled modeling, basin outreach, and climate change investigations for the basin. This document has no fewer than 12 authors involved in its writing. Those authors include Dr. Paul Kirshen of the University of New Hampshire, Dr. Elly Best of the USEPA, Dr. Harry Stone of Battelle, Dr. Jeffery Kovatch of Marshall University, Dr. Lilit Yeghiazarian of the University of Cincinnati, Mr. Jim Noel of the Ohio River Forecast Center (OHRFC), Mr. John Stark of TNC, Mr. Erich Emery of the Ohio River and Great Lakes Division office, Mr. Joseph Trimboli of the Huntington District, Dr. David Raff and Dr. Jeff Arnold of the IWR, and R. Gus Drum of the Huntington District. This team would like to acknowledge the contributions to the study by Mr. Kurt Buchanan of the Huntington District, Mr. Dick Bartz and Mr. Jim Morris of the USGS, Ms. Deborah Lee of the Great Lakes and Ohio River Division office, Ms. Joy Broach of the Nashville District, Mr. Juan Barrios of Marshall University, Mr. David Moore and members of his staff at Tetra Tech, and Mr. Doug Kluck of NOAA. The team also acknowledges the work of Mr. Tom Maier of the Pittsburgh District, Ms. Ramune Morales of the Nashville District, and Dr. Beth Hall of NOAA in reviewing and revising the draft document. Mr. Mark Kessinger was the USACE project manager (now retired) for the study and watched over the schedule and funding throughout the journey. Last but surely not least, the entire team wishes to thank Dr. Kate White from the IWR for her guidance, patience, and wisdom in championing this effort through the study and document preparation process. i Institute for Water Resources–Responses to Climate Change Program Ohio River Basin Pilot Study In Memory of Dr. Jeffrey Kovatch Dr. Jeffrey Kovatch, Marshall University Associate Professor of Biological Sciences and beloved husband and father, passed away on November 5, 2016 after a short illness. A graduate of the University of Pittsburgh (B.S., 1995) and Syracuse University (Ph.D., 2008), he specialized in aquatic ecology and was active as an executive committee member for the Ohio River Basin Consortium for Research and Education and the West Virginia Chapter of the American Fisheries Society. The Ohio River Basin Climate Change Pilot Study Team appreciates his willingness to share his research and expertise regarding the potential impacts of climate change on valuable Ohio River aquatic ecosystems and his contributions of precise text that added credibility and value to the pilot study report. We will miss our good friend and dedicated colleague. Please cite this document as: Drum, R. G., J. Noel, J. Kovatch, L. Yeghiazarian, H. Stone, J. Stark, P. Kirshen, E. Best, E. Emery, J. Trimboli, J. Arnold, and D. Raff (2017), Ohio River Basin–Formulating Climate Change Mitigation/Adaptation Strategies Through Regional Collaboration with the ORB Alliance, May 2017. Civil Works Technical Report, CWTS 2017-01, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Institute for Water Resources: Alexandria, VA ii Institute for Water Resources–Responses to Climate Change Program Ohio River Basin Pilot Study Table of Contents Abstract .......................................................................................................................................................... i Preface .......................................................................................................................................................... ii List of Tables ............................................................................................................................................... vii Table of Figures .......................................................................................................................................... viii Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................................... 1 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................................ 3 2. Background ............................................................................................................................................. 4 2.1 Study Area .................................................................................................................................... 4 2.2 Current Climate ............................................................................................................................ 5 2.3 Current Problem/Concern ............................................................................................................ 6 3. Study Purpose and Scope ....................................................................................................................... 7 3.1 Central Question Being Addressed and/or Method Tested ......................................................... 7 3.2 Previous studies ............................................................................................................................ 7 4. Pilot Study Methodology/Approach ......................................................................................................
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