Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized A WORLD BANK STUDY Tunisia in a Changing Climate Assessment and Actions for Increased Resilience and Development Photograph by Dorte Verner Edited by Dorte Verner Washington, D.C. © 2013 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved 1 2 3 4 16 15 14 13 World Bank Studies are published to communicate the results of the Bank’s work to the development community with the least possible delay. The manuscript of this paper therefore has not been prepared in accordance with the procedures appropriate to formally edited texts. This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. Note that The World Bank does not necessarily own each component of the content included in the work. 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All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: [email protected]. ISBN (paper): 978-0-8213-9857-9 ISBN (electronic): 978-0-8213-9858-6 DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-9857-9 Cover photo credit: © Dorte Verner, used with permission. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data. Verner, Dorte. Tunisia in a changing climate : assessment and actions for increased resilience and development/ Dorte Verner; Sustainable Development Department, Middle East and North Africa Region. pages cm Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-8213-9857-9 — ISBN 978-0-8213-9858-6 (ebook) 1. Climatic changes—Tunisia. 2. Climatic changes—Economic aspects—Tunisia. 3. Climatic changes—Social aspects—Tunisia. I. World Bank. Middle East and North Africa Region. Sustainable Development. II. Title. QC991.T8V47 2013 363.738’7409611—dc23 2012049875 Contents Preface xi Acknowledgments xii Executive Summary xvii The Climate Is Getting Hotter, Dryer, and More Variable xviii Warming and Drying Trends Continue Exacerbating Water Scarcity xix Increased Climate Variability and Change Impact Food Security and GDP xx Poor People and Communities Are Among the Most Vulnerable to Climate Change xxi Climate Change Adaptation Should Be an Integrated Part of Public Sector Management for Sustainable Development xxii Adaptation Decision Making Must Be Supported by a Range of Policy Measures xxiv There Are a Number of Priority Investments for Tunisia xxviii Notes xxxiii References xxxiii Chapter 1 Climate Change Is Happening and People Are Affected 1 Climate Change Is Happening Now 5 Climate Change Impacts Are Socially Differentiated 6 Climate Change Impacts People and the Economy 8 Climate Change Adaptation Is about Reducing Vulnerability 10 Climate Change Adaptation Should Be an Integrated Part of Public Sector Management for Sustainable Development 12 Notes 17 References 18 iii iv Contents Chapter 2 A Synthesis of Climate Change Scenarios and Impacts 21 Finding Evidence of a Changing Climate 23 A Land of Contrasting Climates 24 Warmer Everywhere, Drier in the North, and Rising Seas 26 Climate Models Suggest More Local Warming and Drying 34 Building Climate Change Scenarios for Tunis, Downscaling Methods 39 Greater Scarcity of Water and Harm to Natural Systems 47 Notes 52 References 52 Chapter 3 Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Tunisia: A Global and Local Perspective 59 Analytical and Empirical Framework 61 Impacts of Climate Change on Global Food Prices and Local Yields 66 Global Climate Change Impacts 69 Local Climate Change Impacts 71 Notes 76 References 77 Chapter 4 Socioeconomic Effects of Climate Change in Central and Southern Tunisia 79 Projected Climate Change in Central and Southern Tunisia and Impacts on Livelihoods 80 Methodological Principles and Data-Gathering Techniques 84 Climate Change Impacts on Livelihoods 88 Perceptions of and Vulnerability to Climate Change Impacts 98 Livelihood Strategies and Assets for Adapting to Climate Change 101 Operational Recommendations for Adaptive Responses and Institutional Measures 109 Notes 116 References 120 Chapter 5 Recommended Climate Policy Responses and Actions in Tunisia 121 Policy Responses to Climate Change Impacts in Tunisia 122 Climate Change Adaptation Should Be an Integrated Part of Public Sector Management for Sustainable Development 124 Policy Options Are Available to Support Climate Change Adaptation 128 Contents v Facilitate the Development of Publicly Accessible and Reliable Information and Analyses Related to Adaptation 128 Provide Human and Technical Resources and Services to Support Adaptation 132 Build Climate Resilience of the Poor and Vulnerable Through Social Protection and Other Measures 138 Develop a Supportive Policy and Institutional Framework for Adaptation 139 The Reform of Tunisia’s Energy Strategy Could Offer Important Opportunities for Economic Growth, Increased Climate Resilience, and Climate Change Mitigation 142 Horizontal and Vertical Collaboration Is Critical for Effective Climate Change Policy Making 147 Regional and International Collaboration Is Also Essential for Building Climate Resilience 147 Build Capacity to Generate and Manage Revenue and to Analyze Financial Needs and Opportunities 148 Improving Resilience and Adaptability of Rural Communities 149 Notes 154 References 154 Appendix A List of Daily Weather Stations in NCDC Archive that Were Reporting in 2011 157 Appendix B Notable Floods in Tunisia (Dartmouth Flood Observatory) 159 Appendix C Supplementary Tables and Figures for Chapter 3 161 Appendix D Analytical Framework and Field Strategy 165 Appendix E Questionnaire Format 175 Boxes Box 1.1 IPCC Definitions: Climate, Climate Change, and Climate Variability 3 Box 1.2 Ongoing Work in Tunisia on Climate Change 4 Box 1.3 Geographic and Social Political Context 7 Box 1.4 Definition of Climate Change Adaptation 11 Box 1.5 Gender and Climate Change in Tunisia 17 Box 3.1 Limitations of the Modeling Suite 65 vi Contents Box 4.1 Tunisia’s Climate Change Hotspots: Arid Regions 82 Box 4.2 Key Socioeconomic Characteristics for Governorates Visited in the Central and Southern Regions 83 Box 4.3 Selection Criteria for Interviewees and List of Surveyed Communities 86 Box 4.4 Surveying Communities in the Central and Southern Regions 87 Box 4.5 Loss of Native Species: A Major Factor in Rangeland Degradation 90 Box 4.6 Gabès Oasis: One of the Last Coastal Oases 93 Box 4.7 Climate Change Impacts on Olive Arboriculture: Changing Production Cycles 95 Box 4.8 Fisheries in the Gulf of Gabès and Wetland Ecosystems 97 Box 4.9 Challenges to Social Ties and Networks According to Respondents in the Central and Southern Regions 107 Box 4.10 Rangeland Rehabilitation with Native Species 113 Box 4.11 Integrated Oasis Management: Example of the Hazoua Oasis 114 Box 5.1 Research and Development in Tunisia’s Agricultural Sector 134 Box 5.2 Ksar Ghilène (Tunisia) Stand-Alone/Autonomous Brackish Desalination Plant with Reverse Osmosis (RO) and Photo Voltaic (PV) 136 Box 5.3 Weather Based Index Insurance 139 Figures Figure ES.1 Twentieth-Century Mean Temperatures (Left) and Precipitation (Right), Tunisia xviii Figure ES.2 Range of Changes in Monthly Mean TMAX (°C) and PRCP (Percent), Tunis xix Figure ES.3 Impacts of Combined Climate Changes on Household Incomes xxi Figure ES.4 Framework for Action on Climate Change Adaptation: Adaptation Pyramid xxii Figure 1.1 Conceptual Framework for Defining Vulnerability 12 Figure 1.2 Framework for Action on Climate Change Adaptation: Adaptation Pyramid 13 Figure 2.1 Monthly Mean Precipitation, Maximum and Minimum Temperatures 25 Figure 2.2 Mean Annual Precipitation for Northern