Cradle Mountain Demand Potential Assessment February 2016 Contents Introduction Interstate findings Intrastate findings Overall execution imperatives Appendix 2 Background and objectives Background − Cradle Mountain is a primary gateway to the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area − It has been identified that the region would benefit from ‘precinct revitalisation’, hence the development a Cradle Mountain Revitalisation Master Plan has been proposed − BDA was commissioned to undertake a consumer demand assessment to provide input to the Master Plan, in the form of a Cradle Mountain Demand Potential Assessment ►The demand potential assessment included online surveys in both interstate and intrastate markets Primary objectives − To provide consumer feedback in relation to the Cradle Mountain Master Plan concept − To provide estimates of potential incremental demand for the region resulting from the redevelopment − To provide execution imperatives for the Cradle Mountain Master Plan − To assess potential incremental benefit for Tasmania from the development 3 Fieldwork BDA conducted the research via online surveys − Interstate sample: ►644 interstate residents were surveyed, all of whom were considering visiting Tasmania for a holiday in the next 2 years • For the purposes of the demand projections international demand is assumed to convert in line with the tested interstate market ►A subset of 208 interstate residents were later recontacted to provide additional outputs, all of whom had previously indicated that they were likely to visit Cradle Mountain − Intrastate sample: ►211 Tasmanian residents were surveyed Survey structure − Respondents were exposed to stimulus of the Cradle Mountain experience today, then the Cradle Mountain Master Plan concept − Responses and intended behaviour measured for each element of the concept 4 Interstate findings Recent demand trends Pre-stimulus − Past and future travel Cradle Mountain today (post-stimulus) − Core metrics and impact on intention − Barriers Redeveloped Cradle Mountain (post-stimulus) − Core metrics and impact on intention − Details of intended Cradle Mountain trip − New Cradle Mountain experiences − Barriers − Transport preference and pricing expectation Incremental demand estimates Summary and implications 5 Australia travel demand Aus Interstate demand Aus Inbound demand Steady growth in Aus Overnight (millions) - 12MMT Overnight (millions) - 12MMT overnight trips Derived by BDA from NVS Derived by BDA from IVS − Both interstate & inbound 30 7 Total demand up 7% year on year Total Interstate holidays growing but not as 6 25 strongly, up 2% year on year 5 20 4 Holidays 15 3 Holidays 10 2 5 1 0 0 Jun 13 Jun Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun 14 Jun 15 Jun Jun 12 Jun Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 13 Jun 14 Jun 15 Jun 6 Tas travel demand Tas Interstate demand Tas Inbound demand Total Tas demand Overnight (000's) - 12MMT Overnight (000's) - 12MMT growing in line with Aus Derived by BDA from TVS Derived by BDA from TVS 1200 180 Total 160 Total − Total Interstate growing 6% 1000 140 800 120 year on year, inbound 7% 100 Both largely in line with national 600 Holidays 80 400 60 Holidays trends, hence share is steady 40 Tas holiday demand 200 20 Thousands 0 Thousands 0 very strong Jun 14 Jun Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Jun 15 Jun Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Jun 14 Jun 15 Jun − Interstate growing 17% year 10 Jun on year, Inbound 11% Tas % of Aus Interstate Tas % of Aus Inbound Share of interstate trips (%) Share of inbound (%) − Both gaining share of Aus Derived by BDA from TVS / NVS Derived by BDA from TVS / IVS demand 6 Holidays 4.0 Holidays 5 3.5 3.0 4 2.5 3 2.0 Total Total 2 1.5 1.0 1 0.5 0 0.0 Jun 08 Jun 15 Jun Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Jun 14 Jun Jun 12 Jun Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 13 Jun 14 Jun 15 Jun 7 Cradle Mountain overnight demand Cradle Mtn demand Cradle Mountain Interstate demand Cradle Mountain Inbound demand Overnight (000's) - 12MMT Overnight (000's) - 12MMT also growing strongly Derived by BDA from TVS Derived by BDA from TVS 100 Total 40 Total − Interstate & Inbound both up 80 over 20% year on year 60 Holidays 20 Holidays And trending similarly 40 Nearly all trips are holidays 20 − Share of Tas trips recovering Thousands 0 0 from recent dip Early growth in recent cycle was Jun 13 Jun Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun 14 Jun 15 Jun Jun 14 Jun Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Jun 15 Jun largely to Hobart.. ..but regional areas (including Cradle Cradle Mountain % of Tas Interstate Cradle Mountain % of Tas Inbound Mtn) now lifting strongly Share of interstate trips (%) Share of inbound (%) Derived by BDA from TVS Derived by BDA from TVS 25 40 Holidays 35 Holidays 20 30 15 25 20 10 15 Total 5 10 Total 5 0 0 Jun 14 Jun 08 Jun Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Jun 15 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Jun 14 Jun 15 Jun 8 Cradle Mountain day trip demand Interstate day trip Cradle Mountain Interstate day trips Cradle Mountain Inbound day trips Day trips (000's) - 12MMT Day trips (000's) - 12MMT demand steady Derived by BDA from TVS Derived by BDA from TVS 60 Total 18 Not as strong as overnight, 16 Total − 14 hence day trips % is down 40 12 10 8 Holidays Inbound day trips 20 Holidays 6 4 growing strongly 2 0 − Largely in line with overnight 0 Jun 12 Jun Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 13 Jun 14 Jun 15 Jun demand 08 Jun Jun 14 Jun Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Jun 15 Jun Day trip share of total CM Interstate Day trip share of total CM Inbound Share of interstate trips (%) Share of inbound (%) Derived by BDA from TVS Derived by BDA from TVS 50 45 Total 45 40 Holidays 35 40 30 35 25 Holidays 30 20 25 15 10 20 Total 5 15 0 Day trip demand refers to those who visited and Jun 14 Jun 08 Jun Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Jun 15 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Jun 14 Jun 15 Jun stopped at Cradle Mountain but did not stay overnight 08 Jun 9 Past & future travel (Pre-stimulus) Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey Widely travelled States considering travelling to for Likelihood of visiting Cradle Mtn leisure in the next 2 years (%) region in the next 2 years (%) − ¾ have travelled intrastate, 70% interstate and ½ OS Tas 100 Not at all likely 1 − 100% considering visiting Qld 68 Not likely 13 Tas in next 2 years (by def'n) Vic 64 Likely 31 Big eastern states also considered by ~1/3, other slower NSW 64 Very likely 32 − 36% have been to Cradle WA 57 Certain 13 Mountain before SA 51 Not sure 10 − 45% intend to visit Cradle in NT 45 the next two years # nights would spend in Cradle Mtn % Likely-Certain to visit in next 2 yrs i.e. very likely or certain to visit ACT 39 Leisure travel over the last 12 months Ever visited the Cradle Mountain Day trip 7 (%) region in Tasmania (%) 1 14 2 35 Overnight within own state 75 Yes 36 3 23 Travelled to another state 70 4 10 No 64 Travelled overseas 52 5+ 11 Questions: Which of the following have you done in the last year? Which of the following Questions: How likely are you to visit Cradle Mountain region in Tasmania on a leisure trip states would you consider travelling to for leisure in the next 2 years? Have you ever visited 10 in the next two years? How many nights do you think you would spend in the Cradle the Cradle Mountain region in Tasmania? Mountain region in Tasmania? Stimulus – Cradle Mountain today 11 Base appeal of Today's Cradle Mtn Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey 52% had No to Low Previous awareness of the Cradle Appeal of the Cradle Mountain prior awareness of CM Mountain experiences (%) experience (%) rd − 1/3 were moderately aware, No awareness 23 Very unappealing 4 only 15% high/very high Low awareness 29 Somewhat unappealing 3 After being shown CM Moderate awareness 34 Neither/ not sure 7 experience stimulus… High awareness Somewhat appealing − …>85% found it appealing 10 42 With 44% rating it 'very appealing' Very high awareness 5 Very appealing 44 CM experience generally considered to be unique Uniqueness of the Cradle Mountain experience (%) − 34% rated it 'very unique'… − …while 57% said it was just Not at all unique 0 'somewhat unique' Not very unique 1 Neither/ not sure 7 Somewhat unique 57 Very unique 34 Questions: Before reading this information, how aware were you of the depth and range of Questions: Thinking of all the different places you have travelled to, how unique would you the Cradle Mountain experience? How appealing is the Cradle Mountain experience? 12 say the Cradle Mountain experience is? Stimulus impact on intention Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey Minimal impact on intention to visit Likelihood of visiting Cradle Mtn in the next 2 years, after seeing stimulus (%) − While CM was considered appealing, intention to visit is largely unchanged Not at all likely 2 − Again, a 2-3 nights the most preferred length Not likely 11 of stay Likely 31 Very likely 32 Certain 13 Not sure 11 Likelihood of visiting CM in next 2 years (%) # of nights would spend in Cradle Mtn % now Likely-Certain to visit in next 2 yrs Pre Stimulus -1 -13 32 13 45 Day trip 3 1 8 2 32 Post 'Today' Stimulus -2 -11 32 13 46 3 28 4 15 Not at all Not likely Very Likely Certain 5+ 14 Questions: Having seen this information, how likely are you to visit Cradle Mountain in the next two years? How many nights do you think you would spend in the Cradle Mountain 13 region? Barriers to visiting today's Cradle Mtn Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey Amongst those unlikely to