Hambleton District Council

Bedale Economic and Business Study October 2017

Hambleton District Council Bedale Economic and Business Study October 2017

Hambleton District Council

Bedale Economic and Business Study October 2017

Reviewed and approved by: Signature(s):

Name(s): David Tuck

Job Title(s): Managing Director

Date: 3.10.2017

GENECON This report contains 34 pages Ref: DT/KC

Hambleton District Council Bedale Economic and Business Study October 2017

Contents

1 Introduction 1 1.1 Context of the study 1 1.2 Town centre trends 1 1.3 Retail context in Hambleton 2 1.4 Changes in Bedale town centre 2

2 Bedale and villages 2017 economic profile 4 2.1 Overview of Bedale and villages 4 2.2 Working and doing business in Bedale 5

3 Bedale town review 2017 8 3.1 Bedale, Aiskew and Leeming Bar Bypass (BALB) 2016 8 3.2 Bedale town health check 2017 10 3.3 Business performance in Bedale in 2017 – Bedale Business survey 15

4 Assessing the impact of the Bedale, Aiskew and Leeming Bar bypass 23 4.1 Introduction to economic impact assessment 23 4.2 Scenario A –The ‘no bypass’ reference case 23 4.3 Scenario B – no growth in retail or accommodation and food services 27 4.4 Scenario C – Accounting for positive effects of bypass in other parts of the local economy 31 4.5 Bedale bypass – economic impact scenario modelling – summary 32

5 Conclusions and recommendations 34 5.1 Study conclusions 34 5.2 Recommendations 35

Hambleton District Council Bedale Economic and Business Study October 2017

1 Introduction

1.1 Context of the study Hambleton is a local authority in North Yorkshire with its administrative centre in Northallerton, and is a predominantly rural area served by the market towns of Thirsk, Bedale, Stokesley and Easingwold. One of the Council’s key economic priorities is to maintain the vitality and vibrancy of its market towns as important local service centres and hubs for the visitor economy. The historic town of Bedale and the neighbouring village of Aiskew are located 9 miles west of Northallerton, and around one and a half miles from the A1(M). The town is an important local centre for retail and services, and hosts a street market every Tuesday. The 2016 Hambleton Retail and Leisure Study (GL Hearn) characterises Bedale as a healthy commercial centre for a town of its size, with a level of retail provision in keeping with its localised catchment and modest tourist market. In August 2016 the A684 Bedale, Aiskew and Leeming Bar bypass opened, diverting east-west traffic from Northallerton and the A1 away from Aiskew and Bedale’s main street, Market Place. Locally it has been reported that the volume of traffic through Bedale has reduced significantly; making the town centre a more pleasant environment, and yet also reducing the level of passing trade for the town’s businesses. In order to provide the most appropriate ongoing support and investment for the town, Hambleton District Council aims to better understand the economic and business environment in and around Bedale; and explore how the town may be changing – both as a result of the bypass, and wider economic and commercial trends. The Council is currently considering a range of future investment and support programmes, including the continuation of the Vibrant Market Town programme, potential for a Gateway Car Park adjacent to the bypass at the entrance to the town, new cycleways and potential investment in ongoing public realm improvements This study has been completed by GENECON Ltd on behalf of Hambleton District Council in August and September 2017. It presents a review of key economic and business trends in Bedale, an analysis of the town’s current commercial profile, and an assessment of the potential effects of the bypass on the town’s economy. The evidence base has been collated from national economic data, local commercial data, and primary data from consultations, a business survey and on the ground observations conducted in August 2017. Whilst instructive, it is important to note that this evidence represents a snapshot of change in one single year since the bypass opened, and the settled trends of trade in post-bypass Bedale may not yet be discernible. This study has a primary focus on the service industries in Bedale town centre, but it presents a balanced view accounting for other parts of the economy and businesses elsewhere in the local area.

1.2 Town centre trends The current economic and commercial performance of Bedale must be understood in the context of wider trends which are changing the way in which town centres function across the country. Town centres today are adapting to a range of new challenges in order to maintain their vitality and viability. In the last decade changes in consumer spending patterns have meant that high streets have to compete much harder to sustain levels of economic activity and maintain the viability of retail properties as an ongoing investment option. The growth of internet shopping and multi-channel retailing means that many retailers are actively seeking to reduce rather than increase their store portfolios. At the same time there is continued competition from existing and new out-of-centre large format retail and mixed-use schemes. 1 Hambleton District Council Bedale Economic and Business Study October 2017

Across the country therefore, the way high streets look and feel is shifting as a result of these changing retail sales trends and different patterns of footfall. The typical town centre offer is different from twenty years ago, with a significant decline in comparison goods stores and the loss of household names; accompanied by an increase in food & drink outlets, small-format convenience stores, value retailers, pawn shops and betting shops. In less viable centres this has seen significantly higher business churn and retail property vacancies. These shifts, accompanied by the post-recession economic downturn, have seen many UK high streets struggle to maintain retail occupiers, high-volume customer footfall, and the sense of social vibrancy many people have historically associated with town centre shopping. At a national level, these trends have initiated a significant policy debate. In 2011 the Government commissioned the entrepreneur and retail expert Mary Portas to conduct an independent review into the future of the country’s town centres and high streets. The Portas Review made a series of policy recommendations on management, maintenance, statutory planning, business support and business environment. In response, the Government initiated twelve Portas Pilot town centre projects and established over 300 town teams, including in Bedale. It also maintained and strengthened the ‘town centre first’ principle in the 2012 National Planning Policy Framework. There is a need to consider the changing character of the High Street with an increased move towards leisure and service uses within core retail areas, more mixed-use schemes and pressure to provide homes to meet future needs and provide a resident population for centres to serve. Given the range of influences on the performance of small town centres, it is particularly challenging to attribute changes in trading patterns to specific variables. The level of town centre activity and floorspace in Bedale is inevitably affected by consumer and business trends and the wider economy in ways that will impact on the spending power available to support the town centre. The extent to which changes in local infrastructure and transport movements has an effect on local business performance requires a more detailed assessment based on operator experience pre-and post-infrastructure investment.

1.3 Retail context in Hambleton

The 2016 Hambleton Retail and Leisure Study (GL Hearn) outlines the potential ongoing effect of these trends on the retail sector across the district. It highlights that larger retail centres with greater critical mass are likely to become more dominant in future at the expense of smaller town centres – with ‘specific and localised impacts for Hambleton town centres’1.

The district is located between two large sub-regional centres (York to the south, Teesside to the north) and it is therefore likely to be difficult to attract the larger scale retailers and leisure operators necessary to deliver a step-change in the performance of the centres. Aside from the regional centre of Northallerton, which serves a wider catchment area, the main market towns serve a highly localised catchment. The strategy moving forward should therefore be to distinguish each centre from the higher order retail locations located outside of the district by emphasising each town’s individual character and selling points focusing on the local independent offer, quality of place and heritage assets. GL Hearn (2016) Hambleton Retail and Leisure Study

1.4 Changes in Bedale town centre

In recent years, the key commercial changes in Bedale town centre have been the closure of two of the town’s three banks, HSBC and NatWest, and the opening of a Tesco Express store in

1 GL Hearn (2016). Hambleton Retail and Leisure Study. p6 2 Hambleton District Council Bedale Economic and Business Study October 2017

2012. Business is relatively stable, with the majority of town centre businesses consulted in the study being long-term and established traders. The proposal to bypass the town on the A684 had been developed over ten years before construction started, with the delay as a result of national government funding priorities. Businesses have therefore been aware of the prospect of the bypass for a considerable length of time. In 2004 a masterplan for the town centre was developed as part of the Yorkshire Forward Renaissance Market Towns programme, which anticipated potential changes – both positive and negative – which might come about once a bypass opened. The Renaissance Towns Masterplan outlined a number of proposed improvements focusing on developing a brand and identity for Bedale and enhancing the Market Place as a shopping, leisure and visitor environment. Proposals included increasing the presence of cafes and restaurants, new street lighting, enhanced and enlarged pedestrianised areas, shop front improvements, new street furniture, and developing a new ‘gateway car park’. In the recent past, Bedale has benefited from two shop front improvement schemes as a result of the Renaissance Market Towns programme and the Heritage Partnership Scheme. In 2013, Town Team funding under the Portas Programme supported research into the town’s performance, training for retailers and a special event for the Tour de France Grand Depart from Yorkshire in July 2014. Most recently, a new traders association, Brand Bedale, has been established with events in 2017 including volunteer work days to maintain the environment of the town centre, special market days and the Yorkshire Day festival in August 2017. In order to provide ongoing monitoring of the town centre’s performance the Council subscribes to the Local Data Company (LDC), which undertakes regular assessments of town centre vitality and viability across the country and provide comparator indexing. This study has had the benefit of access to LDC data sets from before and after the bypass opened. Moreover, the Council continue to take a proactive approach to supporting and improving Hambleton’s town centres. In Bedale, this is co-ordinated by the Vibrant Town Centres Officer in close consultation with the Town Council, Bedale & Villages Community Forum and the emerging Brand Bedale traders’ association.

3 Hambleton District Council Bedale Economic and Business Study October 2017

2 Bedale and villages 2017 economic profile

2.1 Overview of Bedale and villages Bedale is an historic market town, located 9 miles west of Northallerton, in the Hambleton district of North Yorkshire. The town is situated in a rural area between the Yorkshire Dales and North York Moors National Parks, around one and a half miles from Junction 51 of the A1(M). The nearest large urban centres (75,000+ population) are Darlington around 20 miles to the north and Harrogate 25 miles south. Bedale town runs directly into the neighbouring village of Aiskew, and the combined settlement has a population of 4,9002. The rural hinterland immediately surrounding the town has a number of villages such as Langthorne, Cowling, Burrill, Thornton Watlass, Firby, Snape and Thirn. The total population of Bedale and villages is 6,6503. On average the population is older than wider trends with more people of retirement age than at regional and national levels4. The Bedale area is encompassed within the Northallerton travel to work area and the nearby county town is an influential economic counterpoint. It is the nearest larger town and the administrative centre for both Hambleton District and North Yorkshire County Councils – Bedale’s strongest economic and commercial relationship are therefore with Northallerton. The town is one of five key service centres in Hambleton District with a service and trade- based economy that historically largely served agriculture and its related industries. The Georgian Market Place developed on the back of this trading function, and gives the town a sense of commercial and civic scale. Whilst the town continues to serve the immediate retail and leisure needs of the local population, the large majority of people in Bedale and villages now work outside the area (see Section 2.2 below). The centre of Bedale is part of a large conservation area covering the town’s 80 listed structures, including Bedale Hall, St. Gregory’s Church and the Market Cross, as well as community green spaces – a playing field, bowling green and allotment gardens. Local planning policy directs new employment development towards Leeming Bar rather than Bedale itself, in order to preserve the quality of the town and promote its role as a retail and leisure destination.

Figure 2.a : Bedale and villages statistical geography

2 ONS Mid-Year Population Estimates (2015). Hambleton LSOA 006A, 006B and 006C 3 Hambleton MSOA 006 4 ONS Mid-Year Population Estimates by Age (2015). Hambleton MSOA 006 4 Hambleton District Council Bedale Economic and Business Study October 2017

Bedale is also a key local tourist location, both as a destination and a base for people visiting the Yorkshire Dales and North York Moors National Parks.

2.2 Working and doing business in Bedale As might be expected for a rural area, most residents do not actually work in the locality. According to the 2011 Census, 75% of the 2,500 working residents commute out of the area every day, of whom 460 (24%) work in Northallerton. Interestingly, however, the Bedale area also draws in the majority of its labour from outside, with 63% of jobs in Bedale taken by people who do not live locally5. This suggests that Bedale is an integral part of the wider District economy rather than operating purely as a self-contained market town. Thus, Bedale’s connectivity to the wider sub-regional economy is an important factor in the town’s role as a service, employment and residential centre. Beyond Hambleton District, the strongest labour flows with the area are to and from Richmondshire (including Richmond, Leyburn and Catterick), Harrogate and Darlington.

Table 2.a. Labour flows to and from the Bedale area (LA, 2011 Census)

Largest net inflows of labour Largest net outflows of labour

Rest of Rest of 418 1,008 Hambleton Hambleton Richmondshire 260 Harrogate 285

Harrogate 130 Richmondshire 214

Darlington 45 Darlington 56

All others 216 All others 331

TOTAL 1,069 TOTAL 1,894

Overall position: 825 net outflow

Employment in the Bedale area has been growing in recent years, at a faster rate than growth across the District, the region and nationally. There were 320 more jobs in 2015 than there had been in 2011; employment growth of 16% compared to 8% across Hambleton, 5% across Yorkshire & Humber, and 7% across England and Wales6. The most important employers in the area are the public sector and retail and leisure. Education, health and social work employ approximately 790 people – well over a third (37%) of all jobs in the area. In contrast to wider trends, combined employment in these sectors grew by 30% over 5 years between 2011 and 2015.

5 UK Census 2011. GENECON analysis of Origins-Destinations data, Hambleton 006 MSOA 6 ONS Business Register and Employment Survey (2016). GENECON analysis of 5 Hambleton District Council Bedale Economic and Business Study October 2017

Table 2.b : Employment change (2011-15) in Bedale area’s largest 5 sectors

Employment growth (2011-2015) Sector Net change % change Education 405 + 13%

Health and social work 382 + 55%

Construction 298 + 81%

Retail and wholesale 286 - 17%

Accommodation and food services 269 + 20%

Other sectors 616 + 2%

Total 2,258 + 16%

In keeping with the picture of Bedale’s service and trade role, the combined sectors of retail, wholesale and accommodation & food services provide over a quarter of jobs (555, 26%) in the area. However, the number of people working in retail declined significantly between 2011 and 2015 – down by 16% (-59 jobs). As shown in Figure 2.c, this is a trend which has been seen across wider geographies back to 2009 (earliest available comparable data) – but the decline in Bedale has been more marked than elsewhere. This suggests that Bedale’s role as a retail centre may have been under stress for some time before the bypass opened, driven by wider economic trends.

Figure 2.c: Changes in retail employment in Bedale area compared to wider geographies

E&W

LEP

H

B

6 Hambleton District Council Bedale Economic and Business Study October 2017

There are over 400 businesses (4157) in Bedale and the surrounding area. The business structure is clearly reflective of Bedale’s historic and ongoing economic role. One in five businesses are in the broad agriculture sector; compared to 1 in 20 nationally. As a market town and important local visitor centre, the focus of local commercial activity in Bedale is reflected in the fact that it has a stronger than average representation of retail, wholesale and accommodation and food services businesses when comparted to the business structure of the district as a whole. The largest employers in the town are in the health and social care – with 25 employers of between 20-50 staff.

7 ONS UK Business Counts (2016). Local units 7 Hambleton District Council Bedale Economic and Business Study October 2017

3 Bedale town review 2017

3.1 Bedale, Aiskew and Leeming Bar Bypass (BALB) 2016

3.1.1 Bypassing Bedale: summary

Figure 3.a : Map showing route of A684 Bedale, Aiskew and Leeming Bar Bypass

The A684 Bedale, Aiskew and Leeming Bar bypass began construction in late 2014 and opened on 11 August 2016. Following on from the motorway upgrade of the A1(M) to Leeming Bar – completed in 2012 – the bypass represents the most significant infrastructure investment in the local area in recent decades. Before the bypass opened, east-west traffic from Northallerton and the A1 used to go through Aiskew and down Bedale’s main street – Market Place – leading all through traffic past the town’s main shops and services. The White Bear junction, at the south end of the Market Place, became a notoriously difficult junction to traverse and the cause of congestion and frustration amongst residents and businesses. The bypass is a 4.4km (2.8 mile) new highway, which runs from the existing A684 Northallerton Road to the north east to the A684 Leyburn Road approximately half a mile to the north west of Bedale. The road crosses under the A1(M) at a new junction forming junction 51 of the motorway. The £42m bypass was funded by the Department of Transport (£35.9m) and the remainder by North Yorkshire County Council (NYCC).

8 Hambleton District Council Bedale Economic and Business Study October 2017

The road was designed to alleviate problems of congestion, road safety and access to rural areas in the three bypassed settlements. In 2013, the A684 road in the area carried approximately 14,500 vehicles a day through the communities8. The project was promoted and delivered by NYCC on the basis of three key ambitions9:  To reduce traffic congestion in the bypassed communities;  To reduce environmental and road safety problems on the approaches to and through Bedale, Aiskew and Leeming Bar; and  To help the local economy by improving access to the Leeming Bar Industrial Estate and communities to the east and west of the A1. The proposal to develop the new highway was broadly popular with local communities who were most affected by and aware of the problems of road congestion in the area – for example at the Aiskew Level crossing and the White Bear junction at the southern end of Bedale’s historic market town centre.  93% of local consultation responses in 2009 supported the principle of the bypass10.

3.1.2 Traffic effect of the bypass The proposed benefits for Bedale and Aiskew of the new bypass are clear: a reduction in traffic volumes, reduced congestion and improved ability of local people and businesses to move about the town – alongside improved journey times for through traffic. The evidence suggests that the volume of traffic passing through Bedale has reduced significantly since the bypass opened. The traffic effect of the bypass can be tracked and mapped using real information about how many vehicles are passing through. North Yorkshire County Council collect traffic count data at key locations around Bedale – on the existing A684 by the Bedale Athletic and Sports association and on the old route at Aiskew level crossing (Bridge Street) to the east of the town centre, as well as on the new bypass itself.

Figure 3.b : Maps showing location of NYCC traffic counts (Google maps)

A684 Bedale ASA traffic count Aiskew level crossing traffic count

8 GVA (2014). Hambleton District Council: Economic Study – Baseline Study. p17 9 North Yorkshire County Council (November 2012). A684 Bedale, Aiskew and Leeming Bar Bypass. Information leaflet 10 Ibid 9 Hambleton District Council Bedale Economic and Business Study October 2017

Traffic passing into and out of Bedale town centre via Bridge Street and Aiskew – on the route of the old A684 has reduced significantly since the bypass opened. In the year between September 2016 and August 2017 the average daily traffic flow through this location at the South end of Bedale town centre was down by 42% compared with the same period in 2015/16.  On average almost 5,000 fewer vehicles a day passed through Bedale via Bridge Street and the White Bear junction in the 12 months after the bypass opened than in the previous 12 months. Average daily traffic volumes passing towards and away from Bedale town centre via Leeming Road increased by 12% in the year from September 2016 – with an average of 8,420 vehicles passing by the Bedale Athletic and Sports Association every day. The bypass itself has carried an average of 7,640 vehicles between Bedale and the A1 each day in 2017 (up to August).  This suggests that since the bypass has opened the majority of traffic flow in the area is now via the bypass and the A684 Leyburn Road - and therefore that the volume of traffic through Bedale has reduced significantly.

3.2 Bedale town health check 2017

Figure 3.c : Map showing key business locations and attractions in Bedale and Aiskew

10 Hambleton District Council Bedale Economic and Business Study October 2017

3.2.1 Overview of business, trade and the visitor economy in Bedale town centre The 2014 the Hambleton Retail Study (GVA) concluded that Bedale is ‘extremely vital and viable with an extremely low vacancy level. This is reflected by just over half or town centre businesses considering that they had traded well over the past year and over half anticipating good trading prospects in the coming year’. However, the 2014 study also cautioned that: ‘The new Tesco Express store the potential impact of the proposed A684 Bedale bypass which could reduce passing trade will need to be actively monitored by the Council in the short to medium term.’ In 2017, there is little observable evidence on the ground to suggest that the commercial performance of the town centre has declined since this assessment was made three years ago or in the year since the bypass opened. Bedale has a vibrant market town centre, with a wide range of retailers, local services and visitor attractions. The town is home to Mason’s Gin – located in the Craft Yard by Bedale station – which in recent years has become the town’s most recognisable national brand. The Wensleydale Railway which stops at Bedale station is a regionally important visitor attraction, with other attractions in the town including the Big Sheep and Little Cow family farm and Bedale Hall – a Grade I listed heritage building. In September 2017 a new local traders’ association – Brand Bedale – has been formally constituted, described by Bedale Town Council as the ‘best supported business group in the town in a very long time’. The group has already been responsible for a number of volunteer work days to maintain the environment of the town centre and organising events including special market days and the Yorkshire Day festival in August 2017 which was the best attended event in Bedale since the 2014 Tour de France Grand Depart.

11 Hambleton District Council Bedale Economic and Business Study October 2017

3.2.2 Local services Bedale with Aiskew is one of five key service centres in Hambleton District11. It functions as a local centre serving a large rural hinterland in the Yorkshire Dales, and as such the range of services on offer in Bedale is an important indicator of the strength of the town’s draw for local and passing visitors. Local services function as attractors which generate footfall and incidental and convenience expenditure in the town centre economy; whilst also being important employers in their own right. There is considered to be a healthy range and number of local services offered in the town, as outlined in the table below:

Table 3.a : Local services in Bedale (numbers) in August 2017

Personal and medical services Business and professional services

GP surgery 1 Estate Agents 5

Pharmacist 2 Banks and building societies 2

Dental surgeries 3 Accountants and financial advisors 5

Optician 1 Solicitors 1

Hairdressers and barbers 8 Others

Beauty salons and health clinics 5 Police station

Vet surgery 2 Leisure Centre

Funeral services 1 Post office

Taxi companies 2 Library

However, as part of national consolidation strategies for retail banking outlets both HSBC and NatWest banks have closed branches on Bedale Market Place in the past three years – constituting the loss of important footfall drivers for the town centre.

3.2.3 Range and nature of retail and leisure offer Bedale town centre and Aiskew is considered to have a reasonable range of retail and leisure offer for a town of its size. The Local Data Company calculates a retail centre’s ‘Health Index Rating’ based on factors including vacancy rates, dwell time and the presence of anchor retailers. Bedale sits in the middle of its peer group (small high streets of under 200 units) with a rating of 5/10, where 0 is weak and 10 is strong. An above average number of pubs, cafes and Indian restaurants contribute to the high dwell times that lift the town’s Health Score, which also benefits from the below average number of charity shops12. It has a significantly higher proportion of independent retailers in its town centre than the national average – 79% (44 businesses) compared to 65% across Great Britain13. There is a very limited presence on the High Street of national multiple retailers and leisure chains – Costa Coffee, Tesco Express and William Hill; whilst the Co-op and Thomas the Bakers are regionally owned, and there is a Spar franchise.

11 Hambleton Settlement Hierarchy – other service centres are Northallerton, Thirsk, Easingwold and Stokesley. 12 Local Data Company (2017). 13 Local Data Company (2017) 12 Hambleton District Council Bedale Economic and Business Study October 2017

This suggests that, whilst the town is not considered a core centre for national retailers, more of the expenditure in local retail and leisure businesses is retained within the local economy than it might be elsewhere; and that competition and demand generated by locally-owned and operated businesses remains strong. The range of retail and leisure businesses in Bedale town centre and Aiskew is summarised in the table below:

Table 3.b : Summary of selected retail and leisure businesses in Bedale town centre

Convenience stores 4 Pubs and bars 5

Butcher 2 Cafes and tea rooms 6

Wholesaler 1 Takeaway food 3

Gifts, antiques and miscellaneous 8 Restaurants 4

The town’s LDC Health Index Rating has not changed in the 13 months since by bypass opened, suggesting that Bedale’s recent experience is broadly in line with that of comparable centres.

3.2.4 Vacant properties Property vacancy is a key indicator of the vibrancy and viability of any commercial centre. In September 2017 the overall retail and leisure vacancy rate in Bedale was estimated to be 11.7% - – slightly higher than the national average (11.1%)14. However, given the relatively small number of retail and leisure properties in Bedale town centre and Aiskew, any individual vacant properties can have a disproportionate effect on the overall vacancy rate. Property vacancy schedules are usually taken as a snapshot at a particular date. Some level of vacancy can be expected and encouraged in even the most commercially thriving centres as businesses grow and develop, moving to larger or more prominent premises – freeing up entry-level more affordable property for younger businesses – and sustaining a healthy ‘ladder’ system of business accommodation. Conventionally, a vacancy rate of 6-8% is considered normal to reflect ongoing occupancy churn. An example of this type of retail property churn has been seen recently in Bedale with the relocation of a prominent gift shop to a former bank premises across the Market Place. This move is reflected in the data as a vacant retail property, despite the fact that the vacancy was generated by the rationalisation strategy of a national bank – a factor not influenced at all by local economic performance. It is therefore not particularly instructive to compare vacancy rates in Bedale with wider trends. The actual number of vacant properties over time is probably a better measure. In September 2017 there are three vacant units in Bedale town centre, all of which are being actively marketed for let.  Comparing this to data from the 2014 Hambleton Retail Study suggests that the number of vacant retail and leisure properties level has not altered significantly over the last decade or more. Qualitative feedback from local business consultees (GENECON 2017) suggests the currently vacant properties are a result of higher than average rents and individual business failures, rather than a general lack of demand.

14 Local Data Company (2016) 13 Hambleton District Council Bedale Economic and Business Study October 2017

Table 3.c : Number of vacant retail and leisure units in Bedale town centre 2004-2017

Date Number of vacant Source properties

2004 7 2004 Hambleton Retail Study

Experian GOAD reported in 2014 Hambleton Retail and November 2011 4 Town Centre Uses Study (GVA)

GVA survey in 2014 Hambleton Retail and Town October 2013 3 Centre Uses Study (GVA)

August 2017 3 GENECON survey and HDC observations

3.2.5 Visitor economy Bedale is an important local visitor centre, both as a destination and a base for people visiting the Yorkshire Dales National Park. The town centre itself is a pleasant place for visitors, with a range of independent high-quality shops and cafes, a weekly market, and numerous buildings and places of interest including:  Bedale Hall - A grade I listed building - described as a ‘Country House placed in a Town’ - used as a venue for local cultural events and weddings. Bedale Hall is also a hub for business and community facilities housing the local tourist information centre, Bedale Museum and the Bedale Community Library – alongside serviced office accommodation.  Bedale Station & Wensleydale Railway - The Wensleydale Railway is an authentic heritage railway serving the local community as well as bring a tourist attraction in its own right bringing families and transport enthusiasts to the local area. Bedale Station is located just on the edge of the town centre between Bedale and Aiskew – and provides important footfall into the town during the visitor season.  Big Sheep & Little Cow - Family friendly farm attraction with animal enclosures, indoor play area (The Woolly Jumpers Play Barn), an on-site café and dedicated parking facilities.  Mason’s Yorkshire Gin - Small scale distillery using a traditional slow distillation method as well as local water supplies and has a unique selling point as the first gin distilled in Yorkshire. Despite not having dedicated visitor centre facilities the door is open Monday to Friday 8.30am until 5pm.

The town has a volunteer run Tourist Information Centre which maintains headcount data of visitors into the centre during the summer season. This shows a marked decline since the peak in 2009 – and the year of the Tour de France in Yorkshire in 2014 – but visitor numbers up in 2017 compared to 2016.

Table 3.d : Numbers of people visiting Bedale Tourist Information Centre in summer season to August 31 Year Tourist information Year Tourist information centre headcount centre headcount

2017 5,670 2012 6,420

2016 5,376 2011 6,751

14 Hambleton District Council Bedale Economic and Business Study October 2017

2015 5,919 2010 7,143

2014 6,980 (Tour de France) 2009 7,216

2013 6,345 2008 6,277

3.3 Business performance in Bedale in 2017 – Bedale Business survey

3.3.1 Conducting the survey and consultations It is apparent that Bedale in 2017 remains a vibrant town centre. However, it is also clear that the opening of the bypass has significantly reduced the volume of through traffic in the town. To understand the potential effects of the bypass on local business, it is first necessary to know what – if anything – has changed in the town and its trading environment since August 2016. The most up-to-date information about how businesses have performed since the opening of the bypass comes from the business themselves – in the form of primary data. In discussion with Hambleton District Council, GENECON developed and issued an online survey to a sample of 90 business owners provided by the Council. The survey was emailed out on two separate occasions, as well as being listed in ‘This is Bedale’ business e-bulletin. A research team from GENECON also visited Bedale on the 29 August 2017 to conduct surveys in person, with businesses yet to respond, as a secondary measure. In total the survey received 45 responses, which is a considered very good statistically significant response rate of approximately 50% of the sample. Of these 45 responses the majority (31 responses) were collected in person on the 29 August 2017 which also allowed the opportunity to gather more detailed qualitative feedback from businesses. The remaining 14 responded via the online survey whilst there were around 10 business owners, from a variety of business types who declined to comment or respond on the day of the team visit to Bedale. The GENECON team had contact with a minimum of 61% of the requested sample of business owners. This response rate compares very favourably to those achieved for previous studies conducted in the Bedale area in recent years: - 2014 GVA Retail Study: 13 responses; - 2013 AMT Benchmarking Business Confidence Survey: 16 responses; and - 2016 GL Hearn Retail Study business survey: 6 responses. The sectoral profile of respondents was relatively mixed and is considered a reasonable reflection of the underlying sample; with a slight bias towards the retail sector. The sectoral breakdown of respondents is outlined in Table 3.e below:

Table 3.e : Number of Bedale business survey respondents by sector (self-classified)

Sector Number % Retail 24 53%

Medical and personal services (e.g. GP, salon, barber, vet, dentist) 6 13%

Professional and financial services 3 7%

15 Hambleton District Council Bedale Economic and Business Study October 2017

Leisure and hospitality 4 9%

Digital and creative 1 2%

Other (including marketing, publishing, visitor economy, manufacturing) 7 16%

TOTAL 45 100%

64% respondents were businesses located on the Market Place (64%, 29 respondents) with the remainder located elsewhere in Bedale and Aiskew (36%, 16 respondents). The dominance of Market Place businesses in the survey response data is not surprising given the relative density of commercial activity in this location. In terms of time trading, the majority of respondents (64%, 29 respondents) have been trading for over 10 years, and only two businesses have been trading for less than a year, highlighting that most businesses in Bedale can be considered long-term contributors to the local economy. Other than business demographic information, the Bedale Business Survey 2017 focused on five key issues: 1. Changes in Bedale and Aiskew since August 2016; 2. Business performance between August 2016 and August 2017; 3. Factors affecting business performance; 4. The overall impact of the bypass on business; and 5. Potential changes in the town to help improve the business environment. In order to develop a richer picture of business in Bedale, beyond the quantitative data, a series of extended consultations was also conducted in the form of semi-structured interviews with a number of key stakeholders including:  Five prominent local business owners – including organisers and participants of the Brand Bedale traders’ association;  Station master of Bedale station;  Chair of the Bedale and Villages Community Forum;  Clerk of Bedale Town Council;  Hambleton District Council Vibrant Market Towns Officer for Bedale; and  Three tourist information volunteers – including the Chair of Bedale Athletic and Sports Association. The business and economic study and structured consultation questions were presented to Bedale Town Council on 11 September 2017 – and the Town Council’s views have been fed back via the Council Clerk.

3.3.2 Perceptions of Change in Bedale and Aiskew between August 2016 and 2017 Businesses in Bedale have noticed the reduction in traffic in the town since the opening of the bypass – in line with the trends from the NYCC traffic count data. Two-thirds of all survey respondents consider that traffic on Market Place (30 respondents), the White Bear junction (31); and the number of HGVs (31) has reduced since August 2016. The town centre is now a more pleasant and welcoming environment as a result of the reduction in traffic and congestion – according to various consultees, including the Town Council and Bedale & Villages Community Forum (BVCF). It is reported that this has made it easier for older people

16 Hambleton District Council Bedale Economic and Business Study October 2017

to access the town on foot. Nonetheless, numerous consultees raised specific concerns about the routes and behaviour of HGVs passing through the town to access the new bypass from Masham Road, an issue which has been reported by the Town Council and the Community Forum. The number of locals visiting the town to shop, eat and drink is reported to be broadly similar with the significant majority – 60% (27 respondents) highlighting that it is ‘about the same’ since the bypass opened last year. However, the perception of the number of tourists is very mixed. Almost half (44%, 20 respondents) of business owners indicating that there are ‘less’ or ‘a lot less’ tourists visiting Bedale; whilst 47% felt that there were ‘about the same’ or ‘more’. Trends reported by Bedale Tourist Information Centre recorded numbers increasing between 2016 and 2017, whilst comments from some Town Councillors that the town has seemed busier at times of the tourist season. In contrast to the clear reduction in overall traffic levels, the volume of car park use in the town appears to have declined less significantly. Total parking ticket sales at the District Council’s two car parks in Bedale (Auction Mart and Bridge Street) declined by 9% (-2,580) in the period between July 2016 and March 2017 compared to the same period in 2015-16. When asked about any changes in the number of vacant properties, almost half of businesses (27; 50%) believed that there were ‘more’ or ‘a lot more’. When compared to the real data observations (see section 3.2.4) this serves to highlight the impact one or two additional vacancies on the Market Place can have on the perceptions of the success of the town, even when the factors at play (rent and internal business decisions) may be unrelated to the reduction in through traffic.

3.3.3 Performance of businesses between September 2016 and 2017 Businesses in Bedale and Aiskew broadly reported that they had performed similarly or marginally better in the year since the opening of the bypass compared to how they had performed in the previous year. 40% (18) of businesses saw turnover increase between August 2016 and 2017, 33% (15) experienced no change, and 23% (10) saw turnover fall. Turnover decline is limited to a smaller number of businesses than the number who reported growth, but the scale of downward change also tended to be more significant, and therefore the two trends can be considered to have broadly balanced out.

Figure 3.d : Chart showing business survey responses to question on trends in Bedale since August 2016

17 Hambleton District Council Bedale Economic and Business Study October 2017

Figure 3.e : Chart showing business survey responses to question on trends in turnover and profit in Bedale businesses since August 2016

There is some discord between the profit and turnover figures for the respondents where 40% (18 respondents) report a moderate or significant increase in turnover but only 22% (10 respondents) reported the same trend for profit. The difference in these figures suggests that any recent change in the overall profitability of businesses in Bedale is not strongly influenced by the volume of sales, but more likely the result of issues affecting the cost of sales, such as business efficiency and operating costs.

18 Hambleton District Council Bedale Economic and Business Study October 2017

Business were also asked to report on their performance in relation to their targets or expectations (see Figure 3.e overleaf). 38% of business owners (17 respondents) reported that business performance in the last was ‘below’ or ’well below expected targets’, but the majority of businesses met or exceeded their targets in the year following the opening of the bypass. Comparing the responses to this question with reported profit performance suggests a disparity between business performance expectations and profit levels; performance below targets does not necessarily indicate a failing or loss-making business, equally it may also indicate a decrease in profit growth.

Figure 3.e : Chart showing business survey responses to question on performance against targets and expectations in Bedale businesses since August 2016

3.3.4 Factors affecting business performance The Bedale bypass has undoubtedly affected the level of passing trade in the town and changed the way in which people access the town centre. Passing trade and ease of access / parking are important factors in the overall level of trade amongst Bedale businesses. However, the results of the survey clearly suggest that the quality of goods and services is the most important determinant of how businesses in the town perform. The overwhelming majority of respondents (64%, 21 businesses) stated that quality was the most important factor to their business. A smaller proportion (27%) rated either passing & visitor trade or ease of access and parking as the most important. Of the 29 quality-focused businesses 41% (12 respondents) reported an increase in turnover, and a further 34% (10 respondents) reported that turnover was about the same in the year to August 2017 as in the year previous. Businesses were separately asked to rate the importance of a range of factors in any change – either positive or negative – in performance between August 2016 and August 2017. A wide range of factors are reported to have affected business performance in the last year as shown in Figure 3.f (overleaf). The level of footfall in the town is the most commonly reported primary change factor (31% of businesses; 14 respondents); although the majority of businesses (69%; 31 respondents) see other factors as more important than footfall. The evidence on the impact of footfall is mixed and it is not conclusively a negative factor. Of those ranking it as the most important factor 29% had experienced a decline in turnover whilst 36% saw turnover increase. The value of passing trade to certain parts of the Bedale economy was also highlighted in consultations – although various people, including members of the Town Council, noted the

19 Hambleton District Council Bedale Economic and Business Study October 2017

potential effect of the loss of footfall drivers in the closure of two of the town’s three banks and competition offered from national chains such as Tesco and Costa Coffee on the Market Place. Several consultees also highlighted that for numerous ‘destination businesses’ and professional services in Bedale, footfall is unlikely to be a significant factor.

Figure 3.f : Chart showing business survey responses to primary factor behind performance change since August 2016

3.3.5 Overall perceptions of the impact of the bypass on Bedale The overall picture of the perceived effect of the bypass on Bedale is mixed. The consensus amongst individual business owners is in fact that they have experienced both favourable and unfavourable effects. 46% of respondents (21) feel that the bypass has had positive and negative impacts on their business with a further 17% reporting no business effect at all (8 businesses). Asked why they feel the impact is mixed, a significant number of businesses said that the town has suffered from a loss of passing trade but that it is now a more pleasant place to shop, eat and drink – with some also pointing to an increase in local trade as a result, as highlighted by the selected comments below:  Less passing trade but a better environment  Less passing trade from visitors, but less traffic has amenity benefits  Bedale is easier to access and less busy  Nicer environment but fewer people  Less tourists  Lost passing trade but gained local trade  Less pollution, makes Bedale more attractive. Easier to cross roads, more pleasant for shopping  Fewer people passing through the town, now a place that is avoided rather than being somewhere to stop.

20 Hambleton District Council Bedale Economic and Business Study October 2017

Only 20% of businesses (9) feel that the effect of the bypass has been ‘wholly negative’; whilst around a quarter (23%, 11) have experienced ‘wholly positive’ effects of the bypass. This balanced view is echoed in the consultation with members of Town Council, who also recognise the downward effect on passing trade, but reflected a broadly positive range of factors resulting from the bypass.

3.3.6 Suggestions for improvement Businesses and consultees were offered the opportunity to make suggestions on aspects of Bedale town centre and business environment which could be improved to help their performance. These suggestions have been categorised as shown in figure 3.g. Broadly speaking, the majority of suggestions (from the survey response data) relate to continued improvement of the public realm, townscape and environment in the town centre, with proposed improvements including: street furniture, improved maintenance, pedestrianisation of the market place, improved shop fronts, and public art. Place marketing is also an important area of improvement for Bedale businesses - with suggestions including improved publicity, social media campaigns, continued promotion of events and a local shoppers’ incentive scheme.

Figure 3.g : Bedale Business Survey responses to question on changes to improve business

Some businesses also feel that the way car parking is managed in the town could be improved to help levels of trade – with most comments focusing on signing the town’s two car parks and more sympathetic enforcement of the disc parking zone in Market Place. A range of views were expressed: 21 Hambleton District Council Bedale Economic and Business Study October 2017

 “Parking has never been a problem in Bedale”  “Proposed new car park is too far”  “2 hour’s free parking should be viewed positively”  “Parking signage is poor” However, car parking is not a primary concern for the majority of businesses. The priorities of key stakeholder groups in the town are also varied – with Brand Bedale focused on place marketing and events – supported by the Town Council – and the Bedale & Villages Community Forum looking for prioritised investment in public realm and street furniture enhancements. The delivery of a Gateway Car Park and improved signage is the Town Council’s main priority; reflecting their concern that the town is hard to spot from the bypass and that the Council wishes the town’s presence to be felt by all those passing through via the new bypass.

22 Hambleton District Council Bedale Economic and Business Study October 2017

4 Assessing the impact of the Bedale, Aiskew and Leeming Bar bypass

4.1 Introduction to economic impact assessment The evidence gives a mixed picture of the potential changes for businesses and the effects of the bypass – and therefore a scenario-based approach to assessing the financial and economic impact is appropriate . This uses the evidence to develop assumptions about the effect of the bypass and how this might have changed the Bedale area economy. The remit of the study is to examine the relationship between the bypass and trade in Bedale. As such, this impact assessment does not account for the transport-related effects of the new road on the wider economy – for example improved safety or reduced journey times. Similarly, it does not assess the potential economic benefits in the wider area such as improved access to employment sites at Leeming Bar. The impact assessment focuses on the potential local employment and turnover effects of the bypass under the following 3 scenarios:  Scenario A: the no bypass reference case (Scenario A);  Scenario B: a case where the only impact of the bypass has been to constrain growth in a certain part of the economy (retail, wholesale and accommodation & food services) (Scenario B); and  Scenario C: a case where the bypass has a growth constraint impact on part of the economy and a growth acceleration effect in another part of the economy (those sectors positively affected by improved transport links).

4.2 Scenario A –The ‘no bypass’ reference case To understand the potential financial and economic impact of the bypass on Bedale and the surrounding villages might have been in the past year, first we need to consider what might have happened in a ‘no bypass world’. In economic terms, this is known as the counterfactual or reference case. The first key challenge in assessing the economic impact of the Bedale, Aiskew and Leeming Bar Bypass (BALB) is that at the time of this study (September 2017), the new road has only been open for a little more than a year, so any impact can only be measured in terms of a change between 2016 and 2017. This approach relies on understanding what the Bedale economy looked like in 2016 before the bypass opened. Studies into economic activity in England commonly make use of official government national statistical data on factors such as employment, business registrations and economic output (gross value added [GVA]). This is the most robust and reliable economic data available, however, it is commonly only published between one and two years after the date it was collected. As such, no national statistical data is yet available to show what the Bedale economy looks like in Autumn 2017, and in most instances the data from immediately before the bypass opening (August 2016) is also not yet available. The second key challenge is the geography of the impact area. In statistical terms, Bedale and the surrounding villages is a small area. As a rule, the smaller the area, the less reliable and available national statistical data.

23 Hambleton District Council Bedale Economic and Business Study October 2017

The starting point in developing the reference case – the economy of Bedale with no bypass – is therefore the number of jobs in the area by sector; usually the most reliable data at the lowest statistical level.15

4.2.1 Understanding the number of jobs in Bedale in 2016 The 2016 national statistical employment data is not available, so we have chosen to use 2015 statistics from the ONS Business and Employment Survey (BRES), which are then adjusted to reflect the probable changes by 2016. The employment numbers are given for the statistical geography which best represents Bedale and the surrounding villages16 - an area which includes all of the town and the villages outlined in Table 4.a.

Figure 4.a Statistical geography of Bedale and villages: Hambleton 006 MSOA geography

Places included in Hambleton 006 MSOA

Bedale

Aiskew

Langthorne

Cowling

Burrill

Thornton Watlass

Firby

Snape

Thirn

From understanding the number of people employed in each sector in the Bedale area in 2015, econometric projections are then applied to give the likely picture for 2016. The projections used are those which were developed for the 2016 Hambleton District Employment Land Review to understand the likely growth in each sector across the district between 2014 and 2035. These projections are a consolidation of pure econometric projections from 3 different sources17 and do not account for the effects of the bypass. In this instance we are solely interested in the percentage change for one year (2015-16) so the average annual growth rate is calculated and applied as shown in table 4.a overleaf. This shows an estimated 2,269 jobs in the Bedale area in 2016.

Table 4.a : Estimated employment by sector across the Bedale area in 2016

15 ONS Business Register and Employment Survey 16 E02005755 : Hambleton 006 Mid Super Output Area 17 Cambridge Econometrics, Oxford Economics, Yorkshire Economic Model (REIU / Experian) 24 Hambleton District Council Bedale Economic and Business Study October 2017

HDC Average Bedale area 21 year % Bedale area Employment 18 annual employment change employment Sector (projection-based) Land review change 2016 across 2015 projection across (projection- Hambleton (BRES) 2014-35 Hambleton based)

Agriculture - 182 - 119% - 5.7% 2 2 Mining & quarrying and + 9 + 2% + 0.1% 39 39 utilities Manufacturing - 383 - 8% - 0.4% 65 65

Construction + 657 + 28% + 1.3% 298 302

Distribution + 599 + 11% + 0.5% 195 196

Transport & storage + 210 + 15% + 0.7% 56 56 Accommodation. & food + 360 + 9% + 0.4% 269 270 services Information and + 75 + 11% + 0.5% 15 15 communication services Financial & business + 896 + 33% + 1.6% 18 18 services Government services + 525 + 5% + 0.2% 818 820

Other services + 251 + 5% + 0.2% 321 322

Total + 3,017 + 8% - 0.4% 2,258 2,269

4.2.2 Estimating business turnover in Bedale in 2016 It is estimated that businesses in the Bedale area had a gross turnover of £179.63m in 2016. Average turnover per worker metrics across different sectors of the economy can be calculated using official national statistics from ONS Business Population Estimates – taken for the Yorkshire and Humber region (lowest statistical geography available) for 2015. The turnover metrics are applied to the 2016 projection-based employment profile to give an estimated financial value to the Bedale area economy in 2016, as outlined in table 4.b.

Table 4.b : Estimated business turnover by sector across the Bedale area in 2016

Bedale area employment Turnover per job Bedale area sector Sector (SIC Broad Groups) 2016 (projection- (Y+H, 2015) turnover 2016 based)

A : Agriculture, forestry and fishing 2 £ 97,971 £ 184,844 B : Mining and quarrying 2 £ 338,850 £ 678,350 C : Manufacturing 65 £ 145,787 £ 9,437,934 D : Electricity, gas, steam and air 0 £ 338,850 - conditioning supply E : Water supply; sewerage, waste 37 £ 338,850 £ 12,549,471 management and remediation activities F : Construction 302 £ 109,380 £ 33,030,962

18 Based on aggregated ONS BRES Employment data for Hambleton District 2014 25 Hambleton District Council Bedale Economic and Business Study October 2017

Table 4.b : Estimated business turnover by sector across the Bedale area in 2016

Bedale area employment Turnover per job Bedale area sector Sector (SIC Broad Groups) 2016 (projection- (Y+H, 2015) turnover 2016 based)

5 : Motor trades (Part G) 15 £ 162,294 £ 2,447,177 6 : Wholesale (Part G) 76 £ 162,294 £ 12,399,032 7 : Retail (Part G) 196 £ 162,294 £ 31,813,306 H : Transportation and storage 56 £ 93,194 £ 5,256,223 I : Accommodation and food service 270 £ 34,798 £ 9,402,796 activities J : Information and communication 15 £ 93,932 £ 1,416,075 K : Financial and insurance activities 18 £ 107,911 £ 1,973,158 L : Real estate activities 56 £ 75,364 £ 4,230,317 M : Professional, scientific and 136 £ 84,237 £ 11,483,306 technical activities N : Administrative and support service 72 £ 76,134 £ 5,491,109 activities O : Public administration and defence; 19 31 £ 39,750 £ 1,234,965 compulsory social security P : Education 406 £ 39,750 £ 16,134,222 Q : Human health and social work 383 £ 40,209 £ 15,393,740 activities R : Arts, entertainment and recreation 94 £ 38,649 £ 3,641,541 S : Other service activities 35 £ 42,380 £ 1,486,798

TOTAL 2,269 - £179,685,328

4.2.3 Estimating 2017 employment and turnover in the reference case The average annual employment growth rate from the projections is then also applied to the 2016 figures. On this basis, it is estimated that in the no bypass reference case there would have been 2,280 jobs in the Bedale area generating an annual turnover of £180.66m by Autumn 2017. On the basis of real data from 2015 and the economic projections, the Bedale area economy can be seen to have grown between 2016 and 2017 in the no bypass scenario, as outlined in table 4.c overleaf.

19 Data not published. Education used as proxy 26 Hambleton District Council Bedale Economic and Business Study October 2017

Table 4.c : Reference case employment and business turnover (projection-based) 2016 to 2017

2016 (projection- 2017 (projection- Net Change % Change 2016- based) based) (2016-2017) 2017

Total employment 2,269 2,280 + 11 + 0.48% in Bedale area

Total business turnover in Bedale £179.69m £180.66m + £0.97m + 0.54% area

4.3 Scenario B – no growth in retail or accommodation and food services

4.3.1 Comparing business survey findings to the reference case The August 2017 GENECON business survey asked businesses to report on their change in turnover in the year to date, since the bypass opened in August 2016. The results from the respondent sample of 45 businesses are outlined in table 4.d below.

Table 4.d : Bedale business survey 2017 responses

Responses to the question has your turnover / volume of sales changed in the last year?

Number of businesses % of businesses

Significantly up 3 7%

Moderately up 15 33%

About the same 15 33%

Moderately down 3 7%

Significantly down 7 16%

Don't know or prefer not to say 2 4%

TOTAL 45 100%

Across the Bedale economy, this indicates that 40% of businesses saw turnover increase between August 2016 and 2017, 33% experienced no change, and 23% saw turnover fall. Applying a significance weighting of plus or minus 2 for significantly up/down and plus or minus 1 for moderately up/down, this suggests that the overall turnover of the businesses responding to the survey grew modestly over the period – broadly in line with the projection-based reference case. However, it is clearly important to acknowledge that any effect attributable to the opening of the bypass may have affected different business sectors in different ways and therefore it is important to understand what the business survey results indicate about performance per sector.

4.3.2 Turnover in retail and accommodation & food services 2016-17 It is assumed that businesses most likely to be negatively affected by any impact attributable to the bypass are in the: (1) retail; (2) wholesale; and (3) accommodation & food services sectors. 27 Hambleton District Council Bedale Economic and Business Study October 2017

These are considered to be the sectors where sales are most likely to be influenced by footfall and passing trade. The survey results relating to turnover in these sectors are outlined in table 4.e below.

Table 4.e : Bedale business survey 2017

Responses to the question has your turnover / volume of sales changed in the last year Number of businesses % of businesses Significantly up 3 11% Moderately up 9 32% About the same 8 29% Moderately down 0 0% Significantly down 7 25% Don't know or prefer not to say 1 4% TOTAL 28 100%

This response broadly reflects a similar picture to the results across all sectors, with 43% of businesses reporting increased turnover and 32% reporting no change in turnover since the bypass opened. However, of the 25% reporting reduced turnover all (7) suggest the change was significant.

Scenario B therefore makes the assumption (based on significance weighting) that overall turnover amongst retail, wholesale and accommodation & food services businesses did not change between August 2016 and 2017 – with the effect of turnover growth across 43% businesses balanced out against the ‘significant’ reduction amongst a quarter of businesses.

4.3.3 Estimating the effect of no growth in retail and accommodation & food between 2016 and 2017 In the no bypass reference case, it is estimated that this part of the Bedale area economy would have grown very marginally by 3 gross jobs and approximately £274,000 in turnover between August 2016 and 2017. The effect of constrained growth (0%) in these sectors on the overall economy (Scenario B) is shown in table 4.f.

Table 4.f : Scenario B employment and turnover estimates – no growth in retail, wholesale and accommodation & food services

No growth in retail and Reference case accommodation & food services

Net Total in % Change Total in 2017 Net Change % Change 2017 (2016- (projection- Change (2016- (2016-17) (scenario- 2017) based) (2016-17) 2017) based) Total employment in + 11 + 0.48% 2,280 + 8 + 0.36% 2,277 Bedale area

28 Hambleton District Council Bedale Economic and Business Study October 2017

Total business turnover in + £0.97m + 0.54% £180.66m + £0.70m + 0.39% £180.38m Bedale area As shown above, it is estimated that if businesses in retail, wholesale and accommodation & food services experienced no employment or turnover growth in the year between August 2016 and August 2017 then the overall local economy would still have grown by 8 jobs and turnover of £0.7m.

In scenario B, the effect of the lack of growth in the key sectors most likely to be affected by the bypass is a modest scale-down in economic growth rather than a net loss of employment or businesses turnover in the Bedale area. This assumes that all other sectors of the economy performed as per the projection-based reference case and experienced no additional growth as a result of any positive effect of the bypass (see Scenario C).

Under scenario B, the tipping point at which the performance of these three sectors would negate the growth experienced elsewhere in the local economy is if total employment across all three has fallen by 9 gross jobs (-1.55%). The assumptions based on the business survey evidence indicate that these businesses have in fact experienced 0% growth.

4.3.4 Scenario B: Attributing the scale down in economic growth to the effects of the Bedale bypass

Step 1 – Attributing changes in business performance to footfall The results of the August 2017 business survey indicate that most traders have experienced similar numbers of local customers visiting the town (60%), but eighty percent perceive that the number of tourists has been lower than previous years. As the 2017 town review has shown, the evidence on trends in tourist numbers in inconclusive. Nevertheless, Scenario B therefore assumes that a reduction in the number of tourists visiting has had a moderate downward effect on footfall in Bedale town and Aiskew between August 2016 and August 2017. It is then necessary to understand how important footfall is compared to the range of other internal and external business factors which might influence sales and business performance. Two of the business survey questions give an indication of the relative importance of footfall to business performance and therefore to financial returns and economic growth. (1) Businesses were asked to rate the most important factors for the performance of their business: 12 (27%) rated either passing & visitor trade or ease of access and parking as the most important. An additional 14 (31%) rated either of these factors as the second most important. (2) Businesses were asked to rate the most important factor behind any changes in business performance in the last year. Twenty businesses (44%) rated ‘footfall in the town centre’ as either the first or second most important factor.

On the basis of these survey results, Scenario B assumes that any changes in business performance in the key sectors between August 2016 and 2017 are 50% attributable to changes in footfall.

Step 2 – Attributing changes in footfall to the effects of the bypass It is clear from the NYCC traffic counts and the results of the business survey that the volume of traffic passing through Bedale has reduced since the opening of the bypass. Two-thirds of

29 Hambleton District Council Bedale Economic and Business Study October 2017 all respondents consider that traffic on Market Place (30 respondents), the White Bear junction (31); and the number of HGVs (31) has reduced since August 2016. This is likely to have had some effect on footfall in the town, as the number of people passing through and seeing the range of retail and services on offer is reduced. It is also likely, however, that other factors – particularly changing consumer habits and the closure of footfall generators such as two high street banks - may also have had an effect on the level of footfall in Bedale and Aiskew.

Scenario B therefore assumes that 75% of any reduction in footfall in Bedale and Aiskew between August 2016 and August 2017 is attributable to the effects of the opening of the bypass, with 25% assumed to be caused by other factors such as the loss of footfall generators

Step 3 – Calculating the potential effect of the bypass on turnover and employment in the Bedale area Table 4.g shows the effect of applying the attribution effect to turnover and employment estimates.

Table 4.g: Scenario B: Estimate of the attributable effect of the bypass on employment and turnover

No growth in retail and accommodation & food Reference case services Net % Total in Difference Of which Net Attributable Change Change 2017 from attributable Change to footfall (2016- (2016- (projection- reference to BALB (2016-17) (50%) 2017) 2017) based) case (75%)

Total employment + 11 + 0.48% 2,280 + 8 - 2.6 - 1.3 -1.0 in Bedale area Total business + + 0.54% £180.66m + £0.70m - £0.27m - £0.137m - £0.103m turnover in £0.97m Bedale area

Under Scenario B (applying the assumptions outlined above) the attributed effects of the bypass between August 2016 and August 2017 on retail and accommodation / food business in the Bedale area:  employment growth scaled down by one job: (0.04% points)  turnover growth reduced by £102,800: (0.06% points)

It can therefore be implied that on the basis of these assumptions that the retail / visitor related sector in the Bedale area might have grown by an additional job and approximately £100,000 in turnover if the bypass had not been built. This worst case assumes that the bypass has had no positive business effects elsewhere in other sectors of the economy which are less influenced by town centre footfall.

30 Hambleton District Council Bedale Economic and Business Study October 2017

4.4 Scenario C – Accounting for positive effects of bypass in other parts of the local economy Scenario B assumes that the bypass has had no positive effect on any other sectors in the Bedale area outside retail, wholesale and accommodation and food services. In reality, the transport-related benefits of the improved infrastructure and reduction in congestion are likely to have improved productivity in some businesses as products and people can be moved more efficiently. More than half (25; 56%) of business survey respondents reported that the impact of the bypass had been both positive and negative; whilst more reported the effect of the bypass as wholly positive (11) than those who said it was wholly negative (9). This economic impact assessment is only focused on the potential impact of the new road on trade. It does not therefore account for a range of factors which may be picked up in a technical transport economic appraisal, which involve the monetisation of benefits such as improved road safety, reduced emissions and improved journey times. However, Scenario C works from Scenario B and develops further assumptions about positive effects on transport-related businesses and those considered more reliant on the movement of goods in the local area.

4.4.1 Identifying sectors positively affected by the bypass A significant proportion of businesses in the Bedale area operate in sectors considered likely to have been positively affected by the transport and connectivity benefits of the bypass. According to national statistics20 there were 85 businesses engaged in primary industries such as agriculture and quarrying in the Bedale area in 2016, making up 20% of all businesses. A further ten businesses were recorded in both the manufacturing (2%) and transport sectors (2%) and 40 (10%) in construction.

Scenario C assumes that: (i) the growth of each of these sectors (above) has been positively affected by the bypass; (ii) that growth in retail, wholesale and accommodation & food services are negatively affected (as per Scenario B); and (iii) that all other sectors such as the public sector and business services are unaffected.

4.4.2 Adjusting sectoral growth to account for the positive impact of the bypass Scenario C applies a conservative assumption that business efficiencies achieved in certain sectors as a result of the opening of the bypass, saw the annual growth rate in these industries improve by a factor of 0.2 above the projections, as shown in the tables below.

Table 4.h: Scenario C: Employment change in positively affected sectors

Reference case Scenario C

Net jobs Net jobs change % change change (2016- % change (2016-17) 17)

Agriculture, forestry and fishing -0.1 -5.7% -0.1 - 4.5% Mining and quarrying 0.0 + 0.1% 0.0 + 0.1% Manufacturing -0.3 - 0.4% -0.2 - 0.3%

20 ONS UK Business Counts (2016) – Hambleton 006 MSOA 31 Hambleton District Council Bedale Economic and Business Study October 2017

Construction 4.0 + 1.3% +4.8 + 1 .6% Transportation and storage 0.4 + 0.7% 0.5 + 0.9%

Table 4.i : Scenario C: Turnover change in positively affected sectors

Reference case Scenario C

Net turnover Net turnover change (2016- % change change (2016- % change 17) 17)

Agriculture, forestry and fishing - 10,470 -5.7% - 8,376 -4.5% Mining and quarrying 650 0.1% 780 0.1% Manufacturing - 38,048 -0.4% - 30,439 -0.3% Construction 441,434 1.3% 529,721 1.6% Transportation and storage 37,652 0.7% 45,182 0.9%

4.4.3 Scenario C – overall effect on Bedale economy Scenario C is based on the assumptions that whilst some sectors in the Bedale area economy (retail, wholesale, accommodation & food services) may have seen their growth marginally scaled back as a result of the bypass; other sectors experienced a modest benefit. This benefit in other sectors would positively balance out any negative effect for retail, wholesale and accommodation & food services based on prudent impact attribution assumptions.

Under Scenario C (applying the assumptions outlined above and those used in Scenario B) the attributed effects of the bypass between August 2016 and August 2017 on business in the Bedale area are:  no change in employment growth (-0.03 jobs)  increased turnover growth of £2,828: turnover growth is scaled up 0.002% points

4.5 Bedale bypass – economic impact scenario modelling – summary The economic impact scenario modelling outlines three scenarios:  Scenario A: the no bypass reference case (Scenario A);  Scenario B: a case where the only impact of the bypass has been to constrain growth in a certain part of the economy focused on the town centre (retail, wholesale and accommodation & food services) (Scenario B); and  Scenario C: a case where the bypass has a growth constraint impact on that part of the economy based in the town centre and a growth acceleration effect in other parts of the economy (those sectors positively affected by improved transport links). Across the two real world ‘with bypass’ scenarios it is estimated that the Bedale area economy is larger in 2017 than it was in 2016 with growth of between 8 and 9 jobs and business turnover growth of between £0.70m and £0.81m. The economy might have been very slightly larger still in the reference case world, but not all of this difference can be attributed to the effects of bypass.

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The assumption-based scenario modelling applies attribution factors to the effect of the bypass on footfall and the effect of footfall on business performance. The calculations indicate that the economic and financial effect of the Bedale bypass on businesses in the Bedale area between August 2016 and August 2017 was:  a marginal employment effect ranging from no change to one fewer new job created in the Bedale area economy compared to the reference case;  a turnover effect ranging from no change to a reduction in turnover growth potential of £103,000. The outcomes of the economic impact scenario modelling are summarised in the table below:

Table 4.j : Summary of employment and turnover growth in Bedale area economy 2016-2017 under three scenarios

Reference case Scenario B Scenario C growth growth (2016-17) growth (2016-17) (2016-17)

Total employment in Bedale area + 11 + 8 +9

Total business turnover in Bedale + £0.97m + £0.70m + £0.81m area

Table 4.k : Summary of estimated attributable effects of Bedale bypass on the Bedale area economy 2016-2017

Scenario C Scenario B Scenario C Scenario B growth (2016- (2016-17) Change 17) difference Change growth attributed to from reference attributed to difference from effects of case the effects of reference case bypass the bypass

Employment growth -3 jobs -1 -1.7 0

Turnover growth -£0.27m - £0.10m -£0.17m + £0.002m

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5 Conclusions and recommendations

5.1 Study conclusions In the context of a shifting retail and leisure economy, Bedale’s town centre will continue to evolve as businesses adapt to the different demands and behaviours of consumers. Likewise, the construction of the A684 Bedale, Aiskew and Leeming Bar Bypass has undoubtedly had an effect on the feel of the town and the volume of passing trade. This study has examined national economic data, local commercial data, consultations and the findings of a business survey to further explore the nature of change in Bedale since the opening of the bypass and examine the potential causal links between the new bypass and patterns of trade in the town. The main conclusions of this work are outlined below. 1. The proposed benefits of the bypass have been realised. The bypass was planned in order to reduce the volume of traffic, alleviate congestion and make it easier for local people to get around the town – both on the road and on foot. Traffic count data suggests that the volume of traffic passing through Bedale has reduced significantly since the bypass opened. The vast majority of businesses and community consultees report that traffic and congestion are much reduced, particularly through the diversion of HGV traffic away from the Market Place, notwithstanding ongoing concerns regarding HGV traffic to and from Masham Road. 2. Passing trade may have declined in line with reduced traffic, but evidence on footfall is less clear. The consensus amongst businesses is that the number of locals visiting the town currently is broadly similar to before the bypass. The evidence on the level of tourists visiting is less clear – with no clear consensus amongst the businesses surveyed or consultees. Any decline in footfall is likely to have been partly influenced by the bypass, but cannot be wholly attributed to its opening as other factors such as the loss of footfall drivers and consumer behaviour are also important. Whilst passing trade and footfall are important, the quality of goods and services on offer is considered to be the primary factor influencing the performance of the majority of businesses in the Bedale area. Some businesses have reported that the way car parking is managed in the town could be improved to help levels of trade, but parking is not a primary concern for most businesses surveyed. 3. Performance of town centres is influenced by wider economic and commercial trends as well as local factors. Whilst on the surface Bedale appears vibrant and relatively stable as a commercial centre, it will inevitably have to continue to evolve in the face of wider patterns in consumer spending patterns which are affecting property investment, employment and vibrancy of town centres across the country. Jobs in retail were already declining significantly in the Bedale area before the bypass opened. Property vacancies in Bedale are more likely to be the result of individual business decisions – some taken at national level – and occupancy costs, rather than reduced demand as result of reduced footfall. 4. Bedale remains a relatively vibrant centre and business appears to have performed modestly well in the last year. The general consensus is that Bedale and Aiskew present a more pleasant and welcoming environment since the bypass opened. Most of the businesses surveyed achieved similar or slightly higher levels of turnover in the year since August 2016 – and most also met or exceeded their business targets or expectations. 5. In the year since August 2016 the Bedale bypass appears to have had both positive and negative impacts on trade in the town, but the overall perception is positive. The large majority of businesses reported both positive effects – commonly related to improved environment – and negative effects in the decline in passing trade. Nonetheless, the general consensus amongst business and the community appears broadly positive about the immediate impact of the bypass. Notably, the town’s overall ‘health score’ relative to other similar centres elsewhere in the country (Local Data Company) is unchanged in the last year.

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6. The Bedale area has a growing economy – any potential negative impact of the bypass would only have a marginal effect in constraining growth in the short term. The broader economy across the Bedale area appears relatively healthy with continued employment growth. Any effect which could be reasonably attributed to the new bypass would only have resulted in a very small impact on jobs and turnover in the year to August 2017. 7. Enhanced connectivity benefits of the bypass are likely to more than compensate for any short term effects on the town’s economy. The town’s appeal as a residential and business location within the wider economy is significantly enhanced. Based on the available evidence from the study, there is no compelling impact case to justify major early interventions to address reductions in passing trade. The town is still adapting to the effects of the bypass and has yet to reach a point where the long term effects, positive or negative, can be confirmed. On the basis of the evidence, it would not appear that the bypass has had any significant detrimental effect on the vitality and viability of the centre.

5.2 Recommendations On the basis of the outcomes of the study there are a number of recommendations for Hambleton District Council to consider: 1. Ongoing monitoring of commercial and economic performance in Bedale This study establishes the initial framework for the ongoing monitoring of commercial and economic trends in Bedale – based principally on national employment data and primary data from businesses. Baseline data on the most appropriate indicators is not universally available and Hambleton District Council is already working with the Local Data Company to achieve more regular and up-to-date monitoring. Ongoing monitoring of visitor numbers – for example from accommodation bookings – and footfall counts are likely to be particularly instructive. 2. Review the commercial and economic performance of the Bedale area after an ‘adjustment period’ of at least three years Broadly, from the results of the study it appears that Bedale’s trade and economy is very similar in late 2017 to the period immediately before the bypass opened. However, it is likely that the intervening period of just 12 months is not long enough for settled ongoing trends to be fully discernible. The ‘post-bypass’ pattern of trade across the town, and the performance of businesses most likely to be affected by the reduced through traffic – both positively and negatively – will not fully understood until a period of adjustment and consolidation takes place. For example, businesses affected by changes in footfall may require time for compensatory changes in business models to take effect. This period will also allow national statistical data to be used to develop a more robust pre-bypass baseline and post-bypass trend analysis. 3. Consider a wider economic impact assessment of the bypass in conjunction with North Yorkshire County Council. This study has focused on the effect of the bypass on trade in Bedale, as the most obvious initial area of the Hambleton district economy to be impacted. However, the Bedale, Aiskew and Leeming Bar bypass will have a variety of positive, neutral and negative effects on a wide range of economic activity across a broader area of impact, including Leeming Bar and Northallerton. A transport-related economic impact assessment would be able to monetise the effects on aspects such as journey time, emissions changes, maintenance and safety improvements – of particular interest to the Highways Authority – whilst an analysis of the effect on employment and business performance could also consider employment sites in Leeming Bar and Northallerton and the impact of improved strategic connectivity for the town for existing businesses and residents, as well as for inward investment prospects. 4. Revisit the 2004 Bedale Renaissance Masterplan. Although produced over a decade ago, the economic and spatial vision established in the masterplan remains relevant; as do the proposed actions. Most importantly, the masterplan was developed on the assumption that 35 Hambleton District Council Bedale Economic and Business Study October 2017

the Bedale bypass would be a completed – albeit much earlier – and therefore anticipates some of the trends and spatial changes now being experienced. The vision for the town at the time was for Bedale to be a ‘destination’ – rather than a ‘gateway’ – with a strong brand and identity and an enhanced town centre environment, better suited to attracting retail and leisure visitors. It appears that this vision remains as relevant today amongst Bedale businesses and community consultees as it was in 2004. Some of the masterplan projects were delivered – shop front enhancements and a heritage art trail. Others such as place marketing and developing a Bedale brand are evolving and being given a contemporary identity; whilst others such as investment in streetscape (e.g. new crossings, pavement widening), improved parking signage, and a new car park had to await the completion of the bypass but remain on the agenda. All of these proposed suggestions should be reviewed as positive ways to continue to improve the attraction of Bedale to locals and tourists alike. 5. Caution against justifying intervention and investment solely based on the ‘effects’ of the bypass. Until a fuller impact assessment is completed and businesses consolidate into a settled pattern of trade (Recommendations 1-3) it is not possible to justify investment decisions solely on the basis of the impact – positive or negative – of the bypass. Any prioritisation processes will need to consider the overall economy in the round and across the district – where the effects of the bypass are not yet fully understood. On the basis of the findings of this study there is no compelling evidence for the Council to make investments in any single programme or initiative to address the bypass impacts, since these are currently marginal and not known in the medium-term.

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