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India Technology | February 12, 2016 February 12, 2016 MORGAN STANLEY INDIA COMPANY PRIVATE LIMITED+ Parag Gupta India Technology [email protected] +91 22 6118-2230 Utkarsh Khandelwal Asia Insight: India Internet Primer – [email protected] +91 22 6118-2226 Gaurav Rateria Champions of Online Retail [email protected] +91 22 6118-2237 GMV growth is surprising on the upside because of faster online India Technology adoption. Globally, grocery/food delivery companies have generated Asia Pacific large returns and general merchandise/fashion companies have built dominance. We compare this with the Indian landscape to identify IndustryView In-Line emerging leaders in these categories. eCommerce gross merchandise value (GMV) beating expectations: Exhibit 1: Internet and online shopper penetration in 2020 Venture capital/private equity (VC/PE) activity remained strong in 2015, with India receiving US$6.6bn in such investments, 50% higher than in 2014. This is a key driver of growth, as is the case globally, and is probably leading to GMV beating expectations. eCommerce GMV in India in 2014 was 12% higher than our estimate. We now increase our 2020 estimate from US$102bn to US$119bn. This takes our estimate of the total Indian internet market size from US$137bn to US$159bn (now including online food aggregation business). We estimate the potential market capitalization of the Indian internet market (excluding foreign and government companies) at US$180-225bn in 2020, against US$3bn today, which makes the story compelling for global investors. Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates Three pillars of growth: 1) internet penetration ​– India is adding three new internet users every second and is already the second-largest internet market Exhibit 2: Indian internet market size in 2020 globally in terms of user numbers. We expect internet penetration to increase from 32% in 2015 to 59% in 2020, translating to a near doubling of the internet user base; 2) increasing online shopper numbers – from just 12% of internet users in 2015 (50mn), we expect this to increase to 40% in 2020 (320mn). As it has been for global companies such as GrubHub and Zalando, this is usually the most important fundamental factor behind GMV growth; and 3) increase in per capita income – per capita incomes are likely to double by 2025, and this should drive higher aspirations of the Indian consumer. Grocery and food delivery top the list of value creators globally: Three of the top five wealth creators within the list of global companies discussed in Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates this report belong to these two categories; Instacart tops the list. In India, we estimate the fastest GMV CAGR in these two categories, at 134%, 2014-20. We expect electronics and fashion to remain the most dominant categories, as in Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with China and the US. We expect online penetration in these two categories to companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, increase from 3-5% in 2014 to 25-30% in 2020, resulting in an online market investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan of US$88bn (74% of the Indian eCommerce market then). We believe these Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan categories should generate the largest/fastest wealth creators in the Indian Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their internet arena, and this report explores them in detail. investment decision. For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this Key risks: A global macroeconomic slowdown could affect the flow of VC/PE report. money into India adversely, thereby slowing GMV growth and lowering += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered w ith FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to NASD/NYSE valuations. Regulatory intervention is another key concern. restrictions on communications w ith a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account. 1 India Technology | February 12, 2016 Global Internet Team India Australia Parag Gupta Andrew McLeod +91 22 6118-2230 +61 2 9770-1569 [email protected] [email protected] Utkarsh Khandelwal +91 22 6118-2226 [email protected] Gaurav Rateria +91 22 6118-2237 [email protected] China and Hong Kong Europe Robert Lin Edward Hill-Wood +852 2848-5835 +44 20-7425-9224 [email protected] [email protected] Amanda Chen Andrea Ferraz [email protected] [email protected] Claire Cao Anisha Singhal [email protected] [email protected] Japan Korea Tetsuro Tsusaka Sam Min +81 3-6836-8412 +82 2399-4936 [email protected] [email protected] Mia Nagasaka +81 3-6836-8406 Latin America [email protected] Michel Morin +1 212-761-0328 [email protected] North America Brian Nowak +1 212-761-3365 [email protected] Dean Prissman +1 212-296-5271 [email protected] Michael Costantini [email protected] 2 India Technology | February 12, 2016 Contents Key Charts Summary Mapping the Global Online Retail Space for Key Categories and Companies Venture Capital Activity Remains Robust Millennials Will Drive Internet Penetration and the Online Shift Electronics – The Traffic Acquirer Fashion/Apparel – The Profitable Category Grocery and Food Delivery - The Next Big Thing Furniture and Home Furnishing – A Niche Category Appendix 1: Global Valuation Comparables 3 India Technology | February 12, 2016 Key Charts Exhibit 3: Internet penetration and the number of online shoppers in India will take over five years to reach the levels in China in 2014 Source: Internet & Mobile Association of India (IAMAI), China Internet Netw ork Information Centre (CNNIC), CEIC, O VUM, International Data Corp (IDC), Morgan Stanley Research Exhibit 4: Large opportunity within the overall consumption pie Source: Euromonitor, iResearch, India Brand Equity Foundation ( IBEF), KPMG, Economic Times, Morgan Stanley Research; India online sales in 2020 are Morgan Stanley Research estimates 4 India Technology | February 12, 2016 Exhibit 5: eCommerce as a percentage of GDP: The effect on the Indian economy is likely to be high, just as it has been in China in the past five years Source: IMF, IDC, Euromonitor, Morgan Stanley Research. GDP estimates as per IMF; eCommerce estimates are Morgan Stanley Research estimates Exhibit 6: India: Online penetration has significant room to improve. In most categories, global comparables are already where we see India by 2020 Source: Euromonitor, Morgan Stanley Research, e=Morgan Stanley Research estimates. For apparel/fashion and electronics, the global comparable is China data for 2013; for furniture/home décor and health/personal care it is China in 2014; for food/grocery and food ordering/takeaw ay it is the UK in 2014 5 India Technology | February 12, 2016 Exhibit 7: Top global value creators outside India within the four key categories of eCommerce explored in this report. Grocery and food delivery companies feature high on the list. Source: W all Street Journal (W SJ), Bloomberg, Crunchbase, e27, company data, Morgan Stanley Research. To calculate CAGR of returns, the numerator is market capitalization for listed companies (as of 9-Feb-2016) or latest available valuation for private companies as disclosed in the media sources quoted above. The denominator is the earliest available valuation in a private round as per the media sources quoted above or market cap since listing. *Unlisted companies. 6 India Technology | February 12, 2016 Exhibit 8: Some of the key global private companies that have raised more than US$1bn funds cumulatively so far (US$ bn) Source: W SJ, Crunchbase, Morgan Stanley Research Exhibit 9: India: Higher VC/PE funding activity in 2015 than ever before (US$mn) Source: Economic Times, Inc42.com, VC Circle, Crunchbase, Morgan Stanley Research 7 India Technology | February 12, 2016 Exhibit 10: Listed internet stocks (excluding social media, search, and gaming) in China and the US had a mixed 2015 with respect to stock returns. However, on a combined basis, investors made a 17% return from these stocks (market cap in US$bn) Source: Thomson Reuters Exhibit 11: Capital efficiency (GMV to total capital raised) Source: Company data, Economic Times, Inc42.com, Morgan Stanley Research 8 India Technology | February 12, 2016 Summary In our 2-Feb-2015 note, The Next India: Internet - Opening Up New Opportunities, we concluded that the total size of the Indian internet market is likely to grow from US$11bn in 2013 to US$137bn in 2020. This growth will be built on rising internet penetration, the aspirations of the Indian consumer, and increasing per capita incomes. The lack of a well-developed offline retail infrastructure, unlike in markets such as the US, also creates a situation in which consumers, more so in smaller cities and towns, will naturally shop online because of the wider assortment of products just a few clicks away. As Amazon India's CEO put it (on 5-June-2015), "Based on our global experience, consumers care about selection, low prices, fast and reliable deliveries. Sellers care about sales, profits, and fair and transparent comprehensive platforms. We will continue to focus on three key aspects – selection of products; enjoyable, reliable and trustworthy online shopping experience; and building quick and convenient delivery mechanisms." We believe growing ambitions among young entrepreneurs in India are leading to the development of a strong ecosystem resulting in a rich and engaging consumer experience. The internet and the internet of things are now becoming pervasive in the way people search, shop, eat, pay, communicate, and consume media. And, as these new trends spread across a larger population, they will have an indelible effect on day-to-day lives.
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