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Climate Change, Vulnerability and Adaptation for South-West Western Australia: Phase One of Action 5.5, Western Australian Greenhouse Strategy

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Climate Change, Vulnerability and Adaptation for South-West Western Australia: Phase One of Action 5.5, Western Australian Greenhouse Strategy Research Library Bulletins 4000 - Research Publications 2008 Climate change, vulnerability and adaptation for south-west Western Australia: Phase one of action 5.5, Western Australian Greenhouse Strategy Luke Morgan Jo Anne Molin Ross George Richard McKellar Janet Conte Follow this and additional works at: https://researchlibrary.agric.wa.gov.au/bulletins Part of the Agriculture Commons, Aquaculture and Fisheries Commons, Climate Commons, and the Forest Sciences Commons Recommended Citation Morgan, L, Molin, J, George, R, McKellar, R, and Conte, J. (2008), Climate change, vulnerability and adaptation for south-west Western Australia: Phase one of action 5.5, Western Australian Greenhouse Strategy. Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development, Western Australia, Perth. Bulletin 4751. This bulletin is brought to you for free and open access by the Research Publications at Research Library. It has been accepted for inclusion in Bulletins 4000 - by an authorized administrator of Research Library. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Bulletin Number 4751 ISSN: 1833-7236 CLIMATE CHANGE, VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION FOR SOUTH WEST WESTERN AUSTRALIA 1970 TO 2006 PHASE ONE OF ACTION 5.5, WESTERN AUSTRALIAN GREENHOUSE STRATEGY Contact For further information on this report please contact Luke Morgan, Department of Agriculture and Food PO Box 1231, Bunbury WA 6230, (08) 9780 6204, [email protected] Additional copies can be obtained from the Department of Agriculture and Food, 3 Baron Hay Court, South Perth WA 6151, (08) 9368 3333 DISCLAIMER The Chief Executive Officer of the Department of Agriculture and Food and the state of Western Australia accept no liability whatsoever by reason of negligence or otherwise arising from use or release of this information or any part of it. Copyright © Western Australian Agriculture Authority, 2008 Western Australian Government materials, including website pages, documents and online graphics, audio and video are protected by copyright law. Copyright of materials created by or for the Department of Agriculture and Food resides with the Western Australian Agriculture Authority established under the Biosecurity and Agriculture Management Act 2007. Apart from any fair dealing for the purposes of private study, research, criticism or review, as permitted under the provisions of the Copyright Act 1968, no part may be reproduced or reused for any commercial purposes whatsoever without prior written permission of the Western Australian Agriculture Authority. CLIMATE CHANGE, VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION FOR SOUTH WEST WESTERN AUSTRALIA 1970 TO 2006 PHASE ONE OF ACTION 5.5, WESTERN AUSTRALIAN GREENHOUSE STRATEGY Prepared by Luke Morgan, Jo Anne Molin, Ross George, Richard McKellar and Janet Conte Acknowledgements The authors would like to acknowledge the input of the Action 5.5 sub-committee of the State Greenhouse Interdepartmental Committee comprising the Department of Agriculture and Food, Department of Environment and Conservation, Department of Fisheries, Department of Health, Department of Housing and Works, Department of Local Government and Regional Development, Department for Planning and Infrastructure, Department of Sport and Recreation, Department of Treasury and Finance, Department of Water, Forest Products Commission, Tourism Western Australia, Verve Energy and Water Corporation. The authors would also like to acknowledge input and support of the Commonwealth Department of Climate Change. This project is funded by the Australian Government and the Government of Western Australia. Climate change, vulnerability and adaptation for South West Western Australia—1970 to 2006 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ......................................................................................................... vii INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................... 1 ACTION 5.5 ................................................................................................................................ 3 WHY IS IT NEEDED…? ...................................................................................................... 3 WHY VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION…? .................................................................... 4 Looking at the past—laying the groundwork for future risk assessment ...................... 6 Criteria for risk assessment and priority setting ............................................................ 6 PHASE ONE ....................................................................................................................... 7 Outputs and methodology ............................................................................................. 7 PHASE TWO ....................................................................................................................... 9 Outputs .......................................................................................................................... 9 Methodology .................................................................................................................. 10 FEATURES OF CLIMATE CHANGE .................................................................................... 13 MAJOR GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGES ................................................................................ 13 MAJOR CLIMATE CHANGES FOR AUSTRALIA .................................................................. 14 IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN AUSTRALIA ................................................................ 15 Water resources ............................................................................................................ 15 Biodiversity .................................................................................................................... 16 Agriculture ..................................................................................................................... 17 Forestry ......................................................................................................................... 17 Fisheries ........................................................................................................................ 18 Public health .................................................................................................................. 18 Settlements and infrastructure ...................................................................................... 19 CLIMATE CHANGES FOR SOUTH WEST WESTERN AUSTRALIA ............................ 21 FEATURES OF CLIMATE CHANGE ...................................................................................... 21 Temperature .................................................................................................................. 21 Rainfall .......................................................................................................................... 22 Sea level rise ................................................................................................................. 25 IMPACTS AND RESPONSES ................................................................................................ 27 PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS AND OBSERVATIONS .................................................................... 27 Broad acceptance ......................................................................................................... 27 Declining rainfall has driven responses to climate change ........................................... 28 Mitigation responses ..................................................................................................... 29 Perceived temperature changes ................................................................................... 30 Perceived rainfall changes ............................................................................................ 30 Other observed changes and impacts .......................................................................... 31 i Page FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE ................................................................................................ 32 INFORMATION REQUIREMENTS ......................................................................................... 33 INDICATORS FOR FURTHER WORK .................................................................................... 34 WATER RESOURCES ............................................................................................................. 37 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................... 37 A DRYING CLIMATE RESULTS IN LESS SURFACE WATER ................................................. 37 RESPONSES TO DECREASING RAINFALL .......................................................................... 39 Private supply ................................................................................................................ 41 Rural water supplies ...................................................................................................... 42 THE FUTURE ....................................................................................................................... 43 CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................................................... 43 NATURAL ECOSYSTEMS AND BIODIVERSITY ............................................................... 45 THE ROLE OF CLIMATE IN NATURAL
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