Cradle Mountain Demand Potential Assessment
February 2016 Contents
Introduction Interstate findings Intrastate findings Overall execution imperatives Appendix
2 Background and objectives
Background − Cradle Mountain is a primary gateway to the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area − It has been identified that the region would benefit from ‘precinct revitalisation’, hence the development a Cradle Mountain Revitalisation Master Plan has been proposed − BDA was commissioned to undertake a consumer demand assessment to provide input to the Master Plan, in the form of a Cradle Mountain Demand Potential Assessment
►The demand potential assessment included online surveys in both interstate and intrastate markets Primary objectives − To provide consumer feedback in relation to the Cradle Mountain Master Plan concept − To provide estimates of potential incremental demand for the region resulting from the redevelopment − To provide execution imperatives for the Cradle Mountain Master Plan − To assess potential incremental benefit for Tasmania from the development
3 Fieldwork
BDA conducted the research via online surveys − Interstate sample: ►644 interstate residents were surveyed, all of whom were considering visiting Tasmania for a holiday in the next 2 years • For the purposes of the demand projections international demand is assumed to convert in line with the tested interstate market ►A subset of 208 interstate residents were later recontacted to provide additional outputs, all of whom had previously indicated that they were likely to visit Cradle Mountain − Intrastate sample: ►211 Tasmanian residents were surveyed Survey structure − Respondents were exposed to stimulus of the Cradle Mountain experience today, then the Cradle Mountain Master Plan concept − Responses and intended behaviour measured for each element of the concept
4 Interstate findings
Recent demand trends Pre-stimulus − Past and future travel Cradle Mountain today (post-stimulus) − Core metrics and impact on intention − Barriers Redeveloped Cradle Mountain (post-stimulus) − Core metrics and impact on intention − Details of intended Cradle Mountain trip − New Cradle Mountain experiences − Barriers − Transport preference and pricing expectation Incremental demand estimates Summary and implications
5 Australia travel demand
Aus Interstate demand Aus Inbound demand Steady growth in Aus Overnight (millions) - 12MMT Overnight (millions) - 12MMT overnight trips Derived by BDA from NVS Derived by BDA from IVS − Both interstate & inbound 30 7 Total demand up 7% year on year Total Interstate holidays growing but not as 6 25 strongly, up 2% year on year 5 20
4 Holidays 15 3 Holidays 10 2
5 1
0 0
Jun 13 Jun Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun 14 Jun 15 Jun
Jun 12 Jun Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 13 Jun 14 Jun 15 Jun
6 Tas travel demand
Tas Interstate demand Tas Inbound demand Total Tas demand Overnight (000's) - 12MMT Overnight (000's) - 12MMT
growing in line with Aus Derived by BDA from TVS Derived by BDA from TVS
1200 180 Total 160 Total − Total Interstate growing 6% 1000 140 800 120 year on year, inbound 7% 100 Both largely in line with national 600 Holidays 80 400 60 Holidays trends, hence share is steady 40 Tas holiday demand 200 20
Thousands 0
Thousands 0
very strong
Jun 14 Jun Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Jun 15 Jun
Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Jun 14 Jun 15 Jun − Interstate growing 17% year 10 Jun on year, Inbound 11% Tas % of Aus Interstate Tas % of Aus Inbound Share of interstate trips (%) Share of inbound (%) − Both gaining share of Aus Derived by BDA from TVS / NVS Derived by BDA from TVS / IVS demand 6 Holidays 4.0 Holidays 5 3.5 3.0 4 2.5 3 2.0 Total Total 2 1.5 1.0 1 0.5
0 0.0
Jun 08 Jun 15 Jun Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Jun 14 Jun
Jun 12 Jun Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 13 Jun 14 Jun 15 Jun
7 Cradle Mountain overnight demand
Cradle Mtn demand Cradle Mountain Interstate demand Cradle Mountain Inbound demand Overnight (000's) - 12MMT Overnight (000's) - 12MMT also growing strongly Derived by BDA from TVS Derived by BDA from TVS 100 Total 40 Total − Interstate & Inbound both up 80 over 20% year on year 60 Holidays 20 Holidays And trending similarly 40 Nearly all trips are holidays 20 − Share of Tas trips recovering
Thousands 0 0 from recent dip
Early growth in recent cycle was
Jun 13 Jun Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun 14 Jun 15 Jun
Jun 14 Jun Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Jun 15 Jun largely to Hobart.. ..but regional areas (including Cradle Cradle Mountain % of Tas Interstate Cradle Mountain % of Tas Inbound Mtn) now lifting strongly Share of interstate trips (%) Share of inbound (%) Derived by BDA from TVS Derived by BDA from TVS 25 40 Holidays 35 Holidays 20 30 15 25 20 10 15 Total 5 10 Total 5
0 0
Jun 14 Jun 08 Jun Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Jun 15 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Jun 14 Jun 15 Jun
8 Cradle Mountain day trip demand
Interstate day trip Cradle Mountain Interstate day trips Cradle Mountain Inbound day trips Day trips (000's) - 12MMT Day trips (000's) - 12MMT demand steady Derived by BDA from TVS Derived by BDA from TVS 60 Total 18 Not as strong as overnight, 16 Total − 14 hence day trips % is down 40 12 10 8 Holidays Inbound day trips 20 Holidays 6 4 growing strongly 2 0
− Largely in line with overnight 0
Jun 12 Jun Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 13 Jun 14 Jun 15 Jun
demand 08 Jun
Jun 14 Jun Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Jun 15 Jun
Day trip share of total CM Interstate Day trip share of total CM Inbound Share of interstate trips (%) Share of inbound (%) Derived by BDA from TVS Derived by BDA from TVS 50 45 Total 45 40 Holidays 35 40 30 35 25 Holidays 30 20 25 15 10 20 Total 5 15 0
Day trip demand refers to those who visited and
Jun 14 Jun 08 Jun Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Jun 15 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Jun 14 Jun 15 Jun stopped at Cradle Mountain but did not stay overnight 08 Jun
9 Past & future travel (Pre-stimulus)
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey Widely travelled States considering travelling to for Likelihood of visiting Cradle Mtn leisure in the next 2 years (%) region in the next 2 years (%) − ¾ have travelled intrastate, 70% interstate and ½ OS Tas 100 Not at all likely 1 − 100% considering visiting Qld 68 Not likely 13 Tas in next 2 years (by def'n) Vic 64 Likely 31 Big eastern states also considered by ~1/3, other slower NSW 64 Very likely 32 − 36% have been to Cradle WA 57 Certain 13 Mountain before SA 51 Not sure 10 − 45% intend to visit Cradle in NT 45 the next two years # nights would spend in Cradle Mtn % Likely-Certain to visit in next 2 yrs i.e. very likely or certain to visit ACT 39
Leisure travel over the last 12 months Ever visited the Cradle Mountain Day trip 7 (%) region in Tasmania (%) 1 14 2 35 Overnight within own state 75 Yes 36 3 23 Travelled to another state 70 4 10 No 64 Travelled overseas 52 5+ 11
Questions: Which of the following have you done in the last year? Which of the following Questions: How likely are you to visit Cradle Mountain region in Tasmania on a leisure trip states would you consider travelling to for leisure in the next 2 years? Have you ever visited 10 in the next two years? How many nights do you think you would spend in the Cradle the Cradle Mountain region in Tasmania? Mountain region in Tasmania?
Stimulus – Cradle Mountain today
11 Base appeal of Today's Cradle Mtn
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey 52% had No to Low Previous awareness of the Cradle Appeal of the Cradle Mountain prior awareness of CM Mountain experiences (%) experience (%) rd − 1/3 were moderately aware, No awareness 23 Very unappealing 4 only 15% high/very high Low awareness 29 Somewhat unappealing 3 After being shown CM Moderate awareness 34 Neither/ not sure 7 experience stimulus… High awareness Somewhat appealing − …>85% found it appealing 10 42 With 44% rating it 'very appealing' Very high awareness 5 Very appealing 44 CM experience generally considered to be unique Uniqueness of the Cradle Mountain experience (%) − 34% rated it 'very unique'… − …while 57% said it was just Not at all unique 0 'somewhat unique' Not very unique 1
Neither/ not sure 7
Somewhat unique 57
Very unique 34
Questions: Before reading this information, how aware were you of the depth and range of Questions: Thinking of all the different places you have travelled to, how unique would you the Cradle Mountain experience? How appealing is the Cradle Mountain experience? 12 say the Cradle Mountain experience is? Stimulus impact on intention
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey Minimal impact on intention to visit Likelihood of visiting Cradle Mtn in the next 2 years, after seeing stimulus (%) − While CM was considered appealing, intention to visit is largely unchanged Not at all likely 2 − Again, a 2-3 nights the most preferred length Not likely 11 of stay Likely 31
Very likely 32 Certain 13 Not sure 11 Likelihood of visiting CM in next 2 years (%) # of nights would spend in Cradle Mtn % now Likely-Certain to visit in next 2 yrs
Pre Stimulus -1 -13 32 13 45 Day trip 3 1 8 2 32 Post 'Today' Stimulus -2 -11 32 13 46 3 28 4 15
Not at all Not likely Very Likely Certain 5+ 14
Questions: Having seen this information, how likely are you to visit Cradle Mountain in the next two years? How many nights do you think you would spend in the Cradle Mountain 13 region? Barriers to visiting today's Cradle Mtn
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey Amongst those unlikely to visit CM… Reasons why are you unlikely to visit Cradle Mountain, after seeing stimulus − …Cradle Mtn's current offer just failing to % now Not at all/Not likely to visit in next 2 years, n=80 generate sufficient interest There are other places I’d prefer to travel to 49 − Nearly half said they had other places they'd I would like to go, just not right now 26 rather visit, and ¼ have it down the to-do list Have been to Cradle Mountain before and am − 19% have already been to Cradle Mountain not interested in returning 19 and are not interest in returning It costs too much to get there 18 − Cost and distance also a deterrent for some I’m just not interested 15 The climate is unappealing 10
Too far from where I live 9
Not enough activities that I like to participate in 8
Don't see the value in this holiday experience 6
It takes too long / too hard to get there 3
Not intending to visit Tasmania 3
Not suitable for children 3
The accommodation is not appealing 1
I don’t know enough about it 1
Questions: Which of the following are reasons why are you unlikely to visit Cradle Mountain? (choose as many as apply) 14 CM today intention – Qualitative summary Remote wilderness attractive & WOM positive, but not appealing enough / suitable for all Intending to visit Cradle Mountain Not intending to visit Cradle Mountain − Unique, remote wilderness where you can relax − Other destinations more appealing ►Beautiful rugged part of Australia unlike any other in its ►Other parts of Australia are more appealing wild and cool beauty: nature at its best ►I'll be mostly travelling overseas for the next few years ►Seems unique and very wild, not many people around ►Nothing to do there ►A great place to get away from the busy Sydney life with − Been before, would rather go somewhere new lots to do and relaxation ►Have been there before - would rather visit other places in ►The climate & landscape are so different to Queensland Australia that I haven't been to before − Experience nature through walks & other activities ►I have been before, and whilst very enjoyable, I have lots ►While I'm still able & fit enough to do some bushwalking of other places on my list to see and experience the wonderful scenery and peacefulness ►I was there not long ago & would like to see other places ►I love visiting natural landmarks and enjoy walking in − Outdoor activities unappealing for some nature and seeing wildlife. ►Hiking & outdoor activities are not for me ►I can enjoy the beautiful view of Dove Lake, have a short ►I don't like fishing or camping, bushwalking rainforest walk & see Tasmanian Devils. I also want to experience canyoning which sounds very intriguing ►More interested in food and wine − Positive recommendations/past experience − Current experience not suitable for all ►The views and tranquillity were breath taking and I will go ►I have small children and small children can not walk that back at one stage or another long. Cradle Mountain is more for adults or teenagers ► Friends have recommended I go there, and I've always ►Too old to enjoy all the experiences planned on doing so - I never realised though that it was ►When I visited Cradle Mountain in years past I was much more than just a pretty view fitter, one of the best things to do is the walks and I don't think I would be up to it. Question: Please briefly explain why you are likely / not likely to visit Cradle Mountain in the next 2 years 15
Stimulus – Redeveloped Cradle Mountain
Note: abbreviated stimulus shown 16 Shift summary: Intention to visit
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey Clear gains in intentions Likelihood of visiting Cradle Mountain in next 2 years (%) for visit Cradle Mountain region… − …with redevelopment of the visitor experience Pre Stimulus -1 -13 32 13 45 Gaining in both the general likelihood of visiting, and in degree of certainty 18% 'Certain' to visit redeveloped CM, up from 13% as it is today.. ..’Very likely’ also lifted from 32% to 37% Post 'Today' Stimulus -2 -11 32 13 46 − Very low negative response 2% are ‘Not at all’ likely to visit
Post 'Tomorrow' Stimulus -2 -9 37 18 55
Not at all Not likely Very Likely Certain
Questions: How likely are you to visit Cradle Mountain region in Tasmania on a leisure trip Questions: Given the redevelopment of the visitor experience at Cradle Mountain, how in the next two years? Having seen this information, how likely are you to visit Cradle 17 likely would you be to visit Cradle Mountain in the next two years? Mountain in the next two years? Impact of CM redevelopment
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey Uniqueness of the redeveloped Redevelopment impact on likelihood Likelihood of visiting the redeveloped Cradle Mountain (%) of visiting the Cradle Mountain (%) Cradle Mountain in the next 2 years (%)
Not at all unique 1 Much less likely 2 Not at all likely 2 Not likely 9 Not very unique 3 Less likely 3 Neither more or Likely 22 Neither / not sure 9 21 less likely Very likely 37 Somewhat 43 More likely 43 unique Certain 18 Very unique 43 Much more likely 31 Not sure 12
Again, CM stands out as being highly unique # of nights would spend in redeveloped CM region − Redevelopment strengthens proportion that count it as 'very % Likely-Certain to visit in next 2 yrs
unique; up from 34% to 43% Day trip 3 Redevelopment also lifting likelihood of visiting 1 8 − 74% more likely to visit Cradle Mountain in light of the 2 27 proposed improvements.. 3 28 − ..and over ½ intend to visit in the next 2 years 4 16 Length of stay remains fairly steady (around 2-3 nights), though slightly more now considering a longer visit (4+ nights lifting from 29% to 34%) 5+ 18
Questions: Thinking of all the different places you have travelled to, how unique would you Questions: Given the redevelopment of the visitor experience at Cradle Mountain, how say redeveloped Cradle Mountain region is? Given the redevelopment of the visitor 18 likely would you be to visit Cradle Mountain in the next two years? Given the redevelopment, experience at Cradle Mountain, would you be more or less likely to visit Cradle Mountain? how many nights do you think you would spend in the Cradle Mountain region?
Redeveloped CM intention: Qual. summary
Redevelopment enhances experience, comfort & accessibility though some prefer it as is Intending to visit redeveloped CM − Enhanced accessibility for older visitors & children ►It makes the area accessible and more comfortable for − Redevelopment adds to the experience older visitors ►Always wanted to return – this redevelopment, in ►The area seems to be much more accessible and I particular the skyrail, makes it even more appealing would very much like to take my children to see the area ►I love the region. The last visit was bleak and cold but still enjoyable. The redevelopment would make it 200% − Lots to do other than bushwalking more enjoyable and memorable ►A lot more to do there these days other than go bushwalking. I like the fact that this area has been ►Warm and welcoming, hopefully this development goes ahead. I always thought Cradle Mountain was a bit hard to especially developed for day visitors by the inclusion of access, but this sounds very inviting organized group tours and the bistro and lounge areas − Attractive facilities with increased comfort Not intending to visit redeveloped CM ►Haven't been on a skyrail before & views look amazing. I − Some prefer it as is, development will bring crowds enjoy the comforts of indoors but also enjoy the outdoors ►Just leave it alone, the whole reason to go there is to ►Everything sounds amazing, great places to eat, enjoy natural beauty, anything manmade gets in the way beautiful location, great education, wonderful facilities ►I think it would still be worth visiting, but given that it ►Sounds like the kind of experience I would enjoy. I like would attract more people and small children, I'd be less the idea of visiting CM but have been put off by the cold willing to stay for a long time. It would be too crowded and physical activity which I am not up to any more − Less developed or overseas destinations preferred − Showcasing the natural environment ►Have been before and would rather see other places. My ►It is an amazing area and the redevelopment will preference is to visit less developed natural areas enhance but not detract (as it seems environmentally ►I prefer to spend my holidays overseas friendly) from the area’s beautiful surroundings
Question: Please briefly explain why you are likely / not likely to visit the redeveloped Cradle Mountain region 19
Redeveloped Cradle Mtn Experiences
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey Appeal of redeveloped Cradle Mountain experiences (%)
Overall redevelopment -4 -4 30 53
Cable car -7 -3 21 63
Dove Lake Viewing Shelter -3 -3 35 50
Pod Shelters along Dove Lake -4 -4 39 42
The Cradle Feast -3 -5 38 36
Alpine Village Guest Lounge Bar -4 -5 39 36
Reimagined Visitor Centre -2 -3 43 35
Visitor Centre Café -2 -3 45 35
Alpine Village Courtyard Events -4 -6 40 29
Very unappealing Somewhat unappealing Somewhat appealing Very appealing Very high appeal for redeveloped Cradle Mountain experiences: 83% finding the proposed changes appealing, 53% rating the overall development 'very appealing‘ and Cable Car higher at 63% ‘very appealing’. Dove Lake Viewing Shelter next with 50%, though slightly higher overall appeal. Other elements also rating very well. Events held at the Alpine Village Courtyard least appeal but still largely positive.
Questions: How appealing are each of the following newly developed experiences? 20 Cradle Mtn Experience Appeal Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey Cable Car clearly the Most appealing experience of the Least appealing experience of the CM redevelopment CM redevelopment most appealing element % of those Likely-Certain to visit redeveloped CM % of those Likely-Certain to visit redeveloped CM n=494 n=494 − 65% ranking it as the most Cable Car 65 Guest Lounge Bar at the appealing aspect.. Alpine Village 13
− ..of the Cradle Mountain Pod Shelters along the Dove 7 Events held at the Alpine redevelopment Lake Circuit Walk Village Courtyard 12 Pod shelters a distant 2nd on 7% Dove Lake Viewing Shelter No clear loser 7 The Cradle Feast 9 rd − 1/3 not considering any of The Cradle Feast 7 Visitor Centre Café 8 the experiences unappealing Visitor Centre Café Pod Shelters along the Dove − Guest lounge most likely to 4 Lake Circuit Walk 8 have least appeal.. Guest Lounge Bar at the − ..but still only 13% Alpine Village 4 Reimagined Visitor Centre 7
Reimagined Visitor Centre 3 Cable Car 6
Events held at the Alpine Dove Lake Viewing Shelter Village Courtyard 3 6
None of the above 1 None of the above 32
Questions: Which of the following newly developed experiences do you find the most appealing? Which of the following newly developed experiences do you find the least 21 appealing?
Elements of the new visitor experience
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey
Cable Car & Dove Lake Experiences would engage in, if visited Cradle Mountain Viewing Shelter most likely to % of those Likely-Certain to visit the redeveloped CM, n=494 be used Cable Car 83 − Cable Car tops the list with 83% 56% said they would use the − Dove Lake Viewing Shelter 74 redesigned Visitors Centre Alpine Village events & facilities − Visitor Centre Café 65 have lowest planned engagement Pod Shelters along the Dove 60 Lake Circuit Walk
Reimagined Visitor Centre 56
The Cradle Feast 53
Guest Lounge Bar at the Alpine Village 52
Events held at the Alpine Village Courtyard 41
Questions: If you were to visit Cradle Mountain, which of the following newly developed experiences would you engage in? 22
Elements of the new visitor experience
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey Viewing window & heated Most appealing elements of the new Dove Lake Mtn experience % that would engage in Dove Lake experiences if they visited Cradle Mountain, n=399 natural shelters top appeal… − …of Dove Lake elements Large viewing window overlooking Dove Lake 61 Hold greatest appeal for over ½ Warm viewing shelter crafted from natural materials 51 Experiencing nature in a comfortable, Heated, low impact pod shelters around Dove Lake 47 independent and low impact way Information on local flora, fauna and history 38 − Activity booking and park info key Picnic facilities at Dove Lake 35 elements of the new Visitor Centre Café/kiosk at the Dove Lake Viewing Shelter 34 Booking activities most appealing to 61% of One-on-one park ranger engagement 29 those who would use the reimagined Visitor Centre Low impact space for contemplation 28 Dove Lake arrival terminal 26 Special children's area staffed by park rangers 17 Experiences would engage in, if visited CM None of the above 1 % of those Likely-Certain to visit the redeveloped CM, n=494
Cable Car 83 Most appealing elements of the reimagined Visitor Centre Dove Lake Viewing Shelter 74 % that would use the Visitor Centre if they visited Cradle Mountain, n=278
Visitor Centre Café 65 Booking activities such as horse riding, kayaking, quad bike tours, canyoning, cycle hire and guided walks 61 Pod Shelters along Dove Lake 60 National Park information 55 Reimagined Visitor Centre 56 Outdoor equipment, local handicrafts and souvenir space 36 The Cradle Feast 53 Guest Lounge Bar, Alpine Village 52 Regional interpretation 32 Events at Alpine Village 41 None of the above 3
Questions: If you were to visit Cradle Mountain, which of the following newly developed Questions: Which of the following elements of the reimagined Visitor Centre do you find experiences woud you engage in? Which of the following elements of the new Dove Lake 23 most appealing? Please select as many as apply. mountain experience do you find most appealing? Please select as many as apply. CM Experiences – Qualitative Summary
Cable Car − Very good value ► It looks breathtaking and quite reasonably priced as well
►Offers the best viewing of the entire park with an Appeal -7 -3 21 63 affordable price tag − Positive past experience with cable cars − Engage with beautiful environment in a spectacular ►I believe there should be more skyrails in Australia. The and low impact way one in Cairns is a tourist delight and perhaps more tourists would be drawn to Tasmania with this unique experience ►It looks amazing! The ability to travel above the trees, rivers and lakes and see the wildlife would be spectacular! ►I love skyrails! ►Beautiful panoramic views and gliding through the air in − Ability to carry outdoor equipment attractive a nature wilderness is very appealing ►Being able to take outdoor gear on in the carriages ►25 minutes of some of the best scenery on the planet would make camping more appealing ►Able to see everything - the spectacular scenery from − Accessible for elderly & children the top and those areas not accessible by foot ►As an older person it sounds like a great way to get ►This is the most genuinely appealing. Nobody can close to nature and see it comfortably improve on nature and this is what the Skyrail will show ►Even small children can enjoy the fun and scenery ►See the overall beauty of the place without disturbing it − Concerns about spoiling wilderness for a minority − Comfortable, weather proof & no hiking required ►CM is a recognised wilderness experience. Visitors ►Able to experience the area in comfort all year round should be prepared to hike and deal with the elements. ►I never imagined I would be able to see that much of the Skyrail will degrade one of the world's most unique areas lake & surrounding valley, without trekking through there ►The construction of this will wreck the area, it is too touristy and not in keeping with nature − Fear of heights/water also a problem for some Very unappealing Somewhat unappealing Somewhat appealing Very appealing ►I don't like heights, or being over water
Questions: Please briefly explain why you found [experience] the most appealing? Please briefly explain why you found [experience] the least appealing? 24
CM Experiences – Qualitative Summary
Dove Lake Viewing Shelter Pod Shelters along Dove Lake
Appeal -3- 3 35 50 Appeal -4 -4 39 42
− Enjoy the peace and views in a natural setting − Great for resting & shelter on independent walks ►I enjoy mostly the peace and serenity of Cradle Mountain ►I like the idea of being able to stop, rest, get warm, and I find the viewing shelter to be more useful to me and maybe have a picnic, then moving on the reason why I visit there ►Getting older now and the ability to rest in the warmth ►It appears to be one aspect which won't disrupt the on a day walk is very appealing natural area so much. It blends into the environment ►It's great to have shelter from the elements if necessary ►So relaxing and beautiful. I could sit there for hours ►I prefer to explore by myself. Most of the other − Not really necessary and may spoil beauty attractions seem 'shared‘ ►I would not really need a viewing shelter to enjoy the lake − Man made structures may detract from nature ►Has the possibility of tainting the lake’s natural beauty ►For a 6km walk, I would hope there's not more then two (one at the end of the walk, one midway). Too many of these man-made structures would ruin the natural beauty ►Do not look particularly natural based on current design
Very unappealing Somewhat unappealing Somewhat appealing Very appealing Questions: Please briefly explain why you found [experience] the most appealing? Please briefly explain why you found [experience] the least appealing? 25
CM Experiences – Qualitative Summary
The Cradle Feast Guest Lounge Bar
Appeal -3 -5 38 36 Appeal -4 -5 39 36
− Enjoy tasting local cuisine, fun for the kids − Welcoming & comfortable after a day of hiking ►Have heard a lot of positive things about Tasmanian ►The thought of sitting at the end of a day out hiking with cuisine a drink in front of a fire sounds amazing ►We love experiencing food of the local area ►I would enjoy a quiet drink whilst viewing the beautiful ►More for the kids to do and see scenery − But some prefer to spend time alone with ►It would be a welcome place to unwind after my family and find food options unappealing adventure Some feel it is 'touristy' and out of place ►Don't drink wine, and when on holidays I prefer to − spend time with loved ones not others ►You go there to look at the beauty of the place not to drink and party. Sounds resorty and too touristy for me ►Not much of a fan of overpriced gourmet food - would rather have simpler choices of food and drink ►Looks expensive and too fancy for my tastes
Very unappealing Somewhat unappealing Somewhat appealing Very appealing
Questions: Please briefly explain why you found [experience] the most appealing? Please briefly explain why you found [experience] the least appealing? 26
CM Experiences – Qualitative Summary
Reimagined Visitor Centre ►It would be nice to relax with a coffee and cake after exploring the area Appeal -2- 3 43 35 ►Will provide a nice break and spot to take in the views − Some don’t consider the café a big attraction − Good for information, park services & views ►Seen one seen them all. No one travels to see a visitor centre cafe. ►A great place to hang out before & after exploring the area ►I would rather see the experiences than eat at a café ►Good for all information on Cradle Mountain activities ►I can learn more about the region Events at Alpine Village ►The range of services it will offer ‘Just a visitor centre’ to some, info online anyway − Appeal -4 -6 40 29 ►Just a visitor centre. There's more exciting stuff out there
►Can find this information on the internet if you wish Provide variety other than scenery ►Entrance looks dull. Needs some murals and cultural − welcome signs as with many tourist info centres ►I like to see and hear different things, not just visit scenery ►Sounds like a unique experience Visitor Centre Café ►Varied and interesting, lively − Some prefer quieter wilderness holidays Appeal -2- 3 45 35 ►We are there to view pristine nature: leave that kind of razzamatazz to the more urban areas!!! Current café could be improved, nice spot to relax ►I don't like crowds of people and prefer quieter places − when on holiday ►The existing Visitor Centre Cafe is very basic and could be
improved a great deal Very unappealing Somewhat unappealing Somewhat appealing Very appealing
Questions: Please briefly explain why you found [experience] the most appealing? Please briefly explain why you found [experience] the least appealing? 27
Barriers to visiting tomorrows Cradle Mtn Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey A general lack of interest remains Reasons why unlikely to visit redeveloped Cradle Mountain region the primary barrier for those still not % now Not at all/Not likely to visit in next 2 yrs, n=70 intending to visit Cradle Mtn There are other places I’d prefer to travel to 40 − While the new experiences cuts down the % that had already crossed CM off the 'to-do' I would like to go, just not right now 27 list (i.e. been before, don't want to return) I’m just not interested 16 Down to 10% from 19% after Cradle Mountain Today stimulus Don't see the value in this holiday experience 14 − …stronger pull of other destination, & cost of It costs too much to get there 11 Tas holiday, still keeping some away Have been to Cradle Mountain before and am not interested in returning 10
The climate is unappealing 7
Not enough activities that I like to participate in 7
It's negative impact on the local environment 7
Too far from where I live 6
It takes too long / too hard to get there 3
I don’t know enough about it 1
Questions: Which of the following are reasons why are you unlikely to visit the redeveloped Cradle Mountain region? (choose as many as apply) 28 Transport preference & pricing
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey Use of Cable Car would be Transport would use to travel between the Visitor Centre & Dove Lake central to redeveloped CM % of those Likely-Certain to visit the redeveloped CM, n=494 − 86% would use it to travel between the visitors centre & Dove Lake… Valley Skyrail 86 − …some combining it with a walk/cycle Walk to/from Dove Lake 46 to/from the lake Cycle to/from Dove Lake 20 Cable Car considered good value − Cheaper than expected for 53% None of the above 2
Ticket pricing of Cable Car experience % of those Likely-Certain to visit the redeveloped CM, n=494
Much more than expected 2
More than expected 5
What I expected 40
Cheaper than expected 39
Much cheaper than I expected 14
Questions: If you were to visit Cradle Mountain, which of the following transport options Questions: The return trip Valley Skyrail experience will cost $10 for an adult and $30 for a would you use to travel between the Visitor Centre and Dove Lake? If you would like to catch 29 family. Are these ticket prices more or less than you would have expected? the Valley Skyrail to Dove Lake and walk the return trip, please select both options. Shift summary: Duration of stay
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey More likely to visit CM under # of nights would spend at Cradle Mtn region: Pre-Stimulus (% Likely-Certain to visit in next 2 yrs) redevelopment… Day trip 7 …and likely to stay longer 1 14 − More considering staying 4+ night in 2 35 redeveloped region (34%)… 3 23 4 10 − …than in current conditions (29%) 5+ 11 − Intended average length of stay up to 3.5 # of nights would spend at Cradle Mtn region: nights Post 'Today' Stimulus (% Likely-Certain to visit in next 2 yrs)
Day trip 3 1 8 2 32 3 28 4 15 5+ 14
Average # of nights would stay at Cradle Mountain # of nights would spend at Cradle Mtn region: Post 'Tomorrow' Stimulus (% Likely-Certain to visit in next 2 yrs)
Pre Stimulus 2.9 Day trip 3 1 8 Post 'Today' Stimulus 3.2 2 27 3 28 Post 'Tomorrow' Stimulus 3.5 4 16 5+ 18
Questions: How many nights do you think you would spend in the Cradle Mountain region? Questions: Given the redevelopment of the visitor experience at Cradle Mountain, how 30 many nights do you think you would spend in the Cradle Mountain region? Shift summary: Been to CM vs Not
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey Have visited Cradle Mountain Before Have never been to Cradle Mountain Likelihood of visiting CM in next 2 years (%) Likelihood of visiting CM in next 2 years (%) n=229 n=401
Pre Stimulus -2 -14 31 19 51 Pre Stimulus -1 -13 32 9 42
Post 'Today' Stimulus -2 -13 32 17 49 Post 'Today' Stimulus -2 -10 33 11 45
Post 'Tomorrow' Stimulus -1 -10 37 21 59 Post 'Tomorrow' Stimulus -2 -8 36 17 53
Not at all Not likely Very Likely Certain Not at all Not likely Very Likely Certain
Avg # of nights would stay at CM Avg # of nights would stay at CM n=229 n=401 Pre Stimulus 3.1 Pre Stimulus 2.8
Post 'Today' Stimulus 3.4 Post 'Today' Stimulus 3.2
Post 'Tomorrow' Stimulus 3.6 Post 'Tomorrow' Stimulus 3.4
Strong impact on those who have − …and the impact of the redevelopment was been before also greater Previous visitors also likely to stay longer if − Previous visitors have higher intention to − visit redeveloped Cradle Mountain.. visiting again
Questions: How likely are you to visit Cradle Mountain region in Tasmania on a leisure trip Questions: How many nights do you think you would spend in the Cradle Mountain region? in the next two years? Given the redevelopment of the visitor experience at Cradle Mountain, 31 Given the redevelopment of the visitor experience at Cradle Mountain, how many nights do how likely would you be to visit Cradle Mountain in the next two years? you think you would spend in the Cradle Mountain region?
New demand profile
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey
New demand = those who Age (%) Location (%) became intenders 18-24 years 6 NSW 34 After seeing the redevelopment 9 33 − 24 25-34 years 23 VIC − A range of demographics make 23 25 QLD 21 up new demand 35-44 years 18 24 Largely similar to total intenders 21 WA 14 13 10 − Though more new demand from 45-54 years 17 SA 3 the older age groups 6 55-64 years 17 New demand also more likely to have low 13 NT 3 (retirees) or very high income 1 65+ years 23 Slightly more likely from NSW, WA and NT ACT 1 16 1
Gender (%) Household income (%) Household situation (%) Less than $40k 24 33 19 Partner 34 48 $40k-$60k 15 27 Male 17 Partner & dependents 21 29 50 $60k-$80k 16 16 Alone 12 $80k-$100k 10 52 19 With parents 7 Female 10 8 $100k-$125k 11 50 Partner & adult children 5 $125k to $150 5 5 7 4 8 Single with dependents $150k to $200k 7 3 3 Flatmates 3 $200k to $250k 2 6 4 New demand (n=95) Total Intenders (n=354) $250k or more 22 Other 3
*NB: New demand = Not intending to visit current CM experience in next 2 years but 'Very likely' – 'Certain' under redevelopment. Intenders = 'Very likely' – 'Certain' to visit 32 redeveloped CM. Assessing incremental demand
Core assumptions − All potential visitors are assumed to be aware of the redeveloped Cradle Mountain − All purposes of visitor are assumed to convert at the rate measured in the research ►All international demand is assumed to convert at the rate measured for Interstate respondents − The results reflect visitors to Tasmania only, intrastate demand was not in scope ►Hence, any incremental demand from within Tasmania would be additional to the following estimates − Excluding the impact of the redevelopment, the region and Tasmania are assumed to hold share of national tourism demand (i.e. the Trend outlook) − The tested impact is assumed to reflect an opening date of January 2018 and tested demand is assumed to be fully realised by the YT Dec 2018 − The current mix of day and overnight visitors to the region is applied into the future ►Hence, any conversion of day visitors into overnight visitors would be additional nights over and above the following estimates − Base expenditure in Cradle Mountain is estimated as follows: ►For overnight visitors to the region, average nightly accommodation expenditure in Tas by Cradle Mtn visitors is applied to all nights spent in Cradle Mountain + 50% of average daily ‘other’ expenditure in Tas by Cradle Mtn visitors (excluding transport) ►For day visitors to the region, 50% of average spend per day (excluding accommodation and transport) is applied to all day visits to Cradle Mountain ►Expenditure per night / day is assumed to grow in line with inflation forecasts − Incremental expenditure scenarios are then applied: ►Scenario 1: Cable Car only. 83% would engage in Cable Car. At $10 per person = incremental $8.30 per person ►Scenario 2: Cable Car + additional F&B. 85% would engage with at least one of the visitors café, lounge bar, village events or Cradle Feast. At an assumed additional expenditure of $10 per person = incremental $8.50 per person (+$8.30 for Cable Car)
33 Visitors to Cradle Mountain
Significant incremental Total visitors to Cradle Mountain Interstate and International – All purposes of trip (000’s) - 12MMT visitor demand Derived by BDA from BDA AUSMO
− Redevelopment estimated to 300 Projected demand bring in 41k additional trips.. 280 with redevelopment − ..in addition to demand 260 provided by market growth 240 − Majority of additional trips 220
Thousands 200 are overnight Trend outlook 180 160 140 120
100
Dec 19 Dec 20 Dec Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec 18 Dec
Projected with 2018 projections Trend outlook Incremental demand redevelopment Total visitors 203.7k 244.4k 40.7k Overnight visitors 136.1k 163.3k 27.2k Day visitors 67.5k 81.0k 13.5k
34 Nights at Cradle Mountain
79k more nights in CM Total nights at Cradle Mountain Interstate and International – All purposes of trip (000’s) - 12MMT from redevelopment Derived by BDA from BDA AUSMO Projected demand − 29% more nights than would 425 with redevelopment otherwise be achieved 375 − Via from more visitors and increased length of stay 325 Resulting from the redevelopment 275
Thousands 225 Trend outlook
175
125
75
Dec 19 Dec 20 Dec Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec 18 Dec
Projected with 2018 projections Trend outlook Incremental demand redevelopment
Total nights 276.0k 355.2k 79.2k
35 Expenditure at Cradle Mountain
Scenario 1: Total expenditure at Cradle Mountain Interstate and International – All purposes of trip ($millions) - 12MMT − Additional spend from Derived by BDA from BDA AUSMO
100 incremental visits & nights.. Scenario 2: Projected $ with − ..plus Cable Car expenditure 90 redevelopment + Cable Car 80 and F&B expenditure − Substantial lift in regional 70 Scenario 1: Projected $ expenditure 60 with redevelopment + Cable
Millions Car expenditure 50 An additional $18m estimated in 2018 Trend outlook resulting from the redevelopment 40 30 Vast majority coming from overnight visitors 20 10 Scenario 2: 0
− Additional spend from
Dec 19 Dec Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec 18 Dec 20 Dec incremental visits & nights.. 08 Dec Projected with Incremental Projected with Incremental ..plus Cable Car spend & Trend − 2018 projections redevelopment demand redevelopment demand outlook additional F&B spend (scenario 1) (scenario 1) (scenario 2) (scenario 2) − Greater lift again in regional Total expenditure $50.9m $68.9m $18.0m $72.6m $21.7m Spend by expenditure $47.7m $64.3m $16.6m $67.4m $19.7m overnight visitors An additional $22m estimated in 2018 Spend by day resulting from the redevelopment $3.2m $4.5m $1.3m $5.2m $2.0m Again most from overnight visitors visitors
36 Incremental demand summary
Redevelopment Forecast incremental demand resulting from Cradle Mountain Redevelopment (at YT Dec 2018) provides an additional: − 41k visitors and 79k nights to Additional Additional Additional Additional expenditure in expenditure in the Cradle Mountain region Trips to CM Nights in CM CM CM − Scenario 1 = $18m in (scenario 1) (scenario 2) incremental expenditure Scenario 2 = $22m in − Total visitors 40.7k 79.2k $18.0m $21.7m incremental expenditure − Majority of new demand from overnight visitors Overnight 27.7k 79.2k $16.6m $19.7m visitors
Day visitors 13.5k n/a $1.3m $2.0m
37 Cable Car vs Shuttle Bus Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey Cable Car vastly preferred Impact on view of the Cradle Mountain redevelopment if Shuttle Bus replaced the Cable Car (%) over shuttle bus (83%) − 58% consider the redevelopment Much less appealing if shuttle replaced Skyrail 20 less appealing without Cable Car Less appealing if shuttle replaced Skyrail 38 − …and 38% would be less likely to visit Cradle Mountain Neither more or less appealing/ Not sure 26
More appealing if shuttle replaced Skyrail 8
Information: There is the potential for the Valley Skyrail not to be part of Much more appealing if shuttle replaced Skyrail the Cradle Mountain redevelopment. The Valley Skyrail could instead be 8 replaced with the existing shuttle bus service. The shuttle bus would operate as it does today, travelling between the Visitor Centre and a parking area and basic shelter near Dove Lake. The price of the shuttle service would be the same as the Valley Skyrail ($10 adult return, $30 Impact on likelihood of visiting redeveloped Cradle Mountain if Shuttle return for a family) and would operate when weather permits, whereas Bus replaced the Cable Car (%) the Valley Skyrail would operate year round in all weather conditions.
Cable Car vs Shuttle Bus: Option preferred as Much less likely to go if shuttle replaced Skyrail 12 part of the CM redevelopment (%) Less likely to go if shuttle replaced Skyrail 26
Valley Skyrail 83 Neither more or less likely/ Not sure 51
Shuttle bus 9 More likely to go if shuttle replaced Skyrail 5
Neither / not sure 8 Much more likely to go if shuttle replaced Skyrail 7
Questions: Which of these options would you prefer? If the Valley Skyrail was replaced with Questions: If the Valley Skyrail was replaced with a shuttle bus service, would you be more a shuttle bus service, how would this change your view of the redeveloped CM region? 38 or less likely to visit the redeveloped Cradle Mountain region? Intention if Cable Car replaced (New demand) Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey Cable Car major driver of Likelihood of visiting redeveloped Cradle Mountain in the next 2 years, for those unlikely to visit CM today new demand % of New Demand, n=95
− If the Cable Car was replaced with Not at all likely 0 the shuttle bus.. Not likely − ..only 14% of new demand stays 0 'Very likely' or 'Certain' to visit Likely 0 − Hence, 86% of incremental Very likely 93 demand is at risk Certain 7 43% now do not intend or aren’t sure and a Not sure 0 further 42% have shifted back to ‘likely’
Likelihood of visiting redeveloped Cradle Mountain in the next 2 years if Shuttle Bus replaced the Cable Car % of New Demand, n=95
Not at all likely 6
Not likely 31
Likely 42
Very likely 12
New demand = New Demand respondents were not intending to visit Certain 2 the current Cradle Mountain experience in next 2 years but became ‘very likely’ – ‘certain’ after seeing the redeveloped Cradle Mountain Not sure 7 concept stimulus.
Questions: Given the redevelopment of the visitor experience at Cradle Mountain, how Questions: If the Valley Skyrail was replaced with a shuttle bus service, how likely would likely would you be to visit Cradle Mountain in the next two years? 39 you be to visit Cradle Mountain in the next two years? Cable Car: Importance to redevelopment
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey Cable Car key to appeal Importance of Cable Car to appeal of redeveloped Cradle Mountain of the development % of respondents very likely-certain to visit in the next 2 years, n=148, % of New Demand, n=42* − 82% of total intenders rate importance 7 or above Total intenders New demand* 42% consider it 9-10 AVERAGE 7.8/10 AVERAGE 7.6/10 Very few consider the Cable Car 10 = Very unimportant to the appeal of the important redevelopment 9-10 42 9-10 36 − Cable Car is similarly important with New Demand i.e. those who became intenders after 7-8 40 7-8 43 being informed of the redevelopment
5-6 14 5-6 14
3-4 1 3-4 2
1-2 4 1-2 5 1 = Very unimportant
*Low sample size, indicative only. Sample derived from a recontacted subsample of the total interstate sample.
Questions: How important is the Valley Skyrail to the overall appeal of the redeveloped Cradle Mountain experience? 40 Cable Car vs Shuttle bus – Qualitative
Cable Car exciting, unique & major drawcard, Bus less perceived impact for small minority Cable Car the major driver for − Better value for money ►More fun then an old bus visitation ►Better views of the beautiful scenery, worth the money ►The rest of the development is really good, but the − More environmentally-friendly long term skyrail makes the difference ►The Skyrail may be more expensive to set up but would ►To be honest all the items are attractive but the Skyrail be cheaper and more environmentally friendly to run would be amazing for the area & visitors. Sounds brilliant. ►Skyrail would be a reason to visit again Shuttle Bus ►The skyrail was the most eye catching feature for me, − Lower perceived environmental impact without it my craving would drastically decrease ►It runs on roads already there, it won’t add to the ►We wouldn't spend as long there if this wasn't available destruction of the natural beauty − More exciting and unique with better views ►Less environmental impact. Although no transport would ►Climbing above the tree tops with a great view of the be better still - just keep the bus for emergencies and keep surroundings or on a shuttle bus - a bit of a no-brainer the tracks for walkers/hikers only ►A wonderfully unique scenic experience could be had. − May become too 'touristy' Without the Skyrail it is doubtful we would visit ►You will turn the place into just another tourist trap. The ►Having used skyrail in Qld, it is a more private and better beauty of the Tasmanian wilderness is because it's way to view the area. Also 360º photo opportunities unspoiled and undeveloped . What's next - carnival rides? ►More exciting and the view would be stupendous − Preferable for those with a fear of heights − Can see CM in all seasons and all weather ►I don't like heights! ►I would like to go in winter and see the snow ►If you hit bad weather and the bus does not operate, your entire 2 days are wasted Questions: Please briefly explain why you would prefer the Skyrail/Shuttle bus. Please briefly explain why you would be more likely/less likely to go if shuttle bus replaced Valley 41 Skyrail.
Influence of redevelopment (New Demand)
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Recontact Survey Of those who became intenders Influence of CM redevelopment on intended Tas trip of Cradle Mountain.. % of New Demand, n=42*
− ..after being informed of the redevelopment i.e. ‘New Demand’ for Cradle Mountain resulting Primary influence, unlikely to visit 12 from the redevelopment Tas otherwise − 12% said that development was the primary reason for visiting Tas − 67% were somewhat influenced by the redevelopment .. … but may have chosen to visit Tas anyway Some influence, may visit Tas anyway 67 − 21% said that the development did not influence their decision to travel to Tas Though still represent incremental for Cradle Mtn, i.e. would not visit Cradle without the redevelopment
No influence, likely to visit Tas anyway 21
New demand = New Demand respondents were not intending to visit the current Cradle Mountain experience in next 2 years but became ‘very likely’ – ‘certain’ after seeing the redeveloped Cradle Mountain concept stimulus.
*Low sample size, indicative only. Sample derived from a recontacted subsample of the total interstate sample. Questions: You indicated you were likely to visit Cradle Mountain in the next 2 years. Which of the following best describes that intended trip? 42
Incremental demand to Tasmania
Visitors to Cradle Mountain Influence of redevelopment Interstate and International (000’s) - 12MMT % of New Demand, n=42* Derived by BDA from BDA AUSMO Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey
250 41k incremental visitors to Cradle Mt Yes, I would most (day & overnight visitors) likely still travel to Tasmania in the next 84 200 2 years
Thousands 150 No, I would most likely 6.6k incremental not travel to Tasmania 16 visitors to
100 in the next 2 years Tasmania
Dec 10 Dec 15 Dec Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec 18 Dec 19 Dec 20 Dec
An additional 40.7k visitors are estimated to visit the Cradle Mt region − 16% of those would not travel to Tas if the redevelopment was not built Hence, 6.6k visitors are incremental to Tasmania
New demand = New Demand respondents were not intending to visit the current Cradle Mountain experience in next 2 years but became ‘very likely’ – ‘certain’ after seeing the redeveloped Cradle Mountain concept stimulus. *Low sample size, indicative only. Sample derived from a recontacted subsample of the total interstate sample. Question: If the proposed Cradle Mountain redevelopment was not built, would you still 43 travel to Tasmania in the next 2 years?
Seasonal demand
Current seasonal demand for CM Preferred month of travel to redeveloped CM: Total intenders % of inbound & interstate holiday overnight and day trips to CM – % very likely-certain to visit in next 2 years, n=148 2YT September ‘15 (n=2,000) Derived by BDA from CM Recontact Survey Derived by BDA from TVS
Monthly demand Monthly demand January 18 January 8 February 10 February 13 March 12 March 19 April 11 April 11 May 5 May 5 June 5 June 3 July 4 July 5 August 3 August 3 September 6 September 8 October 7 October 8 November 9 November 8 December 11 December 8
Seasonal demand Seasonal demand
Summer (Dec-Feb) 39 Summer (Dec-Feb) 29 Autumn (Mar-May) 28 Autumn (Mar-May) 36 Winter (Jun-Aug) 11 Winter (Jun-Aug) 11 Spring (Sep-Nov) 22 Spring (Sep-Nov) 24 More opportunity in shoulder seasons with Cradle Mtn redevelopment − March the most popular month for 19% of those intending to visit CM, Feb & Apr also popular Winter months are least popular, just 11% would visit in June-August − Demonstrates a potential for an increase in demand for shoulder seasons Note: Sample derived from a recontacted subsample of the total interstate sample. Question: What month do you think you would most likely visit Cradle Mountain? 44
Accommodation requirements
Indicative implications for accommodation requirements resulting from interstate / inbound demand − While specific supply requirements were not in the scope of this study, indicative implications of 79k additional visitor nights can be assessed − At 1.8 visitors per room 79k visitor nights provides 44k room nights per year or ~120 per day − To meet this demand an additional 160 rooms would be required (at 75% occupancy)
►Assuming: no impact on current accommodation and that all additional nights require roomed accommodation
45 Key point summary (1)
A positive tourism environment − National tourism demand growing with Tasmania very strong, gaining share of holidays ►Cradle Mountain now growing at least in line with total Tas, after losing share in recent years Cradle Mountain today is an appealing destination but lacks the triggers to unlock any substantial latent demand with existing experiences − Considered a unique destination with high appeal driven by an interest in remote, unique wilderness − However, no shift in intention was evident after viewing the current offer ►For many, the experience is just not appealing enough vs other destinations, others have been before and not interested in returning and some deem it unsuitable for their lifestage (older, families etc.) Very strong response to the redevelopment concept − Intention lifted substantially from Cradle Mtn today, and intended trips were longer − The redevelopment was perceived to enhance the core experience & engagement with the environment.. − ..while opening the destination to a wider pool of potential visitors and also providing past visitors with a reason to return
46 Key point summary (2)
All elements of redevelopment were well received but Cable Car was the standout − Cable Car had clearly highest level of raw appeal and intended engagement ►Highly appealing to a majority and the most preferred element for 65% (next was 7%) and > 80% would engage ►Provides the ability to observe the stunning natural environment in a comfortable, low impact way, added benefit of good value − Dove Lake shelter and pods were next most appealing, a peaceful means of enjoying the area − Other elements also contribute to the attraction of the redevelopment Significant incremental demand was evident from the redevelopment − The redevelopment tested is estimated to provide 41k visitors, 79k nights and up to $22m in incremental demand over and above the trend outlook
►This represents a ~30% increase in nights and > 40% increase in expenditure in the region − For 79% of those intending to visit, the redevelopment had some influence on the decision travel to Tasmania, 16% (7k) would be unlikely to travel to Tas if the redevelopment did not go ahead − Conversion of day visitors to overnight would provide additional demand ►Incremental demand has been applied equally to current levels of day and overnight visitation ►Any conversion of current day visitors into overnight visitors would provide additional nights and expenditure into the region
47
Intrastate findings
Recent demand trends Pre-stimulus − Past and future travel Cradle Mountain today (post-stimulus) − Core metrics and impact on intention − Barriers Cradle Mountain tomorrow (post-stimulus) − Core metrics and impact on intention − Details of intended Cradle Mountain trip − New Cradle Mountain experiences − Barriers − Transport preference and pricing expectation Incremental demand estimates Summary and implications
48
Tas intrastate travel demand
Aus intrastate demand Tas intrastate demand Strong growth for total Overnight (millions) - 12MMT Overnight (000's) - 12MMT 70 Derived by BDA from NVS Derived by BDA from NVS intrastate trips… 1.4 60 Total Tas demand up 10% 1.2 − 50 Total 1.0 Total year on year 40 0.8 Stronger than national growth of 6% 30 0.6 20 − Holiday demand weaker Holidays 0.4 Holidays Tas intrastate holidays -5% 10 0.2 − 0 0.0 Aus holidays up slightly 3%, but not
as strong as all purpose demand
Sep 08 Sep Sep 09 Sep 10 Sep 11 Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep
Sep 13 Sep Sep 09 Sep 10 Sep 11 Sep 12 Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep Day trips growing for 08 Sep Aus day trip demand Tas day trip demand Aus and Tas Daytrips (millions) - 12MMT Daytrips (millions) - 12MMT 200 Derived by BDA from NVS Derived by BDA from NVS − Tas growth stronger than 6.0 180 Total national growth 160 5.0 140 Total 120 4.0 100 3.0 80 60 2.0 Holidays Holidays 40 1.0 20
0 0.0
Sep 10 Sep 14 Sep Sep 08 Sep 09 Sep 11 Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep 08 Sep 09 Sep 10 Sep 11 Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep 15 Sep
Note: Cradle Mountain region defined as Sheffield-Railton in the NVS 49 Cradle Mtn overnight intrastate demand
Recent lift in trips & Cradle Mt intrastate trips Cradle Mt intrastate nights Overnight trips (000's) - 24MMA Overnight trips (000's) - 24MMA Derived by BDA from NVS Derived by BDA from NVS nights to Cradle Mt 60 160 However, CM outpaced by 50 Total 140 − 120 Total strong Tas holiday demand 40 100 30 80 Hence losing share of holiday trips 20 60 3.5% of intra Tas holiday trips include 40 Holidays a stopover in Cradle Mt… 10 Holidays 20 0 0 … down from 5% in ’10
Sep 11 Sep 14 Sep 14 Sep Sep 08 Sep 09 Sep 10 Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep 15 Sep 08 Sep 09 Sep 10 Sep 11 Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep 15 Sep
Average nights per trip in Cradle Mt Cradle Mt % of Tas intrastate trips Cradle Mt % of Tas intrastate nights Average no. nights per trip - 24MMA Share of intrastate overnight trips (%) Share of intrastate overnight trips (%) Derived by BDA from NVS Derived by BDA from NVS Derived by BDA from NVS 6 8 8
5 6 6 Holidays 4 Total Holidays 3 4 4 2 2 2 1 Holidays Total Total
0 0 0
Sep 08 Sep 10 Sep 08 Sep Sep 09 Sep 11 Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep 09 Sep 10 Sep 11 Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep
Sep 12 Sep Sep 08 Sep 09 Sep 10 Sep 11 Sep 13 Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep
Note: Cradle Mountain region defined as Sheffield-Railton in the NVS 50 Day trip demand refers to those who visited and stopped at Cradle Mt but did not stay overnight. Cradle Mountain day trip demand
Daytrips account for >70% of all Cradle Mountain intrastate day trips Daytrips (000's) - 24MMA Derived by BDA from NVS intrastate trips to Cradle Mt 120 Total − Total daytrips to Cradle Mt lifting over the 100 past year 80 Growth of 14% year on year 60 Similar trend for holiday daytrips 40 20 Holidays
0
Sep 12 Sep Sep 08 Sep 09 Sep 10 Sep 11 Sep 13 Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep Day trip share of total Cradle Mt intrastate trips Share of total intrastate trips: overnight trips & daytrips (%) Derived by BDA from NVS
90 Holidays 80 70 60 Total 50
40
Sep 08 Sep 09 Sep 10 Sep 11 Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep
Note: Cradle Mountain region defined as Sheffield-Railton in the NVS 51 Day trip demand refers to those who visited and stopped at Cradle Mt but did not stay overnight. Past & future travel (Pre-stimulus)
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey Most travel around Aus Others states considering travelling Likelihood of visiting Cradle Mtn to for leisure in the next 2 years (%) region in the next 2 years (%) − >70% travelled within Aus for leisure in past year Vic 64 Not at all likely 5 1/3 travelled overseas Not likely 14 Vic top considered interstate dest'n Qld 49 Likely 27 − High Cradle Mtn visitation & NSW 45 intention Very likely 28 SA 33 Over ¾ have ever visited Certain 20 Nearly ½ intend to visit within 2 years WA 28 Not sure − Short trips most likely 7 2 nights easily most preferred, 1 night NT 24 # nights would spend in Cradle Mtn and also popular ACT 19 % Likely-Certain to visit in next 2 yrs
Leisure travel over the last 12 months Ever visited the Cradle Mountain Day trip 14 (%) region in Tasmania (%) 1 17 2 42 Overnight within own state 73 Yes 79 3 14 Travelled to another state 72 4 9 No 21 Travelled overseas 33 5+ 3
Questions: Which of the following have you done in the last year? Which of the following Questions: How likely are you to visit Cradle Mountain region in Tasmania on a leisure trip states would you consider travelling to for leisure in the next 2 years? Have you ever visited 52 in the next two years? How many nights do you think you would spend in the Cradle the Cradle Mountain region in Tasmania? Mountain region in Tasmania?
Stimulus – Cradle Mountain today
53 Base appeal of Today's Cradle Mtn
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey ~½ had high awareness Previous awareness of the Cradle Appeal of the Cradle Mountain of Cradle Mtn experience Mountain experiences (%) experience (%) − 35% moderate awareness No awareness 2 Very unappealing 3
CM considered very Low awareness 16 Somewhat unappealing 6
appealing & unique Moderate awareness 35 Neither/ not sure 11 − After viewing stimulus on the CM experience… High awareness 30 Somewhat appealing 39 80% considered it appealing (41% very Very high awareness 17 Very appealing 41 appealing) 92% rated the experience unique (very Uniqueness of the Cradle Mountain unique for 30%) experience (%)
Not at all unique 1
Not very unique 1
Neither/ not sure 6
Somewhat unique 62
Very unique 30
Questions: Before reading this information, how aware were you of the depth and range of Questions: Thinking of all the different places you have travelled to, how unique would you the Cradle Mountain experience? How appealing is the Cradle Mountain experience? 54 say the Cradle Mountain experience is? Stimulus' impact on intention
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey Stimulus had some impact on Likelihood of visiting Cradle Mtn in the next 2 intention years, after seeing stimulus (%) − 7% more intend to visit (very likely / certain) Not at all likely 2 − Trips of 2 nights again most popular Not likely 11 Increase in intended 3 night trips Likely 25
Very likely 32 Certain 23 Not sure 6 Likelihood of visiting CM in next 2 years (%) # of nights would spend in Cradle Mtn % now Likely-Certain to visit in next 2 yrs
Pre Stimulus -5 -14 28 20 48 Day trip 11 1 15 2 39 Post 'Today' Stimulus -2 -11 32 23 55 3 20 4 11
Not at all Not likely Very Likely Certain 5+ 4
Questions: Having seen this information, how likely are you to visit Cradle Mountain in the next two years? How many nights do you think you would spend in the Cradle Mountain 55 region? Barriers to visiting today's Cradle Mtn
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey Over ½ of those not intending to visit Reasons why are you unlikely to visit Cradle Mountain, after seeing stimulus Cradle Mtn prefer other places % now Not at all - Not likely to visit in next 2 years, n=29*
− A high proportion (over 40%) have already Prefer to travel to other places 52 been and don't want to return A further 21% are interested, just not at the moment Been before and not interested in returning 41 Cost and lack of interest stop others from planning a visit 'Other' reasons include the expense and having no one to Would like to go, just not right now 21 travel with Just not interested 10
It costs too much to get there 10
It takes too long / too hard to get there 7
The climate is unappealing 7
Don't see the value in this holiday experience 7
Too far from where I live 3
Not enough things to do / activities I like 3
Other 17
*Low sample size. Indicative only. Questions: Which of the following are reasons why are you unlikely to visit Cradle Mountain? (choose as many as apply) 56 CM today intention – Qualitative summary
Wilderness, peace & proximity inspire many to visit and return Intending to visit CM − A desire to show CM to friends / relatives − Positive past experiences inspire many to return ►I have a cousin from UK coming to stay and I would want ►I love this place. Have been twice before and will to show him and his wife Cradle Mountain definitely be going again Close proximity increases attraction ►We travel to Cradle Mountain every winter for 2 nights − ► I live close by in Launceston so it is within easy access − Enjoy the wilderness and mountain scenery ►It is beautiful, affordable and close ►Favourite place to go, like the wilderness experience ►Good family experience, especially for the youngsters to Not intending to visit CM get more acquainted with nature and their environment − Already been, would prefer to go somewhere new ►See the snow and take the kiddies on an adventure ►Been before, nothing new or interesting to go back for ►To smell the mountain air and enjoy the scenery ►I live quite near Cradle Mt and have seen it enough, so ►It is pristine wilderness and has easy walks would prefer to travel to other parts of Tasmania first ►Love the many and varied walks one can do. The fact that ►I would prefer to visit places I have not been to it may snow at any time, even in summer makes it a fascinating area. Wildlife is a unique attraction. − A few put off by expense and development − A peaceful escape ►Too developed, expensive ►I love the peace and tranquillity that radiates there − However, many would still take visitors there ►It is a magical place, serene and just beautiful ►The only reason I'd go back again would be to show friends around
Question: Please briefly explain why you are likely / not likely to visit Cradle Mountain in the next 2 years 57
►
Stimulus – Cradle Mountain tomorrow
Note: abbreviated stimulus shown 58 Shift summary: Intention to visit
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey Redevelopment lifts Likelihood of visiting Cradle Mountain in next 2 years (%) Cradle Mtn intention further − An extra 8% very likely or certain to visit after seeing Pre Stimulus -5 -14 28 20 48 redevelopment stimulus 'Very likely' and 'certain' both gain ~4% after presentation of redevelopment stimulus
Post 'Today' Stimulus -2 -11 32 23 55
Post 'Tomorrow' Stimulus -4 -7 36 27 63
Not at all Not likely Very Likely Certain
Questions: How likely are you to visit Cradle Mountain region in Tasmania on a leisure trip Questions: Given the redevelopment of the visitor experience at Cradle Mountain, how in the next two years? Having seen this information, how likely are you to visit Cradle 59 likely would you be to visit Cradle Mountain in the next two years? Mountain in the next two years? Impact of CM redevelopment
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey Uniqueness of the redeveloped Redevelopment impact on likelihood Likelihood of visiting the redeveloped Cradle Mountain (%) of visiting the Cradle Mountain (%) Cradle Mountain in the next 2 years (%)
Not at all unique 1 Much less likely 3 Not at all likely 4 Not likely 7 Not very unique 4 Less likely 4 Neither more or Likely 19 Neither / not sure 12 27 less likely Very likely 36 Somewhat 43 More likely 41 unique Certain 27 Very unique 40 Much more likely 26 Not sure 8
Redeveloped CM also considered unique # of nights would spend in redeveloped CM region − Those rating CM 'very unique' rises from 30% to 40% % Likely-Certain to visit in next 2 yrs
Improvements impact on likelihood of visiting Day trip 10 − 2/3 more likely to visit because of the redevelopment 1 13 − With over 60% now intending a visit within 2 years 2 35 Longer 3 night trips continue to increase in popularity, though 2 nights still 3 25 chosen by over 1/3 and most common 4 12 5+ 5
Questions: Thinking of all the different places you have travelled to, how unique would you Questions: Given the redevelopment of the visitor experience at Cradle Mountain, how say redeveloped Cradle Mountain region is? Given the redevelopment of the visitor 60 likely would you be to visit Cradle Mountain in the next two years? Given the redevelopment, experience at Cradle Mountain, would you be more or less likely to visit Cradle Mountain? how many nights do you think you would spend in the Cradle Mountain region?
Redeveloped CM intention: Qual. summary
Enhances appeal, comfort & uniqueness while supporting Tas Intending to visit redeveloped CM − Supporting Tas economy ►I live in Tasmania and I like to support all good development − Going anyway but redevelopment enhances appeal ►A complete new experience for all, and of course jobs ►The revamp only adds to the experience, already had ►Anything revamped in Tasmania must be visited by plans to go to CM so it would be given even higher priority Tasmanians then shouted out to the world if it's fantastic. ►An enhanced experience - as long as the skyrail is done Tourism is all we have now sympathetically to the surroundings − A reason to return ►It's such a special place that I would go there even if the redevelopment didn't happen ►I think it is needed as I have been there many times. It would be something new to enjoy − Explore natural beauty with increased comfort ►Makes the whole experience much easier to see and Not intending to visit redevelopment includes all the creature comforts that I need − Concerns the natural beauty will be spoilt ►Very scenic and relaxing with adventure and warmth ►The total opposite experience to what I want at Cradle. It is ►It just looks so relaxing, there's plenty to do & it just looks already too commercial & there are enough adventure & flight like such a beautiful place. I really want to go there now! experiences for those who can't be bothered to go for a walk ►All that you are doing will allow a lot more people to see ►I go there to enjoy the natural beauty, not to be sucked into the real beauty of the region lavish man made surroundings which I would imagine you will − A unique experience be charging and arm and a leg to see ►What a unique experience. I have travelled to Switzerland − May be too expensive for Tas residents and used their skyrail but this Cradle Mt. development ►There is little incentive for locals i.e. Tasmanians to stay at would be as good if not better such expensive resorts in their own State. If locals were given ►Completely different, there is nothing in Tasmania like it discounted rates it may encourage more locals to visit
Question: Please briefly explain why you are likely / not likely to visit the redeveloped Cradle Mountain region 61
Redeveloped Cradle Mtn Experiences
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey Appeal of redeveloped Cradle Mountain experiences (%)
Overall redevelopment -6 -4 36 49
Cable Car -8 -1 24 55
Dove Lake Viewing Shelter -4 -5 35 44
Pod Shelters along the Dove Lake -6 -5 36 36
Alpine Village Guest Lounge Bar -5 -4 40 36
The Cradle Feast -5 -5 39 34
Visitor Centre Cafe -4 -4 49 34
Reimagined Visitor Centre -6 -2 42 33
Alpine Village Courtyard Events -6 -5 42 30
Very unappealing Somewhat unappealing Somewhat appealing Very appealing
Overall, the Cradle Mountain redevelopment has very high appeal: ‘very appealing' to ~1/2 and appealing to 85%. The Cable Car was rated 'very appealing' by the most respondents with 55% vs 44% for the Dove Lake Viewing Shelter in 2nd place, though similar overall appeal. Visitor centre and Alpine Village events least appealing overall but still appeal to over 70%. Questions: How appealing are each of the following newly developed experiences? 62 Cradle Mtn Experience Appeal Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey Cable Car stands out as Most appealing experience of the Least appealing experience of the CM redevelopment CM redevelopment clear top experience % of those Likely-Certain to visit redeveloped CM % of those Likely-Certain to visit redeveloped CM n=172 n=172 − Most appealing to 57% of those who intend to visit Cable Car 57 None of the above 26 Dove Lake Viewing Shelter and Cradle Feast top for nearly 10% Dove Lake Viewing Shelter 9 Reimagined Visitor Centre 12 − ¼ found none of the options least appealing The Cradle Feast 9 Cable Car 11 The Visitor Centre was voted least Guest Lounge Bar at the Reimagined Visitor Centre appealing by the most respondents… 6 Alpine Village 11 …though the Cable Car & guest Pod Shelters along Dove lounge received a similar response Events at the Alpine Village Lake Circuit Walk 5 10
Guest Lounge Bar at the The Cradle Feast Alpine Village 5 10
Pod Shelters along Dove Visitor Centre Cafe 5 Lake Circuit Walk 9
Events at the Alpine Village 4 Visitor Centre Cafe 6
None of the above 0 Dove Lake Viewing Shelter 3
Questions: Which of the following newly developed experiences do you find the most appealing? Which of the following newly developed experiences do you find the least 63 appealing?
Elements of the new visitor experience
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey
The Cable Car would be used Experiences would engage in, if visited Cradle Mountain by 76%... % of those Likely-Certain to visit the redeveloped CM, n=172 − …of those intending to visit CM Cable Car 76 The Dove Lake Viewing Shelter would also be highly utilised, by 63% The majority of visitors would engage with the Dove Lake Viewing Shelter 63 Visitor Centre Café Events at the Alpine Village lowest, though still Visitor Centre Café 59 41% Pod Shelters along the Dove Lake Circuit Walk 49
The Cradle Feast 49
Reimagined Visitor Centre 48
Guest Lounge Bar at the Alpine Village 47
Events at the Alpine Village 41
Other 2
Questions: If you were to visit Cradle Mountain, which of the following newly developed experiences would you engage in? 64
Elements of the new visitor experience
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey Viewing window is the most Most appealing elements of the new Dove Lake experience % that would engage in Dove Lake experiences if they visited Cradle Mountain, n=124 #1 Dove Lake element − With 56% finding it most appealing Large viewing window overlooking Dove Lake 56 Warm natural shelters are the next most Heated, low impact pod shelters around Dove Lake 45 appealing Warm viewing shelter crafted from natural materials 39 − Booking activities & park info most Cafe/kiosk at the Dove Lake Viewing Shelter 32 appealing Visitor Centre elements Picnic facilities at Dove Lake 32 Most appealing for 44-48% of those who Information about the local flora, fauna and history 26 would use the reimagined Visitor Centre Low impact space for contemplation 23 Children's area staffed by trained park rangers 20 One-on-one park ranger engagement 19 Dove Lake arrival terminal 12 Experiences would engage in, if visited CM None of the above 1 % of those Likely-Certain to visit the redeveloped CM, n=172
Cable Car 76 Most appealing elements of the reimagined Visitor Centre Dove Lake Viewing Shelter 63 % that would use the Visitor Centre if they visited Cradle Mountain, n=82
Visitor Centre Café 59 Booking activities such as horse riding, kayaking, quad bike tours, canyoning, cycle hire and guided walks 48 Pod Shelters along Dove Lake 49 National Park information 44 The Cradle Feast 49 Outdoor equipment, local handicrafts and souvenir space 37 Reimagined Visitor Centre 48 Guest Lounge Bar 47 Regional interpretation 35 Events at the Alpine Village 41 None of the above 2
Questions: If you were to visit Cradle Mountain, which of the following newly developed Questions: Which of the following elements of the reimagined Visitor Centre do you find experiences would you engage in? Which of the following elements of the new Dove Lake 65 most appealing? Please select as many as apply. mountain experience do you find most appealing? Please select as many as apply. CM Experiences – Qualitative Summary
Cable Car Favourable comparisons to NZ, Cairns − ►Have experienced similar in N.Z. and it was amazing Appeal -8 -1 24 55 ►The Skyrail in Cairns was a fantastic ride over the rain forests and would fit perfectly at Cradle Mountain − An exciting and unique adventure − Allows everyone to explore nature ►It all looks wonderful, but the skyrail would be very ►Would give young & old a chance to see our wilderness exciting. The view from it would be incredible. ►It's family-oriented and not expensive ►Exciting way to see the wilderness area in comfort − Some believe it is environmentally conscious… ►Fantastic idea. Never seen it done in Tassie ►A nice way to view the wilderness without scarring it ►Unique panoramic adventure & sightseeing opportunity ►Without stuffing up the local flora and fauna, I get to see − Affordable way to experience more of the Cradle some magnificent scenery Mountain wilderness − …though others are concerned about the impact ►It would be a whole new way of experiencing Tassie's on Cradle Mountain's natural beauty great Cradle Mountain and surrounds ►I do not want a suspension gondola moving overhead ►Getting a birds eye view but also being able to walk as and messing about with the wilderness of the park well, to be able to see it all ►People visit for the isolation and natural beauty. This ►A perfect way to see this beautiful lake. Fantastic idea! would spoil the amazing photos people travel there to take ►A fantastic concept which would be an added bonus for ►It would detract from the natural environment and make visitors. Getting a birds eye view for a moderate price. the experience too touristy ►It looks like the best value for money. Everything else ►Ugly, obtrusive, invasive looks like it will be overpriced − Fear of heights limits appeal for some
► I hate heights and can't cope with travel on these Very unappealing Somewhat unappealing Somewhat appealing Very appealing
Questions: Please briefly explain why you found [experience] the most appealing? Please briefly explain why you found [experience] the least appealing? 66
CM Experiences – Qualitative Summary
Dove Lake Viewing Shelter Pod Shelters along Dove Lake
Appeal -4 -5 35 44 Appeal -6 -5 36 36
− Modern, well-designed structure from which to view − Wonderful views and shelter from changeable the lake's natural beauty weather ►I think it would be wonderful to go there and just ►It is a great idea because the weather can be very experience the lake in all it's beauty in this way changeable and somewhat dangerous at times ►It looks so beautiful and you look like you're on the water ►It looks so nice to be in the shelters during winter time, if it ►Very modern and lovely, to me it looks as if I would get the was snowing all around best view there and it's very appealing to the eye ►They are different, there’s nothing else like it in Tas. ►A beautifully designed structure, fits the Park's character Wonderful views ►Seeing the lake from a purpose designed shelter – great! − Appeals to those who enjoy walking/hiking − More people would gain access to the environment ►I love going for walks ►Because it would make a special place more accessible ►These look amazing - these would be even better if you could stay overnight in one − Though some believe it detracts from environment ►They are essential for walkers ►It feels like it would detract or conflict with the natural-ness and beauty of the lake with it's sleek, modern design. − Some concerns about impact on surroundings and ►The least amount of man made structures around the whether they are necessary NATIONAL PARK, the better ►I think it might ruin the natural setting ►It seems a bit complicated and not necessary Very unappealing Somewhat unappealing Somewhat appealing Very appealing
Questions: Please briefly explain why you found [experience] the most appealing? Please briefly explain why you found [experience] the least appealing? 67
CM Experiences – Qualitative Summary
Guest Lounge Bar The Cradle Feast
Appeal Appeal -5 -4 40 36 -5 -5 39 34
− Relax and unwind after day of walking or in Gourmet dining featuring Tasmanian produce cold weather − ►Sounds gourmet - love to indulge in wine and fine dining ►It's nice to unwind with a cold drink after a long quiet walk in the wilderness ►You get to taste the fabulous Tasmanian food, showcasing produce from the local area ►It looks comfortable and cool so you can sit back and relax with a couple of mate and chill ►Lovely Tasmanian food and wine ►If it's cold you can stay warm and have a nice meal − A unique offer that would add to the natural ►Great place to relax with a drink after a busy day experiences, family friendly too ►To be able to get high quality food and drink would ►It's a most exiting concept that will add to the natural be great after a day of walking beauty a great draw card for Tasmania − Though others prefer outdoor / family activities ►Most diverse and interesting offering ►It sounds like a great family experience ►Prefer to be out and about doing things ►Looks great but not as family-focused, not outdoors − But some more interested in wilderness activities and peace than sharing a meal ►More interested in activities than eating expensive food ►When I go to the wilderness I go for the peace as much as the beauty. This does not promise to be peaceful Very unappealing Somewhat unappealing Somewhat appealing Very appealing Questions: Please briefly explain why you found [experience] the most appealing? Please briefly explain why you found [experience] the least appealing? 68
CM Experiences – Qualitative Summary
Visitor Centre Café Reimagined Visitor Events at Alpine Village Centre
Appeal -4- 4 49 34 Appeal -6- 2 42 33 Appeal -6 -5 42 30
− Somewhere to get information and − Entertaining end to day & chance − Inviting place to try produce, drink begin your experience to interact with other visitors coffee and rest ►It is the hub of where the true ►Sounds like a nice entertaining way ►It would be great to try some fresh amazing experience starts and finishes to finish a beautiful day outdoors Tasmanian produce at this cafe to ►A chance to interact with other showcase our produce ►Shows you things to do at Cradle Mtn people from interstate & overseas ►Great coffee and a place to rest − Modern aesthetic makes an impression ►It offers the opportunity to partake in ►It has a nice atmosphere and a good times with good fare friendly feel ►It's cool looking − Alternative option for those who ►It looks very inviting ►It looked amazing don’t like walking ►Seems like a very good idea for the − Though less interesting than other region ►I am not into bushwalking or anything aspects of the redevelopment too strenuous − Some feel it is 'just a café' ►There is so much to see up there, − But natural attractions more ►It's just a cafe and would probably be most of it is outside the centre appealing to some expensive ►A little boring compared to the other changes ►I am attracted more by the natural attractions the area offers
Very unappealing Somewhat unappealing Somewhat appealing Very appealing
Questions: Please briefly explain why you found [experience] the most appealing? Please briefly explain why you found [experience] the least appealing? 69
Recommendation of redevelopment
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey
Very strong intended advocacy for Recommend to interstate visitors % of those Likely-Certain to visit the redeveloped CM, n=172 redeveloped Cradle Mountain − 85% of those intending to visit very likely or certain to recommend to interstate visitors Not at all likely 0 Only 1% are unlikely to recommend the experience
Not likely 1
Likely 12
Very likely 44
Certain 41
Not sure 2
Questions: Given the redevelopment of the visitor experience at Cradle Mountain, how likely would you be to recommend this experience to friends or relatives visiting from 70 interstate? Barriers to visiting Cradle Mountain Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey Not being interested and preferring Reasons why unlikely to visit redeveloped Cradle Mountain region other places the major barriers… % now Not at all/Not likely to visit in next 2 yrs, n=22* − …for those not intending to visit the redeveloped Cradle Mtn experience (27%) I'm just not interested 27 − ‘Prefer other places’ and ‘Been before’ much There are other places I'd prefer to travel to 27 lower for redeveloped CM than CM today I would like to go, just not right now 23 'Other' reasons include spoiling the natural beauty with manmade structures and making CM too 'touristy' I have been to Cradle Mountain before and I am not interested in returning 18
It costs too much to get there 14
The climate is unappealing 9
I do not see the value in this holiday experience 9
I don't know enough about it 9
Too far from where I live 5
It takes too long / too hard to get there 5
Other 27
*Low sample size. Indicative only. Questions: Which of the following are reasons why are you unlikely to visit the redeveloped Cradle Mountain region? (choose as many as apply) 71 Transport preference & pricing
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey Cable Car preferred form of Transport would use to travel between the Visitor Centre & Dove Lake transport for the majority… % of those Likely-Certain to visit the redeveloped CM, n=172 − 76% intend to use the Cable Car between the Visitor Centre and Dove Valley Cable Car 76 Lake Walk to/from Dove Lake 42 Walking also popular, 42% would complete some of the journey on foot Cycle to/from Dove Lake 15
…and great value for money None of the above 1 − 64% find the Cable Car cheaper than they expected Ticket pricing of Cable Car experience % of those Likely-Certain to visit the redeveloped CM, n=172
Much more than expected 1
More than expected 3
What I expected 33
Cheaper than expected 51
Much cheaper than I expected 13
Questions: If you were to visit Cradle Mountain, which of the following transport options Questions: The return trip Valley Skyrail experience will cost $10 for an adult and $30 for a would you use to travel between the Visitor Centre and Dove Lake? If you would like to catch 72 family. Are these ticket prices more or less than you would have expected? the Valley Skyrail to Dove Lake and walk the return trip, please select both options. Shift summary: Duration of stay
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey Length of intended trip greater for # of nights would spend at Cradle Mtn region: Pre-Stimulus (% Likely-Certain to visit in next 2 yrs) redeveloped CM experience − Average nights increase to 2.7 Day trip 14 1 17 Compared to 2.4 pre-stimulus 2 42 − Initially 2-night trips dominated… 3 14 …with day trips & 1 night stays also popular 4 9 − After redevelopment stimulus… 5+ 3 …day trips & 1-2 night trips declined, 3-4 night trips rose # of nights would spend at Cradle Mtn region: Post 'Today' Stimulus (% Likely-Certain to visit in next 2 yrs)
Day trip 11 1 15 2 39 3 20 4 11 5+ 4
Average # of nights would stay at Cradle Mountain # of nights would spend at Cradle Mtn region: Post 'Tomorrow' Stimulus (% Likely-Certain to visit in next 2 yrs)
Pre Stimulus 2.4 Day trip 10 1 13 Post 'Today' Stimulus 2.5 2 35 3 25 Post 'Tomorrow' Stimulus 2.7 4 12 5+ 5
Questions: How many nights do you think you would spend in the Cradle Mountain region? Questions: Given the redevelopment of the visitor experience at Cradle Mountain, how 73 many nights do you think you would spend in the Cradle Mountain region? Shift summary: Been to CM vs Not
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey Have visited Cradle Mountain Before Have never been to Cradle Mountain Likelihood of visiting CM in next 2 years (%) Likelihood of visiting CM in next 2 years (%) n=165 n=43*
Pre Stimulus -5 -14 28 20 48 Pre Stimulus -2 -14 28 23 51
Post 'Today' Stimulus -3 -12 31 25 56 Post 'Today' Stimulus 0 -12 37 19 56
Post 'Tomorrow' Stimulus -4 -7 34 27 61 Post 'Tomorrow' Stimulus -2 -7 44 28 72
Not at all Not likely Very Likely Certain Not at all Not likely Very Likely Certain
Avg # of nights would stay at CM Avg # of nights would stay at CM n=165 n=43* Pre Stimulus 2.3 Pre Stimulus 2.6
Post 'Today' Stimulus 2.5 Post 'Today' Stimulus 2.5
Post 'Tomorrow' Stimulus 2.6 Post 'Tomorrow' Stimulus 2.7
Greater shift in intention for new − …and intend to stay slightly longer visitors − Though positive shift also observed with those who have been before − From same base, those who haven't been are more likely to visit with redevelopment… *Low sample size. Indicative only.
Questions: How likely are you to visit Cradle Mountain region in Tasmania on a leisure trip Questions: How many nights do you think you would spend in the Cradle Mountain region? in the next two years? Given the redevelopment of the visitor experience at Cradle Mountain, 74 Given the redevelopment of the visitor experience at Cradle Mountain, how many nights do how likely would you be to visit Cradle Mountain in the next two years? you think you would spend in the Cradle Mountain region?
New demand profile
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey
New demand = those who Age (%) Employment situation (%) became intenders 18-24 years 21 Work full time 31 − After seeing the redevelopment 14 39 24 25-34 years Work part time 31 − New demand predominantly 20 25 from young workers and retirees 7 35-44 years Retired 31 18-34 and 65+ age groups 17 21 10 Compared to total intenders… 45-54 years Looking for work 7 − 17 2 More likely to live with partner or parents 14 55-64 years Home duties 0 Have a household income under $80k 16 9 24 65+ years Other 0 15 3
Gender (%) Household income (%) Household situation (%) Less than $40k 26 34 23 Partner 28 45 $40k-$60k 22 21 Male 20 Alone 26 20 46 $60k-$80k 11 14 Partner & dependents 24 $80k-$100k 7 55 12 With parents 10 Female 7 5 $100k-$125k 8 54 Partner & adult children 7 $125k to $150 4 7 5 7 7 Other relatives $150k to $200k 7 5 0 Flatmates 3 $200k to $250k 11 7 3 New demand (n=29*) Total Intenders (n=132) $250k or more 0 2 Other 4 *Low sample size. Indicative only.
*NB: New demand = Not intending to visit current CM experience in next 2 years but 'Very likely' – 'Certain' under redevelopment. Intenders = 'Very likely' – 'Certain' to visit 75 redeveloped CM. Assessing incremental demand
Core assumptions for the intrastate incremental demand forecast − All potential visitors are assumed to be aware of the redeveloped Cradle Mountain − All purposes of visitor are assumed to convert at the rate measured in the research ►All international demand is assumed to convert at the rate measured for Interstate respondents − The results reflect visitors who live in Tasmania − Excluding the impact of the redevelopment, the region and Tasmania are assumed to hold share of national tourism demand (i.e. the Trend outlook) − The tested impact is assumed to reflect an opening date of January 2018 and tested demand is assumed to be fully realised by the YT Dec 2018 − The current mix of day and overnight visitors to the region is applied into the future ►Hence, any conversion of day visitors into overnight visitors would be additional nights over and above the following estimates − Base expenditure in Cradle Mountain is estimated as follows: ►For overnight visitors to the region, average nightly accommodation expenditure in Tas by Cradle Mt visitors is applied to all nights spent in Cradle Mountain 93% of average daily ‘other’ expenditure in Tas by Cradle Mt visitors (excluding transport)* ►This same proportion of average spend per day has also been applied to the region for all day trips to Cradle Mountain ►Expenditure per night / day is assumed to grow in line with inflation forecasts − Incremental expenditure scenarios are then applied: ►Scenario 1: Cable Car only. 76% would engage in Cable Car. At $10 per person = incremental $7.60 per person ►Scenario 2: Cable Car + additional F&B. 81% would engage with at least one of the visitors café, lounge bar, village events or Cradle Feast. At an assumed additional expenditure of $10 per person = incremental $8.10 per person (+$7.60 for Cable Car)
*87% of overnight visitors to Cradle Mt have a single stopover on their trip. These visitors are assumed to spend 100% of their daily ‘other’ expenditure in Cradle Mt. The remaining 13% are assumed to spend 50% of their daily ‘other’ expenditure in Cradle Mt. Hence, overall 93% of daily ‘other’ expenditure is spent in Cradle Mt 76 Visitors to Cradle Mountain
Incremental visitor Total visitors to Cradle Mountain Intrastate (overnight and day visitors) – All purposes of trip (000’s) - 24MMA Derived by BDA from BDA AUSMO / NVS demand is evident − Redevelopment estimated to 180 Projected demand with redevelopment bring in 18k additional trips.. 160 − ..in addition to demand 140 provided by market growth 120 Trend outlook − 14% additional demand 100 80
60
40
20
0
Dec 19 Dec 20 Dec Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec 18 Dec
Projected with 2018 projections Trend outlook Incremental demand redevelopment Total visitors 129.4k 147.3k 17.8k Overnight visitors 39.1k 44.5k 5.4k Day visitors 90.3k 102.8k 12.5k
Note: Cradle Mountain region defined as Sheffield-Railton in the NVS. 77 Nights at Cradle Mountain
23k more nights in CM Total nights at Cradle Mountain Intrastate (overnight and day visitors) – All purposes of trip (000’s) - 24MMA Derived by BDA from BDA AUSMO / NVS from redevelopment − 20% more nights than would 160 Projected demand with redevelopment otherwise be achieved 140 Via more visitors and − 120 increased length of stay 100 Resulting from the redevelopment Trend outlook 80 60
40
20
0
Dec 19 Dec 20 Dec Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec 18 Dec
Projected with 2018 projections Trend outlook Incremental demand redevelopment
Total nights 112.6k 135.5k 22.9k
Note: Cradle Mountain region defined as Sheffield-Railton in the NVS. 78 Expenditure at Cradle Mountain
Scenario 1: Total expenditure at Cradle Mountain Intrastate (overnight and day visitors) – All purposes of trip ($millions) - 24MMA − Additional spend from Derived by BDA from BDA AUSMO / NVS
35 incremental visits & nights.. Scenario 2: Projected $ with − ..plus Cable Car expenditure 30 redevelopment + Cable Car and F&B expenditure − Lift in regional expenditure 25 Scenario 1: Projected $ An additional $5.6m estimated in with redevelopment + Cable 20 Car expenditure 2018 resulting from the
redevelopment 15 Trend outlook Thousands Most from overnight visitors 10 Scenario 2: 5 − Additional spend from 0
incremental visits & nights..
Dec 15 Dec 18 Dec Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec 19 Dec 20 Dec − ..plus Cable Car expenditure 08 Dec Projected with Incremental Projected with Incremental & additional F&B spend Trend 2018 projections redevelopment demand redevelopment demand outlook − Greater lift in regional spend (scenario 1) (scenario 1) (scenario 2) (scenario 2) An additional $7.5m estimated in Total expenditure $19.9m $25.4m $5.6m $27.4m $7.5m 2018 resulting from the Spend by $15.7m $19.9m $4.2m $21m $5.3m redevelopment overnight visitors Spend by day $4.2m $5.5m $1.4m $6.4m $2.2m visitors
Note: Cradle Mountain region defined as Sheffield-Railton in the NVS. 79 Incremental demand summary
Redevelopment Forecast incremental demand resulting from Cradle Mountain Redevelopment (at YT Dec 2018) provides an additional: − 18k visitors and 23k nights to Additional Additional Additional Additional expenditure in expenditure in the Cradle Mountain region Trips to CM Nights in CM CM CM − Scenario 1 = $5.6m in (scenario 1) (scenario 2) incremental expenditure Scenario 2 = $7.5m in − Total visitors 17.8k 22.9k $5.6m $7.5m incremental expenditure
Overnight 5.4k 22.9k $4.2m $5.3m visitors
Day visitors 12.5k n/a $1.4m $2.2m
Note: Cradle Mountain region defined as Sheffield-Railton in the NVS. 80 Cable Car vs Shuttle Bus Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey Strong preference for Cable Impact on view of the Cradle Mountain redevelopment if Shuttle Bus replaced the Cable Car (%) Car over shuttle bus − ¾ prefer the Cable Car… Much less appealing if shuttle bus replaced cable car 27 …and over 50% find the redeveloped Cradle Less appealing if shuttle bus replaced cable car 25 Mtn less appealing without it A further 42% would be less likely to visit if Neither more or less appealing 28 they had to use the shuttle bus instead More appealing if shuttle bus replaced cable car 9 Much more appealing if shuttle bus replaced cable car 8 Information: There is the potential for the Valley Skyrail not to be part of the Cradle Mountain redevelopment. The Valley Skyrail could instead be Not sure 4 replaced with the existing shuttle bus service. The shuttle bus would operate as it does today, travelling between the Visitor Centre and a parking area and basic shelter near Dove Lake. The price of the shuttle service would be the same as the Valley Skyrail ($10 adult return, $30 Impact on likelihood of visiting Cradle Mountain redeveloped if Shuttle return for a family) and would operate when weather permits, whereas Bus replaced the Cable Car (%) the Valley Skyrail would operate year round in all weather conditions. Much less likely to go if shuttle bus replaced cable car 18 Cable Car vs Shuttle Bus: Option preferred as part of the CM redevelopment (%) Less likely to go if shuttle bus replaced cable car 24
Neither more or less likely 40 Cable Car 75 More likely to go if shuttle bus replaced cable car 7 Shuttle bus 12 Much more likely to go if shuttle bus replaced cable car 5
Neither / not sure 13 Not sure 6
Questions: Which of these options would you prefer? If the Valley Skyrail was replaced with Questions: If the Valley Skyrail was replaced with a shuttle bus service, would you be more a shuttle bus service, how would this change your view of the redeveloped CM region? 81 or less likely to visit the redeveloped Cradle Mountain region? Intention if Cable Car was replaced Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey New demand driven Likelihood of visiting Cradle Mountain redeveloped in the next 2 years, for those unlikely to visit CM today predominantly by Cable Car % of New Demand, n=29*
− Replacing the Cable Car with a Not at all likely 0 shuttle bus... Not likely − …risks 83% of incremental 0 demand Likely 0 − With only 17% now 'very likely' or Very likely 79 'certain' to visit Certain 21 34% shift back to ‘likely’, 49% do not intend Not sure 0 or are unsure
Likelihood of visiting Cradle Mountain redeveloped in the next 2 years if Shuttle Bus replaced the Cable Car % of New Demand, n=29*
Not at all likely 14
Not likely 21
Likely 34
Very likely 10
New demand = New Demand respondents were not intending to visit Certain 7 the current Cradle Mountain experience in next 2 years but became ‘very likely’ – ‘certain’ after seeing the redeveloped Cradle Mountain Not sure 14 concept stimulus.
*Low sample size. Indicative only. Questions: Given the redevelopment of the visitor experience at Cradle Mountain, how Questions: If the Valley Skyrail was replaced with a shuttle bus service, how likely would likely would you be to visit Cradle Mountain in the next two years? 82 you be to visit Cradle Mountain in the next two years? Cable Car vs Shuttle bus – Qualitative summary Unique & exciting, the all-weather Cable Car is the highlight Prefer Cable Car − Low environmental impact − Cable Car is unique & exciting versus a bus ride ►Buses get stuck in snow, leave toxic fumes ►A bus is a bus whereas a skyrail is a unique experience ►Less environmental impact ►Everyone has been on a bus. Nothing exciting. Skyrail, can't wait! − Very affordable ►Bring on the magical Skyrail. Such a wonderful idea. ►Skyrail is something different, at $10 I would do it for sure ►Much more comfortable and fun way of travelling ►I have seen it all at foot & bus level. The sky rail is new, trendy and when costs are taken in would cost similar − Novel perspective and opens up new areas ►Offers a unique perspective on the region, whereas the Prefer shuttle bus bus is more-or-less the same as walking, just faster − Less impact on the landscape & environment ►You go over the lake, its very scenic and much cooler ►The Shuttle bus already operates and is very popular. The ►Aerial views are better as you can see more skyrail would have a massive impact on the environment ►It would enable access to areas not available by bus and is a permanent fixture, whereas the shuttle buses can − The highlight of the redevelopment plans leave when not in use or if no longer profitable, unlike massive towers etc that would be required to build a skyrail ►Skyrail sounds like the best part of the redevelopment and one of the main reasons I would want to visit again ►Fits with the wilderness image, it's not as intrusive ►It is one of the highlights and would be great for the kids ►It won't spoil the landscape − All weather, all year round and safer too ►I may use the skyrail if it's built but would prefer it was left pristine, as is ►Wouldn't result in me being disappointed should the weather turn bad and result in cancellation of the bus − Fear of heights motivates some to choose shuttle ►Exceptional experience year round and safer in winter ►I'm not at all keen on heights so wouldn't go on a sky rail
Questions: Please briefly explain why you would prefer the Skyrail/Shuttle bus. Please briefly explain why you would be more likely/less likely to go if shuttle bus replaced Valley 83 Skyrail.
Cable Car: Importance to redevelopment
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey Cable Car vital to appeal Importance of Cable Car to appeal of redeveloped Cradle Mountain of CM redevelopment % of respondents very likely-certain to visit in the next 2 years, n=132, % of New Demand, n=29* − 86% of intenders rate importance 7 or above Total intenders New demand* Mean score is 8.2 AVERAGE 8.1/10 AVERAGE 8.1/10 37% consider it 9-10 10 = Very − Similar importance with New important Demand 9-10 47 9-10 45 Very few consider the Cable Car unimportant to the redevelopment 7-8 39 7-8 34
5-6 8 5-6 17
3-4 3 3-4 3
1-2 3 1-2 0 1 = Very unimportant
*Low sample size. Indicative only.
Questions: How important is the Valley Skyrail to the overall appeal of the redeveloped Cradle Mountain experience? 84 Incremental demand for Tasmania
Visitors to Cradle Mountain Replacement of overseas or interstate trip Intrastate overnight and day visitors (000’s) - 24MMA % of New Demand, n=29* Derived by BDA from BDA AUSMO / NVS Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey
180 160 17.8k incremental Replace a planned overseas 140 visitors to Cradle Mt 3 (12.5k day & 5.4 overnight) trip 120 4.3k incremental 100 visitors for 80 Tasmania 60 Replace a planned interstate trip 21 40 20 0 Not replace either a planned
overseas or interstate trip 76
Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec 18 Dec 19 Dec 20 Dec Dec 08 Dec
Additional 17.8k intrastate trips are forecast as a result of the development − Of those, 5.4k are overnight trips and 12.5k are daytrips − For 24% of the New Demand, the Cradle trip would replace an inter/OS trip Hence there are 4.3k incremental trips for Tasmania
New demand = New Demand respondents were not intending to visit the current Cradle Mountain experience in next 2 years but became ‘very likely’ – ‘certain’ after seeing the redeveloped Cradle Mountain concept stimulus.
Note: Cradle Mountain region defined as Sheffield-Railton in the NVS. Incremental intrastate Questions: Would this trip to Cradle Mountain in the next two years... visitors, all of whom would be replacing a planned interstate or overseas trip, are assumed to be 85 overnight visitors to Cradle Mountain. Seasonal demand
Current seasonal demand for CM Preferred month of travel to redeveloped CM: Total intenders % of intrastate holiday overnight & daytrips to CM – % very likely-certain to visit in next 2 years, n=132 3YT September ‘15 (n=236) Derived by BDA from CM Development Survey Derived by BDA from NVS
Monthly demand Monthly demand January 18 January 5 February 4 February 10 March 11 March 16 April 13 April 10 May 12 May 8 June 8 June 14 July 13 July 8 August 8 August 11 September 1 September 6 October 5 October 5 November 4 November 6 December 3 December 2
Seasonal demand Seasonal demand
Summer (Dec-Feb) 25 Summer (Dec-Feb) 17 Autumn (Mar-May) 36 Autumn (Mar-May) 33 Winter (Jun-Aug) 29 Winter (Jun-Aug) 32 Spring (Sep-Nov) 10 Spring (Sep-Nov) 17 March the most popular month for 16% of those intending to visit Cradle Mt − June, August, February & April also popular months, each with over 10% preference End of the year is least preferred − Demonstrates some potential increase in demand for shoulder seasons and winter
Note: Cradle Mountain region defined as Sheffield-Railton in the NVS Question: What month do you think you would most likely visit Cradle Mountain? 86
Accommodation requirements
Indicative implications for accommodation requirements resulting from intrastate demand − While specific supply requirements were not in the scope of this study, indicative implications of 23k additional visitor nights can be assessed − At 1.8 visitors per room 23k visitor nights provides 13k room nights per year or ~35 per day − To meet this demand an additional 46 rooms would be required (at 75% occupancy)
►Assuming: no impact on current accommodation and that all additional nights require roomed accommodation
87 Key point summary (1)
Intrastate travel has grown nationally and in Tasmania − Cradle Mountain demand is also growing, although holiday demand is lagging behind the strong demand trends for Tasmania Cradle Mountain today has strong appeal and intention − Even with reasonably high awareness and past visitation − Considered a unique and highly appealing destination ►Core wilderness and positive past experience driving the strong appeal A strong positive response to the redevelopment concept − Most respondents are more likely to visit as a result or the redevelopment and there was an increase in intention from Cradle Mountain today ►An increased intended length of stay was also evident − The redevelopment was generally perceived to add unique, highly appealing experiences and greater comfort to the destination, while providing benefits to Tasmania − The Cable Car was the stand out element of the concept particularly in terms of driving new demand to the region − Dove Lake developments also appealed strongly ►The visitor centre, lounge and café and events where also positively received
88 Key point summary (2)
The redevelopment would likely drive strong advocacy from locals − 85% of those interested are very likely or certain to recommend to interstate visitors The redevelopment is projected to provide incremental intrastate demand for the region − The redevelopment tested is estimated to provide 18k visitors, 24k nights and up to $7.5m in incremental demand over and above the trend outlook
►This represents a 20% increase in nights and 38% increase in expenditure in the region ►~4k of the incremental visitors were replacing an interstate or overseas trip Several potential sources of additional demand also exist − Incremental demand has been applied equally to current levels of day and overnight visitation
►But any conversion of current day visitors into overnight visitors would provide additional nights and expenditure into the region − Additional demand potential was also evident for Cradle Mountain today ►If the redevelopment was to make more Tasmanians aware of the existing experiences then more demand could be achieved
89 Execution imperatives – Inter & Intra
Incremental demand requires new, highly appealing and world class experiences The Cable Car is the core element of the Cradle Mountain concept and is central to incremental demand − Up to 85% of interstate/inbound incremental demand is at risk if the Cable Car is not part of the redevelopment − Similarly, up to 83% of intrastate incremental demand is at risk if the Cable Car is passed over − The delivery of the experience must also live up to the expectation of potential visitors Other elements must support this experience by delivering on key factors: − Enabling visitors to engage more enjoyably with a highly appealing natural environment − Providing comfort and accessibility for all to widen the potential audience − Delivering a rewarding experience with minimal impact on the pristine environment Awareness of experiences is also required to deliver incremental demand − Those interested in the region need to know of the experiences and their core consumer benefits − Positive word of mouth via experience delivery is vital, content & digital asset development is key
90 Appendix
Cradle Mountain performance Accommodation requirement summary Combined demand forecast Incremental demand summary
91 Cradle Mtn share of Tas demand
Cradle Mt share of trips Cradle Mt % of Tas interstate trips Cradle Mt % of Tas inbound trips Share of interstate holiday trips to Tas Share of inbound holiday trips to Tas (%) – 12MMT (%) – 12MMT down over past 5 yrs Derived by BDA from NVS Derived by BDA from NVS 40 60 CM % of interstate trips 55 − 35 25% 50 38% down to 25% 30 45 From 30% pre-2012 25 40 35 Some improvement over the past 2 20 30 years though 15 25 − Inbound share trend similar 10 20
Down by 10%, from 48% to 38%
Sep 14 Sep Sep 08 Sep 09 Sep 10 Sep 11 Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep 15 Sep
Sep 10 Sep Sep 09 Sep 11 Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep over five years, though now lifting 08 Sep − Intrastate share weaker Cradle Mountain % of Tas Intrastate Steady losses over the past 3 years Share of intrastate holiday trips, day & overnight trips (%) – 24MMA Derived by BDA from TVS 6 5 3% 4 3 2 1
0
Sep 11 Sep Sep 08 Sep 09 Sep 10 Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep
Note: Cradle Mountain region defined as Sheffield-Railton in the NVS. 92 Trips to Cradle Mountain include day trips and overnight visitors Visitors to Cradle Mountain
Incremental visitor Total visitors to Cradle Mountain Interstate, international and intrastate (overnight and day visitors) – All purposes of trip demand (000’s) – Annual volume Derived by BDA from BDA AUSMO / TVS / NVS 500 − Redevelopment estimated to Projected demand bring in 59k additional trips.. 450 with redevelopment − ..in addition to demand 400 provided by market growth 350 300 − 18% additional demand Trend outlook 250 200 150 100 50
0
Dec 19 Dec 20 Dec Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec 18 Dec
Projected with 2018 projections Trend outlook Incremental demand redevelopment Total visitors 333.1k 391.6k 58.6k Overnight visitors 175.2k 207.8k 32.6k Day visitors 157.9k 183.8k 26k
Note: Cradle Mountain region defined as Sheffield-Railton in the NVS. 93 Nights at Cradle Mountain
102k additional nights Total nights at Cradle Mountain Interstate, international and intrastate (overnight and day visitors) – All purposes of trip in Cradle Mountain (000’s) – Annual volume Derived by BDA from BDA AUSMO / TVS / NVS − 26% more nights than would 600 Projected demand with redevelopment otherwise be achieved 500 − Resulting from more visitors and increased length of stay 400 Trend outlook 300
200
100
0
Dec 19 Dec 20 Dec Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec 18 Dec
Projected with 2018 projections Trend outlook Incremental demand redevelopment
Total nights 388.6k 490.7k 102.1k
Note: Cradle Mountain region defined as Sheffield-Railton in the NVS. 94 Expenditure at Cradle Mountain
Scenario 1: Total expenditure at Cradle Mountain Interstate, international and intrastate (overnight and day visitors) – All purposes of trip − Additional spend from ($millions) – Annual volume Derived by BDA from BDA AUSMO / TVS / NVS Scenario 2: Projected $ with incremental visits & nights.. 120 redevelopment + Cable Car − ..plus Cable Car expenditure 100 and F&B expenditure Lift in regional expenditure Scenario 1: Projected $ − 80 with redevelopment + An additional $23.6m estimated in Cable Car expenditure 2018 resulting from the 60 Trend outlook redevelopment Thousands 40 Most from overnight visitors Scenario 2: 20 − Additional spend from 0
incremental visits & nights..
Dec 19 Dec Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec 18 Dec 20 Dec − ..plus Cable Car expenditure 08 Dec Projected with Incremental Projected with Incremental & additional F&B spend Trend 2018 projections redevelopment demand redevelopment demand outlook − Greater lift in regional spend (scenario 1) (scenario 1) (scenario 2) (scenario 2) An additional $29.2m estimated in Total expenditure $70.8m $94.3m $23.6m $100.0m $29.2m 2018 resulting from the Spend by $63.1m $84.2m $20.8m $88.4m $25.0m redevelopment overnight visitors Spend by day $7.4m $10.0m $2.7m $11.6m $4.2m visitors
Note: Cradle Mountain region defined as Sheffield-Railton in the NVS. 95 Incremental demand summary
Redevelopment Forecast incremental demand resulting from Cradle Mountain Redevelopment (at YT Dec 2018) provides an additional:
− 59k visitors and 102k nights Additional Additional Additional Additional expenditure in expenditure in to the Cradle Mtn region Trips to CM Nights in CM CM (scenario 1) CM (scenario 2) − Scenario 1 = $23.6m in incremental expenditure Total 58.6k 102.1k $23.6m $29.2m − Scenario 2 = $29.2m in visitors incremental expenditure Overnight 5.4k 22.9k $4.2m $5.3m intrastate visitors
Day 12.5k n/a $1.4m $2.2m intrastate visitors
Overnight interstate & 27.2k 79.2k $16.6m $19.7m inbound visitors
Day Interstate & 13.5k n/a $1.3m $2.0m inbound visitors
Note: Cradle Mountain region defined as Sheffield-Railton in the NVS. 96 Accommodation requirement summary
Indicative implications for accommodation requirements − While specific supply requirements were not in the scope of this study, indicative implications of 79k additional interstate/international and 23k intrastate visitor nights can be assessed Accommodation requirements for interstate and international − At 1.8 visitors per room 79k visitor nights provides 44k room nights per year or ~120 per day − To meet this demand an additional 160 rooms would be required (at 75% occupancy) ►Assuming: no impact on current accommodation and that all additional nights require roomed accommodation Accommodation requirements for intrastate − At 1.8 visitors per room 23k visitor nights provides 13k room nights per year or ~35 per day − To meet this demand an additional 46 rooms would be required (at 75% occupancy) ►Assuming: no impact on current accommodation and that all additional nights require roomed accommodation As a result of the Cradle Mountain redevelopment, a total estimate of 206 rooms would be required to meet the additional demand
97 Estimated impact of Tas incremental demand
Incremental demand for Tasmania
6.6k incremental interstate & international visitors 4.3k incremental intrastate visitors for Tasmania to Tasmania
Expenditure: Expenditure: Applying average spend per person of $3,200 in Tasmania by current Cradle Applying average spend per person of $420 in Tasmania by current Cradle Mountain visitors, an additional $21 million is estimated to result from Mountain visitors, an additional $2 million is estimated to result from incremental visitors to Tasmania. incremental visitors for Tasmania.
Nights spent in Tasmania: Nights spent in Tasmania: Applying average length of stay of 13 nights in Tasmania by current Cradle Applying average length of stay of 3.2 nights in Tasmania by current Cradle Mountain visitors, an additional 84k nights are estimated to result from Mountain visitors, an additional 14k nights are estimated to result from incremental visitors to Tasmania. incremental visitors for Tasmania.
Other regional visits: Other regional visits: Applying average number of destinations visited of 4.2 other regions visited by Applying average number of destinations visited of 0.2 other regions visited by current Cradle Mountain visitors, other regions in Tasmania are estimated to current Cradle Mountain visitors, other regions in Tasmania are estimated to gain an additional 28k visits resulting from the incremental visitors to gain an additional 1k visits resulting from the incremental visitors for Tasmania. Tasmania.
Note: Current interstate & inbound behaviour by Cradle Mountain visitors is derived from overnight visitors as measured in the TVS. Current intrastate behaviour by Cradle Mountain 98 visitors is derived from overnight visitors as measured in the NVS Disclaimer Notice
The information contained in this report is based upon client instructions and market research data supplied by third parties. Neither BDA or any third party provide, warrant or represent that any of the data is accurate or comprehensive, nor does BDA or a third party provide, warrant or represent that forecasts will be realised, since the achievement of results forecast depend upon matters beyond BDA or third party control. The conclusions and forecasts, if any, contained in this report are not representations of fact, but are opinions formed by BDA and provided in good faith on the basis of your instructions and the data obtained by us. Accordingly, we do not accept liability for any loss or damage suffered by you as a result of any of the conclusions, predictions or outcomes in this report not being achieved. BDA is not liable for any loss or damage arising directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance by any third party on any information contained in this report.
99