STRENGTHENING AFRICAN GOVERNANCE INDEX OF AFRICAN GOVERNANCE RESULTS AND RANKINGS 2009 Robert I. Rotberg and Rachel M. Gisselquist A Project of The Program on Intrastate Conflict and Conflict Resolution at The Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University & The World Peace Foundation This publication was created at the Program on Intrastate Conflict and Conflict Resolution at Harvard’s Kennedy School, under the direction of Robert I. Rotberg and Rachel M. Gisselquist. © The President and Fellows of Harvard College and Robert I. Rotberg Harvard Kennedy School 79 John F. Kennedy Street, Box 121 Cambridge, MA 02138 October 2009 i CONTENTS part i: overall results and rankings NEW IN THE 2009 INDEX OF AFRICAN GOVERNANCE v THE RESEARCH TEAM 1 I. THE MEANING OF GOVERNANCE: RANKING AFRICA 7 II. THE 2009 RESULTS: INDEX OF AFRICAN GOVERNANCE 15 III. MEASUREMENT, METHODS, AND MORE 25 A SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: A ROBUST MODEL TO MEASURE GOVERNANCE IN AFRICAN COUNTRIES 33 COUNTRY RESPONSES: 37 RWANDA part ii: categories of analysis I: SAFETY AND SECURITY 45 NATIONAL SECURITY 58 Government Involvement in Armed Conflicts Number of Battle-Deaths in Armed Conflicts Number of Civilian Deaths Due to One-Sided Violence Refugees and Asylum Seekers Originating From the Country Internally Displaced Persons Access to Small Arms and Light Weapons PUBLIC SAFETY 79 Level of Violent Crime (Based on Homicide Rates) RESEARCHER’S REPORT: GENDER-BASED VIOLENCE—APPROACHES TO MEASUREMENT (BY ADIBELI NDUKA-AGWU) ii ROTBERG & GISSELQUIST I Strengthening African Governance II: RULE OF LAW, TRANSPARENCY, AND CORRUPTION 97 RATIFICATION OF CRITICAL LEGAL NORMS 108 Ratification of Core International Human Rights Conventions International Sanctions Property Rights JUDICIAL INDEPENDENCE AND EFFICIENCY 117 Judicial Independence Efficiency of the Courts Number of Days to Settle a Contract Dispute CORRUPTION 129 Public Sector Corruption III: PARTICIPATION AND HUMAN RIGHTS 133 PARTICIPATION IN ELECTIONS 146 Free, Fair, and Competitive Elections Free and Fair Executive Elections Opposition Participation in Executive Elections Free and Fair Legislative Elections Opposition Participation in Legislative Elections RESPECT FOR CIVIL AND POLITICAL RIGHTS 154 Respect for Physical Integrity Rights Respect for Civil Rights Press Freedom Women’s Rights Women’s Economic Rights Women’s Political Rights Women’s Social Rights iii IV: SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY 171 WEALTH CREATION 186 GDP per Capita Based on PPP Economic Growth MACROECONOMIC STABILITY AND FINANCIAL INTEGRITY 192 Inflation Government Surplus/Deficits Reliability of Financial Institutions Business Environment (Number of Days to Start a Business) THE ARTERIES OF COMMERCE 201 Road Network Electricity Capacity Telephone Subscribers Internet Usage ENVIRONMENTAL SENSITIVITY 218 Environmental Performance Index V: HUMAN DEVELOPMENT 221 POVERTY 236 Poverty and Inequality Poverty Rate at National Poverty Line Poverty Rate at $1.25 per Person per Day Inequality (GINI index) iv ROTBERG & GISSELQUIST I Strengthening African Governance HEATH AND SANITATION 248 Life Expectancy at Birth (Years) Child Mortality Maternal Mortality Ratio Undernourishment Immunization Measles DPT HIV Prevalence Incidence of Tuberculosis Health Care Workforce Access to Doctors Access to Nurses Sanitation and Drinking Water Access to Improved Sanitation Facilities Access to Drinking Water EDUCATION 276 Adult Literacy Rate Adult Literacy Rate, Female Primary Education Completion Rate Primary Education Completion Rate, Female Progression to Secondary School Ratio of Girls to Boys in School Pupil-Teacher Ratio, Primary v new in the 2009 index of african governance 1. The Index of African Governance now includes detailed scores and rankings on all fifty-three African countries, adding assessment of the five North African countries to the forty-eight sub-Saharan African countries assessed in previous editions. 2. The Index now uses raw data collected by in-country affiliates in thirty-eight of the fifty-three countries of Africa. Where and when appropriate, the Index supplements its assessments of Africa through internationally comparable data with data collected by its own researchers in those countries. 3. The Index is now subject to a thorough sensitivity analysis, rigorously undertaken for the Index by an outside research team. 4. The Index is now capable of being displayed and its data arrayed in a variety of useful ways and places. 5. The 2009 Index continues the 2007 and 2008 Ibrahim Indexes of African Governance, using the methods pio- neered by Robert I. Rotberg and Rachel M. Gisselquist in those years. This is a continuation of the original Index. 6. The 2007 and 2008 Ibrahim Indexes, and the first four months of research on the 2009 Index were generously supported by the Mo Ibrahim Foundation. Since the end of 2008, there has been no official connection between the Mo Ibrahim Foundation and this Index. It is now backed by the World Peace Foundation of Cambridge, Massachusetts and remains based in the Program on Intrastate Conflict in the Harvard Kennedy School. For details on the first five new items above, please see the end of the first essay in this Index, “The Meaning of Governance: Ranking Africa.” vi ROTBERG & GISSELQUIST I Strengthening African Governance 1 THE RESEARCH TEAM 2009 The Index of African Governance is compiled and updated annually by a team of researchers at Harvard University and across Africa, under the leadership of Robert I. Rotberg and Rachel M. Gisselquist. The 2007 and 2008 editions of the Index were published as the Ibrahim Index of African Governance. In the first edition, published in 2007, Rotberg and Gisselquist set out the Index’s basic framework and theory of governance, building on earlier work by Rotberg. The Index and all of its data have been revised annually to reflect the latest research and best data currently available. The project has been advised by a distinguished Executive Council of African scholars and business leaders, whose names are listed below. Although based at Harvard’s Kennedy School, the Index of African Governance project is committed to African involvement—particularly of scholars and students—and to the transition of the project to African counterparts. The Index’s team, both at Harvard and in Africa, reflects that commitment. Since 2008, Rotberg and Gisselquist have built a team of research affiliates (institutions and individuals) throughout the continent. They have collaborated on the collection of basic data for the Index in thirty-eight countries. In 2009, affiliates in twenty-nine countries submitted data collection questionnaires. The 2009 Index also drew on data collection completed during 2007-2008 by research affiliates in nine additional countries. These research affiliates lend a wide range of experience; while most are in academia or national statistical agencies, others are from the NGO sector, in journalism, or have independent consulting backgrounds. Each year, this (growing) team of in-country researchers diligently collects official statistics and other information on a range of indicators from sources in their countries. Many of these in-country researchers, well-respected scholars and analysts, also share their insights on the reliability of the figures and the Index project more generally. As anyone who has conducted research in Africa will know, this task is far from straightforward: Many countries lack the resources to produce basic statistics in a timely way. Many others do not make public the information that they do collect. Although government agencies in some countries have provided extensive support for our project, in other countries the relevant agencies have cooperated less fully with our researchers. In addition to this team of in-country researchers, the Index project, from its inception, has worked with a talented and international group of graduate student researchers at Harvard, including African students from across the continent. This Harvard-based team provides assistance with quantitative analysis and with coding projects, compiles data from international sources, and conducts literature reviews and desk studies. Several of our Harvard research assistants have also contributed published papers to the Index. Finally, since 2008, the Index project has actively sought to build and deepen collaborative research with African academics and analysts. As part of this effort, the project in October 2008 held a workshop on the Ibrahim Index at Harvard (funded by the Mo Ibrahim Foundation and the World Peace Foundation). The workshop brought together for a week of discussions scholars from universities in Benin, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Mauritius, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, and Tanzania. Rotberg and Gisselquist have also met directly with other scholars during trips throughout the region to solicit feedback, to learn about the latest research on the continent, and to introduce the Index as a research and teaching tool. Rotberg and Gisselquist invite those interested in working with the Index project to contact them directly. They are especially interested in contacts from countries where the project currently lacks an in-country research affiliate. 2 ROTBERG & GISSELQUIST I Strengthening African Governance INDEX OF AFRICAN GOVERNANCE TEAM HARVARD TEAM Director: Robert I. Rotberg, Director of the Program on Intrastate Conflict in the Harvard Kennedy School and President of the World Peace Foundation Research Director: Rachel M. Gisselquist,