Vrije Universiteit Brussel Big Historical Foundations for Deep Future Speculations Last, Cadell Published in: Foundations of Science DOI: 10.1007/s10699-015-9434-y Publication date: 2017 Link to publication Citation for published version (APA): Last, C. (2017). Big Historical Foundations for Deep Future Speculations: Cosmic Evolution, Atechnogenesis, and Technocultural Civilization. Foundations of Science, 22(1), 39-124. 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Oct. 2021 Found Sci DOI 10.1007/s10699-015-9434-y Big Historical Foundations for Deep Future Speculations: Cosmic Evolution, Atechnogenesis, and Technocultural Civilization Cadell Last1 Ó Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015 Abstract Big historians are attempting to construct a general holistic narrative of human origins enabling an approach to studying the emergence of complexity, the relation between evolutionary processes, and the modern context of human experience and actions. In this paper I attempt to explore the past and future of cosmic evolution within a big historical foundation characterized by physical, biological, and cultural eras of change. From this analysis I offer a model of the human future that includes an addition and/or reinterpretation of technological singularity theory with a new theory of biocultural evo- lution focused on the potential birth of technological life: the theory of atechnogenesis. Furthermore, I explore the potential deep futures of technological life and extrapolate towards two hypothetical versions of an ‘Omega Civilization’: expansion and compression. Keywords Big history Á Anthropology Á Futures Á Evolution Á Singularity Á Philosophy 1 Introduction My focus is to explore the ‘deep future’ of ‘big history’ in-as-far as it can be explored given a lack of empirical data, inability to test future predictions, and an incomplete knowledge of local and global physical, biological, and cultural processes currently in operation. We can gain a new understanding of possible future trends and processes by analyzing the emerging science of cosmic evolution within the narrative architecture of big history. Although modern phenomena like technological complexification and sociopo- litical convergence receive considerable attention, few researchers approach these issues from the vantage point of 13.8 billion years of interconnected evolution. Fewer still have & Cadell Last [email protected]; http://www.cadelllast.com 1 Global Brain Institute (GBI), Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB) (Free University of Brussels), Brussels, Belgium 123 C. Last detailed a working model for understanding deeper reaches of the human future despite the fact (or perhaps because of the fact) that the phenomenon of humanity has the broadest of all possible future event states. We can predict the future evolutionary possibilities for galaxies, stars, and planets on the deepest conceivable scales of time, but we have trouble predicting human possibility out even 100 years. The most important addition to the literature offered in this paper involves taking bio- cultural evolution seriously as a natural phenomenon of equal significance to the hierarchy of cosmic processes that also include physicochemical and biochemical forms of evolu- tionary change. The failure to understand culture, and in particular the relationship between biology and culture as part of cosmic evolution, may be one of the primary failings of science in the modern world. This is a factor in holding back progress in our understanding of both the nature of humanity and the future of humanity. Therefore, in my approach to the deep future I focus on the emergence of the big historical cultural era. Specifically, I want to bring closer attention to the biocultural reproductive nature of the human phenomenon as it presents us with a peculiar cosmic evolutionary relationship that potentially offers clues regarding the future of evolutionary change and complexity construction. This approach to culture as part of a cosmic evolutionary process is partly a response to an emerging realization that we need to understand the ‘‘nature of cosmic culture’’ (see Dick and Lupisella 2009), as well as the ‘‘future of culture’’ (see Dick 2009a). Our inability to understand the nature of cultural phenomenon and its future implications has many causes, but is made all the more difficult due to the ‘‘two cultures’’ divide that has pervaded academic inquiry for decades (see Snow 1959; Wilson 1998; Kauffman 2010). The heart of this divide is created by fundamentally different epistemological worldviews that emphasize different approaches to understanding natural phenomenon. Historically (and broadly) the sciences attempt an understanding of the world that is predictive and approaches objectivity through the formulation of timeless, context-independent physical laws. In contrast, the humanities have mainly focused on narrative construction and the subjective dimension of human experience, with special emphasis on context, choice, and latent possibility within any event. This epistemological division prevents the construction of unifying conversation between diverse fields within biology and anthropology, and more broadly between the ‘physical/life sciences’ and the ‘social science/humanities’. The most relevant consequence of the ‘two cultures’ divide in respect to this paper is that there has been little research that specifically attempts to understand cosmic processes connecting the development and evolution of physical and chemical systems to the development and evolution of biological, ecological, cultural, and technological systems (Heylighen 2011). As a result, no dominant academic conceptual framework comfortably situates the human phenomenon within an evolutionary context of the whole cosmos. Furthermore, dominant academic paradigms within academia do not lend themselves to such an analysis. In the sciences, many researchers have (often successfully) employed a physically reductionist program to understand life and the universe with the belief that all phenomena can be understood through an analysis of the mechanisms of its constituent parts. Consequently most ‘higher phenomena’ (i.e. more complex) are conceived of as representing ‘epiphenomena’ ultimately reducible to lower-level phenomena. The reduc- tionist program has proven successful in many domains of physics and chemistry, but does not help us in understanding the evolution of complex adaptive systems (CAS) like organisms, ecosystems, and civilizations. Alternatively, over the past several decades, many influential social theorists have developed a postmodern relativistic program, within which grand narratives explaining the human experience are explicitly rejected, and modern notions of a historical direction towards greater ‘freedom’, ‘equality’, and 123 Big Historical Foundations for Deep Future Speculations… ‘progress’ are problematized. The postmodern program has proven successful in critiquing many naı¨ve and western-centric assumptions inherent to the original conception of the modern project, however it offers us no new alternative model within which we can construct a common humanistic sociopolitical direction. My point here is to emphasize that both reductionism and postmodernity, albeit suc- cessful in different ways within the sciences and humanities, cannot help us in terms of formulating a better understanding of big history and its meaning for the human species moving forward into our common future. The physically reductionist program cannot explain the emergence and intensification of hierarchical local complexity, as well as the existence of goal-oriented, purposeful systems (Corning 2002a). Consequently, everything that humans are (e.g. complex, goal and value-oriented, conscious, subjects) and every- thing the human system exhibits (e.g. emergence, purposeful organization, autonomy) becomes alien, unnatural, and impossible to predict and reduce. In contrast, the postmodern relativistic program ignores or fails to confront the implications of rising technological complexity and global convergence, leaving human civilization goal-less on the deepest scales of time (Stewart 2010). As a result, any sociopolitical insight we can gain from understanding large-scale patterns and processes discernible over big historical scales are not fully appreciated. However, pointing out potential flaws in worldview structures is much easier than constructing new worldview structures, and I do not hope to solve all of the problems that have characterized the two cultures divide or the problems of our modern scientific and humanistic approaches to understanding in this paper. However, what I do hope to offer is the foundations for a big historical