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Minutes to Millennia Traversing the Scales MCEC, Melbourne, 8-11 February 2016 TABLE of CONTENTS Plenary Sessions

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Minutes to Millennia Traversing the Scales MCEC, Melbourne, 8-11 February 2016 TABLE of CONTENTS Plenary Sessions AustralianMeteorological AMOS & OceanographicSociety AMOS/ARCCSS National Conference 2016 Minutes to Millennia traversing the scales MCEC, Melbourne, 8-11 February 2016 TABLE OF CONTENTS Plenary Sessions .......................................................................................................................... 1 Detecting anthropogenic climate forcing in the ocean ...................................................................... 1 Hiatus on the global warming staircase .............................................................................................. 2 Buoyancy in the global ocean circulation ........................................................................................... 3 Attribution of extreme weather and climate-related events ............................................................. 4 From UV to climate extremes: the many influences of stratospheric ozone ..................................... 5 Tropical-midlatitude interactions and significant summertime weather in the Australian region .... 6 S2.1a General Ocean Science ........................................................................................................ 7 Transition zone oceans: conduits to the deep .................................................................................... 7 Mode water formation via cabbeling at a strained TS-front .............................................................. 8 Dynamics of re-emergences of sea surface temperature anomalies associated with the seasonal cycle of the ocean mixed layer ........................................................................................................... 9 S2.1b General Ocean Science ...................................................................................................... 10 Sea-level rise reconstruction from 1900 to present, sensitivity and new method development .... 10 Reduced Space Optimal Interpolation estimates of steric sea level and heat content of the upper ocean derived from the Argo observations ...................................................................................... 11 Eastward flows and eddies in the southeast Indian Ocean .............................................................. 12 IMOS sea surface temperature products suitable for near-coastal applications ............................. 13 On the relevance of ocean surface currents in wave modelling in the Southern Ocean ................. 14 Larger waves driven by Australian Monsoons affect suspended sediment concentration in Darwin Harbour ............................................................................................................................................. 15 S2.2a Extreme Events in the Marine Environment ....................................................................... 16 A hierarchical approach for defining marine heatwaves .................................................................. 16 Physical underpinnings of marine heat waves: Drivers and global patterns .................................... 17 Long-term trends in marine heatwaves since 1900 ......................................................................... 18 Freshening anomalies in the Indonesian throughflow and impacts on the Leeuwin Current during 2010-11 ............................................................................................................................................. 19 S2.2b Extreme Events in the Marine Environment ....................................................................... 20 On the Majestic Upwelling System of the Arafura Sea ..................................................................... 20 Simulating the Pacific Decadal Meridional Mode and its impact on ENSO in ACCESS model .......... 21 Antarctic sea ice: Has the retreat finally started? ............................................................................ 22 S2.3a Advances in Modelling and Prediction of Coastal Oceanographic Processes ........................ 23 Wave modelling under ACCESS-TCX ................................................................................................. 23 Occurrence of rogue waves and statistics of wave field................................................................... 24 Wind waves as a link between the ocean and atmosphere ............................................................. 25 i S2.3b Advances in Modelling and Prediction of Coastal Oceanographic Processes........................ 26 New approach of lateral turbulent diffusion in hydrodynamic models ........................................... 26 Validation of nearshore wave models to extreme sea level observations for fringing reef environments .................................................................................................................................... 27 2-way coupled wave and ocean model for Australia, using a 3D unstructured high resolution grid .......................................................................................................................................................... 28 Development of an operational storm surge forecasting system. Part I - overview ........................ 29 Development of an operational storm surge forecasting system. Part II - Queensland and tropical system ............................................................................................................................................... 30 Development of an operational storm surge forecasting system. Part III - National system........... 31 S2.3c Advances in Modelling and Prediction of Coastal Oceanographic Processes ........................ 32 A high-resolution coastal ocean model for the Great Barrier Reef .................................................. 32 An operational coastal ocean forecasting system for the Great Barrier Reef region ....................... 33 Effects of dredging and its spoil dumping on suspended-sediment dynamics: Observation and numerical simulation in Darwin Harbour, Australia ......................................................................... 34 S2.4 Innovations in Ocean Climate Modelling ............................................................................. 35 Ocean performance in the ACCESS-CM2 model experiments .......................................................... 35 Ice Ocean interaction in 1 degree and ¼ degree ACCESS2 coupled model runs .............................. 36 Scalability of parameterizations in global high-resolution ocean models ........................................ 37 High resolution numerical simulation of convection and dissolution at a vertical ice-seawater interface ............................................................................................................................................ 38 Wave-turbulence-mean flow interaction in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current ............................. 39 Stationary Rossby waves and carbon subduction in the Southern Ocean ....................................... 40 The effect of mixing locality on overturning circulation ................................................................... 41 S2.5a Variability in the East Australian Current and the Tasman Sea: Past, Present and Future..... 42 Drivers of variability across the inner shelf off Sydney..................................................................... 42 Circulation on the eastern Tasmanian continental shelf: The mean state and seasonal cycle ........ 43 Submesoscale frontal meanders and eddies along the East Australian Current observed by HF Radars ............................................................................................................................................... 44 S2.5b Variability in the East Australian Current and the Tasman Sea: Past, Present and Future .... 45 Observing East Australian Current eddies from Argo float data ...................................................... 45 An observational study of the biophysical characteristics of two contrasting cyclonic eddies in the Tasman Sea ....................................................................................................................................... 46 Can we cleanly attribute ocean time-dependence to forced or intrinsic variability? Insights from an idealised study of the East Australian Current ................................................................................. 47 How projected changes in the Tasman Sea will impact Australian mid-latitude weather systems?48 S3.1a General Climatology ......................................................................................................... 49 ii Remote sensing of soil moisture - Capabilities and pitfalls .............................................................. 49 Relationships between climate variability, soil moisture, and Australian heatwaves ..................... 50 Current and future changes in regional climate for the southwest of Western Australia ............... 51 Emergence of heat extremes attributable to anthropogenic influences ......................................... 52 S3.1b General Climatology ......................................................................................................... 53 Evaluation of the AWAP daily precipitation spatial analysis against an independent gauge network in the Snowy Mountains ................................................................................................................... 53 Changes in rainfall regimes and associated synoptic patterns
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