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CLIMATE CHANGE, ADAPTATION, and RADIOACTIVE BANANAS Definitions

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CLIMATE CHANGE, ADAPTATION, and RADIOACTIVE BANANAS Definitions CLIMATE CHANGE, ADAPTATION, AND RADIOACTIVE BANANAS Definitions • Climate Change: A change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns that lasts for an extended period of time (i.e., decades to millions of years). (Wikipedia) • Changes in normal weather conditions (intensity, distribution, timing) • Frequency and intensity of abnormal (extreme) weather events Definitions • Resilient: The capacity to recover quickly from stress. Elastic. • Undamaged, or minor damage from peak events • Sustainable: Repeatable over a long time without suffering reduction or depletion of the resource. • Long life and low maintenance • Adaptation: A dynamic and ongoing process of adjusting to changes in the current environment. • Resilient and Sustainable for future conditions Adapting to Climate Change • Planning current maintenance, and future utility and street improvements for a different statistical distribution of weather patterns, to manage risk, and achieve resiliency and sustainability over the long term. The Public Works Perspective • Water Supply • Water Treatment • Water Storage • Wastewater Collection • Wastewater Treatment • Stormwater Detention • Stormwater Conveyance • Street Maintenance Adaptation Strategy #1: It starts with Data • If you want to make something better, you have to measure where you are and how you are trending. Measurement is a base idea behind all management theory…. you can’t allocate resources until you see how all the topics are doing, because resources are limited. ‐ Scott Adams (creator of Dilbert) Weather Trends Collect Local Weather Data • Rainfall / Snowfall –average, intensity, peak events, timing & distribution • Temperature – high/low/average, extremes & duration of extremes • Wind Speed, Direction, Frequency Data Sources: • NOAA Records • Airport Records • Local Records https://www.usclimatedata.com/climate/ Portland Eugene Model Predictions (IPCC‐ AR5 2013) For Year 2100 • 12% change in median storm event • 20% change in 10 yr storm event • 290% increase in frequency of extreme events Portland Predictions (2015 Climate Action Plan) • 1.3 degree F increase in average temperature in last 100 years. • Predicted 3.3 deg to 9.7 deg increase by 2100 • 30% decrease in summer precipitation by 2100 Adaptation Strategy #2 – Disregard Averages ‐ Look at intensity & extreme events • Gradual increases in averages will not affect infrastructure performance. • Changes in intensity are key (peaking factors) • Biggest impact on short term response and long term design / sizing • Changes in Timing and Duration • Can be important for operational reasons • Consider Extreme Events Intensity vs Extreme Event Intensity Return Period (24 –hr) % increase in Precipitation • I&I peaking factor 22 • Heat index • Rainfall –peak day, peak hour 53 10 4 25 5 100 8 Extreme Events 500 12 • Longer duration • Unpredictable • Outside normal design range Operational Trends I&I Factoids Collect Operational Data • State Standards for residential and commercial sewer flows range from 80 to 150 gpcd. EPA guidance, which uses 120 gpcd, was published in • Monthly and Annual Water Reports 1985 when 3.5 gallon‐per‐flush toilets were • Billings Records standard. • peaking factors range from 2.5 –4.o, but I&I is measured in gp acre/day. • DMR’s / Annual I&I Reports for sewer • Common peak day/avg day ratios are 5x‐8x • Maintenance Logs / Asset Management Lost Water Factoids Summaries • In 1997, unaccounted for water ranged from less than 3% to more than 65% of the total amount. • Old Master Plans* The average was 15%. AWWA recommends less than 10%. Adaptation Strategy #3: Develop Simple Correlations between Weather and Operations • Peak to Average Ratio • Compare Multiple Years • Compare Different Seasons • Develop simple hydrographs • Simple Calendar Exercise for Operations • Compare Current Design Criteria to Historical Design Criteria Risk Management ‐ Adapting to the Trends • Document Existing Problems • Perform Vulnerability Analysis • Identify Adaptation Strategies • Operational Strategies • Engineering Strategies Operations Strategies Water • Drought Tolerant Landscaping –turf and trees • Watering Restrictions / Fines • Aggressive Water Loss control Storm Sewer • Timing of Catch Basin Cleaning • More frequent Inspection and cleaning • Vegetation Management –early pruning, leaf removal • Flow Monitoring –smart manholes Sanitary Sewer • Aggressive I&I reduction • New Monitoring Programs • EPA Guide for Capacity Management, Operation and Maintenance (CMOM) Engineering Strategies Water Treatment • Factors for Process Design • New technology (Ozone) Stormwater Detention / Conveyance • Larger Design Storm • Changes to intensity and duration Wastewater Collection &Treatment • Revised peaking factors • Alternate treatment processes • Galdieria Sulpuraria (wastewater) Streets Operational Strategies • Do weather trends warrant additional maintenance equipment? • Snow Plows? Salt spreaders? • Pavement Preservation – temperature sensitivity of slurry vs microseal vs. chip seal • Consider high friction surface treatment Engineering Strategies – Adaptive Pavements • Change Pavement Grades with temperature • Wilsonville –PG 64‐22, PG 70‐22 • Phoenix –PG 70‐10, PG 76‐10 • Minnesota –PG 58‐28, PG 64‐22 • Consider Pervious Pavements –But don’t use national standards. Need to consider soils and snow plowing Adaptation Strategy #4: Incorporate Adaptation Strategies into Master Plans •Master Plans and Adaptation Planning need the same data •Cost impacts of adaptive operations and engineering design criteria are embedded in the CIP •Enhanced political acceptability Radioactive Bananas!? A Short Lesson on Radioactivity • Ionizing radiation: Caused by decay of unstable radioactive isotopes • breaks molecular bonds, causes destruction of cells • Non – ionizing radiation: light, microwaves, radio waves • 3 types of ionizing radioactivity ‐ Alpha, Beta, and Gamma • Alpha: He nucleus –large mass, high speed (blocked by a sheet of paper) • Beta: electron/positron –small mass, very high speed (blocked by ¼” Al. plate) • Gamma ‐ hi energy photon from nuclear decay (blocked by 1/8” lead) Banana Equivalent Dose • A 150 gram Banana contains about 0.02 gram of radioactive Potassium 40 • Beta Emissions –4300 disintegrations / second • Half life of 1.25 Billion years • Banana Equivelent Dose (BED) = approx. 0.1 microsievert of ionizing radiation • 2 banana / wk = annual dose of 10.4 microsievert Common BED’s • Using a cell phone: 0 BED • Living within 50 miles of a nuclear power plant for a year: 1 BED • Annual dose –computer monitors:10 BED • Dental X‐ray: 50 BED • Living in Colorado: 10 BED/day (520 BED/yr) • Flight from NY to LA: 400 BED • Extra dose in Tokyo from Fukashima release: 400 BED • Living in a brick or stone building: 700 BED • Total two week dose at Fukashima Town Hall: 1000 BED • Annual EPA allowable release for a nuclear power plant: 2500 BED • Mammogram: 4000 BED • Yearly dose from K‐40 in the body: 3900 BED • Maximum extra dose from Three Mile Island: 10,000 BED • Average US background dose –all sources: 40,000 BED • Lowest dose statistically linked to increased cancer: 100,000 BED • Non‐Fatal radiation poisoning:400,000 BED • Fatal radiation poisoning: 4 million BED What’s the Point? • Keep things in perspective. • Be data driven. THANK YOU! Eric Mende, PE Capital Projects Engineering Manager City of Wilsonville.
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