(CUWS) Outreach Journal # 1246

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USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies (CUWS) Outreach Journal

CUWS Outreach Journal 1246 6 January 2017

Feature Item: “North Korea’s Musudan Missile: A Performance Assessment.” Authored by Ralph Savelsberg and James Kiessling; Published by 38 North; 20 December 2016. http://38north.org/2016/12/musudan122016/ During a military parade in 2010, a mockup of a new North Korean ballistic missile was driven through Pyongyang on a transporter-erector-launcher (TEL). This missile has since been called by many names depending on the public source: North Korean labels correspond to “Hwasong-10,” stories speculating about sales refer to the “BM-25” and US sources frequently refer to it as a “Musudan.” Superficially, the missile looks like a lengthened version of the Soviet R-27 Zyb/SS-N-6 “Serb,” a retired submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) with a listed range of 2,400 to 2,500 km.

U.S. Nuclear Weapons 1. B-2 set to Carry Far Deadlier Nuclear Weapons to Justify Existence until the 2060s 2. US Tests Upgraded Nuclear-Armed, Submarine-Launched Trident II D5s 3. Fact: America's New Nuclear-Armed Submarines Must Serve for 42 Years (Until the 2080s) 4. Fleet of 12 Nuclear Submarines in Line for Pentagon Approval

U.S. Counter-WMD 1. China's Missile Deployment in South China Sea Completely Reasonable: Expert 2. China Urges Proper Settlement with ROK on THAAD Issue 3. China and “Adjusting the Speed” of THAAD Deployment

U.S. Arms Control 1. Putin Orders to Develop Missiles Capable of Penetrating any Defense Systems 2. Donald Trump Signals US Nuclear Arsenal Expansion until 'World Comes to Its Senses' 3. US Makes Basis for New Arms Race by Leaving Anti-Ballistic Missile Deal - Putin 4. Russia to Float Out 2 Nuclear Submarines in 2017 5. Borei-Class Submarines: Principal Component of Russia's Nuclear Triad 6. Diplomat Says Washington Seeks to Disrupt Nuclear Parity with Moscow

Asia/Pacific 1. US Intel Images Suggest Another N. Korean Missile Launch Site 2. NK Leader Claims to Be in Last Phase of ICBM Testing 3. 'N. Korea SLBM with 1-Ton Nuclear Warhead Covers Entire S. Korea' 4. Trump Misguided, Ignorant over NK Nuke Issue: Experts 5. Trump: No DPRK Missile Will Be Capable of Reaching U.S. Issue No.1246, 6 January 2017 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama 6. North Korea Cannot ‘Tip’ Missile with Nuclear Warhead, US State Department Says 7. U.S. Warns N. Korea’s N-Capability ‘Improving’ 8. Jong-un Fixated on Protecting ICBM Program, Says Thae 9. N. Korea Completes Dock for Construction of 10,000-Ton Sub

Europe/Russia 1. Russia’s Missile Forces to Fully Switch to Digital Data Transmission Technology by 2020

Middle East 1. 'Unrecoverable': Revealed N-Documents Show Iran Can Not Make Nuclear Weapons 2. Selling 70 Tons of Heavy Water Barometer of Iran's Nuclear Capabilities: Senior MP

India/Pakistan 1. Nuclear-Capable Nirbhay Cruise Missile's Test Fails for the Fourth Time 2. EXCLUSIVE: DRDO's Cruise Missile Project Nirbhay on Verge of Closure 3. India’s Successful Test of Nuclear-Capable Agni 5 Leaves China Worried 4. Indian Strategic Forces Command Test-Fires 2,500-Mile Agni IV Ballistic Missiles 5. If India Makes More Long-Range ICBMs, Beijing May Help Pakistan Do the Same, Says Chinese State Media

Commentary 1. An Arms Race Russia Will Not Run 2. 2017: Year of the North Korean Intercontinental Ballistic Missile? 3. India Needs to Cool its Missile Fever 4. Expert: ROK Shouldn't Imagine China Accepting THAAD

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Yibada.com – New York, NY B-2 set to Carry Far Deadlier Nuclear Weapons to Justify Existence until the 2060s By Arthur Dominic Villasanta December 31, 2016 New and upgraded nuclear weapons will soon arm the Northrop Grumman B-2 Spirit strategic stealth bomber, extending the bomber's usefulness until the 2060s at least. Introduced in service with the U.S. Air Force in 1997, the B-2 will also receive the most modern and smartest conventional missiles in the Air Force inventory. The effective delivery of these weapons will be the task of the new Defensive Management System (DMS) that informs the two-man flight crew of the location of enemy air defenses. DMS is capable of automatically assessing the detection capabilities of identified threats and indicated targets. The upgraded nuclear weapons, however, will ensure the viability of the B-2 as a lethal strategic deterrent. One of these nukes is the B61 intermediate-yield strategic and tactical nuclear weapon. It's a "variable yield bomb" with a yield ranging from 0.3 to 340 kilotons. The bomb is 3.56 meters long and weighs some 320 kilograms. It can be dropped at a speed of Mach 2 or 2,500 km/h. The little known B61 is an air dropped gravity bomb, and one of only a few in the U.S. arsenal. The U.S. has produced 3,155 of these nuclear bombs since 1968. Of this total, some 200 are operational within the United States while 180 are deployed to NATO in Europe. A life-extension program for the B61-12 nuclear gravity bomb (the latest version) will see this "dumb nuclear bomb" transformed into a smart nuclear bomb whose accuracy should rival bombs equipped with Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAM) GPS guidance kits. With the addition of a guided tail kit assembly, a smart B61-12 will have an accuracy, expressed in CEP (Circular Error Probability), of some 30 meters, which is far better than the CEP of 100 meters in its dumb bomb mode. The life extension program (LEP) for the B61-12 (or the B61 Mod 12), including the JDAM-like guided tail kit assembly, should come to $9.5 million, according to the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA). NNSA is a semi-autonomous department within the Department of Energy. NNSA said the B61-12 LEP "is the most complex B61-12 activity the nuclear security enterprise has undertaken in more than 20 years." Secretary of Defense Ash Carter said modernizing the B61 is part of the expensive and wide-ranging upgrades required to modernize the U.S. nuclear triad. Another new nuclear weapon for the B-2 will be the Long Range Stand-Off Missile or LRSO, an air- launched, nuclear cruise missile designed for America's strategic bomber fleet that includes the B-2, the B-52 and the Rockwell B-1 Lancer. LRSO will replace the AGM-86 Air Launched Cruise Missile (ALCM) which is only carried by the B-52 bomber. http://en.yibada.com/articles/182306/20161231/b-2-set-carry-far-deadlier-nuclear-weapons- justify-existence.htm Return to Top

Issue No.1246, 6 January 2017 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama Scout Warrior.com – U.S. US Tests Upgraded Nuclear-Armed, Submarine-Launched Trident II D5s Nuclear-Armed Trident II D5 missiles rest in 44-foot long missile tubes built into ballistic missile submarines quietly patrolling the undersea domain - to ensure security and peace. By KRIS OSBORN Sunday, January 1, 2017 The US Navy is test-firing and upgrading its arsenal of Trident II D5 nuclear-armed submarine launched missiles designed to keep international peace -- by ensuring and undersea-fired second- strike ability in the event of a catastrophic nuclear first strike on the US. Firing from the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Florida several months ago, a specially configured non-armed “test” version of the missile was fired from the Navy’s USS Maryland. This was the 161st successful Trident II launch since design completion in 1989. The missile was converted into a test configuration using a test missile kit produced by Lockheed Martin that contains range safety devices, tracking systems and flight telemetry instrumentation, a Lockheed statement said. The Trident II D5 missile is deployed aboard U.S. Navy Ohio-class submarines and Royal Navy Vanguard-class to deter nuclear aggression. The three-stage ballistic missile can travel a nominal range of 4,000 nautical miles and carry multiple independently targeted reentry bodies. The U.S. and UK are collaboratively working on a common missile compartment for their next generation SSBNs, or ballistic missile submarines. The 130,000-pound Trident II D5 missile can travel 20,000-feet per second, according to Navy figures. The missiles cost $30 million each. The "Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists" futher describes the weapon -- "The Trident D5s carry three types of warheads: the 100-kiloton W76/Mk-4, the 100-kiloton W76-1/Mk-4A, and the 455-kiloton W88/Mk-5 warhead, the highest-yield ballistic missile warhead in the U.S. arsenal." Trident II D5 - Nuclear-Armed Missile Upgrade The Trident II D5, first fired in the 1990s, is an upgraded version of the 1970s-era Trident I nuclear weapon; the Trident II D5s were initially engineered to serve until 2027, however an ongoing series of upgrades are now working to extend its service life. The Navy is modernizing its arsenal of Trident II D5 nuclear missiles in order to ensure their service life can extend for 25 more years aboard the Navy’s nuclear ballistic missile submarine fleet, service leaders said. The 44-foot long submarine-launched missiles have been serving on Ohio-class submarines for 25 years, service leaders explained. The missiles are also being planned as the baseline weapon for the Ohio Replacement Program ballistic missile submarine, a platform slated to serve well into the 2080s, so the Navy wants to extend the service life of the Trident II D5 missiles to ensure mission success in future decades. The Navy has been working on technical upgrades to the existing Trident II D 5 in order to prevent obsolescence and ensure the missile system remains viable for the next several decades. Engineers have modernized the guidance system by replacing two key components due to obsolescence – the inertial measurement unit and the electronics assembly, developers said.

Under the U.S.-Russia New START treaty signed in 2010, roughly 70-percent of the U.S.’ nuclear warheads will be deployed on submarines. Within the last several years, the Navy has acquired an additional 108 Trident II D 5 missiles in order to strengthen the inventory for testing and further technological development. As part of the technical improvements to the missile, the Navy is upgrading what’s called the Mk-4 re-entry body, the part of the missile that houses a thermonuclear warhead. The life extension for the Mk-4 re-entry body includes efforts to replace components including the firing circuit, Navy officials explained. The Navy is also working with the Air Force on refurbishing the Mk-5 re-entry body which will be ready by 2019, senior Navy officials said. Benedict said the Mk-5 re-entry body has more yield than a Mk-4 re-entry body, adding that more detail on the differences was not publically available. The missile also has a larger structure called a release assembly which houses and releases the re- entry bodies, Navy officials said. There is an ongoing effort to engineer a new release assembly that will work with either the Mk-4 or Mk-5 re-entry body. http://www.scout.com/military/warrior/story/1707164-us-upgrades-sub-launched-nuclear- weapons Return to Top

The National Interest – Washington, D.C. Fact: America's New Nuclear-Armed Submarines Must Serve for 42 Years (Until the 2080s) By Kris Osborn January 3, 2017 The new Ohio Replacement Program nuclear-armed submarines will serve into the 2080s; They Are Designed to Prevent a Catastrophic 1st Strike Massive Nuclear Attack on the U.S. The Navy has begun early construction and prototyping on a new class of nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarines designed to help ensure global peace by deploying massive destructive power under the sea. The Ohio Replacement Program, a so-called SSBN, is scheduled to begin construction by 2021. Requirements work, technical specifications and early prototyping have already been underway at General Dynamics Electric Boat. Designed to be 560-feet– long and house 16 Trident II D5 missiles fired from 44-foot-long missile tubes, ORP will be engineered as a stealthy, high-tech nuclear deterrent able to quietly patrol the global undersea domain. “This platform is being designed for 42 years of service life. It has to survive into the 2080s and it has to provide a survivable, credible deterrent threat,” Capt. David Goggins, Ohio Replacement Program Manager, told Scout Warrior in an interview months ago in 2016. The New Ohio Replacement Submarines are now called the "Columbia" class.

Issue No.1246, 6 January 2017 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama Construction on the first submarine in this new class is slated to be finished up by 2028, with initial combat patrols beginning in 2031, he added. Ultimately, the Navy hopes to build and operate as many as 12 new nuclear-armed submarines, to be in service by the early 2040s and serve well into the 2080s. The ship specifications have been completed and the program is preparing for a detailed design phase and initial production contract, Goggins explained. “I have to make sure I have a detailed manufacturing plan that is executable. Now I’m working on the detailed construction plan,” Goggins said. Strategic Nuclear Deterrence: Navy officials explain that the Ohio Replacement submarines’ mission is one of nuclear deterrence. Detailed design for the first Ohio Replacement Program is slated for 2017. The new submarines are being engineered to quietly patrol the undersea domain and function as a crucial strategic deterrent, assuring a second strike or retaliatory nuclear capability in the event of nuclear attack. The Navy is only building 12 Ohio Replacement submarines to replace 14 existing Ohio- Class nuclear-armed boats because the new submarines are being built with an improved nuclear core reactor that will better sustain the submarines, Navy officials have said. As a result, the Ohio Replacement submarines will be able to serve a greater number of deployments than the ships they are replacing and not need a mid-life refueling in order to complete 42 years of service. “With the life of ship reactor core, you don’t have a mid-life refueling. This allows our 12 SSBNs to have the same at sea presence as our current 14. That alone is a 40 billion savings in acquisition and life-cycle cost because you don’t have those two additional platforms,” Goggins said. Electric Boat and the Navy are already progressing on early prototype work connecting missile tubes to portions of the hull, officials said. Called integrated tube and hull forging, the effort is designed to weld parts of the boat together and assess the ability to manufacture key parts of the submarine before final integration. In 2012, General Dynamics Electric Boat was awarded a five-year research and development deal for the Ohio Replacement submarines with a value up to $1.85 billion. The contract contains specific incentives for lowering cost and increasing manufacturing efficiency, Navy and Electric Boat officials said. The U.S. and U.K. are together immersed in a common missile compartment effort for ORP. In fact, the U.S. and U.K. are buying parts together for the common missile compartment and working on a $770 million contract with General Dynamics’ Electric Boat. The U.S. plans to build 12 ORPs, each with 16 missile tubes, and the U.K. plans to build four nuclear-armed ballistic submarines, each with 12 missile tubes. Next-Generation Technology: The ORP is being designed with a series of next-generation technologies, many of them from the Virginia-Class attack submarine. Leveraging existing systems from current attack submarines allows the ORP program to integrate the most current technologies and systems while, at the same time, saving the developmental costs of beginning a new effort, Goggins explained. In particular, the ORP will utilize Virginia-class’s fly-by-wire joystick control system and large- aperture bow array sonar.

Sonar technology work by sending out an acoustic ping and then analyzing the return signal in order to discern shape, location or dimensions of an undersea threat. “The large aperture bow array is water backed. There is no dome and it has very small hydrophones. It is a better performing array, but more importantly it is not air backed. When you have an air-backed array, you have transducers that need to be replaced every 10 years,” Goggins explained. Previous sonar technologies present higher maintenance costs, whereas large aperture bow arrays can bring both higher performance as well as lower life-cycle costs, he added. “This enables lower operations and sustainment costs because these transducers and hydrophones last for the life of the ship,” Goggins explained. The submarines combat systems from Virginia-class attack submarines are also being integrated into the new Ohio Replacement Program submarines. The subs combat systems consist of “electronic surveillance measures,” the periscope, radios and computer systems, Goggins explained. The new ORP subs will also utilize an automated control fly-by-wire navigation system, a technology that is also on the Virginia-Class attack submarines. “The ship’s control system allows the operator to put information into a computer about the course and depth for the submarine. A computer algorithm maintains that course and depth by sending a signal to the rudder and the stern,” Goggins said. Goggins also explained that the shafts of the new submarines are being built to last up to 10 or 12 years in order to synchronize with the ships maintenance schedule. Existing shafts only last six to eight years, he explained. The ORP will also use Virginia-class’s next-generation communications system, antennas and mast. For instance, what used to be a periscope is now a camera mast connected to fiber-optic cable, enabling crew members in the submarine to see images without needing to stand beneath the periscope. This allows designers to move command and control areas to larger parts of the ship and still have access to images from the camera mast, Electric Boat and Navy officials said. The Ohio Replacement Program is also engineering a new electric motor for the submarine which will turn the shaft and the rotor for the propulsion system. The new motor will make propulsion more efficient and potentially bring tactical advantages as well, Goggins explained. Lawmakers are working on a special fund created to pay for the Navy's expensive next-generation nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarines. Members of Congress have recently discussed the details of the National Sea-Based Deterrence Fund, a special effort established in 2015, at a recent hearing on the topic. The fund was established as a way to allocate specific acquisition dollars to pay for the new submarines. In total, the Navy hopes to buy 12 of the new submarines to serve into 2085 and beyond. Production for the lead ship in a planned fleet of 12 Ohio Replacement submarines is expected to cost $12.4 billion — $4.8 billion in non-recurring engineering or development costs and $7.6 billion in ship construction, Navy officials have said.

Bloomberg News – New York, NY Fleet of 12 Nuclear Submarines in Line for Pentagon Approval Departing weapons buyer approves advanced development General Dynamics in talks with Navy on $126 billion project By Anthony Capaccio January 4, 2017 The Pentagon’s top weapons buyer has approved advanced development for a fleet of 12 new nuclear-armed submarines, a potential $126 billion project that the Navy calls its top priority. “I’m hoping to have it done before I leave,” Frank Kendall, the undersecretary for acquisition who’s departing when President Barack Obama steps down on Jan. 20, said in an interview shortly before he signed the decision memo that officially moves the program forward. The new Columbia-class submarine is part of a trillion-dollar program to modernize the U.S.’s sea- air-land nuclear triad over the next 30 years, including maintenance and support. Obama has backed the effort, to the chagrin of some arms control advocates, and President-elect Donald Trump has seemed to signal his support. “The United States must greatly strengthen and expand its nuclear capability until such time as the world comes to its senses regarding nukes,” Trump wrote in a Twitter posting. The Navy is in contract talks with General Dynamics Corp., which will lead the program to replace aging Ohio-class submarines, with Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc. as the top subcontractor. The projected $126 billion acquisition cost, an estimate that factors in expected inflation, puts the new submarines behind only the $379 billion F-35 aircraft and the $153 billion multiservice ballistic-missile defense network among the costliest U.S. defense programs. Latest Estimate A draft of Kendall’s memo obtained by Bloomberg News includes the Navy’s latest cost estimate for the submarine: $13 billion in research and development and $112.7 billion in procurement. Approval for the submarine program to enter full development -- known as “Milestone B” -- is significant “in terms of the importance that the Navy has attached” to it, the program’s “tight development schedule” and concerns over its impact on other defense priorities, Ronald O’Rourke, a naval analyst with the Congressional Research Service, said in an e-mail. For the next decade, the military is budgeting $193 billion to modernize nuclear delivery systems, including $43.7 billion for the submarine program, up $9.4 billion from the estimate last year, according to a congressionally-mandated report to lawmakers late last year. Kendall praised the Navy in his draft memo, saying that “it is clear that significant achievements have been made to control current and future costs” and to ensure the submarine’s schedule will be

met. “Despite tight schedule margins that leave little room for future issues, there are adequate plans in place to manage this risk,” he said. Still, “without additional resources, which have not been identified, the Navy will have to make substantial reductions in other parts of the Navy budget,” Kendall wrote. Bigger Navy Underscoring that theme, the Congressional Budget Office said Wednesday in a summary of its annual shipbuilding report that the bigger, 350-ship Navy like that endorsed by Trump -- which would include the 12 Columbia-class submarines -- could require $25 billion a year, or about 60 percent above historical annual funding for Navy shipbuilding. More immediately, the Navy estimate sees procurement spending for the submarine program increasing to $2.8 billion in fiscal 2019 from $773 million this year. It would hit $5.1 billion in 2022. That doesn’t include long-range operating and support costs. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-05/new-nuclear-armed-subs-win-pentagon- approval-before-obama-leaves Return to Top

The People’s Daily Online – Beijing, China China's Missile Deployment in South China Sea Completely Reasonable: Expert By Sun Wenyu (People's Daily Online) January 4, 2017 Chinese military expert Yin Zhuo told CCTV that China's military deployment in the South China Sea is completely reasonable, in light of the powerful naval force of the U.S. in the region. He made his remarks after American media outlet Fox News quoted the U.S. intelligence community, saying that China has sent hundreds of surface-to-air missiles from the mainland to the South China Sea. Fox News reported that China has deployed more than 500 missiles on South China Sea islands, including CSA-6B and HQ-9 missiles, as well as the anti-ballistic missile interceptor HQ-26. A U.S. official said these locations are “only temporary” and anticipated that the missiles would soon be deployed to the Nansha Islands and Yongxing Island. Some people believe China will form a comprehensive air defense system once it deploys CSA-6B, HQ-9 and HQ-26 in the South China Sea, increasing its power to cope with U.S. forces in the region. Yin noted that the speculation by Western media makes no sense at all, since the U.S. has maintained powerful forces in the region, including bombers and aircraft carriers. He said neither the U.S. nor surrounding countries are the targets of the missile, adding that they won't be launched unless China's sovereignty over these islands and reefs are violated. Yin said the U.S. is the one who truly threatens regional stability, though Western media has been spreading the theory of the so-called China threat. The situation in the South China Sea has been stable since the U.S. presidential election. However, some countries are still pushing issues, hoping the U.S. will maintain its Asia-Pacific Rebalance strategy.

Xinhua News – Beijing, China China Urges Proper Settlement with ROK on THAAD Issue Source: Xinhua January 5, 2017 BEIJING, Jan. 5 (Xinhua) -- China on Thursday urged communication with the Republic of Korea (ROK) to find a proper solution to the ROK's deployment of an advanced U.S. missile defense system, the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD). China hopes the solution can accommodate the concerns of both sides, said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Geng Shuang at a routine press briefing. "We urge parties concerned to stop THAAD deployment, and refrain from going too far on the wrong track," Geng said. China has repeatedly voiced its opposition to THAAD deployment. "THAAD deployment by the United States in the ROK would gravely undermine regional strategic balance and the strategic security interests of countries in the region, including China, and also harm the peace and stability of the Korean Peninsula," Geng said. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with a delegation of the ROK's largest opposition Minjoo Party in Beijing on Wednesday, calling for both sides to find an appropriate solution through communication in order not to harm exchanges and cooperation between the two countries. However, on Thursday, the ROK's Foreign Ministry reaffirmed its position to deploy THAAD as planned. http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-01/05/c_135958368.htm Return to Top

The Hankyoreh – Seoul, South Korea China and “Adjusting the Speed” of THAAD Deployment By Kim Oi-hyun, Beijing correspondent and Lee Je-hun, staff reporter January 6, 2017 Beijing may be trying to slow the deployment of THAAD, hoping to negotiate with next South Korean administration While the Chinese government reconfirmed its opposition to deploying the THAAD missile defense system in South Korea during a meeting with Minjoo Party lawmakers who were visiting Beijing, attention is turning to a subtle shift in attitude revealed by China’s request for “an adjustment of speed.” Issue No.1246, 6 January 2017 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies (CUWS) Outreach Journal

During a meeting with a delegation of seven lawmakers from the Minjoo Party on Jan. 4, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi reportedly said that the two countries could “continue expanding exchange from the perspective of mutual understanding if [South Korea] freezes the THAAD deployment acceleration process.” While it would be a stretch to infer that this represents a shift in China’s opposition to THAAD, there is something new here: the concept of “acceleration,” which has never been directly mentioned by the South Korean government. Wang’s remarks could be interpreted as meaning that China hopes to slow down the THAAD deployment for now with the hope that there will be a policy change under South Korea’s next government. China’s strategic calculation appears to be that this would forestall the “worst-case scenario” of THAAD being deployed before the end of the administration of President Park Geun- hye. China also appears to prefer negotiating the issue with the next South Korean government, on the assumption that an early election will put the political opposition in power, which appears to be quite likely at present. Wang’s remarks are also a warning about the consequences that could result if South Korea deliberately hastens the THAAD deployment. “China is well aware that South Korea cannot unilaterally repeal an agreement made with the US, but we understood this to mean that China expects us to take steps to adequately relieve concerns about violating China’s security interests during the deployment process,” said lawmaker Song Yeong-gil, who attended the meeting with Wang on Jan. 4. Some think that China would be willing to negotiate its response if deliberations were held at a later point. In contrast, China might be even more provoked (given its emphasis on stability at home and abroad before the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party this fall and the change of leadership) if South Korea moves ahead with the THAAD deployment this year. A third interpretation is that China is sending the signal that it is possible to “expand exchange” as long as South Korea demonstrates its “sincerity” by ending the “acceleration.” “The feeling of 'restriction' that South Korea has is real but it is not government-led; it's Chinese people's spontaneous behavior,” said Lü Chao, an analyst researching Korean Peninsula affairs at the Liaoning Academy of Social Sciences. Lü’s remarks, which were quoted in China’s Global Times, suggest that the Chinese government is not behind the push to restrict South Korean cultural products and tourism (though this is thought to be retribution for THAAD) and that South Korea should therefore make the first move. But considering that the Park administration and the South Korean military have been clamoring to move forward with the THAAD deployment as planned, with the Defense Ministry assessing the value of the deployment site even while Park was being impeached last year, they are unlikely to take a positive view of China’s calls for “freezing the acceleration process,” which would mean interrupting the deployment. In related news, South Korean Deputy Foreign Minister Kim Hyoung-zhin reportedly summoned Chinese Ambassador to South Korea Qiu Guohong to the Foreign Ministry on the morning of Jan. 5 to express “regret” for remarks made by Chen Hai, deputy director general at the Chinese Foreign Ministry‘s Department of Asian Affairs.

TASS Russian News Agency – Moscow, Russia Putin Orders to Develop Missiles Capable of Penetrating any Defense Systems Vladimir Putin is satisfied with Russia's nuclear triad maintenance level December 22, 2016 MOSCOW, December 22. /TASS/. There is a need to strengthen Russia’s strategic nuclear forces and develop missiles capable of penetrating any current and prospective missile defense systems, President Vladimir Putin said at the Defense Ministry board meeting. The president, who is the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Armed Forces, demanded that the defense ministry focus on completing its key tasks. "We need to strengthen the strategic nuclear forces, for that we should develop missiles capable of penetrating any current and prospective missile defense systems," Putin stressed. The president added that non-nuclear strategic forces also needed "to be taken to a higher level of quality so that they are capable of neutralizing any military threats." Besides, in the president’s words, there is a need to ensure the balanced development of all branches of the armed forces, continue to master precision weapons, modern means of communication and reconnaissance as well as electronic warfare systems. Russia is maintaining the state of its nuclear triad at a proper level, the Russian president said: "The state of the nuclear triad that plays a key role in keeping strategic parity was maintained at the proper level." According to Putin, the share of modern armaments in the Russian nuclear forces equaled almost 60%. The level of troops’ training has also increased, which has been proved by the results of the Kavkaz- 2016 strategic command and staff drills, Putin said. The success of these exercises enhanced the protection of Russia’s southern borders, in particular, against terrorist threats, and also helped work on the organization of the territorial defense in the Southern and North Caucasian Federal Districts, Putin said. The Russian president also noted the efficiency of four sudden combat readiness checks held in 2016. "They have confirmed that units and formations can be promptly redeployed to large distances and they can create groupings within short time limits in strategic directions," the Russian leader said. Putin instructed the Defense Ministry to analyze in detail the results of the checks and take them into account in the training plans in the future.

Interest in Russian arms Vladimir Putin believes it is necessary to make the most of foreign customers’ interest in Russian weapons that showed its effectiveness during the operation in Syria. "The effectiveness of the use of Russian weapons in Syria is opening up new vistas for the development of military and technical cooperation. We need to take maximum advantage of this," he told a meeting of the Defense Ministry board on Thursday. "We are aware of the interest in modern Russian weapons shown by our foreign partners," Putin noted. http://tass.com/defense/921420 Return to Top

The Independent – London, U.K. Donald Trump Signals US Nuclear Arsenal Expansion until 'World Comes to Its Senses' President-elect hints at reversal of decades' old policy of disarmament amid escalation in Cold War rhetoric By Andrew Buncombe and Samuel Osborne in Minneapolis December 22, 2016 Donald Trump has sparked fears about a new global nuclear arms race with a tweet that reverberated around the world in which he called on the US to expand its nuclear arsenal. In a single comment that will raise more questions about both his temperament and foreign policy experience, the President-elect said the US must "greatly strengthen and expand" its nuclear arsenal until "the world comes to its senses regarding nukes". He gave no other details about his plans. But his comment immediately triggered fears that the next US president will reverse decades of policy in which the nation has, in tandem with Russia, sought to reduce its nuclear arsenal. Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump The United States must greatly strengthen and expand its nuclear capability until such time as the world comes to its senses regarding nukes 10:50 AM - 22 Dec 2016 The Associated Press said the Thursday morning comment from Mr Trump came a day after he met with several military procurement officers to discuss defence budgets, including Lt Gen Jack Weinstein, the deputy chief of staff for strategic deterrence and nuclear integration for the Air Force. During the campaign, Mr Trump had suggested that the US expand its arsenal and he also suggested that the “better off” other countries, including Japan and South Korea, should have nuclear capabilities. He said that would mean that the US’s traditional allies might not be so dependent on Washington.

Sputnik International – Russian Information Agency US Makes Basis for New Arms Race by Leaving Anti-Ballistic Missile Deal - Putin US has established the basis for the renewed arms race by leaving the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty unilaterally, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Friday. 23 December 2016 MOSCOW (Sputnik) — The United States created the context for the renewed arms race by leaving the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty unilaterally and forcing Russia to adjust, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Friday. "The basis for the new arms race was created after the United States left the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty. This is obvious. When one side unilaterally left the treaty and said it would be creating a nuclear 'umbrella,' all on its own, then the other side had to either create the same 'umbrella,' which we are not certain that it is advantageous, considering the doubtful efficiency of this program, or it had to create the efficient means of surpassing this missile defense system and perfecting the missile strike system," Putin said at an annual press conference, adding that "we are doing this, and we are succeeding." "That was not our idea, we had to meet the challenge," Putin said. The United States notified Russia of its withdrawal from the treaty in 2001. https://sputniknews.com/world/201612231048918917-us-nuclear-russia-putin/ Return to Top

TASS Russian News Agency – Moscow, Russia Russia to Float Out 2 Nuclear Submarines in 2017 The Russian Navy expects to receive these submarines "within the time limits stipulated by the contract," according to the Russian Navy Deputy Commander-in-Chief Vice-Admiral Viktor Bursuk December 23, 2016 SEVERODVINSK, December 23. /TASS/. The Project 955A nuclear submarine Prince Vladimir and the Project 885M Yasen-M nuclear-powered underwater cruiser Kazan will be floated out in 2017, Russian Navy Deputy Commander-in-Chief Vice-Admiral Viktor Bursuk said on Friday. "In 2017, the first improved Project 955-A submarine and the Yasen-M will be floated out," he said. Issue No.1246, 6 January 2017 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies (CUWS) Outreach Journal

The Russian Navy expects to receive these submarines "within the time limits stipulated by the contract," the vice-admiral added. The Prince Vladimir was laid down in 2012 and will become the fourth submarine in the series of eight Borey-class underwater cruisers and the first submarine of the improved Borey-A Project. The Severodvinsk Shipyard in north Russia has laid down the eighth Borey-class submarine Prince Pozharsky on Friday. Three submarines of this class have already been delivered to the Navy. In 2014, two submarines, the Prince Oleg and the Generalissimus Suvorov, were laid down. In 2015, the submarine Emperor Alexander III was laid down. Each such submarine carries 16 Bulava intercontinental ballistic missiles. The Kazan was laid down in 2009. It is being built under the improved Project 885-M Yasen-M. It will be the second representative of the Yasen project: the first submarine Severodvinsk was delivered to the Navy in 2014. Overall, seven submarines of this class are intended to be built. A source in the Russian defense sector told TASS earlier, that the Prince Vladimir and the Kazan would enter into service in 2018, a year later than it was planned. It was earlier expected that both submarines would be delivered to the Navy in 2017. The series of the Project 955A Borey-A nuclear submarines will be completed with the construction of the eighth submarine Prince Pozharsky, the vice-admiral said. The development of the fifth-generation nuclear-powered submarines is already underway in Russia, Head of the Rubin Central Design Bureau of Marine Engineering Igor Vilnit said. The Rubin Design Bureau is the developer of Project 955 Borey-class submarines. As the head of the Rubin Design Bureau said, the fifth-generation submarines will differ from the fourth generation by their armaments. The Russian Navy currently operates three Borey-class submarines: the Yuri Dolgoruky is operational in the Northern Fleet while the Vladimir Monomakh and the Alexander Nevsky are part of the Pacific Fleet. http://tass.com/defense/921700 Return to Top

Sputnik International – Russian Information Agency Borei-Class Submarines: Principal Component of Russia's Nuclear Triad 25 December 2016 On Thursday, during a major year-end press-conference Russian President Vladimir Putin underscored the importance of Russia’s military modernization program. In particular, the president noted: "We did a lot to modernize the nuclear and missile capabilities of the Russian armed forces. This relates to the navy. New strategic submarines with new missiles are entering service." Putin also underscored that Russia was acting in strict accordance with all international commitments, including the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START).

Issue No.1246, 6 January 2017 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama The same day, the eighth Borei-class (project 955) submarine was laid down at the Sevmash shipyard. The new missile-carrying strategic submarine was named the Knyaz Pozharsky. It is expected to be the last in a series of eight Borei-class submarines for the Russian Navy. In recent years, Russia has been putting many efforts in building a modern-day nuclear submarine fleet. Russia Building Fleet of Eight Borei Subs In terms of combat power, one Borei-class submarine surpasses a combined arms army. In January 2013, when the first submarines of this class entered service, at a ceremony President Putin said: "The Yuri Dolgorukiy is a new-generation nuclear-powered submarine. Submarines of this class will be an important component of the Russian strategic forces and will guarantee global power balance and the security of Russia and its allies." Since that time, the Russian Navy has already received three Borei-class submarines – the Yuri Dolgorukiy, the Alexander Nevsky and the Vladimir Monomakh. By December 23, another four modernized submarines of Borei-A class were built at the Sevmash shipyard, including the Knyaz Vladimir, the Knyaz Oleg, the Generalissimus Suvorov and the Emperor Alexander III. Nuclear submarines are the most effective, autonomous and stealthy component of the Russian nuclear triad. They do not depend on weather conditions and can operate hundreds of miles from the Russian coast. Starting 2020, the Borei-class submarines will be the main naval component in the Russian nuclear strategic deterrence forces. Eight submarines and 16 rotating crews will maintain Russia’s permanent presence and capabilities in different areas of the World Ocean. A Borei-class missile-carrying nuclear submarine (project 955A, Borei-M) was developed by Rubin design bureau. It has a length of nearly 170 meters, a width of 13.5 meters and a displacement of 24,000 tons. It can carry 16-20 Bulava-30 intercontinental ballistic missiles and several cruise missiles. The Bulava-30 has a maximum operation range of 8,000 km. It has a solid-fuel engine and a compact design. The sub can reach high speeds and boasts an outstanding maneuverability. It can also override certain advanced missile defense systems. By 2020, a fleet of eight Borei and Borei-A subs will be able to carry 148 R-30 Bulava missiles with a total of 1,480 guidance blocks, 100-150 kilotons each. A Borei-class submarine also has eight 533-mm forward torpedo tubes, nearly 40 torpedoes, missile-torpedoes and torpedo mines. It also carries autonomous sonar countermeasures devices. Borei’s sonar system allows for detecting enemy ships at a distance 50 percent farther than that of Virginia-class submarines of the United States Navy. This system is a complex of digital devices providing communications, acquisition and detection of targets and a range of auxiliary functions. A Borei-class submarine has a maximum depth of 480 meters. It carries a 90-days food supply for crew. As for its life-support systems, it can operate autonomously for decades. Its crew numbers 107 members. In comparison with a Borei and Borei-A submarines, the Borei-M (developed in 2011) submarine has increased stealth capabilities and advanced communications and weapons control systems. There is also a modernization plan for the entire Project 955.

Cutting-Edge Technologies Despite hostile rhetoric in Western political circles and mainstream media, Russia proves that its defense industry has the most advanced technologies, including in building submarines. Some of those technologies are unavailable for more economically developed countries. The West has repeatedly expressed concerns over Russia investing into the newest defense technologies. Business Insider placed Borei-class submarines among the "10 most terrifyingly advanced weapons used by the Russian army." Currently, there are 75 operational submarines of different classes with the Russian Navy. They incorporate the most advanced technologies of the Russia defense industry, including bodies made of special steel alloys and titan for increased stealth capabilities, reliable underwater missile launchers and sophisticated sonar systems. Russia expects to develop a fifth-generation multipurpose submarine by 2020. Moreover, it was reported that on November 27, Russia tested a nuclear-propelled torpedo capable of firing a 100- megaton thermonuclear charge at a distance of up to 10,000 km. https://sputniknews.com/military/201612251048981394-russia-borei-class-submarines/ Return to Top

TASS Russian News Agency – Moscow, Russia Diplomat Says Washington Seeks to Disrupt Nuclear Parity with Moscow The Russian diplomat explains why the US really needs new defense spending law and what it will be aimed at December 27, 2016 MOSCOW, December 27. /TASS/. The United States’ new defense spending law is a clear hint that Washington’s missile defense plans are aimed at disrupting the nuclear parity with Russia, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Tuesday. "A large section of the bill is devoted to missile defense matters. Whereas before the US missile defense was tasked to ward off potential limited strikes against the United Sates, now it is to provide effective and multi-tiered protection from a missile attack," she said. "In other words, the tales about a nuclear threat from Iran and North Korea that we were being told for so long in attempts to persuade us the deployment of missile interceptors was a vital need have now been brushed aside. It has been stated outright that Washington’s plans are far wider and aimed at upsetting the nuclear parity with Russia in order to achieve unilateral advantages in the strategic sphere." Zakharova pointed to other provisions of the law, which concern Russian interests, including the groundless charges Russia is in breach of the INF treaty and far-fetched concerns over Russia’s compliance with the START and the Treaty on Open Skies. "The main thing is that from all this the conclusion is derived it is necessary to speed up work on weapons under the US Prompt Global Strike concept," she said. "In other words, Washington is indulging in saber rattling."

VOA (Voice of America) – Washington, D.C. US Intel Images Suggest Another N. Korean Missile Launch Site By Ham Jiha December 28, 2016 WASHINGTON — New reviews of satellite images suggest North Korea may possess another missile launching site at a village once suspected of having nuclear facilities. The images, analyzed by Strategic Sentinel, a firm that deals with geospatial image processing, intelligence analysis and geopolitical research, exposed a missile silo in mountainous Geumchang- ri, North Pyongan province, where the U.S. intelligence community said in the late 1990s there was a nuclear weapons site. The silo, an underground chamber used for storing and firing missiles, seems analogous to the one at a missile base in Tabriz, Iran, with the same 7.4-meter-wide sliding cover and the same type of exhaust vents, the intelligence consultancy told VOA on Tuesday. That U.S.-based group added that this rectangular-shaped structure appears large enough to house current North Korean missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads that can strike neighboring countries, such as South Korea and Japan. “If this Iranian site is housing missiles and the North Korean site that we have uncovered is the exact same dimension, then it’s quite possible that the site that we have uncovered is housing missiles as well,” said Ryan Barenklau, founder of Strategic Sentinel. He also suggested a possible nuclear cooperation between the two countries. Just north of the silo, three structures, which appear as check-out points and a below-ground access point, stood in a triangle formation, and a possible guard post also was within close proximity, the satellite images showed.

Barenklau said one thing to take note of is the great similarity between this clandestine facility and North Korea’s other established missile-launching sites in terms of the way structures are set up and the distance between check-out points and launch pads. Unlike the conventional 55-meter-long launch vehicle processing buildings, the two check-out buildings at the suspected site, however, measure about 27 and 31 meters long, respectively, with a vacant lot in between them. Asked about the difference in size of missile assembly buildings, Nathan Hunt, chief operations officer of Strategic Sentinel, said, “If this was some type of missile-related structure, (it) would not be for something large but for smaller missiles, possibly a Rodong or such.” While other sites, such as the Sohae Satellite Launching Station and the Tonghae Satellite Launching ground, also known as Musudan-ri, accommodate “very large space launch [vehicles] or Taepodong-type missiles," he said. Collected between 2010 and 2014, the satellite images also highlighted an unpaved, 6-meter-wide road, along which a number of cement crossings were installed. Pointing out that construction of such infrastructure could cost several million dollars, the group insisted that the reclusive regime would only have built it “to support large vehicles to move heavy, military assets to the site.” However, additional reviews of new satellite images need to be done in order to ascertain the exact purpose of the facility, Barenklau said. The firm’s discovery of the suspected missile launching site came months after North Korea conducted two missile tests in October, which, according to the South Korean Joint Chief of Staff, were attempted near Panghyon Airport in Kusong City – located south of the suspected site. The exact location of the launch pad has yet to be discovered. Despite global condemnation and increasing sanctions on North Korea, the reclusive regime remains steadfast in its determination to advance its nuclear and missile programs, conducting two nuclear tests and firing more than 20 ballistic missiles this year alone. VOA Korean Service’s Jeeun Lee contributed to this report. http://www.voanews.com/a/north-korea-suspected-missile-site/3654563.html Return to Top

The Korea Herald – Seoul, South Korea NK Leader Claims to Be in Last Phase of ICBM Testing By Shin Hyon-hee January 1, 2017 North Korean leader Kim Jong-un on Sunday claimed his country was in the “closing phase” of preparations for an intercontinental ballistic missiles test, raising the possibility for a major provocation in time for government changes in Seoul and Washington. In his live New Year address, the young ruler said the country made a “groundbreaking breakthrough” from a series of nuclear and missile tests last year, threatening to beef up its

Issue No.1246, 6 January 2017 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama capabilities for a “preemptive nuclear attack” unless South Korea and the US halt joint war exercises. “To cope with the imperialists’ increasingly atrocious threats of a nuclear war, our first test of a hydrogen bomb, test-firing of various means of attack and test-explosions of nuclear warheads were conducted successfully,” Kim said via the official Korean Central Television. “And also with active research and development projects on cutting-edge arms and equipment, the preparations for the test-launch of an intercontinental ballistic rocket have reached a closing phase.” His remarks boosted speculation the communist state may test the KN-08 ICBM, thought to be capable of flying up to 13,000 kilometers. Pyongyang unveiled the weapon during a military parade in October 2015 marking the 70th anniversary of the founding of the ruling Workers’ Party, touting it as a “strategic rocket equipped with varied, miniaturized nuclear warheads.” Last March, state media released an image of Kim inspecting what it claimed to be a miniaturized fission device on display alongside the KN-08. Debate has been fierce over the North’s ICBM progress. Washington’s Defense Department has said it is already being deployed and capable of hitting the US mainland, whereas Seoul’s Defense Ministry remains skeptical given a lack of test launches and other evidence. Thae Yong-ho, who was the North’s No. 2 man at its embassy in London until his defection to the South last summer, said last week that the country aims to complete the nuclear development by the end of 2017 to coincide with the leadership transitions in Seoul and Washington. Kim, who took power in December 2011, has delivered his New Year speech since 2013 and state media began live broadcast last year. This year’s message came ahead of the swearing-in of Donald Trump as the US president. He has yet to unveil his North Korea policy framework but expressed his willingness to meet Kim during the campaign period. But Kim fell short of directly referring to Trump, simply repeating Pyongyang’s long-festering demand for an end to the joint military drills and what it calls hostile policy. Kim stressed the need to invent more of “our own, self-reliant weapons,” indicating the sustained building of a submarine launched ballistic missile, cyber and other asymmetrical warfare capabilities. “The US must look squarely at the Korean people’s resolve for a unification, no longer stick to alienation plots to instigate a war with the anti-unification forces in the South, and make a resolute decision to withdraw the anachronistic hostile policy (toward the North),” he said. “As long as the US and its follower forces’ nuclear threats and blackmail last, and as long as they remove what they call ‘regular’ war exercise fuss, we will continue to strengthen our self-defensive and preemptive strike capabilities centering on nuclear power.” As for Seoul, he mentioned President Park Geun-hye by name, denouncing her as “anti-unification and a traitor” whose ruling foundations were “shaken from the root because of a robust public anti- government fight.” “Last year’s nationwide struggle, which left a trail in the history of the southern people’s struggles, was an explosion of grudges and anger deeply built toward the conservative government that had

been engaged in fascist rule, anti-people policy, toadyism, selling the nation and fratricidal confrontation,” Kim said. http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20170101000173 Return to Top

The Korea Times- Seoul, South Korea 'N. Korea SLBM with 1-Ton Nuclear Warhead Covers Entire S. Korea' By Jun Ji-hye January 2, 2017 North Korea's submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) is capable of reaching any target in South Korea if it is mounted with a 1-ton nuclear warhead, according to foreign missile experts. The claim was made in a report published in the December edition of Korea Observer, a scholarly journal published quarterly by the Institute of Korean Studies. In the report titled "North Korean Ballistic Missile Program," Theodore A. Postol, a professor emeritus at MIT, and Markus Schiller, an aerospace engineer at the Munich-based ST Analytics, said the North's SLBM, called KN-11, is believed to have a range of 600 kilometers or more if it is armed with a 1-ton nuclear warhead. This puts all of South Korea within range of the missile in theory. The experts also noted the possibility that the missile with a 1-ton warhead may have a range of 800 kilometers, though more details are necessary to determine the maximum range of the missile. They added that the missile with a 1.5-ton warhead may have a range of 450 kilometers. "This means that when the KN-11 is eventually deployed on diesel-electric submarines, it will almost certainly have the payload and range to carry a heavy first-generation nuclear warhead designed for ballistic missile delivery from large areas of the ocean," the report said. The report added that once the deployment is done, missile defense systems such as the U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), which is scheduled to be deployed in South Korea this year, would not be able to readily engage such an "all azimuth" SLBM as it is mostly designed to shoot down North Korean missiles fired from a relatively well-defined direction from the North. The report comes at a time when military officials here assess that the North's technology to miniaturize nuclear warheads has reached a "considerable" level. They note that if a country miniaturizes a nuclear warhead to about 1 ton in weight and 90 centimeters in diameter, the development is considered a success. Pyongyang is known to have been working to reduce the weight of its nuclear warheads to less than 700 kilograms so it can fit them on its various ballistic missiles. The weight of the warhead for the North's short-range Scud missile is about 770 to 1,000 kilograms, while the medium-range Rodong missile can carry a 700-kilogram warhead and the intermediate- range Musudan a 650-kilogram warhead, according to the Ministry of National Defense. The ministry assesses that the North has yet to perfect such technology, though some military experts claim Pyongyang has already reached that goal.

Global Times – Beijing, China Trump Misguided, Ignorant over NK Nuke Issue: Experts Analysts doubt NK has gained tech needed to launch nuke missiles By Yang Sheng; Source: Global Times January 3, 2017 US president-elect Donald Trump is misguided in lashing out at China in his latest Twitter tirade over the North Korean nuclear issue, which only shows up his ignorance about this issue, Chinese experts said. Trump on Tuesday posted two tweets in succession, which said "North Korea just stated that it is in the final stages of developing a nuclear weapon capable of reaching parts of the US. It won't happen!" and "China has been taking out massive amounts of money & wealth from the US in totally one-sided trade, but won't help with North Korea. Nice!" Trump was referring to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's New Year address which said the country would continue to strengthen its national defense, including nuclear capabilities, as long as the nuclear threat from the US exists. Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Geng Shuang said China is firm on denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, and that China and the US should seek solutions to trade frictions on the basis of mutual respect. "Trade between China and the US is essentially mutually beneficial and a win-win for both, which has been proved by facts," Geng told a press conference on Tuesday. China has already done almost everything it can to promote a peaceful solution of the North Korean nuclear issue, Lü Chao, a research fellow from the Institute of China's Borderland History and Geography Studies at the Liaoning Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times. "We set up the platform for the Six-Party Talks, and recently, with China's assistance, the UN Security Council passed Resolution 2321, the harshest sanctions ever to target North Korea's

The Japan News – Tokyo, Japan Trump: No DPRK Missile Will Be Capable of Reaching U.S. Agence France-Presse (AFP)-Jiji January 4, 2017 WASHINGTON (AFP-Jiji) — U.S. President-elect Donald Trump took to Twitter again on Monday evening to promise North Korea would not develop a nuclear missile capable of reaching U.S. territory. His comments come a day after the North Korean leader, Kim Jong Un, appeared to try to put pressure on Trump by announcing his country is in the “final stages” of developing an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).

Issue No.1246, 6 January 2017 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama “North Korea just stated that it is in the final stages of developing a nuclear weapon capable of reaching parts of the US,” Trump tweeted. “It won’t happen!” Although Washington has repeatedly vowed that it would never accept North Korea as a nuclear state, Trump has not previously clearly stated his policy on the isolated Stalinist state. The Republican billionaire has already upended precedent by routinely taking to Twitter since his election last month to lambaste critics and issue statements — sometimes about the most serious national security issues — sending analysts scrambling to divine what they may mean for U.S. policy once he takes office on Jan. 20. He launched a solo bid to restart the Cold War arms race last month, tweeting that the United States must “greatly strengthen and expand” its nuclear capabilities. He has also angered China by tweeting accusations of military expansionism and currency manipulation. But he will need Beijing, Pyongyang’s closest ally, to deal with North Korea’s mounting confrontation. However, he appeared to complicate that prospect with his latest criticism on Monday evening following his vow about North Korea. “China has been taking out massive amounts of money & wealth from the US in totally one-sided trade, but won’t help with North Korea,” he tweeted. “Nice!” In a 30-minute televised New Year’s speech on Sunday, Kim said Pyongyang had “soared as a nuclear power,” adding that it is now a “military power of the East that cannot be touched by even the strongest enemy.” Although he did not make a specific reference to the incoming Trump administration, he called on Washington to make a “resolute decision to withdraw its anachronistic hostile North Korea policy.” Analysts are divided over how close Pyongyang is to realizing its full nuclear ambitions, especially as it has never successfully test-fired an ICBM. However, North Korea carried out two nuclear tests and numerous missile launches last year in pursuit of its oft-stated goal — developing a weapons system capable of hitting the U.S. mainland with a nuclear warhead. Thae Yong Ho, North Korea’s former deputy ambassador to Britain who defected to South Korea in August, has said Kim was planning a “prime time” nuclear weapons push in 2017 to take advantage of leadership transitions in Washington and Seoul. http://the-japan-news.com/news/article/0003437959 Return to Top

South China Morning Post – Hong Kong, China North Korea Cannot ‘Tip’ Missile with Nuclear Warhead, US State Department Says John Kirby also said his department did not agree with president-elect Donald Trump’s assessment that China was not helping to contain Pyongyang’s nuclear ambitions Reuters Wednesday, January 4, 2017

North Korea continues to pursue nuclear and ballistic missile technologies but the United States does not believe it is in a position to “tip” one of them with a nuclear warhead, State Department spokesman John Kirby said on Tuesday. North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, said on Sunday his nuclear-capable country was close to test- launching an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), raising the prospect of putting parts of the United States within range. “We do not believe that at this point in time he has the capability to tip one of these with a nuclear warhead ... but we do know that he continues to want to have those capabilities and the programmes continue to march in that direction,” Kirby told reporters. Asked whether he would agree with president-elect Donald Trump’s assessment that China was not helping to contain North Korea’s nuclear ambitions, Kirby said: “We would not agree with that assessment.” Trump, who will take office on January 20, tweeted on Monday that North Korea would not be allowed to complete a nuclear weapon capable of reaching the United States, although he did not say how he would stop it. “It won’t happen!” he said on Twitter. Trump’s transition spokesman, Sean Spicer, said the tweet spoke for itself but added that it meant, “Under his watch he’s going to make sure that that doesn’t happen.” Pyongyang’s action will be discussed at a meeting in Washington on Thursday between the United States, Japan and South Korea, led by Deputy Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Kirby said. “No question that tensions on the Korean peninsula will be a topic of discussion [but] where that is going to take us, especially in light of Kim Jong-un’s speech, I don’t know,” Kirby said. Asked about the possibility of more sanctions against Pyongyang, he added: “We haven’t ruled out the possibility of additional sanctions.” http://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/2059243/north-korea-cannot-tip-missile- nuclear-warhead-us-state Return to Top

The Japan News – Tokyo Japan U.S. Warns N. Korea’s N-Capability ‘Improving’ The Associated Press (AP) January 6, 2017 WASHINGTON (AP) — North Korea’s weapons capabilities have shown a “qualitative improvement” in the past year, the No. 2 U.S. diplomat said Thursday. Deputy Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who met with his counterparts from key U.S. allies Japan and South Korea, said the North conducted nuclear and missile tests with unprecedented intensity during 2016, and that the threat it poses grows by the day. The North Koreans learn from every single test, including failures, he said.

The JoongAng Daily – Seoul, South Korea Jong-un Fixated on Protecting ICBM Program, Says Thae By JEONG YONG-SOO and KANG JIN-KYU January 6, 2017 North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has no intention of giving up the country’s satellite program, a cover for its long-range missile program, and gave orders last year to embassies overseas to separate that program from any discussions of its nuclear and missile programs, one of the highest- ranking defectors said in a report. According to an analysis of on Kim Jong-un’s New Year address by Thae Yong-ho, North Korea’s former deputy ambassador in London who defected to the South in July, the North Korean leader is “determined not to put the country’s satellite development on the negotiating table with Seoul and Washington” even if they hold talks on its nuclear program and development of other missiles. The report was obtained by the JoongAng Ilbo. Thae, the highest North Korean official to have defected in years, noted in the report that Kim gave orders to diplomatic officials overseas that they should distinguish the country’s satellite program from its nuclear arsenal and enhanced missile capabilities. Thae’s analysis bolsters an assumption that the Kim regime will continue its intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) program in spite of international sanctions.

“Kim Jong-un slyly put the satellite program, which belongs to its ICBM program, under the category of science and technology achievements of 2015,” said the 56-year-old former official, who came to Seoul with his wife and two sons. Thae writes that the categorization indicates Kim will never use the satellite program as a bargaining chip in any negotiations. The North’s long-range missile program could eventually allow it to fire a missile capable of reaching the continental U.S., possibly with a miniaturized nuclear bomb atop. Analysts have long considered the North’s satellite development as being synonymous with ICBM development. The same engine technology is used. “Kim has just given incoming administrations in both Seoul and Washington tricky homework to do,” analyzed Thae. In a New Year message delivered on Sunday, Kim, wearing a suit and necktie, said Pyongyang was in the “final stage” of preparing to test-fire an ICBM and claimed it had “soared as a nuclear and military power in the East” that no foreign states “dare encroach upon.” For a North Korean ICBM to hit the Western U.S., its scientists must master technology that will enable its missile to re-enter the atmosphere, enduring temperatures of over 7,000 degrees Celsius (12,632 degrees Fahrenheit). Pyongyang claimed one of its missiles fired in June had successfully re-entered the atmosphere after reaching an altitude of over 1,400 kilometers (870 miles), signifying it had conquered re-entry technology necessary for ICBMs. On Kim’s declaration that he will seek to bolster the country’s “self-reliant defense capability and a capability for a preemptive strike,” Thae defined the former as its nuclear capability and the latter as ICBM capability. “In a departure from the past, Kim has shown both nuclear and ICBM cards at the same time and signaled he could play with them at the same time,” said Thae. He described that tactic as “blatant blackmailing.” The former North Korean diplomat also noted the North Korean leader was “feeling a great sense of anxiety out of fear that he could fail to draw recognition as a nuclear state” from the international community, adding Kim’s biggest interest this year lies in his nuclear and missile programs. Thae also noted it was very “unusual” for Kim to have stated in his address that it was “imperative to take active measures” to improve inter-Korea ties. He said this signified Kim’s desire to resume South-North interchanges in the private sector now that all official dialogue between the two governments is shut down. “The North will employ a two-front strategy in which it will continue military provocations while proposing talks to support those in the South calling for dialogue,” he wrote. On Kim’s surprising statement of self-reflection in the address - he said, “I spent the last year in agony and self-condemnation because my capability [as a leader] fell short of my goal” - Thae said Kim was trying to justify executions and purges of North Korean officials on charges of irresponsibility and corruption to divert rising complaints from the people. “He is trying to transform his image as God to a God in agony,” said Thae. On Kim’s pledge that he would not let the glory days of Kim Il Sung, North Korea’s founder and his own grandfather, become a thing of the past, Thae said it was an admission that conditions now are “worse than what they were under Kim Il Sung.”

Yonhap News Agency – Seoul, South Korea N. Korea Completes Dock for Construction of 10,000-Ton Sub January 6, 2017 SEOUL, Jan. 6 (Yonhap) -- North Korea recently completed a large dock capable of building 10,000- ton-class submarines in a shipyard in Sinpo, South Hamkyong Province, a U.S. broadcaster, monitored in Seoul, reported Friday. "In accordance with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's instruction to build a 10,000-ton sub in 2014, the existing dock in Sinpo was expanded of late," Radio Free Asia (RFA) said, citing a North Korean source. The shipbuilding dock is 180 meters long and 25 meters wide, the source said. Experienced engineers and technicians working at a shipyard in Chongjin, North Hamkyong Province, along with their family members, also have moved to Sinpo to build submarines, according to the source. Apart from that, two 3,000-ton-class subs are currently under construction at the shipyards in Sinpo and Chongjin, the source said. http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2017/01/06/0401000000AEN2017010601050031 5.html Return to Top

The Korea Herald – Seoul, South Korea Carter: US Improving 'Nuclear, Conventional Deterrent Capabilities' to Cope with NK Threats January 6, 2017 The United States is improving "our nuclear and conventional deterrent capabilities" in the face of North Korea's nuclear and missile threats, US Defense Secretary Ash Carter said Thursday. Carter made the remark in his "exit memo" before stepping down as defense chief, calling the communist nation "a longstanding challenge in the Asia-Pacific region, where it remains dangerous both to us and our allies." "In the face of North Korea's continued nuclear and missile provocations, we're improving our nuclear and conventional deterrent capabilities," Carter said without elaborating on what he meant by improving US nuclear deterrent. Carter said the US has invested in capabilities necessary to deter North Korean provocation and aggression, ensure our forces on the Korean Peninsula remain ready and capable to "fight tonight," if necessary, and defend against threats emanating from North Korea against the United States and allies. Issue No.1246, 6 January 2017 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies (CUWS) Outreach Journal

"This includes threats posed by North Korea's nuclear and missile programs, against which Department of Defense is fully capable of defending the US homeland. Our position has been, and remains, that North Korea must abide by its international obligation to abandon its nuclear and missile programs and stop its provocative behavior," he said. The US also remains fully capable of fulfilling its treaty commitments to allies "in the event of a North Korean attack, and we're working with our Republic of Korea allies to develop a comprehensive set of alliance capabilities to counter the growing North Korean ballistic missile threat," Carter said. In response to a series of missile tests, the US and South Korea also made a joint decision to deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense missile defense system to the South by the end of 2017, Carter said. (Yonhap) http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20170106000157 Return to Top

TASS Russian News Agency – Moscow, Russia Russia’s Missile Forces to Fully Switch to Digital Data Transmission Technology by 2020 Russia’s Strategic Missile Force will also receive digital telecoms equipment, including digital radio- relay stations, automatic telephone stations of secure and open telephone communication January 06, 2017 MOSCOW, January 6. /TASS/. Russia’s Strategic Missile Force will fully switch to digital information transmission technologies by 2020, the Defense Ministry press office reported on Friday. "The pace of delivering new types of communications hardware to the troops will allow them to fully switch to modern digital information transmission technologies by 2020," the press office said. "In the past few years, the Strategic Missile Force has received new digital information transmission systems for the positioning areas of missile divisions and work is under way to renew the pool of satellite communication stations, HF and UHF radio stations and the complexes of communications hardware maintenance and repair," the press office said. Russia’s Strategic Missile Force will also receive digital telecoms equipment, including digital radio- relay stations, automatic telephone stations of secure and open telephone communication, local computer networks of the secure segment of the data transmission system, the press office said. Also, control centers of the Strategic Missile Force have been fitted out with digital telecoms equipment as part of state defense contracts, the press office said. The missile forces’ Communications Center, training centers, the Peter the Great Military Academy of the Strategic Missile Force and its branch in the Moscow Region have also been re-equipped, the Defense Ministry press office said. http://tass.com/defense/923867 Return to Top

Issue No.1246, 6 January 2017 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama Sydney Morning Herald – Sydney Australia 'Unrecoverable': Revealed N-Documents Show Iran Can Not Make Nuclear Weapons Associated Press (AP) December 24, 2016 Vienna: In an unusual move, Iran and six world powers have released previously restricted documents about their nuclear deal to enforce their view that Tehran is not in a position to try to make nuclear weapons. Some of the documents are dated January 6, 2016, shortly before the pact was implemented. But they were not made public until Friday, when they were posted on the public website of the International Atomic Energy Agency. The IAEA is monitoring the nuclear deal, which Iran reached with Germany and the five permanent UN Security Council members - the United States, Russia, China, France and Britain. The agreement stipulates that Iran can possess only low-enriched uranium, which is not suitable for weapons, and it is limited to possessing no more than 300 kilograms at any time. That is far less than would be needed to make a nuclear weapon even if it were further enriched to weapons-grade levels used for the core of nuclear warheads. When the nuclear deal was agreed on, Iran had more than 100 kilograms of liquid or solid waste containing low-enriched uranium as part of its enrichment activities. Some of the material remains and the documents posted on Friday declare the low-enriched uranium it contains as "unrecoverable" and thereby not part of the 300-kilogram limit. A letter on behalf of the European Union's foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, authorising publication of the documents was also posted on the IAEA website. It comes at a time that the incoming US administration has served notice it might seek to pull out of the agreement. This week, US President-elect Donald Trump said on Twitter that the US should "strengthen and expand" its own nuclear capabilities. Two officials from one of the five permanent Security Council member nations at the table with Iran suggested it was meant to show unity on the issue. This follows criticism from experts that US Congress members critical of the deal have seized on it as an example of allowing Iran to undercut the pact. Publication of the document comes shortly after the IAEA warned Iran to curb its production of low-enriched uranium or face the possibility of exceeding its allotted limit. The two officials said, however, that the two issues were not related, and Iran for now remained within its obligations. http://www.smh.com.au/world/unrecoverable-revealed-ndocuments-show-iran-can-not-make- nuclear-weapons-20161224-gthmpe.html Return to Top

Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) – Tehran, Iran 28 December 2016 Selling 70 Tons of Heavy Water Barometer of Iran's Nuclear Capabilities: Senior MP Tehran, Dec 28, IRNA – Iran's selling of 70 tons of heavy water in the global markets sets a reliable benchmark for the country's nuclear capabilities, says the head of the Committee for Foreign Policy and National Security in the Parliament. 'Based on the nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, Iran is only allowed to store a limited amount of heavy water produced in the country,' Alaeddin Boroujerdi said on Wednesday. 'So as it has been announced by Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, the Islamic Republic has sold the surplus of the heavy water in its possession, amounting 70 tons, to other countries over a period of seven months,' Boroujerdi said. 'Despite all the restrictions faced by Iran, supplying the heavy water in the world markets is going to be a good barometer of the Islamic Republic's nuclear capabilities,' he said. The chairman of Iran parliament's Committee for Foreign Policy and National Security also said that the heavy water produced in the country meets the best global standards and even the United States is among the customer's of Iran's heavy water. 'Other developing nations can also buy the heavy water manufactured in the Islamic Republic,' Boroujerdi said. http://www.irna.ir/en/News/82364707/ Return to Top

Times of India – Mumbai, India Nuclear-Capable Nirbhay Cruise Missile's Test Fails for the Fourth Time By Rajat Pandit, Tamil News Network (TNN) December 21, 2016 NEW DELHI: Another test of the Nirbhay land-attack cruise missile, designed to carry nuclear warheads to a strike range of 1,000-km, failed on Wednesday. This was the subsonic missile's fourth test since March 2013, all of which have more or less failed to achieve test parameters. The missile had to be destroyed in mid-air after it deviated from its flight-path along the coast in Bay of Bengal soon after launch from the Integrated Test Range at Balasore off the Odisha coast around noon on Wednesday. "The test was an utter failure, with the missile veering to the right within two minutes of take-off," said a source. While the missile's first test in March 2013 had completely failed, the second one+ was dubbed "a partial success" in October 2014. But the third test+ in October 2015 and the one on Wednesday also failed miserably. DRDO may have come a long way in developing ballistic missiles like the Agni series, which have strike ranges from 700-km to over 5,000-km, but continues to flounder in the field of cruise missiles. Issue No.1246, 6 January 2017 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama The armed forces, of course, already have the supersonic BrahMos cruise missiles developed with the help of Russia, but they have a range of only 290-km as of now and carry only conventional warheads. The Nirbhay, a stealth missile in the making for almost a decade now, was meant to fulfill the armed forces' demand for nuclear-tipped land-attack cruise missiles (LACMs) versatile enough to be fired from land, air and sea. The missile was said to be a counter to Pakistan's Babur LACM. The real big test for DRDO, of course, will be the impending fourth test of the Agni-V intercontinental ballistic missile, with a strike range over 5,000-km, in its final operational configuration from the Wheeler Island off Odisha. This test of the three-stage Agni-V, after which it will undergo user-trials by the Strategic Forces Command, is planned for end-December or early-January, as was first reported by TOI. While ballistic missiles like the Agni follow a parabolic trajectory, cruise missiles like Nirbhay are designed to fly at low-altitudes, virtually hugging the terrain, to evade enemy radars and missile defence systems. The Nirbhay, after an initial blast off with a solid-propellant booster rocket engine to gain speed and altitude, is supposed to deploy its smallish wings and tail fins in the second-stage to fly like an aircraft thereafter. The missile, which flies at a speed of 0.6-0.7 Mach and carries a 300-kg warhead, is designed to be highly maneuverable with "loitering capabilities" to first identify and then hit the intended target. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/nuclear-capable-nirbhay-cruise-missiles-test-fails-for- the-fourth-time/articleshow/56105444.cms Return to Top

The New Indian Express – Chennai, India EXCLUSIVE: DRDO's Cruise Missile Project Nirbhay on Verge of Closure By Hemant Kumar Rout, Express News Service 23rd December 2016 BHUBANESWAR: Once a pride for Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), India’s own cruise missile project Nirbhay is on the verge of closure. A highly placed source told ‘The New Indian Express’ that the project is likely to be closed as the missile has failed to deliver desired results even 12 years after the project was launched. A review of the project will be conducted shortly. Nirbhay is the country’s first indigenously built long-range sub-sonic cruise missile which can be compared with America’s Tomahawk in terms of its capability. Designed by Bengaluru-based Aeronautical Development Establishment (ADE), the missile was designed to fly at different altitudes ranging from 500 meters to four km. Launched in 2004 at a cost of Rs 48 crore, the projected date of completion (PDC) for the prestigious project was December 31, 2016. However, under trial since 2013, the missile is yet to perform as expected after four attempts in the last four years.

The project has been plagued with difficulties as the scientists are still struggling to fix the problems in the flight control software and navigation system while some others point fingers at the hardware. While the Research Centre Imarat (RCI) blamed ADE-developed software, ADE was pointing towards the defective hardware supplied by RCI. “However, it could not be ascertained which is defective, whether the software or hardware, but Nirbhay missile failed in its fourth attempt,” an insider said. There has been problem with the control software since beginning. The RCI had developed navigational hardware for their applications and it was adopted by ADE for Nirbhay. There are always differences between ADE and RCI regarding its functional efficacy, the source claimed. Defence experts have raised questions on the requirement of such a subsonic missile, which can cruise at a speed of 0.8 Mach, when supersonic cruise missile BrahMos, developed jointly with Russia, is already inducted in the armed forces. BrahMos, which flies at a speed of Mach 3, has a strike range of 290 km. Though Nirbhay can strike targets 1,000 km away, with India joining the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), it can now develop long range cruise missiles as joint ventures. While initially the expected cost of ‘Nirbhay’ was around Rs 10 crore per piece, DRDO has so far spent more than Rs 100 crore on R&D and trials. DRDO Chief Selvin Christopher and Project Director of Nirbhay Vasanth Sastri did not respond to the calls and queries from ‘The New Indian Express’. Scientific Advisor to Defence Minister G Satheesh Reddy, however, said he is unaware of any such move. http://www.newindianexpress.com/states/odisha/2016/dec/23/exclusive-drdos-cruise-missile- project-nirbhay-on-verge-of-closure-1552210.html Return to Top

Deccan Chronicle – Hyderabad, India India’s Successful Test of Nuclear-Capable Agni 5 Leaves China Worried Nuke capabilities not targeted against any nation; we abide by all applicable international obligations, says India. Press Trust of India (PTI) December 28, 2016 New Delhi: Maintaining that its strategic capabilities were not targeted against any particular country, India on Tuesday said it abides by all applicable international obligations and expects others do the same, while responding to Chinese reaction to its test-firing of Agni 5 missile. "India's strategic capabilities are not targeted against any particular country. India abides by all the applicable international obligations and hopes that all other do the same.” "India's strategic autonomy and growing engagement contributes to strategic stability," External Affairs Ministry Spokesperson Vikas Swarup said.

Sputnik International – Russian Information Agency Indian Strategic Forces Command Test-Fires 2,500-Mile Agni IV Ballistic Missiles Agni IV is integrated with a sophisticated mobile launcher that enables it to hit adversary’s strategic assets located at a distance with very short preparation time. It is already in possession of India’s Strategic Forces Command. 2 January 2017 New Delhi (Sputnik) — Amid concerns raised by China over developing long range strategic ballistic missiles, India once again test fired a nuclear capable ballistic missile from its eastern coast of Odisha on Monday. Government sources told Sputnik that the flight trial of Agni IV was ‘highly successful'. The two- stage solid propellant ballistic missile is capable of hitting rival assets at a distance of approximately 2,500 miles from the mobile launcher. A few days back, India had successfully test-fired Agni V which can travel approximately 3,400 miles with a nuclear warhead. Indian scientists had already test-fired Agni IV missiles five times since 2011 and all the tests were successful. The 20-meter missile is equipped with state-of-the-art technologies, which include indigenously developed ring laser gyro and a composite rocket motor. "The missile equipped with state of the art Avionics, 5th generation On Board Computer and with distributed architecture has the latest features to correct and guide for in-flight disturbances. These ensured the vehicle reach the target within two-digit accuracy," Defense Research and Development Organization said.

The re-entry heat shield withstood temperatures of more than 4000 degree centigrade and made sure the avionics function normally with inside temperature less than 50 degree centigrade. https://sputniknews.com/military/201701021049198084-india-agni-missiles-test/ Return to Top

Times of India – Mumbai, India If India Makes More Long-Range ICBMs, Beijing May Help Pakistan Do the Same, Says Chinese State Media By Shailaja Neelakantan January 5, 2017 NEW DELHI: Beijing wants to communicate the message that if India increases the number of its long-range missiles, it will help "all-weather friend" Pakistan do the same, Chinese media said. The context to this comment was India's final test firing of the Agni-IV inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM) on Monday. "If the UN Security Council has no objection over this (ICBMs), let it be. The range of Pakistan's nuclear missiles will also see an increase," the state-run Global Times said in an editorial, hinting that China will help Pakistan come on par with India. News outfits in China are often used by the government to convey its opinions or to test the waters or to deliver rebukes it can't through diplomatic channels. Global Times's editorial further batted for Pakistan saying it should be accorded the same nuclear privileges as India. "If the Western countries accept India as a nuclear country and are indifferent to the nuclear race between India and Pakistan, China will not stand out and stick rigidly to those nuclear rules as necessary. At this time, Pakistan should have those privileges in nuclear development that India has," the editorial said. On the one hand, the editorial said China isn't bothered by India's testing of missiles that can carry nuclear warheads, but on the other it did sound like Beijing was perturbed by Agni-IV, especially as it came close on the heels of the successful test-firing of Agni-V. "But it (China) will not sit still if India goes too far...New Delhi understands that it does little good to itself if the Sino-Indian relations are ruined by any geopolitical tricks," the editorial says later. Aside from these issues, the editorial alleged that India "has broken the UN's limits" on how many nuclear weapons and long-range ballistic missiles it can produce. "The US and some Western countries have also bent the rules on its nuclear plans. New Delhi is no longer satisfied with its nuclear capability and is seeking intercontinental ballistic missiles that can target anywhere in the world and then it can land on an equal footing with the UN Security Council's five permanent members," the editorial said.

Statfor.com – Austin, TX OPINION/Analysis An Arms Race Russia Will Not Run December 30, 2016 Summary In the 25 years since the Soviet Union fell, Russia has punctuated military buildups on its border with the occasional rattle of its nuclear saber in response to U.S. provocations. But a muted reaction to President-elect Donald Trump's recent suggestion that the United States should expand its nuclear weapons arsenal reflects a different military and economic reality for Russia, one in which the Kremlin realizes it could not afford to keep up in a new nuclear arms race. Trump's Dec. 23 pronouncement that the U.S. nuclear arsenal should be beefed up came as President Barack Obama signed a wide-ranging $618.7 billion defense spending bill. Trump's remarks, particularly his quip about reigniting an arms race, elicited criticism from the Kremlin. Russian presidential spokesman Dmitri Peskov responded that his country would not take part in any arms race, and Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova criticized the United States for trying to spend Russia to death. In years past, Russia used news of U.S. arms buildups to justify expanding its own arsenals, but echoes of the disastrous Soviet defense spending spree in the 1980s have given Moscow pause. Russia's more moderate tone does not mean it will pull back on its defense plans, but rather that the Kremlin does not want to repeat a history of military overspending that helped accelerate the demise of the Soviet Union. Analysis The United States and Russia have long been locked in a bitter standoff over Moscow's borderlands, and the tensions between the two have intensified since 2014 over the conflicts in Ukraine and Syria. Washington and Russia are implementing long-term plans in expectation of prolonged antagonism. The United States is driving measures to bolster NATO's forces along Europe's eastern flank. It established a ground-based missile-defense system in Romania in May and plans to expand NATO troop rotations starting next year. The United States also is in the midst of a $350 billion plan to modernize all three legs of its nuclear weapons triad — bombers, submarines and land-based missiles — but those upgrades do not equate to an expansion of its arsenal. In response, Russia is transforming its military by implementing a division-level structure that is focused on high-end conventional warfare against a potential enemy like NATO. It has deployed its 1st Guards Tank Army along its western border as a spearhead force prepared for offensive and defensive operations in Europe, with plans to add three brigades with the same mission and capabilities. Moscow announced in November that it will send S-400 Triumf surface-to-air missiles and nuclear-capable Iskander short-range mobile missile systems to its European exclave of Kaliningrad.

But Russia is attempting to shape its strategic one-upmanship to today's reality and not repeat Cold War mistakes. Under Russia's current foreign policy strategy, known as the Strategic Concept, it plans for future hostilities with the West that take the form of more asymmetric and regionalized proxy conflicts, such as the one in Ukraine, rather than a direct military or nuclear confrontation. Global proxy wars played a significant role in Moscow's Cold War calculations, but its tactics today are more focused on struggles closer to home. NATO remains a top concern, as evidenced by the steps Moscow is taking to shore up its military position, but Russia can afford to go only so far in its push against the West. An enduring economic recession and stagnant oil prices forced the Kremlin to trim the national budget in 2016. Military spending dropped from $66 billion in 2015 to $50 billion, or 4 percent of gross domestic product, this year. However, the modest oil price recovery over the past few months has allowed the Kremlin to toss an extra $12 billion to its defense industry. Even though Moscow plans to raise its defense budget to $60 billion in 2017, U.S. military spending still exceeds that figure tenfold. But Russia's decision to keep half of its 2017 federal budget secret means that the true amount it spends on defense is unknown. By making the budget opaque, the Kremlin gains the flexibility to shift money to its defenses without exposing itself to the disapproval of an increasingly impoverished Russian population, which has seen its social support funds diminish. Its budget-shifting ability still would not afford the Kremlin the ability to engage in the kind of arms race that defined the last years of the Cold War and helped bankrupt the Soviet Union. In the 1970s, Washington was gripped by the idea that the Soviets were far more powerful than its allies. The Pentagon shifted its strategy to boost the offensive potential it could bring against the Soviets by doubling defense spending between 1980 and 1989, a financial race the Soviets could not win. In addition, the launch of the Strategic Defense Initiative anti-ballistic missile system (colloquially known as Star Wars) showed off the United States' vast technological advantage over the Soviets. The legacy of those events weighs heavily on the Kremlin's decision-making in its current standoff with the West. Russia's increasing political, social and economic fragilities are reminiscent of those experienced by the Soviet Union in its death throes. Moscow can avoid the same kinds of instability unleashed in the late 1980s and early 1990s, as long as it heeds the lessons of the past. The quick Kremlin reaction to Trump's suggestion of a possible future arms race is an indication of such thinking. But Moscow's reactions are also an indication of the opportunities it sees in 2017 to relieve some of the foreign pressure on it. As the European Union's divides widen, the united Western front that has squeezed Russia in recent years is showing signs of stress. Moreover, Moscow sees an opening with the incoming U.S. administration to reshape the tensions between the two. Though it will not end their conflict, increased engagement could lead to the easing of certain pressures, such as economic sanctions and military posture. At this point in the U.S. leadership transition, the Kremlin does not want to take the chance of being perceived as hostile. So Russia will maintain its strategic position against the United States and its allies while trying to ensure that the tensions with them remain manageable. https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/arms-race-russia-will-not-run-0 Return to Top

Issue No.1246, 6 January 2017 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama The Diplomat – Tokyo, Japan OPINION/Flashpoints 2017: Year of the North Korean Intercontinental Ballistic Missile? Kim Jong-un lays out an offer for Donald Trump in his new year’s address. By Ankit Panda January 03, 2017 North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s fifth new year’s address to kick off 2017 quickly picked up headlines around the world for a reference to the country’s as-yet-untested intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) program. Kim noted that North Korea had “entered the final stage of preparation for the test launch of [an] intercontinental ballistic missile” in 2016. Kim’s statement wasn’t bluster. North Korea, as it made progress on its submarine-launched KN-11 ballistic missile and intermediate-range Hwasong-10 ballistic missile last year, also made important strides that will take it closer to realizing a flight test of its KN-08 and KN-14 ICBM systems. (Neither system has been tested, but both have been seen publicly on transporter erector launchers.) For instance, in September last year, North Korea carried out a successful test of 80-ton force single engine liquid fuel booster that could one day propel its ICBMs. September’s test lasted 200 seconds and involved a “newly developed high-power engine is a single engine whose thrust is 80 [ton force].” Earlier in the year, North Korea showed off a ballistic missile nose cone capable of surviving atmospheric reentry — a must for any intermediate-range or intercontinental-range missile and something that was long thought to be one of the few areas out of North Korea’s reach. The reference to the ICBM in Kim’s address came alongside a laundry list review of the achievements in North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile testing in 2016. Indeed, the North Korean leader had much to be proud of given that 2016 marked the busiest year of missile and nuclear testing since 2006, when North Korea tested its first nuclear device under Kim’s father, Kim Jong-il. The U.S. Department of Defense’s 2015 assessment of North Korea’s ICBM program estimated that “if successfully designed and developed, the KN-08 likely would be capable of reaching much of the continental United States.” North Korea already has some familiarity with testing long-range rockets through the country’s satellite launch vehicle program. In February 2016, Pyongyang launched the Kwangmyongsong-4, its fourth satellite launch vehicle, which, if configured for atmospheric reentry and weapons payload delivery, would be able to strike much of the continental United States. Significantly, Kim’s 4,500-word new year’s address included an off-ramp: If the United States and South Korea stop their expansive and annual Foal Eagle and Key Resolve drills, North Korea may freeze testing. The following paragraph was almost designed for direct consumption by the incoming U.S. administration of Donald Trump: We will continue to build up our self-defense capability, the pivot of which is the nuclear forces, and the capability for preemptive strike as long as the United States and its vassal forces keep on nuclear threat and blackmail and as long as they do not stop their war games they stage at our doorstep disguising them as annual events. We will defend peace and security of our state at all costs and by our own efforts, and make a positive contribution to safeguarding global peace and stability.

This paragraph also seems to follow from the North Korean Ministry of Foreign Affair’s long memorandum in the final weeks of 2016. (I discussed that here.) Pyongyang, perhaps aware of Trump’s preference for deal-making, is laying down an opening negotiation position, hoping that the Trump administration breaks with U.S. status quo policy that has applied punitive sanctions on North Korea while waiting for a bona fide gesture toward denuclearization, allowing the long-dead Six-Party Talks to resume. North Korea has additionally held off on significant and public missile testing since the outcome of the U.S. election. It’s final major test was the failed launch of a Hwasong-10 during the final U.S. presidential debate in late-October. North Korea may have additionally carried out a cold ejection test of its submarine-launched ballistic missile in December, but notably did not publicize it. North Korea’s signaling, through its tests, suggests that it wants the United States to come to terms with the fact that denuclearization (or “complete, verifiable, and irreversible denuclearization”) has failed. Meanwhile, direct messaging from Pyongyang — both through the Foreign Ministry memo and Kim’s address — suggests that if a Trump administration wants to discuss anything with North Korea, regular U.S.-South Korea exercises must stop. Setting aside what North Korea wants, there are strong signs that the incoming U.S. administration will make the country’s nuclear program a priority. Recall that early in the presidential transition, outgoing U.S. President Barack Obama impressed on Trump that North Korea should be his administration’s top national security priority. Reuters, shortly after Kim’s address, reported that, according to an unnamed U.S. intelligence official, the U.S. president-elect’s first request for a classified briefing was on North Korea. Given Trump’s disinterest in briefings otherwise, this suggests that the administration may be taking Obama’s message seriously. Moreover, Michael Flynn, Trump’s national security advisor designate, has also emphasized the urgency of North Korea’s nuclear program. North Korea’s place on the incoming administration’s national security agenda may be clearer than the anticipated direction of U.S. policy. As a candidate, Trump hinted at directly speaking with Kim Jong-un. (The United States and North Korea have no formal diplomatic ties.) However, on Monday evening, Trump took to Twitter to declaim the following: “North Korea just stated that it is in the final stages of developing a nuclear weapon capable of reaching parts of the U.S. It won’t happen!” Trump’s tweets may or may not play an important part in how his administration ultimate shapes policy, but it’s at least worth noting that there’s an implicit declaration that “a nuclear weapon capable of reaching parts of the U.S.” would cross a red line. (Alternatively, the tweet can be read as Trump simply asserting that North Korea’s claim is a bluff and it’s not as far along with its ICBM as Kim claims.) While Trump’s tweet is ambiguous, how the administration will handle the problem of North Korea is even less clear. I wouldn’t expect a Trump-Kim summit anytime soon, but something will have to give in the existing U.S. approach to North Korea to prevent further missile testing by North Korea (and yes, that includes a potential flight test of an intercontinental ballistic missile). Even if Trump doesn’t think a North Korean ICBM is realistic, many nuclear and missile experts do. One of the more worrying trends out of North Korea in 2016 was the unprecedented rapid pace of Musudan testing, which appeared frenzied at times, especially in April and May before the one successful test in June.

Global Times – Beijing, China OPINION/Editorial India Needs to Cool its Missile Fever Source: Global Times January 4, 2017 On Monday, India successfully tested its long-range ballistic missile, Agni-IV, which can travel 4,000 kilometers and carry a nuclear warhead, in the wake of an earlier successful test-firing of Agni-V that has a range of more than 5,000 kilometers. The country's media were elated in their reports, stressing that India's tests of the nuclear-capable ballistic missile "covers entire China." "Agni-V can deter China," said The Times of India. India has broken the UN's limits on its development of nuclear weapons and long-range ballistic missile. The US and some Western countries have also bent the rules on its nuclear plans. New Delhi is no longer satisfied with its nuclear capability and is seeking intercontinental ballistic missiles that can target anywhere in the world and then it can land on an equal footing with the UN Security Council's five permanent members. India is "promising" in vying for permanent membership on the UN Security Council as it is the sole candidate who has both nuclear capability and economic potential. China should realize that Beijing wouldn't hold back India's development of long-range ballistic missiles. However, Chinese don't feel India's development has posed any big threat to it. And India wouldn't be considered as China's main rival in the long run. It is simply believed that currently there is a vast disparity in power between the two countries and India knows what it would mean if it poses a nuclear threat to China. The best choice for Beijing and New Delhi is to build rapport. If the Western countries accept India as a nuclear country and are indifferent to the nuclear race between India and Pakistan, China will not stand out and stick rigidly to those nuclear rules as necessary. At this time, Pakistan should have those privileges in nuclear development that India has. China is sincere in developing friendly ties with India. But it will not sit still if India goes too far. Meanwhile, New Delhi understands that it does little good to itself if the Sino-Indian relations are ruined by any geopolitical tricks. In general, it is not difficult for India to produce intercontinental ballistic missiles which can cover the whole world. If the UN Security Council has no objection over this, let it be. The range of Pakistan's nuclear missiles will also see an increase. If the world can adapt to these, China should too. Issue No.1246, 6 January 2017 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies (CUWS) Outreach Journal

India still maintains a strategic defensive posture before China. The Chinese people should not be led astray by India's extreme words online about its deterrence ability against China. There are similar rhetorics targeting at India in China's cyber world. But, these aggressive online rhetorics count for little. At present, India's GDP accounts for about 20 percent of China's. China's strategic nuclear missiles have long ago realized global coverage, and China's overall military industrial capacity is much better than that of India. For India, China is something to inspire ambition and invoke patriotism. However, India should realize that owning several missiles does not mean it is a nuclear power. Even though India does become a nuclear power, it will be a long time before it can show off its strength to the world. This is an editorial of the Chinese edition of the Global Times Tuesday. http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1027113.shtml Return to Top

China Military.com – Beijing, China OPINION/Commentary Expert: ROK Shouldn't Imagine China Accepting THAAD Source: China Military January 5, 2017 BEIJING, Jan. 5 (ChinaMil) -- Since the government of the Republic of Korea (ROK) decided to deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile battery last July, China and ROK haven't stopped arguing. Although the currently suspended President of ROK Park Geun-hye, who started all the entanglement by approving the THAAD deployment, was impeached by the National Assembly because of the Choi-gate that threw the ROK political world into a chaos, and she had no diplomatic or political leverage whatsoever, the ROK Prime Minister Hwang Kyo-ahn who is acting president now insisted that "THAAD deployment is irreversible". The ROK defense ministry released similar information, which shattered the hopes for ROK opposition parties and people living in the place where THAAD is to be deployed, who once placed their hopes on the ROK government to suspend, freeze or eventually cancel the deployment. Meanwhile, some ROK scholars specializing in China issues continued to take the US-ROK military alliance as the diplomatic cornerstone and called for reinforcing the US-Japan-ROK military regime. They seemed to have formed such an optimistic forecast that although China won't accept THAAD, it cannot do anything about it if ROK does deploy it. In other words, they thought China had no choice but to accept it. Others believed that if China does sanction ROK because of THAAD, that will be a "pyrrhic victory", so China will sacrifice security interests for economic and trade interests since the two countries have become too interdependent in economic and trade relations.

Issue No.1246, 6 January 2017 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama Moreover, ROK's THAAD deployment is supported by the US, and neither China nor US dares to have a complete falling-out now. In sum, those people held that China will eventually accept ROK deploying the THAAD system, but their views are not completely ungrounded. The China-ROK confrontation or even hostility arising from THAAD will hurt both countries, and China seems to have the reasons to let ROK get away with it from a geopolitical perspective. But the question is: is there any room for bargaining about the nature of introducing THAAD to ROK? The answer is no. First, ROK's deployment of THAAD threatens China's geo-security and core interests, and Beijing has enough reason to be angry. THAAD's front-end reconnaissance and terminal interception capability far outstrips the need to fend off threats from the DPRK. Once it's deployed, China's strategic depth including military deterrence will be completely exposed. Have those ROK scholars thought what that means for China? Once a country's security and core interests are challenged, trade, culture and fashion, no matter how important and substantial they are, doesn't matter anymore. Some ROK scholars reckoned that given the mounting downward economic pressure and the complicated geo-situations in Northeast Asia, China doesn't have the gut or courage to adopt a tough stance. Don't they know that "never trade core interests" is China's consistent policy and practice? And it is China's bottom line that's especially important today. Second, deploying THAAD doesn't just concern ROK itself. The ROK, the US, Japan and China, none of them can stay intact if anything happens to the others. China won't allow any instigation of war, trouble or chaos at its doorstep, nor will it allow such obvious hidden hazards. The ROK is sending trouble to its neighbors on the pretext of self-defense, which appears righteous but is in fact extremely irresponsible. Third, deploying THAAD will not only add fuel to the flame of Chinese people's public opinions, but also pour salt on the wounds in the ROK society. The flame of Chinese public opinions ignited by ROK will make trouble for the upcoming 25th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic ties between the two countries, and will easily spread to burn ROK too. Some ROK scholars mistakenly thought that the Chinese government cannot bear the immense pressure from public opinions. Some even held that Chinese tourists will travel to ROK as usual even if bilateral relations worsen, and put up the attitude that "public opinions don't follow government order and let's see what Beijing can do". They mistook China's unwillingness to hurt cultural exchanges and tourism between the two countries for its submission to public opinion pressure. This is understandable if it is just young cynicism, but if it's the intentional hype by elite scholars, they are as good as forcing China to divert the public sentiment to be against ROK. China used to respect and attach importance to the cooperation with ROK, and still takes improving bilateral relations as an important part of its surrounding diplomacy. But if ROK think tanks take this as a sign that China will make unconditional concessions on major principles such as geo- strategy and national security, they cannot be more wrong. Issue No.1246, 6 January 2017 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies (CUWS) Outreach Journal

There are ancient Chinese sayings that advise people to "forbear small inconveniences for the big picture", but that doesn't apply to THAAD deployment. The ROK deploying THAAD is no small matter. It's a touchstone that will test Beijing's principles and stance and its capability to cope with public opinions, and also test the Blue House's wisdom and sincerity in not splitting its society and failing its people again. Relevant parties should all bear in mind that THAAD is an extremely sensitive presence in the Northeast Asian geo-strategy, and there is no room for bargaining about the nature of "deploying THAAD in ROK". If the ROK insists on going down the wrong path, it will only find itself over the barrel. Written by Da Zhigang, research fellow at the Northeast Asia Institute of Heilongjiang Provincial Academy of Social Sciences, the views do not necessarily reflect those of eng.chinamil.com.cn. http://english.chinamil.com.cn/view/2017-01/05/content_7439227.htm Return to Top

ABOUT THE USAF CUWS The USAF Counterproliferation Center was established in 1998 at the direction of the Chief of Staff of the Air Force. Located at Maxwell AFB, this Center capitalizes on the resident expertise of Air University, while extending its reach far beyond - and influences a wide audience of leaders and policy makers. A memorandum of agreement between the Air Staff Director for Nuclear and Counterproliferation (then AF/XON), now AF/A5XP) and Air War College Commandant established the initial manpower and responsibilities of the Center. This included integrating counterproliferation awareness into the curriculum and ongoing research at the Air University; establishing an information repository to promote research on counterproliferation and nonproliferation issues; and directing research on the various topics associated with counterproliferation and nonproliferation. The Secretary of Defense's Task Force on Nuclear Weapons Management released a report in 2008 that recommended "Air Force personnel connected to the nuclear mission be required to take a professional military education (PME) course on national, defense, and Air Force concepts for deterrence and defense." As a result, the Air Force Nuclear Weapons Center, in coordination with the AF/A10 and Air Force Global Strike Command, established a series of courses at Kirtland AFB to provide continuing education through the careers of those Air Force personnel working in or supporting the nuclear enterprise. This mission was transferred to the Counterproliferation Center in 2012, broadening its mandate to providing education and research to not just countering WMD but also nuclear deterrence. In February 2014, the Center’s name was changed to the Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies to reflect its broad coverage of unconventional weapons issues, both offensive and defensive, across the six joint operating concepts (deterrence operations, cooperative security, major combat operations, irregular warfare, stability operations, and homeland security). The term “unconventional weapons,” currently defined as nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons, also includes the improvised use of chemical, biological, and radiological hazards. The CUWS's military insignia displays the symbols of nuclear, biological, and chemical hazards. The arrows above the hazards represent the four aspects of counterproliferation - counterforce, active defense, passive defense, and consequence management.

Issue No.1246, 6 January 2017 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538