GENIVI Alliance: Smartphone Connectivity Means and Outlook
Roger C. Lanctot, Associate Director Glob al AAtutomoti ve PPtiractice Strategy Analytics October 2012 New policy Has unfortunate consequences Hopefully vehicle connectivity will be part of the solution, not part of the problem! Global Safety Outlook, Opportunity
5 Connecting the Car: The Big Picture Drives – OUT; Displays ‐ IN 3G/LTE Connectivity on the way for CRM Smartphone accommodation to sell cars Digital radio for low cost, low distraction content delivery
6 Connectivity ECU ‐ OEM: Regional Shipments
40,000
35,000 000 Rest Of the World Brazil 30,000 Russia 25,000 India 00's) 00 20,000 000 China
15,000 Japan Units ( Units South Korea 10,000 Europe 5,000 000 North America 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 • Connectivity ECU growth opportunity 2011 vs. 2019: –ECU Shipments: 4.5 mil units in 2011 to 38.7 million units in 2019 (CAGR 31%) –ECU Revenues: $460 mil in 2011 to $2.9 Billion in 2019 (CAGR 26%) – Average Se lling PPirice: – $100/unit in 2011 Æ $75/unit in 2019
Source: Automotive Multimedia & Communications ‐ AMCS Global Wireless Players in Automotive Embedded Telematics Demand ¾ New business models enable new growth phase
¾ Safety, CRM, advanced infotainment
¾ Long‐term outlook ‐ V2V, V2I, autonomous cars, etc. • Different regional strategies – Europe/Mobility, U.S./Safety
40,000
35,000 4G 30,000 Global 3G 's) 25,000 00 2.5G 3G Wireless Network: 20,000 24 Mil units in 2019 15,000 2G
Units (00 Units 10,000 4G Wireless Network:
5,000 12.3 Mil units in 2019 0 20092010 201120122013201420152016201720182019 8 Source: Automotive Multimedia & Communications ‐ AMCS Telematics ECU: OEM Regional Shipment View
40,000 35,000 Rest Of the World Brazil 30,000 Russia 25,000 India
(000's) 20,000 China
15,000 Japan Units Units South Korea 10,000 Europe 5,000 000 North America 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
• North America: eCall/Telematics highly dependent on car maker strategies • Europe: eCall telematics highly dependent on regulatory activity and selected OEMs • Japan: Navigation is still dominant, Telematics roll‐out is lead by Toyota • China: Forecast to be #3 Player in embedded Telematics ECU Globally by 2014
Source: Automotive Multimedia & Communications ‐ AMCS Automotive HMI: The Rise of the Display – 2012 update
‘Pre‐iPhone’ Phase Æ
Source: Automotive Multimedia & Communications ‐ AMCS OEM Display Deployment: Global Shipments by Position
150,000
12512 5 , 000
C ent er R oof mount 100,000
Headrest 75,000
Driver Information 50,000
Center 25,000 M ult if unct ion
0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 • OEM Display Growth Opportunity 2011 vs. 2019 – CtCenter MltifMultifunc tion: +250% (23.3 Mil in 2011 Æ 81.7 Mil in 2019) CAGR 17.0% DDDDD –Driver Information: +1000% (4.4 Mil in 2011 Æ 56 Mil in 2019) CAGR 37.4% DDDDD – Headrest: +123% (1.8 Million in 2011 to 4.1 Million in 2019) CAGR 10.6% DD –Center Roof mount: +38% (300,000 in 2011 to 420,000 in 2019) CAGR 4.1% D Æ The Display becomes a key Human Machine Interface (HMI) point for: Audio, Media, HVAC, Telematics, Navigation, Social networking Æ The Display provides users with a flexible interface tool that will future proof vehicle systems
Source: Automotive Multimedia & Communications ‐ AMCS OEM Headunit: Prem. & Branded Audio Shipments
25,000
) 20, 000 ss
15,000 Premium Audio
nits (000' nits Branded Audio UU 10,000 S urround (5.1/7.1)
Global Global 5,000
0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 •Feature Trend/Opportunity: 2011 vs. 2019 –Premium Audio: Growing interest in midrange vehicle segment • Market Shipments: 9.0 Mil to 21 Mil units (130% Growth, CAGR 11%) DDDDD – Branded Audio: OEM’s are adopting ‘Brands’ to add value to Premium audio • MkMarket Shipments: 646.4 Mil to 16.4 Mil units (156% GhGrowth, CAGR 12. 5%) DDDDD – Surround Sound (5.1/7.1): Currently low penetration across all vehicle segments • Market Shipments: 4 Mil to 15.1 Mil units (270% growth, CAGR 17.9%) DDD Source: Automotive Multimedia & Communications ‐ AMCS OEM Headunit: Optical Media and Storage 90,000
80,000
70, 000 Mec hless 60,000 CD/DVD (Single) 50,000 CD/DVD (Changer)
Units (000's) 40, 000 Blu- ray
30,000 HDD Global Global
20,000 Flash Slot 10, 000
0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 • Headunit Feature Trend/Opportunity: 2011 vs. 2019 Mechless: 69% of vehicles worldwide will be ‘solid‐state’ by 2019 (2.6% in 2011) DDDDD – CD/DVD Changer: Headunit availability falls to 1.9% WW by 2019 (29% in 2011) U – Blu‐ray: Compatible drive in 1.0% of headunits WW by 2019 (0% in 2011) U – HDD: Available on 1.1% of headunits WW by 2019 (7.6% in 2011) U – Flash card slot: Available on 25% of headunits WW by 2019 (8.3% in 2011) DDD
Source: Automotive Multimedia & Communications ‐ AMCS OEM Digital Radio Terrestrial and Satellite
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000 HD Radio 4,000
its (000's) DAB_ DM B
Un 3,000 Audio Sirius XM 2,000
1,000
0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 • Digital Radio Growth opportunity 2011 vs. 2019: • Sirius XM shipments will grow at a slow 1% CAGR between 2011 and 2019 Æ 6.1 million units in 2011 to 6.6 million units in 2018. •HD Radio shipments will expand at a CAGR rate of 27% between 2011 and 2019 Æ 690, 000 units in 2011 to 446.6 million units in 2019. •DAB shipments will increase at a CAGR rate of 43% between 2011 and 2019 Æ 300,000 units in 2011 to 5.2 million units in 2019. Source: Automotive Multimedia & Communications ‐ AMCS Must Have Infotainment – Western Europe Must Have Infotainment – U.S. Connecting the Car to the Internet
H?How? Why?
17 Connecting the Car to the Internet
How? Consumer’s phone EbdddEmbedded modem
18 Connecting the Car to the Internet Why? To sell content, applications and services To enhance safety and security (mandates) To enhance navigation To enhance driving To enhance in‐vehicl e enttitertainment To sell more cars To capture more of aftersales opportunity:
For OEMs, aftersales represents ~15% of revenue and 70% of profits 19 Connecting the Car to the Internet Other reasons to connect? Cost avoidance – limit warranty exposure Anticipate/diagnose system failures Superior customer service experience Changing ownership scenarios –ride sharing, car shiharing, lease, rent Alternative powertrain requirements –ie. EV charging New insurance models –usage‐based insurance ITS, traffic mgmt, V2X, tolling To sell more cars! 20 Connecting the Car to the Internet
How to connect? Easy way: embedded modem Hard way: customer’s phone
Reality: Nothing is easy Everything is expensive 21 Connecting the Car to the Internet
Customer’ s phone scenario: BYOC: Bring Your Own Connection Leverage customer’s data plan Enable access to customer’ s: Preferred apps, contacts, content, POIs, routes, social network Potentially superior network, connections EblEnable exitiisting mobile payments
22 Connecting the Car to the Internet
BYOC: The Downside Loss of customer control Supporting multipl e OSes Maintaining software APIs PidiProviding didrive‐safe in‐vehicl e itinterf aces Supporting third‐party navigation, voice recognition, ltilocation services
23 Barbarians in the Dashboard
24 GENIVI’s contribution to the discussion
Highlighted proliferation of open source software
Highlighted virtualization/hypervisor
25 GENIVI’s contribution to the discussion
Examples
26 Toyota Entune (Denso)
Open Bing MT.com IHR Table Nav AM/FM
UIEngine
Bus OS
TCP/IP Telematics WiFi Bluetooth Toyota Entune (Harman)
Open Bing MT.com IHR Table Nav AM/FM
Java Virtual Machine
Bus OS
TCP/IP Telematics WiFi Bluetooth Mentor Grapics
Infotainment Services: IP Bandwidth Segmentation
Mid/Low Value –Growing Market Interest High Value ‐ Growing Market Interest Weather, Stocks, data, News PAYD –User based Insurance Email Eco‐Driving Road tolling
Location based services EV Charging and billing
Internet radio Workflow Management/Fleet High Definition Traffic
Music Downldload Basic Traffic
Remote Diagnostics
Video Download Remote Door unlock/Heat
eCall ‐ Automatic Crash notification HD Video Download Stolen vehicle tracking High Bandwidth – High Cost Low Value ‐ Limited market interest Connectivity Suitability: Embedded
Tethered Source: Automotive Multimedia & Communications ‐ AMCS Emergence of Global Wireless Players Part I
¾ Telefonica • OnStar, Masternaut ¾ A ¾ Vodafone • Verizon ¾ A ¾ American Movil? China Unicom? AT&T? ¾ A ¾ New players: • Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon A role for MVNOs… ?? Source: Automotive Multimedia & Communications ‐ AMCS Emergence of Global Wireless Players Part II Next steps for carriers –What do OEMs want?
¾ Global SIM card: Regional provisioning ¾ Comprehensive asset management ¾ Vehicle diagnostics ¾ Software management ¾ Content management ¾ SiService‐fdfocused ownership paradigm ¾ Vehicle connection restructures OEM, dealer, customer relationships –different regions at different stages of this evolilution ¾ New ownership models will require connections – vehicle sharing etc.
?? 33 Source: Automotive Multimedia & Communications ‐ AMCS Status and Outlook for In‐vehicle Smartphone Connectivity Solutions
• Connecting…with the consumer!
Source: Automotive Multimedia & Communications ‐ AMCS Car to device connectivity: Many options…but no winning standard?
• MirrorLink (Toyota) •RealVNC(Jaguar) • Livio Connect (GM) •Aha Radio (Harman) (Honda, Subaru) • Choreo (Airbiquity) • Zypr (Pioneer) (Toyota/Scion) • AudiConnect • BMW ConnectedDrive •MyFord Touch • Entune/Touch&Go (Toyota) •MyLink(GM) • Uconnect (Chrysler) Source: Automotive Multimedia & Communications ‐ AMCS Car to device connectivity: Many options…but no winning standard?
• Uvo (Kia) • BlueLink (Hyundai) • Mbrace (Mercedes) • Blue&Me (Fiat) • HondaLink (Honda)
Source: Automotive Multimedia & Communications ‐ AMCS Two primary approaches have emerged
• MirrorLink – Approved apps, approved HMI framework, vehicle control •Content proxy – Smartphone as pass‐through for content with customized framework
•Both approaches will co‐exist; Both approaches are being adopted simultaneously to cope with different operating systems and wired and wireless interfaces
•Both approaches may require virtualization
Source: Automotive Multimedia & Communications ‐ AMCS Device and vehicle connectivity Issues OEM ‘Cloud’ Perspective
SYNC, MyFord Touch
MyLink, IntelliLink, CUE
Touch&Go, Entune, EnForm, Bespoke
mBrace 2
BMW Apps
Source: Automotive Multimedia & Communications ‐ AMCS Device and vehicle connectivity Issues Tier 1 ‘Cloud’ Perspective
Recently announced its Smart Access cloud platform, with its first product Next GATE shown at CTIA 2012. Next GATE is largely underwhelming, the product is not seamlessly integrated and does not represent a compelling or fresh take on the market. The product recalls the struggles that Clarion had with its MiND product Harman has worked with Toyota on many of its connectivity solutions to little avail. Harman acquired Aha Mobile but these solutions have not been compelling. Harman is working on Dock & Go with RinSpeed, but it appears there are too many solutions and too little direction. Pioneer first announced its PAIS system, which was later rebranded as ZYPR. ZYPR targets applications across the phone, tablet, car, and TV. While some lauded ZYPR as a potential open alternative to Siri, Pioneer does not have the market size or credibility to move the market.
Alpine’s approach has been different than other Tier Ones. Alpine has enlisted the help of unlikely new comer Chleon (former Nokia personal) for help with cloud connectivity. This approach could work, however it further confirms Alpine as reliable hardware manufacturer, a position that Tier One’s
are desperate to avoid. Source: Automotive Multimedia & Communications ‐ AMCS Nokia MirrorLink
Strong membership of OEMs, Tier Ones, and CE companies including Daimler GM, 9 Hyundai, Honda, PSA, Toyota, and VW. Daimler and Toyota have announced future solutions. Systems will be compatible 9 with all Symbian phones from last year and future Nokia Windows phones. Reduces the number of smartphone protocols an infotainment system has to support, 9 this is especially bflbeneficial for low‐end systems. Enables consumers to use applications more safely and lets car markers create apps 9 that can work on multiple smartphones. CCC support is only luke warm by many members. Many have joined but shown very 8 little commitment. HTC, LG, and Samsung do not appear particularly committed. The only operating system MirrorLink has secured is Symbian, which is legacy technology. 8 No commitment from Andiddroid, Apple, or MSFT is a huge hdlhurdle. Apple and Google typically do not like having to comply with standards set by others. OEMs are reluctant to cede “ownership” of the screen to smartphone makers and 3rd 8 party application makers. In the best case, a vetting or testing process must be created. 8 Nokia’s HMI focus made it unsuitable for GENIVI participation. Source: Automotive Multimedia & Communications ‐ AMCS Device Tethering to WiFi
Consumers can enjoy a connected solution without an additional subscription fee 9 from the OEM or TSP. Smartphones are increasingly fitted with Bluetooth Dial Up Network and Personal 9 Area Network profiles as well as A2DP, HFP, and PBAP. Tethering is becoming more essential as companies explore the integration of 9 applications bbdeyond navigation and Internet radio. WiFi hotspots are expensive in the US. Verizon charges an additional $20/month on 8 top of normal data charges for WiFi hotspot capability. WiFi hotspot technology in Europe varies from country to country and carrier to 8 carrier, though the capability is typically less than in the US. OEM may need to work with wireless carriers to create wholesale solutions, that 8 outline the extttent that dtdata will be consumed by the user in vehicl e. This tktakes time. Wireless carriers in both the US and Europe are currently reexamining how tethering fees should be structured. Some argue that they should be an extension of limited data plans where consumer’ s bandwidth is either throttled once a certain limit of data is used or ? where users are charged overage fees are a certain amount of data is used. Wireless carriers are watching the rollout of 4G networks and increasingly looking at the number of
connected tablets to create better monetization strategies. Source: Automotive Multimedia & Communications ‐ AMCS OEM Connectivity Features: ECU Connectivity (e.g. Ford SYNC)
40,000
Bluetooth 35,000
30,000 Wi f i 25,000
20,000 USB
15, 0 0 0 3.5 Mil Jack 10 , 0 0 0
5,000 Unit Shipment Tot al 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 In‐Vehicle Connectivity is a key growth area in • FtFeature Td/OtitTrend/Opportunity: 2011 vs. 2019 Infotainment – USB 2.0 Shipments +630%: 4.0 Mil to 29.3 Mil units (CAGR 28%) DDDDD – Bluetooth Shipments +540%: 4.3 Mil to 27.5 Mil units (CAGR 26%) DDDDD – Wi‐Fi Shipments +1700%: 141.4 Mil units to 25.3 Mil units (CAGR 43%) DDDDD – 3.5 Mil Jack Shipments +500%: 4.3 Mil to 26 Mil units (CAGR 25%) DDD
Source: Automotive Multimedia & Communications ‐ AMCS Connecting the Car to the Internet Embedded phone scenario: COB: Connection on Board Safety and securit y – ACN, SVR Complete control of Content, Application, Service (CAS) delivery experience Seamless integration of CAS with voice, touch, ppyhysical interfaces Control of billing and customer relationship Control of access to vehicle sensor data Potential for proprietary applications and
social networks – InkaNet walkie talkie 43 Connecting the Car to the Internet
COB: The Downside Monthly or annual subscription NtNot cust’tomer’s prefdferred carrier Limited data plan Wirel ess coverage/QOS Low priority for car purchasing
44 The Consumer Contradiction
Customer’ s Want a COB Experience from a BYOC Scenario!
What are Chinese car consumers sayyging?
45 Consumers in China Need Device Connectivity
• Smartphone connectivity becoming much more of a must‐have feature than in other regions – 50% consider access to smartphone apps a must‐have feature • CD player interest and usage similar to portable music player – Both usage and interest in portable music player connectivity similar to CD player Context Awareness Becoming Key Feature for Navigation Systems
•Predictive traffic and route predict ion are in the top 6 most‐ wanted features for navigation consumers in China.
•Consumers most interested in real‐time traffic and parking fin der ffteatures. – 59% of respondents thought real‐ time traffic and parking finders were must‐have features. –More than 50% of respondents in China thought lane assistance, predictive traffic, and POI search were must‐have features. Interest in Connected Services: China
• Consumers in China most interested in local weather •Social networking features show higher interest, but they are domain specific – Seeing friends locations and sharing their locations with friends instead of seeing social network feeds The Car Maker Contradiction
The OEM wants the vehicle data for vehicle/customer relationship management.
The OEM justifies embedding based on selling apps, content and services.
49 The Car Maker Contradiction II The OEM knows the customer wants to use his or her connected didevice and does not want to pay for additional subscription.
But the OEM also wants the vehicle data – which is harder to
achieve via smartphone. 50 Winning Connectivity Strategies
1. OEMs are increasingly providing hybrid connectivity – embedded + smartphone 2. The onset of Wi‐Fi Direct is enhancing the value of smartphone connections for a wider range of applications 3. Embedded modems enhanced by open APIs allow for aftersales application enhancements
Ultimate Goal: Maximum flexibility
51 Roger’ s Rules of Vehicle Connectivity ‐ #1
A system with embedded modem must first and foremost provide for automatic crash notification plus vehicle diagg/pgnostics/prognostics.
52 Roger’ s Rules of Vehicle Connectivity ‐ #2
Call centers should be focused on customer/vehicle relationship management – (not destination download!)
53 Roger’ s Rules of Vehicle Connectivity ‐ #3
Data intensive applications such as Wi‐Fi hotspot and mobile video should be enabled via customer’s phone and data plan.
54 Roger’ s Rules of Vehicle Connectivity ‐ #4
App stores should be left to Apple and Google. OEMs can offer a few car‐ specific apps (remote start, vehicle location, status, conditioning) but the on‐board store is a distraction.
55 Roger’ s Rules of Vehicle Connectivity ‐ #5
Smartphone integrations require dedicated drive‐safe in‐vehicle HMI – not screen replication – ie. Apple video out.
56 Roger’ s Rules of Vehicle Connectivity ‐ #6
Siri and Google voice solutions are not likely to be competitive with true automotive grade solutions from Nuance, AT&T, Iflytek, Xiaoi, etc.
57 Revisiting an Old Friend – InkaNet Gen 4?
58 InkaNet: An Exception to the Rules
InkaNet remains the most advanced telematics and iftiinfotainment ddlielivery plltfatform in the world: Android based Innovative social networking – walkie talkie App store Innovative data management – concierge via customer’s phone, SD card updates Multiple source music access Nat’l language recognition/dictation – iVoka Internet search –in‐dash video
59 InkaNet User Evaluation
60 Problems with InkaNet
Not on the CAN bus –no vehicle data, no probe enhthancement of traffi c ddtata, no CRM
Offers apps‐in‐dashboard experience – WRONG! – should use existing apps via phone
No one is paying! – Advertising strategy of the creator makes it challenging to charge for service – afdfraid of scaring off “b“subscrib ers” Æ OnStar has the same problem in China.
61 What about LTE?
IP‐based traffic data Streami ng audio contttent Hybrid (on‐board/off‐board) voice recognition Wideband (HD) voice – for enhanced recognition Low latency for safety applications
62 BMW ConnectedDrive personified in funny commercials [videos].wmv Connecting the Car to the Internet The Two Most Important Reasons to Connect Cars:
To sell more cars!
To increase aftersales revenue and profit
To save lives
64 Thank you!
Roger C. Lanctot Associate Director Global Automotive Practice Strategy Analytics [email protected] +1 (617) 614‐0714 Twitter: @rogermud