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Russian Hybrid Tactics in Georgia
Russian Hybrid Tactics in Georgia Niklas Nilsson SILK ROAD PAPER January 2018 Russian Hybrid Tactics in Georgia Niklas Nilsson © Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program – A Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center American Foreign Policy Council, 509 C St NE, Washington D.C. Institute for Security and Development Policy, V. Finnbodavägen 2, Stockholm-Nacka, Sweden www.silkroadstudies.org “Russian Hybrid Tactics in Georgia” is a Silk Road Paper published by the Central Asia- Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program, Joint Center. The Silk Road Papers Series is the Occasional Paper series of the Joint Center, and addresses topical and timely subjects. The Joint Center is a transatlantic independent and non-profit research and policy center. It has offices in Washington and Stockholm and is affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council and the Institute for Security and Development Policy. It is the first institution of its kind in Europe and North America, and is firmly established as a leading research and policy center, serving a large and diverse community of analysts, scholars, policy-watchers, business leaders, and journalists. The Joint Center is at the forefront of research on issues of conflict, security, and development in the region. Through its applied research, publications, research cooperation, public lectures, and seminars, it functions as a focal point for academic, policy, and public discussion regarding the region. The opinions and conclusions expressed in this study are those of -
Georgia: Background and U.S
Georgia: Background and U.S. Policy Updated September 5, 2018 Congressional Research Service https://crsreports.congress.gov R45307 SUMMARY R45307 Georgia: Background and U.S. Policy September 5, 2018 Georgia is one of the United States’ closest non-NATO partners among the post-Soviet states. With a history of strong economic aid and security cooperation, the United States Cory Welt has deepened its strategic partnership with Georgia since Russia’s 2008 invasion of Analyst in European Affairs Georgia and 2014 invasion of Ukraine. U.S. policy expressly supports Georgia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders, and Georgia is a leading recipient of U.S. aid in Europe and Eurasia. Many observers consider Georgia to be one of the most democratic states in the post-Soviet region, even as the country faces ongoing governance challenges. The center-left Georgian Dream party has more than a three-fourths supermajority in parliament, allowing it to rule with only limited checks and balances. Although Georgia faces high rates of poverty and underemployment, its economy in 2017 appeared to enter a period of stronger growth than the previous four years. The Georgian Dream won elections in 2012 amid growing dissatisfaction with the former ruling party, Georgia: Basic Facts Mikheil Saakashvili’s center-right United National Population: 3.73 million (2018 est.) Movement, which came to power as a result of Comparative Area: slightly larger than West Virginia Georgia’s 2003 Rose Revolution. In August 2008, Capital: Tbilisi Russia went to war with Georgia to prevent Ethnic Composition: 87% Georgian, 6% Azerbaijani, 5% Saakashvili’s government from reestablishing control Armenian (2014 census) over Georgia’s regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Religion: 83% Georgian Orthodox, 11% Muslim, 3% Armenian which broke away from Georgia in the early 1990s to Apostolic (2014 census) become informal Russian protectorates. -
D) South Caucasus
International Alert. Local Business, Local Peace: the Peacebuilding Potential of the Domestic Private Sector Case study South Caucasus* * This document is an extract from Local Business, Local Peace: the Peacebuilding Potential of the Domestic Private Sector, published in 2006 by the UK-based peacebuilding NGO International Alert. Full citation should be provided in any referencing. © International Alert, 2006. All rights reserved. No part of this publication, including electronic materials, may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without full attribution. South Caucasus Between pragmatism and idealism: businesses coping with conflict in the South Caucasus Natalia Mirimanova This report explores the role that local private sector activity can play in addressing the conflicts of the South Caucasus. It is based on qualitative interviews conducted with a range of entrepreneurs, both formal and informal, carried out in 2005. It embraces three unresolved conflicts: the conflict between Armenians and Azeris over Nagorny-Karabakh; and the conflicts over Abkhazia and South Ossetia that challenged Georgia’s territorial integrity.1 All three resulted from the break-up of the Soviet Union. Despite its peaceful dissolution, the newly independent states in the South Caucasus all experienced some degree of violence. The turmoil in Georgia was linked to the escalation of internal conflicts with the autonomous regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, while the unilateral secession of Nagorny-Karabakh – a predominantly Armenian region in Azerbaijan – sparked a war between the latter and Armenia. An overview of the conflicts is provided below, together with an outline of the current political context and the private sectors. -
Civil Society, Government and the Opposition Movements in Poland: the Post-Communist Role Reversal
e W E E R / Warsaw East European Conferenc e W E E R / Warsaw East European Conferenc INTERNAT I ONAL BOARD : Egidijus Aleksandravičius, Vytautas Magnus University Stefano Bianchini, University of Bologna Miroslav Hroch, Charles University Yaroslav Hrytsak, Ukrainian Catholic University Andreas Kappeler, University of Vienna Zbigniew Kruszewski, University of Texas, El Paso Jan Kubik, Rutgers University Panayot Karagyozov, Sofia University Alexey Miller, Russian Academy of Sciences Richard Pipes, Harvard University Mykola Riabchuk, Kyiv-Mohyla Academy Alexander Rondeli, Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies John Micgiel, Columbia University Barbara Törnquist-Plewa, Lund University Theodore Weeks, Southern Illinois University ED I TOR I AL COMM I TTEE : Jan Malicki, University of Warsaw (Director of the WEEC – Warsaw East European Conference, chair of the Committee) Leszek Zasztowt (chair of the WEEC Board), University of Warsaw Andrzej Żbikowski (secretary of the WEEC Board, University of Warsaw ED I TOR -I N -CH I EF Jerzy Kozakiewicz, University of Warsaw ASS I STANT ED I TOR Konrad Zasztowt, University of Warsaw ISBN: 978-83-61325-32-1 ISSN: 2299-2421 Copyright © by Studium Europy Wschodniej UW 2013 COVER AND TYPOGRAPH ic DES I GN J.M & J.J.M. LAYOUT Jan Malik, “MALGRAF” PR I NT I NG Zakład Graficzny UW, nr zam. 780/2013 Foreword ........................................................................................................... 9 I. POLAND Galia Chimiak, The Evolution of the Vision of Civil Society in Poland ..................... 13 Beata Halicka, The Shifting of Borders in 1945 in Memory of Poles, Germans and 29 Ukrainians ....................................................................................................... Richard J. Hunter, Leo V. Ryan, Economic Transformation and Privatization .......... 37 Magda Stroińska, Civil Society, Government and the Opposition Movements in Po- land: The Post-Communist Role Reversal .......................................................... -
Uncertain Times Jeopardize Enlargement
Strong Headwinds Uncertain Times Jeopardize Enlargement By Pál Dunay PER CONCORDIAM ILLUSTRATION 18 per Concordiam stablished 70 years ago with the signa- The FRG’s accession 10 years after the end Visitors walk past a tures of 12 original members, NATO of World War II in Europe, in May 1955, had remaining section E of the Berlin Wall now has 29 members, meaning more than half multiple consequences. It meant: in 2018. The end of are accession countries. Enlargement by accession • The FRG’s democratic record had been the Cold War and occurred over seven separate occasions, and on recognized. the unification of one occasion the geographic area increased with- • The country could be integrated militarily, Europe entailed out increasing the number of member states when which signaled its subordination and a clear the unification of the German Democratic Republic (GDR) became requirement not to act outside the Alliance. Germany. THE ASSOCIATED PRESS part of the Federal Republic of Germany (FRG) in • The FRG’s membership in NATO created an October 1990. incentive for the establishment of the Warsaw The conditions surrounding the enlarge- Pact, which followed West German membership ments — the first in 1952 (Greece and Turkey) by five days in 1955 and led to the integration and the most recent in 2017 (Montenegro) — have of the GDR into the eastern bloc. This signaled varied significantly. The first three enlargements the completion of the East-West division, at occurred during the Cold War and are regarded least as far as security was concerned. as strategic. They contributed to the consolida- tion of the post-World War II European order The third enlargement — Spain in 1982 — meant and helped determine its territorial boundaries. -
Abkhazia: Deepening Dependence
ABKHAZIA: DEEPENING DEPENDENCE Europe Report N°202 – 26 February 2010 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS................................................. i I. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................. 1 II. RECOGNITION’S TANGIBLE EFFECTS ................................................................... 2 A. RUSSIA’S POST-2008 WAR MILITARY BUILD-UP IN ABKHAZIA ...................................................3 B. ECONOMIC ASPECTS ....................................................................................................................5 1. Dependence on Russian financial aid and investment .................................................................5 2. Tourism potential.........................................................................................................................6 3. The 2014 Sochi Olympics............................................................................................................7 III. LIFE IN ABKHAZIA........................................................................................................ 8 A. POPULATION AND CITIZENS .........................................................................................................8 B. THE 2009 PRESIDENTIAL POLL ..................................................................................................10 C. EXTERNAL RELATIONS ..............................................................................................................11 -
Chronicle: the Caucasus in the Year 2009
Chronicle: The Caucasus in the year 2009 January 2 January 2009 Greece, which takes over the OSCE chairmanship from Finland, declares diplomatic efforts will continue to reach a consensus on the extension of the OSCE mission in Georgia 4 January 2009 Georgian Ministry of Internal Affairs says Georgian police post was attacked in the village of Ganmukhuri at the Abkhaz administrative border 6 January 2009 Azerbaijan Democratic Party condemns the closure of foreign radio stations in Azerbaijan 6 January 2009 Georgian public TV announces Georgia’s participation in the Eurovision song contest in Moscow in May 8 January 2009 An inter-agency anti-corruption council is set up in Georgia to upgrade the national anti-corruption strategy and action plan 9 January 2009 US and Georgian officials sign a bilateral charter on strategic partnership 9 January 2009 Transit of Russian gas to Armenia is halted after a gas pipeline is damaged in Southern Georgia 10 January 2009 Russian state-controlled electricity trader Inter RAO signs a memorandum of understanding with Georgia on the exploitation of the Enguri hydro power plant (HPP) 12 January 2009 Tbilisi Mayor Gigi Ugulava rules out early elections 12 January 2009 Swiss Foreign Minister Micheline Calmy-Rey visits Georgia to sign agreement with Georgian Foreign Minister Grigol Vashadze on the protection of Georgia’s interests in Russia by Switzerland 12 January 2009 Estonian President Toomas Hendrik Ilves visits Azerbaijan 13 January 2009 Opposition parties in Georgia criticize the government for striking -
Georgia After Merabishvili's Arrest: a Ukraine Scenario?
No. 62 (515), 5 June 2013 © PISM Editors: Marcin Zaborowski (Editor-in-Chief) . Katarzyna Staniewska (Managing Editor) Jarosław Ćwiek-Karpowicz . Artur Gradziuk . Piotr Kościński Roderick Parkes . Marcin Terlikowski . Beata Wojna Georgia after Merabishvili’s Arrest: A Ukraine Scenario? Konrad Zasztowt The recent arrest of Vano Merabishvili, Georgia’s former prime minister, closest associate of President Mikheil Saakashvili and leader of the opposition, raise suspicions that the current government uses prosecutors as instruments of political persecution on its opponents. However, it is too early to compare this case with the case of Ukraine’s former prime minister, Yulia Tymoshenko, already rated as “selective justice” by the U.S., European Union and many international organisations. The EU should closely monitor the legal proceedings in Merabishvili’s case and put further pressure on Georgian authorities to force them to continue the reform of prosecutors’ offices and the judiciary. Since 21 May, the Secretary General of the Georgian opposition, United National Movement’s (UNM) Vano Merabishvili, has remained in custody. According to the prosecutor in charge of his case, the former prime minister is responsible for misspending more than €2.3 million in public funds on the UNM election campaign last year. The prosecutor claims the money was granted to UNM followers formally as part of a programme to reduce unemployment but in fact was aggregated for party use. Merabishvili is also accused of the misappropriation of a private villa in 2009 when he served as minister of Internal Affairs. According to the prosecutor, Merabishvili, using his political position, simply forced the owner to leave his house to the ministry, and later—while using the villa for private purposes—spent public money for its renovation. -
South Ossetia: the Burden of Recognition
SOUTH OSSETIA: THE BURDEN OF RECOGNITION Europe Report N°205 – 7 June 2010 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS................................................. i I. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................. 1 II. POST-RECOGNITION DEVELOPMENTS ................................................................. 2 A. THE POPULATION.........................................................................................................................2 B. THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC SITUATION AND RECONSTRUCTION .........................................................4 1. Local conditions...........................................................................................................................4 2. Russian aid and corruption...........................................................................................................6 C. RUSSIA’S MILITARY PRESENCE – SOUTH OSSETIA’S STRATEGIC VALUE .....................................7 III. LOCAL POLITICS........................................................................................................... 9 A. COMPETITION FOR RUSSIAN RESOURCES .....................................................................................9 B. THE RULE OF LAW AND HUMAN RIGHTS ...................................................................................12 C. FUTURE PROSPECTS ...................................................................................................................13 IV. -
Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst Vol 13, No 12
Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst BI-WEEKLY BRIEFING VOL. 13 NO. 12 22 JUNE 2011 Searchable Archives with over 1,500 articles at http://www.cacianalyst.org ANALYTICAL ARTICLES: FIELD REPORTS: KYRGYZ PARLIAMENT VOTES TO BAN FREEDOMS CHINA AND KAZAKHSTAN PRAISE STRATEGIC Erica Marat RELATIONS AND STRENGTHEN REGIONAL COOPERATION Georgiy Voloshin STRATEGIC UNCERTAINTY IN UZBEKISTAN’S AFGHANISTAN POLICY TAJIKISTAN SUSPENDS ROGUN DAM Farkhod Tolipov RESETTLEMENT PROGRAM Alexander Sodiqov SCO EXPANSION IMPASSE PERSISTS Richard Weitz TBILISI THREATENS TO LEAVE GENEVA TALKS Maka Gurgenidze TEHREEK-E-TALIBAN PAKISTAN STEPS UP RUSSIAN PRESIDENT VISITS UZBEKISTAN ACTIVITIES FOLLOWING AHEAD OF THE SCO SUMMIT BIN LADIN’S DEATH Erkin Akhmadov Rizwan Zeb NEWS DIGEST Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst BI-WEEKLY BRIEFING VOL. 13 NO. 12 22 JUNE 2011 Contents Analytical Articles KYRGYZ PARLIAMENT VOTES TO BAN FREEDOMS 3 Erica Marat STRATEGIC UNCERTAINTY IN UZBEKISTAN’S AFGHANISTAN POLICY 6 Farkhod Tolipov SCO EXPANSION IMPASSE PERSISTS 9 Richard Weitz TEHREEK-E-TALIBAN PAKISTAN STEPS UP ACTIVITIES 12 FOLLOWING BIN LADIN’S DEATH Rizwan Zeb Field Reports CHINA AND KAZAKHSTAN PRAISE STRATEGIC RELATIONS 15 AND STRENGTHEN REGIONAL COOPERATION Georgiy Voloshin TAJIKISTAN SUSPENDS ROGUN DAM RESETTLEMENT PROGRAM 16 Alexander Sodiqov TBILISI THREATENS TO LEAVE GENEVA TALKS 18 Maka Gurgenidze RUSSIAN PRESIDENT VISITS UZBEKISTAN AHEAD OF THE SCO SUMMIT 19 Erkin Akhmadov News Digest 21 THE CENTRAL ASIA-CAUCASUS ANALYST Editor: Svante E. Cornell Associate Editor: Niklas Nilsson Assistant Editor, News Digest: Alima Bissenova Chairman, Editorial Board: S. Frederick Starr The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is an English-language journal devoted to analysis of the current issues facing Central Asia and the Caucasus. -
Georgia by Michael Hikari Cecire Capital: Tbilisi Population: 3.7 Million GNI/Capita, PPP: US$7,510
Georgia By Michael Hikari Cecire Capital: Tbilisi Population: 3.7 million GNI/capita, PPP: US$7,510 Source: World Bank World Development Indicators. Nations in Transit Ratings and Averaged Scores NIT Edition 2016 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2017 Electoral 4.75 5.25 5.25 5.00 5.00 4.75 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 Process Civil Society 3.50 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 Independent 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 Media National Democratic 5.75 6.00 6.00 5.75 5.75 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 Governance Local Democratic 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.25 5.25 5.25 Governance Judicial Framework and 4.75 4.75 4.75 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.75 4.75 Independence Corruption 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.75 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 Democracy 4.79 4.93 4.93 4.86 4.82 4.75 4.68 4.64 4.61 4.61 Score NOTE: The ratings reflect the consensus of Freedom House, its academic advisers, and the author(s) of this report. The opinions expressed in this report are those of the author(s). The ratings are based on a scale of 1 to 7, with 1 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 7 the lowest. -
Free and Fair? a Challenge for the EU As Georgia and Ukraine Gear up for Elections Hrant Kostanyan and Ievgen Vorobiov 27 September 2012
Free and fair? A Challenge for the EU as Georgia and Ukraine gear up for elections Hrant Kostanyan and Ievgen Vorobiov 27 September 2012 n an important test for democracy, Georgia and Ukraine will go to the polls for parliamentary elections on the 1st and 28th of October, respectively. The political leaders I of these two Eastern Partnership countries have committed themselves to European values and principles – rhetorically. In reality, the promise of their colour revolutions is unrealised and they have shifted further towards authoritarianism, albeit following different paths in their respective post-revolution periods. Georgian leader Mikheil Saakashvili has championed a number of important reforms such as fighting criminality and improving public sector services. But democracy is in decline in the country, with an increasingly over- bearing government, a weak parliament, non-independent judiciary and semi-free media. Unlike Saakashvili, who is still at the helm of Georgian politics, the protagonists of the Ukrainian revolution have either been imprisoned (Yulia Tymoshenko) or discredited (Viktor Yushchenko). President Yushchenko’s attempts to neutralise his former revolutionary ally Tymoshenko resulted in the electoral victory of Viktor Yanukovych in 2010, who was quick to consolidate his reign. An uneven playing field The parliamentary elections in Georgia come at a critical juncture for the country, because the constitutional changes to be enforced in 2013 significantly increase the powers of the prime minister – effectively transforming this election into ‘king-maker’. If the Ukrainian president is to secure a constitutional majority in parliament, there are indications that Yanukovych will push for an amendment to enable presidential election by parliament rather than by direct popular vote.