159 September 2008 - No.
English version
CLOSE-UP: AVOCADO
Doha non-agreement & the banana dispute
European apple & pear harvest forecasts /passionfruit.cirad.fr :/
Content published by the Market News Service of CIRAD − All rights reserved http Content publishedbythe MarketNewsServiceofCIRAD−Allrightsreserved www.dole.fr Cour d’Alsace- Bât.C6A-94619 RungisCedex -Tél.:0156 3426-Fax :0156 34 2699 Dole France ISO 9001:2000 > > > oevu fr sonsavoir-faire marketing etune large Dole vous offre plus grande diversité :Fuerte, Hass, EttingerouRyan… Un engagement detous lesinstants pouroffrir lemeilleurdesfruits etla chaque année. En France, Dolecommercialise plusdetrois millionsdecartons importés Afrique duSud. monde :Israël, Mexique,Kenya, Chili,Pérou, RépubliqueDominicaine et Leader européen enavocats sélectionnés avec soinauxquatre coinsdu segmentation pourpromouvoir l'avocat.
Conception TPC Tél. : 01 41 31 58 90 French Agricultural Research Centre for International Development Performance of Tropical Production and Processing Systems “The term democracy contrasts historically Department with monarchical and oligarchical systems in which the power rests with
Publisher and is transmitted by a small elite group”. This is the definition of democ- Cirad racy proposed in Wikipedia, the web-based encyclopedia. This simple, TA B-26/PS4 straightforward and semantically clearcut sentence seems to be hard to 34398 Montpellier cedex 5 France interpret in the language of international trade in Switzerland—at least Tel: 33 (0) 4 67 61 71 41 with that of WTO members when they are in Geneva. By member, I Fax: 33 (0) 4 67 61 59 28 should specify that I am referring to the ‘most influential members’ of this Email: [email protected] http://passionfruit.cirad.fr prestigious group. Publishing director Hubert de Bon The Doha Round of negotiations last July, involving ministers of the 153 WTO member countries, provided further evidence of the democratic Chief Editors Denis Loeillet and Eric Imbert shortcomings that prevail even within international institutions. Most of these negotiations were actually held in small working groups formed with Editor Catherine Sanchez a scant number of ministers from a few G7 countries. We should never- theless be heartened by the fact that some emerging countries that were Computer graphics Martine Duportal recently still in the developing stage—such as Brazil and India—will here- after be integrated in this ‘happy few’ group. But efficiency takes prece- Iconography Régis Domergue dence over everything else, of course. However, the other sovereign States and full members of the United Nations may still not be really Website Unité multimédia (Cirad) pleased about this jumpseat. If only for this reason, the parties waiting in Advertising Manager the wings must have been delighted that these discussions failed. Eric Imbert Denis Loeillet Subscriptions Sylviane Morand Translator Simon Barnard Printed by Imp’Act Imprimerie 34980 St Gély du Fesc, France Separate French and English editions ontents ISSN C French: 1256-544X The latest on... English: 1256-5458 p. 2 Doha non-agreement and the banana dispute CPPAP Deus ex machina? French: 0711 E 88281 English: 0711 R 88282 Denis Loeillet © Copyright Cirad p. 4 European apple and pear production Prospects for 2008: open market for pear but keep an eye on Subscription rate apples EUR 190 euros 11 issues per year Cécilia Ceylerette Close-up by Eric Imbert p. 7 AVOCADO EURO - 23 September 2008 The European avocado market: a 2007-08 balance marked by Currency 1 euro = a strong deficit from northern hemisphere production sources US dollar 1.4731 Avocado production in Chile: continued dynamism Japanese yen 155.42 Statistics panorama: world, EU, USA, Japan Swiss franc 1.5926 Producer country sheets: Israel, Peru, Spain Pound sterling 0.79505 Cultivation of avocado Swedish krona 9.5924 Avocado varieties Danish krone 7.4599 Avocado pests and diseases Norwegian krone 8.215 Avocado post-harvest Canadian dollar 1.5233 Australian dollar 1.7511 European Market - June 2008 New Zealand dollar 2.1393 p. 48 Indicators Litchi Brazilian Real 2.67 Avocado Mango Czech koruna 24.143 Banana Pineapple Polish zloty 3.3116 Orange Sea freight Chinese yuan renminbi 10.037 Grapefruit Estonian kroon 15.6466 Slovak koruna 30.285 Eric Imbert, Pierre Gerbaud, Thierry Paqui, Richard Bright Turkish lira 1.8295 Wholesale market prices in Europe South African rand 11.8953 South Korean won 1 692.0 p. 59 June 2008 Source: Central European Bank Cover photograph courtesy of Régis Domergue Content published by the Market News Service of CIRAD − All rights reserved No. 159 September 2008 1 THE LATEST ON...
Doha non-agreement and the banana dispute
Deus ex machina?
he WTO discussions that which had been presented Geneva in July had let to me- Tstarted in Geneva on 21 quite rightly as the subject of diation by Pascal Lamy and July broke down on 29 July. the most delicate negotiation. the proposing of EUR150 per The tenacity—sometimes tonne on 1 January 2009 and bordering on stubbornness— EUR116 in 2016. In July, the of Pascal Lamy, Director of Latin American countries in the WTO, did not vanquish the the Tropical Products Group misgivings in very many coun- Doubts with regard to made a counter-proposal: tries with regard to opening the partial agreement EUR141 in 2009 and EUR109 their economies a little on banana in 2014. The ACP countries The impossible more. For this fear was then replied by setting the agreement on the the reason for the mul- The question of the scheduled starting point at EUR150 in tilateral agreement lowering of customs dues on 2009 and a decrease to Doha Round running aground. European banana imports EUR116 in 2019. Finally, the negotiations of July Technicians explain from third countries (excluding bargaining finished with a 1998 blocks the that it is a blockage on ACP countries) would thus compromise between the scheduled lowering a secondary theme, seem to be a file that closed Latin American countries and that of SSM (special provisionally. The satisfaction the EU on the basis of of the customs safeguard mecha- shown by the ACP countries EUR148 in 2009 following a tariffs applied to nisms) that allow de- and EU producers is meas- decrease ending at EUR114 dollar bananas velopment countries to ured however as the defence in 2016. imported to the EU. raise customs tariffs of the customs tariff of temporarily to handle EUR176 per tonne is still topi- The few ACP countries most This suits ACP and an increase in imports cal for them. Indeed, real pro- concerned by this agreement community or a fall in prices. The gress was made on the sub- fear that this compromise may producers. But the official line is reassur- ject during the nine days of serve as a basis for all future Geneva talks led to ing and minimises the discussions at the WTO and discussion of the banana difficulties that remain during pre-Geneva negotia- question, quite apart from the a compromise before the Doha tions. Thus, on 30 July, as future of the Doha Agreement. between Europeans Round is finally com- soon as the ministerial meet- The Latin American countries and Latin pleted. This grain of ing was over, the Latin Ameri- have played very well. They Americans. It sand in the machinery can countries profited from the divided carefully in order to can also be seen as a WTO Trade Negotiations rule better, drastically reduc- remains to be way for a majority of Committee to deplore the ing the number of ACP states known whether the members to slow or overall breakdown but above that feel concerned by the EU will wish to set even halt the process. all to congratulate themselves up a partial Negotiators showed on the agreement with the EU their relief when India to settle 16 years of disagree- agreement in order and the United States ment on banana. However, to get rid of the finally came head to the European Commission
whole business or head and took the dampened the enthusiasm of © Régis Domergue wait for a blame for a failure that dollar producers by stating everybody hoped for that the banana dispute is an hypothetical but that nobody wished integral part of the Doha resumption of to endorse. Wrongly or Agreement and cannot be multilateral rightly, the globalisa- removed and signed sepa- negotiations. tion of economies rately. The risk for the EU is to seems to be the sacri- have to further lower the cus- ficial victim for the diffi- toms tariff on the occasion of culties of small peoples to a possible completion of the develop at best or even, for Doha Round or the bloc by some, to succeed in feeding bloc (CACM, Andean Commu- themselves. Phew! The EU nity or Mercosur) conclusion will not take the blame and of bilateral agreements. neither will France, very upset with the European Commis- However, the dossier did not sioner Peter Mandelson and lead to forecasting a possible with Pascal Lamy. And blame compromise. The preparatory will not be laid on bananas discussions for the meeting in
Content published by the Market News Service of CIRAD − All rights reserved 2 September 2008 No. 159 THE LATEST ON...
of the ACP states and their growers at a high- level meeting with Michel Barnier, the French minister of agriculture, in Paris on 30 April 2008. They joined a few ACP states in Yaoundé (Cameroon) at the end of August to state once again their solidarity as regards the defence of the customs tariff. They also encouraged the Commission not to give up and to appeal against the conclusions of the panels formed at the re- quest of Ecuador and the United States. Indeed, at the end of 2007 the EU had be condemned to ensure the conformity of its market with interna- tional law. The European Commission had until the end of August to lodge appeals against the two decisions with the Dispute Settlement Body (DSB).
… and the Commission's appeal
The suspense lasted until 28 August, when the Commission decided to appeal to the DSB. The Commission kept to the regulation and legal aspects of the ruling, setting aside the strictly economic arguments such as the increase in problem (Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire and Surinam), European banana imports and the favourable with the others considering the discipline of the trend in the market share of the most-favoured group and the erosion of the preferences nation (MFN) group. The process has been set awarded to sugar, rum or cocoa. The ACP coun- in motion and the calendar is a tight one. The tries concerned have very little margin for nego- Commission delivered its written argument to the tiation. It is possible to use the absolute weapon, DSB on 4 September and the other parties have that is to say not ratifying the Economic Partner- until 22 September to deliver theirs. The hearing ship Agreement (EPA) signed with the EU is scheduled in Geneva on 16 and 17 October. (FruiTrop 151, December 2007, pages 7 to 9). The final decision should be made by the end of But this seems fairly unlikely. The most probable November or a few weeks later. Indeed, the DSB option is that of obtaining financial aid, as had secretariat's agenda seems particularly full. been decided when the common market organi- sation of bananas was set up in 1994 by the As always on the subject of banana, it is very adoption of the special support actions (SSA) difficult to make even short-term predictions. Will system, with funding of EUR78 million, subse- a partial agreement come into force to please quently broadened in 1999 by the special frame- Latin American suppliers, most member-states work of assistance (SFA) with an allocation of and the Commission—all of whom are ex- some EUR367 million and that is to cease at the hausted by the question? Will there be a cate- end of 2009. gorical refusal of the partial agreement so as not to jeopardise the future? Will the Doha Round negotiations be resumed? Will there be final conclusions as regards the US and Ecuadorean The Yaoundé appeal… panels? Uncertainty concerning the near future of the sector still remains 16 years after the set- European producers look askance at a decrease ting up of the common market organisation of in the customs tariff too. They know that the level banana contributes to the good behaviour of the Euro- pean market and hence their incomes. It will be Denis Loeillet, Cirad remembered that they shared the point of view [email protected]
Banana — European Union — Evaluation of banana supplies — Tonnes
Banana type or origin Year Sub-total Exports Supplies Community ACP Others ($)
2003 754 216 786 798 2 578 827 4 119 841 6 020 4 113 821 2004 750 910 782 598 3 073 764 4 607 272 11 029 4 596 243 2005 648 395 764 357 2 959 464 4 372 216 4 970 4 367 246 2006 641 559 905 692 3 290 022 4 837 273 8 392 4 828 881 2007 551 798 837 050 3 841 908 5 230 756 9 270 5 221 486 Source: Eurostat, European Commission / Processing: Cirad Market News Service
Content published by the Market News Service of CIRAD − All rights reserved No. 159 September 2008 3 THE LATEST ON...
European apple and pear production
Prospects for 2008: open market for pear but keep an eye on apples
uropean apple and pear parison with 2007). Total shipped to Russia. However, Eproduction first of all production in EU-27 should forecasts total 630 000 ton- suffered frosts in April that in therefore reach 9.97 million nes at best this year. Like- particular reduced the abun- tonnes (+ 13.6% in compari- wise, intra-community trade dant flowering. Some species son with 2007), an average flows may be smaller as de- sustained losses of more figure 10 to 11 million tonnes mand may well be duller on than 80%. Pears were par- less than the harvests at the the northern European mar- ticularly seriously affected by beginning of the decade. The kets. Indeed, the German frost. However, harvests 2008 pear harvest is the market seems clearer today were compromised above all smallest of recent years at than it was last year (945 000 by a long cold, damp spell in 2.16 million tonnes, 14% tonnes, i.e. a 12% fall in com- the spring. These conditions down on last year's crop. parison with 2007), but the also affected fruit size, decrease in German apple which is fairly promis- exports to eastern European ing and even slightly markets may result in a heav- larger than average ier domestic market. Simi- European apple and for both apple and The great return of larly, the British market may pear harvest pear. Colour should eastern European be lacking for European ex- be satisfactory but apples porters as it may open very forecasts were scab is sometimes late, especially for bicolour made public at the serious. Many fruits After a fairly euphoric first fruits, because of the in- Prognosfruit were also damaged by half of 2008, the apple mar- crease in UK production hail and will be har- ket should gradually return to (+ 16% in 'Gala' and + 11% in congress held in vested for processing. its traditional pattern with the 'Braeburn' in comparison with Kent, UK, last return of eastern European 2007). Processing outlets will month. They show apples to the markets. It is be much less buoyant for true that parameters at the western European production that European Average apple start of the season are more as this benefited in 2007 from production has favourable than in 2007, with the strong deficit in eastern harvest and a prices 20 to 30% been strongly deficit in pears higher as a result of Apple affected by the small quantities Estimated European crop particularly Finally, a European of southern hemi- (EU-15) apple harvest Comparison with (%) unfavourable sphere apples re- of 6.6 million tonnes is maining (shipments 000 tonnes 2008-09 last 4 years 2007-08 weather in the 7% down on 2007, a to the European average deficit comparable to spring. This is market 15% down Total EU-27 9 978 + 13.6 + 1.4 that of 2006 and the on 2007) and prac- of which EU-15 6 652 - 7 - 4.3 resulting is fairly second smallest har- tically no stocks of Spain 643 + 7 + 7 substantial losses vest of the decade. fruits from previous Greece 236 0 - 10 However, the harvest harvests. However, in most production United Kingdom 193 - 2 + 6 in the eastern Euro- this trend may not Netherlands 385 - 3 + 1 zones in western pean countries is re- last and the Euro- Portugal 245 - 5 - 6 Europe. turning to a volume pean market might Italy 1 992 - 7 - 3 close to normal with become heavier France 1 522 - 9 - 10 3.3 million tonnes, fairly rapidly for Germany 945 - 12 - 3 after the very large lack of export out- Belgium 311 - 13 - 10 deficit observed last lets. In 2007, ex- Austria 154 - 18 - 10 year (+ 103% in ports to destina- Denmark 26 - 19 - 5 com- tions outside the of which NMS 3 326 + 103 + 15 EU reached a re- Slovakia 44 + 340 + 63 cord cumulated Hungary 525 + 159 + 15 778 000 tonnes in Poland 236 + 115 + 17 April, that is to say Lithuania 85 + 113 + 12 44% more than in Czech Rep. 144 + 27 0 2006 and including Slovenia 60 - 2 + 4 354 000 tonnes Bulgaria 56 - 7 - 12 © Régis Domergue Source: Eurofel
Content published by the Market News Service of CIRAD − All rights reserved 4 September 2008 No. 159 THE LATEST ON...
Apple — Estimated European crop Europe, especially potential is similar to that of 2007. Likewise, the by variety as a large proportion 'Granny Smith' market may be fairly buoyant as of the eastern Euro- production is the same as last year's and export Comparison with (%) pean harvest— outlets are growing, with shipments going to 000 tonnes 2008-09 last 4 years 2007-08 especially in Hun- Russia in particular and also to Asia. average gary and Poland— Jonathan 198 + 288 + 401 has been damaged Idared 640 + 127 + 8 by hail. Shampion 294 + 71 + 18 Market for pears very clear, Gloster 130 + 51 + 17 especially in the second part Lobo 150 + 50 - 9 of the season Red Delicious 701 + 19 + 7 A market Jonagold 713 + 10 + 5 strongly Granny Smith 303 + 1 - 2 In contrast, the situation is distinctly clearer on Gala 1 016 0 + 1 supplied by the pear market as a result of a major deficit for Golden 2 389 - 1 - 3 bicolour fruits the whole range—both summer, autumn and Fuji 185 - 3 + 35 winter fruits. The European season has started Elstar 451 - 7 - 2 The situation may under excellent conditions with no remaining Jonagored 207 - 12 + 2 well be difficult for 2007 pears or 'Packham's' from the southern Cripps Pink 125 - 13 + 52 bicolour apples, and hemisphere—as a result of the previous Braeburn 274 - 14 - 7 especially for European deficit. Trade in summer Source: Eurofel 'Gala', with pears has been very satis- e u rg factory, with a slight deficit pro- e m o duction now exceeding a mil- D in comparison with 2007 is g é lion tonnes. The 2008 har- R ('Guyot' - 3%, © vest is similar to that of previ- 'Williams' - 6%) and ous years but the increase in this promises a good domestic production in the transition to autumn northern European countries and then winter pears. (Germany and the United King- The market should be dom) is upsetting flows and reducing a little very clear in the second part more each year the exports from the other EU of the season as a result of the marked deficit exporting countries. In contrast, supplies of in 'Conference' in northern Europe (- 22% in 'Elstar' (- 7% in comparison with 2007) and comparison with 2007) and 'Abate Fetel' in Italy 'Braeburn' (- 14%) are smaller than they were last year when the crops were large, but the Pear — Estimated European crop figures are similar to previous averages. The by variety 'Cripps Pink' (- 13%), 'Fuji' (- 3%) and Comparison with (%) 'Jonagored' (- 12%) crops should also be 000 tonnes 2008-09 last 4 years smaller than they were in 2007. However, they 2007-08 average will be distinctly above the average for the last three years as production has increased (by Rocha 173 + 27 + 14 52%, 35% and 2% respectively), while the pro- Coscia-Ercollini 109 - 1 + 4 duction of other club varieties such as 'Kanzi', Guyot 102 - 3 - 6 'Junami', 'Rubens', 'Jazz', 'Honey Crunch', William BC 302 - 6 - 7 Abate Fetel 257 - 21 - 14 'Ariane', 'Cameo' Conférence 641 - 22 - 20 and 'Pinova' is still Pear Source: Eurofel increasing in many Estimated European crop countries. The red Comparison with (%) apple market should (- 21% in comparison with 2007), especially as these producers have developed strong export 000 tonnes 2008-09 last 4 years also be more com- 2007-08 average petitive this year in movements (to Russia and also to Asia and both Europe and South America) to sell the very large potential Total EU-27 2 161 - 14 - 16 Russia as a result of planted in recent years. Only the 'Rocha' har- of which EU-15 2 074 - 16 - 16 the return of the vest in Portugal will be large but it cannot make Portugal 177 + 25 + 11 eastern European up the deficit, while Portugal is also developing Greece 54 + 6 + 5 countries. In con- its capacity for export to destinations outside Spain 508 + 3 - 6 trast, the market Europe (South America, Canada and Russia). United Kingdom 25 - 14 - 15 should be fairly sat- Prices are also distinctly higher than in 2007. Italy 755 - 18 - 16 isfactory for 'Golden They should remain firm, especially as in the Germany 46 - 18 - 19 Delicious' even if it light of the deficit operators have already re- France 157 - 29 - 34 might suffer from served part of their production on a contract Netherlands 170 - 33 - 26 backlash from the basis. The deficit is particularly marked in Belgium 177 - 38 - 30 bicolour market as France and the Benelux countries of which NMS 87 + 67 + 13 the remaining stocks Poland 40 + 29 - 33 of the last harvest Cécilia Celeyrette, Infofruit Hungary 40 + 233 + 31 are very small and [email protected] Source: Eurofel
Content published by the Market News Service of CIRAD − All rights reserved No. 159 September 2008 5 Content published by the Market News Service of CIRAD − All rights reserved A report by Eric Imbert
After being exemplary in recent seasons, in particular thanks to the vigour of the US market, growth of the world avocado trade has been obliged to mark time in 2007-2008. Our market watch shows that the volumes traded internationally have fallen from some 650 000 t to 630 000 t. However, the decrease is not a cause for concern as it results from a shortage of supply. Serious production losses in Chile and then in Israel as a result of frosts strongly limited the quantities available during the winter season. This original situation has confirmed the strategic choices made by Mexican exporters in favour of the United States; they made up for the under-supplying of the latter market rather than the EU even though the euro has been strong. The European summer season has also been very interesting. In contrast with the winter season, supplies were large and showed the capacity of the EU market to take large volumes while maintaining a good economic level, probably as a result of accurate forecasting of volumes and the efforts made in promotion by Chilean and Peruvian professionals. This is a promising feature as the world area under avocado is still increasing rapidly.
Contents
p. 9 The European avocado market: a 2007-08 balance marked by a strong deficit from northern hemisphere production sources
p. 19 Avocado production in Chile: continued dynamism
p. 30 Statistics panorama: world, EU, USA, Japan p. 33 Producer country sheet: avocado in Israel p. 37 Producer country sheet: avocado in Peru p. 41 Producer country sheet: avocado in Spain p. 43 Cultivation of avocado p. 44 Avocado varieties p. 46 Avocado pests and diseases p. 47 Avocado post-harvest © Régis Domergue Content published by the Market News Service of CIRAD − All rights reserved No. 159 September 2008 7 Content published by the Market News Service of CIRAD − All rights reserved CLOSE-UP
The European avocado market A 2007-08 balance marked by a strong deficit from northern hemisphere production sources
as the breeze of dynamism that blew in It is true that these initiatives are Hthe EU avocado market in 2006-07 not at all on the same scale as dropped? This is what might be concluded from the promotion campaigns in the analysis of the volumes traded from September USA and the UK. The powerful 2007 to August 2008 (2007-08 winter season sales lever formed by ripe/ready- and 2008 summer season). to-eat fruits is still under-used on the continent for lack of involve- After reaching 235 000 t in 2006-07 for the very ment by distributors. However, first time, consumption appears to have de- these campaigns confirm the de- creased to around 215 000 t. The drop was termination of certain production particularly marked during the winter season, sources to invest to benefit from with volumes sold losing nearly 50 000 t and the substantial scope for devel- slipping beneath the 100 000-tonne mark. How- opment that still exists on most ever, analysis of the downward trend should European markets. It is important reassure operators as demand is not called into to remember once again that this question. type of operation has given ex- emplary results in the United Kingdom. A decade of operations to highlight avocado has resulted Promotion in Europe: in the doubling of consumption, 'Trying, but could do better' making the market the second- largest in the EU in terms of The sales promotion programmes set up in quantity. This groundwork has been Europe in 2006-07 after a long period of total continued in the current season inertia have continued. The SAAGA (South as household penetration of African Avocado Growers Association) renewed avocado is still less than 30% its campaign on the French market. Likewise, and this says much about the the campaign run by the AECA (the Spanish potential for further development. association for the promotion of sales of 'Hass') The synergy between South Af- has been renewed. Launched by a group of Spanish operators and South American firms exporting to Spain, the initiative is a particularly interesting one as it is the first generic, multi- origin programme in continental Europe.
Avocat - Evolution des importations des principaux Avocado - Import trends on the main markets marchés 350 2003-04 300 2004-05 2005-06 250 2006-07 2007-08 200
000 tonnes 150 100 50 0 USAUSA EU-25 UE-25 JaponJapan Sources:Sources national : douanes customs, nationales, Cirad Cirad Photos © Régis Domergue
Content published by the Market News Service of CIRAD − All rights reserved No. 159 September 2008 9 !NNONCE !VOCAT (ASS ANGLAISPDF
Content published by the Market News Service of CIRAD − All rights reserved CLOSE-UP
in the EU, Chilean shipments Avocat - Approvisionnement du marché européen Avocado - European market supply by season to the latter market de- par saison creased by about 10 000 t in 160 comparison with the preced- 140 Winter season ing season when the 40 000 t 120 shipped gained Chile the posi- 100 tion of second-largest winter 80 season supplier.
000 tonnes 000 60 Summer season Spanish exporters were unable to profit fully 40 from this very favourable context, as production 20 was not large enough either. The harvest to- 0 talled some 45 000 to 50 000 t, which probably 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 gave export volumes similar to the preceding year (about 35 000 to 40 000 t). After a period Sources:Sources Eurostat, : Eurostat, FruiTrop FruiTrop of expansion, the planted area has stabilised at nearly 9 500 ha. Firstly, the areas still available are limited in the Axarquia area where most rica and Chile also seems to be causing growth avocados are grown, and a fair proportion of dynamics to accelerate, with the operations farmers prefer mango as it is less demanding performed by the Comité de la Palta, the Chil- as regards water, easier to manage and has ean promotion body, being relayed for the third been profitable in recent years. In addition, the year running. spider mite known locally as 'acaro crista- lino' (Oligonychus perseae) has continued to damage the crop although pest Major stakeholders management has started hit by serious to give results. The pest production losses appeared in 2004 and during the winter has since colonised al- most all the orchards in season continental Spain. Some professionals say that it has It is clear that supply was caused a production loss of inadequate during the winter some 30% since it appeared, season as two of the main sup- the average fruit weight de- plier countries suffered drastic creased markedly and the trees decreases in production. Israeli were weakened, but not fatally. professionals were doubly hit as the frosty period at the end of Mexican exporters did not benefit January caused serious losses to a from the very open market either in crop that was in the downswing of spite of enormous production reserves alternate bearing. The volumes ex- totalling more than a million tonnes. ported thus fell by half—from 57 000 to Shipments to the EU totalled only 12 500 t, 27 000 t in comparison with the generous an increase of only 2 000 t in comparison with 2006-07 season. The decrease was particularly the preceding season. Exporters clearly fa- marked in 'Hass' as much of the crop remained voured the US market, as shipments during the to be harvested when the cold spell hit. Only period in question increased by 50 000 t in 1.2 million boxes of this variety were exported. comparison with the previous year. This is a
Frost seriously affected the Chil- ean harvest too. The northern Avocat - Evolution de l'approvisionnement d'été par Avocado - Evolution of the summer season supply part of Region V, the main pro- origine duction zone, was hit by three 50 waves of frost during summer South Africa 2007. Thus even though the 40 planted area had increased (see the article about Chile), Chilean 30 exports amounted to some Peru 116 000 t, about 50 000 000 tonnes 20 t less than in the 10 preceding sea- Kenya son. In spite of 0 a clear determi- 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 nation to strengthen the Sources:Sources Eurostat,: Eurostat, FruiTrop FruiTrop
country's position Photos © Régis Domergue
Content published by the Market News Service of CIRAD − All rights reserved No. 159 September 2008 11 CLOSE-UP
Content published by the Market News Service of CIRAD − All rights reserved 12 September 2008 No. 159 CLOSE-UP
Content published by the Market News Service of CIRAD − All rights reserved No. 159 September 2008 13 Content published by the Market News Service of CIRAD − All rights reserved CLOSE-UP
Continued dynamism during AvocatAvocado - Prix - Monthly moyen average mensuel price sur on lethe marché French françaismarket the summer season 2.5 Although the volumes changing hands clearly 2.0 marked time during the winter, trade statistics 1.5 for the 2008 summer season should reveal a new, marked increase. The figures are not yet
euro/kg 1.0 final but the total should approach 100 000 t, for 0.5 the first time ever equivalent to the volumes sold in the winter season! This performance 0.0 deserves praise, especially as the increase has OND JFMAMJ JAS been very rapid, with the volumes doubling since the beginning of the decade. 07/08 06/07 05/06 04/05 This progress results to a considerable extent SourceSource: :FruiTrop FruiTrop from shipments from Peru, which have in- creased tenfold in six seasons and should probably exceed 45 000 t in 2008. Production clear illustration of the strategic choices made should continue to grow in the years to come as by most Mexican exporters, for whom the EU is some 6 000 ha of 'Hass' plantations were re- just an occasional market. corded in 2007 according to Prohass—the
Outsiders doing very well
The greatest increase was seen in shipments from 'outsider' sources. Arrivals from the Dominican Re- public exceeded 3 000 t for the first time, an increase of about 1 000 t in comparison with the previous season.
The increase in Moroccan exports to Europe is even more spectacu- lar and seems to be less opportun- istic. After being almost unknown as an avocado shipper in 2006-07, this source exported more than 1 700 t to the EU in 2007-08, most of this being sold on the French © Régis Domergue market. A few operators are work- ing on the building up of an avocado export equivalent of a 60 000 t harvest in the end— chain with the EU market as the main outlet and the planted area is still increasing! It will (see box). therefore be understood that the Peruvian chain, practically a captive of the European market (the Chilean market opened in 2007 still takes only very moderate quantities), is impa- tiently awaiting the opening of the US frontier. AvocatAvocado - Prix - Average moyen price en Francein France et (euro/kg)volumes The negotiations for the recognition of all or part andcommercialisés volumes marketed dans in thel'UE EU of Peruvian production as free of fruitfly could 250 soon reach a conclusion and perhaps allow the 1.94 1.85 shipment of the first batches during the next 200 1.82 1.60 1.59 season. What welcome will await Peruvian avo- cado on the US market, as the export season in 150 Peru runs from April to August, the heart of the 1.48 1.41 California season? Reasonable optimism is 100 1.26 allowed as consumption is tending to increase
000 tonnes 000 1.20 considerably during this part of the year, but 50 volumesVolumes commercialisésmarketed (EU) (UE) competition with Mexico, whose exports are prixaverage moyen price (France) (France) strongly present at this time of the year, may 0 well be fierce. However, although Michoacán 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 exporters have clear advantages as regards Sources:Sources Eurostat,: Eurostat, FruiTrop FruiTrop proximity, the game is far from being lost by
Content published by the Market News Service of CIRAD − All rights reserved No. 159 September 2008 15 CLOSE-UP
Is Morocco the new outsider? fairly strong wind, can be a problem in some years. A few plantations in the Souss and in the Azemmour region com- plete Moroccan avocado production. Hitherto unknown on the international scene, the Moroccan avocado sector seems to be coming out into the open. Pre- Production is handled by a very small number of large op- viously marginal exports reached some 2 000 t during the erations and by a great number of small growers. The fruits 2007-08 season. The sector is still modest and its size diffi- are mainly sold locally and often eaten in the form of a milk- cult to estimate for lack of recent figures. Professionals con- shake. The varieties such as 'Bacon' and 'Zutano' that are sider that some 1 000 not particularly sought- ha yields 7 000 to after for export still form 8 000 t. They also agree a fair proportion of pro- that there has been duction and small fruits considerable recent grown locally or im- expansion. ported from Spain sell well. Most of the plantations on the north-western Two structures handle coastal strip of Morocco practically all exports, from between the south that consist mainly of of Rabat (Temara) and 'Hass'. The fruits are Tangiers. However, the sold mainly on the planted area is decreas- French market and a ing in the Rabat region few batches are shipped because of pressure to the UK. from building and the heart of the planted area Sector development is is tending to be between currently driven by a few Larache and Kenitra. rare specialists who are The mild Mediterranean investing significantly in climate with very rare the crop and should frosts is well–suited to the crop, as are the fairly sandy soils accelerate. First, the good results achieved during the last in the coastal area. Furthermore, water availability is fairly season will probably attract new producers. Second, Span- good. Average rainfall has decreased in recent years and is ish growers seem to be increasingly interested in Morocco now only 300 to 400 mm. However, groundwater is not as in order to achieve growth in a sector that is difficult to de- heavily exploited as in the south of the country and is still velop in the Malaga region, in particular as a result of the fairly plentiful and of good quality. The Chergui, a hot and growth of urban pressure and shortage of water.
their Peruvian counterparts whose pro- and steps are still in progress to obtain duction prices seem to be very reason- access to the Chinese, Japanese and able in spite of the cost of transport US markets. (high productivity, inexpensive labour, etc.). Moderate volumes from Kenya A 'normal' season for South Africa Kenyan exports were moderate, espe- cially when the market was very open. Sector professionals suffered from a At 43 000 t, supplies of South African series of problems. Serious spring drop fruits have remained within the usual followed by very wet weather limited the 35 000 to 45 000 t range. Although the quantity of exportable fruits. In addition, planted area is not increasing any more political problems paralysed business at and seems to have stabilised at 12 000 the beginning of the season. Finally, ha since 2002-03, its varietal composi- although transport times to Europe are tion is still changing to the benefit of better than they were in 2007, loading 'Hass'. The share of the latter variety in times in Mombasa were often incompati- total exports has increased from 45% ble with what fresh fruits can stand. at the beginning of the decade to some Ironically, this deterioration is linked with 50% in recent seasons. New cultivars the setting up of a new system of com- have appeared recently, including puterised container management at the 'Maluma Hass'®, a variety that is more port that should have corrected past productive than traditional 'Hass' and weaknesses. However, real efforts have about a month earlier. The volumes been made to improve the quality of earmarked for export to the EU should fruits from small growers, especially not increase in the medium term. The under the aegis of USAID. Control of domestic market is tending to develop anthracnose has been strengthened and
© Régis Domergue
Content published by the Market News Service of CIRAD − All rights reserved 16 September 2008 No. 159 CLOSE-UP
several small oil mills have been installed to make used of category II fruits.
European markets with varied dynamics
Not all EU countries were affected to the same degree by the decrease in supply during the winter season. Analysis of ap- parent consumption from June 2007 to May 2008 shows that two countries suf- fered a considerable decrease. Not sur- prisingly, the fall affected France first of all. It is true that it is the largest consumer market in the EU but it is also very com- petitive and distribution still operates on Photos © Régis Domergue a spot basis to a considerable ex- tent. The sharp decrease in the vol- since September 2007 probably affected export umes shipped to the United King- destination allocations by certain exporters. dom is more surprising. This mar- Arrivals also decreased strongly in Germany ket is closely managed at the pro- where avocado is still little distributed and motion level and retailers have where the price factor is of great importance. In understood the importance of contrast, Scandinavia was little affected by the 'ripe' fruits and had displayed the decrease. Swedish imports even continued to best growth dynamics in preced- increase, with consumption approaching ing seasons. However, the sub- 10 000 t. Denmark and Finland are still the sec- stantial fall in sterling against the euro ond and third largest markets in the zone, with
Content published by the Market News Service of CIRAD − All rights reserved No. 159 September 2008 17 CLOSE-UP
volumes stables at 6 500 t per box at the import stage in Forecasts for the and 1 000 t respectively. France at the end of Decem- 2008-09 winter season: These countries are still ber. An exceptional EUR12.00 supply still moderate choice targets. 'Hass' is (i.e. EUR3.00 per kg) was even known there, per capita in- attained at the end of April for come is high and the poten- the last batches of Spanish Supply during the winter season should be a little larger than in 2007-08 but will tial increase in consumption 'Hass'. In spite of a difficult start remain moderate. The Chilean and Is- is considerable. Chile is to to the season, the balance was raeli harvests will still be marked by the launch a promotion cam- positive overall for the green frosts of summer 2007 and winter 2008 paign in Denmark and Swe- varieties, with prices exceeding respectively. Chilean production should den in 2008. Growth also EUR8.00 per box when the be some 5 to 10% less than the already continued in Poland where shortage was at its most severe limited volume recorded last year, with imports exceeded the mod- in April. the drought that has affected the La est 2 000-t mark for the first Ligua, Cabildo and Petorca valleys time. added to the effects of the frost men- tioned above. Thus, in spite of allocation Good price behaviour of fruits that should favour the EU mar- in the summer season ket as the euro is still strong and where Historically firm deserves reflection a new promotion campaign is scheduled quay prices (in the UK, Spain, Denmark and Swe- den), arrivals should only be similar to Good price behaviour in the The serious under-supply those of 2007-08, that is to say about 6 summer was also a positive observed during the winter to 7 million boxes. Production in Israel feature, even though no par- should be slightly smaller than average season in both green varie- ticular record was broken. In in spite of a marked increase in com- ties and 'Hass' resulted in spite of the record supply men- parison with last year. Exports should excellent prices. Calculated tioned above, the average price therefore total between 8.0 and 8.5 mil- by our market news service for the season should be satis- lion boxes. Volumes should return to an for the French market, the factory in spite of two fairly diffi- average level in 2009-10. The increase average season's price for cult periods in June and end of in production may be delayed for a few all varieties was much higher August-September. First, better years as some parts of new orchards than both last year and the anticipatory management of have been destroyed by frost and avail- average. However, the sea- volumes made it possible to ability of planting material is limited. The son did not start well. Supply forecast periods of substantial vast development programme still was substantial until mid- supply and to run promotion planned targets production of about November as the 'Ettinger' operations. Second, the 130 000 t towards 2015. Only the Span- crop in Israel was a gener- sources delivering during the ish harvest should recover to slightly ous one and Chilean exports summer are also those that above the average of some 55 000 t, concentrated shipments on invest most heavily in promo- with an increase of about 10 000 t in the EU. However, as under- tion. Is this a coincidence or an comparison with the last season. supply increased, the trend example to mull over? reversed and the price of What complementary volume will size 18 'Hass' climbed to Eric Imbert, Cirad be shipped from Mexico? The more than EUR8.00 [email protected] Spanish harvest could be a little more generous than it was last Photos © Régis Domergue year. Although produc- tion from the first flow- Avocado — European market supply ering ('flor loca') has Main origins been very limited, that tonnes 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 of the subsequent flow- erings ('aventajada' Winter season 117 866 107 723 120 892 96 480 110 893 126 794 96 008 145 808 103 782 and 'normal') may turn out to be a little larger. Israel 44 548 38 841 44 333 26 529 25 299 50 481 26 538 55 931 25 811 Mexican exporters are Chile 9 35 528 2 190 4 046 11 532 17 801 40 379 25 671 concerned about the recession in the United Mexico 14 479 13 002 10 139 21 925 18 705 16 516 20 769 10 289 12 500 States, which is hitting Spain* 58 000 55 500 65 300 45 000 62 000 47 000 30 000 37 000 35 000 Hispanics in particular, who eat large amounts Dominican Rep. 830 345 591 195 842 1 264 901 2 209 3 100 of avocado. If the ef- fects are severe, they Morocco - 1 1 641 - - - - 1 700 may become more Summer season** 49 799 57 357 52 190 67 498 60 698 80 509 80 083 85 813 99 000 interested in the Euro- pean market in 2008- South Africa 38 205 38 908 36 266 36 404 29 872 46 955 35 934 38 067 43 000 2009. Peru 1 299 2 849 4 401 11 266 14 590 18 096 30 508 35 857 46 000
Kenya 10 294 15 600 11 523 19 828 16 236 15 458 13 641 11 889 10 000
* except volumes for the domestic market / ** Estimates for 2007-08 / Sources: Eurostat, FruiTrop
Content published by the Market News Service of CIRAD − All rights reserved 18 September 2008 No. 159 CLOSE-UP
Avocado production in Chile
Continued dynamism Photos © Régis Domergue
he 2008- 09 Chilean harvest Tmay well be as small as the previ- ous one. However, errors of interpretation should be avoided. Two seasons in a row with small crops is the result of circumstances alone—three frost spells in summer 2007. Analysis of the 2007 agricultural census (http:// www.censoagropecuario.cl) shows that the planted area is still increasing—and much more strongly than expected. The study shows that the total area under avocado is slightly greater than 39 000 ha. In Region V, the main production zone in Chile (Aconcagua, Petorca and Ligua valleys), the area increased from 15 000 to 22 000 ha between 2002 and 2007. Likewise, the area increased considerably in the other main production regions (+ 2 800 ha from 2005 to 2007 in Region IV and + 1 300 ha between 2004 and 2007 in the Metropolitan Region).
Some 9 000 ha of orchards are not yet har- vested, including nearly 4 000 ha planted in 2007. It would seem that the areas managed by smaller and medium-sized growers have stabilised while the main producers are still planting on a fairly massive scale. Thus, in contrast with what might be imagined after the strong decrease in profitability in recent years, production is not yet stabilising. With an aver- age yield of 8 to 10 t/ha, the harvest should exceed the 300 000-t mark during the first part of the next decade. The largest so far was some 220 000 t in the 2006-07 season. Finding a market for these large additional quantities is a real challenge. However, professionals seem fairly confident as they possess the resources to meet this—the existing organisation and dynamics.
A development model still based on exports
The strategic approach developed by profes- sionals clearly includes exports. The domestic market probably has room from growth but it is fairly limited. Consumption has increased strongly in recent years thanks to a decrease in retail prices and promotion operations run by the Comité de Palta. However, at nearly
Content published by the Market News Service of CIRAD − All rights reserved No. 159 September 2008 19 maerskline.com
CREATING We believe that creating opportunities is the key to success - in your business and in ours. OPPORTUNITIES With our complete range of cold chain solutions, our dedicated reefer specialists take care of your IN GLOBAL perishables from pick-up to delivery. And with our truly global reach, we ensure your COMMERCE products arrive in the best possible condition – anywhere in the world.
Content published by the Market News Service of CIRAD − All rights reserved CLOSE-UP
able increase in Mexican ChileChili - AvocadoAvocat - Production- Production shipments: exports have 220* increased threefold in three seasons, reach- 160 155* 130140140 140 ing nearly 220 000 t in 99 98 110 2007-08. Plantation 82 figures show that 58 60 000 tonnes 000 42 50 55 Mexican growers probably do not intend to stop there. 92/93 94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 The planted area is still increasing, with 117 000 ha in 2007 according Source:Source :ODEPA OPEDA - -*estimate *estimation to USDA in comparison with 100 000 five years before. It is true that a proportion of the crop is for the still buoyant domestic market. However, 75 000 t per year (i.e. some 4.4 kg per capita), the parallel increase in orchards declared free it is high, even for a producer country. It is true of the large avocado seed weevil and the small than consumption approaches or exceeds avocado seed weevils, the only orchards ap- 10 kg per person per year in the main Central proved by USDA, shows that this is not the American producer countries such as Mexico only objective. Slightly more than 38 000 ha of and the Dominican Republic, but the climate is orchards were registered in 2007-08 more favourable for avocado consumption and in comparison with less than the fruit is much more strongly 10 000 ha at the beginning of anchored in the diet. the decade. A further increase should be seen in 2008-09 with the recent addition of more provinces in Jalisco The US market is state to the 14 already authorised in Michoacán. the main axis of development in spite of Mexican competition East Coast consumer The comparative optimism of Chilean profes- deserts targeted sionals with regard to the future results mainly from their analysis of the potential of the US There are no doubts with regard to Mexico's market. This viewpoint might seem surprising dynamism. However, Chilean professionals as the increase in the strength of competition also have advantages—their competitiveness from Mexico, discussed at length in FruiTrop, on the East Coast. These markets are choice is real. The very favourable situation of Mi- targets for two reasons. First, they are avocado choacán operators in 2006-07 and 2007-08 as consumption deserts in spite of their large a result of frost in California and then in Chile is population. For example, the north-east is not the only factor to account for the consider- home to nearly 18% of the US population but
‘Hass’ avocado — Chilean and Mexican competitiveness compared
Mexico Chile
Cost at production (USD/ha) irrigated 5 400-5 900 6 600 dry farming 4 600-4 900 Average yield 10 t/ha 13 t/ha* Average price per kg (USD cents/kg) 46-59 51 Freight to New York type by road by sea cost (USD per 11.14 kg lug) 3.00-3.20 4.00-4.50 Customs dues duty-free quota of some 50 000 t duty free approx. 10 cents/kg for volumes over quota ** * approx. 8 t/ha on average in the country, but 13 t/ha on average for orchards with a high technical level Photos © Régis Domergue ** 2008 figures. Total liberalisation in 2015 after a gradual decrease
Content published by the Market News Service of CIRAD − All rights reserved No. 159 September 2008 21 GEORGES HELFER S.A. GEORGES HELFER S.A. GEORGES HELFER S.A. (France) (Site Pays-Bas) (Suisse) 1, rue des Tropiques ENT.133 Transportweg 23 C Chemin de Fontenailles 94538 RUNGIS CEDEX (FRANCE) 2676 LM MAASDIJK CH-1196 GLAND - SUISSE Tél.: +33 1 45 12 36 50 Tél.: 003 11 74 67 11 80 Tél.: +41 22 999 99 99 Fax: +33 1 45 60 48 52 Fax: 003 11 74 67 11 88 Fax: +41 22 999 99 98
Content published by the Market News Service of CIRAD − All rights reserved www.helfergroup.com CLOSE-UP
moderate for their Chilean counterparts who Chili - Avocat - Exportations par destination Chile - Avocado - Exports by destination ship fruits by sea. 150 It is true that Mexico benefits from other non- Europe Europe economic parameters. Its season is longer, 100 USA OthersAutres thanks to four flowerings. Arrivals by road avoid the massive quantities available when a full 000 tonnes 50 shipload of avocados is unloaded. However, Chile is more equal to Mexico on the east coast 0 than in the other parts of the USA. 92/93 94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 Factors that could further reduce the difference SourceSource: :ODEPA ODEPA are at the heart of discussions in Chile today. The target is an increase in the average yield from 8 to 13 t per ha. Replacing single-run takes only 11% of volumes. According to an- picking by more selective harvesting according other, more recent (spring 2008) study, only to size is one of the ways of achieving consid- slightly less than half of the population had erable gain, as is irrigation management ac- purchased avocado for consumption at home cording to soil type. in comparison with nearly 80% on the west coast. These markets are also potentially more profit- able than those of the west Promotion coast as prices are markedly advantages higher (+ USD2.40 per lug in are in position 2006, + USD4.00 in 2007 and + USD5.50 in the first half of So the potential is there and 2008). Finally, the 'source' the marketing tools are lined aspect is probably less impor- up. The Hass Avocado Board tant than in the producer founded jointly by Californian, states in the west where there Mexican, Chilean, New Zea- is a large Mexican population. land and Dominican produc- ers in 2002, conducts opera- tions to develop demand and coordinated management of The difference in cost the market. As an example, price between Chile this impressive facility makes and Mexico is more it possible to estimate weekly limited on the east market supply in real time. coast than on the © Régis Domergue west coast This joint procedure has many advantages. First, avocado is Production costs in orchards with a good tech- promoted all the year round with no breaks. nical level are fairly similar in Chile and Mexico. Second, as unity is strength, the budget result- However, Chilean exporters must pay customs ing from a contribution of USD0.25 for every dues on most of their goods (the duty-free box sold is considerable (USD25 million in quota is too small) while their Mexican counter- 2005-06). It is widely used for the promotion of parts are exempted. This is not the most impor- avocado in radio and TV campaigns and ge- tant factor as a progressive neric marketing or specific operations for the decrease is under way, various participating production sources. Thus, with total liberalisation the Chilean Avocado Importers Association, planned for 2015. It the promotion arm for Chilean avocado in the is transport costs that inevitably give Avocado — United States Mexican exporters Consumption from January to July an advantage, but Comparison Market Population Population less so for shipments to share share (millions) the east coast of the USA. 2007-06 2008-07 by region by region While Mexican exporters North-East - 10% + 15% 11% 54.6 18% suffer a very strong increase in road freight costs when California - 15% + 5% 38% 36.6 12% they ship avocados to the Mid-South - 16% + 8% 4% 36.1 12% east coast rather than Cali- Total - 16% + 7% 100% 303.0 100% fornia and even more so for Texas, the increase is only South-East - 24% - 3% 5% 39.7 13% Sources: HAB - US census
Content published by the Market News Service of CIRAD − All rights reserved No. 159 September 2008 23 Votre spécialiste Avocat depuis 20 ans....
COMEXA 5, Bld du Delta Zone Eurodelta 94658 Rungis Cedex Tel : +33(0)1 46 86 71 77 Fax: +33(0)1 46 86 80 43 Mail : [email protected]
Leader en Afrique du Sud, dans toutes les variétés et la production issue de l'Agriculture Biologique. Présent toute l'année, pour vous servir au quotidien dans les origines Pérou, Mexique, Chili, . . . . Une structure uniquement dédiée au Mûr à point, Contentavec published uneby the Market technologie News Service of CIRAD − All rights unique reserved en France. CLOSE-UP
US market, should strengthen promo- tion on the east coast. This should ChiliChile - Avocat- Avocado - Exportations - Exports correct the ignorance about Chilean 166 avocado in the USA. A recent study 138 showed that although Californian and 108 118 Mexican avocados are known by 86 90 about 60% and 40% of the population 000 tonnes 48 55 59 respectively, those from Chile are 32 only known by 25%—less than Flor- 15 ida avocado whose production totals only some 10 000 t. 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08
SourceSource: : ODEPAODEPA
A risky gamble? the environment could also have a negative It remains to be seen whether the receptive- effect on demand for imported avocado. A re- ness of the market equals that of the west cent study commissioned by the California coast. This question is justified as a major dif- Avocado Commission shows that 58% of buy- ference between these two parts of the country ers feel that it is important to favour avocados is the size of the Hispanic population. This is grown in the United States. This feature was about 30% of the population in California in immediately incorporated in the promotion comparison with 10% campaign run by Cali- on the east coast. This fornian professionals, minority buys very who highlighted fruit large quantities of avo- that were 'hand grown cado, accounting to a in California' and pre- considerable degree sented in TV spots by for the rocketing avo- growers and their fami- cado sales in the USA. lies in the good and Another major differ- generous Californian ence is the hard win- sunshine. Generic pro- ters in the east as motion, yes, but well these are less favour- ordered charity… able for the consump- tion of salad type pro- duce. A recent survey shows that avocado is Large potential clearly a fruit associ- ated with summer for development weather. in Argentina
However, the latest The Argentinian market consumption figures also forms part of this published by the Hass strategy. Consumption Avocado Board are is low in a country with fairly reassuring as a population of 40 mil- regards the dynamics lion. In addition, local of the market on the northern east coast. The production is small at some 3 000 t—mainly in decrease in the volumes marketed in the first Tucuman province in the north-east where it is half of 2007 in comparison with the first half of harvested during the Chilean counter-season. 2006 is less marked than the average for Exports are still moderate at some 1 300 t in Chile - Avocado - Outlets the other regions and the increase in 2007) but display dynamic growth. Domestic the first half of 2008 was stronger. mar ket The performance has been even distinctly better than in California. 25% Europe is not forgotten of course
Fresh A new threat for Development on the EU market is also a prior- exports imported avocados? ity for Chilean professionals. In three seasons, 75% this source has done more than come out in to The 'eat local' movement, based as the open, becoming one of the three main sup- in Europe on a vague and often false pliers of the EU during the winter season. Joint Source: Comité de la palta 2006 vision of the product in terms of food second largest supplier with Spain in 2006-07, safety, organoleptic qualities and impact on Chile descended to third position in the last
Content published by the Market News Service of CIRAD − All rights reserved No. 159 September 2008 25 CLOSE-UP
Content published by the Market News Service of CIRAD − All rights reserved 26 September 2008 No. 159 CLOSE-UP
season for reasons of frost. comes out in first place. Scandinavia Exporters certainly do not (especially Norway), Spain and the Nether- want to stay there. The idea lands also have considerable potential and is to make the addressing of good growth dynamics. In fact, in 2008-09, markets combining develop- Chilean professionals are to continue the op- ment potential and outlet se- erations run in the UK since 2005 and in Spain
Photos © Régis Domergue curity a priority, for example since 2006. Sweden and Denmark have just by means of supply contracts been added to the list. between large retail chains and importers. The latter point is of capital importance when trans- France, a spot market and very competitive, is port time of more than three weeks exposes not included in spite of its leading position in goods to the effects of market swings. terms of volumes sold. However, consumption is still distinctly smaller than in the USA even in years of plentiful supply and the tendency of the market to take large extra volumes leads What markets to go for? to considering that a very significant mar- gin remains. Although analysis of apparent consumption (imports + production – exports) is approximate for reasons of weaknesses in the identification of trans-frontier flows between EU states, it What position does give some interesting informa- remains for tion about the growth potential of green varieties the various European markets. in the face of When GDP (the average price of the avalanche avocado is high), the margin for increased consumption and the of 'Hass'? degree of knowledge of 'Hass' are used as population targeting The foreseeable criteria, the United Kingdom continued increase in
Avocado — European Union — Estimated apparent consumption
Estimate consumption Variation over Population Volume per person GNP - PPS*** in 2007-08* 5 years in millions (g) (index) in tonnes (2006-08/2001-03) EU-27 203 774 495 412 100 EU-15 199 200 391 509 + 24% France 71 952 63 1 135 + 7% 113 United Kingdom 38 549 61 634 + 74% 119 Scandinavia 20 655 25 843 + 70% 134 Sweden 9 652 9 1 061 + 69% 120 Denmark 6 556 5 1 214 + 71% 127 Norway** 3 498 5 744 + 89% 187 Finland 949 5 179 + 24% 116 Spain 20 381 45 458 nd 102 Germany 14 392 82 175 + 19% 114 Netherlands 12 781 16 779 + 78% 132 Portugal 4 521 11 427 + 23% 74 Italy 3 345 59 57 + 31% 104 Belgium 2 316 11 218 - 14% 123 Austria 1 906 8 230 + 83% 129 Ireland 1 819 4 423 + 120% 143 Greece 1 800 11 161 nd 97 EU NMS 4 574 102 45 + 414% 54 Poland 2 157 38 57 - 53 Baltic states 682 7 97 + 80% 60 Czech Rep. 664 10 64 + 202% 79 Slovakia 252 5 47 - 64 Hungary 245 10 24 + 980% 65 Slovenia 238 2 119 + 52% 89 Romania 231 22 11 + 473% 38 Bulgaria 105 8 14 + 327% 37 Luxembourg 190 1 380 + 7% 279 *June 2007 to May2008 : import – export + production / **non EU / ***purchasing power standard / Sources: Eurostat, FAO, professional sources
Content published by the Market News Service of CIRAD − All rights reserved No. 159 September 2008 27 CLOSE-UP
enormous margins for growth. Chile — Avocado — Harvest calendar But they undoubtedly require J F M A M J J A S O N D time and costly investment in promotion. Chilenas
Negra de la Cruz
Fuerte Joint promotion Hass required
Esther Thus the groundwork for market growth should not be carried out Chilean avocado sales in the EU risks causing by Chile alone, as it is in the interest of all sup- fairly deep-seated changes in market structure, pliers of the EU market. Countries other than as the driving force behind this ascension will Chile—such as Peru, Mexico and Israel— not only be increased consumption but also the display strong planting dynamics. It is clear that winning of market shares by 'Hass' rather than outlets must be broadened to maintain decent green varieties. British retailing is a perfect returns for growers. Formulas for making the example of this as it has switched al- market grow are extremely well known most entirely to 'Hass'. In a more (promotion, ready-to-eat) and their results general manner, it should be re- in the United Sates and, closer to home, membered that the share of the United Kingdom give solid assur- 'Hass' in all the avocado sold on ance as to their effectiveness. It the EU market has increased by remains for the sector 10% in two seasons, ap- stakeholders to combine proaching 65% in 2007- to find funding (here 08. This is of course a again, the tax on each capital question for box sold has proved its sources such as Spain worth) to set up the and Israel that ship European equiva- green varieties during lent of a Hass the Chilean 'Hass' Avocado Board marketing period. to handle op- Green varieties are erations and strongly anchored in © Régis Domergue work with retail- countries like France ers. The Spanish as specific market seg- sector has led the way coura- ments have been set up. geously by collaborating with Peru However, market growth for and Chile to promote 'Hass' in Spain (a these varieties should be sought more in Ger- campaign by companies selling avocado). It is many and eastern Europe where retailers seek an example to be followed avocados at attractive prices in order to de- velop or build up their markets. Here again, Eric Imbert, Cirad apparent consumption data show that there are [email protected]
Chile — Avocado — Sea freight Main shipping lines Shipping Customs Market Observations Port of departure Port of arrival time tariffs USA Valparaiso West coast: 12 to 17 days the bulk of 45 000 t tariff Los Angeles US imports free, circa Long Beach EUR350 per San Diego tonne, Florida: Miami 10 to 12 days limited quantities degressive until full liberalisation East coast: 15 to 22 days limited quantities in 2015 New York Philadelphia Japan Tokyo 25 days EU Valparaiso Dunkirk 21 days tariff free since Rotterdam 20 days 01/01/2003 Algeciras 17 days Felixstowe 22 days
Content published by the Market News Service of CIRAD − All rights reserved 28 September 2008 No. 159 Content published by the Market News Service of CIRAD − All rights reserved DOSSIER DU MOIS CLOSE-UP
Avocado — United States imports — July to June period
tonnes 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 Total, incl. 29 549 64 758 55 507 79 944 96 058 126 679 138 928 206 314 231 715 300 375 319 500
Mexico 7 879 10 579 13 067 11 941 24 450 29 612 42 947 73 943 132 040 166 001 217 000
Chile 15 136 48 168 28 903 53 986 57 890 83 877 78 680 120 890 85 200 117 928 85 000 Dom. Rep. 5 717 5 399 10 162 9 550 11 193 10 965 17 067 11 254 14 334 16 434 15 000 Bahamas 457 193 180 200 263 236 118 109 0 0 0 New Zealand 325 419 3 147 4 263 2 259 1 882 116 119 57 0 2 500 Others 36 0 48 4 3 107 0 0 85 12 0 Source: US customs, code 080440
Avocado — Japanese imports
tonnes 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Total, incl. 6 455 6 040 8 605 7 491 14 070 10 821 13 648 23 973 28 991 28 150 29 032 24 931
Mexico 3 846 4 416 8 167 7 373 14 035 10 577 13 456 23 405 28 294 26 630 26 553 23 585
Chile 0 0 0 0 0 14 5 176 386 410 1 476 544
United States 2 609 1 624 437 118 36 180 9 78 3 227 800 24
New Zealand 0 0 0 0 0 50 179 313 306 882 203 776
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 3
Source: Japanese customs, code 080440010
Content published by the Market News Service of CIRAD − All rights reserved 30 September 2008 No. 159 DOSSIER DU MOIS CLOSE-UPCLOSE-UP
Avocado Avocado Avocado World production World exports World imports
2007-2008* 000 tonnes 2007-2008 000 tonnes 2007-2008 000 tonnes World 3 180 World 630 World 630 Mexico 1 100 Mexico 270 United States 319 Indonesia 250 Chile 116 EU-25, incl. 200 Colombia 200 Israel 27 France 93 Brazil 165 South Africa 43 Netherlands 65 United States 160 Peru 46 United Kingdom 40 Chile 156 Spain 30 Spain 30 Peru 121 Kenya 10 Japan 25 Dominican Rep. 115 Dominican Rep. 18 Canada 19 China 96 New Zealand 15 Colombia 17 South Africa 90 Guatemala 5 Salvador 16 Kenya 70 United States 4 Australia 11 D. R. Congo 62 Ecuador 5 Honduras 9 Venezuela 59 Venezuela 2 Costa Rica 6 Ethiopia 55 Argentina 2 Guatemala 5 * estimates / Sources: FAO; EU, USA, Japanese customs; Cirad
Avocat - CalendrierAvocado d'approvisionnement - Supply calendar en % des inimportations percent of annual annuelles imports 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% JapanJapon USA 2% EUUE 0% JFMAMJ JASOND Sources:Source USA,: douanes EU and USA, Japanese UE et Japon customs - moyenne - 2005-06 2005-06 average
Avocado — European Union to 25 — Imports and production tonnes 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 Total, of which 168 797 166 897 174 965 169 288 171 343 208 682 187 979 235 465 218 687
European imports 110 797 111 397 109 665 124 288 109 343 161 682 157 979 198 465 173 687
Israel 44 548 38 841 44 333 26 529 25 299 50 481 26 538 55 931 25 811 Chile 9 35 528 2 190 4 046 11 532 19 248 40 379 25 671 South Africa 38 205 38 908 36 266 39 116 30 639 43 422 39 646 38 067 45 000 Peru 1 299 2 849 4 401 11 010 12 147 19 792 30 818 35 857 46 000 Kenya 10 294 15 600 11 523 19 915 15 176 15 428 14 921 11 889 10 000 Mexico 14 479 13 002 10 139 21 925 18 705 16 516 20 769 10 289 12 500 Dominican Rep. 830 345 591 195 842 1 264 901 2 209 3 100 Argentina 58 326 440 537 615 1 108 1 652 1 709 1 400 Brazil 156 569 661 715 979 931 1 442 1 782 1 850 Swaziland 104 112 235 380 317 350 395 178 100 United States 304 354 70 61 3 62 1 064 53 300 Zimbabwe 137 285 207 739 404 599 260 22 150 Dominica 71 43 134 116 43 20 18 3 5 Morocco 0 1 1 641 0 - - - 1 700 Others 302 129 135 219 128 176 308 97 100
European production*
Spain 58 000 55 500 65 300 45 000 62 000 47 000 30 000 37 000 45 000 *Not mentioned: Portugal (approx. 2 000 t per year in the Algarve and 1 000 t per year in Madeira), Greece (approx. 1 500 t per year in Crete) and France (approx. 100 t per year in Corsica and the West Indies) / Source: Eurostat, code 080440
Content published by the Market News Service of CIRAD − All rights reserved No. 159 September 2008 31 L’agriculture au naturel signé R
A G R E X C O
Content published by the Market News Service of CIRAD − All rights reserved CLOSE-UP
A pioneer and major origin in the Mediterranean area, Israel is Producer country sheet among the ten to twelve leading producer countries with production of some 90 000 tonnes—increasing. Export- oriented, it covers a significant proportion of EU market Avocado supplies during the winter season and has contributed substan- tially to making avocado known. Still concentrated in spite of the end of the state monopoly, the export sector historically in Israel aimed at the French market is diversifying its outlets (United Kingdom, Eastern Europe, etc.). The domestic market plays a major role.
IsraelIsraël - Avocado - Avocat - - Production Production 90 92 Production zones 83 78 79 77 About 70 % of avocado produc- tion is in a coastal strip barely 64 63 15 km wide running from the 000 tonnes 58 north of Tel Aviv to the Lebanese frontier. The plantations north of 50 49 48 49 46 45 47 the town of Acre in western Galilee are along the most reputed. About 20% of the area 92/93 94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 under avocado is in Upper and Lower Sources:Sources :USDA, USDA, Cirad Cirad Galilee and the Volumes Jordan Valley and the remaining 10% is The crop developed rapidly from the end of the 1950s onwards, with south and east of Tel plantations culminating at 11 000 ha during the 1980s. The area then Aviv. Nearly three- halved after a succession of difficult seasons and the setting up of an quarters of production economic policy that was less favourable for the primary sector. Avocado is from kibbutzim, co- has been grown on about 4 500 ha since the end of the 1990s and produc- operative farming tion is about 80 000 to 90 000 t in normal seasons (the Hamsin, a hot wind organisations. The that sometimes blows from April to June, can cause a strong decrease in country has about ten production). Frost in January 2008 caused a serious but temporary de- packing stations and crease in the tonnage harvested in 2007-08. The area under avocado has two of these alone increased again since the mid-2000s (by about 100 ha per year) and yields pack about half of have also increased. Production will therefore continue to increase but the production. Sanitary 2008 frost will slow short-term dynamics. Nevertheless, the harvest should problems are limited soon reach 100 000 t (with a target of 150 000 t in 2020). The Volcani (no Phytophthora), in Center provides considerable research support. particular thanks to the climate. Rational farming is therefore very widespread and average yields are high. The availability of irrigation water is one of the main limiting factors and water forms a large proportion of production IsraelIsraël - -Avocado Avocat -- GammeRange of variétale varieties costs.
Pinkerton Fuerte Ardith 12 % 12 % 7%
Reed Production calendar and varieties Hass 8% 28% Nabal The season is comparatively long thanks to a broad range of varieties. This has changed consid- 2% Ettinger erably. 'Ettinger', a locally bred cultivar, and 'Hass' have developed strongly at the expense of Others 27% 'Nabal' and 'Fuerte', although the latter is well represented. Emphasis is currently laid on 'Hass' and 4% this forms more than Israel — Avocado — Production calendar 60% of new plantings (it Source: USDA O N D J F M A M J J A S should cover 35% of the total area under Ettinger avocado in 2010). Among green varieties, Fuerte 'Pinkerton', and 'Ardith' and 'Arad' to a lesser Hass degree, should develop at the expense of Pinkerton 'Ettinger'. Nabal Ardith Reed
Content published by the Market News Service of CIRAD − All rights reserved No. 159 September 2008 33 KEDEM REMIUM FRUIT AND VEGETABLES P GROWN IN ISRAEL
PINKERTON Our premium Avocado
• Longer shelf life • Beautiful green skin figure • Outstanding internal quality
Kedem's superior Avocado are grown in the Upper Galilee, where climate conditions are ideal: caressing sun, excellent rich soil and fresh river water. This combination produce healthy trees that yield the highest quality Avocado. Our Avocado growers, equipped with updated know-how based on research, are cultivating the Avocado orchards using the most modern agricultural growing techniques.
Kedem Hadarim offers to its customers a reliable and steady supply of a wide range of premium fruit and vegetables: Avocado, Capsicums, Citrus (all the varieties of top quality “jaffa” citrus), Plums, Peach, Nectarines, Pomegranates, Herbs, Grapes, Dates, Exotics - Persimmon / Sharon Fruit, Mango, Kiwi, Litchi, Kumquat, Limquat, Lime, Carrots, Potatoes, Melons and more.
CONTACTS: SALES DIRECTOR: Mr. Mike Stout 12 Rothchild st. Nes Ziona 70400 Israel Tel: +972-8-9401680 Fax: +972-8-9401521 e-Mail: [email protected] Content published by the Market News Service of CIRAD − All rights reserved CLOSE-UP
Outlets
The sector is export-oriented. However, the domestic market plays a key role as it is very profitable even for produce that Total exports does not meet export quality standards. Today, the some 6.4 million people who live in Israel purchase about 35 to Exports follow the markedly cyclic production and have 40% of the quantity grown. Per capita consumption is increased very slightly since the 1980s recession. therefore among the highest in the world, oscillating between Quantities currently vary from 45 000 to 60 000 t in 3 and 5 kg per year according to production volume and seasons with normal weather conditions. Practically all prices. Large fruits the fruits exported are shipped to the European Union, are preferred (sizes Israel - Avocado - Outlets where Israel has contributed strongly to making 10 to 14) especially avocado known and developing consumption. France is Fresh for 'Ettinger'. The still the main outlet but its market share has decreased Processed quantities available exports to approximately 40% today. For a number of seasons, 1% for processing are exporters have used a diversification strategy based on 59% therefore very shipments targeting the expectations of each market as limited. The oil mill regards size and variety. Shipments of 'Hass' to the has closed and the United Kingdom have thus increased strongly. Germany pulp factory is and Scandinavia are still key markets for green varie- operating at low ties. Shipments to the eastern EU (especially to Poland) Domestic output. and the former Soviet bloc (Russia and the Ukraine), mar ket have development strongly in recent seasons and are 40% now significant. The Agrexco company was the only sector player for a long time and is still the main exporter but today shares the market with the compa- Sourc es : USDA , CIRA D nies Mehadrin, Kedem-Hadarim and Bachan- Development.
IsraëlIsrael - Avocat - Avocado - Exportations - Exports by par destination destination 25
20
15
10 000 tonnes © Régis Domergue 5 Israël - Avocat - Exportations Israel - Avocado - Exports 57 0 53 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 49 46 46 France GermanyAllemagne UK 44 ScandinavieScandinavia OthersAutres 39 SourcesSources: :Cirad, Cirad, Eurostat Eurostat 36 35 31 29 000 tonnes 28 26 27 26 27
92/93 94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07
SourcesSources: : USDA,USDA, CiradCirad Logistics
The goods are carried in refrigerated lorries to the port of Asdhod (and sometimes Haifa). Most sea transport is handled by two modern vessels belonging to the Israel — Avocado — Sea freight Agrexco company and specially designed for the Main shipping lines requirements of fresh Markets Shipping time Observations Port of departure Port of arrival produce. General shipping Vessels specific for companies operating in the EU Ashdod Marseilles 3 days the purpose Mediterranean are some- times called upon in busy months. Practically all the produce is unloaded in Marseilles and then carried by road to the various consumer countries.
Content published by the Market News Service of CIRAD − All rights reserved No. 159 September 2008 35 Import – export exotics and off season fruit and vegetables
www.sworld.com
Siège social : London Office : 57, rue de la Réunion 140 New Cavendish Street BP119 - 94538 Rungis – France London W1W 6YE – England Tél. : +33 (0)1 56 34 05 05 Tél. : +44 (0)20 7436 2646 Fax : +33 (0)1 56 34 00 10 Fax : +44 (0)20 7580 4744 e-mail : [email protected] e-mail : [email protected]
Content published by the Market News Service of CIRAD − All rights reserved CLOSE-UP
Avocado is a traditional crop in Peru where annual production of around 110 000 t puts it among the 10 leading producer Producer country sheet countries in the world. However, it only appeared on the world market at the end of the 1990s, driven in particular by 'ProHass', the association of 'Hass' producers. In five years, Avocado Peru has become an important supplier of 'Hass' to the European market in the summer. Cultural conditions are very original—almost hydroponic—because of the country's very in Peru special climate. Production of 'Hass' should continue to increase strongly in the coming years. Negotiations are in progress for lifting the phytosanitary barriers that forbid entry to certain markets (the United States and Japan).
Production zones
Avocado is grown in the three main climatic zones of the country. Most of production is concentrated in the coastal strip with a desert climate that is atypical for an equatorial region because of the Andes and the cold Humboldt current. All the 'Hass' fruits are grown in this zone (in Ica, Lima, La Libertad and Piura provinces) mainly in industrial plantations at elevations of 300 to 1 000 m. Cultivation is managed under quasi-hydroponic conditions in these arid zones where sanitary pressure is practically nil. There is no rainfall but good water is abundant thanks to underground rivers fed by the Andes. The rest of production is grown on more modestly sized farms on the Sierra (the highland Andean PeruPérou - Avocado - Avocat -- ProductionProduction zone) and in the tropical prov- 121 108 113 inces in the west 100 103 93 94 of the country. 84 73 79 63 68 55 53 54 000 tonnes
Volumes
Avocado was introduced in the fifteenth century and is an 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 0 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 important traditional crop. Production, currently totalling some 100 000 t, was sold only on the domestic market until the mid- SourceSource: : MINAGMINAG 1990s. It was then based on mediocre quality local varieties and 'Fuerte' to a lesser extent. Since then, investors have developed industrial plantations of 'Hass' for export, drawing inspiration from the Chilean model. The area devoted to this variety have increased tremendously from less than 100 ha in 1994 to some 6 000 ha in 2008, of which about 1 500 ha is not yet in production. Planting continues at about 500 ha per year, driven in particular by the expected opening of the US market in the near future. More than 80% of growers belong to the ProHass association that provides both technical support and aid for marketing.
Production calendar and varieties
The range of varieties grown is very large. 'Topa Topa', derived from the Mexican race, is still common in highland zones as it is tolerant to cold. The black-skinned fruits have a high oil con- tent and are of mediocre quality. Hybrids bred by crossing Guatemalan and West Peru — Avocado — Production calendar Indian varieties ('Choquette', 'Collinred', J F M A M J J A S O N D etc.) are grown in the tropical zones in the eastern part of the country. 'Hass' is Hass clearly dominant among the varieties ex- ported. It is grown on about 25% of the area under avocado and its share is tending to increase. 'Fuerte' is still widely planted, mainly to supply the domestic market. The range is completed by 'Ettinger', 'Zutano', 'Nabal' and 'Bacon'.
Content published by the Market News Service of CIRAD − All rights reserved No. 159 September 2008 37 BEST AVOCADO
4HE BEST VARIETIES FROM THE BEST SOILS IN THE WORLD AND WARRANTY OF THE BEST BRANDS ALL YEAR ROUND
Gabriel Burunat Bokooplus - Tél : (33)1 46 44 52 78 - http://www.bokooplus.com - Siret : 48267172400011 - Siret : 48267172400011 Bokooplus - Tél : (33)1 46 44 52 78 http://www.bokooplus.com
RUE DE LA CORDERIE #ENTRA 2UNGIS CEDEX &RANCE Content published by the Market News Service of CIRAD − All rights reserved 4ÏL &AX