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China Auto Sector Six Drivers Beyond the Inflection Point

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China Auto Sector Six Drivers Beyond the Inflection Point Automobiles & components / Asia ex Japan 2 May 2012 China Auto Sector Six drivers beyond the inflection point • NDRC, PBOC data, and our M2 growth forecast all suggest the sector is entering an upcycle • We see two short-term, two medium-term, and two long-term growth drivers that could trigger earnings upgrades • Geely and Great Wall should benefit most from the six drivers How do we justify our view? Dongfeng, Brilliance and Great Wall What we recommend benefiting the most from the drivers. Overall, we see Geely and Great Wall benefiting the most from the six Medium-term drivers (exports growth drivers, and believe their and dealerships). Over the next medium-term earnings growth will Jeff Chung two years, we believe there will be be more sustainable than that for (852) 2773 8783 greater margin and earnings [email protected] the joint-venture names. Among the upgrades by the consensus for the joint venture brands, Brilliance quality domestic brands, such as remains in the fastest lane, with a Great Wall and Geely, than for the key catalyst being the launch of its What's new joint ventures, due to: 1) the quality In our view, China’s auto sales are new 3-series in 2H12. We are brands having more dealerships in downgrading our rating for approaching an inflection point and the fast-growing inland regions, 2) we expect a sector rerating in 2Q12. Dongfeng to Outperform (4) due to strong export sales, and 3) quality its sluggish CV sales and the risk of We see six driving forces that could domestic players, such as Geely and it launching cheaper models. lead to a rerating of stocks beyond Great Wall, being able to improve the sales inflection point, and their margins and brand image How we differ believe quality domestic brands will much faster, given that they are benefit most from an upcycle. coming from a low quality base. We believe quality domestic brands will stand out as a result of higher What's the impact Long-term drivers (diesel SUVs earnings growth due to the six Inflection point. We maintain our and self-owned technology). We drivers. 2012 forecast for 9.2% YoY passenger- believe diesel-powered SUVs will vehicle (PV) sales-volume growth, and grow in popularity in China due to Key stock calls expect an inflection point to be their fuel efficiency. Great Wall is New Prev. reached in 2Q12 on the back of: 1) among the few automakers offering Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) National Development Reform diesel PVs. For Geely, a possible Rating Buy Buy Target price HK$20.30 HK$15.60 Commission (NDRC) statistics technology transfer from Volvo Cars Up/downside S 21.1% showing that the decline in car prices (Not listed) and platform-sharing should narrow its drive-train Brilliance China Automotive (1114 HK) is easing, 2) a People’s Bank of China Rating Buy Buy (PBOC) survey suggesting pent-up technology gap with its global peers, Target price HK$11.40 HK$11.40 demand will emerge in 2Q12, and 3) which would improve both Up/downside S 35.4% better market liquidity, (earlier in the companies’ long-term competiveness Dongfeng Motor Group (489 HK) year we raised our M2 growth forecast, and earnings visibility. Rating Outperform Buy on the expectation that an upcycle was Target price HK$16.20 HK$16.90 China Auto Sector: six driving forces Up/downside S 5.9% on the way). GWM Geely Brilliance DFM GAC Geely Automobile (175 HK) Five-star safety model available Rating Outperform Outperform Short-term drivers (safety and Brand premium advantage Target price HK$3.30 HK$2.30 brands). We believe sector Exports >10% of total sales Up/downside S 14.2% consolidation will lead to high- Inland dealerships >49% of total Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK) quality brands taking market share Diesel SUVs >20% total of Rating Underperform Underperform sales from low-quality brands, allowing Target price HK$7.60 HK$6.80 most joint ventures and a few Significant drive-train Up/downside T (11.7)% technology upgrades domestic brands to see higher-than- Total 5 4 2 2 2 Source: Daiwa forecasts average sector sales growth. We see Source: Daiwa Note: Please refer to page 3 for details. Important disclosures, including any required research certifications, are provided on the last two pages of this report. China Auto Sector 2 May 2012 How do we justify our view? Growth outlook Valuation Earnings revisions Growth outlook PV sales and market-share forecasts We maintain our 9.2% YoY PV sales-volume forecast for Units 2011 2012E 2013E Domestic brands: sales volume 5,729,689 5,388,089 5,419,547 China for 2012, translating into 8%, 14% and 16% YoY JV brands: sales volume 8,768,358 10,453,842 13,095,774 growth for 2Q12, 3Q12 and 4Q12, respectively, or 2.7% China PV sales total 14,498,047 15,841,932 18,515,321 and 15.1% YoY growth for 1H12 and 2H12, respectively. YoY: China PV sales total 5.5% 9.3% 16.9% We forecast the joint-venture brands’ sales volume to Great Wall: sales volume 462,679 547,809 650,773 rise by a CAGR of 20% for 2011-13, and that for Geely: sales volume 421,385 460,487 552,336 domestic brands decline at a compound annual rate of - Brilliance: sales volume 107,387 151,267 248,000 Dongfeng: sales volume 1,646,410 1,974,044 2,370,580 2.7%. Among the joint venture brands, Dongfeng and Guangzhou Auto: sales volume 722,005 869,233 1,080,000 Brilliance’s PV total sales volume will rise by 20% YoY Great Wall YoY growth (%) 27 18 19 and 41% YoY for 2012, while the growth for Great Wall Geely: YoY growth (%) 1 9 20 and Geely will be around 18% YoY and 9% YoY, Brilliance: YoY growth (%) 52 41 64 respectively, based on our forecasts. Dongfeng: YoY growth (%) 16 20 20 Guangzhou Auto: YoY growth (%) 0.3 20 24 Source: CAAM, Daiwa forecasts Historical forward PERs vs. MSCI China Auto 10-year average Valuation Historical forward PERs Brilliance and Geely are trading in similar PER ranges. Brilliance's bottom trading range has been hovering around the +1SD level, while Geely We prefer Brilliance due to its stronger short-term tends to be a highly volatile stock. 25 catalyst in the launch of its new 3-series BMW, which we expect to bring the PER back to the 20x range. For 20 the other three stocks, which are trading below the 15 +2SD = 15.0x MSCI China Auto past-10-year average, Great Wall +1SD = 12.8x 10 average = 10.5x offers the highest earnings visibility ahead of the sector -1SD = 8.2x 5 -2SD = 5.9x inflection point in 2Q12 from the six driving forces, and Great Wall's, Dongfeng's and Guangzhou Auto's PERs have been converging below the MSCI China Auto 10-year average. We believe Great Wall should benefit most from the six drivers when the sector enters an upcycle. we therefore apply a relatively high PER of 11x to the 0 stock. In our view, Geely’s valuation bottomed in 4Q11 3-Jul-11 3-Apr-12 3-Apr-11 3-Oct-11 3-Oct-10 3-Jun-11 3-Jan-12 3-Jan-11 3-Mar-12 3-Mar-11 3-Feb-12 3-Feb-11 3-Aug-11 3-Sep-11 3-Nov-11 3-Dec-11 3-Sep-10 3-Nov-10 3-Dec-10 and is now entering a rerating cycle due to solid organic 3-May-11 growth and a possible technology sharing from Volvo; 2238 HK 1114 HK 175 HK 489 HK 2333 HK we believe it deserves to trade at a PER of 11.3x, at a Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts premium to the sector average over the next 12 months. Consensus: 2012 EPS forecasts Earnings revisions Dongfeng’s and Guangzhou Auto’s Bloomberg- Rmb (EPS) consensus earnings forecasts have been consistently 1.5 trending down since 4Q11, while Great Wall and Geely 1.4 1.3 entered a positive rerating cycle in 1Q12. We are raising 1.2 our 2012 EPS forecasts for Geely and Brilliance by 4.5% 1.1 1.0 and 2.8%, respectively, and downgrading Dongfeng’s 0.9 and Guangzhou Auto’s by 5% and 1.9%, respectively. For 0.8 Great Wall, we are raising our 2012 revenue and EPS 0.7 0.6 forecasts by 2% and 0.5%, respectively. We have confidence in Great Wall’s strategy and believe it has a 1/1/2011 2/1/2011 3/1/2011 4/1/2011 5/1/2011 6/1/2011 7/1/2011 8/1/2011 9/1/2011 1/1/2012 2/1/2012 3/1/2012 4/1/2012 competitive edge in diesel SUVs. Our new forecast for 10/1/2011 11/1/2011 12/1/2011 GWM DFM Brilliance Geely GAC 2012E EPS is 9% higher than that of the Bloomberg consensus. Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa - 2 - China Auto Sector 2 May 2012 Table of contents Inflection point ahead ...................................................................................................................... 4 Growth driver No.1 ........................................................................................................................... 6 Growth driver No.2 .......................................................................................................................... 8 Growth driver No.3 ......................................................................................................................... 11 Growth driver No.4 ........................................................................................................................ 14 Growth driver No.5 ......................................................................................................................... 16 Growth driver No.6 ........................................................................................................................ 19 Valuations ....................................................................................................................................... 21 Company Section Great Wall Motor ........................................................................................................................ 25 Brilliance China Automotive ...................................................................................................... 30 Dongfeng Motor Group .............................................................................................................. 35 Geely Automobile ....................................................................................................................... 39 Guangzhou Automobile Group ................................................................................................... 45 Key stock calls EPS (local curr.) Share Rating Target price (local curr.) FY1 FY2 Company Name Stock code Price New Prev.
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