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After Polarity: World Political Systems, Polar Structural Transitions, and Nonpolarity UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones 12-1-2014 After Polarity: World Political Systems, Polar Structural Transitions, and Nonpolarity Nerses Kopalyan University of Nevada, Las Vegas Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalscholarship.unlv.edu/thesesdissertations Part of the International Relations Commons Repository Citation Kopalyan, Nerses, "After Polarity: World Political Systems, Polar Structural Transitions, and Nonpolarity" (2014). UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones. 2277. http://dx.doi.org/10.34917/7048596 This Dissertation is protected by copyright and/or related rights. It has been brought to you by Digital Scholarship@UNLV with permission from the rights-holder(s). You are free to use this Dissertation in any way that is permitted by the copyright and related rights legislation that applies to your use. For other uses you need to obtain permission from the rights-holder(s) directly, unless additional rights are indicated by a Creative Commons license in the record and/or on the work itself. This Dissertation has been accepted for inclusion in UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones by an authorized administrator of Digital Scholarship@UNLV. For more information, please contact [email protected]. AFTER POLARITY: WORLD POLITICAL SYSTEMS, POLAR STRUCTURAL TRANSITIONS, AND NONPOLARITY By Nerses Kopalyan Bachelor of Arts in Political Science University of Nevada, Las Vegas 2006 Master of Arts in Political Science University of Nevada, Las Vegas 2009 A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Doctor of Philosophy – Political Science Department of Political Science College of Liberal Arts The Graduate College University of Nevada, Las Vegas December 2014 Copyright by Nerses Kopalyan, 2015 All Rights Reserved We recommend the dissertation prepared under our supervision by Nerses Kopalyan entitled After Polarity: World Political Systems, Polar Structural Transitions, and Nonpolarity is approved in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy - Political Science Department of Political Science Jonathan R. Strand, Ph.D., Committee Chair John P. Tuman, Ph.D., Committee Member Tiffiany Howard, Ph.D., Committee Member Andrew Bell, Ph.D., Graduate College Representative Kathryn Hausbeck Korgan, Ph.D., Interim Dean of the Graduate College December 2014 ii ABSTRACT After Polarity: World Political Systems, Polar Structural Transitions, and Nonpolarity By Nerses Kopalyan Dr. Jonathan Strand, Examination Committee Chair University of Nevada Las Vegas The research question poses: what are the polar structurations of a system after unipolar transitions, and should a system transition into a nonpolar structure, how can this phenomenon be explained? In the study of polarity, two deficiencies are diagnosed that can potentially not only fill a serious gap, but also strengthen the theoretical, conceptual, and systemic tools utilized within the field. The first gap is the absence of any developed treatments of nonpolarity. Categorical taxonomy primarily revolves around uni-, bi-, tri-, or multi- polar structures. The field lacks a coherent conceptualization of nonpolarity, thus limiting the development of a robust theoretical model that can enrich the study of polar structures and world powers. The second deficiency is the shortage of systematized studies of structural transformations, especially the outcome of polar structural transitions after unipolarity. The objective of this research is to conceptualize, test, and analyze the power configurations and post transitional patters within world political systems. The intent is to observe what power configuration unipolar systems transition into, gauge probabilistic outcomes, and if the ensuing power configuration is defined by nonpolarity, address whether a discernible pattern may be ascertained vis-à-vis unipolarity giving way to nonpolarity. Finally, the research attempts to consider the following puzzle: what will the global political order look like after American unipolarity? iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The most notable characteristic of an intellectual is perhaps magnanimity. That this concept defines the prolific group of scholars who contributed to this project cannot be understated. I have seen, experienced, and learned much in life, yet I have even more to learn from Dr. Jonathan Strand, whose chairmanship of this project epitomizes the devotion, nobility, and dedication embodied in a model professor. Expressing gratitude cannot suffice: I remain indebted to him. Esteem must also be endowed upon Dr. John Tuman, whose impressive intellect is equally matched with his kind and considerate dedication to his students. He remains a role model that many of us seek to emulate. Dr. Tiffiany Howard’s patience and thoughtfulness must also be noted: she had the Herculean task of dealing with my overbearing Armenianness for nearly three years. Her attentive and prudent guidance is but a small example of her thoughtfulness. Recognition must also be extended to Dr. David Fott, who through the years has demonstrated the ethics of being a consummate professional. Collectively, I would also like to acknowledge the entire Political Science Department, from our professors to our graduate students: it has been an extraordinary and continuous pleasure to be part of this department. Loyalty, honor, and a stoic sense of duty are what define Armenian men of status. This is best projected through one’s family. Specification of names is not necessary here, for each hold their esteemed value in relation to their proper place. As such, I am defined by my devotion to my family, circle of friend, and my clan. Our motto remains absolute: “Righteousness Takes Only One Form.” iv DEDICATION In honor of Samvel “Malish” Torosyan: Beloved Godfather, mentor, and icon; a true connoisseur of power and a Lion amongst men! v TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT…………………………...…………………………………………………iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS………………………………………………………………iv DEDICATION…………………………………………………………………………….v LIST OF FIGURES…………………………………………………………………..…viii LIST OF MAPS…………………………………………………………………………...x CHAPTER 1 TOPIC AND RESEARCH QUESTION: AN INTRODUCTION………..1 Topic and Research Question………………………………………………………….2 Literature Review………………………………………………………………………6 Composition of this Work…………………………………………………………….11 CHAPTER 2 BETWEEN THE CONCEPTUAL AND THE METHODOLOGICAL: THE OVERARCHING ARGUMENT …………………….….………...16 Research Design………………………………………………………………………18 Methodology………………………………………………………………………….21 CHAPTER 3 BETWEEN THE CONCEPTUAL AND THE ANALYTICAL: DEFINING AND EXPLAINING THE THEORETICAL FRAMEWORKS………………………………………………………...36 System-Wide Hegemon and Polarity…………………………………………………41 Nonpolarity: As Analytical Tool and Conceptual Model…………………………….49 CHAPTER 4 THE FAR EASTERN WORLD POLITICAL SYSTEM………………..54 CHAPTER 5 THE NEAR EAST-MIDDLE EASTERN WORLD POLITICAL SYSTEM…………………………………………………………………94 CHAPTER 6 THE INDIC WORLD POLITICAL SYSTEM…………………………144 CHAPTER 7 THE MEDITERRANEAN WORLD POLITICAL SYSTEM…………186 CHAPTER 8 THE GLOBAL POLITICAL SYSTEM………………………………..244 CHAPTER 9 AFTER POLARITY: FINDINGS AND AFTERMATH………………288 Results and Analysis………………………………………………………………...294 Implications of the Findings………………………………………………………...305 Future Direction of Research………………………………………………………..317 Conclusion…………………………………………………………………………..323 BIBLIOGRAPHY……………………………………………………………………....327 vi VITA……………………………………………………………………………………367 vii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2.1 List of World Political Systems………………………………………….34 Figure 4.1 Distribution of Polar Structures in the Far Eastern System……...………89 Figure 4.2 Distribution of Polar Structures in this Dataset………………………….89 Figure 4.3 Average Duration of Polar Structures……………………………………91 Figure 4.4 Post-Unipolar Power Constellations in Far Eastern System……………..92 Figure 5.1 Distribution of Polar Structures in the Near East-Middle Eastern System…………………………………………………………………..138 Figure 5.2 Average Duration of Polar Periods……………………………………..140 Figure 5.3 Historical Space of the Near East-Middle Eastern System……………..141 Figure 5.4 Post-Unipolar Power Configurations…………………………………...142 Figure 6.1 Distribution of Polar Structures in Indic System……………………….182 Figure 6.2 Average Duration of Polar Structures…………………………………..183 Figure 6.3 Post-Unipolar Power Constellations in Indic System…………………..184 Figure 7.1 Distribution of Polar Structures of Mediterranean System……………..239 Figure 7.2 Average Duration of Polar Periods……………………………………..240 Figure 7.3 Historic Space of Mediterranean System…………………………….…241 Figure 7.4 Post-Unipolar Outcomes………………………………………………..242 Figure 9.1 Near East-Middle Eastern Political System…………………………….297 Figure 9.2 Mediterranean Political System………………………………………...297 Figure 9.3 Far Eastern Political System……………………………………………297 Figure 9.4 Indic Political System…………………………………………………..298 Figure 9.5 Global Political System………………………………………………...298 Figure 9.6 Aggregate Distribution of Polar Structures………………………….….298 viii Figure 9.7 Percentile Breakdown of Polar Structures…………………….………..300 Figure 9.8 Average Duration of Polar Structures in the Dataset…………………...304 Figure 9.9 Historic Space Occupied by Polar Periods……………………………..305 Figure 10.1 Aggregate Distribution of Post-Unipolar Structures……………………309 Figure 10.2 Probabilistic Outcomes of Post-Unipolar Structures…………………...311 Figure 10.3 Transition from Unipolar to Nonpolar Structures………………………316 ix LIST OF MAPS Map 4.1…………………………………………………………………………………..57
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