Adopting a New Religion: The Case of Protestantism in 16th Century Germany Davide Cantoni∗ University of Munich August 2011 Abstract Using a rich dataset of territories and cities of the Holy Roman Empire in the 16th century, this paper investigates the determinants of adoption and diffusion of Protestantism as a state religion. A territory’s distance to Wittenberg, the city where Martin Luther taught, is a major determinant of adoption. This finding is consistent with a theory of strategic neighbourhood interactions: in an uncertain legal context, introducing the Reformation was a risky enterprise for territorial lords, and had higher prospects of success if powerful neighbouring states committed to the new faith first. The predictions of this theory are then compared to the actual patterns of expansion of Protestantism using a panel dataset featuring the dates of introduction of the Reformation. Version: 1.1 Keywords: Protestantism, State religions, Spatial adoption of policies JEL Classification: N34,Z12,R38 ∗Seminar fur¨ Wirtschaftsgeschichte, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universitat¨ Munchen,¨ Ludwigstr. 33/IV, 80539 Munich (Germany). Email:
[email protected]. I thank Antonio Ciccone, Ruixue Jia, Jared Rubin, Joachim Voth, Ludger Woessmann, and three anonymous referees for helpful comments, and Regina Baar-Cantoni and Eike Wolgast for expert counseling on the history of German Reformation. Katharina Kube provided outstanding research assistance. 1 Introduction Starting with Max Weber’s (1904/05) famous inquiry on the “Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism,” religion has widely been seen by social scientists as one of the cul- tural traits most likely to influence economic outcomes. The findings about any direct effects of Protestantism on economic growth are unclear at best (Delacroix and Nielsen, 2001; Cantoni, 2010).