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Outlook for Electricity and Renewable Energy in Southern and Eastern Outlook for Electricity and Renewable Energy in Southern and Eastern Mediterranean Countries Manfred Hafner, Simone Tagliapietra and El Habib El Andaloussi MEDPRO Technical Report No. 16/October 2012 Abstract The aim of this report is to elaborate the MEDPRO Energy Reference Scenario for electricity demand and power generation (by energy source) in the southern and eastern part of the Mediterranean (MED- 11 countries) up to 2030. The report assesses the prospects for the implementation of renewable energy in the MED-11 countries over the next decades. The development of renewable energy is a cornerstone of the MED-11 countries’ efforts to improve security of supply and reduce CO2 emissions; the prospects for regional renewable-energy plans (the Mediterranean Solar Plan, DESERTEC and Medgrid); and the development of electricity interconnections in MED-11 countries and the possible integration of Mediterranean electricity and renewable markets (both south–south and south–north). This paper was produced in the context of the MEDPRO (Mediterranean Prospects) project, a three-year project funded under the Socio-economic Sciences & Humanities Programme of DG Research of the European Commission’s Seventh Framework Research Programme. MEDPRO Technical Reports give an indication of work being conducted within MEDPRO thematic Work Packages (WPs) and aim at stimulating reactions from other experts and academics in the field. Unless otherwise indicated, the views expressed are attributable only to the authors in a personal capacity and not to any institution with which they are associated. ISBN 978-94-6138-226-9 Available for free downloading from the MEDPRO (www.medpro-foresight.eu) and CEPS (www.ceps.eu) websites © Copyright 2012, Manfred Hafner, Simone Tagliapietra and El Habib El Andaloussi Contents Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................ i Introduction ........................................................................................................................................1 1. Electricity ......................................................................................................................................5 1.1 Electricity consumption ..........................................................................................................5 1.2 Power production: Snapshot of the current situation ................................................................6 1.3 Power production outlook: Reference scenario........................................................................8 1.4 Electricity situation and forecasts in MED-11 countries ........................................................ 11 1.4.1 Algeria ..................................................................................................................... 11 1.4.2 Egypt ........................................................................................................................ 13 1.4.3 Libya ........................................................................................................................ 17 1.4.4 Morocco ................................................................................................................... 19 1.4.5 OSE countries ........................................................................................................... 21 1.4.6 Tunisia ..................................................................................................................... 27 1.4.7 Turkey ...................................................................................................................... 29 2. Renewable energy ........................................................................................................................ 30 2.1 Renewable energy: Snapshot of the current situation ............................................................. 30 2.2 Renewable energy: Future scenario ....................................................................................... 35 2.3 National programmes for renewable energy in MED-11 countries ......................................... 38 2.3.1 Algeria ..................................................................................................................... 38 2.3.2 Egypt ........................................................................................................................ 39 2.3.3 Libya ........................................................................................................................ 40 2.3.4 Morocco ................................................................................................................... 41 2.3.5 OSE countries ........................................................................................................... 43 2.3.6 Tunisia ..................................................................................................................... 47 2.3.7 Turkey ...................................................................................................................... 48 2.4 Stakeholders dealing with renewable energy ......................................................................... 50 2.5 Overview of the institutional and regulatory frameworks ...................................................... 50 3. Electrical interconnections ........................................................................................................... 51 3.1 Outlook of the electric interconnections ................................................................................ 51 3.2 Description of the existing electrical interconnections in the MED-11 countries .................... 53 3.3 New interconnection projects in the MED-11 countries ......................................................... 58 3.4 South–north interconnections................................................................................................ 61 4. EU–Med cooperation for electricity interconnections and renewable energy development ............ 62 4.1 MEDRING study: Electrical interconnections in the Mediterranean ...................................... 62 4.2 Mediterranean Solar Plan ...................................................................................................... 63 4.3 DESERTEC ......................................................................................................................... 65 4.4 Medgrid ............................................................................................................................... 67 4.5 Med-TSO ............................................................................................................................. 68 4.6 RES4MED ........................................................................................................................... 68 References ........................................................................................................................................ 70 Appendix. The EuroMed Partnership in the field of energy ............................................................... 74 A1. The EuroMed Partnership ..................................................................................................... 74 A2. EuroMed projects ................................................................................................................. 74 A2.1 The Union for the Mediterranean .............................................................................. 74 A2.2 The EuroMed Partnership’s actions on energy ........................................................... 75 A2.3 Some major regional projects on energy implemented within the framework of the EuroMed Partnership ................................................................................................ 76 List of Figures Figure 1. Mediterranean basin ..........................................................................................................1 Figure 2. MED-11 energy consumption by sector (Mtoe) ..................................................................3 Figure 3. CO2 emissions in the MED-11 (Mt CO2) ............................................................................3 Figure 4. Electricity in the Mediterranean (TWh) ..............................................................................5 Figure 5. Power production by source in the Mediterranean (TWh) ...................................................6 Figure 6. MED-11 power generation by source (2009–30) (TWh) .....................................................8 Figure 7. Power generation mix in the MED-11 ................................................................................9 Figure 8. Installed power capacity mix in the MED-11 ................................................................... 10 Figure 9 MED-11: Power generation by source, by 2030 (TWh) (about 23% renewable energy, with hydro) ...................................................................................................................... 10 Figure 10. Power generation mix in Algeria ...................................................................................... 11 Figure 11. Installed power capacity mix in Algeria ........................................................................... 12 Figure 12. Generated energy development (GWh) ............................................................................ 13 Figure 13. Installed capacity development by type of generation
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