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Retail Capacity Study (2016)

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Retail Capacity Study (2016) Fife Council Fife Retail Capacity Study 2016 January 2017 June 2016 Roderick MacLean Associates Ltd In association with Ryden 1/2 West Cherrybank, Stanley Road Edinburgh EH6 4SW Tel. 0131 552 4440 Mobile 0775 265 5706 e mail roderick @ rmacleanassociates.com Contents 1 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 1 1.1 The consultants ............................................................................................... 1 1.2 Purpose and contents ..................................................................................... 1 1.3 Price base ....................................................................................................... 1 1.4 Fife household survey 2016 ............................................................................ 1 2 Retail catchment areas and population ..................................................................... 2 2.1 Sub area retail catchments .............................................................................. 2 2.2 Population projections ..................................................................................... 2 3 Planning policy framework ........................................................................................ 4 3.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 4 3.2 Scottish Planning Policy .................................................................................. 4 3.3 Current and Proposed SESplan ...................................................................... 4 3.4 Current and Proposed TAYplan ....................................................................... 5 3.5 Proposed FIFEplan ......................................................................................... 5 4 National trends in retailing ........................................................................................ 6 4.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 6 4.2 Overview ......................................................................................................... 6 4.3 The economy .................................................................................................. 6 4.4 Retail market ................................................................................................... 6 4.5 Summary ........................................................................................................ 8 5 Fife retail market overview ........................................................................................ 9 5.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 9 5.2 Fife overview ................................................................................................... 9 5.3 West Fife- market activity and demand .......................................................... 11 5.4 Mid Fife- market activity and demand ............................................................ 12 5.5 East Fife- market activity and demand ........................................................... 15 6 Convenience expenditure and turnover ................................................................... 17 6.1 Introduction ................................................................................................... 17 6.2 Convenience goods- definition ...................................................................... 17 6.3 Convenience expenditure potential ................................................................ 17 6.4 Convenience shopping patterns-market shares ............................................. 17 6.5 Convenience expenditure and turnover by catchment area ............................ 19 6.6 Convenience floorspace and turnover 2016 ................................................... 19 6.7 Online food shopping .................................................................................... 22 6.8 Convenience planning consents & opportunities ............................................ 22 7 Convenience expenditure capacity ......................................................................... 27 7.1 Introduction ................................................................................................... 27 7.2 Definition ....................................................................................................... 27 7.3 Spare convenience expenditure capacity ....................................................... 27 8 Comparison expenditure and turnover .................................................................... 31 8.1 Introduction ................................................................................................... 31 8.2 Comparison goods- definition ........................................................................ 31 8.3 Comparison expenditure potential and the internet ........................................ 31 8.4 Comparison shopping patterns- market shares .............................................. 33 8.5 Comparison expenditure and turnover by catchment area ............................. 33 8.6 Comparison floorspace and turnover 2016 .................................................... 38 8.7 Comparison planning consents & opportunities ............................................. 41 8.8 St James Centre ........................................................................................... 41 9 Comparison expenditure capacity ........................................................................... 43 9.1 Introduction ................................................................................................... 43 9.2 Spare comparison expenditure capacity ........................................................ 43 9.3 Spare comparison expenditure capacity ........................................................ 43 9.4 Interpretation ................................................................................................. 45 10 Conclusions............................................................................................................ 47 10.1 Retail market trends ...................................................................................... 47 10.2 Fife retail market ........................................................................................... 47 10.3 Forecast convenience retail capacity ............................................................. 48 10.4 Forecast comparison retail capacity............................................................... 48 Appendix 1 Fife retail catchment areas- postcode sector composition and survey zones Appendix 2 Fife household survey 2016 (NEMS)- list of questions Appendix 3 Fife retail catchment areas- population forecasts Appendix 4 Convenience shopping patterns from the household survey Appendix 5 Convenience expenditure inflows and outflows, including visitor spending Appendix 6 Internet and mail order spending on comparison goods from the household survey Appendix 7 Comparison shopping patterns from the household survey Appendix 8 Comparison expenditure inflows and outflows, including visitor spending Appendix 9 Low comparison expenditure forecast Appendix 10 Retail Parks in Fife- list of retailers Fife Retail Capacity Study 2016 1 Introduction 1.1 The consultants 1.4 Fife household survey 2016 1.1.1 In December 2015, Fife Council 1.4.1 In early 2016, Fife Council commissioned Roderick MacLean Associates commissioned NEMS Market Research to Ltd to undertake this retail study, with Ryden undertake a household telephone interview LLP as sub consultants covering the retail survey to update their original survey in 2009. market. The survey covered some 1,800 households, with questions on shopping patterns and use 1.2 Purpose and contents and perceptions of the main town centres in 1.2.1 The Fife Retail Capacity Study Fife. This Retail Capacity Study draws on the 2016 is the latest in a series of annual retail findings of the NEMS survey on current capacity studies produced by consultants for shopping patterns, so it represents a major Fife Council. These follow a similar format, with update from previous retail capacity studies. updates to the retail capacity forecasts every 1.4.2 The interview survey was divided year and updates on retail market conditions into quotas applied to ten zones, and at a higher every second year. level, the three retail catchment areas. These 1.2.2 The main purposes are to areas are shown in Appendix 1. The list of contribute updated information to inform the questions is provided in Appendix 2. The output emerging FIFEplan Local Development Plan tables produced by NEMS Market Research, and to assist development management on showing the questions and responses, are issues relating to planning applications for retail provided in separate documents held by Fife development. Council. 1.2.3 The Study contains the following updates from previous editions: Identification of the three retail catchment areas in Fife (includes updates), and population projections; Summary of the planning policy framework on town centres and retailing covering Fife; Appraisal of retail trends and retail market demand in Fife; Broad overview of the general quality of the retail offer in the main towns; Forecasts of spare convenience and comparison retail capacity for 2016-21 and 2021 to 2026; and Interpretation
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