Palaeofire Activity in Western Tasmania: Climate Drivers and Land-Cover Changes
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Palaeofire activity in western Tasmania: climate drivers and land-cover changes MICHELA MARIANI (ORCID: 0000-0003-1996-3694) Thesis submitted in total fulfilment of the requirements of the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY November 2017 School of Geography Faculty of Science The University of Melbourne I II Al mio nonno Battista, La tua malattia ha cancellato il mio nome nella tua memoria, Ma tu rimarrai sempre nei miei ricordi migliori …come quando andavamo a funghi a Valle …o quando giocavamo a carte i pomeriggi d’estate …o quando mi stringevi la mano e mi raccontavi le tue storie. Per sempre con me. To my grandpa Battista, Your illness took my name away from your mind, But you will always be in my best memories …like when we used to go mushroom-hunting in the mountains …or when we used to play cards on summer afternoons …or when you used to hold my hand and tell me your stories. Forever with me. III Abstract Under the current changing climatic regime, in which wildfires are predicted to increase in frequency and magnitude, it is important we gain a better understanding on past climatic trends and fire activity to properly manage fires and landscapes, preserve valuable natural ecosystems and protect human lives and properties. Fire activity is especially projected to increase in temperate regions, such as Australia’s southeast. In this context, western Tasmania represents a key region where the environmental impacts of wildfires can be disastrous for the remnant pockets of fire- sensitive vegetation. Climate influence on fire activity and vegetation dynamics operates at multiple time- scales, from inter-annual to multi-millennial. Given the time limitation of historical records, we need to look at long-term records to gain a better understanding on what modulates fire activity and how changes in fire regimes influence ecosystem dynamics. This PhD project aimed to a) identify the climate drivers of short- and long-term fire variability in western Tasmania and b) quantify climate- and fire- driven vegetation changes in this region throughout the Holocene. To understand the short-term drivers of fire activity in western Tasmania, I explored the relationship between the main climate modes of the Southern Hemisphere and a documentary record of fire occurrence from this region. This analysis suggested that the Southern Annual Mode (SAM) -an index for the position and strength of SWW- is strongly correlated with inter-annual fire activity across western Tasmania during the last 25 years. Moreover, the persistent positive trend in SAM recorded during the last 500 years was found to be tightly coupled to increased biomass burning within the same region. IV To understand the long-term landscape changes in western Tasmania, I combined high resolution pollen and charcoal analyses, coupled with recently developed mathematical modelling of pollen dispersal and productivity. Within this Thesis, I applied pollen dispersal models to calibrate the pollen-vegetation relationship for the first time in Australia. This method involves two steps: (1) a modern pollen analysis coupled with distance-weighted vegetation data to calibrate the present-day pollen-vegetation relationships and (2) an application of these relationships to a fossil pollen record to produce past vegetation cover estimates. The application of pollen dispersal models proved the biases inherent in previous interpretations of pollen spectra from western Tasmania. Specifically, the results from these analyses showed that this region was mostly dominated by treeless moorland vegetation, supporting the identification of western Tasmania as a cultural landscape. Moreover, my results showed that land-cover changes throughout the Holocene occurred in response to climatic change and a shift in fire regimes due to ENSO/SWW interactions. V Declaration This is to certify that: I. the Thesis comprises only my original work towards the PhD, II. due acknowledgement has been made in the text to all other material if and when used, III. the Thesis is less than 100,000 words in length, exclusive of tables, maps, bibliographies and appendices. VI Publications arising from this PhD Thesis Chapter 3. Mariani M. & Fletcher M.-S. (2016) The Southern Annular Mode determines inter- annual and centennial-scale fire activity in temperate southwest Tasmania, Australia. Geophysical Research Letters, 43, 1702–1709. Chapter 4. Mariani M. & Fletcher M.-S. (2017) Long-term climate dynamics in the extra-tropics of the South Pacific revealed from sedimentary charcoal analysis. Quaternary Science Reviews, 173, 181-192. Chapter 5. Mariani M., Connor S.E., Theuerkauf M., Kuneš P., & Fletcher M.-S. (2016) Testing quantitative pollen dispersal models in animal-pollinated vegetation mosaics: An example from temperate Tasmania, Australia. Quaternary Science Reviews, 154, 214– 225. Chapter 6. Mariani M., Connor S.E., Fletcher M.-S., Theuerkauf M., Kuneš P., Jacobsen G., Saunders K.M., Zawadzki A. (2017) How old is the Tasmanian cultural landscape? A test of landscape openness using quantitative land-cover reconstructions. Journal of Biogeography, 10, 2410–2420. VII Acknowledgement of Collaboration I hereby certify that part of the work included in this Thesis was performed in collaboration with other researchers. Below I have outlined the extent of collaboration, with whom and under what auspices. Most charcoal records (11/13) used for the multi-site compilations presented in Chapter 3 and 4 were produced prior this PhD project by different analysts and were made available to me by my principal supervisor, Michael-Shawn Fletcher. Charcoal analyses were previously performed by Rita Attwood (Basin Lake), Anthony Romano (Lake Gaye), Alexa Benson (Lake Gwendolyn and Lake Vera), Rachael Fletcher (Lake Nancy, Hartz Lake, Lake Selina and Owen Tarn), Haidee Cadd (Square Tarn), William Rapuc (Lake Julia) and Michael-Shawn Fletcher (Lake Osborne). All the co-authors listed in the ‘Publications arising from this PhD thesis’ list commented on the corresponding manuscripts. VIII Acknowledgement of Authorship I hereby certify that the work embodied in this Thesis contains published papers of which I am a joint author. I have included as part of the Thesis a written statement, endorsed by my Principal Supervisor, attesting to my contribution to the joint publications. I, Michela Mariani, was the primary investigator and lead author of all the published manuscripts presented in this Thesis. _____________________ Michael-Shawn Fletcher (Principal Supervisor) ________________ Michela Mariani IX ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I sincerely thank: o My supervisors Michael-Shawn Fletcher and Simon Edward Connor for supporting my ideas throughout my PhD candidature. Without your inspiring guidance, I would have never reached this life milestone. Thanks to Michael-Shawn Fletcher for financial support during my fieldwork and for giving me the opportunity to attend the Southern Connection conference in January 2016 and the AQUA Conference in December 2016. Thanks to Simon E. Connor for being my guide in the vegetation survey fieldtrip and for teaching me all Tasmanian plants. o Krystyna M. Saunders, Henk Heijnis, Geraldine Jacobsen, Patricia Gadd, Atun Zawadzki and Robert Chisari for supporting my AINSE PGRA application, for hosting me at ANSTO several times through the course of my PhD and for giving me the opportunity to learn new methodological approaches and geochemical techniques. o Martin Theuerkauf and Petr Kuneš for their essential help with the first application of quantitative models for land-cover changes in Australia o The AINSE team (Sandy O’ Connor, Rachel Caldwell, Michelle Durant, Nerissa Phillips) for their help during my AINSE PGRA visits and for providing me travel support to attend the following conferences and workshops: AQUA 2016, ASLO 2017 and PALAEOCLIMATE OF THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE 2016 o The professional staff at the School of Geography (Joanne, Tina and Darren) for their important help to solve administrative and technical issues X o My lab colleagues and friends (Haidee, Anthony, Kristen, Rachael, Coralie, Alexa and Bianca) for reciprocal support through all the good and bad moments of our degrees and/or work during the last 3 years o Valentina Vanghi for being my italian best friend in Australia o My family in Italy (my parents – Tiziana and Massimiliano, my grandparents – Giovanna, Battista, Stefano and Maria, my aunts and uncles – Adele, Deborah, Dorino, Silvana, Angela, Rossella, Marco, Fabio and Ilaria, my cousins – Luca, Silvia, Marco, Ivan, Federica, Nadia, my parents-in law – Irma and Alessandro) for constantly reminding me where my home is o My friends in Italy, UK and Spain for being close friends regardless the distance that separates us o La tata Donatella for taking care of my baby during the final writing stages o My family in Australia (Lorenzo and Linneo) per essere la parte piú importante di ogni mio giorno e per sostenermi in ogni mia scelta XI I am also very grateful for the financial support provided for this PhD research project by the following organisations: o Australian Research Council Grants # IN140100050 and DI110100019 • Australian Institute of Nuclear Science and Engineering (AINSE) PGRA- Post Graduate Research Award #12039 • The University of Melbourne, the Faculty of Science and the School of Geography MIRS and MIFRS scholarships John and Allan Gilmour Science Award 2016 Michael Webber Doctoral Prize in Geography 2016 XII TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter 1. Introduction and Thesis aims__________________________