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Safecharge 3Rd January 2018 Place Your Bet on This Online PSP! TMT Fair Value 354P (Price 296.00P) BUY Coverage Initiated

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Safecharge 3Rd January 2018 Place Your Bet on This Online PSP! TMT Fair Value 354P (Price 296.00P) BUY Coverage Initiated INDEPENDENT RESEARCH SafeCharge 3rd January 2018 Place your bet on this online PSP! TMT Fair Value 354p (price 296.00p) BUY Coverage initiated Price and data as at close of 29th Dec. 2017 We are initiating coverage of SafeCharge with a Buy recommendation Bloomberg SCH LN and a FV of 354p. We are playing the end of the group's transition Reuters SCHS.L 12-month High / Low (p) 315.0 / 197.5 period with the overhaul of its customer portfolio and the start of a Market capitalisation (GBPm) 454 phase of expansion and diversification beyond gambling and the search Enterprise Value (BG estimates GBPm) 367 for acquisitions. We estimate that with fewer risky merchants in its Avg. 6m daily volume ('000 shares) 133.9 customer base, a change in size and more liquidity, the group should Free Float 29.5% 3y EPS CAGR 4.4% enter the radar screens of more investors. We view SafeCharge as a Gearing (12/16) -72% fledgling Wirecard. The share offers upside potential of 20%. Dividend yields (12/17e) 4.09% SafeCharge is a UK software company active in the payments field YE December 12/17e 12/18e 12/19e Revenue (USDm) 111.12 124.12 139.01 (FinTech). It is an online PSP, historically present in the gambling EBITA USDm) 28.6 31.4 35.3 segment (uniquely for regulated online betting and gambling) and forex Op.Margin (%) 25.8 25.3 25.4 trading (currency purchases via Internet). The group's main activities Diluted EPS (p) 0.18 0.19 0.21 EV/Sales 4.47x 4.00x 3.57x today are processing (cashier and gateway) and acquiring (after selling EV/EBITDA 15.9x 13.9x 12.3x third-party acquiring capacity it is now ramping up its own offer). Sales EV/EBITA 17.4x 15.8x 14.1x are fairly-well balanced between the three business units: sports & P/E 21.9x 20.8x 18.7x ROCE 59.7 61.4 64.4 leisure (online gambling), financial services (forex), and others. 320.5 The group is reaching the end of the process to clean out its customer 300.5 portfolio (favouring less risky Tier ones and hence better quality 280.5 customers) and is continuing its diversification outside gambling (airline 260.5 companies, online market places, automatic food/drink dispensers etc.). 240.5 Like many payments players, it would like to increase the volume of 220.5 transactions it handles (the business is fixed-cost, meaning that size 200.5 counts) both via organic growth and of course, acquisitions. We expect the 180.5 15/06/16 15/09/16 15/12/16 15/03/17 15/06/17 15/09/17 15/12/17 group to look at European PSPs as a priority, even though we are not SAFECHARGE INTL.GROUP SXX EUROPE 600 ruling out opportunist purchases (on our estimates, it could buy EBITDA of USD10m maximum, at a multiple of 25x, or ND/EBITDA of 3x). In terms of acquisitions, the share could attract more interest (size effect, possible dilution of Teddy Sagi in the capital and more liquidity). In this buoyant sector, investors are looking for new ideas since the bids underway on PaySafe, Worldpay and Nets. SafeCharge therefore offers a buy opportunity (recurring sales, very profitable growth, high FCF and net cash accounting for 20% of it capitalisation). Analyst: Sector Analyst Team: Richard-Maxime Beaudoux Thomas Coudry 33(0) 1.56.68.75.61 Gregory Ramirez [email protected] Dorian Terral Frédéric Yoboué r r SafeCharge Simplified Profit & Loss Account (USDm) 2014 2015 2016 2017e 2018e 2019e Revenues 76.9 99.8 104.1 111.1 124.1 139.0 Change (%) 78.3% 29.7% 4.3% 6.7% 11.7% 12.0% lfl change (%) ns 20.4% 11.0% 6.0% 11.4% 12.0% EBITDA 19.0 25.4 30.3 31.3 35.6 40.2 EBIT 17.8 22.2 26.1 26.9 30.0 33.9 Adjusted EBIT 22.1 26.6 28.5 28.6 31.4 35.3 Change (%) ns 20.4% 7.3% 0.3% 9.9% 12.2% Financial results (1.5) 0.57 1.9 1.5 0.64 0.58 Pre-Tax profits 16.3 22.7 28.0 28.4 30.7 34.5 Tax (1.9) 0.1 (1.5) (2.0) (2.5) (2.9) Net profit 14.4 22.9 26.6 27.1 28.9 32.3 Restated net profit 18.2 27.3 28.8 28.0 29.5 32.8 Change (%) ns 49.9% 5.6% (2.8%) 5.4% 11.2% Cash Flow Statement (USDm) Cash flow 16.3 22.7 28.0 30.8 33.8 37.8 Change in working capital 1.1 2.0 (3.0) (0.2) (0.4) (0.5) Capex, net (4.1) (7.1) (6.6) (8.3) (8.7) (9.7) Financial investments, net 0.0 (33.5) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Dividends (4.4) (14.6) (21.2) (25.2) (25.1) (28.1) Other 2.6 (1.8) 9.5 10.0 1.0 1.0 Net debt (146.5) (114.9) (115.4) (116.9) (117.5) (118.0) Free Cash flow 13.3 17.6 18.5 22.2 24.7 27.6 Balance Sheet (USDm) Net fixed assets 7.8 52.5 44.3 43.9 46.2 49.0 Company description Investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SafeCharge is UK company which is Deferred tax assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 part of the European independent Cash & equivalents 146.5 114.9 115.4 164.2 164.8 165.3 PSPs. It provides global omni-channel current assets 5.8 12.4 10.3 11.0 12.3 13.8 Other assets 1.1 2.4 2.9 3.1 3.5 3.9 payments services from card acquiring Total assets 161.1 182 173 222 227 232 to payment processing and checkout, L & ST Debt 0.0 0.0 0.0 47.3 47.3 47.3 all underpinned by advanced risk Provisions 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 management solutions. This fully Deffered tax liabilities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 proprietary payment platform Others liabilities 9.8 14.6 12.2 13.0 14.4 16.1 Shareholders' equity 151.2 167.3 160.5 161.7 164.8 168.2 connects directly to all major payment Total Liabilities 161.1 182.2 172.9 222.3 226.8 232.0 card schemes including Visa, Capital employed 4.7 52.5 45.1 44.8 47.3 50.3 MasterCard, American Express and Ratios China Union Pay as well as over 150 Operating margin 28.68 26.61 27.38 25.75 25.33 25.38 local payment methods. Tax rate 11.41 -0.41 6.92 7.00 8.00 8.50 Net margin 18.76 22.90 25.50 23.80 22.74 22.71 ROE (after tax) 9.55 13.66 16.55 16.75 17.54 19.21 ROCE (after tax) 429 50.88 60.09 59.68 61.36 64.41 Gearing (96.90) (68.65) (71.88) (72.31) (71.29) (70.11) Pay out ratio 78.66 76.40 95.08 92.80 97.28 97.40 Number of shares, diluted 139,158 154,515 153,296 153,296 153,296 153,296 Data per Share (pence) EPS 0.10 0.15 0.17 0.18 0.19 0.21 Restated EPS 0.13 0.18 0.19 0.18 0.19 0.21 % change ns 35.0% 6.5% (2.8%) 5.4% 11.2% BVPS 1.09 1.08 1.05 1.06 1.08 1.11 Operating cash flows 0.12 0.15 0.18 0.20 0.22 0.25 FCF 0.10 0.11 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18 Net dividend 0.08 0.11 0.16 0.16 0.18 0.21 Source: Company Data; Bryan, Garnier & Co ests. 2 SafeCharge Table of contents 1. Investment Case ...........................................................................................................................................4 2. An undervalued online PSP .......................................................................................................................5 2.1. DCF: 372p .............................................................................................................................5 2.2. Peer comparison: 336p ........................................................................................................7 3. SafeCharge: a pure online player ...............................................................................................................9 3.1. From a PlayTech subsidiary to an online PSP ................................................................ 9 3.1.1. Origins of the group ............................................................................................................9 3.1.2. Development of the offer and sector exposure .............................................................. 9 3.1.3. Flotation and changes in shareholding structure ......................................................... 10 3.2. Understanding SafeCharge today ................................................................................... 11 3.2.1. General presentation of the group ................................................................................. 11 3.2.2. Description of main businesses ...................................................................................... 13 3.2.3. Example of an online card transaction .......................................................................... 15 4. SafeCharge: a Wirecard in the making .................................................................................................. 16 4.1. Solid fundamentals ............................................................................................................ 16 4.1.1. Reporting similar to the majority of European PSPs .................................................. 16 4.1.2. Among the best fundamentals in the sector ................................................................. 17 4.1.3. 2017-2020e prospects ....................................................................................................... 17 4.2. What themes can we play via SafeCharge? ................................................................... 24 4.2.1. Growth in electronic payments ....................................................................................... 24 4.2.2. Promising outlook for e-commerce ............................................................................... 25 4.2.3. Promising outlook in m-commerce ............................................................................... 26 4.2.4. The rising need for security, especially over the internet ........................................... 26 4.2.5. Appetite for omnichannel offers .................................................................................... 27 4.2.6. Outsourcing of banking payment activities .................................................................. 28 4.2.7. Further consolidation in the sector ................................................................................ 28 5.
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